Back to the combine! It's better than Christmas!

Last Thursday night's NFL Total Access was our first broadcast from combine in Indianapolis.  That is a significant significator.  It's the official start of the NFL draft season.  It's the unofficial start of the NFL business season also.

Love it!

I was pretty excited when I saw that the gang had been fully reassembled:  Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly, Charles Davis, Mike Lombardi, et al.  We'll be seeing Bucky Brooks and Corey Chavis soon also, I am sure.  I had heard rumors that Charley Casserly had signed exclusively with CBS Sports, and I was worried we wouldn't be seeing him on the NFL Network this year.  It is a good thing that rumor was false.  It wouldn't be the same without him.

It is so damn good to see you guys again!  You have no idea.  I was going to blog on this subject Thursday night, but I was a little preoccupied with prep for my next surgery on Feb 28, and a number of other mundane household subjects.

Sometimes I get a good feeling.  I get a feeling that I never, never, never had before.  I gotta feeling that this is going to be a really good draft.  The crop looks bountiful.  The crop looks good.  I am confident that we have some franchise changing players scattered across the top of this draft.  I am sure some of these kids will make it to the Hall of Fame.  It won't surprise me when they do.

Last year I complained bitterly about the poor quality of the seniors, the QBs and the offensive linemen.  I didn't like the Linebackers either.  Von Miller was the sole exception, and one of the three most exciting players in the Draft last year.

2011 was a poor draft year.  This is not the case in 2012.  This is a PH PHAT draft class.  The prospects look damn good to me thus far.  I am excited.

Speaking of Charley, he had the first Mock draft of the combine last night, and I think he pretty well nailed it.  Charley's list looked like this

1. Colts:  Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2. Browns (from Rams):  Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
3. Vikings:  Matt Kalil OLT USC 
4. Rams (from Browns): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
5. Bucs:  Trent Richardson RB Alabama
6. Redskins:  Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples DE UNC
8. Dolphins:  Riley Reiff OT Iowa
9. Panthers:  Michael Brockers DT LSU
10. Bills:  Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama

Most of the others felt he nailed it too.  The most critical critique came from Coach Brian Billick, who said "Charley's got 9 out of the top 10 players, and 6 in the right spot, so he's only wrong by 4.  That's pretty good!"

I would say it's probably a little more accurate than that.   What are the points of disputation here?  I think they are as follows:

1. The Redskins won't take Morris Claiborne
2. The Bucs will take Morris Claiborne one spot earlier
3. The Bucs won't take Trent Richardson. They already have a damn good power-back in LeGarrette Blount.
4. The Redskins won't go quietly into the good night without a QB in this draft.  Rumor has it that they are adamant about getting Robert Griffin III.  Charley is presuming the Rams will chose to drop back just a couple of steps to gain some extra picks and still get our man (Justin Blackmon) a little bit cheaper.  I think that's a pretty good guess.  I can't see our team passing on some extra picks, but we won't want to lose Justin Blackmon either.  Most believe we would be reaching for him at the #2 pick, based on our critical need.  This is probably and accurate assessment of the situation.
5. It is questionable whether the Dolphins would take another tackle so high in the draft when they already have the best OLT in all of football.  Riley Reiff would be relegated to right tackle duties, and generally, you don't take a right tackle so high.  Charley has said this himself.  I do understand the logic, though. Riley Reiff would seem to be the perfect bookend companion and counterpart to Jake Long.  If you get Peyton Manning in Miami, you might want to make this pick.  It will be a very tempting choice if Manning comes to town.
6. Some would dispute the Bills taking Courtney Upshaw, but the more I think about it, the more I think it is the perfect fit.  The Bills play a 3-4 defense and they need a pass-rushing elephant linebacker.  There is none better in 2012 draft than Courtney Upshaw.  He is an ideal choice for their needs and scheme.  Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I think he would go great with Marcell Dareus.  Wait... hasn't that been tried?  Did that workout once before?
7. Many of us are still questioning whether Trent Richardson will wind up going so high in the draft.  It's not that he's unworthy of the pick, he is a very worthy dude, but rather the fact that the RB position is so deeply deprecated in the modern NFL.  Most GMs just don't believe that you take an RB so high in the draft.  As always, it will only take one GM to make it happen, tho.

I look forward to many more of these blog posts as the Draft season continues.

Jamie Dukes and Philip Rivers: Opposites attract.

I'm going to start this blog in a somewhat strange way: With a tale about my dad. My dad has been divorced for about two years now, and recently he has been thinking about re-entering the market. Believe it or not, market conditions are pretty good for an old man.

Since I have been on an astrology kick lately, he asked me what sort of woman he aught to go after. My dad just happens to be a Sagittarius, so I told him that his strongest attraction would be to a Gemini woman. You see, Gemini and Sagittarius are 180 degree opposites. Geminis are born in late may (right now) and June. Sagittarians are born in late November and early December. They are half a year away from each other.

Opposites attract. Opposites have the most powerful attraction. Negatively charged magnets go after positively charged magnets. High Ph. goes after low Ph. Heat seeks cold. Air fills a vacuum. Negatively charged electrons orbit around positively charged protons. We're talking about physical laws here folks. There is some real science behind this theory folks.

Pop wasn't too pleased with that answer. He had recently had a bad experience with a Gemini woman he had high hopes for. The mere fact that he had had this experience and high hopes was proof positive of the theory, but he wasn't prepared to hear this. Of course, I understood him completely. I have suffered these disappointed with my opposite numbers as well.

