Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback

Michael Lombardi has quoted Bill Walsh many times saying "Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Even fewer are qualified to coach the position." We have established that Walsh was explicitly crapping on NFL talent scouts like Mel Kiper Jr when he said this.

Jeeeze! Why do you think a nice guy like Bill Walsh would say such a nasty thing like that about a guy like Mel Kiper Jr?

You know hind sight is 20/20. I think Bill was absolutely justified in saying this because over the 28 years of my study period we had:

• 38 first round QBs that absolutely went bust
• 22 first round QBs that made it
• 6 first round QBs that are middle-of-the-road cases, partial busts, partial success stories.
• 10 drafts in which no 1st round QBs were successful
• 32 ProBowl (or better) QBs selected outside the first round
• 4 undrafted QBs who turned into All-Pro guys

When you consider this stunning pile of facts, you have to wonder if somebody blind folded these scouts, spun them round-n-round, and put darts in their hands. The darts went all over the place. Dave's Law says that NFL QB success is randomly distributed with respect to talent scout grades.

This is not to mention the 9 QBs enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who were not first rounders.

The history of successful quarterbacks in the NFL is a true bugbear for the NFL Talent Scout. Nothing proves the tremendous fallibility of Mel Kiper Jr. better than the success rate of QBs in the first round over the course of the past 30 or so seasons.

Now that we have categorically proven that these fine chaps (like Mel Kiper Jr.) do not know what the fuck they are talking about, let us now consider the 2010 NFL Draft.

Kiper tells us that Tim Tebow is not NFL Quarterback material. Kiper tells us that Jimmy Clausen is a pro-system kid who is (perhaps) the most NFL ready QB in the draft. In view of all the facts that I have sited above, are you inclined to believe him?

I for one, do not believe him. I believe he is absolutely and completely wrong about this. I believe he is 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong about this. I mean to tell you he has a 0.00% chance of being even 0.001% right about this juxtaposition. I mean dead wrong and not even remotely close to being right.

I can site a stunning record of error which impeaches Mel Kiper Jr.'s credibility completely.