So quarterbacks are good if they are drafted in the first round?

Intro

You know how much I love the NFL Network. These guys are my evening house guests every night. Unfortunately, I am going to have to take exception to one big logical fallacy I have heard repeatedly in recent days. This fallacy is posed as a question and it goes a little bit like this:

“If the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are so bad, why are so many of them going to be drafted in the first round?”

The answers are incredibly obvious, but let’s do a bit of reductio ad absurdum just for fun. You know I just loved that reductio ad absurdum to death. This is the force that made my UCLA degree worth more than $0.25 thimble full of coffee. It’s more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Implicit within the NFL Network’s argument are the following key points:

• A player must be good to be taken in the first round.
• Conversely, if a player is taken in the first round, he must be good.
• If a bunch of teams are considering a QB in the first round, they must be impressed by the good quality of this year’s crop.
• If a bunch of QBs go in the first round, it must be a good QB year.

Fallacious! Fallacious! Fallacious! This is bogus false reasoning, and completely erroneous also. Fallacious reasoning doesn’t always guarantee a false conclusion; it just means your logic is bad. In this case, the logic is bad and the conclusion is absolutely false. What is the real story?

Rebuttal

Rather than simply stating the obvious let’s do this catechistically. I’ll phrase my answers as questions.

1. If Andrew Luck had come out of Stanford this year, who would be the #1 QB in the 2011 draft?
2. How many teams need a QB this year?
3. If we had had a normal free agency/trade period would all of these teams be in need of QB as we approach the draft?
4. If free agent QBs such as Mark Bulger had flown free, would the Cardinals be looking for a QB right now?
5. If QBs such as Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb were on the trading block, would the Vikings and 49ers be looking for a QB right now?
6. If Vince Young had been released, would QB demand in this draft be absolutely unchanged?
7. If Carson Palmer (whose Bengal jersey I am wearing right now) had not abruptly pulled up stakes and retired, do you think the Bengals would use the #4 pick for QB… if they get a shot at it?
8. There are several brand-new first year coaches who have no quarterback to speak of. Several are in near-rebuilding situations. Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak and Huge Jackson are in this situation. {Incidentally, the Raiders need a QB, and they don’t want to admit it.} Would QB demand be unchanged if you didn’t have new coaches, hoping for a good start?
9. Do you think the lockout and lack of free agency has had zero impact on club plans in the 2011 draft?

The Solution Set

Folks we live in a time of remarkable NFL crisis. About 10-12 teams need a QB. There is a chronic and serious quarterback shortage in the land. The handful of available (and competent) QBs are quite literally locked out of reach of the needy beggars who want them. The desperation is building. It is palpable and it is visceral.

Against all common sense, many teams are considering the chicken switch (reaching for a 2^nd rounder in the 1^st), but this does not prove that this is a good QB class. Taking an undraftable red-light kid in the 1^st round is not indication that this is a good year. The fact that desperate fools are going to hit the chicken switch is no measure of talent.

Brian Baldinger is quite correct when he says that you’re taking a big risk if you wait for the second round. There might not be anything there for you when the time arrives. Certainly, you will curse the football gods if this happens to you. However, just a few years down the road, you may be counting this event as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

My Perspective

I wouldn’t take Ryan Mallett. I wouldn’t take Cam Newton. I would take Blaine Gabbert, but the price is outlandish. If he hits, it will look like genius. I love second round QBs, but I like my 2^nd rounders in the 2^nd round; not the first. I would love to get Christian Ponder in the 2^nd. I would love to get Andy Dalton in the 2^nd. If you give me Dalton in the 3^rd, I’m going to jump through the roof. I am intrigued by Colin Kaepernick, or are we calling him Optimus Prime now?

Charnak and the Wonderlic have scared me regarding my favorite kid Jake Locker. Nevertheless, I would still take the risk on this kid. I think Jake Locker is a lot better than Kyle Boller.

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

Passer Rating App

When Dallas Braden pitched his perfect game a week or so ago, the NFL Network celebrated that achievement by counting down the top 10 perfect Passer-Rating games of all time. This, of course, begs the question just what is a perfect Passer-Rating game anyhow?

Of course, this doesn't mean no-sacks, no-interceptions, no-incompletions, and no QB penalties (such as intentional grounding) as I think it should. I think we would still be looking for that first perfect performance if such was the case.

Rather, a perfect passer rating is defined by the passer-efficiency formula. There is a hard-cap of 158.3 on that formula, but it is not imposed by the formula. It's just imposed by rule. You can read these formulas here.

Fran Charles showed us the formula on screen and declared "If you can understand that math, you have a large amount of money in your future." Not being a man given to math anxiety, I wanted to have a good look at it, so I hit the pause button. 'Twas nothing! The formula is piece of cheese cake with some cherry sauce.

When I saw that, at around 12:30am in the morning, I had to fight the urge to flip open ye old laptop and scribble some code. I figured I could code it in under 20 minutes. I had some down-time at work this morning, as per usual, and I decided to give it whirl. The class which does the calculation was trivial. It was more effort to rig the WPF test form than the class which calculates the formula.

Just 75 lines of code, no mas. It could have been smaller and more compact, but I decided to put in some luxory items, like the NCAA passer rating formula, and the passer's first name and last name. I didn't have to do that. There it is in nice shiny Microsoft C# 4.0 code.

Grad total of effort: Maybe an hour and a half. It could easily be converted to Java in 20 minutes or less. Mayhaps I will do that with NetBeans tomorrow. Same goes with Visual Basic.

So I suppose the main question is this: Does NFL.com have a WebService API and can lock-on to and feed my app. I can do real-time passer ratings with this app if I take it a step or two further. It would make a nice Google Android app.