Back to the combine! It's better than Christmas!

Last Thursday night's NFL Total Access was our first broadcast from combine in Indianapolis.  That is a significant significator.  It's the official start of the NFL draft season.  It's the unofficial start of the NFL business season also.

Love it!

I was pretty excited when I saw that the gang had been fully reassembled:  Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly, Charles Davis, Mike Lombardi, et al.  We'll be seeing Bucky Brooks and Corey Chavis soon also, I am sure.  I had heard rumors that Charley Casserly had signed exclusively with CBS Sports, and I was worried we wouldn't be seeing him on the NFL Network this year.  It is a good thing that rumor was false.  It wouldn't be the same without him.

It is so damn good to see you guys again!  You have no idea.  I was going to blog on this subject Thursday night, but I was a little preoccupied with prep for my next surgery on Feb 28, and a number of other mundane household subjects.

Sometimes I get a good feeling.  I get a feeling that I never, never, never had before.  I gotta feeling that this is going to be a really good draft.  The crop looks bountiful.  The crop looks good.  I am confident that we have some franchise changing players scattered across the top of this draft.  I am sure some of these kids will make it to the Hall of Fame.  It won't surprise me when they do.

Last year I complained bitterly about the poor quality of the seniors, the QBs and the offensive linemen.  I didn't like the Linebackers either.  Von Miller was the sole exception, and one of the three most exciting players in the Draft last year.

2011 was a poor draft year.  This is not the case in 2012.  This is a PH PHAT draft class.  The prospects look damn good to me thus far.  I am excited.

Speaking of Charley, he had the first Mock draft of the combine last night, and I think he pretty well nailed it.  Charley's list looked like this

1. Colts:  Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2. Browns (from Rams):  Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
3. Vikings:  Matt Kalil OLT USC 
4. Rams (from Browns): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
5. Bucs:  Trent Richardson RB Alabama
6. Redskins:  Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples DE UNC
8. Dolphins:  Riley Reiff OT Iowa
9. Panthers:  Michael Brockers DT LSU
10. Bills:  Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama

Most of the others felt he nailed it too.  The most critical critique came from Coach Brian Billick, who said "Charley's got 9 out of the top 10 players, and 6 in the right spot, so he's only wrong by 4.  That's pretty good!"

I would say it's probably a little more accurate than that.   What are the points of disputation here?  I think they are as follows:

1. The Redskins won't take Morris Claiborne
2. The Bucs will take Morris Claiborne one spot earlier
3. The Bucs won't take Trent Richardson. They already have a damn good power-back in LeGarrette Blount.
4. The Redskins won't go quietly into the good night without a QB in this draft.  Rumor has it that they are adamant about getting Robert Griffin III.  Charley is presuming the Rams will chose to drop back just a couple of steps to gain some extra picks and still get our man (Justin Blackmon) a little bit cheaper.  I think that's a pretty good guess.  I can't see our team passing on some extra picks, but we won't want to lose Justin Blackmon either.  Most believe we would be reaching for him at the #2 pick, based on our critical need.  This is probably and accurate assessment of the situation.
5. It is questionable whether the Dolphins would take another tackle so high in the draft when they already have the best OLT in all of football.  Riley Reiff would be relegated to right tackle duties, and generally, you don't take a right tackle so high.  Charley has said this himself.  I do understand the logic, though. Riley Reiff would seem to be the perfect bookend companion and counterpart to Jake Long.  If you get Peyton Manning in Miami, you might want to make this pick.  It will be a very tempting choice if Manning comes to town.
6. Some would dispute the Bills taking Courtney Upshaw, but the more I think about it, the more I think it is the perfect fit.  The Bills play a 3-4 defense and they need a pass-rushing elephant linebacker.  There is none better in 2012 draft than Courtney Upshaw.  He is an ideal choice for their needs and scheme.  Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I think he would go great with Marcell Dareus.  Wait... hasn't that been tried?  Did that workout once before?
7. Many of us are still questioning whether Trent Richardson will wind up going so high in the draft.  It's not that he's unworthy of the pick, he is a very worthy dude, but rather the fact that the RB position is so deeply deprecated in the modern NFL.  Most GMs just don't believe that you take an RB so high in the draft.  As always, it will only take one GM to make it happen, tho.

