Back to the combine! It's better than Christmas!

Last Thursday night's NFL Total Access was our first broadcast from combine in Indianapolis.  That is a significant significator.  It's the official start of the NFL draft season.  It's the unofficial start of the NFL business season also.

Love it!

I was pretty excited when I saw that the gang had been fully reassembled:  Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly, Charles Davis, Mike Lombardi, et al.  We'll be seeing Bucky Brooks and Corey Chavis soon also, I am sure.  I had heard rumors that Charley Casserly had signed exclusively with CBS Sports, and I was worried we wouldn't be seeing him on the NFL Network this year.  It is a good thing that rumor was false.  It wouldn't be the same without him.

It is so damn good to see you guys again!  You have no idea.  I was going to blog on this subject Thursday night, but I was a little preoccupied with prep for my next surgery on Feb 28, and a number of other mundane household subjects.

Sometimes I get a good feeling.  I get a feeling that I never, never, never had before.  I gotta feeling that this is going to be a really good draft.  The crop looks bountiful.  The crop looks good.  I am confident that we have some franchise changing players scattered across the top of this draft.  I am sure some of these kids will make it to the Hall of Fame.  It won't surprise me when they do.

Last year I complained bitterly about the poor quality of the seniors, the QBs and the offensive linemen.  I didn't like the Linebackers either.  Von Miller was the sole exception, and one of the three most exciting players in the Draft last year.

2011 was a poor draft year.  This is not the case in 2012.  This is a PH PHAT draft class.  The prospects look damn good to me thus far.  I am excited.

Speaking of Charley, he had the first Mock draft of the combine last night, and I think he pretty well nailed it.  Charley's list looked like this

1. Colts:  Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2. Browns (from Rams):  Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
3. Vikings:  Matt Kalil OLT USC 
4. Rams (from Browns): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
5. Bucs:  Trent Richardson RB Alabama
6. Redskins:  Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples DE UNC
8. Dolphins:  Riley Reiff OT Iowa
9. Panthers:  Michael Brockers DT LSU
10. Bills:  Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama

Most of the others felt he nailed it too.  The most critical critique came from Coach Brian Billick, who said "Charley's got 9 out of the top 10 players, and 6 in the right spot, so he's only wrong by 4.  That's pretty good!"

I would say it's probably a little more accurate than that.   What are the points of disputation here?  I think they are as follows:

1. The Redskins won't take Morris Claiborne
2. The Bucs will take Morris Claiborne one spot earlier
3. The Bucs won't take Trent Richardson. They already have a damn good power-back in LeGarrette Blount.
4. The Redskins won't go quietly into the good night without a QB in this draft.  Rumor has it that they are adamant about getting Robert Griffin III.  Charley is presuming the Rams will chose to drop back just a couple of steps to gain some extra picks and still get our man (Justin Blackmon) a little bit cheaper.  I think that's a pretty good guess.  I can't see our team passing on some extra picks, but we won't want to lose Justin Blackmon either.  Most believe we would be reaching for him at the #2 pick, based on our critical need.  This is probably and accurate assessment of the situation.
5. It is questionable whether the Dolphins would take another tackle so high in the draft when they already have the best OLT in all of football.  Riley Reiff would be relegated to right tackle duties, and generally, you don't take a right tackle so high.  Charley has said this himself.  I do understand the logic, though. Riley Reiff would seem to be the perfect bookend companion and counterpart to Jake Long.  If you get Peyton Manning in Miami, you might want to make this pick.  It will be a very tempting choice if Manning comes to town.
6. Some would dispute the Bills taking Courtney Upshaw, but the more I think about it, the more I think it is the perfect fit.  The Bills play a 3-4 defense and they need a pass-rushing elephant linebacker.  There is none better in 2012 draft than Courtney Upshaw.  He is an ideal choice for their needs and scheme.  Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I think he would go great with Marcell Dareus.  Wait... hasn't that been tried?  Did that workout once before?
7. Many of us are still questioning whether Trent Richardson will wind up going so high in the draft.  It's not that he's unworthy of the pick, he is a very worthy dude, but rather the fact that the RB position is so deeply deprecated in the modern NFL.  Most GMs just don't believe that you take an RB so high in the draft.  As always, it will only take one GM to make it happen, tho.

I look forward to many more of these blog posts as the Draft season continues.

Virgo-Pisces Alliance No.228: Why is Trent Dilfer Andrew Luck's biggest fan?

So, unless you have been under a rock for the past two years, you probably know the name of Andrew Luck.  You probably know that he is expected to the be the #1 over-all pick in the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.  Unless something really unexpected happens, the Colts will take him and begin their rebuilding effort in verity & sooth.

I will blog about Jim Irsay's very interesting dilemma soon, but not this time.

One of the things football fans have noticed over the course of the past several months is that Andrew Luck has many advocates.  In fact, he has almost zero (0) detractors.

So far, only Phil Simms has risen in critique of Andrew Luck.  I have the greatest respect for Phil Simms, and I view him as one of the top-analysts of the game.  However, I think his critique of Andrew is off-base.  I just don't see it his way.  I just can't see on film what he claims to have seen on film.  When Phil says Andrew doesn't make NFL-type throws, I simply can't understand what he's talking about.  I've seen almost nothing but NFL-type throws out of the kid.  The weight of evidence is greatly against Phil.

Among all of the many advocates Andrew has, one stands out above all the rest.  That would be Trent Dilfer.  Trent Dilfer has said extraordinary things about Andrew.  Like what?  How about "Andrew Luck has no flaws".

Wow... that would make Andrew Luck perfect, now wouldn't it?  I rate the kid pretty dang high, but I would stop shy of perfect.  It's pretty clear that Trent doesn't shy away from that statement.  He believes Andrew will have the most glory-ladened career of all the young'ins coming up in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Trent really believes he is the perfect QB candidate.

It's to be expected.  Trent is a March 13, 1972 Pisces dude.  Andrew is a September 12, 1989 Virgo kid.  That's almost a perfect 180, folks.  The circular distance between March 13 and September 12 is almost exactly 180 degrees.  That is the most powerful angle for attraction, balance, and complementary.  Sirius 1.1 doesn't score them that high, but this is one of those false negatives I like to harp upon.  Looking at the two charts in comparison, I can see obvious things the scoring engine missed.  Dilfer likes Luck better than Sirius says.

Incidentally, Trent is birthday-buddies with my brother.  My brother is 3 years younger.  Once upon a time, I was Trent Dilfer's biggest advocate in the NFL Draft.  I was the leader of the Draft-Trent movement among the Ram fans back 1994.  I was so incandescently pissed-off  when my Rams failed to broker a deal in that draft that I literally took a couple of years off from football.  I knew we were going to suck.  1994-1998 were absolutely dreadful years, only exceeded by our recent stretch of time.  I maintain those would have been much better years if we had made a deal and selected Trent.  Our biggest problem in those days was the QB position.

If you have been keeping track of super-recent events, you know that a debate is emerging inside NFL business circles.  The question is simple.  Who is better:  Andrew Luck of Robert Griffin III?  This is natural occurrence.  We always have too much time on our hands this time of year, ergo we chew over questions and non-questions a thousand times.  Just a couple of months ago, this question would have been considered untenable.

I want to make some specific predictions about this coming debate:

1. It will rage on until draft day
2. RGIII's knee injury will not deter this debate.  Andrew had one also.
3. The Fire/Air Alliance will back RGIII
4. The Earth/Water Alliance will back Andrew Luck.
5. Mike Mayock is going to be torn.  He's next door to Andrew and 180 degrees away from RGIII.  He's going to struggle with this one.  I bet he loves both of these kids.
6. The same goes for Mel Kiper.
7. Todd McShay will side with RGIII
8. Trent Dilfer will continue to be Andrew Luck's biggest advocate.
9. Kurt Warner & Rich Eisen will side with Andrew Luck.

It's draft week folks.

