Will Trent Richardson go in the 2nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft?

For reasons I will spell out in a soon-but-future blog entry, I believe Trent Richardson has to be the prohibitive favorite to win the Heisman this year. This is a continuation of the 10-year historical trend which shows that you must be (A) from a very established power-program and (B) play for a nation-championship contender and (C) be the MVP of that program. Trent is the only guy who fits the suit.

Most of the early draft boards show Trent as the #1 running back on the 2012 NFL Draft. Not the #1 pick, mind you, just the best running back. CBS Sports has him graded as the #8 overall pick in the entire draft. We know that there will be many swerves in the road between this point and that, and we know nothing of them. Still, it is a solid bet that TR will retain his top-ranking.

But this leaves open the question: Where and when will Richardson be drafted in 2012? Many great backs including Thurman Thomas have fallen into the 2nd round. Very few these days have been taken anywhere near the top.

With the massive success of undrafted free-agents like Arian Foster and LeGarrette Blount, there is more talk now that ever about how deprecated the running back position is in the NFL Draft. Former GMs like Michael Lombardi have told us many times that the RB is now a commodity position. GMs feel increasingly free to plug-n-play any sort of prospect in the lineup. There is no need to draft an RB in the 1st round or even near it.

With this as a background, consider the rumor I heard on XM radio yesterday evening: Unknown experts I am hardly familiar with stated (for all the reasons I just spelled out) their conviction that Trent Williams will go in the 2nd round of the 2012 Draft. Quote: "He may be pick 33, but he won't go before 33."

Wow... shocking... believe me, I know. Consider this: Trent's better predecessor narrowly avoided the 2nd round in this past 2011 draft. Further, 2011 gave us a very weak draft. Even so, Mark Ingram was selected just 4 picks away from the bottom of the 1st round. 2012 will be better year. If we put both of Richardson and Ingram on the same board together, I would select Ingram first.

If all this is true, it is plausible that Trent Williams will fall into the 2nd round. I had not considered this, but it is rational and plausible. Shocking none the less, I know.

I thought about the implications all night last night. If the chips do happen to fall as expected, the Rams should hold the #34 pick. We should have exercised the #2 pick on Justin Blackmon, just as CBS Sports and yours truly project. Think of the marvelous good luck we would have if Trent Williams just happens to be on the board at pick #34?

Do we snatch him with pick #34? Unless everybody in the building is on drugs, the answer is certainly yes! You know and I know that Steve Jackson is ever increasingly worn down. We have not gotten a full 16 game season out of him at anytime. Whether we deal him to a contender for his benefit is a question of internal politics in the big front office transition we face in 2012. Whatever happens, we would be stupid to pass on a potential franchise back who would do wonderful things to weaponize Sam Bradford.

Whilst I feel bad for Trent Williams, I am very excited for my team. The implications of snatching both Justin Blackmon & Trent Richardson in the same draft are fairly staggering. Provided our 3rd Rounder is a good choice, our offense could go from disgustingly weak to reasonably loaded in short measure. If we retain Bradon Lloyd, we could be ready for war in 2012.

Ah-ha, so Charlie's wife is a Taurus, aye?

So, just as Charlie Casserly gave us his swan song for this draft season, he dropped this nugget of information: Mrs. Casserly's birthday is tomorrow. Of course you know what this means, don't you? She's a Taurus. This seems to confirm a suspicion I've had about Charlie for a long time: He's a Virgo.

I want to make it clear that I don't know this for certain. You can't find Charlie's birthday anywhere on the Internet. Believe me, I've tried. He's a private guy. He keeps personal information personal. That's a hallmark of the Virgo clan, especially in past generations. These days? Well...

The keen observation skills, the pointed criticisms (which are often correct), straight answers without diplomatic spin, shrewed strategy, the willingness to disregard peer pressure (such as the Reggie Bush case), all point the finger at Virgo. The Taurus wife just might be the final clue.

Naturally, Taurus and Virgo go together like bread and butter. These two Earth signs often select each other, and they do just fine together. I will never know what these sensuous creatures see in us brainiacs, but thank God they see something. We're pretty damn lucky to have this option open to us.

A Taurus woman is a pretty damn good 1st round draft pick. I just might go that route myself, Charlie.

So quarterbacks are good if they are drafted in the first round?

