Will Trent Richardson go in the 2nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft?

For reasons I will spell out in a soon-but-future blog entry, I believe Trent Richardson has to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Heisman this year. This is a continuation of the 10-year historical trend which shows that you must be (A) from a very established power-program and (B) play for a nation-championship contender and (C) be the MVP of that program. Trent is the only guy who fits the suit.

Most of the early draft boards show Trent as the #1 running back on the 2012 NFL Draft. Not the #1 pick, mind you, just the best running back. CBS Sports has him graded as the #8 overall pick in the entire draft. We know that there will be many swerves in the road between this point and that, and we know nothing of them. Still, it is a solid bet that TR will retain his top-ranking.

But this leaves open the question: Where and when will Richardson be drafted in 2012? Many great backs including Thurman Thomas have fallen into the 2nd round. Very few these days have been taken anywhere near the top.

With the massive success of undrafted free-agents like Arian Foster and LeGarrette Blount, there is more talk now that ever about how deprecated the running back position is in the NFL Draft. Former GMs like Michael Lombardi have told us many times that the RB is now a commodity position. GMs feel increasingly free to plug-n-play any sort of prospect in the lineup. There is no need to draft an RB in the 1st round or even near it.

With this as a background, consider the rumor I heard on XM radio yesterday evening: Unknown experts I am hardly familiar with stated (for all the reasons I just spelled out) their conviction that Trent Williams will go in the 2nd round of the 2012 Draft. Quote: "He may be pick 33, but he won't go before 33."

Wow... shocking... believe me, I know. Consider this: Trent's better predecessor narrowly avoided the 2nd round in this past 2011 draft. Further, 2011 gave us a very weak draft. Even so, Mark Ingram was selected just 4 picks away from the bottom of the 1st round. 2012 will be better year. If we put both of Richardson and Ingram on the same board together, I would select Ingram first.

If all this is true, it is plausible that Trent Williams will fall into the 2nd round. I had not considered this, but it is rational and plausible. Shocking none the less, I know.

I thought about the implications all night last night. If the chips do happen to fall as expected, the Rams should hold the #34 pick. We should have exercised the #2 pick on Justin Blackmon, just as CBS Sports and yours truly project. Think of the marvelous good luck we would have if Trent Williams just happens to be on the board at pick #34?

Do we snatch him with pick #34? Unless everybody in the building is on drugs, the answer is certainly yes! You know and I know that Steve Jackson is ever increasingly worn down. We have not gotten a full 16 game season out of him at anytime. Whether we deal him to a contender for his benefit is a question of internal politics in the big front office transition we face in 2012. Whatever happens, we would be stupid to pass on a potential franchise back who would do wonderful things to weaponize Sam Bradford.

Whilst I feel bad for Trent Williams, I am very excited for my team. The implications of snatching both Justin Blackmon & Trent Richardson in the same draft are fairly staggering. Provided our 3rd Rounder is a good choice, our offense could go from disgustingly weak to reasonably loaded in short measure. If we retain Bradon Lloyd, we could be ready for war in 2012.

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

The Mocks of 2011 suggest a great rivalry

So, my friends at the Bleacher Report sent me a morning NFL update, as they always do, and this one contained about 50th Mock Draft I've seen this season. What did it indicate?

Well, there were two points of interest for me in this and numerous other mocks:

1. The 49ers select Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
2. The Rams select Julio Jones, WR Alabama

That has been one of the premier street-fights in NCAA football over the past three seasons. If the Mocks are correct. It will continue and intensify in the Pro ranks. We'll see these two beat on each other twice per year for God knows how long.

The reasoning is pretty simple in both cases. In Peterson's case, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Patrick Peterson is possibly the best athlete in the draft
2. Corners are undervalued, and never go that high.
3. He made a 9 on his Wonderlic, sliding him down a bit
4. The NFL is about to tamper with his value as a returner
5. Ergo Patrick Peterson slides to 7 where the 49ers cannot pass

In the case of Julio Jones, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Julio blew up the combine
2. Julio either broke his foot at the combine, or before the combine (accounts vary). While this makes his performance all the more amazing, he now has a medical red-flag. Minor though it may be, it will not be ignored.
3. Julio is the clear #2 WR behind B.J. Green
4. Julio dropped some passes in college. Shame, shame.
5. The top 10 is jammed with teams that need QBs and defense.
6. There is only one very likely spot in the top 10 where a WR will go (Cleveland)
7. Julio is likely to slide to 14 where the Rams have a desperate need.