We are at T-Minus 78 hours and counting to the launch of the draft folks. Thursday evening at 4:00 pm PST, the gavel will fall and the Panthers shot-clock will start. Let's hope they don't fuck it up by selecting Cam. I pitty you, Eric. You have my profound condolences.

A few key precepts

1. This is a razor-thin draft. There is no depth to this draft. Once we are thought round 3, stick a fork in it, cuz we are done.
2. The 2011 draft cannot compare in any way with the 2010 draft. 2010 was vastly superior to 2011. Understand that this is the weakest senior class Charlie Casserly has seen in 27 years in this business.
3. There will be a large and disproportionally high ratio of over-drafted disappointments and busts in this draft.
4. This is a defensive draft, not an offensive draft.
5. What depth there is in this skinny draft exists at the defensive end position.
6. The linebacker position is the thinest position in this draft class. Von Miller is the only impact player at the LB position. Akeem Ayers is the only good 2nd rounder. Chris Matthews is the only guy I want to select in round 3. This is a terrible year to be in need of a linebacker.
7. This is a bad year for the QB position. I just heard Rich Eisen suggesting that this is a 'seemingly' quarterback rich draft. This is marketing hype. It's quarterback rich like the year 2000. There may be another Brady 6 in this draft. There are more suspects than prospects at the QB position.
8. This is a wretched year for offensive linemen. Heavy-legged waist-benders with limited upper body strength, and skinny bastards too! Mike Pouncey is the only guy I would bank on as a blue-chip, can't miss prospect.
9. This is a very good year for Wide Receivers. We have two really sweet choices up top and a few others that might pan out in round 2. This is a good year to be in need of a WR.

Devaney unlikely to move up?

I want to preface this section by reminding us all that this is disinformation week. As Mike Lombardi says, it is liar's poker season. There will be more negative influence, trap plays, pump fakes, subterfuge and deception this week than any other week of 2011. Everyone is smoke-screening like a moe-foe, covering up their real intentions.

I have read several nasty reports that Billy Devaney intends to stay put at #14. In an interview with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Devaney said that he felt the Rams were smack in the sweet-spot of the draft. Chances are that the Rams will stay put.

Of course, Billy would not be inclined to tell you he has potential deals in the works with the Cardinals and Cowboys even if it were so, now would he? This would only make WR desperate teams more inclined to try to jump us and take their man, right? This can only increase the cost of any potential deal, correct?

I can only say the following: If we aren't smart enough to mortgage the farm to get A.J. Smith, I hope we will take either J.J. Watt or Mike Pouncey. I see these two young men as can't miss blue-chips in any system, and at various positions. Although I would love to have Watt, I supppose Pouncey fills the greater need. I would be glad to see him join the team.

Anybody remember Leonard Hankerson?

Leonard Hankerson is the latest edition of Big-Bird. He was the big-time wide receiver at The U of Miami over the past several years. His draft stock is very uncertain. Many still accord him 2nd round draft status, although many are now reporting that he is slipping into the 3rd round. Mike Mayock's review of Hankerson has inspired much fear. Mayock has emphasized the dropped passes and questionable work ethic he has seen in Hankerson, almost identifying him as a one-year wonder.

Of course, you know I greatly appreciate Mike Mayock. He is one of the few authorities I trust on the draft. However, in this case, I inclined to disagree. I know Hankerson had drop-problems early in his career. I know he has been working hard with Mark Super Duper on this problem. During his senior year I saw real progress and few if any drops. Now, I haven't seen all his game film, so there may be more drops I haven't seen.

If worse comes to worse, and we don't nail one of the top two prospects at the WR position, I would hope we would be smart enough to nail Leonard Hankerson. His combine numbers are terrific. He was sensational at the senior bowl. He is a Taurus kid and will have good synastry with a Scorpio guy like Sam Bradford. Trust me on this one. They will matchup nicely.

If we can have him in the 3rd round, we better do it. CBS Sports currently ranks Hankserson as the 80th best prospect in the draft. It should be noted that the Rams have the 78th pick. Let's get him.

It is better...

1. It is better to have one or two blue-chippers than 7 nothings and nobodies.
2. Knowing that there is little DT depth in this draft, I would hope we would select versatile dude like J.J. Watt, or pass on all of them.
3. Knowing that there are no linebackers in this draft for the Rams, it is better to get a few (like Chase Blackburn) in free agency than to draft projects.
4. Knowing that there are few offensive linemen in this draft, I hope we will have the wisdom to reach for Pouncey or pass on them entirely.
5. Knowing that there are a couple of blue-chip receivers in this draft, it is better to go after them with our draft picks than to get a temporary WR fix in free agency.
6. It is better to fix our defense in free agency than to reach for some questionable prospects through the middle rounds of this razor-thin draft.
7. Strangely enough, I think it is better to go contrariwise in this draft and select offense over defense.

What we need to remember

1. There ain't no use in having a good quarterback if you don't have a receiver to catch his passes down field.
2. Having a quarterback with no receiver is like having a cigarette with no lighter.
3. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having cornflakes with no milk.
4. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having peanut butter with no jelly.
5. Having a quarterback with no receivers is like having Mac with no cheese.
6. We have $50 million invested in a pretty good quarterback
7. We have an absolute #1 pick in phattest draft in recent memory long-sunk in a pretty damn good quarterback.
8. It is a categorical moral imperative to weaponize Sam in this 2011 draft.
9. Getting a big-time receiver in this 2011 draft is the sine qua non, that without which nothing else is possible.

The run of the mill gang, 2011

So, I was reading the NFL news this morning, and a fundamentally solid dude by the name of Steve Wyche informed us all that many NFL teams think that Blaine Gabbert is nothing special. You can read it for yourself here. Now, while Blaine is a very clean kid, and a very winsome likable guy, I am forced to agree... 100%.

Sorry world. I would much rather like the kid. There is nothing to dislike, on a personal basis. Understand this: If Andrew Luck were in this draft, you know who everybody would be clamoring for. You know Gabbert has risen because there is nobody else to occupy that vacuum at the top QB position. Nature abhors a vacuum.

As Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said last night on NFL Total Access, there are no Sam Bradfords in this year's draft. I was greatly heartened to discover that he sees things much as I do.

This brings us to point two of Wyche piece. He very strongly implies that Cam Newton could easily become the one memorable and hall of fame QB in this draft. I would add just one caveat: provided he doesn't bust outright.

Understand this: I would much rather like Cam Newton. Cam is a Taurus kid. He's an Earth brother. I love mobile, athletic kids, and I like the Spread. I do find him to be a winsome kid. I would greatly prefer to endorse him. Nevertheless, he is a 1 year wonder. As Mike Mayock is fond of saying: NFL Draft history has a landfill worth of 1 year wonder picks who went bust. This is a very risky kid. He is one of the riskiest picks in the entire draft, and that can be demonstrated with stone-cold actuarial statistics.

You pick him at your risk.

I want to state big picture one more time so draft mania doesn't sweep us out to sea its powerful riptide. The 2011 draft cannot hold a candle to the 2010 draft. This is strictly a run-of-the-mill, mediocre, average draft class. That may be giving these kids too much credit. 20 years from now, this may be a very forgettable draft class.

As Charlie Casserly has said, he can hardly remember the last time he has seen such a weak class of seniors. I would remind you that is true because we had such an amazing crop of juniors in last year's draft. I warned you that 2011 was going to be weak.

This is why I have a had a very difficult time getting motivated to write about this crop, especially for wider-public arenas such as BleacherReport.com. This just isn't an exciting class. It is difficult to get excited about the 2011 draft crop. It's like looking at bad porn. It just isn't exciting, although you think it should be.

This is why I continue to tell my fellow Ram-fans that the greatest good that could ever come out of this draft is a top-flight wide receiver. Even if we give up a sizable chunk of our draft to get A.J. Green or Julio Jones, it will be well worth the cost, and the best use of our ammo.

The only three guys who excite me are Von Miller, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green. All three of these guys are top-prospects, no matter what the year. They would have been high picks last year. They will be this year.

The rest of these first round guys are over-bought, over-priced, high risk, potential busts.

