Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Combine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Combine. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Why everybody loves A.J. Green

So, a budy of mine at work--who is a dedicated Ram-fan--asked me why I am so sweet on Green when Julio is the guy all the Ram-fans are talking about. I answered him pretty directly.

A.J. Green is a 6'4", 211 pound version of Lynn Swann who is faster and more bio-mechanically efficient going into and coming out of his breaks. He has a 31 pound weight advantage on Swann, a 5 inch height advantage on Swann, and 1 or 2 tenths speed advantage on Swann. I think he leaps higher in combat, and uses his hands better. He's a lion-hearted kid also.

I know this is saying a hell of a lot, but I think my man can back it up all the way. I'm not the only one. Charley Casserly has already said he would select A.J. #1 overall. I just heard Moose Johnston say the same tonight on NFL Total Access. The Moose believes A.J. is the safest pick in the entire draft. Von Miller may be a little safer, but I am pretty much online with the Moose.

As we all know coach Steve Mariucci has a new show called Game Changers, but as far as I am concerned, A.J. is the most clear-cut game changer around. This is the guy I believe will turn the tide of battle when everything is going against you.

A shout out to Billy Devaney: Think about our Rams trailing by 9 points at the start of the 4th quarter against the Ravens. The Raven defense is putting on crushing pressure. Sam has to unload an errant pass. A.J. goes up in the air and out-fights Ed Reed for the football. Reed is not only robbed of an interception, he falls down in the process. A.J. outruns everyone to the endzone. Now the Rams trail by just 2 points with 14 and change left to play.

I could see a lot of scenarios like this in the near future, and what a bright future it would be. Think of the possibilities.



Monday, April 25, 2011

It's draft week folks.

We are at T-Minus 78 hours and counting to the launch of the draft folks. Thursday evening at 4:00 pm PST, the gavel will fall and the Panthers shot-clock will start. Let's hope they don't fuck it up by selecting Cam. I pitty you, Eric. You have my profound condolences.

A few key precepts

  1. This is a razor-thin draft. There is no depth to this draft. Once we are thought round 3, stick a fork in it, cuz we are done.
  2. The 2011 draft cannot compare in any way with the 2010 draft. 2010 was vastly superior to 2011. Understand that this is the weakest senior class Charlie Casserly has seen in 27 years in this business.
  3. There will be a large and disproportionally high ratio of over-drafted disappointments and busts in this draft.
  4. This is a defensive draft, not an offensive draft.
  5. What depth there is in this skinny draft exists at the defensive end position.
  6. The linebacker position is the thinest position in this draft class. Von Miller is the only impact player at the LB position. Akeem Ayers is the only good 2nd rounder. Chris Matthews is the only guy I want to select in round 3. This is a terrible year to be in need of a linebacker.
  7. This is a bad year for the QB position. I just heard Rich Eisen suggesting that this is a 'seemingly' quarterback rich draft. This is marketing hype. It's quarterback rich like the year 2000. There may be another Brady 6 in this draft. There are more suspects than prospects at the QB position.
  8. This is a wretched year for offensive linemen. Heavy-legged waist-benders with limited upper body strength, and skinny bastards too! Mike Pouncey is the only guy I would bank on as a blue-chip, can't miss prospect.
  9. This is a very good year for Wide Receivers. We have two really sweet choices up top and a few others that might pan out in round 2. This is a good year to be in need of a WR.

Devaney unlikely to move up?

I want to preface this section by reminding us all that this is disinformation week. As Mike Lombardi says, it is liar's poker season. There will be more negative influence, trap plays, pump fakes, subterfuge and deception this week than any other week of 2011. Everyone is smoke-screening like a moe-foe, covering up their real intentions.

I have read several nasty reports that Billy Devaney intends to stay put at #14. In an interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Devaney said that he felt the Rams were smack in the sweet-spot of the draft. Chances are that the Rams will stay put.

Of course, Billy would not be inclined to tell you he has potential deals in the works with the Cardinals and Cowboys even if it were so, now would he? This would only make WR desperate teams more inclined to try to jump us and take their man, right? This can only increase the cost of any potential deal, correct?

