The 49ers? Bah! What rubbish!

Egads, you guys at the NFL Network are going to force me to unmask you as a marketing conspiracy. I would rather allow you to continue masquerading as a expert analysts giving unbiased information, but... allas, you are pissing me off with with this bullshit you pass off as logic and evidence.

Lately it has become a vogue meme to suggest that the 49ers are going to win the NFC West... Yes those Busch League 49ers are supposed to win the west again. That's the team owned by a woman named Denise. I know she pushes her son out in front of her and attempts to hide, but you know goddamn well Denise owns the team. Denise is a lousy, lousy owner; one of the worst in the league to be frank with you. She just doesn't have a clue.

The 49er theory so is patently preposterous, it can only be broadcast because the NFL Network is a marketing department of the NFL. You see, the 49er organization called and said they need help moving tickets. Ticket sales are pretty poor right now. The fans know what to expect. They are not excited. Since the NFL Network is a 100% wholly owned subsidiary, they are obligated to help teams implement their marketing strategy.

Folks, let's be absolutely clear about something: 2010 was the year the tires fell off the 49er rebuilding project. This is now a failed group, particularly on offense. There is hope for the defense, but they were not the elite group they were supposed to be last season.

Rather than this being the year Alex Smith turned the corner, 2010 was the year he went bust to the uttermost farthing. After 6 full years of basically nothing, it is impossible to pretend that this guy is a franchise QB or that he is going to turn the corner. Yet the 49ers are offering him a 1 year contract, and I'll bet you that they are going to try to roll with him in 2011.

You can just forget about the entire 2011 campaign if they go forward with this plan.

Maybe they are planing to lay-down and throw whatever comes of this lockout season in an effort to obtain Andrew Luck? Think about it folks. If they do lay-down, you sure as hell are going to look like a fucking fool for picking them. Think about it folks. You have a professional reputation to protect. You better think twice before picking these guys.

Rather than 2010 being the year that Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree finally developed chemistry, camaraderie and esprit de corp, you once again saw Mike Singletary drag them off by the scruff of the neck to upbraid them for fighting with one another on the practice field. Gore fights with Davis and critiques him sharply in the news media. Davis and Crabtree cuss each other out almost every practice, and they sometimes tie into each other.

This is an offensive unit with shit for chemistry. I am talking about rock-bottom levels of offensive chemistry. You need to break these bums up because they cannot play together. You need to ship them off for whatever you can get for them. You need to execute a full skill position rebuild on offense.

You might well have done that with new coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm, but then the lockout fucked you in the ass, didn't it?

But isn't Gore the reason they will win the NFC West? Folks, Gore has a pair of surgically reconstructed knees. Notice I said reconstructed, not repaired. He had full reconstruction on both knees. In addition to this, his 2010 season was cut short by a microfracture in his hip. If that weren't enough for you, Gore now has 7 full years in the NFL. The life expectancy of a running back is about 4 years. How much rubber do you think he has left on the tires?

Plain and simple: You are looking at a lost year. Good news though, you might be able to select Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft... if there is one.

Memo to the NFL Network: If you don't quit with the ticket-pushing lies, I am going to expose you, hardcore. I am not going to be nice about it either. I'm going to call you out by name an annihilate your fallacious logic and false facts.

What 5 non-playoff teams from 2010 will make the playoffs in 2011

Presuming we have a season in 2011, we can expect most of our statistical averages play out as per usual.

Usually, we laugh like hell at fans who expect the playoff picture next year to look exactly like it did last year. The reason is pretty straightforward. Each year and every year, about 5 teams who did not make the playoffs the year before make it this year. Since this is a zero sum game, the inverse is also true.

Consider 2010. After two years out of the playoffs, the Seahawks were in. After two years in, the Cardinals were out. After one year out, the Steelers were back in. After one year in the Bengals were out. After a couple of years out, the Packers were in won the whole shebang. After a couple of years in, the Vikings were down and out.

The take home message is pretty simple: The playoff picture changes every single year. There are no instant replays in the playoff picture from year to year.

Rich Eisen, Jamie Dukes and Trent Green kicked this can around on NFL Total Access tonight. Jamie and Trent each produced a list of 5 teams they thought would make the playoffs in 2011. Consult the NFL.com for video. They may yet put that one up on the site.

I thought I would quickly put my list of playoff teams up and explain why some folks still won't win it.

1. Giants
2. Texans
3. Rams
4. Bucs
5. Lions

Why the Giants? Only the Eagles look like a playoff team to me in the East, but they are vulnerable and beatable. I like the Giants to resign Plaxico and find their mojo center again.

Why the Texans? I think their defensive crew is better than advertised, and their LBs are better for the 3-4 than some suppose. They need a secondary, but everything else looks pretty decent. I like Wade Phillips to fix their defense well enough to allow a 6 seed in the AFC tournament.