Interesting news about our top two receivers in the 2011 draft

So, on today's Path to the Draft, Mike Mayock gave us a very interesting piece about B.J. Green and Julio Jones. You can see it here.

The upshot it this: The stocks are fluctuating, as draft stocks are wont to do. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that Julio Jones may fit the needs of both the Bengals and Browns better than B.J. Green. This according to the theory that you need big, physical receivers if you want to run the West Coast Offensive with authority.

Incidentally, both Ohio teams will be running the WCO this season. As we all know, Mike Holmgren hired Pat Shurmur explicitly for this purpose. Jay Gruden, brother of Jon Gruden, is the new offensive coordinator of the Bengals. Like his brother, he is a major advocate of the WCO.

To paraphrase Mike Mayock: B.J. Green is the more gifted natural receiver and play maker, but if the draft were held today, Julio Jones would go first.

Right now, the Bengals are prominently displaying just two young Wide Receivers on the front page of their website. Those would be Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin; the two biggest and most physical receivers in the 2011 draft.

President Holmgren is being much more careful not to telegraph his punch in any obvious position on the Browns' website. I think he is the smarter guy.

So what does this mean to Ram-fans everywhere? A flip-flop of receiver positions is no tragedy. Rather, it is an opportunity. It will be less expensive to move up and catch our falling star now. As you know, I'm pretty sweet on Green. I think we need to go Green. I believe he will have the much sweeter chemistry with Sam Bradford.

Mind you, I will still be happy if we somehow manage to kidnap Julio Jones, but I still think B.J. is a bigger game-changer, play-maker. I think he can turn the tide of battle when the breaks are beating our boys.

Time to get serious about the draft

Intro

I’ve had a lot of things on plate lately, metaphorically, but not literally. This busy-state has kept me from writing about the NFL Draft as much as I would normally. The inspiration to write hasn’t been stimulated much by the talent-level in this draft.

Let me level with you folks out there: 2011 cannot compare to 2010. This draft class is way below the draft class of 2010. 2010 was one of those rare moments when a full crop of great players arrived. Many experts described 2010 as the best draft year since the legendary class of 1983. 2011 is nothing special. The crop of 2011 is basically a run-of-the-mill bunch. Even that statement might give these guys too much credit.

Still, good-crop, bad-crop, or mediocre crop, it’s time to get serious about this draft. Let me begin my series with a quick summary of my thoughts about

My General Conclusions about the 2011 Draft

1. The class of 2011 is nowhere near as good as the crop of 2010.

2. This is particularly bad Quarterback class. None of these guys are strong enough to carry the weight of Sam Bradford’s jockstrap. I think the top two ranked QB in 2011 would have been a 2^nd rounders in 2010. These guys are destined to become over-bought, over-priced disappointments. That’s the best-case scenario. Of all these guys, the only kid I really like is Jake Locker. I especially like the fact that I can have him in the 2^nd round. He’s a good bargain at that price.

3. This is an atrocious year for offensive linemen. Only Mike Pouncey is worthy of being selected in the first round. Several more will probably be taken in the 1^st round due scarcity-inflation, but this is not a good thing. Many of these guys will become over-bought, over-priced disappointments. Just remember Mike Mayock’s key term: heavy-legged waist-benders with little upper-body strength. They’re generally on the skinny side also. If you want a good offensive lineman, you better get Mike Pouncey in the 1^st round. Mike could be an alternative for the Rams at the #14 slot.

4. This is a very bad year for tight ends. Not a single one is expected to go in the 1^st round. We’ll see if any happen to go in the 2^nd round. If I was going to take one, it might be Jordan Cameron (not to be confused with Cameron Jordan of Cal Berkeley) of the USC Trojans later on in the 4^th or 5^th round.

5. This is a bad year for running backs. I see only one young man in this draft (Mark Ingram) who should have a career of significance in the NFL. I don’t see many others who will become factors in the NFL. None of these guys are home-run hitters or game changers like C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, or even (my favorite) Dexter McCluster. A little schmoe named Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State) is the most elusive guy in this class, but I see him as a situational specialist. Kendall might be a 3^rd rounder.

6. This is a pretty good year for Wide Receivers, and better than 2010. This is one of the few bright spots in the class of 2011. There could be two or three deadly receivers: B.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Leonard Hankerson. Both B.J. Green and Julio Jones compare well with Dez Bryant of the 2010 draft. They are better than Demaryius Thomas. This is a very good year to be in need of a Receiver.

7. This is a good year for defensive linemen. It’s a better year for defensive ends than defensive tackles. By no means is this class as good as last year’s crop. None of these guys are as good as Gerald McCoy. None of them are strong enough to carry the weight of Ndamukong Suh’s jockstrap. Still, if you need some defensive line help, you should be able to find some this year.

8. The Linebackers in this crop are pretty good. Last year, Rolando McClain (Raiders) was the first LB off the board followed by Sean Weatherspoon (Falcons). I think it is safe to say both of those guys were disappointing. I think Von Miller is far better than either of these two. I would be willing to argue that my fellow Bruin Akeem Ayers is better also. Akeem Ayers just might be an alternative for the Rams at #14.

9. The corners in this year’s crop are better than last year’s, but this is mostly because of Patrick Peterson, and the weakness of last year’s crop. I’m not too sweet on this crop. If you need one, you better go up top and get the big-dog.

10. The safeties in this year’s crop are not very close to those of 2010. Eric Berry and Earl Thomas were both vastly superior to this year’s crop. Still, I like Rahim Moore of UCLA and DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson in 2^nd round of this draft. In the 2^nd round, I think they can both deliver good value.

11. Marcell Dareus is probably the best over-all athlete in this draft. After him, the prospects at DT fall-off rapidly. Nick Fairley is the second coming of Ohio State’s Dan “Big Daddy” Wilkinson. Big Daddy was a Bengal bust back in 1994.

12. Von Miller & Patrick Peterson are in a dead-heat for the 2^nd overall athlete sweepstakes. I am going to lean towards Von Miller because my Rams are need of a Linebacker, and I like what I see. Still, there is very little chance my team might get a crack at Von Miller, even if they trade up.

13. B.J. Green is the #4 guy on my board. It gets very messy after that.

Summary for Ram fans

I see three potential players the Rams might look at for the #14 pick:

1. Julio Jones, WR Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida Gators
3. Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA Bruins

In the second round, I think we are looking for Leonard Hankerson (WR Miami Hurricanes) or Rahim Moore (FS UCLA Bruins)

I don't believe in the Viking theory

In this blog I will issue my 3rd or 4th annual official-rejection slip regarding the Viking theory. I have lost official count. I expect to be right for the 3rd or 4th consecutive year. I have been right these past several years.

Folks, it's all Mike Mayock's fault. Dr. Mike is my official draft guru, pissed though I was with him in this year of 2010, and he is usually the most reliable guy in the league. He has earned a lot of clout for that reason. It is largely due to his voice that we (I mean you) think that the Vikings are a legit Super Bowl contender.

Nope, they're a pretender to the crown.

Mike Mayock is a guy with a couple of biases. We have to compensate for those biases if we are to find the truth of the matter. Dr. Mike is from Philly, and he is an Eagle fan. They always get an inflated score from Dr. Mike. Dr. Mike also covers the Vikings during pre-season. The Vikings always get an inflated score, especially on the talent card.

The Viking tribe suffers from a very strange version of myopia, if you ask me. Let me tell you about it.

About a month ago, when I was returning to Los Angeles from Fresno after the 4th of July, I stopped by Ikea. I just happened to be wearing Jared Allen's jersey on that day. As I checked out with a few new things for the Barbecue, a guy approached me asking with great anxiety regarding whether Favre would return or not.

Of course, I'm not actually a Viking fan, but this guy was. He thought he had found a kindred spirit. This is a common problem for me. It happens often.

It's difficult for me to explain that I am a non-aligned fan of the sport called football. It's hard for me to explain to a guy I just met out of the blue that I have 53 NFL jerseys in my collection, and I wear a different one every day. I have found it is usually easier to have a brief conversation with the dude about whatever team I happen to be wearing on the given day.

