2012 Draft: Wacky prediction #1 Jim Irsay selects Robert Griffin III

In the surprise upset of the century thus far, Jim Ersay and the Colts will select Robert Griffin III #1 over-all in the coming NFL Draft.  Robert Griffin, not Andrew Luck, will become Peyton Manning's successor in the Colt's lineup.  This will be the shocker of shockers in 2012.

Why? Let me give you a list of reasons why:

1. Jim Irsay is a Gemini
2. Robert Griffin III is an Aquarius
3. A number of astrological programs I own predict Irsay will like Griffin better than Luck.
4. This is pretty straightforward, if you understand the theory behind it, but there are some interesting wrinkles in this pile of numbers.
5. Jim Irsay has been making some emotional and intuitive decisions lately... like the decision to fire Vice-Chairman Bill Polian.
6. When decisions are made at the gut-level, you chose the kid you like better, rather than the one who comes most-highly recommended.
7. In terms of pure combine numbers, it is likely Griffin will out-perform Luck at the track-meet in Indianapolis.  This will provide a fig-leaf of science to cover pure choice by preference.
8. Robert Griffin III will 'fit' with current Colt personnel such as Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Donald Brown somewhat better than Andrew Luck will.  These are three of the survivors expected to come forward into the new era of Colt football.
9. Many voices are muttering and murmuring about the coming era of the super-mobile athletic quarterback.  Of course, it's guys like Steve Young, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton who created this buzz.  RGIII is expected to raise that buzz.  Many traditionalists reject this argument vehemently.  I suspect that Irsay will be willing to give it a try.  

The interesting wrinkle is that some software programs predict Irsay will like Griffin better on first contact, but get along better with Luck over the long-term.  

Every have one of those relationships?  You like somebody a lot at first, only to discover you don't get along that well in the long-run?  Ever have a luke-warm to cold reaction to someone at first, only to discover you are highly compatible later on?

This is basically what the Astrological software predicts.  Irsay is going to like Robert Griffin a lot when he first meets him, but it may be a difficult marriage in the long run.  Irsay's first meeting with Andrew Luck is going to leave him cold.  He's just not going to have a good or strong feeling about drafting Andrew.  If he does, it should work out fine in the long run.

Beware of those gut-level and intuitive reactions to people.  You can't always trust your feelings.  As the scientists say, try to disprove your theory, don't try to prove your theory.  You're heart can tell lies.

An epic tragedy In Indianapolis?

My, my, my... Nobody seems to be commenting on Jason La Canfora's Inside Slant report on the NFL Network's Game Day Morning show. I guess that is because it was just too much to be believed. IF what we are hearing is true, Peyton's story-book career with Colts may end this off-season, and in way so preposterously tragic, the movie would never get made if a Hollywood screenwriter put it down on paper.

According to La Canfora, there is a growing belief among NFL execs that Peyton Manning will not be back with the Colts in 2012. The Colts must pick up a $28 million guaranteed option on Peyton's contract by March 5th, before the league year starts, and before trades are legal. Unless the Colts are certain Peyton can play again, and return to old form, it will be impossible to pick up his contract. It will blow their cap. The size of his contract and his three neck surgeries will make Peyton impossible to trade.

Peyton can renegotiate, and allow more time, but why should he? The Colts are in rebuilding mode. Reggie Wayne is likely to leave in free agency because Peyton's $28m does not leave enough cap room to sign him. Jeff Saturday is likely to retire, and the Colts OL is pretty much dogshit at this point anyhow. Peyton knows his next blow to the neck could be his last. He needs a rock-solid line.

So what option is left? The only logical option left is the following:

1. Release Peyton Manning, obtaining no compensation for him.
2. Draft Andrew Luck and start the rebuild in earnest.

Mind boggling, I know. Completely unbelievable that this is the way it may end...

This suddenly makes sense out of preposterous rumblings I've been hearing in the Colts forums. Essentially, rumors on the street say that owner Robert Ersay is infuriated with president Bill Polian, and considering blowing up his front office.

I scoffed at these rumors when I first heard them. Bill Polian is the 5 time NFL executive of year, and that doesn't give the man enough credit. He's the best exec in the league. Only a fool would blow him out. Don't cut your right arm off because you're pissed that Peyton has a pinched nerve.