Why the Rams? I like Sam Bradford's return to the Spread with Josh McDaniels. I think we will find a way to fix our wide receiver problems. We don't have much in the way of opposition in the NFC West. I like my Rams to take the 4 seed, despite a tough schedule.

Why the Bucs? I already spelled this out in an early blog entry. I think they have a fundamentally sound crew on offense. I like their chances of finishing their front four defensively in this year's draft. If they finish their line this year, they will have a good defense this year. I think they will be clutch in key moments, despite a tougher schedule in 2011.

Why the Lions? They Lions have big play makers on offense. They need offensive linemen like a dying man needs water in the desert, but I will trust them to do this in the draft in a few days. Surely they cannot be stupid enough to leave young Matt Stafford unprotected for a 3rd straight season?

Now let me discard some popular picks from Trent and Jamie, and tell you why. Here are the teams picked to make the playoffs this season who will not:

1. The Chargers
2. The 49ers
3. The Cowboys

Why not the Chargers? Stick a fork in, their done. I mean done and done. Forget about it. Done. I've already gone over this ad nauseum. Believe me, I do like the Chargers, but this group has categorically missed its window. They are on the downslope. Smith is on a serious loosing streak in the draft. He is the reverse of the Jets. He moves up at grotesque prices and misses.

Why the 49ers? Folks, with their lousy offensive chemistry, no change at the trigger-man, the loss of their defensive brain Mike Singletary, and a brand new coaching administration you can forget about these guys. The first year in the WCO is a bitch. I have no idea in the world how you can fuckin' pick these guys. These guys are going no where.

I was shocked when I heard a very intelligent dude like Trent Green proposing the notion the 49ers have playmakers. Why in the world would that matter if they have lousy chemistry and unit cohesion? Everyone is in a massive state of denial about the 49ers offensive skill personnel. I am telling you: They need a full skill-position clean and flush. Keep the offensive line, rebuild completely at your skill positions.

Right now, it looks like the 49er plan is to bring in a new coach and keep the same failed crew. It ain't gonna work folks. This is the scheme of a Busch-League organization. They have already brought in a hit parade of good coaches to coach these offensive bums. It ain't working.

Why the Cowboys? Finally! An interesting question! Folks, listen to Michael Irvin. The same fuckers who quit on the Cowboys are still on the roster right now. This is partially a consequence of the lock-out, but I don't think they can completely excise the cancer in a quick-time off-season disrupted by this lockout. The Cowboys' problems are deeper than many think. I am also concerned that Jerry might not do enough to fix their offensive line this season. What if Nick Fairley shows up at 9? What then?

There you have it folks

Learning to live with risk

Those reading this blog know I was never on board with the selection of Sam Bradford. I was against it all the way. To the very last instant, I was hoping for a trade announcement. Why so negative?

I felt drafting any QB #1 overall is an outrageous risk. Moreover, the natural risk is exacerbated by how poorly setup the Rams are to receive a fragile rookie QB. Our risk factors are higher than average, and average is pretty damn high already.

More specifically, I believed Sam would face the same fate as Marc did before him. Marc wasn't a bad guy. As I have said many times, we killed Marc Bulger. We let his OL dwindle to shit. We let his receiver corp dwindle to shit. Last year, we put Marc together with the worst offensive coordinator I have ever seen: Pat Shurmer. Now we are going to stick Sam Bradford in almost exactly that same shit.

Now does that sound like a good idea...?

And we are going to do so at the cost of $80 million. This is half an offshore oil drilling rig. This is the price of a modest Hollywood blockbuster. This will officially make Sam Bradford the highest paid Ram in history.

I used to laugh at teams who selected QBs #1 overall. A team fresh off of disaster elects a QB as their savior. A downtrodden fan base anoints this kid as the savior. Everyone hopes this will be the key player who is the linchpin of the next dynasty. They never seem to realize how seldom this works out in the end. The probability table is downright ugly.

If the kid will sign and play for you--which isn't always--he often gets hurt, or isn't good enough, or looses his confidence, or isn't serious enough to succeed. It will be the medical in Sam's case, if he doesn't pan out. When they don't go bust, the often turn into serviceable QBs who don't do much of anything spectacular. Look at Carson Palmer. Although he was selected #2 overall, look at Donovan McNabb. I always thought these poorboy franchises were foolish for going this route.

And now we have done it.

I spelled out the real risks in crass anatomical detail. I published them in high-traffic websites. I did everything possible to make this pick as uncomfortable as possible for Devaney. I was stone-cold ignored. He went and did anyway. When the pick came, it was like a wedding day celebration on national TV. It was clearly a joyous occasion for this administration. My heart was strangely warmed by this celebration. I was glad to see them make this pick with solid confidence. It gave me a very small modicum of confidence. 7 micrograms worth to be specific. Now what if they are fools?

Well, we did get one lineman and one receiver for him. I guess that's cold comfort.

