Jimmy Clausen, Mike Lombardi and Me

My position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, I was one of Jimmy Clausen’s most outspoken detractors. I went back and read a few of my blog posts in prep for this one, and I cringe at some of the ruthless, crushing, brutal statements I laid down. I was brutally honest. I had reason to be.

Those were desperate times. My Rams had hit the bottom of the barrel. The organization was going to change QBs, and that meant choosing a new QB somewhere in the 2010 draft. We all knew that. There was a loud and vocal Notre Dame contingent in the Midwest who were adamant that the Rams needed to select Jimmy Clausen #1 in the draft. Mel Kiper Jr. was pouring fuel on that fire. I had to stomp out the fire.

It wasn’t personal. I don’t hate the kid. I wish him success now that he is in the league. I just didn’t want my team to take him. Why? Well… I was pretty sure he was going to go bust for all the reasons I spelled out in detail. We were already in the shithouse. We could not afford to lose 5 years and another HQ regime on a busted #1 pick. The catastrophe had to be averted.

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, Mike Lombardi was pretty damn positive on Jimmy Clausen. Like many, he loved the fact that Clausen played under center for the ‘legendary’ (wft?) Charlie Weis. Like many, Lombardi suspected that Clausen might be the most pro-ready QB. Like so many, Lombardi felt that Clausen had fallen into a nearly ideal situation in Carolina. He was with a good team that had a solid running game, a good offensive line, and a good defense. Clausen was ostensibly the QB best setup for success in 2010. Or so they all said…

Well, here we are…

What a difference a single year makes. My Rams are no longer 1-15 but 7-9. The Panthers are no longer 8-8 but 2-14. We gained 6 wins. They lost 6 more games. We took Sam Bradford (over my objections) and they took Clausen (over my objections). The Panthers are drafting #1. We are drafting #14. What a remarkable flip-flop of positions.

My, my, my how everyone’s positions on Clausen have changed!

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2011

Lombardi, like everybody else, seems to have completely written off Clausen after a just few starts in 2010. Yes, it was ugly. It was even more ugly than I suggested. Lombardi and everybody else has some justification for the quick flip-flop of position.

Now you see Lombardi advocating the notion that Carolina must draft Blaine Gabbert with the top pick in this 2011 Draft.

My position on Clausen in 2011

You have no idea how awkward I feel writing the following paragraph. Were I any other guy, I would probably be crowing about how right I was, and how wrong everybody else was. I would pound my chest about how I took a stand against the draft experts and won. Granted, I sorta did a little bit of that here, but this is not what I have sat down to write.

My position on Clausen in 2011 is… eh… ah… er… give him another chance.

WHAT?

Yep.

NO!

Yep.

NO FUCKING WAY???

Yes way. Let me make the following points and I’ll just leave it at that.

Reasons for not drafting a QB and giving Clausen a chance in 2011

1. You hardly gave Clausen a chance in 2011
2. Having drafted this kid, you are morally obligated to give this kid something vaguely resembling an even break.
3. The whole team clearly suffered a massive breakdown this season.
4. This wasn’t exactly Clausen’s fault.
5. You didn’t get better results with Nat Moore.
6. One of the best reasons why Clausen is going bust now lies in the fact that he came out as a true 21 year old junior. Junior QBs go bust at a 90% rate in the NFL.
7. Lombardi is counseling you to take another 21 year old true junior.
8. Do you want another thin-dime of a chance with your #1 pick in 2011?
9. While I do believe Blaine Gabbert is a heck of a lot better than Clausen, I am still not sold on this guy, especially as the #1 pick overall.
10. I think the odds are perilously high that you will compound the bust of one true junior QB with another true Junior QB. The cost of this bust will be vastly higher.
11. If you are smart, you’ll trade down with the Bengals, get a 2nd round pick. Then you should select Patrick Peterson and Christian Ponder or (maybe) Jake Locker.
12. Even if Ponder is the guy you start by the end of the season, you may develop Clausen into a salable commodity in 2011. Get something back for him.

I must say I am a little annoyed…

I’ve been mentioning Mike Lombardi quite a bit lately. Although I like the guy, he annoys me tremendously with his advocacy of the QB position. Setting aside the concrete fact that the only good QB is a dead QB, it seems that Lombardi’s sole mission on Path to the Draft is to convince as many teams to take QBs as high in the first round as possible.

I am not nearly so sanguine about taking a QB in the draft. Knowing full well that you bare a 70% chance of going bust in a best-case scenario, this is not a gamble you take lightly. You don’t gamble like this every year, unless you are a crazy fool. You should be especially careful of gambling like this when you are stuck in the shithole. If you miss here, you are fucked for 5 years, and it will probably sink the current administration.

Just remember what Billy Devaney said to Marshall Faulk “When I drafted this kid, I had to pack-up my office. If he gets hurt, I’m going to be fired.” Draft one at your mortal risk.

Now… once again, I feel a little funny writing that last paragraph. Why? Well… you see, my Rams seem to be the latest primary beneficiaries of drafting a top-end QB. Yes, I know this is true. It is very good not need a QB, especially this year. The future looks bright for my Rams, and this is because we have a rising franchise QB. Thought I fought the hell out of him, Devaney turned out to be right, and I was wrong.

I want to say it one more time, so I make it perfectly clear: None of the QBs in this draft are strong enough to carry the weight of Sam Bradford’s jockstrap. I don’t feel particularly great about any of the QB prospects in this draft. Last year, I liked three of them, but not necessarily for my Rams.

Don’t let anybody deceive you: 2011 is a much worse year for QBs than 2010. There are a lot of absolutely sensational athletes in this draft; possibly the best we’ve ever seen. I don’t know if there is so much as one franchise QB in this draft. If there is, he probably isn’t one of the guys they are looking at in the 1^st round.

So Jim Harbaugh is now the head coach of the 49ers

Not a good move

As you know, Jim Harbaugh signed with the 49ers today. I am not particularly thrilled with this, although I am sure he is. Is this just a Ram fan disliking the arrival of a legit coach inside the division?

Nope, I don't think so. This ain't you papa's 49er organization. As you know, Eddie DeBartolo is long gone. His sister, Denise, is the real owner. She keeps pushing Josh out front of her to hide the fact that she is the true owner of the franchise, but she is--in point of fact--the owner. Believe you me, Denise is no Eddie.

Jason La Canfora explicitly said the some of Harbaugh's closest advisors warned him that the 49er front office is not configured for long-term coaching success. The 49ers have had a bunch of HCs since Denise took over. None of them has lasted long. She finished moochie pretty quickly. Several other high quality guys have come and gone. They have not had success. The reason is that the 49ers are now a Busch-league organization.

Sorry bitches, I just had to be honest about that fact.

I felt Harbaugh should stay at Stanford, but if he had to come out, he should have closed the deal with John Elway. I know that wouldn't suit Jim Harbaugh's location requirements very well, but it would have provided the best opportunities for success. The Broncos have had a bad moment over these past two seasons, but they are not a Busch league outfit. I still believe Pat Bowlen is one of the better owners in this league, and drastically better than Denise.

What are the prospects?