Now all of a sudden, the threat seems credible.

Deion Sanders was one of the few voices that criticized Polian for offering such a huge contract to Peyton at a time when he knew Peyton was hurt. Deion also criticized Peyton for taking that contract at a time when he knew he was hurt. When all is said and done, this contract deal may be on the one and only fatal mistake of Bill Polian's career. A contract intended to lock-down Peyton's services until his retirement just may force his premature departure from Indy. What a backfire bomber!

If you are Robert Ersay, and you are forced to release (potentially) the greatest QB of all time, obtaining no compensation, when it was your intention to keep him forever, how would you feel? How do you respond when angry mobs of Colt-fans race to team HQ with firebrands in hand, ready to burn you out? I am sure Ersay is outraged by the position this deal has put him in. I am sure he is mad as hell at Bill Polian right now.

Booouuuuyyy... if the Colts loose both Manning and Polian, the party is all over in Indy. I can understand why few want to talk about this. This is an un-imaginably horrible ending to the story.

So Peyon Manning may indeed miss the 2011 season

The reports were not quite accurate, but they are almost accurate.

1. Peyton didn't have a 3rd surgery Sunday
2. Peyton didn't have a 3rd surgery Monday
3. Peyton had a 3rd surgery today.
4. Jason La Canfora was far too conservative when he said Manning wouldn't play in the month of September.
5. According to Peter King, highly esteemed NFL expert from Sports Illustrated, Peyton is going to miss a couple of months, and maybe the year.
6. However, President Bill Polian did not place Peyton on Injured Reserve, a move that would officially have ended his 2011 season.
7. This indicates Bill Polian does hope to activate Peyton at some point this season.
8. Peter King says the Colts medical staff will evaluate Peyton's progress for at least one month before any decision about the IR list is made.

I had a sense there was some real fire behind this smoke. Local sport talk guys with a good reps don't trash their careers with bogus reports like this. It means a life of flipping burgers if you do.

This is bad, bad, bad, bad stuff. A third neck surgery is rotten news for anybody, much less a world-class athlete. Ed Reed spoke about his own pinched nerve and how much he feared neck surgery. He said he will not undergo surgery until his playing career comes to an end. His research indicates that it just too iffy a procedure, with too much margin for error.

Let's hope three is a charm, but... Folks, let's put it this way: Third time is seldom a charm when it comes to surgery.

Tony Dungy was putting on a brave front this evening, saying the Colts will play through this and win games. Rodney Harrison stated the facts as I know them:

1. The Colts are team built around their offense, and not their defense
2. The Colt offense is built around Peyton Manning
3. Ergo the Colts are built around Peyton
4. Ergo Sum, without Peyton, the scheme falls apart.

You loose more than your All-Pro Quarterback when you loose Peyton Manning. You loose your offensive coordinator, your on-the-field tactician, and you loose your confidence. I don't care who the official offensive coordinator of the Colts happens to be. You know damn well the OC is Peyton Manning.

What is this crap about Peyton Manning being out for the season?

Rumor has it that Jake Query, a radio show host for 1260 AM Radio (WNDE) in Indianapolis, is spreading the word that Peyton Manning is out for the entire 2011 season.

Query reports that he has two reputable sources [whatever that means] who stated that Manning had third surgery on his neck either on Sunday or Monday. According to these reports, Manning will miss the entire 2011 season.

You can read about it here.

Colts owner Jim Irsay denied this rumor through twitter. He vows to clarify the situation soon. Ad meanwhile Peyton has absolutely confirmed that he is out for the opening game against Houston. Jason La Canfora says it will be more than just the first week. La Canfora is on the record saying Peyton will miss the entire month of September.

Jamie Dukes has routinely criticized the Colts organization for running without a back up QB. He often said they were playing a game of Russian Roulette. The Playmaker Michael Irvin has chastised the Colts for letting the team go this long without a good, strong, young, competent backup. I tend to agree.

Something a little like the worst case scenario seems have befallen the Colts this year. Of course, the worst case scenario is to lose Peyton permanently, and we aren't there yet. Hopefully, we aren't going there, or anywhere near there.

Still, I know the folks in Indiana are panicking big time.