A couple hours later, after grilling with some friends, the two of us are watching a corny but fun cult comedy called Highway to Hell (1991) brought to you by Stiller Clan (Jerry, Ben, Amy and mama Anne Meara). Suddenly, an actress named Pamela Gidley makes her entrance. My dad sits up sharply and has an instant synastry reaction. He immediately asks "Who's that girl!" I whup out my trusty Thunderbolt and look her up on the imdb.com app.

I immediately crack up laughing "Guess what, Pop? You just reacted big-time to a Gemini woman. Pamela Gidley was born June 11, 1965 in Methuen, Mass." He looked a little disconcerted. Maybe the magic works after all?

Now let's move on to the NFL Network. Rich Eisen asks Jamie Dukes and Warren Sapp who should be favored to win the AFC West in 2011... presuming there is a 2011.

[Incidentally, Dukes is a Gemini and Sapp is a Sagittarius. They work very well together despite being on opposite sides of the line and the Zodiac.]

Immeidately, Dukes declares the San Diego Chargers. I immediately bust up laughing. Dukes is a broken record on this subject. Rich Eisen challenges him sharply, asking Dukes to justify his statement. Like me, Rich Eisen just doesn't believe in the Chargers anymore. I don't know how you can believe in the Chargers. I think they are ripe for the wheels to fall off in 2011. If you ask me, they are clearly on the downslope.

Dukes centers his faith in the Chargers upon the very person of Christ Jesus... er... Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers is the marquee player and the only franchise QB in that entire division. Philip Rivers is the guarantor of the Chargers' supremacy in the AFC West. Rich wasn't buying it. Neither was I.

Why is Jamie Dukes to irrefutably sold on Philip Rivers that he believes the guy can single-handedly win the AFC West? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Jamie Dukes was born on June 14, 1964 and Philip Rivers was born on December 8, 1981. Jamie is a Gemini and Philip is a Sagittarius. There is a powerful oppositional affinity there folks.

Now, Philip has plenty of merit. This guy consistently ranks as one of the top passers in the league. He's a hell of a good leader too. Dukes isn't just pissing in the wind when he says this is a marquee QB. However, most of the rest of us are not so enamored with the guy that we think he can do it all by himself as the rest of the franchise falls down around his ears. Jamie is and does.

So are you saying that Jamie Dukes's predictions for the Chargers is based entirely on an irrational confidence in Philip Rivers born out of oppositional affinity? Yep, that's precisely what I am saying. It's completely irrational to believe Philip Rivers can win the AFC West single handed. Jamie thinks Philip can win it single-handed due to oppositional affinity.

I, too, know the problems of oppositional affinity. When the Steelers called the Rams trying to deal Ben Roethlisberger, I was just about ready to listen to that deal. Ben just happens to be a Pisces and I happen to be a Virgo.

Several times during this draft season, I stiffled myself as I was preparing to sing the praises of Christian Ponder. He happens to be a Pisces also. I still think Ponder can turn into a heck of a good QB, but as I write that line, I am a little concerned that I may be biased due to oppositional affinity. I also happened to be the guy who spear-headed the Draft Trent Dilfer campaign in St. Louis back in 1994. Yep, Trent is not just from my home-town college, he's also a Pisces.

Oppositional affinity is powerful thing folks. This is nothing to be trifled with or dismissed easily. Nobody will excite, disappoint, overjoy, or infuriate you more than your opposite number from around the other side of the year. They get under you skin big time.

Just ask Terry Bradshaw why Lynn Swann was his favorite receiver when he had John Stallworth on the other side.

The 49ers? Bah! What rubbish!

Egads, you guys at the NFL Network are going to force me to unmask you as a marketing conspiracy. I would rather allow you to continue masquerading as a expert analysts giving unbiased information, but... allas, you are pissing me off with with this bullshit you pass off as logic and evidence.

Lately it has become a vogue meme to suggest that the 49ers are going to win the NFC West... Yes those Busch League 49ers are supposed to win the west again. That's the team owned by a woman named Denise. I know she pushes her son out in front of her and attempts to hide, but you know goddamn well Denise owns the team. Denise is a lousy, lousy owner; one of the worst in the league to be frank with you. She just doesn't have a clue.

The 49er theory so is patently preposterous, it can only be broadcast because the NFL Network is a marketing department of the NFL. You see, the 49er organization called and said they need help moving tickets. Ticket sales are pretty poor right now. The fans know what to expect. They are not excited. Since the NFL Network is a 100% wholly owned subsidiary, they are obligated to help teams implement their marketing strategy.

Folks, let's be absolutely clear about something: 2010 was the year the tires fell off the 49er rebuilding project. This is now a failed group, particularly on offense. There is hope for the defense, but they were not the elite group they were supposed to be last season.

Rather than this being the year Alex Smith turned the corner, 2010 was the year he went bust to the uttermost farthing. After 6 full years of basically nothing, it is impossible to pretend that this guy is a franchise QB or that he is going to turn the corner. Yet the 49ers are offering him a 1 year contract, and I'll bet you that they are going to try to roll with him in 2011.

You can just forget about the entire 2011 campaign if they go forward with this plan.

Maybe they are planing to lay-down and throw whatever comes of this lockout season in an effort to obtain Andrew Luck? Think about it folks. If they do lay-down, you sure as hell are going to look like a fucking fool for picking them. Think about it folks. You have a professional reputation to protect. You better think twice before picking these guys.

Rather than 2010 being the year that Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree finally developed chemistry, camaraderie and esprit de corp, you once again saw Mike Singletary drag them off by the scruff of the neck to upbraid them for fighting with one another on the practice field. Gore fights with Davis and critiques him sharply in the news media. Davis and Crabtree cuss each other out almost every practice, and they sometimes tie into each other.