I answered him directly "I think it's a given that Favre is going to be back."

He continued "I sure hope so! The Vikings should have won the Super Bowl! The Vikings are so much better than the Saints! They turned it over 7 times, and the Saints still only managed to win it in overtime by a field goal!"

My face screwed up like I had bit into a sour pickle. I nodded my head and we parted ways. I am sure this Viking fan believed I was feeling the pain of defeat when he saw the expression on my face. On the contrary, I was feeling pain of an absolutely preposterous and bass-ackward argument. His argument would have infuriated my high school logic teacher to no end.

Let me get this straight: Adrian Peterson put the ball on the carpet 5 times and Favre threw 2 more interceptions in his illustrious career, ergo the Vikings are dramatically better than the Saints???? Bullshit! Bull fucking shit! NOW HERE THIS: FUCK THAT SHIT! If that isn't the stupidest argument I've ever heard it is damn close to #1.

The only reason the Vikings stayed in the game was because Sean Payton called the most curiously conservative game I have ever seen him orchistrate. He kept shutting it down during the game, believing that the Vikings were self-destructing. He believed the Vikings were punching his ticket to the big-dance. Every time the Vikings would tie it, Payton would unleash hell on them again, and the Saints would take the lead back.

The Saints were a heck of a lot better than Viks. It wasn't as close as it looked.

Mike Mayock says that the Vikings are loaded. I categorically reject that statement. The receiver corp is impressive, and the defensive line is impressive. I don't see a whole lot there besides that. The defensive backfield is dog-shit. The offensive line is mediocre to poor, blocking well for the run, and modestly for the pass. The linebacking corp is average to better than average.

Favre is just a brilliant damn QB when he isn't throwing those big INTs to terminate NFC championship games. Adrian Peterson is a breakaway threat when he isn't putting the ball on the carpet 5 times in the NFC Championship game. You give those two guys way too much damn credit. This is the most over-rated backfield in 20 or 30 years. Truth be told, both of these gifted athletes have absolute spoilers, nasty ruinations, and critical flaws.

For these reasons I do not believe in the Viking theory. I do not believe they are a serious contender. I do not believe they are serious threat in the NFC. I do not believe they are a threat to win the Super Bowl this season.

Now flukes do happen. The Federal DEA investigation could crush the Saints' title defense. The Falcons may unexpectedly collapse. The Cowboys may suffer an epidemic of injuries. No surprise team may emerge in the NFC. The Packers may not be what we think they are. Favre's ankle may be just fine.

If the constellations all lineup in this fluky manner, the Vikings might windup hosting the 49ers for the NFC Championship. This would give them an unexpected, moderately unobstructed run to the Super Bowl.

I seriously doubt this will happen. It is more likely that Favre's ankle will not be okay, and the Vikings will suffer an unexpected collapse in 2010.

The NFL Network's big chill

A friend of a friend commented that I rarely mention the NFL Network these days, and wondered if my interests had changed. He said he could tell I am watching more FoodNetwork than NFL Network these days. He wondered if this was a permanent change in interests or if I would blog about the NFL Network again during the regular season.

Well... The perception is a bit off, but there are many grains of truth there. There is also an interesting blog post found in this conversation.

You probably have noted that there are more ESPN references lately than NFL Network references. I am watching more NFL Live than NFL Total Access these days. Is that just because it is the off season?

No. Let me tell you about it.

There was a cleavage between me and the NFL Network during the 2010 draft campaign. I bet you know what caused it, too! Or do ya?

During the run up to the 2010 NFL Draft, I realized several very unhappy truths about the NFL Network. Specifically, I realized that this is the official propaganda mouth piece of the 32 front-offices and also HQ. Notice I did not use the term teams. I used the term front-offices. There is a big distinction there which I am well aware of. I chose my terms carefully and with reason. I mean to say exactly what I wrote.

Perhaps I am just a slow and dull old boy, but I had formerly considered sources such as Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly reliable and brutally honest. I knew some guys on the network were glad-handlers; Steve Marucci comes to mind. However, to the very last man, I watched each one of these guys change their tune regarding Sam Bradford and the Devaney-agenda.

When the draft began Charley Casserly was adamant that you never push a guy up the board because he fits a need. He vehemently defended drafting the best athlete regardless of position. He sited case after case showing that the worst busts happen when you reach for a guy because of need. He was opposed by coach Jim Mora Jr. who said that was a management position, and coaches get fired quick because of one or two missing players at key positions of need.

Casserly began the 2010 draft cycle insisting that Gerald McCoy was the #1 pick in the draft. He didn't like Bradford because of his injuries and his background in the Spread-Offense. I saw him do a dramatic about-face during the process. Why? Because Bradford stood on the side-line during the combine with his arms folded? On the strength of just one controlled workout? Was that it?

I have--in pure digital--Mike Mayock declaring that 2010 was a bad QB year. "All the QBs are injured and questionable for one reason or another," he said. I watched him do a dramatic about-face and support Devaney with the bullshit-line "a franchise quarterback trumps all." Early in the process, he said he didn't believe there were any franchise QBs in the 2010 draft. The closest thing to it was Sam Bradford, and he was much more than uncertain about Sam.

Why did Mike Mayock change his mind? Because Bradford stood on the side-line during the combine with his arms folded? On the strength of just one controlled workout? Was that it?

Folks, I could go on. There are many more dramatic examples of dramatic about-faces inside the NFL Network regarding Sam Bradford. Were there a good reasons for this dramatic about-face? Hell no!

There was a very bad reason for this about-face. Billy Devaney informed the NFL Network--off the record--that he was going to take Sam Bradford. He probably gave Adam Schefter this news also. This is why Adam Schefter gave us this news with total conviction, early on, when that seemed like a preposterous story. Of course, they would never admit they knew. This is for the same reason the old WWF would not admit that wrestling was scripted entertainment. This would blow the illusion.

As I have stated several times lately, the NFL Network has a promotional function. This promotional function is the primary function of the NFL Network. This leads us right into the pages of MIT Professor of Linguistics Noam Chomsky's "Manufacturing Consent." We should give some credit to Edward S. Herman also. He co-wrote the book.

"Manufacturing Consent" examines the propaganda model of the media. The thesis is pretty simple: Mass media supports large corporate and governmental interests. They have too. This is the side their bread is buttered on. This apparatus is used to form a soft-grip control on public opinion. It is a subtle, non-violent, means of evangelism and persuasion used to get people on board with the decisions big bosses are making at higher levels. Of course, this is better than the violent means of coercion used by totalitarian societies, but it is so unfortunate that weak minded fools repeat anything they hear through "authoritative news sources".

Everything Chomsky said in this book and movie applies triple-force to the NFL Network. I think the NFL Network was founded after Paul Tagliabue saw "Manufacturing Consent" and cried-out in joy "Eureka!"

I noted all of the elements of this propaganda model operating on the NFL Network during the 2010 draft campaign. These techniques and tactics were employed to get Rams fans on-board with Devaney's decision to draft a quarterback, and more precisely, Sam Bradford. The NFL Network is still using Chomsky-specific propaganda to do post-sale evangelism on Sam Bradford. Note Steve Wyche's recent use on the Bandwagon technique in fabulous fiction regarding Sam Bradford.

This is no conspiracy theory. The NFL Network is wholly-owned subsidiary of the NFL. It is the NFL. They do the NFL's bidding. This is all out in the open folks. This is no conspiracy. From it's very inception, the NFL Network was designed to be an NFL controlled source of information. You know that.

I know beyond any shadow of a doubt that Devaney knew he was going to make an unpopular and controversial pick when decided he was going to select Sam Bradford. I know that he knew many dedicated fan-forces were arrayed against this decision, and for differing reasons. I know he felt he needed help in persuading these fans to get on his bandwagon. I am certain he went to the NFL Network, gave them off-the-record information (which makes them look like genius analysts on draft day) and (in return) asked for their help in evangelizing Ram-fans.