At the moment, the 49ers are still pretty deep in a state of denial about their present offensive unit. The truth is that they have three cornerstones of this offensive unit, none of whom get along well with each other. Vernon Davis, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree are know for their bickering and conflicts. They show lousy offensive chemistry.

Somehow, probably because the 49er organization wants this point de-emphasized in the media, all of these conflict incidents have been down-played. They wish to say that all their problems are simply the result of poor quarterbacking. Certainly, your quarterback problems are terrible, but tossing all the blame for your offensive problems on the QB is absolute bullshit. Even the best QB prospect is going to have problems playing with this back-biting rabble.

If you press the 49ers, they will admit that not all of their problems will be solved by acquiring a franchise QB. They admit that they also need a good offensive coordinator. Respectfully, I say that is bullshit as well. You had something like 7 offensive coordinators during the 6 year history Alex Smith, and none of them worked out. Oh, but that was Alex Smith's fault. Really? The way I recall it, Alex Smith wasn't even the starter during 3 of those 6 seasons. He could not have been the entire problem.

You need to come to grips with the fact that the 49ers offensive problems are deep and chemical. You are not going to fix it by simply getting Jim Harbaugh and some quarterback. No matter how sexy Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree look together, they are a lousy couple. They don't work together well. Now Frank Gore has two surgically reconstructed knees and a broken hip. How much longer do you think he has?

Frankly, I don't like Jim Harbaugh's prospects at all unless he rebuilds that offense. A full skill-position rebuild is necessary.

Harbaugh needs a QB like a man in the desert needs water

Whilst getting a franchise QB is not a panacea for the 49ers' offensive woes, it is absolutely essential that they get one. Who is that going to be? There aren't any on the market, unless perhaps you want Donovan McNabb. Now that Luck is out of the draft, I don't see any sure-fire options in this draft. Would they take a risk on Vince Young or Cam Newton? Somehow I doubt it. The QB prospects in the draft don't look that good this time around.

Do you think he might want to acquire Jimmy Clauson cheap? This is another young Virgo QB, but not nearly as athletic or smart as Andrew Luck. Yes, it is true, Clausen is a Virgo, and I am not into him. You might be better off with a baby-Taurus like Cam Newton, but I am not crazy about that choice either.

Are you thinking what I am thinking?

Now that Jim Harbaugh has taken the 49er job, I wonder if he is going make some phone calls and try to convince Andrew Luck to change his mind. The 49ers need a quarterback, and they need one badly. Harbaugh needs a QB and he needs one badly.

How would that do him any good? The 49ers don't have the top pick. Surely you are right about this, but as usual, the team at the top of the list and the bottom of the heap is ready to deal if you will enrich them. I bet a deal including Crabtree and Davis would bring that pick to the 49ers.

Right now, I don't like what I see in the tea leaves. This whole thing was a year premature. I think Harbaugh forced a situation that just ain't right.

What about our 2010 rookie quarterback crop?

So how the hell are our young quarterbacks doing this year anyhow?

It is not my style to comment so much and so often about Quarterbacks. The position is overrated to the point of demigodhood by most media people. I categorically reject all the delusions of godhood. I still believe in the team concept. With that said, you know I got deeply ensconced in the in rather vigorous quarterback debate during the 2010 draft cycle. I had a lot to say about quarterbacks earlier this year. I said it early and often.

There were a couple reasons for this great exception to policy. First, a couple of kids I loved watching in college just happened to be graduating last year. Those kids were Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy. Second of all, my Rams were known to be in the market for a new Quarterback, and I was hoping to impact that process.

There was also the matter of the Notre Dame alumni try to force Jimmy Clausen on the Rams, but I will downplay that matter.

We all know how the story played out. Billy Devaney took Sam Bradford over my strenuous objections. Josh McDaniels selected Tim Tebow in the first round. Jimmy Clausen slid to the middle of the 2nd round where he was selected by the Panthers. Quarterback guru Mike Holmgren absconded with Colt McCoy in the 3rd round.

So how are the kids doing? Well... it's interesting.

I've had ring-side seats for the dawn of the Sam Bradford era, and the kid looks a hell of a lot better than I thought he was. We all knew he was a highly accurate passer in college. However, I did not expect him to be quite the same after the surgery.

It turns out that he's better. As we all know, he spent months after his shoulder surgery in the weight room, mostly working on his lower-body. I have heard many quarterbacks say that arm-strength is the most over-rated aspect of the quarterback's toolkit. Most of your throwing velocity comes from hip torque and torso twist. Well, if that be the case, it might explain why Sam seems to be throwing harder and faster than ever. He definitely torques his hips when he throws. It might also explain why he has greater running speed than I remember.

I hate to make Jinxy statements, and I don't want to over-sell the truth, but... Ehmmm… Let's put it this way. Several sanguine Ram fans on the Bleacher Report site were pretty adamant that our team nailed the best QB to come out of college in the past 3 or 4 seasons. Let's just say, I'm almost sold on that proposition. I don't think it is a controversial statement to say that Sam has had the best rookie campaign of any of these young kids. There's been enough there to shock a guy like me.

But then there is Colt McCoy. I remember being dismayed when I heard Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network downgrading Colt, painting him as a bust pick. Mike believed that McCoy just didn't have the sort of arm that was necessary to succeed in this league. I though that was a very strange statement coming from a guy who calls himself a disciple of Bill Walsh.

I knew Mike Lombardi's statements about McCoy were pure bullshit. He must not watched McCoy much during his four years at Texas. The kid is a pure winner, and more Joe Montana than Joe Montana. I am sure Bill Walsh would have had a flaming hard-on for Colt if he was still involved in football during the 2010 draft.

Just as sure as I am sitting here, I know that Mike Holmgren recognized those traits in McCoy, and that's why Mr. President drafted him in Cleveland. That's why Mr. President came down from the president's booth and began working with McCoy personally during training camp. I think this is why McCoy has given the Browns a competency at QB that they haven't had in ages. Just keep watching Colt. Everything is going to be just fine in Cleveland.

One of the bleak spots of the 2010 NFL Campaign for me, personally, has been the Tim Tebow story in Denver. As you know, Tim has seen very limited action. The good news is that he’s been fantastic on the 5 or 6 plays they have let him run. The bad news is that he has only run 5 or 6 plays this season. This has been a great disappointment to me.

McDaniels seems to be replaying the 1980 Joe Montana campaign script for Tim Tebow. They send him on in carefully selected situations where he can score touchdowns. The key is to build his self confidence and the team's confidence in him.

Unfortunately, the Broncos are a foundering ship. It is unlikely they will finish 8-8 for the 3rd straight season. It is more likely they will fall down to something 6-10. There have been rumblings inside Denver that owner Pat Bowlen will not guarantee McDaniel's job in 2011. Due to the pending lockout, Bowlen may not make an immediate change in 2011, but then again he just might.

Certainly, McDaniel's has made a lot of terrible pseudo-Patriot moves. He was close to the top of my shit-list until the moment he selected Tim Tebow. I was down against Josh to the uttermost farthing until the moment he selected Tim Tebow. Any guy smart enough to select Tebow can't be all bad. Not all bad, but probably 90% bad. If he gets fired, we'll have to say he earned his ticked on the first thing smoking out of town.

