The 2011 Wonderlics

Intro

As you well know, I have written about the Wonderlic Cognitive Inventory several times. For the benefit of those who do not know, this is a standardized intelligence test that has been around since the 1930s. It is the only IQ test the NFL relies upon for evaluating its prospects. This test is considered most important vis-à-vis quarterbacks.

Some four days ago, leaks began to surface about who scored what in the most recent round of NFL Combine Wonderlics. Let’s just say that there were some big surprises.

The Most Notable Scores

1. Greg McElroy, QB Alabama 43

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri 42

3. Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College 41

4. Danny Watkins, OT/OG Baylor (via Canada) 40

5. Scott Tolzien, QB Wisconsin 38

6. Steve Schilling, OG Michigan 35

7. Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska 35

8. Julius Thomas, TE Portland State 35

9. Christian Ponder, QB Florida State 35

10. Ricky Stanzi, QB Iowa 30

11. Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas 26

12. Cam Newton, QB Auburn 21

13. Jake Locker, QB Washington 20

14. Julio Jones, WR Alabama 15

15. B.J. Green, WR Georgia 9 or 10 {disputed}

16. Patrick Peterson 9

The Cossacks are Chuckling

Boy, this is some interesting material! If you have been following path to the draft, let’s just call this disruptive and disturbing. How so? Let me count the ways…

Greg McElroy is not really on anybody’s prospect list but he just busted the high score on the Wonderlic. This puts him in squarely in the Ryan Fitzpatrick zone. He might make it, despite being a low draft pick or a non-pick.

Blaine Gabbert may have just solidified his claim on the #1 pick in the draft. Prior to the leak of the test scores, many important voices (Mike Mayock) were already touting Gabbert as the #1 QB and possibly the #1 pick. That big score is usually interpreted by GMs as meaning “Super Bowl Material”. If the Panthers pass, the Bengals won’t. Gabbert goes no lower than #4 unless he gets into a car accident (God forbid). I want to warn you that Alex Smith once had a giant Wonderlic score like this. It didn’t stop him from going bust. I think Gabbert is considerably better than Smith, but I am still skeptical.

Despite being a heavy legged waist bender, Castonzo is ranked by many as the top lineman in the draft. Not by me. I say Pouncey is #1. Still, Castonzo has impressed everybody with his character and intelligence. His Wonderlic ain’t going to hurt him any. Herm Edwards says that offensive linemen are usually the smartest guys on the team. I am sure there are teams that aim for this goal, and plan to keep it that way. Castonzo is going to continue to be a factor.

Danny Watkins is an interesting case. He is a 27 year old Canadian kid who stands 6-4 and weighs in at 310. He is an intriguing candidate, but there are disputes about him. Most believe he is well past his growing spurt, so he is as big and strong as he is going to get. If you like him as-is, take him. If you want him to get stronger… well… maybe not. His IQ is going to help him out.

Scott Tolzien is in a similar boat as McElroy. Many do not regard him as a prospect, but he just helped himself.

Steve Schilling has been flying under the radar. I have not yet heard his name mentioned on ESPN or the NFL Network. He just got noticed.

Now we come to one of the great disruptions of the test: Prince Amukamara 35, Patrick Peterson 9. That’s a blowout victory. It resembles the score of Super Bowl 18. For those who don’t know Patrick Peterson is ranked by some as the top prospect in the draft, and certainly the top CB. Amukamara is the runner-up in the #2 corner, and a top 20 pick. The disparity in scores here is bound to faction the league. Defensive coaches who believe in instinct will certainly continue to extol Peterson. They will blow off the Wonderlic scores. DCs who love smart players are going to move Amukamara way up their boards. There are sizable factions on both sides of the instinct/intelligence question in the NFL.

Julius Thomas is a very small college tight end who was on nobody’s radar screen. He just got noticed. I would bet that somebody wants to interview him now. If the Big Tuna were still in the league, he would be interviewing this kid.

Christian Ponder has been slowly but surely creeping up everybody’s draft board. With a score 1 point lower than Sam Bradford’s last year, he just helped himself tremendously. He’s got one of those Super Bowl capable scores, and I guarantee that several important people now view him as a franchise QB. Although it looks doubtful, he may yet go in the 1^st round, and ahead of Ryan Mallet. The kid has no significant negatives on his record.