Intro

You know how much I love the NFL Network. These guys are my evening house guests every night. Unfortunately, I am going to have to take exception to one big logical fallacy I have heard repeatedly in recent days. This fallacy is posed as a question and it goes a little bit like this:

“If the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are so bad, why are so many of them going to be drafted in the first round?”

The answers are incredibly obvious, but let’s do a bit of reductio ad absurdum just for fun. You know I just loved that reductio ad absurdum to death. This is the force that made my UCLA degree worth more than $0.25 thimble full of coffee. It’s more fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

Implicit within the NFL Network’s argument are the following key points:

• A player must be good to be taken in the first round.
• Conversely, if a player is taken in the first round, he must be good.
• If a bunch of teams are considering a QB in the first round, they must be impressed by the good quality of this year’s crop.
• If a bunch of QBs go in the first round, it must be a good QB year.

Fallacious! Fallacious! Fallacious! This is bogus false reasoning, and completely erroneous also. Fallacious reasoning doesn’t always guarantee a false conclusion; it just means your logic is bad. In this case, the logic is bad and the conclusion is absolutely false. What is the real story?

Rebuttal

Rather than simply stating the obvious let’s do this catechistically. I’ll phrase my answers as questions.

1. If Andrew Luck had come out of Stanford this year, who would be the #1 QB in the 2011 draft?
2. How many teams need a QB this year?
3. If we had had a normal free agency/trade period would all of these teams be in need of QB as we approach the draft?
4. If free agent QBs such as Mark Bulger had flown free, would the Cardinals be looking for a QB right now?
5. If QBs such as Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb were on the trading block, would the Vikings and 49ers be looking for a QB right now?
6. If Vince Young had been released, would QB demand in this draft be absolutely unchanged?
7. If Carson Palmer (whose Bengal jersey I am wearing right now) had not abruptly pulled up stakes and retired, do you think the Bengals would use the #4 pick for QB… if they get a shot at it?
8. There are several brand-new first year coaches who have no quarterback to speak of. Several are in near-rebuilding situations. Jim Harbaugh, Leslie Frazier, Mike Munchak and Huge Jackson are in this situation. {Incidentally, the Raiders need a QB, and they don’t want to admit it.} Would QB demand be unchanged if you didn’t have new coaches, hoping for a good start?
9. Do you think the lockout and lack of free agency has had zero impact on club plans in the 2011 draft?

The Solution Set

Folks we live in a time of remarkable NFL crisis. About 10-12 teams need a QB. There is a chronic and serious quarterback shortage in the land. The handful of available (and competent) QBs are quite literally locked out of reach of the needy beggars who want them. The desperation is building. It is palpable and it is visceral.

Against all common sense, many teams are considering the chicken switch (reaching for a 2^nd rounder in the 1^st), but this does not prove that this is a good QB class. Taking an undraftable red-light kid in the 1^st round is not indication that this is a good year. The fact that desperate fools are going to hit the chicken switch is no measure of talent.

Brian Baldinger is quite correct when he says that you’re taking a big risk if you wait for the second round. There might not be anything there for you when the time arrives. Certainly, you will curse the football gods if this happens to you. However, just a few years down the road, you may be counting this event as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

My Perspective

I wouldn’t take Ryan Mallett. I wouldn’t take Cam Newton. I would take Blaine Gabbert, but the price is outlandish. If he hits, it will look like genius. I love second round QBs, but I like my 2^nd rounders in the 2^nd round; not the first. I would love to get Christian Ponder in the 2^nd. I would love to get Andy Dalton in the 2^nd. If you give me Dalton in the 3^rd, I’m going to jump through the roof. I am intrigued by Colin Kaepernick, or are we calling him Optimus Prime now?

Charnak and the Wonderlic have scared me regarding my favorite kid Jake Locker. Nevertheless, I would still take the risk on this kid. I think Jake Locker is a lot better than Kyle Boller.

Tragedy in Carolina

Folks, it looks like the Panthers are going to be next team to step up to the plate and make a tragic mistake. They're going to gamble on a quarterback, and the one they are focused on is not a good gamble. I feel bad for my buddy Eric. We've been talking football for four years now, and he is a big Panther fan. Last year, I went through this hell, but it was nothing compared to what he's going through now.