I can only say the following: If we aren't smart enough to mortgage the farm to get A.J. Smith, I hope we will take either J.J. Watt or Mike Pouncey. I see these two young men as can't miss blue-chips in any system, and at various positions. Although I would love to have Watt, I supppose Pouncey fills the greater need. I would be glad to see him join the team.

Anybody remember Leonard Hankerson?

Leonard Hankerson is the latest edition of Big-Bird. He was the big-time wide receiver at The U of Miami over the past several years. His draft stock is very uncertain. Many still accord him 2nd round draft status, although many are now reporting that he is slipping into the 3rd round. Mike Mayock's review of Hankerson has inspired much fear. Mayock has emphasized the dropped passes and questionable work ethic he has seen in Hankerson, almost identifying him as a one-year wonder.

Of course, you know I greatly appreciate Mike Mayock. He is one of the few authorities I trust on the draft. However, in this case, I inclined to disagree. I know Hankerson had drop-problems early in his career. I know he has been working hard with Mark Super Duper on this problem. During his senior year I saw real progress and few if any drops. Now, I haven't seen all his game film, so there may be more drops I haven't seen.

If worse comes to worse, and we don't nail one of the top two prospects at the WR position, I would hope we would be smart enough to nail Leonard Hankerson. His combine numbers are terrific. He was sensational at the senior bowl. He is a Taurus kid and will have good synastry with a Scorpio guy like Sam Bradford. Trust me on this one. They will matchup nicely.

If we can have him in the 3rd round, we better do it. CBS Sports currently ranks Hankserson as the 80th best prospect in the draft. It should be noted that the Rams have the 78th pick. Let's get him.

It is better...

  1. It is better to have one or two blue-chippers than 7 nothings and nobodies.
  2. Knowing that there is little DT depth in this draft, I would hope we would select versatile dude like J.J. Watt, or pass on all of them.
  3. Knowing that there are no linebackers in this draft for the Rams, it is better to get a few (like Chase Blackburn) in free agency than to draft projects.
  4. Knowing that there are few offensive linemen in this draft, I hope we will have the wisdom to reach for Pouncey or pass on them entirely.
  5. Knowing that there are a couple of blue-chip receivers in this draft, it is better to go after them with our draft picks than to get a temporary WR fix in free agency.
  6. It is better to fix our defense in free agency than to reach for some questionable prospects through the middle rounds of this razor-thin draft.
  7. Strangely enough, I think it is better to go contrariwise in this draft and select offense over defense.

What we need to remember

  1. There ain't no use in having a good quarterback if you don't have a receiver to catch his passes down field.
  2. Having a quarterback with no receiver is like having a cigarette with no lighter.
  3. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having cornflakes with no milk.
  4. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having peanut butter with no jelly.
  5. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having Mac with no cheese.
  6. We have $50 million invested in a pretty good quarterback
  7. We have an absolute #1 pick in phattest draft in recent memory long-sunk in a pretty damn good quarterback.
  8. It is a categorical moral imperative to weaponize Sam in this 2011 draft.
  9. Getting a big-time receiver in this 2011 draft is the sine qua non, that without which nothing else is possible.

Monday, March 21, 2011

The 2011 Wonderlics

Intro

As you well know, I have written about the Wonderlic Cognitive Inventory several times. For the benefit of those who do not know, this is a standardized intelligence test that has been around since the 1930s. It is the only IQ test the NFL relies upon for evaluating its prospects. This test is considered most important vis-à-vis quarterbacks.

Some four days ago, leaks began to surface about who scored what in the most recent round of NFL Combine Wonderlics. Let’s just say that there were some big surprises.

The Most Notable Scores

1. Greg McElroy, QB Alabama 43

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri 42

3. Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College 41

4. Danny Watkins, OT/OG Baylor (via Canada) 40

5. Scott Tolzien, QB Wisconsin 38

6. Steve Schilling, OG Michigan 35

7. Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska 35

8. Julius Thomas, TE Portland State 35

9. Christian Ponder, QB Florida State 35

10. Ricky Stanzi, QB Iowa 30

11. Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas 26

12. Cam Newton, QB Auburn 21

13. Jake Locker, QB Washington 20

14. Julio Jones, WR Alabama 15

15. B.J. Green, WR Georgia 9 or 10 {disputed}

16. Patrick Peterson 9

The Cossacks are Chuckling

Boy, this is some interesting material! If you have been following path to the draft, let’s just call this disruptive and disturbing. How so? Let me count the ways…

Greg McElroy is not really on anybody’s prospect list but he just busted the high score on the Wonderlic. This puts him in squarely in the Ryan Fitzpatrick zone. He might make it, despite being a low draft pick or a non-pick.