I look forward to many more of these blog posts as the Draft season continues.

Tragedy in Carolina

Folks, it looks like the Panthers are going to be next team to step up to the plate and make a tragic mistake. They're going to gamble on a quarterback, and the one they are focused on is not a good gamble. I feel bad for my buddy Eric. We've been talking football for four years now, and he is a big Panther fan. Last year, I went through this hell, but it was nothing compared to what he's going through now.

So why am I down on Newton? Setting aside the fact that his daddy is a deliverance pastor who asks for college bribe money, setting aside the cheating on tests at Florida, setting aside the stolen laptop, setting aside the bailout from Florida just ahead of the posse, setting aside the one-year wonder thing at Auburn, setting aside the bailout from Auburn just ahead of the posse, forgetting about both entertainers and icons, dismissing the 21 on the Wonderlic, we still have to deal with the Gruden thing.

Jon Gruden has reprised his lovely role in ESPN's quarterback-shakedown series this year, and Newton was the most recent kid to show up on the show. It did not look good to me folks. Boggies were showing up on my radar. Mike Florio put it succinctly when he said "Newton comes to the NFL with zero knowledge or experience regarding the way that offensive plays are constructed and called"

Folks, it ain't often that Mike Florio and I see eye-to-eye. We do this time. His conclusion is the logical one based on the evidence we saw. I saw a guy who was painfully uncomfortable with the entire situation, and painfully trying to smile his way past the agony of it. That's not good. My hair was on fire during that segment. If you compare and contrast that to the cool/easy competence that Blaine Gabbert showed in Moochie's "Game Changers" chalk-talk, we're talking about a led vs. gold comparison here.

Mel Kiper Jr. recently said that Clausen's appearance on Gruden's show last year damaged his stock, and promoted his slide. Folks, Clausen did a much better job in his Gruden interview than Newton did. My hair wasn't on fire during the Clausen segment. It was during the Newton interview. I think this one ranks at the tops of my "Politically Damaging" pre-draft events.

I'm not saying I'm sold on Gabbert as the top pick in the draft, but if you have determined that QB is your greatest need, you would be suicidal to select Newton ahead of Gabbert. You are certifiable if you make that choice.

This is reflected the most recent series of Scouts Inc Top 32 rankings. Gabbert is headed north. Newton is headed south. Gabbert was ranked at #8, he is now at #5, although his score of 96 has not changed. Newton's score has dropped by single point (from 94 to 93), and he has now slid from #12 to #16. This is Gruden's work for sure. Gabbert is probably rising because he acquitted himself very well on "Game Changers" and Gruden's show.

Nevertheless, the Panthers are signalling that they are preparing to make a tragic mistake. Just about all Mock drafts published recently reflect their signals, showing Newton as the #1 pick. Against all reason, they are preparing to fuck themselves in the ass. It's going to cost them 5 lost years folks.

Highly respected voices on NFL Path to the draft support this move. Guys like Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks defend this move, offering feeble justifications for it. "You have to take a chance on Greatness." "Playing it safe with this pick will just land them right back in this same spot next year."

I know why.

In boxing, it used to be common to use a term called "The Great White Hope". The term reflected White America's desperate craving to see a white guy reclaim the heavy weight championship of Boxing. Each time an untalented white dude would emerge in the heavy weight ranks, he would become the focus of tremendous marketing hype. A guy who was not really a contender became a contender. We knew he didn't have the stuff to defeat Muhammad Ali, Larry Holmes, Mike Tyson or Evander Holyfield, but he got the hype anyway.

The same phenomenon exists in Black America vis-a-vis NFL Quarterbacks. Black America desperately craves a great NFL Quarterback. What do we mean by great? A multi-time Super Bowl champion powering a dynasty, and a QB ranked at the top of the efficiency charts. The last great Black hope was Donovan McNabb, but with Donovan's career in limbo, someone else must fill the void. Newton is the 'born at the right time' guy who seems to have captured Black America's imagination, despite the fact that Michael Vick is much closer to the goal. Guys like Davis and Brooks seem so infatuated with Newton's physical prowess, that they are overlooking clear yellow & red flags. Davis and Brooks never do that under ordinary circumstances. They aren't doing that with Ryan Mallet who also has red-flags.

An unbiased observer can tell that this guy doesn't have what it takes to handle Ali, Holmes, Tyson or Holyfield (read: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even Vick) but he is getting the hype anyway.

I am sure you can capitalize on this hype in the short run. This hype can and will sell a lot of tickets at the box office. If this is the only goal the Panthers have in hand at the moment, they can succeed. For those who want to win? Well... uhhhhmmm... Maybe, maybe not.

Charley Casserly recently said "I could have 25 shots at drafting Cam Newton and I would pass on him 25 times."

Consider this well before you make a mistake.

Hallelujah! I am sure glad my Rams don't need a QB this year. It is just so damn good not to need a QB in the 2011 NFL Draft! I can hardly describe to you how good it is not to need a QB this time around. I tell you, Billy Devaney's 2010 call is looking better and better all the time.

A little draft update, 23 days out

Intro

We are just 23 days away from the NFL Draft. Of course, it is Mock-draft season. We see one mock draft after another, from one expert after another. Presently, a number of new trends are emerging. Just what are they?

Cam Newton goes #1 to Carolina

This notion left me shaking my head. A week after we got a scathing character report on Cam, his stock has never been higher, according to the mocks.

If true--and that's a big IF--this only goes to show that we evaluate quarterbacks on exactly the wrong criteria: Athletic ability and upside potential. Are those bad criteria? You damn betcha! We settled all of this in the debate last year, folks. The most import aspect of the QB is his mind, and particularly the intangibles of leadership, ability to handle big pressure, and desire. After this, we can begin to talk about accuracy and toughness.

There have been a hundred great athlete QBs who went bust. Not the least of these are Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell and now... maybe... Vince Young. Your athletic ability says nothing about your prospects as an NFL QB. Sorry folks that's the truth.

But is Cam likely to be the #1 selection? This is a different question. I still think the answer to that is NO. Granted, the Panthers are acting in a provocative manner right now, but I think they're playing a little game of Snooker. I think they are trying to snooker some team into making a deal for that #1 pick. That might be the Bills. That might be the Bengals. That might be the Cardinals. That might be the 49ers. That might be the Redskins.

When the chips are down on draft day, I think the Panthers won't be able to pull the trigger on a new QB. They will either trade the pick or use it for a defensive player like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller. If you take QB #1 in 2011, you are reaching like a moefoe. This class just isn't that good. If they do reach for a QB, it will be Gabbert.

The Bengals go defense?

You should have seen my face last night as Charles Davis and Steve Wyche had the Bengals taking defenders in their mocks. This was all the more puzzling because both Charles Davis & Steve Wyche showed Blaine Gabbert still on the board as they threw defenders at the Bengals. I almost fell out of my zero gravity recliner. That ain't easy to do folks.

Let me just say this... The Bengals want a defender with their #1 pick about as much as you want a peanut butter and motor oil sandwich, seasoned with a little Iodine-131 from Fukushima. Does that sound appetizing to you folks? I didn't think so.

Neither CB nor a DE answer pressing Bengal needs. I do believe that they are taking a QB or WR with that top pick, and then they will go after the complimentary position in the second round. It would be Gabbert in the 1st, and maybe Leonard Hankerson in the 2nd, if the scenario unfolds as Davis & Wyche have it.

Some still say that the Redskins select Julio Jones

Charles Davis is one of many who still think the Redskins will select Julio Jones. I've never bought that theory. I do worry about it sometimes, but it doesn't seem very realistic to me. If anything, this is a pimp-fake. The Skins may be trying to pimp the Rams for some picks.

The learned Redskin insider (featured on Path to the Draft) didn't buy the Jones theory either. I was encouraged by the fact that he sees things as I do. He believes the Redskins are 3-4 defensive team without 3-4 defensive personnel. Incidentally, Mike Lombardi called this one a month ago. Defense is their most devastating problem. It's even worse than their QB need.

WR is a deep, deep 3rd priority for the Redskins. No matter how bad their receiver stock is, a receiver can't help until you settle your QB problems. Furthermore, no matter how bad the QB problem is, Shanahan has a more pressing political problem.

Shanahan began his reign by blowing-up a good and functional 4-3 defense by arbitrary whim. Now the Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league. This terminated Mike's honeymoon in one shot, and created a lot of angry Redskin fans... not to mention one disgruntled Albert Haynesworth. That's $100m worth of disgruntledness there.

The consequences of this bad defensive move cannot be overstated. When Mike Shanahan get's fired in one year's time, people will point to his 3-4 defense verdict as the key mistake that shank his battleship. Notice I say when, not if. That isn't easy for me. I'm a big Shanahan fan and booster.

Shanahan's got a Fukushima Daiichi reactor leaking plutonium on his hands. He has to get this under control and clean up the mess quickly. Perforce, the Redskins go defense with this pick.

Tyron Smith is #1

Tyron Smith took a page from Andre Smith's playbook and did the shirtless Olympics at the USC Pro Day. For Tyron, it was a good move. Critics were worried about his sudden move up from 285 to 307. They were concerned that his new weight might all be flab. Nope, not even close. He looked like a clipping from the pages of the Incredible Hulk comic book. He looked every inch the prototype OT. There are questions about whether he is a right OT or left OT, but this hardly matters. He looks like the prototype, and it is a very poor class of tackles in 2011. Tyron will probably be the first offensive lineman off the board.

We'll see Jerry takes Tyron, or selects a flashy playmaker who puts butts in the seats. The Redskins fans seem terrified that the Cowboys will take their chosen 3-4 defender just to kick sand in their collective face. There may be some hair on that dog. The strategy of denial is a key stratagem in warfare.

Most teams are poorly positioned in this 2011 draft

If I've heard it once now, I've heard it a dozen times: Nobody likes their draft position in the 2011 Draft. Carolina fans are pissed that the team might reach for a QB at #1. Bengal experts are pissed that they might not get a QB at #4. Cardinal experts are pissed that they can't get a QB at #5. Dallas experts are pissed that they might not get a CB or the correct DE at #9. Redskin experts are pissed that they can't a QB at #10 and that Dallas may snatch their DE pick ahead of them. Lion experts are pissed that they might not get Tyron Smith at #13. The Rams are pissed that they might not get a crack at a receiver at #14.

Everybody is poorly positioned in this draft... except the Broncos. Many Bronco fans seem quite happy with the prospect of taking Marcell Dareus at the #2 overall slot. Some think Patrick Peterson would be better, but they also seem to like Darius.

For this reason, I suspect we may see more trade action on draft day than most experts expect. There's just too much discontentment with batting order for folks not to try something here. I think teams may find a way to help each other out. I know it seems unlikely due to the inability to bundle players and picks. It seems even more unlikely due to the inability to mortgage future picks. However, I still suspect that they may find a way to get it done this year.

The Ruling of the judge

As you know, the NFL and NFLPA just exited the courthouse in Minnesota a few hours ago. We expect a ruling in a 'a few' weeks. To me, a few weeks means at least two and less than four. Project 14 to 21 days for a ruling.

I find it intriguing that the NFL's counselor was questioned for nearly 5 hours by the judge. Comparatively little time was spent questioning the NFLPA's counselor. If you are questioned for 5 hours by the judge during a hearing, I presume this means you have a questionable position or case. Think about it folks.

Let's suppose for one moment that the judge rules in favor of the NFLPA. Let's suppose that this occurs sometime in the next 14 to 21 days. This would mean that the lockout could lifted, or partially lifted, anywhere between April 20-27. She could issue the verdict quite literally the day before the draft. That would be amazing.

It has been said that the NFL would need 24-48 hours of prep time to comply with the court order. Free agency could commence within 24-48 hours of the ruling. Suppose the verdict comes down on Friday April 22, 2011. What then?

We would have an amazing free-agency blitz in the immediate prelude to the draft. This has the potential to make for a very exciting, but chaotic and disorganized week of major moves.

Think about it folks.

The Redskins and young quarterbacks

It sucks to be a young QB around the Washington Redskins these days. Consider this.

Colt McCoy reported to Redskins HQ yesterday for his pre-draft workout. This is the very day the whole compound is buzzing about the arrival of Donovan McNabb. Of all the Pyhrric and pointless exercises ever done... The Redskins don't even have a 2nd rounder to take him. Neither do they have a 3rd rounder, not that Colt would fall that far. Colt must have been scratching his head a little. He was practicing his interview skills, I guess. I guess it's also a chance to rub elbows.

Now we have Sam Bradford visiting the Redskins today. Today is the day of the McNabb news conference at Redskin HQ. I feel bad for Sam. We are almost certain that the Redskins will not be dealing for him on draft day. Sam wanted to play for Mike Shanahan. He was hoping to be Mike's next protégé prodigy. Perhaps this will make him feel just a bit better about the Ram opportunity.

When NFL Network draft scout Charles Davis was asked why the Redskins would continue with the process of interviewing these young QBs he simply said: "These were non-refundable airplane tickets. They had to go through with it."

Later, Jason La Canfora spun the silly yarn that "You have to due your due diligence; you never know when these kids might come up in free agency."

Consider the most unhappy of them all. Whilst the Redskins welcome McNabb and workout out erstwhile prospects, Jason Campbell is watching daytime TV at home and awaiting his fate. Reportedly, he had a swanky breakfast with Shanahan who instructed him to stay away from the Redskins' compound. You know that's not nice. That's as close to "your fired" as it gets in the NFL. A number of deals are in progress right now. At this point, nobody knows which scenario will be the one. The Redskins will try to get this deal done before the draft, but it is absolutely clear that Campbell is not a part of the Redskins' plan now.

The Redskins are going to have some irritated young QBs to deal with, not to mention the Eagles.

So how did we get the impression that Tebow does everything wrong?

I just finished up an argument online with naybobs on the subject of Tim Tebow. I was amazed at how overstated the critiques of Tim are. Some came out echoing the sentiments of the notorious Jaguar lineman who said "He can't throw." That was reason #1 and #5 on this swarthy moron's list of reasons why Tebow won't make it in the NFL. The folks on my message board went deep into the atrocities and travesties of his throwing motion and footwork. You see, from a Quarterback's point of view, Tim Tebow does everything wrong. This is why he'll never make it in the NFL.

So they said. Of course, these are all NFL QB coaches with Hall of Famer QBs on their resume. err... you mean you haven't done anything but watch football since High School?

Critics, you gotten down right stupid. The balanced people out there know it. Stop and consider the dramatic exaggerations of fact you are spewing. If it were true what you say, if Tebow does do everything wrong from the viewpoint of a real quarterback, how then do you explain any of the young man's many achievements? If his mechanics were utterly and fatally flawed, he never would have started or played in the first place at the 2 time national champion Florida Gator teams. If he did everything wrong, he would have been converted to another position, he would have ridden the bench, or his scholarship would have been revoked. There is simply no other possibility.

"Oh but the pro game is so different from the college game..."

It's not that different. It is categorically impossible for wretchedly flawed quarterback (who does it all wrong) to become one of the greatest college football players in history. It is not possible for him to prove himself in victory after victory in the ultra-hard SEC. He could never have passed with a career efficiency rating of 176. He could not have won the Heisman. He could not be the 4th ranked QB in this 2010 draft. He could not be the subject of 3rd round considerations around the league. {The 3rd round seems to be the new consensus on the NFL Network.} You would not have men like Brian Billick, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, and Mike Mayock warning you: Do not bet against Tebow in the NFL.

Rich Eisen has hinted strongly in the direction of my last paragraph several times on the NFL Network. The most clear case occurred when he interviewed Tebow at the NFL Combine. Eisen is careful to remain neutral on most political issues in his capacity as moderator on the NFL Network. Yet he has found a way to ask a few damning questions of the Tebow critics. Jamie Dukes has been peppered once or twice. Clearly, Eisen does not understand how a QB so tragically flawed as Tebow can do what Tebow has done.

The solution to the conundrum is simple: The critics vastly overstate their case to the point of error. Tebow is not nearly as mechanically flawed as they say he is, and he is even more athletic than we suspected. Only in the case of Tebow does a score of 22 on the Wonderlic equate to stupid. For Clausen, 23 is not stupid. Have you forgotten that Tebow averaged a 3.66 GPA at Florida? Do you remember that he was an academic all-american also? He does not come off as stupid to me.

Tebows achievements are a fact, not a theory. The analysis and conjectures of his mechanics involve a lot of opinions, and theory. In a philosophy of science class many years ago, I learned a brutal lesson that has stuck with me ever since: You can't trump a fact with a theory. When the facts collide with the theory, the theory dies, not the facts. Right now, people are twisting the facts to fit their theory that Tebow will fail in the NFL. Scientists don't do that. Good scientists twist the theory until it fits the facts. If your theories & analyses regarding Tebow were accurate, the concrete facts would not be possible. Frankly, your exaggerations are so exaggerated that you sound stupid, not just factually incorrect.

Why does any of this disagreement happen then? Why is it that Tebow has become this polarizing figure in scouting realms?

1. Scout CYA: Tebow has such a big name, that nearly every team in the league began this draft season with an interest in him. More than a few (like the Jags) were prepared to spend a 1st rounder on him. Tony Dungy said he would take Tebow ahead of every QB in this 2010 draft. The scouts know that Tebow has some mechanical problems that need work, and they also knew he would need to learn about Pro style offenses. Ergo, they could not stomach the idea of giving him any sort of grade that would get him near the first round. Early cautious statements were not enough to dampen enthusiasm for the kid, so the scouts increased the intensity of their critiques. It's snowballed from there. Remember: No scout wants to be seen as the guy who gives a development project a first round grade. This is why they do CYA.
2. Jealousy: There are a lot of unhappy and jealous people in this world. Being half Latin, I know something about this. Angry jealousy is something that Latino culture excels at. There are people in this world who get pissed off when they hear that you achieved something, or that something good has happened to you. Their first reaction is not to congratulate, but to get miserable and angry. They wish terrible things would happen to you... like knee injuries or concussions. The sports world, in its zero-sum format, is full of this kind of bitterness. Surely, given the huge record of success Tebow has had, there are many bitter and jealous souls out there who wish it was them. The sports media are full of jealous and bitter jocks who wish it could have been them.
3. Profligacy: Colin Cowherd is one of these guys. There are lounge lizards and playboys all over the sports media, and all over the world. I'm talking about dirty, slimy, scummy bastards who want to get in line for one of Tiger's mistresses and talk about it on the radio. We have debauched drug dealers, street hookers, and gang bangers all inside the NFL family. Many are downright belligerent when it comes to religion. They have much to fear if any of the Abraham religions are correct, but Christianity holds a special place in their ire. A guy like Tebow is not well received by these types. Watching Tebow succeed for the next 10-15 years is more than Colin Cowherd can take. They want the nightmare of a Christian witness to end now. Got bad news for you Colin: You got two others coming up in this draft also; including the #1 ranked prospect.

Consider the biases of the source, the next time you hear outrageously overheated and overstated critiques of Tim Tebow.

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.