So why am I down on Newton? Setting aside the fact that his daddy is a deliverance pastor who asks for college bribe money, setting aside the cheating on tests at Florida, setting aside the stolen laptop, setting aside the bailout from Florida just ahead of the posse, setting aside the one-year wonder thing at Auburn, setting aside the bailout from Auburn just ahead of the posse, forgetting about both entertainers and icons, dismissing the 21 on the Wonderlic, we still have to deal with the Gruden thing.

Jon Gruden has reprised his lovely role in ESPN's quarterback-shakedown series this year, and Newton was the most recent kid to show up on the show. It did not look good to me folks. Boggies were showing up on my radar. Mike Florio put it succinctly when he said "Newton comes to the NFL with zero knowledge or experience regarding the way that offensive plays are constructed and called"

Folks, it ain't often that Mike Florio and I see eye-to-eye. We do this time. His conclusion is the logical one based on the evidence we saw. I saw a guy who was painfully uncomfortable with the entire situation, and painfully trying to smile his way past the agony of it. That's not good. My hair was on fire during that segment. If you compare and contrast that to the cool/easy competence that Blaine Gabbert showed in Moochie's "Game Changers" chalk-talk, we're talking about a led vs. gold comparison here.

Mel Kiper Jr. recently said that Clausen's appearance on Gruden's show last year damaged his stock, and promoted his slide. Folks, Clausen did a much better job in his Gruden interview than Newton did. My hair wasn't on fire during the Clausen segment. It was during the Newton interview. I think this one ranks at the tops of my "Politically Damaging" pre-draft events.

I'm not saying I'm sold on Gabbert as the top pick in the draft, but if you have determined that QB is your greatest need, you would be suicidal to select Newton ahead of Gabbert. You are certifiable if you make that choice.

This is reflected the most recent series of Scouts Inc Top 32 rankings. Gabbert is headed north. Newton is headed south. Gabbert was ranked at #8, he is now at #5, although his score of 96 has not changed. Newton's score has dropped by single point (from 94 to 93), and he has now slid from #12 to #16. This is Gruden's work for sure. Gabbert is probably rising because he acquitted himself very well on "Game Changers" and Gruden's show.

Nevertheless, the Panthers are signalling that they are preparing to make a tragic mistake. Just about all Mock drafts published recently reflect their signals, showing Newton as the #1 pick. Against all reason, they are preparing to fuck themselves in the ass. It's going to cost them 5 lost years folks.

Highly respected voices on NFL Path to the draft support this move. Guys like Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks defend this move, offering feeble justifications for it. "You have to take a chance on Greatness." "Playing it safe with this pick will just land them right back in this same spot next year."

I know why.

In boxing, it used to be common to use a term called "The Great White Hope". The term reflected White America's desperate craving to see a white guy reclaim the heavy weight championship of Boxing. Each time an untalented white dude would emerge in the heavy weight ranks, he would become the focus of tremendous marketing hype. A guy who was not really a contender became a contender. We knew he didn't have the stuff to defeat Muhammad Ali, Larry Holmes, Mike Tyson or Evander Holyfield, but he got the hype anyway.

The same phenomenon exists in Black America vis-a-vis NFL Quarterbacks. Black America desperately craves a great NFL Quarterback. What do we mean by great? A multi-time Super Bowl champion powering a dynasty, and a QB ranked at the top of the efficiency charts. The last great Black hope was Donovan McNabb, but with Donovan's career in limbo, someone else must fill the void. Newton is the 'born at the right time' guy who seems to have captured Black America's imagination, despite the fact that Michael Vick is much closer to the goal. Guys like Davis and Brooks seem so infatuated with Newton's physical prowess, that they are overlooking clear yellow & red flags. Davis and Brooks never do that under ordinary circumstances. They aren't doing that with Ryan Mallet who also has red-flags.

An unbiased observer can tell that this guy doesn't have what it takes to handle Ali, Holmes, Tyson or Holyfield (read: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even Vick) but he is getting the hype anyway.

I am sure you can capitalize on this hype in the short run. This hype can and will sell a lot of tickets at the box office. If this is the only goal the Panthers have in hand at the moment, they can succeed. For those who want to win? Well... uhhhhmmm... Maybe, maybe not.

Charley Casserly recently said "I could have 25 shots at drafting Cam Newton and I would pass on him 25 times."

Consider this well before you make a mistake.