Of course, I feel terrible for Peyton, one of the best men--in addition to the best player--in the league. We hope he gets better post-haste.

Still, I am glad I didn't make the Colts my favorite to win the AFC South. I knew something serious was up last year. Peyton just wasn't himself. Most reports indicated that he was not out on the field drilling during the lockout. That is most un-Peyton like. I knew something was wrong. Those stories were confirmed when we heard all these reports about two different surgical procedures on his neck. I knew this was bad, bad, bad stuff. Any surgery around the spinal column is dreadful stuff.

I am very interested in finding out what's going on here.

The end of the Colts as we know them?

Folks who have read this blog for awhile will know that I am no hater of the Colts. I am a Raider hater and a Patriot hater, but not a Colt hater. You will probably find 30 or more posts on this blog where I say terribly flattering things about Bill Polian, Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clarke, Reggie Wayne, et al.

The Colts have been a model organization for the past 12 years. They have not had a single losing season in that time. They have been a model of consistency, continuity, and sportsmanship during this long run. Like their quarterback and President, they are a class act.

With that said I am wondering if 2011 is the year of the breakdown for the Colts. I've watched the Colts first preason game from stem to stern, versus my Rams, several times now. I can't tell you the sense of shock I experienced watching the footage, over and over.

Essentially, what I saw was this: I saw a big, mean, physical, fast Ram offensive and defensive line beat the shit out of a bunch of smaller and weaker Colt linemen. I saw the Rams line knocking the Colts 4 and 5 yards off the line of scrimmage--and with velocity--on almost every running play. What I saw was the Rams playing big-boy football, a-la the Ravens and Steelers. We stood their punching the Colts in the mouth, with impunity, and it didn't seem like there was anything they could do about it.

I know... I know what you're thinking:

1. The Colts didn't have Manning
2. The Colts didn't have Dwight Freeney
3. You just can't tell much from the first preseason game
4. The Colts are a quality team, and they don't get excited about a preason game with Rams

All that is fine and good and true, but you need to have a look at that film footage. If you look at the way those two lines were utterly dominated, you will have to admit that there are red flag warnings flying during this game. A team that is coming up from the depths should not be able to physically destroy the elite Colts in this fashion.

The defense is particularly an issue, as it often has been for the Colts. During the Colts many quality years, they often suffered defensive breakdowns, and often at the worst possible times. Jim Mora was fired and Tony Dungy hired to fix this problem. Dungy often had to work miracles to resuscitate a dying Colt defense. Sometime he succeeded, sometimes he did not.

This is now the Colt's third year without Tony Dungy. In their first year without him, they fired on every cylinder, never missing a beat. Last year, the Colt defense began to crack and crumble. The Colts stumbled greatly on their way to a one-and-done playoff exit. Now in this first preseason game of 2011, I watched them get punched in the face relentlessly by a Rams team that has not had a winning record in 7 years.

I felt like reality was melting down and disintegrating. Folks, the Colts are now officially on my suspect list. I don't know if I can pick them to win the South. I am wondering if this is the year the tires fall off the waggon.

Rams over Colts 33-10

So, my Rams looked pretty decent defeating the Colts [who were without Peyton Manning last night] by a score of 33-10. It's hard to quibble with statistical and scoreboard domination.

Just between you, me and the lamp-post: We know thing would have been different if the Colts had had a fresh and healthy Peyton Manning playing throughout the entire 1st quarter. They might well have had 14 more points by the final gun.

We need an honest assessment, folks.

I took just three things away from this game:

1. Ray Lewis is quite correct when he says that the Colts would be a below average football team without Peyton Manning. Just a few days ago, NFL Network analysts Jamie Dukes and Warren Sapp were speculating about whether Peyton's consecutive game iron-man streak would continue in game 1 of this 2011 season. Charles Davis asked them how the Colts would fare without Manning at the helm. Both agreed that the Colts would not make the playoffs without Manning, and they might not have a winning record. I concur.
2. Sam Bradford seems to be absorbing the Josh McDaniels version of the Spread pretty well. Earlier in the year, I reckoned that this was more of a home-coming than a brand-new system for Sam. My instincts may be right. The good news is that we looked pretty sharp, despite the lack of off-season training.
3. The defense continues to look sharper and sharper under Steve Spagnuolo. I would expect that given a defensive master as the head coach. These guys have bought into Steve Spagnuolo's system, and they are investing themselves deeply in it. Even though they are not the most talented crew around, they are playing very solid team defense. You can do a hell of a lot of damage with team defense. Just ask the No-Name Defense of 1972 Dolphins.