Blaine Gabbert may have just solidified his claim on the #1 pick in the draft. Prior to the leak of the test scores, many important voices (Mike Mayock) were already touting Gabbert as the #1 QB and possibly the #1 pick. That big score is usually interpreted by GMs as meaning “Super Bowl Material”. If the Panthers pass, the Bengals won’t. Gabbert goes no lower than #4 unless he gets into a car accident (God forbid). I want to warn you that Alex Smith once had a giant Wonderlic score like this. It didn’t stop him from going bust. I think Gabbert is considerably better than Smith, but I am still skeptical.

Despite being a heavy legged waist bender, Castonzo is ranked by many as the top lineman in the draft. Not by me. I say Pouncey is #1. Still, Castonzo has impressed everybody with his character and intelligence. His Wonderlic ain’t going to hurt him any. Herm Edwards says that offensive linemen are usually the smartest guys on the team. I am sure there are teams that aim for this goal, and plan to keep it that way. Castonzo is going to continue to be a factor.

Danny Watkins is an interesting case. He is a 27 year old Canadian kid who stands 6-4 and weighs in at 310. He is an intriguing candidate, but there are disputes about him. Most believe he is well past his growing spurt, so he is as big and strong as he is going to get. If you like him as-is, take him. If you want him to get stronger… well… maybe not. His IQ is going to help him out.

Scott Tolzien is in a similar boat as McElroy. Many do not regard him as a prospect, but he just helped himself.

Steve Schilling has been flying under the radar. I have not yet heard his name mentioned on ESPN or the NFL Network. He just got noticed.

Now we come to one of the great disruptions of the test: Prince Amukamara 35, Patrick Peterson 9. That’s a blowout victory. It resembles the score of Super Bowl 18. For those who don’t know Patrick Peterson is ranked by some as the top prospect in the draft, and certainly the top CB. Amukamara is the runner-up in the #2 corner, and a top 20 pick. The disparity in scores here is bound to faction the league. Defensive coaches who believe in instinct will certainly continue to extol Peterson. They will blow off the Wonderlic scores. DCs who love smart players are going to move Amukamara way up their boards. There are sizable factions on both sides of the instinct/intelligence question in the NFL.

Julius Thomas is a very small college tight end who was on nobody’s radar screen. He just got noticed. I would bet that somebody wants to interview him now. If the Big Tuna were still in the league, he would be interviewing this kid.

Christian Ponder has been slowly but surely creeping up everybody’s draft board. With a score 1 point lower than Sam Bradford’s last year, he just helped himself tremendously. He’s got one of those Super Bowl capable scores, and I guarantee that several important people now view him as a franchise QB. Although it looks doubtful, he may yet go in the 1st round, and ahead of Ryan Mallet. The kid has no significant negatives on his record.

Ricky Stanzi is another guy who just got noticed.

Now we come to another one of those interesting score in the test! Ryan Mallet is one of the hottest buzz guys in the 2011 draft… for good reasons and for bad. A famous St. Louis sports writer declared Ryan Mallet left Michigan because he was seriously addicted to several illegal substances at the time. Reportedly, he still has a drug habit, although it might just be marijuana. At the moment these claims have not been substantiated. Mallet has not tested positive to anything yet. He claims he is drug free. There are many who are in love with his arm, his accuracy, and the fact that he played under center. He reminds me of something between Drew Bledsoe and Jim Everett, but with sketchy aspects to him. 25 is the average score of an NFL QB. Mallet is 1 point higher than that, but his score is considerably lower than his competitors. 28 is considered the minimum score for a Super Bowl capable QB. Mallet is 2 points shy of this mark. Ryan’s score of 26 is going to microwave this debate.

Cam Newton scored 21 on his Wonderlic. While this is not a terrible score (like Vince Young’s 9) it is 3 points lower than Tim Tebow, and 2 points lower than Jimmy Clausen last year. When Tebow and Clausen scored their 24 and 23 point last year, howls went up from many league sources. It was not well received. This is because 25 is average, and 28 is the start of the sweetness zone. Those who love Cam are going to label the Wonderlic culturally biased, and they will take heart in the fact that his score is 233% of Vince Young’s. I will bet you dollars to donuts that there are experts in the league who now rate Christian Ponder higher than Cam Newton.