But what happens to Tim Tebow if Josh McDaniels gets the sack? This is the question that has plagued my worried mind. Certainly, few in the NFL were committed to Tebow as a Quarterback in 2010. McDaniels was one of those few. Unless someone like Jon Gruden is selected as the next HC of the Broncos, I don't know what Tim's fate will be.

Lately, one of the vogue trends in NFL Football is to allow any new HC to "pick his people." This means blowing up the ship, both offensively and defensively and reconstructing things according to the vision of perfection you subscribe to as a coach. It doesn't matter if the present talent crop is good, bad or indifferent. As a new HC, you have the right to blow up the ship and start all over again. If this happens, Tim could become a casualty of organizational politics.

Certainly, if you get a run-of-the-mill candidate off the coaching retred cycle, said coaching candidate may not favor Tim Tebow. Many of these fellows don't like southpaws. Many more dislike QBs who make plays outside of the pocket with their feet. Personally, I love them, but that makes me a member of the minority report. The majority report says that guys like Steve Young, Michael Vick and Tim Tebow ain't no damn good to God or this country. St. Vince Lombardi would not approve.

It would really suck if Tim Tebow failed to make it in this league through no fault of his own, but because of the vicissitudes of organizational politics.

Finally, have the case of Jimmy Clausen. This guy may have the odd distinction of being the most advocated draft pick in Notre Dame Alumni history. In the run up to the draft, the Notre Dame forensics team was working 24/7 on his behalf advocating his case. The ferocity they brought to the table surprised me.

To this day, I believe that getting Jimmy picked high was a linchpin of Notre Dame's 2010 (and beyond) recruitment strategy. Needless to say, things haven't work out as they hoped they would.

What I can't understand is why the NFL establishment bought into the Notre Dame Forensics argument. IMHO, there was no part of the eyeball test that Clausen passed during the scoutting process. I never saw what they claimed to see in the kid. I never even suspected he would be mentioned as a serious NFL QB candidate during his three years at Notre Dame.

It shocked the shit out of me when some advocates suggested the Rams would take him with the absolute #1. I acted to crush that theory as quickly as possible. I was only partially successful. Quite a controversey arose. I got the rep of being a Clausen hater, and an Anti-Catholic, anti-Notre Dame guy on the Bleacher Report.

Before continuing, I should mention that I bare no personal grudge against Clausen. It would suit me just fine if he turned out to be a success with the Panthers. I just didn't want my team attempting to rebuild around him. I believed, and still do, that he's going to go bust. My Rams could not afford to take that plunge.

To this day, I seriously doubt he is an NFL quarterback. Certainly, better candidates than Clausen have gone bust. Still, for his sake and the sake of the Panthers, I wish him luck. It looks like he is going to need it.

Clausen did not win the starting job straight out of boot camp in 2010. This fact surprised many. Nat Moore performed very poorly coming out of the gate. After a few weeks, be it of injury or lack of performance, Clausen got his first start. The results were not good. During one game, he had a QB rating of ZERO after the first half of play.

Clausen got the hook quickly, and Nat Moore because the starter again. I have family living in North Carrolina, and they told me that the Panther fans went into an immediate funk, believing the organization made another mistake drafting Clausen. Even a detractor such as me was surprised at the speed of this write-off. Lately, it has become fashionable for the local media to ask John Fox why he didn't take Colt McCoy.

Wow...

Guess what? It ain't over yet. Moore gets hurt, and Clausen gets another chance. The second time around, he looks good until he gets hammered by Aquib Talibe on the final offensive play of the game against the Bucs. Thus ends the second act of Clausen's rookie campaign. We'll see if he gets a third strike as a rookie. The news today indicates that he will probably start week 12.

I once called out Michael Lombardi, a McCoy detractor and a Clausen advocate, telling him I would crawl to Ravenna Italy on my arthritic knees if Clausen ever became any kind of NFL Quarterback. So far I am not worried out that pledge.

That's my boy

Tim Tebow is the son I never had. He even looks a little like me.

In all seriousness. Things are shaping up just the way I thought, except on the Clausen/McCoy front. They're a little transposed in these statistics here.

No need to worry about McCoy just yet. It's not the first time Mike Holmgren has worked with a young guy who threw some interceptions. This will get straightened out.

Clausen looked better than I expect, but not as good as the Notre Dame forensics team would have you believe. All-in-all, that is a better showing than I expected from him.

The real story here is how well Tim Tebow did. If the little rotten SOB hadn't dropped his second pass it would have been a beautiful touchdown bomb. Yes, I know he suffered bruised ribs on the touchdown run. Don't worry. They will outfit him with a flack jacket and everything will be alright.

Some say that his old motion showed itself again. Wanna know a little secret? It doesn't matter, it never did, and never will in the future. A lot of great ones--including Johnny U--had a funky throwing motion. You notice that the funky motion got him the highest rating of the day, and it would have been higher had the touchdown bomb been caught.

I told you so.

Now the NFL Network is openly discussing the fact that the Rams have a bad offensive line and that it has been bad for a long time. They are no longer toting the Billy Devaney line. The pios kant is going out the window. Have a look the video here.

Poor Sam. Poor, poor Sam. Sam, if I was the boss, I wouldn't drafted you just to flush your career down the crapper.

Final thoughts about the big four QBs in this draft

I heard Michael Lombardi denigrating Colt McCoy on a recent post-mortem edition of Path to the Draft. He seemed to think McCoy didn't have the ability to be NFL Quarterback. In particular his arm strength and accuracy just weren't great enough to be quality starter in the NFL.

Now doesn't that just beat all? I thought Lombardi was Mr. 49er. He studied at the footstool of Bill Walsh right? I though Joe Montana and Bill Walsh proved (together) that a QB with a 5 out of 10 in terms of athletic ability could be a 9.5 out of 10 as an NFL QB. Now Colt will study under Mike Holmgren, the premier QB developer in the league (the greatest student of Walsh), and Lombardi doesn't think Colt will make it? That did not compute.

Let me be the first to say it: Colt is going to do just fine in Cleveland. The people there are going to love him.

On the other hand, Lombardi, and everybody else, seems to think Clausen can be the A.P. Offensive Rookie of the year. I am not going to rehash my case against Clausen. I will simply say this: If Clausen turns out to be any kind of good NFL QB, I will walk on my surgically repaired & arthritic knees to Ravenna Italy. The women are beautiful there, I am told.

I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb

The shocker has happened. Philly traded McNabb to the Redskins on Easter Sunday 2010 for the #37 pick in the 2010 draft, a #3 in the 2011, and a conditional #4 in 2011. The conditional pick can rise if the Redskins win more games, posting a better record. Most Philly fans seem glad that the McNabb era is over. They are also shocked that the trade happened inside the division. They seem to be happy that the Kolb era will commence now. They are unhappy that they will face McNabb in a Redskin uniform twice per year for the indefinite future.

CBS Draft Central was the first to publish the opinion that the real looser in this trade is Jimmy Clausen, not Jason Campbell. Campbell was expected to go elsewhere this season. This is only a confirmation of that notion. Clausen was thought, by some, to be the guy Shanahan would develop for the Redskin's future. It is pretty damn clear that Clausen slides past #4 in this season's draft. I believe it is extremely unlikely that Holmgren will select him. Ergo his very first possible landing point is at #9 with the Buffalo Bills.