As I have said before, we may well win the NFC West this season, and obtain the 4th seed in the NFC side of the tournament. This has everything to do with the West being a mess this year. I think we're going to slug it out with the Cardinals for the title. The 49ers and the Seahawks should bring up the rear, with the Seahawks looking like front-runners in the Andrew Luck bowl.

Just understand one thing: we entered this off-season with just one super-agenda item. The one and the only thing we absolutely, categorically had to do was obtain a big-playmaker for Sam Bradford to work with. This might have been A.J. Green, this might have been Julio Jones, this might have been Reggie Bush. It might even have been Mark Ingram.

We just didn't get it done.

The lack of a big-time and unstoppable playmaker will place a hard-cap on what we are able to achieve this season.

I'm getting a bad feeling about Super Bowl XLV

I'm getting a bad feeling about this Super Bowl. I have the feeling the Steelers are going to do it for the 7th time. Why? Two words: Ben Roethlisberger. The guy is a past-master of stealing games in the final two minutes of play. I have said this over and over again on this blog and in other venues.

Big Ben hasn't done this once, twice or three times. He does this relentlessly, game in and game out, for several years now. Elway's astounding record for two-minute victory drives is going to be in considerable jeopardy if Roethlisberger stays in the league for another 6-8 years.

He is a clutch guy. Roethlisburger is certainly more of killer-clutch guy than Peyton Manning. I believe he is more clutch than Tom Brady. Michigan men may want to dispute that, but I think it is true. I also believe he is more clutch than Joe Montana. The only guy I rank ahead of Roethlisburger is John Elway. I put Roethlisburger in a tie with Roger Staubach. Only Elway is more clutch than Roethlisberger. Incidentally, Montana was not more clutch than Elway. He wasn't more clutch that Staubach either. Allegations to the contrary are pure mythological bullshit. I saw the totality of both their careers. I know.

Roethlisberger is just too damn clutch. I was reminded of this fact (once again) when I got home last night. The NFL Network was showing a replay of the 2009 meeting between the Packers and Steelers in Pittsburgh. How did it end? With a last-second touchdown pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace in the end zone. The Steelers stole that one.

Do I need to remind anybody of what Roethlisberger did to the Ravens in this playoff tournament?

The moral of this story is clear: If the game is close in the final moments, Roethlisberger will win the game for the Steelers. We don't expect most QBs in the league to complete the two-minute drive at the end of the game. Most can't. In Ben's case, we do expect him to complete the drive. At this point in NFL history, there is no worse feeling than having a 4 point lead on the Steelers with 1:34 left go, and Steelers in possession of the ball on their own 30. You are sitting on sharp nails if that is your present situation.

I was actually shocked in 2010 when the Jets prevented Roethlisberger from completing a two-minute comeback drive at the end of their regular season game. I thought Ben was going to do it. My instant reaction was "Damn! Rex is an amazing defensive mind! How did he pull that off?" In most cases, I would be shocked if the QB did pull it off. I would be pissed at the DC if his unit gave up the game-winning drive.

I would much rather see the Packers win the game. If the Steelers win their 7th, it would add greatly to my dismay in life. Still, if you let these guys hang around, they will beat you.

How can the Packers win? I'll tell you how. You must deal with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in precisely the way teams dealt with the young John Elway and the Broncos in the Super Bowl. You have to put them down hard and fast. You slam them right down on the turf and blow their brains out by three scores. You need to blow them out. You can't just beat them. You cannot allow the game to be close. You have to turn on the afterburner full-blast and never shut it down. You must maintain a 3 score lead at all times in the second half. In this situation, the two-minute drill only shortens the margin of victory.

The Patriots certainly blew out the Steelers in precisely this fashion. This is the blue-print for a Packer victory. You can't expect to beat them by four. You have to beat them by 17 or more.