And now we come to a tragic case. It would seem my favorite QB prospect, Jake Locker, scored a 20 on this test. This just might be the death of his 1st round hopes. If you are one of the many out there wondering how Jake just fell out of the 1st round last week, look no further than this score. It’s 5 points below average, 4 points below Tebow, 3 below Clausen, and 1 behind Newton. It looks like a bottom of the barrel score. I don’t understand this. He does not strike me as a 20 guy. He must have had a bad day, or got off to a poor start. This kid is a Gemini, and he should be a smart guy. I continue to believe he will be a hell of a QB for the Seattle Seahawks. The hometown folks love him and believe in him, and sometimes that’s all it takes.

And now we come to the other big disruption brought to you by Mr. Wonderlic. B.J. Green capped his bad combine by making a 9 on his Wonderlic test. I still remember the NFL SoundFX clip where Warren Sapp was poking fun at Akili Smith for scoring a 9 on his Wonderlic. The QB killer regards this as a bad score. Mr. Green's response to this charge was that he actually scored a 10. Okay… Ad meanwhile, his SEC rival Julio Jones tacked down a 15. This is not a terrific score either, but it underscores the fact that Julio mastered B.J.’s ass at the 2011 NFL Combine.

It should be understood that the Wonderlic is not so heavily emphasized in the case of Wide Receivers. This is strange, because the WR is the other half of the passing combo, and it is considered the second most difficult NFL position to master for kids coming out of college. It stands to reason that good intelligence can help shorten that learning curve. I, myself, keep wondering how many signs NFL GMs and draft experts will ignore before the move Julio ahead of B.J. on the draft charts. Several may have already quietly done so, and not told.

I eagerly look forward to seeing which one of these of these two young men goes first in the draft. I continue to believe B.J. would have the better chemistry with Sam Bradford, but you have to love everything we are seeing these days about Julio Jones. Heads we win, tails we win.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Well... we can get him now


The NFL Network's very own Charlie Casserly broke news yesterday of vital interest to Ram-fans every where. He informed us that Julio Jones executed his amazing combine workout on a broken foot. The break is now the worse for wear.

Mark J. Miller of Yahoo Sports, confirmed that Julio needs surgery, and will have a screw inserted in his foot. This procedure carries an 8-week rehab time. The operation will pretty well nix any potential pro-day or private workouts for any team in the run up to the draft.

Remember, it's already March 1, and the NFL Draft is April 28. That's just about 8 weeks give or take a couple of days.

It will also place the medical flag on his file.

Personally, I don't give a damn about the medical flag. I am all the more impressed that Julio ran 4.39 and jumped 11'3". My jaw dropped to the floor when I heard and read these reports. I am pretty well settled that this is our guy. I still have some lingering questions about chemistry, though.

I know this is going to sound kinda funny, and I regret saying this, but this is great news for Ram fans. Julio can take solace in the probability that this may be the best thing that ever happened to him. If things work out as we suspect, he gets to go to a team with a hot young quarterback that's desperate for a #1 receiver. We also happen to have an OC who is regarded as hot property. The conditions are set for his success.

How does 100 receptions and 18 touchdowns in your rookie year sound to you, Julio?

Sunday, February 27, 2011

It is time to discuss Wide Receivers

Intro

Most sources say the Rams will select a wide receiver in the 2011 Draft. Most say that receiver will be Julio Jones, junior from Alabama.

Devaney willing, this shall be the case. Quite frankly, I consider the case for a WR a no-brainer. Devaney just invested the whole franchise in his golden child, Sam Bradford. So far Bradford has validated this decision. Devaney must now make decisions that support and validate that critical choice. He’s locked in.



Green Interview

Furthermore, you have the fact that Sam is currently operating with (what most experts rate as) the worst receiver corp in the entire league. Some qualify that statement with the tag “due to injuries in 2010”. There is no need for that qualification. It is misleading. Sam has the worst receiver corp in the entire league, put a period on it. It isn’t just due to injury. Only Danny Amendola has proven himself a true asset. We’ve seen enough of Denario Alexander to be interested in bringing him back.