Of course, there are exceptions to this pattern. Some think Peterson will go as high as #1. I think that is bloody unlikely; wishful thinking really. It's either QB or DT for the Panthers. Forget everything else. Nobody else is truly in the running.

Some think the Washington Redskins will select Julio Jones at the #10 spot. I think that is bloody unlikely; trade stimulus talk to be frank with you. I think some Redskin fans are signalling this to see if they can pimp the Rams for some picks.

Why do I say that about the Skins? I'll give you two reasons. Few, if any NFL insiders think the Skins will select an offensive player in this years draft. Shanahan has a serious political problem and liability on his hands. He inherited a good 4-3 defense. He arbitrarily blew up the ship and went 3-4 when he did not need too. His defense is now at the bottom of the barrel. This literally spoiled the honey moon. Shanahan created some very, very, very angry Redskin fans with this one move. If that defense doesn't get up off the carpet and show some life in 2011, Shanahan could be in some danger.

I will bet you dollars to donuts that the Redskins go defense in 2011. I'll bet they do it in a big way. As Mike Lombardi says, they have a 3-4 defense, and they do not have 3-4 personnel. This is the Redskins' most serious problem. It's even worse than their QB situation, which is now sitting at #2 slot. Only after this can we begin to discus the subject of a WR. Julio Jones at #10? Nope.

Can you imagine Patrick Peterson and Julio Jones in the NFC West, playing for bitter rivals? One thing is for sure: This would be good for business.

The NFL Network's big chill

A friend of a friend commented that I rarely mention the NFL Network these days, and wondered if my interests had changed. He said he could tell I am watching more FoodNetwork than NFL Network these days. He wondered if this was a permanent change in interests or if I would blog about the NFL Network again during the regular season.

Well... The perception is a bit off, but there are many grains of truth there. There is also an interesting blog post found in this conversation.

You probably have noted that there are more ESPN references lately than NFL Network references. I am watching more NFL Live than NFL Total Access these days. Is that just because it is the off season?

No. Let me tell you about it.

There was a cleavage between me and the NFL Network during the 2010 draft campaign. I bet you know what caused it, too! Or do ya?

During the run up to the 2010 NFL Draft, I realized several very unhappy truths about the NFL Network. Specifically, I realized that this is the official propaganda mouth piece of the 32 front-offices and also HQ. Notice I did not use the term teams. I used the term front-offices. There is a big distinction there which I am well aware of. I chose my terms carefully and with reason. I mean to say exactly what I wrote.

Perhaps I am just a slow and dull old boy, but I had formerly considered sources such as Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly reliable and brutally honest. I knew some guys on the network were glad-handlers; Steve Marucci comes to mind. However, to the very last man, I watched each one of these guys change their tune regarding Sam Bradford and the Devaney-agenda.

When the draft began Charley Casserly was adamant that you never push a guy up the board because he fits a need. He vehemently defended drafting the best athlete regardless of position. He sited case after case showing that the worst busts happen when you reach for a guy because of need. He was opposed by coach Jim Mora Jr. who said that was a management position, and coaches get fired quick because of one or two missing players at key positions of need.

Casserly began the 2010 draft cycle insisting that Gerald McCoy was the #1 pick in the draft. He didn't like Bradford because of his injuries and his background in the Spread-Offense. I saw him do a dramatic about-face during the process. Why? Because Bradford stood on the side-line during the combine with his arms folded? On the strength of just one controlled workout? Was that it?

I have--in pure digital--Mike Mayock declaring that 2010 was a bad QB year. "All the QBs are injured and questionable for one reason or another," he said. I watched him do a dramatic about-face and support Devaney with the bullshit-line "a franchise quarterback trumps all." Early in the process, he said he didn't believe there were any franchise QBs in the 2010 draft. The closest thing to it was Sam Bradford, and he was much more than uncertain about Sam.