This is an offensive unit with shit for chemistry. I am talking about rock-bottom levels of offensive chemistry. You need to break these bums up because they cannot play together. You need to ship them off for whatever you can get for them. You need to execute a full skill position rebuild on offense.

You might well have done that with new coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm, but then the lockout fucked you in the ass, didn't it?

But isn't Gore the reason they will win the NFC West? Folks, Gore has a pair of surgically reconstructed knees. Notice I said reconstructed, not repaired. He had full reconstruction on both knees. In addition to this, his 2010 season was cut short by a microfracture in his hip. If that weren't enough for you, Gore now has 7 full years in the NFL. The life expectancy of a running back is about 4 years. How much rubber do you think he has left on the tires?

Plain and simple: You are looking at a lost year. Good news though, you might be able to select Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft... if there is one.

Memo to the NFL Network: If you don't quit with the ticket-pushing lies, I am going to expose you, hardcore. I am not going to be nice about it either. I'm going to call you out by name an annihilate your fallacious logic and false facts.

So quarterbacks are good if they are drafted in the first round?

Intro

You know how much I love the NFL Network. These guys are my evening house guests every night. Unfortunately, I am going to have to take exception to one big logical fallacy I have heard repeatedly in recent days. This fallacy is posed as a question and it goes a little bit like this:

“If the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are so bad, why are so many of them going to be drafted in the first round?”

The answers are incredibly obvious, but let’s do a bit of reductio ad absurdum just for fun. You know I just loved that reductio ad absurdum to death. This is the force that made my UCLA degree worth more than $0.25 thimble full of coffee. It’s more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Implicit within the NFL Network’s argument are the following key points:

• A player must be good to be taken in the first round.
• Conversely, if a player is taken in the first round, he must be good.
• If a bunch of teams are considering a QB in the first round, they must be impressed by the good quality of this year’s crop.
• If a bunch of QBs go in the first round, it must be a good QB year.

Fallacious! Fallacious! Fallacious! This is bogus false reasoning, and completely erroneous also. Fallacious reasoning doesn’t always guarantee a false conclusion; it just means your logic is bad. In this case, the logic is bad and the conclusion is absolutely false. What is the real story?

Rebuttal

Rather than simply stating the obvious let’s do this catechistically. I’ll phrase my answers as questions.

1. If Andrew Luck had come out of Stanford this year, who would be the #1 QB in the 2011 draft?
2. How many teams need a QB this year?
3. If we had had a normal free agency/trade period would all of these teams be in need of QB as we approach the draft?
4. If free agent QBs such as Mark Bulger had flown free, would the Cardinals be looking for a QB right now?
5. If QBs such as Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb were on the trading block, would the Vikings and 49ers be looking for a QB right now?
6. If Vince Young had been released, would QB demand in this draft be absolutely unchanged?
7. If Carson Palmer (whose Bengal jersey I am wearing right now) had not abruptly pulled up stakes and retired, do you think the Bengals would use the #4 pick for QB… if they get a shot at it?
8. There are several brand-new first year coaches who have no quarterback to speak of. Several are in near-rebuilding situations. Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak and Huge Jackson are in this situation. {Incidentally, the Raiders need a QB, and they don’t want to admit it.} Would QB demand be unchanged if you didn’t have new coaches, hoping for a good start?
9. Do you think the lockout and lack of free agency has had zero impact on club plans in the 2011 draft?

The Solution Set

Folks we live in a time of remarkable NFL crisis. About 10-12 teams need a QB. There is a chronic and serious quarterback shortage in the land. The handful of available (and competent) QBs are quite literally locked out of reach of the needy beggars who want them. The desperation is building. It is palpable and it is visceral.

Against all common sense, many teams are considering the chicken switch (reaching for a 2^nd rounder in the 1^st), but this does not prove that this is a good QB class. Taking an undraftable red-light kid in the 1^st round is not indication that this is a good year. The fact that desperate fools are going to hit the chicken switch is no measure of talent.

Brian Baldinger is quite correct when he says that you’re taking a big risk if you wait for the second round. There might not be anything there for you when the time arrives. Certainly, you will curse the football gods if this happens to you. However, just a few years down the road, you may be counting this event as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

My Perspective

I wouldn’t take Ryan Mallett. I wouldn’t take Cam Newton. I would take Blaine Gabbert, but the price is outlandish. If he hits, it will look like genius. I love second round QBs, but I like my 2^nd rounders in the 2^nd round; not the first. I would love to get Christian Ponder in the 2^nd. I would love to get Andy Dalton in the 2^nd. If you give me Dalton in the 3^rd, I’m going to jump through the roof. I am intrigued by Colin Kaepernick, or are we calling him Optimus Prime now?

Charnak and the Wonderlic have scared me regarding my favorite kid Jake Locker. Nevertheless, I would still take the risk on this kid. I think Jake Locker is a lot better than Kyle Boller.

Quick memo to the NFL Network, Let's talk with Mike Holmgren

So, I had a little idea last night: Let's see Mike Holmgren on NFL Total Access & Path to the Draft in a week or so. Break the piggy bank, send out the private jet, pick him up in Cleveland and bring him to Los Angeles. Put him up in the Hotel Intercontinental, and have the limmo bring him in.

What are his qualifications?