Every other WR on the roster better row for his life. Your professional careers are on the line.

As you know, I’ve been bitching about our receiver corp since before the 2010 draft. The top two reasons I believed we could not draft a QB in 2010 were:

  1. 1. Our offensive line
  2. 2. Our receiver corp

As it happened, our line was far better than I thought they would be. Not quite as good as I hoped, but far better than expected. If that sounds like a contradiction, just understand there is a wide gap between the best case and the worst case scenarios. The Ram OL was somewhere in-between, but leaning towards the happy side of the spectrum.

Unfortunately, our receivers were even worse than expected. It is astounding that Sam finished well as he did throwing to this crew. His good performance, in spite of the receiver corp, is probably the biggest single reason we all have confidence in him now. Just imagine what this kid will be like if we get him a deadly receiver. We all know and understand that our receiver corp is currently placing confining limits on Sam’s growth. This bottle-neck has to be broken if our team is to improve.

As I said, it’s a no-brainer.

Right now, we’re all on the same sheet of music, and feels pretty good. Last year, there was absolutely no consensus about what we aught to do with the top pick. There was a hell of a lot of bickering in that setting. I am glad we’re all together on this one.

The Situation

As you know, the Rams will be selecting #14 overall in the 2011 draft. This is not a bad position to begin our quest for a deadly receiver. Indeed, most sources say that Julio Jones will be there for us. Only one man is rated higher than Julio Jones, and that fellow is A.J. Green, one of the super-luminaries of this draft. Based on what we saw at the combine, the rankings may change.

If we get Julio Jones, we aught to be plenty happy. To some extend I am. However, it’s tough to get excited when you are drafting #14. A lot of things can happen in those first 13 picks. It is very difficult to guess what might be on the board when our actual number comes up. Nevertheless, we are all going to play the guessing game for the next 60 days, trying to get ready.

Thinking about the two candidates

I have had my eyes on Julio for some three years now. Understand that when I watch college football, I am doing so as a scout. I try to figure out who the prospects are, and who might make my team better. I have been wondering whether Julio might become a Ram, and possibly even the next great Ram receiver. Frankly, throughout his entire college career at Alabama, I was hopeful that we would draft Julio.

It’s a very funny thing… even as the fantasy seems set to become a reality, I am having some second thoughts. A.J. has definitely caught my eye. I am also concerned about who might have the best teamwork and chemistry with Sam. For some reason I can’t shake, I seem to think that fellow is A.J.

Perhaps we should begin with a serious comparison of these two young men.

Julio Jones

Let’s go in reverse order, and start with Julio Jones, the candidate most likely to be our pick in 2011. According to his Wikipedia page, Julio is a 2/3/1989 Aquarius, who just turned 22 years of age. He stands 6-4 and weighs in at 220 pounds. More accurate numbers may be released from the NFL combine soon.

He was an immediate and three-year starter and standout at Alabama. The Tide won a national championship during his watch. He decided to leave school a year early to enter this 2011 draft. Julio was one of the top performers at the combine, out-performing his draft-rival from Georgia, A.J. Green. Julio ran the 40 in 4.43 and 4.39 seconds. He nailed a 11'03" broad jump, and also posted a 38.5 inch vertical leap. In short, you see all the size, speed and vertical leaping ability you want in a receiver.

Alabama was a running team during Julio’s time in college. He did not see the football nearly as much as he would have at a place like Oklahoma or Florida. In my mind, he made the most out of his limited number of touches by physically dominating the corner opposite him. He is an extremely physical receiver who blasts through press coverage, shakes off and runs over defenders.

Physically he reminds me of two NFL receivers. His body type is very much like that of Terrell Owens. The way he runs after the catch is very much like Anquan Bolden. If you can imagine Terrell Owens running after the catch with an attitude like Anquan Bolden, you can visualize what Julio Jones looks like in action. Incidentally, Julio has not had any ‘personality’ incidents during this time at Alabama. He has shown no signs of being a WR-Diva.