Why did Mike Mayock change his mind? Because Bradford stood on the side-line during the combine with his arms folded? On the strength of just one controlled workout? Was that it?

Folks, I could go on. There are many more dramatic examples of dramatic about-faces inside the NFL Network regarding Sam Bradford. Were there a good reasons for this dramatic about-face? Hell no!

There was a very bad reason for this about-face. Billy Devaney informed the NFL Network--off the record--that he was going to take Sam Bradford. He probably gave Adam Schefter this news also. This is why Adam Schefter gave us this news with total conviction, early on, when that seemed like a preposterous story. Of course, they would never admit they knew. This is for the same reason the old WWF would not admit that wrestling was scripted entertainment. This would blow the illusion.

As I have stated several times lately, the NFL Network has a promotional function. This promotional function is the primary function of the NFL Network. This leads us right into the pages of MIT Professor of Linguistics Noam Chomsky's "Manufacturing Consent." We should give some credit to Edward S. Herman also. He co-wrote the book.

"Manufacturing Consent" examines the propaganda model of the media. The thesis is pretty simple: Mass media supports large corporate and governmental interests. They have too. This is the side their bread is buttered on. This apparatus is used to form a soft-grip control on public opinion. It is a subtle, non-violent, means of evangelism and persuasion used to get people on board with the decisions big bosses are making at higher levels. Of course, this is better than the violent means of coercion used by totalitarian societies, but it is so unfortunate that weak minded fools repeat anything they hear through "authoritative news sources".

Everything Chomsky said in this book and movie applies triple-force to the NFL Network. I think the NFL Network was founded after Paul Tagliabue saw "Manufacturing Consent" and cried-out in joy "Eureka!"

I noted all of the elements of this propaganda model operating on the NFL Network during the 2010 draft campaign. These techniques and tactics were employed to get Rams fans on-board with Devaney's decision to draft a quarterback, and more precisely, Sam Bradford. The NFL Network is still using Chomsky-specific propaganda to do post-sale evangelism on Sam Bradford. Note Steve Wyche's recent use on the Bandwagon technique in fabulous fiction regarding Sam Bradford.

This is no conspiracy theory. The NFL Network is wholly-owned subsidiary of the NFL. It is the NFL. They do the NFL's bidding. This is all out in the open folks. This is no conspiracy. From it's very inception, the NFL Network was designed to be an NFL controlled source of information. You know that.

I know beyond any shadow of a doubt that Devaney knew he was going to make an unpopular and controversial pick when decided he was going to select Sam Bradford. I know that he knew many dedicated fan-forces were arrayed against this decision, and for differing reasons. I know he felt he needed help in persuading these fans to get on his bandwagon. I am certain he went to the NFL Network, gave them off-the-record information (which makes them look like genius analysts on draft day) and (in return) asked for their help in evangelizing Ram-fans.

This is why Mayock changed his tune. This is why Casserly changed his tune. This is why Lombardi said things like "He's drafted linemen in each of the past three years; he can't go back into that locker room and say 'I've drafted another lineman'". This is why you had everyone chanting the pious cant "the Rams need a a QB to give the fans and the team hope for the future."

Am I saying that the NFL Network is the official mouth-piece of the 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying it is part of their official function to promote the agenda of the 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying that Devaney runs one of those 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying a gentileman's agreement was reached? Yep. Am I saying that there was an official directive inside the building to soft-pedal Devaney's agenda? Yep. Am I saying out that they carried out that agenda, among many others? Am I saying that they are currently engaging in post-sales evangelism? Yep.

Right now just about all of the star analysts on the NFL Network are congratulating Devaney on making the right move. We will see if they saying the same thing in 5 years when we may well have destroyed a #1 draft pick kid who we were grotesquely unprepared to receive in camp.

About Sam Bradford, the young man, not the draft decision

So they had just a bit of footage from the Rams' OTAs last night on NFL Total Access. The focus was on the question "Why is Sam working out with the 2nd string right now?"