Pray for the Bills' sake that the GM does not try to take the cheese out of the mouse trap.

This brings us to the Redskins feelings about this. Many D.C. fans are expressing subdued jubilation. They believe the Eagles, an arch nemesis and tormentor, will now spiral downward. A city which is 90% Black is happy to receive (arguably) the greatest Black QB ever. We should leave some room here for Hall of Famer Warren Moon.

On the other hand, Redskin fans are all-to-familiar with the pattern of grabbing over-priced washed-up veterans who under-perform when Dan Snyder gives them fat contracts. This is not just an artifact/relic of George Allen and the 1970s skins. It is a persistent pattern that continues to this day. Many of these fans had already pinned their hopes on Jimmy Clausen as their QB of the future. Shanahan is known as one of those few men in league qualified to evaluate and coach the QB. They hopped he would use his powers to groom Clausen into the Redskins' franchise QB for the next 10+ seasons.

This brings us to Shanahan. Nobody believes the Skins are taking a QB with that massive #4 pick in the 2010 Draft. Nobody believes the Skins are going to do a deal with the Rams for the #1 pick. That ship has sailed out of the harbor. Can anyone explain to me why Shanahan would want to pass on a QB in this year's draft?

• It is possible that he was out-voted. Bruce Allen and Synder could have pushed this deal through.
• It is possible that he felt Bradford was unobtainable. The Rams will take him or demand too much for him.
• It is possible he was concerned about Bradford's durability. The Redskins allowed more sacks (46) than the Ram (44) in 2009. That is a sad, sad commentary. It should be noted that Green Bay allowed the greatest number of sacks (51) in 2009.
• It is possible that Shanahan just didn't see what he wanted in Clausen.

As I mentioned in title line: I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb. Maybe this is Shanahan's decision tree? Maybe this was the read progression?

There we have it again folks. Shanahan and Holmgren are arguably the best QB developers in the league right now. There are a few others. Andy Reid and Mike Martz are two more. I seriously doubt Charley Weis is one of them. What do we say about Clausen now that Shanahan and Holmgren have apparently voted no-confidence in the kid?

Maybe I am right and maybe Kiper Jr. is wrong? Maybe? Maybe McShay is right and Kiper is wrong? Maybe?

Watch for Shanahan and Holmgren to go after Jevan Snead. The kid is going to be cheap, and he has real potential.

Oh, so now Florio is taking a stab at McShay?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/31/todd-mcshay-backlash-builds/

In one of the most bluntly crafted hit-pieces written since I myself last took up the keyboard, Mike Florio just took a wild stab at Todd McShay. His points are as follows:

1. McShay mislead Jevan Snead into entering the draft
2. McShay is bad, Kiper is good.
3. McShay is bad because he has no connections, and he doesn't like Clausen
4. Kiper is good because he works hard, and does like Clausen
5. The best amateur draftnik is Mike Mayock

HAHAHAHhaahahahaha! Oh bouy! Where or where do I begin deconstructing this pile of shit??? So many choices, so little time. This has to be one of the most topsy-turvy, upside down, ass-backwards, perversions I've read in years! Almost every aspect of this hit piece is entirely wrong, but then again, so too are the McNabb rumors and the Tebow rumors. Fabrications, one and all.

For the record, allow me to state the following:

1. Since the day Jevan Snead entered the draft, persistent reports have held that Snead had trouble with his grades. College was not his strong suit. Some reports stated Snead was close to loosing his athletic eligibility due to academic probation. I seem to recall reading this on Mel Kiper's ESPN blog, as well as other places.
2. Although I am not hyper about either of these two 'scouts', McShay is much better and Kiper Jr is a lot worse. All you have to do to prove this case is go through Kiper Jr.'s words on the numerous (39) all-out-bust QBs in the 1st around of the draft over the past 30 years. There's your proof. McShay doesn't have a deep track record, but he is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
3. The greatest single feather in McShay's cap is that he is not going along with the Jimmy Clausen rubbish. If I object to his ratings of Clausen, I object to the fact that he has not gone far enough in critiquing this kid. Everyone stops with the intangibles. You should go further than that. I don't believe the kid has the level of talent everyone says he does. The Pro-System he comes from did little to help Brady Quinn, a more athletic QB candidate, to succeed in this league. Clausen is an obvious bust risk, but no one speaks openly about his risk factors. Clausen is vastly more risky than McShay leads one to believe.
4. Kiper is good because he works hard and likes Clausen??? NO, NO,NO, NO! Well, I respect the work, but he is absolutely and completely wrong about Clausen. Clausen is a true junior from an mediocre program. If he is drafted in the 1st round, the actuarial tables predict he has a 90% chance of going bust. That is way to high a risk for me. Florio could not be more wrong. He is just as wrong and wrong can be here. Florio must have come from Notre Dame or something. I understand he is an Italian Lawyer from West Virginia and life long fan of the Vikings. They don't say where he got his degree, though.
5. Mike Mayock is no amateur. Mike Mayock is the draft scout for NFL Films. He is the guy who does most of the scouting for the NFL Network. Calling Mike Mayock an amateur draftnik is like calling Chief Justice John Roberts an amateur lawnik. Jesus is that bogus! Furthermore, if Florio ever watched the NFL Network, he would know that Mayock says many of the same things McShay says about Clausen. He's a little less blunt about it, but he raises very similar concerns. Like McShay, Mayock doesn't go far enough in stating the risks associated with Clausen's profile.

We should note in passing that an unnamed source is attributed with all of these comments, but I don't believe that for a moment. Florio crafted this piece ex-nillo, as has done in so many other cases.

One final point, I want it to be known that I am a fan of Jevan Snead. I think he has a lot more athletic ability than Clausen does. Somebody is going to get a real steal in this kid. I saw a couple of his better games against Tennessee and LSU, and I was impressed. That blood-bath in the Cotton Bowl aught to be called The Body Bag Game II. I don't hold that one against him, sometimes all you can do is win, and he did.

It should be noted that Snead took one of the most vicious hits in College Football history in that Cotton Bowl game. Not only did he come back in a few minutes and play again, he actually played better after the hit! He'll never have to prove his manhood in any other way.

The one question about Jevan, and its a big one, is his intellect. Does he have the brain of an NFL QB? Given the complexity and deception of NFL defensive schemes these day, every NFL Quarterback has to be pretty damn smart. You also have to be studious, disciplined and diligent in your mental preparation. This preparation does resemble academic work, but the subject is a lot more fun. I hold out the possibility that Snead's mental effort will rise the moment he is able to work exclusively with the subject he loves: Football.

Mike Holmgren and Tim Tebow

The echos of the Brady Quinn-dump are echoing and reverberating around the league. Mike Holmgren effectively told the league he couldn't work with Brady Quinn. That is saying an awful lot. Holmgren suffered Brett Favre for awhile before he became a good QB. As Jamie Dukes put it, Mike Holmgren is known as one of the premier QB developers in this league. Yet Holmgren has effectively told the league he sees no value in Quinn at all.