The organization has taken a risk I have never witnessed in my lifetime. In 30 years of being a Ram fan, I have never seen the Rams do this. The last time we took a QB in the 1st round the year was 1964. This was something like 9 months before I would be conceived. We drafted Bill Munson from Utah State. He was not the absolute #1 either. That bust-o-matic bustola cured us. We would not take such a risk again for 46 years.

They stone-cold ignored me in several years when I wanted to take a Quarterback. I launched the "Draft Trent Dilfer" campaign at UCLA in 1994. The Rams gave me the middle finger. We fucked up. We stayed down low and selected Wayne Gandy from Alburn. He was a bust for us and the Steelers. Trent was a bust for the Bucs. He had to go elsewhere to succeed. I still contend that both Trent and the Rams would have had a much better time together than apart. We suffered without a QB for 5 years.

I was totally against Tony Banks and we saw what a tremendous bust he turned out to be. The only reason we don't mention him in the top 10 is because he was a 2nd round draft pick. This guy broke all records for fumbles and interceptions. He made Jake Del Homme look like a careful guy. The second we fired him, we won the Super Bowl. The second the Ravens fired Tony Banks (the very next year) they succeed us as World Champions.

Now when two teams that were struggling with you fire you and then immediately win the Super Bowl... in back-to-back years... Trent Dilfer succeed Banks in Baltimore. Don't you think we should have taken Dilfer instead of Banks in the 1990's?

FUCK!!!!

I hardly raised an eyebrow over the Trent Green acquisition. You never take a flier on somebody else's backup QB. Kansas City refuses to learn their lesson. Montana, Bono, Grbac, Green, Castle... they just keep doing it over and over again. Seattle will fair no better this season. Mark my words: Whitehurst is a stop gap insurance policy. Next year they are going to make a big move on Jake Locker. You never take a flier on somebody else's backup QB. This is why I was not big on the Trent Green trade.

In all fairness, Trent Green did show up big time for us in 2000. He was the NFL's highest rated passer that year. We immediately traded him. That was a mistake. I would still like to hire him as our offensive coordinator--if they won't hire Mike Leach--and sack Pat Shurmer.

I am usually not wrong about these Quarterback things. I have an instinct for it. I hate being right all the time. I am very hopeful that I am wrong about Sam and our organization... this time. However, I doubt it.

Devaney aught to know his ass is on the line. Spagnuolo is also on the line. If this doesn't work out, they are both dead meat. If it works, they are both geniuses, and everybody knew it all along.

I remember the scene when Governor Tarkin turns to Darth Vadar and says "This is an awful risk you're taking, Vadar." Vadar allowed the Millennium Falcon to escape with plans of the Death Star, knowing the the Rebs would take it to their main rebel base immediately. He planed to track them and destroy that rebel base-planet with the Death Star.

Let's just say it didn't work out. They blew the Death Star with a real bad call on that one.

Just picture me turning to Billy Devaney as Tarkin turned to Vadar and saying "This is an awful risk you're taking, Devaney."

The Rams should make Trent Green their offensive coordinator

The Rams have scored a total of 7 points this year. That's one touchdown in 8 quarters of play. We weren't exactly playing the 1985 Bears and the 1976 Steelers either. Compare and contrast our total of 7 points with the 92 points scored by the New Orleans Saints in these first two games. The Spirit of the Greatest Show on Turf and Air Coryell now resides under the roof at the Superdome.

So what are we going to do about it? Are we just going to keep plugging, or are we going to make a change?

This morning, one morning show was discussing the problems some certain team was having offensively. It wasn't the Rams. I think it might have been the Redskins. Immediately, one of the voices recommended hiring Trent Green as the new offensive coordinator. "He's too smart to be doing color commentary on Sundays. Trent has to become a coach at some point." The other voice agreed with him.

I mulled that over for about 10 seconds. I agree. Trent is too smart to be doing color commentary. If we don't hire him, somebody else will. When we have the most desperate problems offensively, we should be the one to make this move. If Trent is agreeable, we need to hire him. He has been in our camp several times. He knew our system in the Greatest Show on Turf days. He was the NFL's top rated quarterback in 2000, when Warner went down with an injury. We dealt him to KC for a 1st round draft pick, which in retrospect, looks like a big mistake. Trent is from the St. Louis area. Let's bring him back.

This move would also signify the moment when we abandon our attempt to get the West Coast Offense rolling in St. Louis. Let's face the facts guys. It has been three years. Things have been getting steadily worse. We aren't running the scheme, and what we are doing isn't working at all. When we already enjoyed the most high-performance offense the world has ever known (at least until New Orleans) I don't see why we want to step down to a complicated ball-control passing scheme.

Bring Trent in. Ask him to run the offense he wants to run. Let's see what he does. I bet it will look much more like Mike Martz and Don Coryell than Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren.