Monday, March 22, 2010

Mike Holmgren and Tim Tebow

The echos of the Brady Quinn-dump are echoing and reverberating around the league. Mike Holmgren effectively told the league he couldn't work with Brady Quinn. That is saying an awful lot. Holmgren suffered Brett Favre for awhile before he became a good QB. As Jamie Dukes put it, Mike Holmgren is known as one of the premier QB developers in this league. Yet Holmgren has effectively told the league he sees no value in Quinn at all.

This is a guy who knows QB-flesh when he sees it. Holmgren's reputation is well earned. In fact he may be under-rated. Consider this:
  1. He learned his craft under Bill Walsh, perhaps the most revered QB developer ever.
  2. He had a hand in Joe Montana's development.
  3. He developed Steve Young
  4. He developed Steve Bono
  5. He developed Brett Favre
  6. He developed Mark Brunell
  7. He developed Matt Hasselbeck
Bono is the only guy on that list who didn't make it to the ProBowl. He had a rep for being a super-sub though, so he wasn't bad. Note the fact that he has 2 guys in the Hall of Fame, and one more headed for the Hall of Fame. That is three Hall of Fame QBs on one resume. That is shocking.

Oh yeah! Kurt Warner also passed through town in Green Bay back in 1995. Do you remember that? He couldn't get a slot on that near-championship team because Favre and Brunell were already there. Wow...

When you consider Holmgren's credentials carefully, you have to acknowledge that this probably the best QB man alive in the world today. What is Holmgren thinking about Jimmy Clausen? well you can read about it in the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. Here are a couple of plain interpretations of this statement:



I concur with the summary given in both of those pieces. Holmgren is saying that Clausen in not worth the high pick he is likely to become. He would not take him that high. Why should he? Quinn and Clausen are two peas from the same pod. They came out the same school, the same coaching, and the same offensive system. Unfortunately for Clausen, Quinn seemed to have a better athletic endowment, and a better TD/INT ratio. Quinn looked like the better candidate coming out of college. Having just flushed the better looking bowl of water, why go back to the same well for more?

So what does Holmgren intend to do? He is not going to select a QB in the first couple of rounds. He will draft in the 3rd round or later. He also plans to host Tim Tebow in Cleveland, and he is admitting that he likes Tebow. A simple inference from these facts is as follows: Holmgren will take Tebow in the 3rd if he can get him.

Now wouldn't this just fit the pattern? A mobile, athletic, strong armed competitor who is raw as hell. Isn't that what Holmgren likes? Does that sound like Steve Young, Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and Matt Hasselbeck? Yes it does. Like Young and Brunell, Tebow is a southpaw.

There has already been talk about this on the NFL Network's Path to the Draft. Jamie Dukes was the only guy to cast doubt on the scenario, as it would force Holmgren to come out of his President's booth and do some coaching. Now do you think that is really a problem? Don't you think Holmgren would love do it again? Just one more time? Especially given a dazzling candidate like Tim Tebow, arguably the best college football player of all time? I don't believe Holmgren is a guy who wants to take his hand out of the soil.

Suppose Holmgren knows championship metal when he sees it. What would developing Tim Tebow into an All-Pro QB do for his reputation? Here is a kid labeled as a non-NFL QB by many. Turning 'lead' into 'gold' one more time would pretty well cement Holmgren's reputation as a Hall of Fame caliber QB developer. Yet Holmgren may well know the facts ain't that bad. He probably knows the job isn't that big, especially give a driven student. Of course, it's easier when the kid is made out of gold in the first place.

Suppose this scenario comes to pass? Don't you think this would validate everything I have been telling you about the false system of QB evaluation we are currently using in the NFL draft? Suppose Tebow were to hit big under Homgren's tutelage? What would this tell you about how we evaluate and develop QBs?

So if Mike Holmgren is smart enough to figure all this out by his lonesome, why aren't my Rams?