Can this happen in SB XLV? I doubt it. If anyone has the firepower to blow the Steelers it is the Packers, but let's remember, that stellar Packer offense will be facing the #1 ranked scoring defense in the league. I doubt the Steelers will yield that many points. This one is for all the marbles. I doubt the Steelers will lay an egg as they did against the Patriots.

Memo to McCarthy: Open up the playbook. Hit them with the kitchen sink. Make every drive furious. Be aggressive as hell in your play-calling. Score throughout the entire game. Turn on the afterburners full-blast, and keep them on all-game long. Don't shut down the offense. No goose-egg quarters. Try to score on every drive and every play. Don't ever shut it down. You're guys need to chop wood all game long.

Another monster upset. The Colts go down in the first round.

Drat! Fucked again! You know that's what Peyton Manning and the Colts are saying right now. The Colts have once again exited the playoffs in the first round.

This has happened before... several times. I suppose we really shouldn't be surprised. It was a nasty rough year for the Colts in 2010. If ever they were going to get out quick, it would be this year. Still, the Jets didn't look like the right candidates for the job. As it turns out, they were.

Let's face the facts folks: This is a fluke year. We've been feeling this vibe all year long. The games were exceptionally hard to pick all the way up until week 12 because their was so much noise in the system. Even after week 12, we still had no clear-cut dominant team. The Swami, Chris Berman said early on that he felt this was the kind of year when anything could happen, and dark horse might win the whole frickin' thing.

As we approached this weekend, I felt I should sit down and make my picks several different times. I did not. As you can see in this blog, no playoff picks ever went up. Why is that? Because I was not confident in making any picks. I had a feeling we were in a fluke year, and that means big playoff upsets, but I wasn't confident enough to sit down and call a slew of them.

Right now, things are looking bad for the favorites in the playoffs. If you are favorite, you better run scared. Who knows, the Ravens may be the next favorite to go down in flames. Certainly, Ed Reed's personal tragedy does not help their focus.

The Okie-Doke Offense

Last weekend, I heard Phil Simms say it best. Phil is still one of the best analysts of the game, and he hit the nail on the head. Regarding offensive philosophies, Phil said something like this:

"Run first, pass second. Run to win, pass to score. Pass to setup the run. Dink and Dunk. All of these sayings represent false ideas we choose to confuse our minds with. The real objective of good offense is always the same: do exactly the opposite of what the defense expects you to do."

Amen brother. I would only add to that two more phrases:

1. Get to the line of scrimmage quickly so the QB can read the defense and check off. This allows him to hit it where they ain't.

2. Use motion and formation to isolate your best playmakers against the defense's weakest sister.

If you implement these three elements of offense, you cannot be stopped. I like to call this the Okie Doke offense. Okie Doke is football jargon for showing them one thing and giving them another. You get the defense to buy something you aren't selling. You employ constant trickeration, negative influence traps, misdirection, play action, draws, option reads, option routes. Nothing is ridged. The ultimate goal is to just hit it where they ain't. Incidentally, that final pharse is baseball philosophy. This saying is frequently mis-attributed to Yogi Berra, but most historians give the credit to an ancient 19th century baseball player named Wee Willie Keeler. Wee Willie may be the greatest philosopher of football offense we have ever seen. Sun Szu frequently said "attack emptiness, avoid fullness". This is a simple way of saying don't go into the teeth of the defense. Just hit it where they ain't. Find the weakness and penetrate it.

If the defense has 9 men in the box and zero safeties, you would be stupid not to throw it intermediate or deep. You would be stupid to run the football into the teeth of the defense. If the defense is in a dime with three deep safeties, you would be stupid not to run the shotgun draw. Just hit it where they ain't. Attack emptiness. Avoid fullness. Do exactly the opposite of what the defense has set themselves to stop.

If you do this enough times, uncertainty, indecision, doubt, and finally a lack of confidence begins to take over a defense. Everybody sits and reads, instead of shooting the gaps and attacking, because they don't know what you are going to do next. This is the moment when the defensive gameplan has completely broken down, and the defense is on its heels. The offense has won.