It was false drama by the media. All of us know why. The team is trying to pretend they aren't going to throw him head first into the shark tank immediately... sink or swim. We all know the truth is a little bit different. Jason La Canfora said as much, but he put a tad bit of spin on it, saying something along the lines of:

"They're taking it one step at a time. They want him to feel that he's earning it. Everyone expects him to be the starter by the time the games start counting. They describe his workouts as 'awesome.'"

Setting aside all my disputes with Devaney's judgement and draft strategy, which are numerous, what do I think of Sam Bradford, the player, the guy in a Ram helmet, right now?

He looks pretty good in a Ram uniform. He's not the skinny as a rail kid he was a few years ago during the BCS championship game. His throwing motion looks a lot faster as well. He always had a nice fluid throwing motion, reminiscent of Jim Plunkett at his best, but I don't recall his motion being quite this snappy before. Maybe he's self consciously trying to decrease his release time. Maybe his release has gotten faster as a result of the muscle weight and strength increase. I don't know.

We all know a quick release is good. Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre had the three fastest releases I've ever seen in my life. Some say Elway was the fastest. Some say Marino was the fastest. It doesn't really matter now. They are both in the Hall of Fame, and they are both legendary figures of football folklore.

I would really appreciate it if our friends at the NFL Network or ESPN would put the super-high-speed cameras on his motion, and get out the laser speedometers, and clock Sam's throwing motion. Somebody probably already did that during the draft, but I did not see any results published. Also, I would like to see how Sam's new and faster release compares to Elway, Favre and Marino's.

Maybe I am a stupid homer, but it looks to me like his release time just might be down there in the lower milisecond regions, where the aforementioned great-ones dwell.

If so, this bodes extremely well for my Rams. I know for a fact that a slow-release doesn't kill you in the NFL. Many HOF QBs had slower releases. However, I know for a fact that a quick release does help. It's a positive. It's just like having quick feet. It's a good talent to have, if you've got it. Not absolutely mandatory, but it is to your advantage.

I think it has more to do with a QB's instant reaction to a situation than surprising defensive backs. I still don't believe NFL Corners can read the QB's throwing motion and react as quickly as they say they can. One thing we have to remember: defenders are always full of bravado and bullshit. This is true of Nose Tackles also. Defenders claim they can do all sorts of things they cannot do. You might call it "talking shit" but it's more like "believing shit."

Each time I see the kid on film, and I've only seen about 5 minutes of practice film, he looks very good. He looks better than most QBs I've seen practicing in these OTAs. Maybe it's just because he's deadly serious, and others are taking it easy. If so, there's nothing wrong with that picture. Can't complain about that.

Honestly, we can't tell until the regular season strikes, but so far he looks good. You know I am hoping and praying I am wrong about his career. Nobody will be happier than I will be if I turn out to be wrong here. The problem is the percentages are not good.

Everybody else seems extremely bullish about Sam Bradford. Just two days ago, I watched a couple of old episodes of Path to the Draft and Draft Recap. They said some terribly flattering things about Sam. Our two GMs, Michael Lombardy and Charlie Casserly, were very high on Bradford.

Casserly, in particular, said remarkable things. Just what did he say?

• "Bradford is one of the best QB prospects I have scouted in the past 10 years"
• "If I was a Ram fan I wouldn't question this selection. I would take heart and be excited about this choice. You're getting a great quarterback."
• "Bradford is the best player in this draft. He is the number one athlete, and he is going to be the #1 pick by the Rams."

When scientifically comparing the QB prospects from 2009, 2010, and 2011, several of the commentators on draft-recap believed Bradford is the best of the breed. This was particularly clear in Casserly's case. He favored Bradford's accuracy over Stafford's raw arm strength. He favored both over Jake Locker, who he seems to view as non-No.1 absolute. Mike Mayock seems to favor Stafford based on his 'generational arm', or arm strength alone.

[The logic of Mike Mayock's argument is not particularly sound. You never favor a dude on arm strength alone. If so, JaMarcus Russell would actually be a quarterback, and not an unemployed civilian. I should also caution you with the fact that Cassely doesn't think Tebow is a natural passer who can read coverage. That is bizarre notion, as Tebow is the NCAA's most efficient passer ever, even over our own Sam Bradford.]