Ricky Stanzi is another guy who just got noticed.

Now we come to another one of those interesting score in the test! Ryan Mallet is one of the hottest buzz guys in the 2011 draft… for good reasons and for bad. A famous St. Louis sports writer declared Ryan Mallet left Michigan because he was seriously addicted to several illegal substances at the time. Reportedly, he still has a drug habit, although it might just be marijuana. At the moment these claims have not been substantiated. Mallet has not tested positive to anything yet. He claims he is drug free. There are many who are in love with his arm, his accuracy, and the fact that he played under center. He reminds me of something between Drew Bledsoe and Jim Everett, but with sketchy aspects to him. 25 is the average score of an NFL QB. Mallet is 1 point higher than that, but his score is considerably lower than his competitors. 28 is considered the minimum score for a Super Bowl capable QB. Mallet is 2 points shy of this mark. Ryan’s score of 26 is going to microwave this debate.

Cam Newton scored 21 on his Wonderlic. While this is not a terrible score (like Vince Young’s 9) it is 3 points lower than Tim Tebow, and 2 points lower than Jimmy Clausen last year. When Tebow and Clausen scored their 24 and 23 point last year, howls went up from many league sources. It was not well received. This is because 25 is average, and 28 is the start of the sweetness zone. Those who love Cam are going to label the Wonderlic culturally biased, and they will take heart in the fact that his score is 233% of Vince Young’s. I will bet you dollars to donuts that there are experts in the league who now rate Christian Ponder higher than Cam Newton.

And now we come to a tragic case. It would seem my favorite QB prospect, Jake Locker, scored a 20 on this test. This just might be the death of his 1^st round hopes. If you are one of the many out there wondering how Jake just fell out of the 1^st round last week, look no further than this score. It’s 5 points below average, 4 points below Tebow, 3 below Clausen, and 1 behind Newton. It looks like a bottom of the barrel score. I don’t understand this. He does not strike me as a 20 guy. He must have had a bad day, or got off to a poor start. This kid is a Gemini, and he should be a smart guy. I continue to believe he will be a hell of a QB for the Seattle Seahawks. The hometown folks love him and believe in him, and sometimes that’s all it takes.

And now we come to the other big disruption brought to you by Mr. Wonderlic. B.J. Green capped his bad combine by making a 9 on his Wonderlic test. I still remember the NFL SoundFX clip where Warren Sapp was poking fun at Akili Smith for scoring a 9 on his Wonderlic. The QB killer regards this as a bad score. Mr. Green's response to this charge was that he actually scored a 10. Okay… Ad meanwhile, his SEC rival Julio Jones tacked down a 15. This is not a terrific score either, but it underscores the fact that Julio mastered B.J.’s ass at the 2011 NFL Combine.

It should be understood that the Wonderlic is not so heavily emphasized in the case of Wide Receivers. This is strange, because the WR is the other half of the passing combo, and it is considered the second most difficult NFL position to master for kids coming out of college. It stands to reason that good intelligence can help shorten that learning curve. I, myself, keep wondering how many signs NFL GMs and draft experts will ignore before the move Julio ahead of B.J. on the draft charts. Several may have already quietly done so, and not told.

I eagerly look forward to seeing which one of these of these two young men goes first in the draft. I continue to believe B.J. would have the better chemistry with Sam Bradford, but you have to love everything we are seeing these days about Julio Jones. Heads we win, tails we win.

The Wonderlic test, revisited

As you know, the Wonderlic Cognitive Ability Test is a standardized intelligence test developed by an industrial psychologist named Eldon F. Wonderlic. It has been in use since the 1930s. An assortment of industries have used this test to gauge the potential of employees for positions and advancement. It is most famous today as the sole gauge of intelligence potential for NFL prospects invited to the annual combine.

You get 12 minutes to answer 50 questions. For each question you answer correctly, you score a single point. For each question you miss or fail to answer, you get zero points. The maximum score possible is 50, if you get them all right. The minimum score is zero (0), if you bolo every question. The objective is to place time pressure on a candidate and see how fast the individual in question can process data and a question and arrive at the correct conclusion. The faster you can process the data, understand the question, and arrive at the correct solution, the better your score should be. The higher your score, the more intelligent we presume you are.