Right now, Peyton Manning is running the NFL's foremost Okie Doke offense, with the Saints in a close 2nd place. You might say that Mike Martz is the NFL's foremost coaching authority on the subject, with Sean Payton in a close 2nd place. These are the offenses that are currently doing the greatest damage around the league, with the Philadelphia Eagles starting an assault on the top rankings.

Incidentally, I have praised Michael Vick's style as being a night at the improv. When he is in the game, the defense has no clue what he is going to do next. Even if you steal the Eagles' signals, you still don't know what Vick is going to do next. He is quite likely to throw away the play call and do something totally unexpected on any given play. Believe me, that is a serious Okie-Doke situation. Vick will find the emptiness and avoid the fullness, and he'll do it dynamically in real-time.

Being radical and unpredictable makes you dangerous offensively. Attacking the empty spots in the defense makes you really, really dangerous. Doing this dynamically in real-time makes you deadly.

This is the ultimate reason why I utterly hate ridged system guys, and in particular, rigidly constructed West Coast Offenses. The WCO has been played for some 30 years now. We now know its structure and its philosophy. We know what these OCs are trying to achieve. We have studied their methodology. If you enter the game with one of those ridged 15 play scripts, the defense is going to hammer your ass. It's all fairly routine, stock, off-the-shelf, cliche, predictable screenplay stuff nowadays. We defenders know what you want to do, and we know how to defended it. Unless you have incredible stallions, who can simply beat defenders 1-on-1, you are in big trouble if you run a ridged WCO script.

Of course, the true WCO coreligionists will never, never, never listen to this criticism. Those who are ardent and fervent WCO fundamentalist will speak of the wonders done by Bill Walsh in much the same tone that Born-Again Christians speak of the miracles of Jesus. They will tell you about what Bill Walsh, the founder of their feast, has done for them. You cannot reason with these people about what Bill Bellichick has done to them. Those who have been raised in a faith, and hold to a blind faith, cannot be persuaded otherwise.

Just remember, you can never convince anybody of anything at anytime for any reason, so don't even bother to try. They will simply say "Don't confuse me with the facts" and stubbornly move along there merry West Coast way.

I sure hope the NFL doesn't fine Peyton Manning

Manning Bowl II was a bust. The Colts destroyed the Giants 38-7. It was a pretty horrible game from the viewpoint of a casual observer. Worse for guys who chose the Giants, like me.

The most interesting thing about the game was the disturbed, worried look of concern on father Archie Manning's face as the game wound down. Eli did not have a good game. None of the Giants did. Archie's younger son took one hell of beat-down on the scoreboard and on the field. Archie was not happy, and you can understand why. He wasn't precisely mad at Peyton, but he was concerned about Eli.

It turns out Peyton was also concerned. Peyton politely declined to do interviews after the game. That is a first. The reason was obvious. For a guy who just had a great night, he had a terrible night. He might have had the worst great night a great QB ever had.

The body English was pretty clear. He looked a little sick to his stomach. I am sure he didn't enjoy inflicting a major league humiliation on his little bro in front of a national audience. He had to have mixed emotions about the whole affair. I am sure he declined all interviews because he didn't want to wax poetic about his team just axe-handled his little brother's team. Tony Dungy confirmed all this after the game.

Oh well, Peyton, it was a dirty job, but you had to do it.

Now the only drama is whether the League Office is going to do something really, really stupid like send a FedEx envelope to Peyton's locker with one of those nice fine letters. Technically, all the star athletes are supposed to make themselves available to national media after nationally televised games. Technically speaking, Peyton didn't do that.

The NFL front office would do well to leave this one alone.

The only time it ever worked out, Dallas and Troy Aikman

Each and every year, a team fresh off a disastrous season selects #1 overall in the NFL Draft. This fine year of 2010, that team is is my Rams. Many times, this team fresh off of disaster elects a quarterback with that first overall pick in the draft. When they do so, they are full of hopes and dreams that this guy will turn the ship around, raise the fortunes of the team, lead them to many Super Bowl victories, and make a dynasty out of a poor team. The young man is anointed as the savior of the franchise.

How often does it work out? I can find only one clear-cut case in NFL history where it did work out. That fellow was Troy Aikman of UCLA, selected #1 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the 1989 NFL Draft.

It wasn't Terry Bradshaw. He was considered a bust for a bunch of seasons before the 1978 rules changes, changed his fortunes as a passer. He still threw about 27 TDs and 24 Ints per season after that.