All of these glorious statements can be challenged by a skeptic. Follow some of these statements to their logical implications. If any of this is true, do you know what it means? It means that Bradford ranks along side of guys like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, etc." Do you think that's right? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet.

We should caution with the following fact: Casserly also said Ben Roethlisberger had to be preferred over Sam Bradford. This was based on concrete achievement. Don't forget the Steelers were prepared to trade Roethlisberger and sweeteners for our Bradford. That's based on disgrace.

If these statements are true, Bradford is a better athlete than Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Do you believe that is true? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet. I find that difficult to believe. Let's remember, Mike Mayock kicked off the draft season by saying that this was a bad QB year, and two men stood head and shoulders above the field: Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Somehow he changed his tune with the "Franchise Quarterback trumps alls" motif.

If just some of these statements are mostly true, this would strongly imply that my Rams just got away with the best QB prospect in the past 3 years. We'll also have a better one than will be available next season. He'll also be 1 year ahead of Jake Locker in experience during 2011.

One fact cannot be disputed: We are not well setup to receive a young man who has had injury problems at the quarterback position.

1. We had a bad line that gave up 44 sacks last season
2. We jettisoned two bad starters in Icognito and Barron. This is good, but...
3. We are rejiggering the line, switching a Right Tackle Sophomore to left, and a freshman Left Tackle to Right.
4. We're plugin in our reserve tackle Adam Goldberg at right guard.
5. We don't have terrific receiver threats. They are better than some think, but worse than the homers would have you believe.
6. Steven Jackson is coming off back surgery. The presumed security blanket may not be there.
7. Steven Jackson has no competent backup.
8. We do not have a running back committee, as we should have.
9. This cannot be remedied by signing Michael Westbrook, presuming he will sign with us, which is a big "IF".
10. We're running the WCO, which is an outdated and outmoded offense; a scheme that has been systematically defeated by the Belichick Box.
11. We've got Pat Shurmer as our OC... Nuff'said.
12. Whatever else you want to say about it, durability is the paramount issue. You can have fantastic size, strength, speed, lightning fast release, laser-guided accuracy, a brilliant mind, etc. If your body breaks down, your career goes up in smoke. My worst fear is that Sam lacks the physical durability necessary to make all of his other gifts work for him in the NFL.

All of these are great obstacles Sam is going to have to overcome. I hope he does so, for all our sakes.

I hope this is the turn of the tide. I hope we have a deadly franchise QB. I hope we have the next QB everybody will be raving about. I hope he triggers the establishment of a new dynasty and 10 years of glorious winning. I hope he's the QB every wide receiver wants to play for, just as Kurt Warner was in the early stages of this decade.

There is a lot to love about this kid. I just hope we are not responsible for destroying this young man with bad draft decisions, bad coaching, and bad personnel misses. One of the things that pisses me off is that Devaney took this kid, and then passed on coaches and tools that would make him successful. That has to change really damn quick.

Final thoughts about the big four QBs in this draft

I heard Michael Lombardi denigrating Colt McCoy on a recent post-mortem edition of Path to the Draft. He seemed to think McCoy didn't have the ability to be NFL Quarterback. In particular his arm strength and accuracy just weren't great enough to be quality starter in the NFL.

Now doesn't that just beat all? I thought Lombardi was Mr. 49er. He studied at the footstool of Bill Walsh right? I though Joe Montana and Bill Walsh proved (together) that a QB with a 5 out of 10 in terms of athletic ability could be a 9.5 out of 10 as an NFL QB. Now Colt will study under Mike Holmgren, the premier QB developer in the league (the greatest student of Walsh), and Lombardi doesn't think Colt will make it? That did not compute.

Let me be the first to say it: Colt is going to do just fine in Cleveland. The people there are going to love him.

On the other hand, Lombardi, and everybody else, seems to think Clausen can be the A.P. Offensive Rookie of the year. I am not going to rehash my case against Clausen. I will simply say this: If Clausen turns out to be any kind of good NFL QB, I will walk on my surgically repaired & arthritic knees to Ravenna Italy. The women are beautiful there, I am told.

So how did we get the impression that Tebow does everything wrong?