This is a guy who knows QB-flesh when he sees it. Holmgren's reputation is well earned. In fact he may be under-rated. Consider this:

1. He learned his craft under Bill Walsh, perhaps the most revered QB developer ever.
2. He had a hand in Joe Montana's development.
3. He developed Steve Young
4. He developed Steve Bono
5. He developed Brett Favre
6. He developed Mark Brunell
7. He developed Matt Hasselbeck

Bono is the only guy on that list who didn't make it to the ProBowl. He had a rep for being a super-sub though, so he wasn't bad. Note the fact that he has 2 guys in the Hall of Fame, and one more headed for the Hall of Fame. That is three Hall of Fame QBs on one resume. That is shocking.

Oh yeah! Kurt Warner also passed through town in Green Bay back in 1995. Do you remember that? He couldn't get a slot on that near-championship team because Favre and Brunell were already there. Wow...

When you consider Holmgren's credentials carefully, you have to acknowledge that this probably the best QB man alive in the world today. What is Holmgren thinking about Jimmy Clausen? well you can read about it in the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. Here are a couple of plain interpretations of this statement:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/nfl-draft/mike-holmgren-is-latest-to-say.html

http://www.uhnd.com/articles/nfl-irish/mike-holmgren-isnt-jimmy-clausen-6419/

I concur with the summary given in both of those pieces. Holmgren is saying that Clausen in not worth the high pick he is likely to become. He would not take him that high. Why should he? Quinn and Clausen are two peas from the same pod. They came out the same school, the same coaching, and the same offensive system. Unfortunately for Clausen, Quinn seemed to have a better athletic endowment, and a better TD/INT ratio. Quinn looked like the better candidate coming out of college. Having just flushed the better looking bowl of water, why go back to the same well for more?

So what does Holmgren intend to do? He is not going to select a QB in the first couple of rounds. He will draft in the 3rd round or later. He also plans to host Tim Tebow in Cleveland, and he is admitting that he likes Tebow. A simple inference from these facts is as follows: Holmgren will take Tebow in the 3rd if he can get him.

Now wouldn't this just fit the pattern? A mobile, athletic, strong armed competitor who is raw as hell. Isn't that what Holmgren likes? Does that sound like Steve Young, Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and Matt Hasselbeck? Yes it does. Like Young and Brunell, Tebow is a southpaw.

There has already been talk about this on the NFL Network's Path to the Draft. Jamie Dukes was the only guy to cast doubt on the scenario, as it would force Holmgren to come out of his President's booth and do some coaching. Now do you think that is really a problem? Don't you think Holmgren would love do it again? Just one more time? Especially given a dazzling candidate like Tim Tebow, arguably the best college football player of all time? I don't believe Holmgren is a guy who wants to take his hand out of the soil.

Suppose Holmgren knows championship metal when he sees it. What would developing Tim Tebow into an All-Pro QB do for his reputation? Here is a kid labeled as a non-NFL QB by many. Turning 'lead' into 'gold' one more time would pretty well cement Holmgren's reputation as a Hall of Fame caliber QB developer. Yet Holmgren may well know the facts ain't that bad. He probably knows the job isn't that big, especially give a driven student. Of course, it's easier when the kid is made out of gold in the first place.

Suppose this scenario comes to pass? Don't you think this would validate everything I have been telling you about the false system of QB evaluation we are currently using in the NFL draft? Suppose Tebow were to hit big under Homgren's tutelage? What would this tell you about how we evaluate and develop QBs?

So if Mike Holmgren is smart enough to figure all this out by his lonesome, why aren't my Rams?

Mike Holmgren is showing you why they took the GM power away from him in Seattle

Things are spinning out of control in Cleveland rapidly. The Browns have made a series of 4 moves at the QB position, all of which are questionable individually, but more so when you put them together.

First Derek Andersen is released, then Seneca Wallace is acquired from Seattle. Does that constitute an upgrade? I am not sure. Then the Browns sign Jake Del Homme, and pay him starter money. For a guy with an organic deformity in his throwing elbow, post-Tommy John surgery, Del Homme sure is swimming in cash. I guess nice guys do finish first after all. Then the Browns dump Brady Quinn for next to nothing. A former first-round QB has been cashed out for an unknown Fullback (now an extinct position in the NFL) and a couple of late choices, one in 2011, and another in 2012. That is an all-out purgative dump.

So now you have the interception/sack/fumble machine as your starting QB in Cleveland, or at least he is getting starter money. You also have Seneca Wallace backing him up. I see a net gain of 0 points on the score board. These are pointless, fruitless, upgrade-less moves. These are just moves to make moves. You could have lost just as many games in 2010 without making any of these moves. Why the effort? To "send a message"? That's pointless. The point of flushing two worthless QBs is nullified by the point of adding two more worthless QBs. Stupid!

This is just dreadful. If Bill Devaney had done this in St. Louis, I would be dropping napalm on his head. You see! This is why they wouldn't give Holmgren the GM power in Green Bay, and this is why they took it away from him in Seattle. He is not good with personnel. He makes bad moves.

Whilst we are on this subject, let's talk about great young prospects who come out of Notre Dame, coached by 'the great' Charlie Weis, who have experiance in a true pro system, who have all the physical tools, and who can do the 3-5-7.

Brady Quinn was a Mel Kiper Jr. favorite. He was given all kinds of great press by Kiper. Now he is an absolute certified bust. Nobody wanted to trade anything for him, then Cleveland accepts something close to nothing for him. Will Quinn start in Denver? Not unless lightning strikes. Jason La Canfora was fairly adamant that this is strictly a depth-move for Denver. Quinn is now a certified bust.

Now how in the hell can that be? How could this have happened? He came out of Notre Dame! This is the #3 football factory in the land according to NFL Films! He was coached by Charlie Weis! He played in a Pro System in college! He looked so good doing the 3-5-7! He had all the tools!

What this points out is that your biases are bullshit. Your methods for evaluation are tremendously flawed. Your criteria are fucked up. Everyone who is listening to this sort of rubbish in 2010 had better beware of Jimmy Clausen. The arguments made in his favor don't add up to a hill of beans. Buyer beware!

So did you hear about the Wonderlic 2010?

As the Rams are a team interesting in QB, probably in the 2nd round, many astute fans were interested to read about the results of the Wonderlic test inflicted (yes inflicted) upon the QBs at the NFL Scouting Combine. Every player had to take the test. Only the QB scores seem to attract any real interest.

What the hell is the Wonderlic? It's a standardized intelligence test intended to measure problem solving potential. It is not an achievement test, like a spelling B, or a math challenge. You get 12 minutes to take the test. You have 50 problems to solve. If solve only 1 correctly, you score only one point. If you solve all 50 correctly, you score 50 points.

The average score for all QBs tested is just 24. The average for a STARTING QB in the NFL is 28.5. The average score for all Centers is 25. The average score for an OT is 26. How about 'dem apples? Computer programmers, such as myself, have an average score of 29. I would be willing to bet that I would score just a little higher than that. I am no mean programmer. The Chemistry professionals tally an average of 31.