Hallelujah! I am sure glad my Rams don't need a QB this year. It is just so damn good not to need a QB in the 2011 NFL Draft! I can hardly describe to you how good it is not to need a QB this time around. I tell you, Billy Devaney's 2010 call is looking better and better all the time.

Memo to Billy Devaney: OYE! Let’s get up the board!

Intro

Did you happen to see Charley Casserley’s ranking of the major wide receivers from the past several drafts? The ultimate objective was to rank candidate A.J. Green versus some of the best we have seen in recent years. How did Green do on this list? Check it out:

1. Andre Johnson (2003) Houston Texans
2. Calvin Johnson (2007) Detroit Lions
3. A.J. Green (2011) ???
4. Dez Bryant (2010) Dallas Cowboys
5. Larry Fitzgerald (2004) Arizona Cardinals
6. Michael Crabtree (2009) San Francisco 49ers

Most experts will object to placing Dez Bryant ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. Charlie would defend himself by saying that this is a ranking of prospects as prospects when they came out of college. Even so, most will complain about that ranking. I would.

Some would complain about ranking A.J. Green ahead of Larry Fitzgerald. Would I? Maybe, maybe not. I can see his point here. I am inclined to go along with it.

A few great receivers were shorted here. Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall are the two guys I have in mind here. Naturally, Brandon is one of the most devastating receivers in the league, but he was famously drafted in the 4^th round (119), so folks didn’t think much of him. The more fool they. I don’t like the fact that Julio was left off the list.

Warnings about Julio Jones

I’m not saying I buy into his line of reasoning, but guest member Tom Waddle expressed concerns about whether Julio Jones would be able to separate cleanly from veteran corners in the NFL. Quickness, not speed, is king says Waddle. He believes Julio’s big body is a big target for veteran corners to hit and jam.

My Points

I want to go through a quick list of briefing points for you:

• A.J. Green ranks only behind the two most beastly receivers in the entire league.
• The Cardinals have one of the guys on this list
• The 49ers have one of the guys on the list
• We don’t have anybody on this list.
• We don’t have much of anybody at all
• A.J. ranks higher on the chart than two guys our top competitors have in the NFC West.
• We got the quarterback and they don’t.
• They got the receivers and we don’t.
• If we want a decisive competitive advantage on our opponents we need to put both halves of the equation together.

The Conclusion

I think the conclusion is brutally simple: We gotta get up that board and get A.J.. Would you scupper the rest of the draft to do so? Yep! You damn betcha I would. You would put all your eggs in one basket here? This one time, I would. You would mortgage the franchise to get this kid? Absolutely.

I would let every team in the top 5 know that if they are selling, I am buying. If any of the top 5 teams get cold feet, can’t pull the trigger and want to trade down, I would do the deal in a heart beat.

Understand that this kid’s worth is far greater than giving Sam a great target to throw to. His contribution will be larger than the passes he catches, the yards he racks up, and the touchdowns he scores. When you put a serious threat receiver in front of a deadly accurate passer, you create sleepless nights for enemy DCs.

When you make a DC go without sleep, he usually responds by double-teaming your receiver threat. They will scheme to take A.J. away. That is exactly the way we want it. By getting a receiver who commands a double team on every play, you will free Mark Clayton and Danny Amendola to run around free and move the chains.

We have to get serious about doing this deal.

Congratulations to Sam Bradford, Charlie Casserly's top QB of the past four drafts

So if you were watching Path to the Draft this evening, you know the NFL Network asked Charlie Casserly to rank top prospect Blaine Gabbert versus the other successful 1st round QBs who have come out of the past 3 drafts. Charlie combined all the first rounders from 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 and came up with the following rankings.

1. Sam Bradford, Rams 2010
2. Matt Ryan, Falcons 2008
3. Matt Stafford, Lions 2009
4. Blaine Gabbert, ???? 2011
5. Mark Sanchez, Jets 2009
6. Joe Flacco, Ravens 2008
7. Josh Freeman 2009.

There you have it folks, Charlie says Sam is the best pro-prospect QB of the past four seasons. How about 'dem apples? You can watch the video here.

Why Sam? One word: Accuracy. I had a hunch he was going to say that. Casserly makes no bones about it when he says that throwing accuracy is the most important talent/skill a quarterback can possibly have. As Troy Aikman says, all the size, strength, speed, and toughness in the world won't do a QB any good if he can't put the football where it has to go on any given play. Charlie says Sam is way more accurate that any other guy on that list.