I just finished up an argument online with naybobs on the subject of Tim Tebow. I was amazed at how overstated the critiques of Tim are. Some came out echoing the sentiments of the notorious Jaguar lineman who said "He can't throw." That was reason #1 and #5 on this swarthy moron's list of reasons why Tebow won't make it in the NFL. The folks on my message board went deep into the atrocities and travesties of his throwing motion and footwork. You see, from a Quarterback's point of view, Tim Tebow does everything wrong. This is why he'll never make it in the NFL.

So they said. Of course, these are all NFL QB coaches with Hall of Famer QBs on their resume. err... you mean you haven't done anything but watch football since High School?

Critics, you gotten down right stupid. The balanced people out there know it. Stop and consider the dramatic exaggerations of fact you are spewing. If it were true what you say, if Tebow does do everything wrong from the viewpoint of a real quarterback, how then do you explain any of the young man's many achievements? If his mechanics were utterly and fatally flawed, he never would have started or played in the first place at the 2 time national champion Florida Gator teams. If he did everything wrong, he would have been converted to another position, he would have ridden the bench, or his scholarship would have been revoked. There is simply no other possibility.

"Oh but the pro game is so different from the college game..."

It's not that different. It is categorically impossible for wretchedly flawed quarterback (who does it all wrong) to become one of the greatest college football players in history. It is not possible for him to prove himself in victory after victory in the ultra-hard SEC. He could never have passed with a career efficiency rating of 176. He could not have won the Heisman. He could not be the 4th ranked QB in this 2010 draft. He could not be the subject of 3rd round considerations around the league. {The 3rd round seems to be the new consensus on the NFL Network.} You would not have men like Brian Billick, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, and Mike Mayock warning you: Do not bet against Tebow in the NFL.

Rich Eisen has hinted strongly in the direction of my last paragraph several times on the NFL Network. The most clear case occurred when he interviewed Tebow at the NFL Combine. Eisen is careful to remain neutral on most political issues in his capacity as moderator on the NFL Network. Yet he has found a way to ask a few damning questions of the Tebow critics. Jamie Dukes has been peppered once or twice. Clearly, Eisen does not understand how a QB so tragically flawed as Tebow can do what Tebow has done.

The solution to the conundrum is simple: The critics vastly overstate their case to the point of error. Tebow is not nearly as mechanically flawed as they say he is, and he is even more athletic than we suspected. Only in the case of Tebow does a score of 22 on the Wonderlic equate to stupid. For Clausen, 23 is not stupid. Have you forgotten that Tebow averaged a 3.66 GPA at Florida? Do you remember that he was an academic all-american also? He does not come off as stupid to me.

Tebows achievements are a fact, not a theory. The analysis and conjectures of his mechanics involve a lot of opinions, and theory. In a philosophy of science class many years ago, I learned a brutal lesson that has stuck with me ever since: You can't trump a fact with a theory. When the facts collide with the theory, the theory dies, not the facts. Right now, people are twisting the facts to fit their theory that Tebow will fail in the NFL. Scientists don't do that. Good scientists twist the theory until it fits the facts. If your theories & analyses regarding Tebow were accurate, the concrete facts would not be possible. Frankly, your exaggerations are so exaggerated that you sound stupid, not just factually incorrect.

Why does any of this disagreement happen then? Why is it that Tebow has become this polarizing figure in scouting realms?