So Charles Davis and Michael Lombardi are breaking my heart

Just finished watching a segment of NFL Total Access in which the guys discused Tim Tebow's future... Partially with Touchdown Tim himself. Then Charles and Michael dropped the bomb on me. When asked what round he would finally go in, both Davis and Lombardi agreed that it would be round #1. "All it takes is for one team to fall in love with this kid and pull the trigger", said Michael Lombardi.

That wasn't all he said either. Lombardi also feels that Tebow must be drafted by a team with an offensive head coach; that is a former Offensive Coordinator. He does not believe that a team with a D.C. Head Coach (like the Rams and Steve Spagnuolo) can correctly develop this kid. Michael believes this is so because the Head Coach is going to have to develop a plan and program for Tebow and he's going to have to have the authority to carry it out. Lombardi suggested that the Denver Broncos and Josh McDaniels would be an ideal candidate for Tebow.

It should be noted, in passing, that Josh McDaniels was the guy responsible for turning the New England Patriots into a Spread-Offense team. The Spread is that "very quarterback friendly" system that McDaniels likes to talk about. The Denver Broncos favored their running game a lot this year only because they were nursing an uncertain defense and they lacked a franchise QB.

I find both of these points crushing. If Tebow goes in the 1st, we are going to have a very hard time getting him without making a deal. We might have to make a deal with Denver to ensure they can't get Tebow and we can. If it is true that only an O.C. headcoach can develop Tebow, we are sunk. We are happily installed with our D.C. headcoach Steve Spagnuolo.

I, however, disagree with Lombardi on this point. I think it would be easier for Spagnuolo to adapt to Tebow than any O.C. Headcoach around. All he has to do is turn to Pat Shurmer and say "You fired". Then all he has to do is make a phone call to Mike Leach and say "Are you interested in a job?" We would be set. Easy as pie. Easier for Spagnulo to do than McDaniels.

These were some mighty discouraging words though.

Dump your Titans stock as quick as you can

So I was just watching the NFL network a few moments ago, and here we have Mike Martz and Charles Davis playing Buy, Sell or Hold with François. Both of them were buying Titan stock. I was shocked. Their reasoning? This is a Jeff Fisher team. That is all.

No, no, no, no fuck no. That is totally insufficient and inadequate reasoning. Let me give you some Donald Duck in Mathematicsland courtesy of Matt Millen and Penn State. The Titans are 0-2. The Colts are 2-0. The Titans must travel to Giants Stadium New Jersey to take on Mark (dirty) Sanchise the freakin' franchise of the Jets. This is a loss for the Titans. For sure. No bullshit.

Folks, the Jets punched the Texans in the face. The beat 'em up, took their lunch money and made them cry. The Texans were shutout. The Texans scored 34 against the Titans. This does not bode well. The Titans were eliminated from the playoffs last season by a mean and nasty Baltimore defense they could not figure out. That defense was the product of Rex Ryan. A defense very much like that is headed straight for them. The bottom line is this is loss for the Titans. It may be hard-fought, but it will be a loss. The Titans open 0-3.

Some say the transitive law of equality does not function in NFL football games. I would agree, but I expect it to work well in this case.

The Colts are headed for a shoot-out with the Cardinals in the Desert. This game is going to be amazing. The Colts may or may not be favored to win against the Cardinals. I personally would favor the Cardinals by the slimmest of margins. I may be allowing my biases to show there. Pick'em. This may be the most entertaining game of the year. The Colts are going to have luxury of dropping this one and maintaining a 2 game lead on the Titans. Should they prevail, they will have a 3 game lead on the Titans.

They will have two matches against the Titans. The first is in Week 5 where they will journey to Nashville. Expect the Colts to split the series at the least. This will maintain a 2 to 3 game lead through 5 weeks of play. Nasty math for the Titans. They are digging themselves a mighty hole which is probably going to be too deep to dig out of. Don't expect the Colts to tank the way the Broncos did last year. There will be no meltdown in Indianapolis.