The one quibble I had with his ranking system is the position of Josh Freeman at #7. Although I have not said much about it, I am very bullish on the future of the Bucs. I think they are looking like a fundamentally solid team on offense. They need some additional work on defense, but I think they will make the playoffs and give some people fits in 2011... if there is a 2011.

Certainly, Freeman is the key to their success. Tampa won some very close games last season, not the least of which was their battle with my Rams. That had a hell of a lot to do with the clutch drives and clutch plays Josh Freeman made late in the game.

I am extremely partial to clutch players. If you are a QB with fantastic comeback ability, you will score thousands of extra credit points in my book. The Unitases, Staubachs, Elways, and Roethlisbergers of this world rank at or near the top of my all-time great list because of their incredible clutch play.

Josh Freeman has already shown that he can turn the tide of battle in the clutch moments of the game. Personally, I would put him no lower than 3 on the list.

In Charlie's defense, it seemed that he was ranking these young QBs as prospects. That is, based on their pre-draft scouting reports. I wouldn't be surprised to discover that some of their pro play leaked into his report, though. I will grant you that Josh Freeman surprised many of us with his clutch play. I don't know about you, but I didn't see that in the tea leaves.

A little draft update, 23 days out

Intro

We are just 23 days away from the NFL Draft. Of course, it is Mock-draft season. We see one mock draft after another, from one expert after another. Presently, a number of new trends are emerging. Just what are they?

Cam Newton goes #1 to Carolina

This notion left me shaking my head. A week after we got a scathing character report on Cam, his stock has never been higher, according to the mocks.

If true--and that's a big IF--this only goes to show that we evaluate quarterbacks on exactly the wrong criteria: Athletic ability and upside potential. Are those bad criteria? You damn betcha! We settled all of this in the debate last year, folks. The most import aspect of the QB is his mind, and particularly the intangibles of leadership, ability to handle big pressure, and desire. After this, we can begin to talk about accuracy and toughness.

There have been a hundred great athlete QBs who went bust. Not the least of these are Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell and now... maybe... Vince Young. Your athletic ability says nothing about your prospects as an NFL QB. Sorry folks that's the truth.

But is Cam likely to be the #1 selection? This is a different question. I still think the answer to that is NO. Granted, the Panthers are acting in a provocative manner right now, but I think they're playing a little game of Snooker. I think they are trying to snooker some team into making a deal for that #1 pick. That might be the Bills. That might be the Bengals. That might be the Cardinals. That might be the 49ers. That might be the Redskins.

When the chips are down on draft day, I think the Panthers won't be able to pull the trigger on a new QB. They will either trade the pick or use it for a defensive player like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller. If you take QB #1 in 2011, you are reaching like a moefoe. This class just isn't that good. If they do reach for a QB, it will be Gabbert.

The Bengals go defense?

You should have seen my face last night as Charles Davis and Steve Wyche had the Bengals taking defenders in their mocks. This was all the more puzzling because both Charles Davis & Steve Wyche showed Blaine Gabbert still on the board as they threw defenders at the Bengals. I almost fell out of my zero gravity recliner. That ain't easy to do folks.

Let me just say this... The Bengals want a defender with their #1 pick about as much as you want a peanut butter and motor oil sandwich, seasoned with a little Iodine-131 from Fukushima. Does that sound appetizing to you folks? I didn't think so.

Neither CB nor a DE answer pressing Bengal needs. I do believe that they are taking a QB or WR with that top pick, and then they will go after the complimentary position in the second round. It would be Gabbert in the 1st, and maybe Leonard Hankerson in the 2nd, if the scenario unfolds as Davis & Wyche have it.

Some still say that the Redskins select Julio Jones

Charles Davis is one of many who still think the Redskins will select Julio Jones. I've never bought that theory. I do worry about it sometimes, but it doesn't seem very realistic to me. If anything, this is a pimp-fake. The Skins may be trying to pimp the Rams for some picks.

The learned Redskin insider (featured on Path to the Draft) didn't buy the Jones theory either. I was encouraged by the fact that he sees things as I do. He believes the Redskins are 3-4 defensive team without 3-4 defensive personnel. Incidentally, Mike Lombardi called this one a month ago. Defense is their most devastating problem. It's even worse than their QB need.