1. Scout CYA: Tebow has such a big name, that nearly every team in the league began this draft season with an interest in him. More than a few (like the Jags) were prepared to spend a 1st rounder on him. Tony Dungy said he would take Tebow ahead of every QB in this 2010 draft. The scouts know that Tebow has some mechanical problems that need work, and they also knew he would need to learn about Pro style offenses. Ergo, they could not stomach the idea of giving him any sort of grade that would get him near the first round. Early cautious statements were not enough to dampen enthusiasm for the kid, so the scouts increased the intensity of their critiques. It's snowballed from there. Remember: No scout wants to be seen as the guy who gives a development project a first round grade. This is why they do CYA.
2. Jealousy: There are a lot of unhappy and jealous people in this world. Being half Latin, I know something about this. Angry jealousy is something that Latino culture excels at. There are people in this world who get pissed off when they hear that you achieved something, or that something good has happened to you. Their first reaction is not to congratulate, but to get miserable and angry. They wish terrible things would happen to you... like knee injuries or concussions. The sports world, in its zero-sum format, is full of this kind of bitterness. Surely, given the huge record of success Tebow has had, there are many bitter and jealous souls out there who wish it was them. The sports media are full of jealous and bitter jocks who wish it could have been them.
3. Profligacy: Colin Cowherd is one of these guys. There are lounge lizards and playboys all over the sports media, and all over the world. I'm talking about dirty, slimy, scummy bastards who want to get in line for one of Tiger's mistresses and talk about it on the radio. We have debauched drug dealers, street hookers, and gang bangers all inside the NFL family. Many are downright belligerent when it comes to religion. They have much to fear if any of the Abraham religions are correct, but Christianity holds a special place in their ire. A guy like Tebow is not well received by these types. Watching Tebow succeed for the next 10-15 years is more than Colin Cowherd can take. They want the nightmare of a Christian witness to end now. Got bad news for you Colin: You got two others coming up in this draft also; including the #1 ranked prospect.

Consider the biases of the source, the next time you hear outrageously overheated and overstated critiques of Tim Tebow.

So we are agreed that the Rams should take Suh at the top of the first

Ah the media... will they never cease to rumor mill in the name of having something to talk about during the off season? Absolutely not!

I felt bad for Michael Lombardi this evening. He drew the shortest straw before they recorded NFL Total Access today. He was forced to advocate Sam Bradford as the #1 pick. Our panel of experts did not agree. Marshal Falk declared that Bradford is damaged goods and Suh should be the man. Takeo Spikes was emphatic that Ndamukong Suh is a team changing force.

It was interesting that the real Michael Lombardi came out at the end of this discourse. He openly cast doubt on the notion of who is a franchise QB by raising the spectre of Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. As he stated, if this draft were held over again, Aaron Rodgers would be the overwhelming #1. This was his little suggestion to us all that true franchise blood can be found lower than the #1 pick.

Unless the media is intentionally trying to help the Rams run a trickeration on the rest of the league, effectively conning the Redskins into making a deal with us, they are simply talking themselves into a position which is empirically unfounded. D'Marco Farr has already busted the NDA. The Rams are going to select disregarding need. It is going to be on the basis of a strict mathematical grade. Anyway you slice it, that has to be Ndamukong Suh. Unless...

I heard a rumor that Suh had not one but 2 knee surgeries. I could only find evidence of 1. Evidently, he had one before spring practice began in 2009. It kept him out of Spring drills, but did not result in any missed playing time. He played in all 13 games, and a was a crushing force. I would have a close look at that knee, but I suspect it is nothing. If he had a minor Athroscopy he will pass all the medicals. Since no one is talking about it, and he busted a tremendous 40 time, I suspect he passed all the medicals.

So why is the football media speaking as if the Rams may draft Sam Bradford? They are simply talking themselves into it. Of course, verdict they reach has nothing to do with the verdict the Rams reach. They can decide that the Rams will select Brandford as often as they please. They may be shocked come draft day. It is interesting to watch them wander so far away from the empirical indicators the organization is flashing at them.

So why don't I want the organization to draft Bradford? Well, I will tell you once more:

1. Bradford has a surgically repaired throwing shoulder
2. We do not have an offensive line that can protect him
3. There will be no plugin play rookie QB solution for the Rams in 2010
4. If we select Bradford, he may well become the next Jim Plunkett story
5. I want to trade a condition 2011 pick to the Eagles for Michael Vick
6. I want to Draft Tim Tebow with the #33 pick in 2010
7. I want to fire Pat Shurmer
8. I want to tap Mike Leach as our new OC

There you have it ladies and germs. I am all in favor of drafting a QB in 2010. I just want to do this in the 2nd round, not the first. Fixing our QB problem is very important to me. I just need you media guys to come off it and recognize that Sam Bradford--good as he is--is not workable fit for the St. Louis Rams. Once again, I don't like criticizing Bradford. I think he is one hell of a good kid. I just know he is going to die if we draft him. If you love the kid, you don't want that for him. Neither do I. It doesn't advance our cause to kill Sam Bradford, and it sure doesn't do him any good does it?