This is why Mayock changed his tune. This is why Casserly changed his tune. This is why Lombardi said things like "He's drafted linemen in each of the past three years; he can't go back into that locker room and say 'I've drafted another lineman'". This is why you had everyone chanting the pious cant "the Rams need a a QB to give the fans and the team hope for the future."

Am I saying that the NFL Network is the official mouth-piece of the 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying it is part of their official function to promote the agenda of the 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying that Devaney runs one of those 32 NFL front-offices? Yep. Am I saying a gentileman's agreement was reached? Yep. Am I saying that there was an official directive inside the building to soft-pedal Devaney's agenda? Yep. Am I saying out that they carried out that agenda, among many others? Am I saying that they are currently engaging in post-sales evangelism? Yep.

Right now just about all of the star analysts on the NFL Network are congratulating Devaney on making the right move. We will see if they saying the same thing in 5 years when we may well have destroyed a #1 draft pick kid who we were grotesquely unprepared to receive in camp.

About Sam Bradford, the young man, not the draft decision

So they had just a bit of footage from the Rams' OTAs last night on NFL Total Access. The focus was on the question "Why is Sam working out with the 2nd string right now?"

It was false drama by the media. All of us know why. The team is trying to pretend they aren't going to throw him head first into the shark tank immediately... sink or swim. We all know the truth is a little bit different. Jason La Canfora said as much, but he put a tad bit of spin on it, saying something along the lines of:

"They're taking it one step at a time. They want him to feel that he's earning it. Everyone expects him to be the starter by the time the games start counting. They describe his workouts as 'awesome.'"

Setting aside all my disputes with Devaney's judgement and draft strategy, which are numerous, what do I think of Sam Bradford, the player, the guy in a Ram helmet, right now?

He looks pretty good in a Ram uniform. He's not the skinny as a rail kid he was a few years ago during the BCS championship game. His throwing motion looks a lot faster as well. He always had a nice fluid throwing motion, reminiscent of Jim Plunkett at his best, but I don't recall his motion being quite this snappy before. Maybe he's self consciously trying to decrease his release time. Maybe his release has gotten faster as a result of the muscle weight and strength increase. I don't know.

We all know a quick release is good. Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre had the three fastest releases I've ever seen in my life. Some say Elway was the fastest. Some say Marino was the fastest. It doesn't really matter now. They are both in the Hall of Fame, and they are both legendary figures of football folklore.

I would really appreciate it if our friends at the NFL Network or ESPN would put the super-high-speed cameras on his motion, and get out the laser speedometers, and clock Sam's throwing motion. Somebody probably already did that during the draft, but I did not see any results published. Also, I would like to see how Sam's new and faster release compares to Elway, Favre and Marino's.

Maybe I am a stupid homer, but it looks to me like his release time just might be down there in the lower milisecond regions, where the aforementioned great-ones dwell.

If so, this bodes extremely well for my Rams. I know for a fact that a slow-release doesn't kill you in the NFL. Many HOF QBs had slower releases. However, I know for a fact that a quick release does help. It's a positive. It's just like having quick feet. It's a good talent to have, if you've got it. Not absolutely mandatory, but it is to your advantage.

I think it has more to do with a QB's instant reaction to a situation than surprising defensive backs. I still don't believe NFL Corners can read the QB's throwing motion and react as quickly as they say they can. One thing we have to remember: defenders are always full of bravado and bullshit. This is true of Nose Tackles also. Defenders claim they can do all sorts of things they cannot do. You might call it "talking shit" but it's more like "believing shit."

Each time I see the kid on film, and I've only seen about 5 minutes of practice film, he looks very good. He looks better than most QBs I've seen practicing in these OTAs. Maybe it's just because he's deadly serious, and others are taking it easy. If so, there's nothing wrong with that picture. Can't complain about that.

Honestly, we can't tell until the regular season strikes, but so far he looks good. You know I am hoping and praying I am wrong about his career. Nobody will be happier than I will be if I turn out to be wrong here. The problem is the percentages are not good.

Everybody else seems extremely bullish about Sam Bradford. Just two days ago, I watched a couple of old episodes of Path to the Draft and Draft Recap. They said some terribly flattering things about Sam. Our two GMs, Michael Lombardy and Charlie Casserly, were very high on Bradford.

Casserly, in particular, said remarkable things. Just what did he say?

• "Bradford is one of the best QB prospects I have scouted in the past 10 years"
• "If I was a Ram fan I wouldn't question this selection. I would take heart and be excited about this choice. You're getting a great quarterback."
• "Bradford is the best player in this draft. He is the number one athlete, and he is going to be the #1 pick by the Rams."

When scientifically comparing the QB prospects from 2009, 2010, and 2011, several of the commentators on draft-recap believed Bradford is the best of the breed. This was particularly clear in Casserly's case. He favored Bradford's accuracy over Stafford's raw arm strength. He favored both over Jake Locker, who he seems to view as non-No.1 absolute. Mike Mayock seems to favor Stafford based on his 'generational arm', or arm strength alone.

[The logic of Mike Mayock's argument is not particularly sound. You never favor a dude on arm strength alone. If so, JaMarcus Russell would actually be a quarterback, and not an unemployed civilian. I should also caution you with the fact that Cassely doesn't think Tebow is a natural passer who can read coverage. That is bizarre notion, as Tebow is the NCAA's most efficient passer ever, even over our own Sam Bradford.]

All of these glorious statements can be challenged by a skeptic. Follow some of these statements to their logical implications. If any of this is true, do you know what it means? It means that Bradford ranks along side of guys like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, etc." Do you think that's right? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet.

We should caution with the following fact: Casserly also said Ben Roethlisberger had to be preferred over Sam Bradford. This was based on concrete achievement. Don't forget the Steelers were prepared to trade Roethlisberger and sweeteners for our Bradford. That's based on disgrace.

If these statements are true, Bradford is a better athlete than Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Do you believe that is true? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet. I find that difficult to believe. Let's remember, Mike Mayock kicked off the draft season by saying that this was a bad QB year, and two men stood head and shoulders above the field: Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Somehow he changed his tune with the "Franchise Quarterback trumps alls" motif.

If just some of these statements are mostly true, this would strongly imply that my Rams just got away with the best QB prospect in the past 3 years. We'll also have a better one than will be available next season. He'll also be 1 year ahead of Jake Locker in experience during 2011.

One fact cannot be disputed: We are not well setup to receive a young man who has had injury problems at the quarterback position.

1. We had a bad line that gave up 44 sacks last season
2. We jettisoned two bad starters in Icognito and Barron. This is good, but...
3. We are rejiggering the line, switching a Right Tackle Sophomore to left, and a freshman Left Tackle to Right.
4. We're plugin in our reserve tackle Adam Goldberg at right guard.
5. We don't have terrific receiver threats. They are better than some think, but worse than the homers would have you believe.
6. Steven Jackson is coming off back surgery. The presumed security blanket may not be there.
7. Steven Jackson has no competent backup.
8. We do not have a running back committee, as we should have.
9. This cannot be remedied by signing Michael Westbrook, presuming he will sign with us, which is a big "IF".
10. We're running the WCO, which is an outdated and outmoded offense; a scheme that has been systematically defeated by the Belichick Box.
11. We've got Pat Shurmer as our OC... Nuff'said.
12. Whatever else you want to say about it, durability is the paramount issue. You can have fantastic size, strength, speed, lightning fast release, laser-guided accuracy, a brilliant mind, etc. If your body breaks down, your career goes up in smoke. My worst fear is that Sam lacks the physical durability necessary to make all of his other gifts work for him in the NFL.

All of these are great obstacles Sam is going to have to overcome. I hope he does so, for all our sakes.

I hope this is the turn of the tide. I hope we have a deadly franchise QB. I hope we have the next QB everybody will be raving about. I hope he triggers the establishment of a new dynasty and 10 years of glorious winning. I hope he's the QB every wide receiver wants to play for, just as Kurt Warner was in the early stages of this decade.