1. He was a USC quarterback and a teammate of O.J. Simpson back in the day
2. He was drafted in the 8th round of the 1970 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals.
3. He coached at BYU where they ran one hell of a passing attack
4. He was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers during their best years.
5. He was once head coach of the Packers, restoring them to them to an elite status with a championship.
6. He was once the head coach of the Seahawks where they should have won the Super Bowl if the refs hadn't raped them.
7. He is a Gemini with a real bad thing for Libra quarterbacks. Steve Young, Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck are all Libras. The top QB in this 2011 draft happens to be a Libra, incidentally.
8. Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker happens to be Geminis. Jake Locker and Mike Holmgren just happen to share the same birthday. What a co-inky-dinky!
9. He happens to be the world's foremost authority on the QB position, having developed dudes like Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, and others. You might want to give him a partial credit for Kurt Warner.
10. He just happens to be the President of the Cleveland Browns.

Obviously this guy has a lot of history. I think it would be most illuminating to have Mike Holmgren on the show, and ask him all kinds of questions about the QBs in this draft. He is the world's foremost authority on the subject, you know. I think it would be very interesting to get his take on this QB class.

Last year, Holmgren was one of the few guys who tweaked on Clausen... and admitted it. I was another. I would like to hear his take on guys like Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, etc.

My predictions? He will say pretty flattering things about Blaine Gabbert. Cam Newton? Not so much. Gabbert is pretty much Holmgren's kind of a guy. If he offers any critique it will be something like "The price is too high. He costs too much."

What about Cam? Well... I'll bet Cam's not exactly Mike's kind of a guy.

You know, we just had this ugly PR flap regarding the character assessment of Cam Newton, and I think it would be a good thing to refocus the debate on mechanics, skills, achievement, and potential. What better guy to help us with this than Mike Holmgren?

Aside from talking quarterbacks, you can do the state of the franchise on the Cleveland Browns with Mike's help. You can put the Browns on the clock with Mike's help. You can also discus the present labor strife with an actual president of an actual franchise. This would be good, because this is a dude who should know something.

Let's make it happen!

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

Farewell, Carson Palmer

So I am wearing my Carson Palmer #9 Bengals Jersey today in honor of Carson Palmer's official retirement. If he hasn't already filed retirement papers with NFL HQ, it's coming soon, despite the looming lockout.

All sources on the NFL Network indicate that Carson is not bluffing. He has between $75-80 million in the bank, he does not have to pay any of those dollars back if he retires, and they are pretty sure he will never play in a Bengals uniform again. Those same sources indicate that the owner/president Mike Brown is not bluffing either. He will not deal Carson because it would set a bad precedent for the future. Brown says he wishes Carson well in his retirement, and plans to move on.

Just how far along does Mike Brown plan to move? The NFL Network reports that the Bengals are making plans to draft a QB in the 2011 draft. This doesn't necessarily mean they will use the #4 pick on QB, but I would bet you money they will in the end. Scratch Cincinnati off your list of landing spots for A.J. Green and Julio Jones. I doubt they are taking a WR with the #4 overall pick. They're going to take a QB; Blaine Gabbert I reckon.

Consider the Bengals draft in 2011. Prior to the crystallization of Carson Palmer's position, experts believed that the Bengals were the first team on the big-board extremely likely to (a) stand pat, and (b) select an offensive player, (c) select A.J. Green. This was the spot where A.J. Green was projected to go. Not now, baby.

You could argue that it was never the case in the first place. Why?

The Bengals have a poor passing game. Of this there can be no doubt. This has been the case for several years now. However, the Bengals have had a pretty good receiver corp, plus or minus 2009. They have a pretty good receiver corp as they enter the 2011 season. They have some Divas, but these are Divas with hands. If this be the case, why then do they have a poor passing game?

Most of us who watch football understand that Carson Palmer has been way off-target and in decline over these past several years. Palmer's accuracy, velocity, reads, and decision making have been questionable. The onus is on Carson Palmer, not the receivers. This makes Palmer's current off-season trade demand even more bizarre. Who wants him? I don't. I'm not trading for him.

Even in a magic world where there is no labor-strife with Carson Palmer, selecting A.J. Green rather than Blaine Gabbert would be a serious strategic blunder for the Bengals. Mike Brown needs to be thinking about his next-gen QB, not another receiver.

Over and against my QB theory is the question of whether Bengals can be expected to make a rational choice in the draft? Can they? I don't know. Sometimes Mike Brown makes very shrewd moves. Sometimes he doesn't. All signs do indicate that Mike Brown is preparing to select a QB in this draft.

The Bengals could select B.J. Green, or they might select Julio Jones. Both receivers are likely to be on the board when their number comes up. Neither pick is advisable. They should select Blaine Gabbert. Logically, this is the spot where Gabbert should go.

Well... we can get him now

The NFL Network's very own Charlie Casserly broke news yesterday of vital interest to Ram-fans every where. He informed us that Julio Jones executed his amazing combine workout on a broken foot. The break is now the worse for wear.

Mark J. Miller of Yahoo Sports, confirmed that Julio needs surgery, and will have a screw inserted in his foot. This procedure carries an 8-week rehab time. The operation will pretty well nix any potential pro-day or private workouts for any team in the run up to the draft.

Remember, it's already March 1, and the NFL Draft is April 28. That's just about 8 weeks give or take a couple of days.

It will also place the medical flag on his file.

Personally, I don't give a damn about the medical flag. I am all the more impressed that Julio ran 4.39 and jumped 11'3". My jaw dropped to the floor when I heard and read these reports. I am pretty well settled that this is our guy. I still have some lingering questions about chemistry, though.