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.

Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback

Michael Lombardi has quoted Bill Walsh many times saying "Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Even fewer are qualified to coach the position." We have established that Walsh was explicitly crapping on NFL talent scouts like Mel Kiper Jr when he said this.

Jeeeze! Why do you think a nice guy like Bill Walsh would say such a nasty thing like that about a guy like Mel Kiper Jr?

You know hind sight is 20/20. I think Bill was absolutely justified in saying this because over the 28 years of my study period we had:

• 38 first round QBs that absolutely went bust
• 22 first round QBs that made it
• 6 first round QBs that are middle-of-the-road cases, partial busts, partial success stories.
• 10 drafts in which no 1st round QBs were successful
• 32 ProBowl (or better) QBs selected outside the first round
• 4 undrafted QBs who turned into All-Pro guys

When you consider this stunning pile of facts, you have to wonder if somebody blind folded these scouts, spun them round-n-round, and put darts in their hands. The darts went all over the place. Dave's Law says that NFL QB success is randomly distributed with respect to talent scout grades.

This is not to mention the 9 QBs enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who were not first rounders.

The history of successful quarterbacks in the NFL is a true bugbear for the NFL Talent Scout. Nothing proves the tremendous fallibility of Mel Kiper Jr. better than the success rate of QBs in the first round over the course of the past 30 or so seasons.

Now that we have categorically proven that these fine chaps (like Mel Kiper Jr.) do not know what the fuck they are talking about, let us now consider the 2010 NFL Draft.

Kiper tells us that Tim Tebow is not NFL Quarterback material. Kiper tells us that Jimmy Clausen is a pro-system kid who is (perhaps) the most NFL ready QB in the draft. In view of all the facts that I have sited above, are you inclined to believe him?

I for one, do not believe him. I believe he is absolutely and completely wrong about this. I believe he is 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong about this. I mean to tell you he has a 0.00% chance of being even 0.001% right about this juxtaposition. I mean dead wrong and not even remotely close to being right.

I can site a stunning record of error which impeaches Mel Kiper Jr.'s credibility completely.

So Charles Davis and Michael Lombardi are breaking my heart

Just finished watching a segment of NFL Total Access in which the guys discused Tim Tebow's future... Partially with Touchdown Tim himself. Then Charles and Michael dropped the bomb on me. When asked what round he would finally go in, both Davis and Lombardi agreed that it would be round #1. "All it takes is for one team to fall in love with this kid and pull the trigger", said Michael Lombardi.

That wasn't all he said either. Lombardi also feels that Tebow must be drafted by a team with an offensive head coach; that is a former Offensive Coordinator. He does not believe that a team with a D.C. Head Coach (like the Rams and Steve Spagnuolo) can correctly develop this kid. Michael believes this is so because the Head Coach is going to have to develop a plan and program for Tebow and he's going to have to have the authority to carry it out. Lombardi suggested that the Denver Broncos and Josh McDaniels would be an ideal candidate for Tebow.

It should be noted, in passing, that Josh McDaniels was the guy responsible for turning the New England Patriots into a Spread-Offense team. The Spread is that "very quarterback friendly" system that McDaniels likes to talk about. The Denver Broncos favored their running game a lot this year only because they were nursing an uncertain defense and they lacked a franchise QB.

I find both of these points crushing. If Tebow goes in the 1st, we are going to have a very hard time getting him without making a deal. We might have to make a deal with Denver to ensure they can't get Tebow and we can. If it is true that only an O.C. headcoach can develop Tebow, we are sunk. We are happily installed with our D.C. headcoach Steve Spagnuolo.

I, however, disagree with Lombardi on this point. I think it would be easier for Spagnuolo to adapt to Tebow than any O.C. Headcoach around. All he has to do is turn to Pat Shurmer and say "You fired". Then all he has to do is make a phone call to Mike Leach and say "Are you interested in a job?" We would be set. Easy as pie. Easier for Spagnulo to do than McDaniels.

These were some mighty discouraging words though.