There is a lot to love about this kid. I just hope we are not responsible for destroying this young man with bad draft decisions, bad coaching, and bad personnel misses. One of the things that pisses me off is that Devaney took this kid, and then passed on coaches and tools that would make him successful. That has to change really damn quick.

Oh, so now Florio is taking a stab at McShay?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/31/todd-mcshay-backlash-builds/

In one of the most bluntly crafted hit-pieces written since I myself last took up the keyboard, Mike Florio just took a wild stab at Todd McShay. His points are as follows:

1. McShay mislead Jevan Snead into entering the draft
2. McShay is bad, Kiper is good.
3. McShay is bad because he has no connections, and he doesn't like Clausen
4. Kiper is good because he works hard, and does like Clausen
5. The best amateur draftnik is Mike Mayock

HAHAHAHhaahahahaha! Oh bouy! Where or where do I begin deconstructing this pile of shit??? So many choices, so little time. This has to be one of the most topsy-turvy, upside down, ass-backwards, perversions I've read in years! Almost every aspect of this hit piece is entirely wrong, but then again, so too are the McNabb rumors and the Tebow rumors. Fabrications, one and all.

For the record, allow me to state the following:

1. Since the day Jevan Snead entered the draft, persistent reports have held that Snead had trouble with his grades. College was not his strong suit. Some reports stated Snead was close to loosing his athletic eligibility due to academic probation. I seem to recall reading this on Mel Kiper's ESPN blog, as well as other places.
2. Although I am not hyper about either of these two 'scouts', McShay is much better and Kiper Jr is a lot worse. All you have to do to prove this case is go through Kiper Jr.'s words on the numerous (39) all-out-bust QBs in the 1st around of the draft over the past 30 years. There's your proof. McShay doesn't have a deep track record, but he is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
3. The greatest single feather in McShay's cap is that he is not going along with the Jimmy Clausen rubbish. If I object to his ratings of Clausen, I object to the fact that he has not gone far enough in critiquing this kid. Everyone stops with the intangibles. You should go further than that. I don't believe the kid has the level of talent everyone says he does. The Pro-System he comes from did little to help Brady Quinn, a more athletic QB candidate, to succeed in this league. Clausen is an obvious bust risk, but no one speaks openly about his risk factors. Clausen is vastly more risky than McShay leads one to believe.
4. Kiper is good because he works hard and likes Clausen??? NO, NO,NO, NO! Well, I respect the work, but he is absolutely and completely wrong about Clausen. Clausen is a true junior from an mediocre program. If he is drafted in the 1st round, the actuarial tables predict he has a 90% chance of going bust. That is way to high a risk for me. Florio could not be more wrong. He is just as wrong and wrong can be here. Florio must have come from Notre Dame or something. I understand he is an Italian Lawyer from West Virginia and life long fan of the Vikings. They don't say where he got his degree, though.
5. Mike Mayock is no amateur. Mike Mayock is the draft scout for NFL Films. He is the guy who does most of the scouting for the NFL Network. Calling Mike Mayock an amateur draftnik is like calling Chief Justice John Roberts an amateur lawnik. Jesus is that bogus! Furthermore, if Florio ever watched the NFL Network, he would know that Mayock says many of the same things McShay says about Clausen. He's a little less blunt about it, but he raises very similar concerns. Like McShay, Mayock doesn't go far enough in stating the risks associated with Clausen's profile.

We should note in passing that an unnamed source is attributed with all of these comments, but I don't believe that for a moment. Florio crafted this piece ex-nillo, as has done in so many other cases.

One final point, I want it to be known that I am a fan of Jevan Snead. I think he has a lot more athletic ability than Clausen does. Somebody is going to get a real steal in this kid. I saw a couple of his better games against Tennessee and LSU, and I was impressed. That blood-bath in the Cotton Bowl aught to be called The Body Bag Game II. I don't hold that one against him, sometimes all you can do is win, and he did.

It should be noted that Snead took one of the most vicious hits in College Football history in that Cotton Bowl game. Not only did he come back in a few minutes and play again, he actually played better after the hit! He'll never have to prove his manhood in any other way.

The one question about Jevan, and its a big one, is his intellect. Does he have the brain of an NFL QB? Given the complexity and deception of NFL defensive schemes these day, every NFL Quarterback has to be pretty damn smart. You also have to be studious, disciplined and diligent in your mental preparation. This preparation does resemble academic work, but the subject is a lot more fun. I hold out the possibility that Snead's mental effort will rise the moment he is able to work exclusively with the subject he loves: Football.

The remarkable foolishness of the Philly fans

Donovan McNabb rumors were all the rage last night on ESPN & the NFL Network. A full consideration of these rumors will lead you to a very humorous new understanding semi-spoiled, semi-desperate, and not too technically astute football fans. Before continuing on with the facts let me qualify my last statement:

• The Eagle fans are semi-spoiled because the Eagles have been consistent winners in one of the toughest divisions in football for the past 9 seasons. During this time, they gone to the NFC title game 5 times, and to the Super Bowl once.
• The Eagle fans are semi-desperate because they do not believe these quality years will continue for much longer before the wheels fall off the bus. They maintain that Donovan McNabb is the absolute limiting factor holding this team back. They are anxious to transition now, and take a shot at the Super Bowl now, before the quality years end.
• The Eagle fans are not particularly astute. They don't seem to realize that Andy Reid managed a pretty remarkable makeover of the Eagle offense during the past two drafts. The defense needs some work in this draft, but the Eagles are well set for some time to come. I do not see their quality years ending soon... unless they do something stupid.
• If the Eagle fans were a bit more astute, they would realize that the Eagles took a step back in 2009 because of the death of Jim Johnson, and the loss of Dawkins. The defense was the problem in 2009.

So where is the humor in this story? There isn't much if you are Donovan McNabb, however, if you are a marginally disinterested party, this story is a funny tale of irrationality and incoherence mixed with sports passion. Consider the logic of the following set of propositions:

1. The Eagle fans are desperate to unload McNabb
2. Yet they are desperate to get something for him before they 'waste' another year
3. They also do not want to allow him to walk away without any compensation for the team
4. They have embraced the fabricated rumor that the Rams will deal them the #33 pick and O.J. Otogwe for McNabb.
5. Yet Otogwe is not currently under contract by the Rams and cannot be traded.
6. Since Otogwe is not under contract by the Rams, the Eagles could simply sign him (at a price the Rams won't match) and Otogwe would be an Eagle

Implicit within statements #1 and #2 is the theory that McNabb is an impediment, and he must be disposed of. This would suggest that McNabb is a negative, and yet the Eagles want considerable compensation for him. This is declared in point #3. I find these three propositions contradictory, taken together.

Point #4 is confounded by the actual facts of life. The Rams are not negotiating for McNabb's services, period. This has been confirmed by NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora; not to mention Steve Spagnuolo & Billy Devaney. League sources declare that only the Eagles and Bills have made some overtures the Eagles, and shown some interest. Yet Eagle fans don't seem to care about the ESPN & NFL Network reports exploding their current pet theory. They seem to be enjoying the story they are telling each other so much, that prefer to ignore the factual reports.

Point #5 and #6 add the cherry on top of the whipped cream. Otogwe could be signed by the Eagles for the price of simple contract, so his addition brings no value at all to any trade package. This is assuming that he could be traded at the moment, which he cannot. This major error uncovers the hand of a poor liar, not well versed in NFL subterfuge. In short, this is the work of Mike Florio.

I have to say that I am enjoying the fireworks. I got big belly laughs out of recordings of Eagle fans on Philly's 97.5 FM. Mike Missanelli reminded me of Buddy Hackett in some of his funnier roles. Consider the following video footage of this joker:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d817269e1/Moving-McNabb

What did he say?