The big knock on Julio is that he doesn’t use his hands to catch the ball as consistently as he should. They call him a body-catcher, and they blame this ‘bad-technique’ for a series of key drops he made as a junior. I have to say that I did not see those drops. I would like to have a look at that game film. Personally, I have always felt that the knock on body-catchers is over-rated. Lynn Swann never caught a pass with his hands in his entire life. Swann is an HOF guy. Issac Bruce, our all-time leading receiver, caught alternately with his hands or body, which ever seemed favorable in the situation.

Critics also say Julio is a build-up speed guy. What does that mean? Translation: he doesn’t have fantastic acceleration off the line. This critique may be debunked and inoperative after these combine results.

What do I think? I never saw a single down in Julio’s career where the corners didn’t try to jam the hell out of him on the line of scrimmage. They rode him like a bronco every step of the way through that initial 5 yards. Given this sort of relentless press coverage, I am not sure how you can judge a man’s snap acceleration correctly.

A.J. Green

According to his Wikipedia page, A.J. Green is a 7/31/1988 Leo who is also 22 years old, albeit 5 months older than Julio Jones. He stand 6-3 5/8th, just a hair shorter than Julio Jones. He weighs in at 211 pounds, 9 pounds lighter than Julio Jones. Once again, more accurate numbers may be released from the combine.

Like Julio, A.J. was an immediate and three year starter for the Georgia Bulldogs. He has a few less games under his belt due to a 4 game NCAA suspension in 2010. Why he suspended? He sold his 2009 Independence Bowl jersey to former UNC defensive back Chris Hawkins. The NCAA designated Hawkins as an agent, or someone who markets amateur athletes. Despite playing in fewer games, Green has much larger game numbers than Jones. This is primarily a function of the offense Georgia runs.

A.J. Green did not have a fantastic day at the combine. I am not sure you can describe it as ‘poor’ the way some sources have, but it was not what he wanted. Green ran the 40 in 4.48 and 4.51, considerably slower than Julio Jones. He posted a vertical leap of 34.5 inches, four inches less than Julio. Most surprisingly, Green posted a broad jump of 10 feet and 2 inches. This is 13 inches less than Julio Jones. According to the rumor, did out-bench Julio 18-17.

The speed result was particularly disappointing for A.J. Green. Prior to the combine, it was widely thought that Green had a sizable speed advantage over Julio Jones. Green’s 40 time just erased that advantage. The measurables say Jones is faster.

So riddle me this Batman: If A.J. is a little shorter, slower, lighter, less springy than Julio, why is he ranked higher? Because he can bench one more rep?

Nope, that’s not it at all. A.J.’s game film is what’s done it for him. The kid has a preposterous highlight reel. He’s made some insane catches. I’ve seen him make one-handers in the end-zone that dropped my jaw to the floor. He also uses his hands just about perfectly, which is something that the critics look for. He may be a tad smaller, less fast, and less springy, but he can flat-out play, and that’s enough.

My thoughts

If you wonder why I would have any second thoughts about Julio after seeing the combine results, I can summarize it all in just one word: Chemistry. I have very little doubt that Julio will be great receiver in the NFL. I just wonder what kind of chemistry he would have with Sam Bradford.

Sam is our guy. He’s been wearing the Ram uniform for a year now. We need to get the receiver who compliments him best. If we are going to spend a resource as precious as that 1st round choice, we better get the guy who compliments Sam best.

For some reason, I have a difficult time shaking the notion Sam might have better chemistry with A.J. than Julio. If this weren’t a fucking lock-out year, Devaney could arrange interviews with Julio and A.J. where Sam would throw to them. We could study how they perform together, and how they communicate. Regrettably, this is a fucking lock-out year, and Devaney can’t have any contact with Bradford once it’s on.

That officially sucks. Believe me, I’m pissed. The league is fucking around with one of the most important decisions the Rams will make in the next several years. We need to get this shit ironed-out fast so the draft can proceed naturally.

Conclusions

Many are saying the A.J. Green vs. Julio Jones just might be the most fascinating position battle in the 2011 draft. Before the combine, it seemed that Green had it salted away. After the combine, it’s game-on baby. These two are going to be jockeying for position all the way to the finish line. I am sure there will be plenty of controversy and debate over which of these two fine players is better.

With the 14th pick, we cannot dictate who we get. Indeed, if Julio rises on the board, and A.J. doesn’t drop much, we might not get either of them. This once again, this suggests to me that we need to be thinking about moving up the board in 2011, not moving down the board. We need to secure one of these two guys.