I know this is going to sound kinda funny, and I regret saying this, but this is great news for Ram fans. Julio can take solace in the probability that this may be the best thing that ever happened to him. If things work out as we suspect, he gets to go to a team with a hot young quarterback that's desperate for a #1 receiver. We also happen to have an OC who is regarded as hot property. The conditions are set for his success.

How does 100 receptions and 18 touchdowns in your rookie year sound to you, Julio?

It was good to see Torry Holt on NFL Total Access last night

Torry Holt made a guest appearance on NFL Total Access over the course of the past two days, perhaps trying out for a new position he may eventually take. I sure hope we resign him in St. Louis. We need him. I don't understand why we released him in the first place, and it is not as if we have an abundance of weapons to work with offensively. Politics will probably keep him from rejoining the team, but I would take him back in a heart beat if I was the GM.

The most interesting feature of Torry's appearance was his Mock Draft. I had no idea that Torry was a draftnick to any degree whatsoever. It turns out that the two of us saw eye-to-eye on all points except one or two. What were these points:

1. The Rams should not and will not select a QB with the #1 pick.
2. Holt says we will select Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma, not Sam Bradford of Oklahoma.
3. McCoy will be the selection because coach Spagnuolo is a defensive coordinator at heart, and wants to improve the speed of the DL.
4. Holt is concerned about the double injury and surgical repair of Bradford's throwing shoulder
5. Holt clearly stated that the Rams offensive line does not do a good job of protecting the QB, and putting and injury prone rookie behind that line is very bad idea.
6. Holt did not have any Quarterback going in the top 10 picks in this year's draft.
7. When called on this point, Holt answered that he did not believe either of the two candidates were worthy of being drafted in the top 10.
8. When Fran Charles pressed him on the question of the Rams selecting a QB, Torry said "Not this year."
9. When asked who would be the quarterback in St. Louis, Holt insisted that Bulger is a fully qualified franchise quarterback. The Rams' focus should be on getting Marc his confidence back.
10. And now for the bad one... Torry said that if he were going to draft a QB #1 overall, it would not be Bradford, but Clausen.

Egads no! I would let Torry draft if he were planning to take Gerald McCoy but I would jerk the rains in if he were going to reach for Clausen. No, no, no, no to Clausen. This is the one point where Torry and I really part company.

I considered Torry's words carefully, because it accords with some of my ruminations. I know for a fact that Coach Spags was most impressed with McCoy. He made no secret of this fact, saying so to the St. Louis press. Since this time, Ndomukong Suh has been mildly annoyed whenever the name Steve Spagnuolo comes up. I get the impression, Ndamukong Suh believes he will be passed over because Steve likes McCoy better. Torry's prediction of McCoy is in-line with Spagnuolo's thinking. If there is a risk here, it lies only in the bet that Spagnuolo will have his way. Certainly, both Mike Mayock and Charlie Casserly believe McCoy is better that Suh. I am in the uncomfortable position of concurring with Mel Kiper Jr's take. I like Suh.

Certainly, I will not be pissed off if we take McCoy. Rather, I will be entirely relieved. I believe Chris Long & Adam Carriker will prosper next to McCoy. That is important to me. I haven't said much about Gerald McCoy, but I do believe he is totally worthy candidate. McCoy has no real history of injuries, as do Suh and Bradford, and he is a performer.

If I am skeptical of McCoy, it's only because he has been in an attack scheme at Oklahoma. He has been told to shoot the gaps on every play. They ordered him to penetrate the backfield with abandon. Ergo McCoy looks like the more disruptive force. Put McCoy in a conservative scheme like Nebraska, and he won't look like that massively disruptive force. Remember, I know little something about this. I am a nose tackle. I believe Suh can shoot the gaps and be a disruptive force just like McCoy. Suh has had the disadvantage of coming from a sit-and-read scheme at Nebraska. Suh has not been allowed to penetrate and disrupt on every play. However, this is no big deal. All you have to do is tell Suh to attack and he will do what McCoy does. Maybe even a little bit more.

What are the odds that all teams in the top 10 pass on a QB? I would say slim and none. If Bradford falls to the Redskins, I find it difficult to believe they will pass. If Bradford falls to the Browns, I find it almost impossible to believe they will pass. If Bradford falls to the Bills, I think there is no doubt they will take him. It is possible that the Rams and Skins will pass, but after that, I think Bradford goes off the board to Cleveland.

I do think Clausen will fall out of the top 10... if any of these teams know what's good for them... which is unlikely. Regrettably, I could see the Bills wasting more years on Clausen. That would be unfortunate. I don't like that idea at all.

But I have evaded the key question: Will the Rams pass on Sam Bradford. I really hope so. This is nothing against Sam Bradford. As I have said many times, I think he is a terrific kid with a bright future ahead of him... as long as he has a steel reinforced concrete offensive line. This line does not exist in St. Louis. We are not ready to select a starting rookie QB. We need to go for a QB in a lower round, and develop him for year or two, until the line is read. You know who I am talking about.

What then are the Rams doing interviewing Bradford, Clausen, McCoy and Suh? Why does the entire organization signal Bradford? I have ruminated on this many, many hours. I think think the answer is three fold.

1. Has the organization signaled Bradford? Not precisely. They are seriously evaluating him, but there has been no super-provocative move, other than skipping Florida's ProDay. That was provocative, but not super-provocative. What you have is a case where a lot of media experts are signalling Bradford.
2. By interviewing all four, and opening preliminary negotiations with all four, the Rams may be attempting to drive a certain kind of a bidding war. They may be trying to find out which player will sign the cheapest. Good luck with this. You may save a milion, or two. You may also still windup spending $60m.
3. By allowing the speculation on Bradford, and by hearting it up a bid, the Rams may be igniting a match under Holmgren & Shanahan's asses. They may yet smoke out an interest in Sam Bradford and force a trade. Holmgren has already told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he is inclined to make a trade to obtain Sam Bradford.