Does this test matter to a football player? Many say the answer is yes. Many say that the significance of this test varies by position. Most focus on the quarterback position, declaring that the QB is the nerve center of the offense. This is the man who must process information lightning quick, understand the problem being posed to him by the defense, and make the right decision about where to put the football. Most agree that this is the one position where the Wonderlic score matters most.

A whole bunch of research has been done on the ultimate career outcomes of NFL Quarterbacks, given their Wonderlic scores. A lot of very interesting results have sprung out of that research. Let me give you a few examples:

1. The average score for a starting Quarterback in in the NFL 25.
2. It is difficult to reach the Super Bowl with a QB who scored less than 28.
3. Given two teams in the Super Bowl, the team whose quarterback has the highest Wonderlic almost always wins. This happens even in extremely unlikely circumstances such as Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning scored a 39, and Tom Brady scored a 33, respectively.

All of this brings me to the point I wanted to make in this blog. Aaron Rodgers scored 35 on his Wonderlic test. Ben Roethlisberger scored 25 on his Wonderlic test. Of course, the Packers won and the Steelers lost. It should be noted that Rodgers did outperform his counterpart by a considerable margin. Do you think he's smarter than Ben Roethlisberger? Do you think he outperformed Ben Roethlisberger because he is the smarter guy?

I think the answer is pretty cut and dried, Yes.

Many would also look at the issue of accuracy. As so many have observed, a passer's accuracy is of primary importance. If he can't put the football where he wants it to go, all the size, strength, speed, toughness and smartness in the world won't matter. A quarterback must be accurate.

It should be noted that Aaron Rodgers is a far more accurate passer than Ben Roethlisberger. Rodgers just might be the most accurate passer in the league right now. He can put a bullet through a momentary fracture in space-time before you have noticed it exists.

All of this brings me the second big point I want to make in this in this blog entry. You know, my Rams just happen to have a young quarterback who scored a 36 on his Wonderlic test last year. he also happens to be an extremely accurate passer. Most authorities say Sam is one of the most accurate passer in NCAA history. In a year or so, he just might be challenging Aaron Rodgers for the accuracy crown.

As many have correctly observed, the Packers are loaded. This may only be the first of a series of championships for them. They are set up for 3 or 4 great seasons in a row. They may well become the dynasty of this new decade.

I want to give a word of encouragement to my fellow Ram-fans. If we do what we have to do in this draft, and if we don't fuck it up, we just might be contending with these Packers sooner rather than later. In a few years, the NFC may come down to the Packers vs. Rams, and that could happen several times in a row.

What do we have to do to get there? Well, I'll tell you about that.

• We need an absolutely deadly receiver like A.J. Green
• We need an ultra-behemoth Guard, like Carl Nicks of the Saints
• We need an elephant linebacker of the tweener variety. We need a guy who is too runty to be a defensive end, and too big to be a linebacker. There have been scores of these dudes in NFL history, and they are always the most destructive defenders on the field, despite the fact that you can have them for bargain prices. Our last great elephant linebacker was Kevin Greene, now seen coaching Clay Matthews. Kevin was our 5th round selection in 1985. He was also my favorite player in the world for a long time. We need another guy like him.

So did you hear about the Wonderlic 2010?

As the Rams are a team interesting in QB, probably in the 2nd round, many astute fans were interested to read about the results of the Wonderlic test inflicted (yes inflicted) upon the QBs at the NFL Scouting Combine. Every player had to take the test. Only the QB scores seem to attract any real interest.

What the hell is the Wonderlic? It's a standardized intelligence test intended to measure problem solving potential. It is not an achievement test, like a spelling B, or a math challenge. You get 12 minutes to take the test. You have 50 problems to solve. If solve only 1 correctly, you score only one point. If you solve all 50 correctly, you score 50 points.

The average score for all QBs tested is just 24. The average for a STARTING QB in the NFL is 28.5. The average score for all Centers is 25. The average score for an OT is 26. How about 'dem apples? Computer programmers, such as myself, have an average score of 29. I would be willing to bet that I would score just a little higher than that. I am no mean programmer. The Chemistry professionals tally an average of 31.