Some quarterbacks have posted notoriously low scores. Michael Vick scored a 10. Akili Smith scored a 9. Vince Young scored a 6 on his first pass. They allowed him a mulligan, and he scored 15 the second time around. Some quarterbacks have shot the lights out. Matt Leinart scored 35. Tony Romo scored 37. Eli Manning score 39. Alex Smith scored 40. Former Ram QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (of Harvard) is rumored to have scored a 50. He denied that. Other reports place him at 48. He only said he knew he left one answer blank.

Does this predict performance on the field? I doubt it. Vince Young is a better NFL QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week. There is your maximum high-low differential, and performance points in the other direction. Vick is also more dangerous than Fitzpatrick.

Ultra-heavyweight Canton QB Dan Marino notoriously scored a 16 on his Wonderlic. This may have been one of the reasons he slipped down the board on draft day. He is one of the greatest pure passers the world has ever known. In terms of purity of passing, it is Marino, Van Brocklin and Manning,

So how did our 2010 crop of lads score today?

1. Tebow = 22
2. Clausen = 23
3. McCoy = 25
4. Bradford = 36

They eye-popping score is Bradford's 36. He stands out amongst his peers. Rumor has it that Bradford also shot the lights out of the scoreboard in the personal interviews he did. Everybody was very impressed with him. If he is able to routinely score 36, he has the smarts to impress NFL decision makers.

Let us review the following three facts with some interest:

• The average of all QBs tested is 24
• The average of all starting NFL QBs is 28.5
• The average of the last 7 winning QBs in the Super Bowl is 30. (Eli biased that score up with his massive 39. Brady also pushed it up with his 33.)

As you can see, there is only one kid in this 2010 crop with a Wonderlic score that lines up with your team's best aspirations.

But does this really prove anything? A lot of busted picks scored high on the Wonderlic. Some very good QBs scored low. There is a more general controversy associated with standardized intelligence testing. There is a theory of background bias which suggests that you cannot write a culture neutral test. Whilst I have never taken a Wonderlic test myself, I must say the following. Standardized testing does measure the mind. It may not measure the dimensions you are concerned with, but it does measure intelligence, achievement, and cultural competence. All of these things are important.

If I have complaint, it is only this: I would like to see the SAT, ACT, and GREs on these kids as well. I would pay closest attention to the GRE (Graduate Review Examination) to determine if these kids got something out of their time in college, and if they have the potential for graduate work.

On the subject of Tim Tebow: Is Tebow's score bad? No. He was just 2 points off the average. His score is the same as Brett Favre's and it is higher than Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw (15) and Dan Marino (16). Reports that he flunked the test are bullshit. He was within 1 point of golden hype Jimmy Clausen.

So what have I gotten out of this? A real head-ache problem. As a computer programmer with a fairly high aptitude shown on most tests, I am biased towards individuals who can score high on these kinds of tests. I am horrified by the stupidity of ordinary people, several times a day on an average day.

On the other hand, as training Anthropologist with a lot of courses in human evolutionary biology under my belt, I can tell you that intelligence is adaptive, but only up to a point. It is a well known fact that exceptionally intelligent people fail to reproduce at an alarming rate. Ergo, in the strictest Darwinian sense of the term, high intelligence can be maladaptive. There are athletes who think to much on the field. These guys get into momentary conundrums they cannot solve rapidly because they are thinking about to many scenarios.

Regarding QBs, Kurt Warner was recently asked if he thought Matt Leinart would be a successful QB in Arizona. Kurt expressed doubt. He said that he knew Matt was book smart. He knew Matt had athletic ability. However, Matt has trouble turning his book knowledge into instant action and reaction on the field. Could that be because Matt's size 35 brain is cogitating too many scenarios when he needs to be rapidly decisive as Kurt Warner was? I think the answer is yes.

Marshall loves to say that thought is the enemy of speed. The more you think the more you stink.

Nevertheless, even with Marshall's words ringing in my ears, I have to be brutally honest: Bradford just piqued my interest for the first time in this NFL Draft season. I need to contain my biases, but Sam is looking a whole lot better to me all of a sudden.

We need to remember that we do not have the offensive line to protect this kid or make him a success. He will have to sit for a year minimum whilst we try to develop and build a better offensive line. I don't know if anyone will be able to bear 0.00 productivity out of our top pick in the year 2010. Rushing him in will be a recipe for disaster though.

Honestly, Suh in the 1st, Tebow in the 2nd, and Vick by trade still seems like a much more coherent strategy for success.

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.

The only time it ever worked out, Dallas and Troy Aikman

Each and every year, a team fresh off a disastrous season selects #1 overall in the NFL Draft. This fine year of 2010, that team is is my Rams. Many times, this team fresh off of disaster elects a quarterback with that first overall pick in the draft. When they do so, they are full of hopes and dreams that this guy will turn the ship around, raise the fortunes of the team, lead them to many Super Bowl victories, and make a dynasty out of a poor team. The young man is anointed as the savior of the franchise.

How often does it work out? I can find only one clear-cut case in NFL history where it did work out. That fellow was Troy Aikman of UCLA, selected #1 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the 1989 NFL Draft.

It wasn't Terry Bradshaw. He was considered a bust for a bunch of seasons before the 1978 rules changes, changed his fortunes as a passer. He still threw about 27 TDs and 24 Ints per season after that.

We also have problems with Peyton Manning here, but the Colts cannot truly be considered a dynasty at this point. They have a bunch of good seasons, but only 1 Super Bowl victory. Peyton could still lock down a couple more rings before he is done. If so, we will be able to say that there were two clear cut cases, but at this moment there is only one.

What about John Elway? Did that really work out for the Colts who drafted him? No.

What about Jim Plunkett? Did that really work out for the Patriots who drafted him? Hummmm... Nah, not really. It worked okay for the Raiders... eventually.

What about Eli Manning? Did that work out for the Chargers who took him? No.

What about Michael Vick? Aaaahhhh... How do you think the Falcons view that pick now?

How about JaMarcus Russell?

No folks, there is only one clear cut case where drafting a QB at the top of the first round ever produced a savior, a Hall Of Famer, multi-championship dynasty, and everything the organization ever wanted when they took the guy. That was Troy Aikman.

This is the reason why Aikman is still the Golden Boy of the NFL. This is why he is revered as a god-like QB by all those who watched his career. This is why people keep wondering if he is going to run for president someday. They expect him to win, too.

Aikman shouldered the pressure of being the Dallas Cowboy QB and savior with little signs of stress. He took one hell of beating in his first year as a pro with few signs of injury. He survived with his confidence and his health intact. He was accepted by Cowboy greats like Roger Staubach immediately as another Cowboy great. He was at his best in the NFC Championship games and Super Bowls. He led the Cowboys on a tear through the 1990s. They won 3 Super Bowls in just 4 years. They would have had more, but the salary cap and poor head coaches killed them. Aikman was not the limiting factor in the equation at any time. He survived a nasty concussion administered by Dennis Brown. He never had a personal scandal during his entire life. He went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He was one hell of player, and a better man.

As my Rams get ready to draft in this fine year of 2010, we need to ask ourselves a couple of very important questions:

1. Is Sam Bradford Troy Aikman?
2. Is Jimmy Clausen Troy Aikman?
3. Is Sam Bradford Peyton Manning?
4. Is Jimmy Clausen Peyton Manning?