At this point in the game, I just trying to relax about the question. If we can get one of these two guys, that should be good enough for us. For the moment, let’s say heads we win, tails we win.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

The Wonderlic test, revisited

As you know, the Wonderlic Cognitive Ability Test is a standardized intelligence test developed by an industrial psychologist named Eldon F. Wonderlic. It has been in use since the 1930s. An assortment of industries have used this test to gauge the potential of employees for positions and advancement. It is most famous today as the sole gauge of intelligence potential for NFL prospects invited to the annual combine.

You get 12 minutes to answer 50 questions. For each question you answer correctly, you score a single point. For each question you miss or fail to answer, you get zero points. The maximum score possible is 50, if you get them all right. The minimum score is zero (0), if you bolo every question. The objective is to place time pressure on a candidate and see how fast the individual in question can process data and a question and arrive at the correct conclusion. The faster you can process the data, understand the question, and arrive at the correct solution, the better your score should be. The higher your score, the more intelligent we presume you are.

Does this test matter to a football player? Many say the answer is yes. Many say that the significance of this test varies by position. Most focus on the quarterback position, declaring that the QB is the nerve center of the offense. This is the man who must process information lightning quick, understand the problem being posed to him by the defense, and make the right decision about where to put the football. Most agree that this is the one position where the Wonderlic score matters most.

A whole bunch of research has been done on the ultimate career outcomes of NFL Quarterbacks, given their Wonderlic scores. A lot of very interesting results have sprung out of that research. Let me give you a few examples:
  1. The average score for a starting Quarterback in in the NFL 25.
  2. It is difficult to reach the Super Bowl with a QB who scored less than 28.
  3. Given two teams in the Super Bowl, the team whose quarterback has the highest Wonderlic almost always wins. This happens even in extremely unlikely circumstances such as Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning scored a 39, and Tom Brady scored a 33, respectively.
All of this brings me to the point I wanted to make in this blog. Aaron Rodgers scored 35 on his Wonderlic test. Ben Roethlisberger scored 25 on his Wonderlic test. Of course, the Packers won and the Steelers lost. It should be noted that Rodgers did outperform his counterpart by a considerable margin. Do you think he's smarter than Ben Roethlisberger? Do you think he outperformed Ben Roethlisberger because he is the smarter guy?

I think the answer is pretty cut and dried, Yes.

Many would also look at the issue of accuracy. As so many have observed, a passer's accuracy is of primary importance. If he can't put the football where he wants it to go, all the size, strength, speed, toughness and smartness in the world won't matter. A quarterback must be accurate.

It should be noted that Aaron Rodgers is a far more accurate passer than Ben Roethlisberger. Rodgers just might be the most accurate passer in the league right now. He can put a bullet through a momentary fracture in space-time before you have noticed it exists.

All of this brings me the second big point I want to make in this in this blog entry. You know, my Rams just happen to have a young quarterback who scored a 36 on his Wonderlic test last year. he also happens to be an extremely accurate passer. Most authorities say Sam is one of the most accurate passer in NCAA history. In a year or so, he just might be challenging Aaron Rodgers for the accuracy crown.

As many have correctly observed, the Packers are loaded. This may only be the first of a series of championships for them. They are set up for 3 or 4 great seasons in a row. They may well become the dynasty of this new decade.

I want to give a word of encouragement to my fellow Ram-fans. If we do what we have to do in this draft, and if we don't fuck it up, we just might be contending with these Packers sooner rather than later. In a few years, the NFC may come down to the Packers vs. Rams, and that could happen several times in a row.

What do we have to do to get there? Well, I'll tell you about that.
  • We need an absolutely deadly receiver like A.J. Green
  • We need an ultra-behemoth Guard, like Carl Nicks of the Saints
  • We need an elephant linebacker of the tweener variety. We need a guy who is too runty to be a defensive end, and too big to be a linebacker. There have been scores of these dudes in NFL history, and they are always the most destructive defenders on the field, despite the fact that you can have them for bargain prices. Our last great elephant linebacker was Kevin Greene, now seen coaching Clay Matthews. Kevin was our 5th round selection in 1985. He was also my favorite player in the world for a long time. We need another guy like him.