Anyhow, that is my two cents. Torry Holt's prediction that the Rams will select McCoy is solid. It could happen. We might even select McCoy and McCoy, going for two real McCoys in two rounds. It could happen.

The remarkable foolishness of the Philly fans

Donovan McNabb rumors were all the rage last night on ESPN & the NFL Network. A full consideration of these rumors will lead you to a very humorous new understanding semi-spoiled, semi-desperate, and not too technically astute football fans. Before continuing on with the facts let me qualify my last statement:

• The Eagle fans are semi-spoiled because the Eagles have been consistent winners in one of the toughest divisions in football for the past 9 seasons. During this time, they gone to the NFC title game 5 times, and to the Super Bowl once.
• The Eagle fans are semi-desperate because they do not believe these quality years will continue for much longer before the wheels fall off the bus. They maintain that Donovan McNabb is the absolute limiting factor holding this team back. They are anxious to transition now, and take a shot at the Super Bowl now, before the quality years end.
• The Eagle fans are not particularly astute. They don't seem to realize that Andy Reid managed a pretty remarkable makeover of the Eagle offense during the past two drafts. The defense needs some work in this draft, but the Eagles are well set for some time to come. I do not see their quality years ending soon... unless they do something stupid.
• If the Eagle fans were a bit more astute, they would realize that the Eagles took a step back in 2009 because of the death of Jim Johnson, and the loss of Dawkins. The defense was the problem in 2009.

So where is the humor in this story? There isn't much if you are Donovan McNabb, however, if you are a marginally disinterested party, this story is a funny tale of irrationality and incoherence mixed with sports passion. Consider the logic of the following set of propositions:

1. The Eagle fans are desperate to unload McNabb
2. Yet they are desperate to get something for him before they 'waste' another year
3. They also do not want to allow him to walk away without any compensation for the team
4. They have embraced the fabricated rumor that the Rams will deal them the #33 pick and O.J. Otogwe for McNabb.
5. Yet Otogwe is not currently under contract by the Rams and cannot be traded.
6. Since Otogwe is not under contract by the Rams, the Eagles could simply sign him (at a price the Rams won't match) and Otogwe would be an Eagle

Implicit within statements #1 and #2 is the theory that McNabb is an impediment, and he must be disposed of. This would suggest that McNabb is a negative, and yet the Eagles want considerable compensation for him. This is declared in point #3. I find these three propositions contradictory, taken together.

Point #4 is confounded by the actual facts of life. The Rams are not negotiating for McNabb's services, period. This has been confirmed by NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora; not to mention Steve Spagnuolo & Billy Devaney. League sources declare that only the Eagles and Bills have made some overtures the Eagles, and shown some interest. Yet Eagle fans don't seem to care about the ESPN & NFL Network reports exploding their current pet theory. They seem to be enjoying the story they are telling each other so much, that prefer to ignore the factual reports.

Point #5 and #6 add the cherry on top of the whipped cream. Otogwe could be signed by the Eagles for the price of simple contract, so his addition brings no value at all to any trade package. This is assuming that he could be traded at the moment, which he cannot. This major error uncovers the hand of a poor liar, not well versed in NFL subterfuge. In short, this is the work of Mike Florio.

I have to say that I am enjoying the fireworks. I got big belly laughs out of recordings of Eagle fans on Philly's 97.5 FM. Mike Missanelli reminded me of Buddy Hackett in some of his funnier roles. Consider the following video footage of this joker:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d817269e1/Moving-McNabb

What did he say?

1. He thought the trade with the Rams had already been consummated; this according to some of the fans he talked to on the radio. {Joke}
2. Sentiment in Philly is running 75-25 against McNabb; possibly 80-20. Eagle fans are ready to turn the page.
3. When confronted with reports discrediting the Ram trade rumors Missanelli simply says "General Managers have been known to tell some fibs this time of year." He quickly turned his attention to his interpretation of Andy Reid's behavior.
4. When confronted with the extension-veto that McNabb holds, Missanelli quickly denied the existence of the extension-veto, effectively saying "McNabb doesn't have much choice in the situation. I think we can get somebody to take the deal."
5. When asked why a team would even give the Eagles compensation for a player with just one year on his contract, Missanelli first evaded the question and then finally said "Signing McNabb is the other teams problem. You gotta do what you gotta do. We need to move on with Kevin Kobb" He also tried to assert that McNabb would accept an extension in St. Louis because "he has people there", specifically Shurmer and Spagnuolo.

Oh Bouy... Where do you start deconstructing this mess?

You could start with the fact that McNabb can't accept a contract extension with the Rams because they aren't bidding or negotiating... but I won't go there.

First of all, you can immediately understand why Mike Missanelli is not a General Manager in the NFL. He would have no talent for making the deal. What is the art of the deal? Adam Smith summarized it best when he said

"It is not to the charity of the butcher or the baker that we owe our meat and bread, but rather to his regard to his own self interests."

Adam Smith taught us that you interest somebody in an economic transaction by appealing to his/her most base economic interests. You have to find truly interested parties in the market. You have to point out why your item for sale will delight the customer. You have to explain why this transaction would be absolutely fantastic for the buyer. You have to take on all obvious objections and show why there is no negative downside to the transaction, for the buyer, not for you. Did Missanelli do that? Nah, hell nah.