I think the answers to 1 & 3 are clear and decisive "NO!" I rolled around on the floor laughing my ass off a few seconds ago when I wrote questions #2 and #4. Clausen is in no danger of being mistaken for Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning. Why don't you stand Clausen next to Aikman right now and see whether you notice some difference between these two men?

Some extremely foolish Ram fans may protest that I cannot downgrade these two candidates by comparing them to the most extreme cases of QB success in NFL history. Oh yeah? Why the hell not? You are talking about spending the #1 pick overall in the entire draft. We have only 1 and maybe 2 models of success for that pick. We need to use those two guys as the benchmark comparison for our candidates. If we don't have candidates that look like Aikman and Manning, we need to pass on them with that #1 pick.

One final thing. If you ask me which quarterback in this draft most resembles Aikman in terms of tangibles and intangibles, only one name comes to mind: Tim Tebow.

Just a little disappointed in Tim Tebow

So, I have been told that Tim Tebow will not throw at the NFL combine starting this Thursday. He gives no medical reason, not even a big-toe like Clausen. He just doesn't want to throw. Bucky Brooks says this makes sense. He says coaches and scouts do grade you on whether the receivers catch your passes or not. Ergo, Tebow has much to loose by throwing to receivers he does not know, and who do not know him.

I'm not buying it. I think the key to maintaining and extending Tebow's mystique and appeal is to compete at all times. Always compete. Compete and do your best, and it will always be enough. Always compete, and show that you love to compete. So said Coach Pete Carroll on 710AM radio every day for the past 2 years. Never back down. Retreat is not an option. This in keeping with Touchdown Tim's personality, or at least the personality I am familiar with. You can't hurt yourself by competing and refusing to retreat.

All we need to see is that some improvement in your mechanics has taken place. Even if it is just a little, the critics will see that you are working on it, and you are getting better. That is all it will take. Then you can go into your pro day knowing you have not passed on any opportunities to impress.

I just don't think Tebow should chicken out like Clausen and Bradford. He should do what his buddy Colt McCoy is doing. Always compete.

Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback

Michael Lombardi has quoted Bill Walsh many times saying "Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Even fewer are qualified to coach the position." We have established that Walsh was explicitly crapping on NFL talent scouts like Mel Kiper Jr when he said this.

Jeeeze! Why do you think a nice guy like Bill Walsh would say such a nasty thing like that about a guy like Mel Kiper Jr?

You know hind sight is 20/20. I think Bill was absolutely justified in saying this because over the 28 years of my study period we had:

• 38 first round QBs that absolutely went bust
• 22 first round QBs that made it
• 6 first round QBs that are middle-of-the-road cases, partial busts, partial success stories.
• 10 drafts in which no 1st round QBs were successful
• 32 ProBowl (or better) QBs selected outside the first round
• 4 undrafted QBs who turned into All-Pro guys

When you consider this stunning pile of facts, you have to wonder if somebody blind folded these scouts, spun them round-n-round, and put darts in their hands. The darts went all over the place. Dave's Law says that NFL QB success is randomly distributed with respect to talent scout grades.

This is not to mention the 9 QBs enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who were not first rounders.

The history of successful quarterbacks in the NFL is a true bugbear for the NFL Talent Scout. Nothing proves the tremendous fallibility of Mel Kiper Jr. better than the success rate of QBs in the first round over the course of the past 30 or so seasons.

Now that we have categorically proven that these fine chaps (like Mel Kiper Jr.) do not know what the fuck they are talking about, let us now consider the 2010 NFL Draft.

Kiper tells us that Tim Tebow is not NFL Quarterback material. Kiper tells us that Jimmy Clausen is a pro-system kid who is (perhaps) the most NFL ready QB in the draft. In view of all the facts that I have sited above, are you inclined to believe him?

I for one, do not believe him. I believe he is absolutely and completely wrong about this. I believe he is 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong about this. I mean to tell you he has a 0.00% chance of being even 0.001% right about this juxtaposition. I mean dead wrong and not even remotely close to being right.

I can site a stunning record of error which impeaches Mel Kiper Jr.'s credibility completely.

The Clausen Redux

Marginally informed Ram fans all over St. Louis and Los Angeles are beginning to get vocal in favor of Jimmy Clausen. The NFL recently put a video titled "Top Jimmy...?" on the front page of the league's website. Ignorant fans put 2+2 together and automatically presume the Rams will select Jimmy Clausen #1 overall. I have a simple message to you:

Forget about it.

History teaches us that selecting a QB in the 1st round is 50/50 proposition at best... if he is a senior. If you select an underclassman, the bust percentage increases to 90%. This is for a simple reason: You need more education, development, and maturity at the QB position than any other. Immaturity kills at this position, especially with the ultra-pressure that accompanies being a high-draft QB in the NFL.

Jimmy Clausen is a true Junior. That means he has a 90% chance of going bust, this according to the actuarial tables. This is the first fact to consider before any other considerations. Now just chew on that percentage for awhile and tell me that you want to use the #1 pick in the draft the select Jimmy Clausen.

Many have challenged me when I have declared that Clausen has the highest bust potential of any kid in the Draft. The Irish Alumni, in particular, have come after me with venom. They are doing a nice job of trying to back their candidate. I don't give a fuck what you say. His odds of making it in the NFL suck, period.

Weren't Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford juniors last season? Yep, they were, but Sanchez was not a true Junior. He was already senior in age, and he had already graduated. Stafford was a true Junior.

Didn't they both make it? Don't jump to conclusions. We don't know that. The truth about these young men will not be known for several years. However, suppose that both of them have "made it": are you now prepared to temp the statistical tables with a third gamble on a true junior with only a 10% chance of victory?

There is another factor to consider. When you compare Clausen to Sanchez or Stafford, it is clear that he ain't no Stafford or Sanchez. Both of those guys are a lot more athletic and mobile, they have greater arm strength, and greater intangibles. If these two guys had come out this year, Clausen would be in a distant 4th place in QB rankings, and headed for definite 2nd or 3rd round status. You just don't select a player like that #1 overall. If you do, you are a stupid fool.

There are a number of yellow flags which even Clausen's advocates have raised regarding him. A very favorable critic can be read here raising these yellow flags.

• Throws longer than 40 tend to be late and fluttery
• Doesn't have the best footwork
• Executes a three quarter release that can cause problems
• Not very athletic, does not have the ability to run with the football
• Does not follow through on the little things, play action, fake rollouts, etc.
• Questionable personality: comes off as abrasive

I can honestly tell you that I saw plenty of Notre Dame games over the last three years. Never once did I consider Clausen to be a significant prospect for Sundays in the NFL. He just didn't impress me. As a freshmen, he looked like a kid in deep shit, way over his head. As a sophomore, I don't think he started to "get it" until later in the season. As a junior he put together a few significant games: Like the one they lost to 6-5 USC where Notre Dame scored about 30 points. It should be noted that USC was rebuilding their defense like a moefoe this season.

Then Clausen's coach is fired for running a very tepid program.