Some quarterbacks have posted notoriously low scores. Michael Vick scored a 10. Akili Smith scored a 9. Vince Young scored a 6 on his first pass. They allowed him a mulligan, and he scored 15 the second time around. Some quarterbacks have shot the lights out. Matt Leinart scored 35. Tony Romo scored 37. Eli Manning score 39. Alex Smith scored 40. Former Ram QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (of Harvard) is rumored to have scored a 50. He denied that. Other reports place him at 48. He only said he knew he left one answer blank.

Does this predict performance on the field? I doubt it. Vince Young is a better NFL QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week. There is your maximum high-low differential, and performance points in the other direction. Vick is also more dangerous than Fitzpatrick.

Ultra-heavyweight Canton QB Dan Marino notoriously scored a 16 on his Wonderlic. This may have been one of the reasons he slipped down the board on draft day. He is one of the greatest pure passers the world has ever known. In terms of purity of passing, it is Marino, Van Brocklin and Manning,

So how did our 2010 crop of lads score today?

1. Tebow = 22
2. Clausen = 23
3. McCoy = 25
4. Bradford = 36

They eye-popping score is Bradford's 36. He stands out amongst his peers. Rumor has it that Bradford also shot the lights out of the scoreboard in the personal interviews he did. Everybody was very impressed with him. If he is able to routinely score 36, he has the smarts to impress NFL decision makers.

Let us review the following three facts with some interest:

• The average of all QBs tested is 24
• The average of all starting NFL QBs is 28.5
• The average of the last 7 winning QBs in the Super Bowl is 30. (Eli biased that score up with his massive 39. Brady also pushed it up with his 33.)

As you can see, there is only one kid in this 2010 crop with a Wonderlic score that lines up with your team's best aspirations.

But does this really prove anything? A lot of busted picks scored high on the Wonderlic. Some very good QBs scored low. There is a more general controversy associated with standardized intelligence testing. There is a theory of background bias which suggests that you cannot write a culture neutral test. Whilst I have never taken a Wonderlic test myself, I must say the following. Standardized testing does measure the mind. It may not measure the dimensions you are concerned with, but it does measure intelligence, achievement, and cultural competence. All of these things are important.

If I have complaint, it is only this: I would like to see the SAT, ACT, and GREs on these kids as well. I would pay closest attention to the GRE (Graduate Review Examination) to determine if these kids got something out of their time in college, and if they have the potential for graduate work.

On the subject of Tim Tebow: Is Tebow's score bad? No. He was just 2 points off the average. His score is the same as Brett Favre's and it is higher than Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw (15) and Dan Marino (16). Reports that he flunked the test are bullshit. He was within 1 point of golden hype Jimmy Clausen.

So what have I gotten out of this? A real head-ache problem. As a computer programmer with a fairly high aptitude shown on most tests, I am biased towards individuals who can score high on these kinds of tests. I am horrified by the stupidity of ordinary people, several times a day on an average day.

On the other hand, as training Anthropologist with a lot of courses in human evolutionary biology under my belt, I can tell you that intelligence is adaptive, but only up to a point. It is a well known fact that exceptionally intelligent people fail to reproduce at an alarming rate. Ergo, in the strictest Darwinian sense of the term, high intelligence can be maladaptive. There are athletes who think to much on the field. These guys get into momentary conundrums they cannot solve rapidly because they are thinking about to many scenarios.

Regarding QBs, Kurt Warner was recently asked if he thought Matt Leinart would be a successful QB in Arizona. Kurt expressed doubt. He said that he knew Matt was book smart. He knew Matt had athletic ability. However, Matt has trouble turning his book knowledge into instant action and reaction on the field. Could that be because Matt's size 35 brain is cogitating too many scenarios when he needs to be rapidly decisive as Kurt Warner was? I think the answer is yes.

Marshall loves to say that thought is the enemy of speed. The more you think the more you stink.

Nevertheless, even with Marshall's words ringing in my ears, I have to be brutally honest: Bradford just piqued my interest for the first time in this NFL Draft season. I need to contain my biases, but Sam is looking a whole lot better to me all of a sudden.

We need to remember that we do not have the offensive line to protect this kid or make him a success. He will have to sit for a year minimum whilst we try to develop and build a better offensive line. I don't know if anyone will be able to bear 0.00 productivity out of our top pick in the year 2010. Rushing him in will be a recipe for disaster though.

Honestly, Suh in the 1st, Tebow in the 2nd, and Vick by trade still seems like a much more coherent strategy for success.