Hall of Famer Bill Walsh often said that very few men are qualified to evaluate the Quarterback position, and even fewer are qualified to coach that position. The context of that quote was NFL talent scouts. He was specifically crapping on NFL talent scouts. Walsh was counter-punching NFL talent scouts who had the temerity to criticism him for taking Joe Montana in the 3rd round. They felt Walsh should have gone after some real talent like Jack Thompson or Steve Fuller. What...? You never heard of those guys? They went in the first round in 1979. The scouts said they were great. Don't those scouts look like a ship of fools today? Hind site is 20/20, and they pretty stupid to me.
In 1979, the scouts were also highly critical of the Giants for selecting Phil Simms in the first round, so Montana had company.
Let us catalog the failures of talent scouts like Mel Kiper & Mel Kiper Jr over the course of many years. How many busted prospects have they given us? How many first rounders did not pan out? How many guys should have been taken higher?
- Jack Thompson 1979
- Steve Walsh Chiefs 1979
- Marc Wilson Raiders 1980
- Mark Malone Steelers 1980
- Rich Campbell Packers 1981
- Dave Wilson Saints 1981
- Art Schlichter Colts 1982
- Todd Blackledge Chiefs 1983
- Tony Eason Patriots 1983
- Chuck Long Lions 1986
- Kelly Stouffer Cardinals 1987
- Steve Walsh Cowboys 1989
- Timm Rosenbach Cardinals 1989
- Jeff George Colts 1990
- Andre Ware Lions 1990
- Dan McGuire Seahawks 1991
- Todd Marinovich Raiders 1991
- David Kilingler Bengals 1992
- Tommy Maddox Broncos 1992
- Dave Brown Giants 1992
- Rick Mirer Seahawks 1993
- Heath Shuler Redskins 1994
- Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1997
- Ryan Leaf Chargers 1998
- Tim Couch Browns 1999
- Akili Smith Bengals 1999
- Cade McNown Bears 1999
- David Carr Texans 2002
- Joey Harrington Lions 2002
- Patrick Ramsey Redskins 2002
- Byron Leftwich Jaguars 2003
- Kyle Boller Ravens 2003
- Rex Grossman Bears 2003
- J.P. Losman Bills 2004
- Alex Smith 49ers 2005
- Jason Campbell Redskins 2005
- JaMarcus Russell Raiders 2007
- Brady Quinn Browns 2007
There are some real howlers on that list of busts. There are names that even I, a total NFL addict, don't remember. There are years where the entire crop of 1st rounders went bust. Even in 1983, the greatest year for QBs ever, a couple went bust.
There are some names that really hurt me also. Dave Carr and Cade McNown are two of those. Dave Carr is Fresno State boy, and a hometown hero. Cade McNown went to UCLA shortly after I graduated. It was a great epoch for us. I enjoyed him a lot.
There are some things that all those names have in common. They were all highly touted by men like Mel Kiper Jr. They were all selected in the first round. They all went bust.
How many QBs over this period of time were drafted in the 1st round and panned out? Let's see...
- Phil Simms Giants 1979
- Jim McMahon Bears 1982
- John Elway Colts 1983
- Jim Kelly Bills 1983
- Ken O'Brien Jets 1983
- Dan Marino 1983
- Jim Everett Oilers 1986
- Chris Miller Falcons 1987
- Jim Harbaugh Bears 1987
- Troy Aikman Cowboys 1989
- Drew Bledsoe Patriots 1993
- Steve McNair Oilers 1995
- Peyton Manning Colts 1998
- Donovan McNabb Eagles 1999
- Daunte Culpepper Vikings 1999
- Carson Palmer 2003
- Eli Manning 2004
- Philip Rivers 2004
- Ben Roethlisberger 2004
- Aaron Rodgers Packers 2005
- Vince Young 2006
- Jay Cutler 2006
- Vinnie Testaverde Bucs 1987
- Trent Dilfer Bucs 1994
- Kerry Collins Panthers 1995
- Chad Pennington Jets 2000
- Michael Vick Falcons 2001
- Matt Leinart Cardinals 2006
- --- 1980
- --- 1981
- --- 1990
- --- 1991
- --- 1992
- --- 1994
- --- 1997
- --- 2001
- --- 2002
- --- 2007
What in view of all this data what are we to say about the quality of our NFL scouts when it comes to identifying and marking 1st round talent at the QB position?
- 66 QBs were selected in the first round in the 28 years between 1979 and 2007
- NFL teams (guided by scouts) are 22-38-6 at the QB position in the first round
- This means that if you select a QB in the first round 33.33% chance of getting a player.
- I have not confirmed this, but when you control for senior status, the rate goes up to 50%
- I have not confirmed this, but when you control for underclassmen, the rate goes down to 10%
There is another systemic failure that you must consider. A significant number of Hall of Famers are quarterbacks. A significant number of those quarterbacks were drafted outside the first round, or not drafted at all. When Favre and Warner go in, two more will be added to that roll call. I submit to you that each and every time that happens, a Scoutting failure has occured. The proof is that Yellow Jacket on the back of that non-first rounder. A gem came out of college and you failed to identify him. You fucked up.
I will consider all these scouting failures in another article soon.
The moral of this story is pretty clear cut: You better not trust what Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay say about quarterbacks in this year's draft. They are not reliable sources. They have more busts than successes on their records. They have a credit rating of 33.33% with me. Only 33.33% of what they say is true; 66.667% is false.
Pay more attention Mike Mayock. He's got better street cred.