Perhaps that resume looks good to you. It does not look good to me. It does not convince me that Clausen will beat-out an actuarial table that gives him only a 10% chance to succeed.

What has happened to our Quarterback Draft in 2010

For the past 3 years, NFL draft fans have been looking forward to this years draft as a probable bonanza for quarterbacks. I heard a lot of comparisons to the draft of 2004 and the mythical draft of 1983. So now here we are in 2010, and all the candidates have arrived minus two: Mark Sanchez came out last year, and Jake Locker decided to stay in school for one more year. But what has become of our bumper-crop quarterback draft?

Right now I see a hell of a lot of volatility in the quarterback rankings. There is no agreement about who the #1 guy is. The most frequently mentioned prospects are Sam Bradford, who is injured, and Jimmy Clausen, who is now universally acclaimed. Then you have a crew of other kids who have been ballyhooed at one time or another as the Second Coming. All of them have serious knocks laid on them by one critic or another.

First I hear Mel Kiper Jr. declare that Tim Tebow is not a QB prospect at all; rather he is a Tightend project. Then I hear guys like Charles Davis and Mike Lombardi declare that Tebow will go in the 1st round, and as a QB. The I hear Chris Myers and Steve Hartman declare that he will be a 2nd day draft pick, and they don't know what he will play.

The only thing that seems clear is that Sam Bradford would be a slam-dunk #1 overall pick if he were not injured. Woulda, shoulda, coulda; he's got a surgically repaired shoulder, and everybody is arguing like Hell about how bad the injury is.

Lost in all this commotion are two guys I really like: Colt McCoy and Jevan Snead.

Many are saying that McCoy is going to be a backup at best. I say he is the next Joe Montana, and I ain't kidding. Once you remove the hyper-inflation that Montana's legend has experienced, what you are left with is a very smart QB who made great decisions {most of the time} and threw highly accurate soft passes at highly mobile recievers who could run. If you ask me which kid in this draft most resembles that perfect type, it is Colt McCoy. He has great vision, he makes really good decisions, and he throws highly accurate soft passes at highly mobile receivers who can truck with it. He is the spitting image of Joe. Don't be surprised if he is a lot more successful than they say he will be.

If Andy Reid were to draft him, the sky is the limit for McCoy.

Jevan is the kid who is really getting lost in the shuffle. People who did not watch the Tennessee game or the LSU game are harping on what a horrible season Snead had. They are also focusing on that brutal Cotton Bowl appearance in which everybody but McCluster got killed. Let's remember that Snead was still on the winning side of that bloodbath, and sometimes that's the best you can do.

Mel Kiper Jr. has freely stated that he believes that Jevan Snead made a big mistake in coming out early. He and just about everybody else believes that Snead would have benefited like crazy from another year in college. The talk is very negative. They say he came out because he was having problems with grades & academic eligibility. Not good for a QB. Others focus on the threat of a rookie salary cap in 2011 as driving Snead's decision.

It remains to be seen where Snead will be drafted. I still stick to my guns. He looks like a somewhat smaller and more athletic Phillip Rivers, with a better ability to run, but sans the football smarts at this point. Rivers is a tremendous thinking man's QB; easily the second best after Peyton Manning. Snead needs to reach for that model. Snead does have an M24 sniper rifle attached to his right shoulder. Believe me, he can throw it.

It is still very early. The Senior Bowl has not yet been played. We are no where near the combine yet. We have not yet argued about the combine results. Things are going to change; be sure of it. Still, if I read the tea leaves correctly at this point, only one quarterback is guaranteed to go in the 1st round. That QB is Sam Bradford. Some say Buffalo, some say Washington. Clausen is very likely to go in the first, but this is not certain. Some say Buffalo, some say Washington, some say Seattle, some say Carolina. Based on what I have read, no other QB is likely to go in the 1st round; Mike Lombardi and Charles Davis notwithstanding.

Can you image that? What if we get to 2010 draft day and just two (2) QBs come off the board in the 1st round? What if names like Tebow, McCoy and Snead are around in the 2nd and 3rd round? Does that sound like a QB bonanza to you? We'll have to see. This could be one of those years with a couple of all-pro Hall of Fame QBs going later rather than sooner.



There are some other QBs in this draft as well. I intend to get to know these kids and tell you about them soon.

The Rams will make a catastrophic mistake if they draft Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame

Now they are really trying to piss me off. For those who do not know about the blecherreport.com, it is one of several places where amateur and semi-pro sports writers sharpen their skills.

Two posts have outraged me in the past 48 hours. You will find them here and here. Both suggest that the Rams will use the #1 pick in the draft to select Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. The first link is a Mock 2010 draft. The second is an attempt to defend Jimmy Clausen as top NFL Quarterback prospect.

There is only one witness for the defense. That is ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. The defense begins as follows:

Breaking news: Mel Kiper Jr. has actually accurately evaluated a player in the NFL Draft. I know he is one of the biggest idiots among sports personalities, but Kiper's evaluation of Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen is completely on target. Clausen is going to be a solid pro quarterback at worst and possesses the intangibles to be a star.

Boy you want to talk about pushing all my buttons? You wanna talk about raising my blood pressure to 190 over 140? Do you want to talk about flipping my lid? You just put together all the bad rankles in one short burst. Now I am pissed.

For the record I will say it loud and proud right here and right now. If the Rams fuck up the next 5 years, it will not be my fault. I will have warned them.

Jimmy Clausen is not an NFL Quarterback. Jimmy Clausen is not an NFL player. Jimmy Clausen will not play on Sunday well or for long. Jimmy Clausen is going to be somebody's draft day bust. He is the next Rick Mirer, and that is all. Jimmy Clausen is going to get an NFL GM (and probably a head coach) fired.

Furthermore, Mel Kiper is one of the worst evaluators of talent out there because he has a very narrow minded focus on tangibles and the fact that he almost always ignores intangibles. Now he wishes to defend Clausen on the basis of intangibles? No bitch, we aren't going to let you reverse your field now. Not here. Not now. Not with this candidate.

I speak for a skeptical nation that has watched Jimmy Clausen do little and nothing for 3 years at Notre Dame. This is the same Notre Dame where Charlie Wies just got fired for running very tepid and mediocre program. Now you are trying to tell me that this same QB is worthy of the absolute #1 pick in the 2010 draft? You are trying to tell me that the Rams would be well advised to draft this kid? Bullshit. Bull fucking shit.

I think the entire NFL would be very wise to pass on Clausen in the first round. I do not believe that anyone is well advised to take him in the 1st round; not even Carolina. I think the entire NFL would also be well advised to pass on Clausen in the second round. If he is the next Joe Montana, then take him in the 3rd round. You can afford a 3rd round bust better than you can afford a 1st or 2nd round bust.

I want to warn coach Spagnuolo, who I believe has a bright future ahead of him, that Clausen will wreck his career. Going wrong with the absolute #1 and going wrong with a QB kills almost any head coach almost every time. Don't do it. Just don't do it. Trade the pick, or take Suh. Play it safe for you and for me.

I thank God the Rams have not selected a QB in the First Round since Bill Musen (Utah State) in 1964. Clausen will be a name just as memorable as Musen in Ram history if we take him.