• The whole sales pitch rings of me, me, me. The Eagle fans want what's best for them, and screw the other side of the transaction.
• In working the Ram rumors, the Eagle fans fail to identify a truly interested party.
• By saying "we want to unload him, you take him" you are asking for a favor, you're not interesting a customer in doing a deal.
• All of the Philly fans, including Mike Missanelli, have deprecated this trade deal by deprecating McNabb.
• You will hardly overcome objections, and void negatives by saying something like "signing him is your problem. You gotta do what you've gotta do."

During the whole conversation, Missanelli never once grasped the point that Fran Charles was making: Your deal is next to impossible because McNabb holds defacto veto power. It was zeal for the deal that did it. He's so anxious to move on, he doesn't want to hear any spoilers. To be a GM in the league, not a fan, you need to be an ultra-realist. You need to grapple hard with all possible spoilers and come up with a sound solution.

Mike Missanelli is basically saying "Here is a choke-artist QB with 11 years in the league. You pay him the last year on his current contract, and give us a pick between #20 and #33 for it. If it is #33, we want a sweetener." That's one hell of a lousy sales pitch if you ask me. You can't even sell a Sham Wow or Slap Chop in that style.

It is human to be extremely myopic and selfish. This is one of the humorous moments in this story.

If I step back and look at this scene from 20,000 feet, what do I think?

1. There is some merit in the Eagles fans claims. McNabb has come up small in some big places. His performance against top-end competition in the biggest venues has not been a model of excellence.
2. On the other hand, McNabb hasn't always had play makers around him, and it hasn't always been his fault. The Eagles lost the NFC Championship last time because the Eagle defense could not stop the Cardinals on their clock-killing and game winning drive. There was also a questionable non-call on a pass interference play.
3. McNabb does hold a pocket-veto power in this case. It may not look like it at first glance, but his refusal to sign an extension can spoil and beak any deal.
4. It sucks to be Donovan McNabb. Can you imagine toiling for 12 years (and it will be 12 years before he walks as a free agent), walking out the door unceremoniously as a free agent, holding all the Eagle records, having had a hell of winning record in Philly, and being this poorly regarded for your efforts? Can you imagine retiring after having your body broken in Philly, and being this unappreciated for it. It sucks to be McNabb.

One more point: Just as I was about to hit the Publish Post button, I discovered this little gem.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/26/1391985/mcnabb-trade-eagles-raiders

It would appear that McNabb's agent Fletcher Smith has been given no reason to believe that a trade is immanent. Since any trade would likely require a contract extension, you can bet Fletcher Smith will be on board from the ground floor. I would say that this information should just about finish this inane conversation, but of course you know it will not.

This has more to do with the desire of frustrated Eagles fans than football facts and reality.

What a year a difference makes [sic]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/09000d5d81702699/Rams-GM-on-draft

The last time that title was true the year was 1999.

Well, Billy Devaney appeared on NFL Total access tonight, and I would be less than honest with you if I said I was thrilled by the contents thereof. I am glad he appeared. I am glad we got some information, but it was somewhat substandard.

What are the key points?

1. When asked about Sam Bradford, Devaney said that he and everyone else in the league is waiting for March 29, 2010 so they can see Sam throw. This will be the final test. Devaney affirmed that Sam had passed all the medical examinations with flying colors. The medical reports are excellent. Sam is an impressive guy, and impressed everyone in the interview process. [No one in the general public has witnessed Sam throw since his injury occured in October of 2009 against Texas. He seemed enthusiastic, but guarded.]
2. When asked about Ndamukong Suh vs. Gerald McCoy he said he and his staff could not tell the difference between the two. [I won't go there.] The staff is still looking for something that might create a little separation. They are slightly different in style, but equal in effect. They are high impact players, good character guys, and amazing athletes. He said, you can't go wrong with either one. Once again, Devaney was more active and alive when discussing these two DTs than he was when talking about Sam.
3. When asked if he was open to a trade, he said that the Rams are like all teams drafting at the top: the team is open to anything. He is prepared to do anything that would help him to restock the roster faster. "Yeah, absolutely we are open to a trade."
4. When asked how he was celebrating his St. Patrick's day, Billy said he was doing virtually nothing, outside of watching a bunch of Notre Dame tapes.

Egads! This last line scared the shit out of me. Let us hope he is evaluating Golden Tate, and Golden Tate only. Let us remember we have great needs at the WR position as well. Golden Tate is a very good prospect.

I have to be frank. I was more than horrified by the little joke. Perhaps I am taking it way too far, but at that instant I saw visions of us dropping down to #7, giving the Browns Bradford and us taking Clausen. Let us hope Washington or Seattle would save us from ourselves in such a situation.

I swear, if we draft Clausen, I am out. 30 years of Ramfandom will end at that very moment. I will not go through the next 5 failed years of this administration after this calamitous mistake.

Incidentally, there was a Ram scout at the UF ProDay. I saw him on videotape. He was no one I could recognize. Representatives from all 32 teams were present. Both Mike Tomlin and Mike Holmgren appeared to take a personal interest in Tim Tebow. I can show you Tomlin slapping Roethelisburger on the butt and telling him "You looked like Tim Tebow on that play." Why am I getting the hunch that the Steelers are going to take a shot at Tebow?

It was good to see D'Marco Farr NFL Total Access last night

As we all know, D'Marco Farr was one of our several defensive tackles on our 1999 championship team along with Agnew and Zgonia. He was our pass rushing specialist. A kid born in San Pablo California (just a little north of Oakland), who idolized Hulk Hogan, and played his college ball at the University of Washington. I remember him playing nose tackle for the Huskies, decked out his #49 jersey, which I considered very strange. #75 looked a lot better on him. D'Marco was our martial artist and pass rushing specialist during between 1994 and 2000. He is now the color analyst for the Rams' radio broadcasts. I am glad he has stayed connected to the team.