1. He thought the trade with the Rams had already been consummated; this according to some of the fans he talked to on the radio. {Joke}
2. Sentiment in Philly is running 75-25 against McNabb; possibly 80-20. Eagle fans are ready to turn the page.
3. When confronted with reports discrediting the Ram trade rumors Missanelli simply says "General Managers have been known to tell some fibs this time of year." He quickly turned his attention to his interpretation of Andy Reid's behavior.
4. When confronted with the extension-veto that McNabb holds, Missanelli quickly denied the existence of the extension-veto, effectively saying "McNabb doesn't have much choice in the situation. I think we can get somebody to take the deal."
5. When asked why a team would even give the Eagles compensation for a player with just one year on his contract, Missanelli first evaded the question and then finally said "Signing McNabb is the other teams problem. You gotta do what you gotta do. We need to move on with Kevin Kobb" He also tried to assert that McNabb would accept an extension in St. Louis because "he has people there", specifically Shurmer and Spagnuolo.

Oh Bouy... Where do you start deconstructing this mess?

You could start with the fact that McNabb can't accept a contract extension with the Rams because they aren't bidding or negotiating... but I won't go there.

First of all, you can immediately understand why Mike Missanelli is not a General Manager in the NFL. He would have no talent for making the deal. What is the art of the deal? Adam Smith summarized it best when he said

"It is not to the charity of the butcher or the baker that we owe our meat and bread, but rather to his regard to his own self interests."

Adam Smith taught us that you interest somebody in an economic transaction by appealing to his/her most base economic interests. You have to find truly interested parties in the market. You have to point out why your item for sale will delight the customer. You have to explain why this transaction would be absolutely fantastic for the buyer. You have to take on all obvious objections and show why there is no negative downside to the transaction, for the buyer, not for you. Did Missanelli do that? Nah, hell nah.

• The whole sales pitch rings of me, me, me. The Eagle fans want what's best for them, and screw the other side of the transaction.
• In working the Ram rumors, the Eagle fans fail to identify a truly interested party.
• By saying "we want to unload him, you take him" you are asking for a favor, you're not interesting a customer in doing a deal.
• All of the Philly fans, including Mike Missanelli, have deprecated this trade deal by deprecating McNabb.
• You will hardly overcome objections, and void negatives by saying something like "signing him is your problem. You gotta do what you've gotta do."

During the whole conversation, Missanelli never once grasped the point that Fran Charles was making: Your deal is next to impossible because McNabb holds defacto veto power. It was zeal for the deal that did it. He's so anxious to move on, he doesn't want to hear any spoilers. To be a GM in the league, not a fan, you need to be an ultra-realist. You need to grapple hard with all possible spoilers and come up with a sound solution.

Mike Missanelli is basically saying "Here is a choke-artist QB with 11 years in the league. You pay him the last year on his current contract, and give us a pick between #20 and #33 for it. If it is #33, we want a sweetener." That's one hell of a lousy sales pitch if you ask me. You can't even sell a Sham Wow or Slap Chop in that style.

It is human to be extremely myopic and selfish. This is one of the humorous moments in this story.

If I step back and look at this scene from 20,000 feet, what do I think?

1. There is some merit in the Eagles fans claims. McNabb has come up small in some big places. His performance against top-end competition in the biggest venues has not been a model of excellence.
2. On the other hand, McNabb hasn't always had play makers around him, and it hasn't always been his fault. The Eagles lost the NFC Championship last time because the Eagle defense could not stop the Cardinals on their clock-killing and game winning drive. There was also a questionable non-call on a pass interference play.
3. McNabb does hold a pocket-veto power in this case. It may not look like it at first glance, but his refusal to sign an extension can spoil and beak any deal.
4. It sucks to be Donovan McNabb. Can you imagine toiling for 12 years (and it will be 12 years before he walks as a free agent), walking out the door unceremoniously as a free agent, holding all the Eagle records, having had a hell of winning record in Philly, and being this poorly regarded for your efforts? Can you imagine retiring after having your body broken in Philly, and being this unappreciated for it. It sucks to be McNabb.

One more point: Just as I was about to hit the Publish Post button, I discovered this little gem.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/26/1391985/mcnabb-trade-eagles-raiders

It would appear that McNabb's agent Fletcher Smith has been given no reason to believe that a trade is immanent. Since any trade would likely require a contract extension, you can bet Fletcher Smith will be on board from the ground floor. I would say that this information should just about finish this inane conversation, but of course you know it will not.

This has more to do with the desire of frustrated Eagles fans than football facts and reality.

Kiper vs. McShay on Clausen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2I24RxRl1g

I just viewed a lovely video on the YouTube. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay compared their latest mock drafts. A major disagreement ensued over Jimmy Clausen. Todd is really coming up in my estimation. Although the situation was quite uncomfortable for both of them, they were willing to disagree sharply on the air.

Like me, McShay seems to believe that Clausen has the highest bust potential in the draft. He focuses on maturity, which is another way of saying he is a true junior, and too young to be in this situation. He also focuses on the fact that Notre Dame has not produced a QB in a very long time. We just had that very same discussion in 2007 over Brady Quinn. The Quinn story just reached a major negative milestone. Teams would be crazy to ignore this outcome.

As always, Kiper continues to propound the notion that Clausen is the most NFL ready QB in the past 5 years. Why? Quinn was drafted 3 years ago with the exact same specifications. Weren't they equally ready? We know how that story turned out.

McShay and Kiper agree that Clausen will probably go in the top 10. What they don't agree on is whether that is justified. Kiper says he should go in the top 10. McShay says he will in the top 10, but he should not. Kiper is an advocate. McShay is not.

How about if we reach for a tie-breaker? Mike Mayock says Clausen is the #2 quarterback prospect, but he doesn't really like the kid. He rates Clausen outside his top 20 prospects for this draft. He too believes that Clausen will probably go high, but he should not. He has not used the dreaded bust word, but he raises many of the same issues that McShay does. So far, Mayock does not seem to think that Clausen will go in the top 10. Neither does Charlie Casserly. You can see his Mock Draft here:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-hq-videos/09000d5d81702380/Casserly-s-mock-draft

I get the impression that Clausen's stock is sagging. Kiper is doing what he can to keep it afloat, but he is ice skating uphill. The tide is going the other way. It is my impression that Mike Holmgren's all-out purgative dump of Brady Quinn has rattled the league. Jamie Dukes (one of my favorite guys) was an exponent of Clausen during the combine. Now he has gone silent. In Jamie's case, I know it was the Quinn-dump that stopped the train. Jamie was astounded that Holmgren saw no value in Brady at all.

Ad meanwhile, both Bradford and Tebow seem to be rising. Bradford doesn't have much headroom to rise before he reaches the top. It looks like he is going to get there. It looks like Tebow has silences the 5th & 6th round talk. It looks like he is going no later than the 3rd, and probably in the second. Colt McCoy keeps trucking along as a steady 2nd round pick.

It will be interesting to see who goes first: Tebow or McCoy. I would suggest Tebow, but you never know.

The Rams will be hosting Colt McCoy soon. If we should deal the #1 and go for a QB in the 2nd, it will likely be Colt McCoy. So far we have showed no interest in Tebow, save for a few web pages.

Tim Tebow 2.0 on NFL Path to the Draft

Well, well, well, sonofabitch in hell... Hehehehehehe! All the jealous losers in the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 are really going to be upset when they view the video of today's episode of Path to the Draft on the NFL's main site.

Mike Mayock, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on Path to the Draft, declared that todays proceedings were a big success for Tebow. He has made strides. His delivery is more compact and efficient. His footwork is much improved. His receivers caught every pass. Mayock conducted a strawpoll of the NFL GMs in attendance, and the consensus is that Tebow helped himself greatly. They believe he has put the conversion talk to rest, and raised his stock as a QB.

Thus spake the official mouthpiece of NFL Films concerning the draft.

For a contrarian view of today's events, you can read Pete Prisco. A senior writer at CBS Sport, Prisco took one of his most audacious stabs at Tebow yet. You can read it here. He makes it clear that he thinks Tebow won't make it in the NFL, and that he should be a 5th rounder. Even he admits that he was contradicted... er... corrected by the lone NFL GM he queried.

Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks believe Tebow has solidified his position as a 2nd round draft pick now. You shouldn't be too surprised. I am not. I've been thinking 2nd for some time now. I thought we might get a real bargain in the 3rd, but alas, the kid showed his metal. In the 2nd, he's still a bargain.

But are the Rams at all interested? There is not one sign that either Devaney or Spagnuolo were in attendance at the University of Florida's ProDay. To the contrary, they were deeply engaged in social events last night in St. Louis and thereabouts. If a Ram scout was present, it was a junior scout. At such an event last night, Devaney declared that there were four candidates who had distinguished themselves over rest of the field. Sam Bradford was the first name he mentioned.

Personally, I am shocked that the Rams high commanders were not present at the UF ProDay. This is dereliction of duty. 10 Gators may go in the first three rounds of the draft. There were a ton of candidates to see there today.

It is looking more and more like the Rams will select Bradford. The Rams have no viable QB under contract. The Eagles are asking too much for Michael Vick. The Rams have made it pretty clear that they have no intention of giving up the #33 pick for Vick's services. There are no other viable veterans who can function behind the Rams offensive line. No, Fraley doesn't change things. Starting a rookie #2 pick behind our line would be worse than starting a veteran.

Yet starting a rookie #1 overall pick, with a $70m contract, is somehow a better notion? One who has a surgically repaired right shoulder? One who is slower afoot than Tebow? I guess you are expecting the sweet motion delivery to work in 1.2 seconds flat on every play. You better be praying that no defensive lineman will take liberties.

I don't know folks... Right now Devaney's thinking eludes me. I have read blurbs where Devaney declares that he expects the Rams' OL, as it is constituted now, to be solid this year. I think he is crazy. Unless these guys simply weren't willing to work for our QBs last year [in which case we should flush them all] I don't see how the miracle will be accomplished.

So how did we get the impression that Tebow does everything wrong?

I just finished up an argument online with naybobs on the subject of Tim Tebow. I was amazed at how overstated the critiques of Tim are. Some came out echoing the sentiments of the notorious Jaguar lineman who said "He can't throw." That was reason #1 and #5 on this swarthy moron's list of reasons why Tebow won't make it in the NFL. The folks on my message board went deep into the atrocities and travesties of his throwing motion and footwork. You see, from a Quarterback's point of view, Tim Tebow does everything wrong. This is why he'll never make it in the NFL.

So they said. Of course, these are all NFL QB coaches with Hall of Famer QBs on their resume. err... you mean you haven't done anything but watch football since High School?

Critics, you gotten down right stupid. The balanced people out there know it. Stop and consider the dramatic exaggerations of fact you are spewing. If it were true what you say, if Tebow does do everything wrong from the viewpoint of a real quarterback, how then do you explain any of the young man's many achievements? If his mechanics were utterly and fatally flawed, he never would have started or played in the first place at the 2 time national champion Florida Gator teams. If he did everything wrong, he would have been converted to another position, he would have ridden the bench, or his scholarship would have been revoked. There is simply no other possibility.

"Oh but the pro game is so different from the college game..."

It's not that different. It is categorically impossible for wretchedly flawed quarterback (who does it all wrong) to become one of the greatest college football players in history. It is not possible for him to prove himself in victory after victory in the ultra-hard SEC. He could never have passed with a career efficiency rating of 176. He could not have won the Heisman. He could not be the 4th ranked QB in this 2010 draft. He could not be the subject of 3rd round considerations around the league. {The 3rd round seems to be the new consensus on the NFL Network.} You would not have men like Brian Billick, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, and Mike Mayock warning you: Do not bet against Tebow in the NFL.

Rich Eisen has hinted strongly in the direction of my last paragraph several times on the NFL Network. The most clear case occurred when he interviewed Tebow at the NFL Combine. Eisen is careful to remain neutral on most political issues in his capacity as moderator on the NFL Network. Yet he has found a way to ask a few damning questions of the Tebow critics. Jamie Dukes has been peppered once or twice. Clearly, Eisen does not understand how a QB so tragically flawed as Tebow can do what Tebow has done.

The solution to the conundrum is simple: The critics vastly overstate their case to the point of error. Tebow is not nearly as mechanically flawed as they say he is, and he is even more athletic than we suspected. Only in the case of Tebow does a score of 22 on the Wonderlic equate to stupid. For Clausen, 23 is not stupid. Have you forgotten that Tebow averaged a 3.66 GPA at Florida? Do you remember that he was an academic all-american also? He does not come off as stupid to me.

Tebows achievements are a fact, not a theory. The analysis and conjectures of his mechanics involve a lot of opinions, and theory. In a philosophy of science class many years ago, I learned a brutal lesson that has stuck with me ever since: You can't trump a fact with a theory. When the facts collide with the theory, the theory dies, not the facts. Right now, people are twisting the facts to fit their theory that Tebow will fail in the NFL. Scientists don't do that. Good scientists twist the theory until it fits the facts. If your theories & analyses regarding Tebow were accurate, the concrete facts would not be possible. Frankly, your exaggerations are so exaggerated that you sound stupid, not just factually incorrect.

Why does any of this disagreement happen then? Why is it that Tebow has become this polarizing figure in scouting realms?

1. Scout CYA: Tebow has such a big name, that nearly every team in the league began this draft season with an interest in him. More than a few (like the Jags) were prepared to spend a 1st rounder on him. Tony Dungy said he would take Tebow ahead of every QB in this 2010 draft. The scouts know that Tebow has some mechanical problems that need work, and they also knew he would need to learn about Pro style offenses. Ergo, they could not stomach the idea of giving him any sort of grade that would get him near the first round. Early cautious statements were not enough to dampen enthusiasm for the kid, so the scouts increased the intensity of their critiques. It's snowballed from there. Remember: No scout wants to be seen as the guy who gives a development project a first round grade. This is why they do CYA.
2. Jealousy: There are a lot of unhappy and jealous people in this world. Being half Latin, I know something about this. Angry jealousy is something that Latino culture excels at. There are people in this world who get pissed off when they hear that you achieved something, or that something good has happened to you. Their first reaction is not to congratulate, but to get miserable and angry. They wish terrible things would happen to you... like knee injuries or concussions. The sports world, in its zero-sum format, is full of this kind of bitterness. Surely, given the huge record of success Tebow has had, there are many bitter and jealous souls out there who wish it was them. The sports media are full of jealous and bitter jocks who wish it could have been them.
3. Profligacy: Colin Cowherd is one of these guys. There are lounge lizards and playboys all over the sports media, and all over the world. I'm talking about dirty, slimy, scummy bastards who want to get in line for one of Tiger's mistresses and talk about it on the radio. We have debauched drug dealers, street hookers, and gang bangers all inside the NFL family. Many are downright belligerent when it comes to religion. They have much to fear if any of the Abraham religions are correct, but Christianity holds a special place in their ire. A guy like Tebow is not well received by these types. Watching Tebow succeed for the next 10-15 years is more than Colin Cowherd can take. They want the nightmare of a Christian witness to end now. Got bad news for you Colin: You got two others coming up in this draft also; including the #1 ranked prospect.

Consider the biases of the source, the next time you hear outrageously overheated and overstated critiques of Tim Tebow.

Mayock makes a nice point

There sure has been a lot of repetitive speculation about Tim Tebow. We keep hearing the same endless loop of the same basic set of speculations.

Mike Mayock has had a couple of mini-meltdowns on this subject, mentioning that there are a ton of other candidates working hard down there on the field, and we are ignoring them. We should respect their hard work, and we just might miss some gems if keep ignoring these kids.

Well done, and well said. I have to say that I am tired of the same endless speculations in the same loop. Those who believe that Tebow will make it, as I do, will not be dissuaded by the nay sayers. Those who believe he is destined to fail will not be convinced otherwise. We should leave it alone until there is some real news to report.

In the meanwhile, let's focus on the kids competing on the field at the combine.

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.