We also have problems with Peyton Manning here, but the Colts cannot truly be considered a dynasty at this point. They have a bunch of good seasons, but only 1 Super Bowl victory. Peyton could still lock down a couple more rings before he is done. If so, we will be able to say that there were two clear cut cases, but at this moment there is only one.

What about John Elway? Did that really work out for the Colts who drafted him? No.

What about Jim Plunkett? Did that really work out for the Patriots who drafted him? Hummmm... Nah, not really. It worked okay for the Raiders... eventually.

What about Eli Manning? Did that work out for the Chargers who took him? No.

What about Michael Vick? Aaaahhhh... How do you think the Falcons view that pick now?

How about JaMarcus Russell?

No folks, there is only one clear cut case where drafting a QB at the top of the first round ever produced a savior, a Hall Of Famer, multi-championship dynasty, and everything the organization ever wanted when they took the guy. That was Troy Aikman.

This is the reason why Aikman is still the Golden Boy of the NFL. This is why he is revered as a god-like QB by all those who watched his career. This is why people keep wondering if he is going to run for president someday. They expect him to win, too.

Aikman shouldered the pressure of being the Dallas Cowboy QB and savior with little signs of stress. He took one hell of beating in his first year as a pro with few signs of injury. He survived with his confidence and his health intact. He was accepted by Cowboy greats like Roger Staubach immediately as another Cowboy great. He was at his best in the NFC Championship games and Super Bowls. He led the Cowboys on a tear through the 1990s. They won 3 Super Bowls in just 4 years. They would have had more, but the salary cap and poor head coaches killed them. Aikman was not the limiting factor in the equation at any time. He survived a nasty concussion administered by Dennis Brown. He never had a personal scandal during his entire life. He went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He was one hell of player, and a better man.

As my Rams get ready to draft in this fine year of 2010, we need to ask ourselves a couple of very important questions:

1. Is Sam Bradford Troy Aikman?
2. Is Jimmy Clausen Troy Aikman?
3. Is Sam Bradford Peyton Manning?
4. Is Jimmy Clausen Peyton Manning?

I think the answers to 1 & 3 are clear and decisive "NO!" I rolled around on the floor laughing my ass off a few seconds ago when I wrote questions #2 and #4. Clausen is in no danger of being mistaken for Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning. Why don't you stand Clausen next to Aikman right now and see whether you notice some difference between these two men?

Some extremely foolish Ram fans may protest that I cannot downgrade these two candidates by comparing them to the most extreme cases of QB success in NFL history. Oh yeah? Why the hell not? You are talking about spending the #1 pick overall in the entire draft. We have only 1 and maybe 2 models of success for that pick. We need to use those two guys as the benchmark comparison for our candidates. If we don't have candidates that look like Aikman and Manning, we need to pass on them with that #1 pick.

One final thing. If you ask me which quarterback in this draft most resembles Aikman in terms of tangibles and intangibles, only one name comes to mind: Tim Tebow.

Dynasty Pilots vs. Great Quarterbacks

Before the Sunday night spectacular between the Patriots and Colts, NBC showed the results of a fantastic poll they conducted. The question was simple: Who is the better QB, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? The question was put to all Hall of Fame quarterbacks still living in this world today. Greats such as Unitas, Waterfield, Van Brocklin, Baugh, Luckman have been silenced by Death.

The result was a landslide for Peyton Manning. He won 13.5 to 3.5. Four members abstained. What the hell is the 0.5 at the end of those figures? Joe Montana split his vote. He said he would start Brady in the first half and Manning in the second half. Rodney Harrison violently objected to that. He believes Brady finishes better than Manning. Not last Sunday he didn't. Maybe Joe actually knows a thing or two about Quarterbacking.

I would not have commented on this poll were it not for the shocking fact that so many took umbrage over it. Their simple argument is so simple that it must come from a simpleton: Brady has 3 rings, Manning has 1, ergo Brady must be the better QB.

