Friday, March 19, 2010

Is Pat Shurmer the root of all evil?


Prolog
  • We have established that only 33% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round succeed in the NFL.
  • We have established that selecting a rookie QB #1 overall, and subsequently going bust, will cost you 5 lost years of franchise history. It usually results in the firing of a head coach and a GM as well.
  • We have established that the Rams line, as currently constituted, has only 2 of 5 slots well filled. Therefore we are 40% functional at best.
  • We have established that the Rams have only a single NFL capable receiver in Donnie Avery. We believe it is his destiny to become a #2 receiver behind some player to identified later.
  • We have established that Marc Bulger failed due to his fragile body, and poor protection behind a bad offensive line.
  • We have established that Sam Bradford has his history of injury, including a broken left hand {view his Heisman photos} and a surgically repaired right shoulder.
  • The facts speak plainly that the West Coast Offense has been an abject travesty in St. Louis. In 2010, the Rams were the worst offensive football team in the NFL, scoring only 10.9 points per game. That is 32 out of 32.
  • We have established that the West Coast Offense is an outdated and outmoded scheme, easily countered by the deployment of the Bellichick Box.
It seems manifestly obvious to me that the Rams are preparing to move forward in the following direction.
  1. Select Sam Bradford #1
  2. Continue with Pat Shurmer in the Offensive Coordinator slot
  3. Continue to work with the Faux West Coast offense.
  4. Do little or nothing about our offensive line woes, pretending that the line--as constituted now--will be solid. Oh, ghee! I forgot about Fralley!
Folks, I am going to be brutally honest with you: This plan is absolute rubbish. To borrow a phrase from my English buddies: This is fucking bollocks mate! Our line, as constituted now is rubbish. If we put Sam Bradford behind this rubbish line, in the shark tank, with just one #2 receiver to throw too, he is extremely likely to become a medical bust. At best, he will become another Jim Plunkett story, going somewhere else to win, after the Rams give up on him.

So why the hell are we going to follow this plan of action? Why have we not abandoned the preposterous plan to implement the West Coast, which has been a persistent failure for some 4 years now? Why have we not fired Pat Shurmer? Why have we not headed in a more modern and aggressive passing direction?
  1. Bill Devaney spoke several times on the NFL Network before and after the draft last year. He basically telegraphed the plan for 2009, saying it was no secret that Steven Jackson is our best player. The objective is to build around him.
  2. Perhaps Devaney ordered Pat Shurmer to call runs on 1st, run on 2nd down, and pass only on 3rd down {when necessary}. What ever the case was, the result was the most predictable, boring, lifeless, lowest-scoring, least effective offenses the NFL has ever seen.
  3. All defensive coordinators who played against us diagnosed our simplest of all pattern inside of 4 minutes of game film. I had a hunch they were laughing like hell at us during the games.
  4. Perhaps Shurmer survived because he did as he was ordered to do, and because he could always complain that he had no viable QB on the Roster.
  5. So now Shurmer is going to be given his reward for being patient, and doing as he was told. The Rams are going to select the top passer in the draft, and give Pat the kid he wants to construct our West Coast passing attack around.
But what about the fact that this plan is flawed from its inception point? What about the fact that the West Coast is outdated? What about the fact that we don't have an offensive line? What about the fact that we are replacing one fragile passer with another fragile passer? What about the fact that we have only one WR?

When I hear a guy like Rod Woodson tell the world that we have most of the other pieces in place, we just need a QB to build around, I know for a fact he has not been watching Ram games. I don't blame him. Why should he? Clearly he is wrong. We are poorly prepared to draft a QB such as Sam Bradford.

They say insanity is continuing to do the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is precisely what the Rams are doing. If this all ends in tears, as I suspect it will, I think the new owner of the Rams is going turn over the entire cadre and start over again. We will have 5 lost years, and our next launch window will occur in 2015.

So now for the title...

Is Pat Shurmer the root of all evil? Probably not, but he is the Queen on the Chess board. Taking him off the board will break the current gambit and send the game in another direction. This is as it should be. Replacing Shurmer with Mike Leach, trading for Vick, and drafting Tebow would be the first, best and most modern gambit, sending us in a direction sure to give NFL Defensive Coordinators fits.

In the final analysis, I think the Rams are about to make a set of very dumb moves, with the appause of ESPN ringing in their ears. It will all end in tears, and all the so-called experts will act surprised, saying things like "who thought that plan would go wrong?" That same crew will act shocked when Tebow succeeds big time with the Steelers.

Why? Why? Why? Why can't they see this is the wrong direction? Ultimately it is because there are a collection of stupid biases in the NFL regarding what systems and approaches work, and what doesn't work. There are a number of stupid biases about what kind of college player makes it at the QB position and what kind of player does not. Regrettably, NFL teams are run by a collection of older men who are set in their biases and their ways. They are not open to the proposition that they can be wrong. They don't believe the dogma can be wrong.

Ultimately, this stupid and biased stodginess causes a 33% rate of success among 1st round quarterbacks. We mis-evaluate a lot of prospects on the basis of these biases. It also causes gems to be completely overlooked. I am coming to the conclusion that my team is going to be the stodgy & stupid bias team in this year's NFL Draft.

I'm warning you: the current plan is going to end in tears. There are too many predictable points of failure in this strategy for it to work out well. The new owner is going to flush the toilet.

Ultimately, nobody will be happier than me if I am wrong. If Sam turns out to be the new Dan Fouts and 1 better than Warner, I will gladly confess I was wrong. I just don't think that will happen.