So, on to the good stuff. D'Marco gave us five take home points we should talk about:

1. Farr said he is almost absolutely certain that Marc Bulger has played his last snap as a Ram QB.
2. When diagnosing Bulger's collapse in St. Louis, Farr shocked many by declaring that it was Bulger's complete lack of charisma and leadership that was his undoing.
3. Farr has been given off-the-record inside word by the organization that we have three players on their spot sheet: Suh, McCoy and Bradford. The intent is to perform a completely unbiased mathematical summary of all their grades. The kid with the highest mathematic index value will be the choice.
4. When asked to predict who the Rams would select, Farr answered "Ndamukong Suh" without hesitation.
5. When asked what the Rams would do about a QB, he stated that we would pursue a veteran QB, and select a QB in a later round.

Let's take it point by point.

Marc Bulger has played his last snap as the Rams QB. I know it is true. I understand why we are not in a rush to release him, but the fact that he has cleaned out his locker tells all. I don't know why Devaney would continue to posture as if he might yet remain the QB. He may execute this charade to avoid a look of desperation. Why pretend? I don't think anybody doubts Bulger is done. Maintaining a charade is a waste of breath. It would take an incredible reversal of fortune for Bulger to remain with the team in 2010.

Marc Bulger failed because of his complete lack of charisma. I find this to be a surprising statement. Marshall Faulk credited Bulger with a little bit more than this. I do know that Bulger was once a confident QB, and his play over the past two seasons has shown a complete lack of confidence. I think his charisma withered away and died with his confidence. I think it needs to be stated that it was his lack of durability that really killed him. Lack of durability lead to injuries. Injuries lead to fear. Fear killed confidence. The death of his confidence killed his charisma. I would put this at the tale rather than the head of the list.

Off the record inside word says we will pick based on a strict mathematical grading system, not need. In this case, it is utterly obvious that we will select Ndamukong Suh. The scouts are united in stating that Suh and McCoy stand head and shoulders above the rest of the class. It is only the need-based theorists at ESPN who push the notion of Bradford... mostly because this is the off season and they have nothing to talk about.

The Rams will select Ndamukong Suh #1 in the draft. Thank God for that! It is a perfectly coherent stance with point #3. It's logical, flawlessly logical.

The Rams will pursue a Veteran and select a QB in a later round. This is the best possible plan. I love it. Let's just hope it is Michael Vick and Tim Tebow.

I should also mention that D'Marco favors trading for Donovan McNabb. Let us thank God that this is completely unrealistic notion. The only reason we are even discussing it is because a local St. Louis writer decided to fire a petard.

Also, MSNBC is reporting that the Rams have not had any conversations with the Eagles about McNabb. Read about it hear. Burwell is blaming copyist errors for an overstatement. He still stands by a weaker version of his petard. We'll soon find out it was absolute bullshit.

Bill Devany on NFL Total Access yesterday

Bill Devaney was briefly interviewed on NFL Total Access on 2/23/2010. He was quiet, subdued, maybe even a bit depressed. He may be anticipating a long and difficult season that may hurt his long term chances in life. The ownership situation and power vacuum in St. Louis also means some financial difficulties, hampering the rebuild of the team.

Devaney was very non committal on most subjects, but here is a short interpretation.

1. There have been no talks with Tampa Bay. He would like to talk with anybody and everybody about scenarios, but there have been no conversations as yet.
2. Devaney shed questions of drafting a QB with hardly a word, simply mentioning that Marc Bulger was still a member of the team. (!)
3. Michael Vick is under contract with the Eagles, and any discussion of him could be deemed tampering. However all scenarios are on the table.
4. The Rams will proceed in sequence from the combine, through free agency, through trades, and through the draft to fill each need. Move B cannot be planned until move A has been made.

The presentation was carefully crafted to say "We don't know what we are going to do aside from chase opportunities as we find them." I am sure this partially true. You never know what the market may offer you. Sometimes you get Jerome Bettis for a 2nd rounder. Sometimes you get Marshall Faulk for a 2nd and a 5th. Sometimes you can have Michael Westbrook and LaDanian Tomlinson for free. I know he knows more than he is letting on. Methinks he is planning ahead as a chess player, but he is not going to telegraph his punch.

I find it interesting that he shed the question of drafting a QB with hardly a word, mentioning Marc Bulger. If you read that statement as a psychiatrist would, it means Devaney would rather stick it out with Bulger for 1 more season than draft a rookie starter this year. If you read that statement as a military tactician would, Devaney may not want to discuss who he likes in this draft, and prefers to keep those plans confidential.

It is interesting that he immediately raised the spectre of tampering charges regarding Vick, but wouldn't squelch the rumor. The more I roll that over in my mind the more interesting that is.

Most interesting is the fact that he livened up when discusing the two DTs at the top of the draft. Mentioning Suh and McCoy ignited a small fire in the man.

Carefully considering what I saw in Devaney's interview, I think I saw:

• A shy man.
• A man who is depressed about the present moment.
• A man who is worried about his future.
• A man who is worried about the future of his franchise.
• A man who is not sure of what is around the corner.
• A man who would like to talk about deals with other GMs.
• A man who wants to take 1 of the 2 top DTs in the draft
• A man who disdains the entire idea of drafting a rookie QB in the first round, or starting a rookie QB in 2010.
• A man who has some plans to talk to Philly.