This is a classic example of how the QB gets too much credit when things go well, and too much blame when things go badly. Folks, I cannot say it loudly enough. No quarterback ever won a Super Bowl. Those who use this terminology radio & TV put their massive ignorance on parade before the public. Quarterbacks do not win championships, teams do. It takes 40 men together, plus some luck, plus a bad call or two, to put a Super Bowl ring on your finger. If you think quarterbacks win Super Bowls, you are a fucked up bitch indeed.

Everybody who knows and understands the sport of football knows Manning plays better than Brady. This is evidenced by the landslide victory Peyton just won among the Hall of Fame Quarterbacks. This has been true for a long time.

So why does Brady have more championships? Because he had the better defense, that's why. If you know and understand football, you know that offense wins games, and defense wins championships. In the first half of the 2000s, the Patriots had the most consistently excellent defense in the NFL. Sorry Ravens, you weren't consistently great during that stretch. The Patriot offense was nothing special. Brady would do enough to win, not a lot more. The defense was pretty stellar. Belichick's defense won those championships.

On the other hand, the Colts did not have a consistently good defense. They were not expected to be a factor at all in 2006 because their defense was collapsing as they went into the post season. Nobody could have predicted that that defense would go on one of the most dominant tears we had ever seen during that 2006 tournament. Guess what? The Colts won the Super Bowl that year. Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.

If I were to consistently apply your fallacious logic, I would have to say Trent Dillford was a better QB than Dan Fouts because he has a ring and Dan doesn't. I would also have to say that Terry Bradshaw is a better QB than John Unitas because Bradshaw has 4 rings and Unitas only had 1. I would have to say that Brad Johnson is a better QB that Dan Marino because Johnson got one with Tampa, and Marino got none with Miami.

Naturally, each and every one of those statements is absolute bullshit. You cannot judge a QB by his jewelry. Any attempt to do so is a homosexual assessment indeed.

Also, Bart Starr is better than Brett Favre because Bart got 2 rings and Brett only got 1. It should be noted that Bart doesn't even claim that. Bart Starr has said many times, in public, that Brett can throw the ball on his knees better than Bart can standing up.

Dynasty pilots get way too much credit folks. Bart Starr got a hell of a lot of credit because his Packers won a hell of a lot of championships. Everybody knows that was a running team folks. Some tried to say he was a better QB than Unitas. Why? Because he handed off more frequently?

I am sorry to say this about my fellow Virgo, born on September 2nd just like me, but Terry Bradshaw is the ultimate case of title inflation. While Bradshaw remains one of my favorite characters around the league, truth be told, he wasn't that good of quarterback. The Steelers were a running team. Bradshaw only had 4 games where he passed for 300 or more yards. That was for his entire career. Further, you should know that he was considered a serious draft bust until 1976. The pressure turned off when the Steelers won their 2nd Super Bowl. Bradshaw didn't turn into a quality quarterback until the 1978 rules changes suddenly transformed him into the Blond-Bomber. Even then, he averaged about 27 TDs and about 25 Ints per year.

During the time he played, everybody knew Staubach and Stabler were better than Bradshaw. Still, 'Bradshaw often beat' these guys in head to head competition. Guess why? Bradshaw had the better defense. He won more championships because he had a better defense. Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.

Then we go forward to Joe Montana. I have already blogged about the NFL's greatest myth. Look it up on my blog. Folks, everybody who watched football during the 1980s knew Joe was a good quarterback, but we also knew Elway and Marino were better. Now the 49ers never had any defense, right? BULLSHIT! BULL FUCKING SHIT! You go check out the statistics my friend. The 49ers were #2 in total team defense in 1981, the year they first won the Super Bowl. That defense was so good, they were able to overcome 4 turnovers by Joe in the NFC championship game against Dallas. You go check out the film. You will see Joe throw a few dastardly picks during that game.

What about Aikman? Well, that was truly a stellar QB on a running team. Aikman had limited statistical success in the league because the Dallas offense was about muscling it down your throat with Moose Johnston and Emit Smith. Still, everybody who saw him play knew he could be called upon to any extent you needed to make any throw in the book at any time. It should be noted that he had a Hellacious defense in his back-pocket also.

Tom is a good guy, but like several before him, he was very fortunate to be in the right place at the right time. Similar to Joe Montana, many believe he would not have been successful anywhere else in the league. On the other hand, Manning would have piloted New England to 4 or 5 championships easy.