WR is a deep, deep 3rd priority for the Redskins. No matter how bad their receiver stock is, a receiver can't help until you settle your QB problems. Furthermore, no matter how bad the QB problem is, Shanahan has a more pressing political problem.

Shanahan began his reign by blowing-up a good and functional 4-3 defense by arbitrary whim. Now the Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league. This terminated Mike's honeymoon in one shot, and created a lot of angry Redskin fans... not to mention one disgruntled Albert Haynesworth. That's $100m worth of disgruntledness there.

The consequences of this bad defensive move cannot be overstated. When Mike Shanahan get's fired in one year's time, people will point to his 3-4 defense verdict as the key mistake that shank his battleship. Notice I say when, not if. That isn't easy for me. I'm a big Shanahan fan and booster.

Shanahan's got a Fukushima Daiichi reactor leaking plutonium on his hands. He has to get this under control and clean up the mess quickly. Perforce, the Redskins go defense with this pick.

Tyron Smith is #1

Tyron Smith took a page from Andre Smith's playbook and did the shirtless Olympics at the USC Pro Day. For Tyron, it was a good move. Critics were worried about his sudden move up from 285 to 307. They were concerned that his new weight might all be flab. Nope, not even close. He looked like a clipping from the pages of the Incredible Hulk comic book. He looked every inch the prototype OT. There are questions about whether he is a right OT or left OT, but this hardly matters. He looks like the prototype, and it is a very poor class of tackles in 2011. Tyron will probably be the first offensive lineman off the board.

We'll see Jerry takes Tyron, or selects a flashy playmaker who puts butts in the seats. The Redskins fans seem terrified that the Cowboys will take their chosen 3-4 defender just to kick sand in their collective face. There may be some hair on that dog. The strategy of denial is a key stratagem in warfare.

Most teams are poorly positioned in this 2011 draft

If I've heard it once now, I've heard it a dozen times: Nobody likes their draft position in the 2011 Draft. Carolina fans are pissed that the team might reach for a QB at #1. Bengal experts are pissed that they might not get a QB at #4. Cardinal experts are pissed that they can't get a QB at #5. Dallas experts are pissed that they might not get a CB or the correct DE at #9. Redskin experts are pissed that they can't a QB at #10 and that Dallas may snatch their DE pick ahead of them. Lion experts are pissed that they might not get Tyron Smith at #13. The Rams are pissed that they might not get a crack at a receiver at #14.

Everybody is poorly positioned in this draft... except the Broncos. Many Bronco fans seem quite happy with the prospect of taking Marcell Dareus at the #2 overall slot. Some think Patrick Peterson would be better, but they also seem to like Darius.

For this reason, I suspect we may see more trade action on draft day than most experts expect. There's just too much discontentment with batting order for folks not to try something here. I think teams may find a way to help each other out. I know it seems unlikely due to the inability to bundle players and picks. It seems even more unlikely due to the inability to mortgage future picks. However, I still suspect that they may find a way to get it done this year.

The Ruling of the judge

As you know, the NFL and NFLPA just exited the courthouse in Minnesota a few hours ago. We expect a ruling in a 'a few' weeks. To me, a few weeks means at least two and less than four. Project 14 to 21 days for a ruling.

I find it intriguing that the NFL's counselor was questioned for nearly 5 hours by the judge. Comparatively little time was spent questioning the NFLPA's counselor. If you are questioned for 5 hours by the judge during a hearing, I presume this means you have a questionable position or case. Think about it folks.

Let's suppose for one moment that the judge rules in favor of the NFLPA. Let's suppose that this occurs sometime in the next 14 to 21 days. This would mean that the lockout could lifted, or partially lifted, anywhere between April 20-27. She could issue the verdict quite literally the day before the draft. That would be amazing.

It has been said that the NFL would need 24-48 hours of prep time to comply with the court order. Free agency could commence within 24-48 hours of the ruling. Suppose the verdict comes down on Friday April 22, 2011. What then?

We would have an amazing free-agency blitz in the immediate prelude to the draft. This has the potential to make for a very exciting, but chaotic and disorganized week of major moves.

Think about it folks.

Quick memo to the NFL Network, Let's talk with Mike Holmgren

So, I had a little idea last night: Let's see Mike Holmgren on NFL Total Access & Path to the Draft in a week or so. Break the piggy bank, send out the private jet, pick him up in Cleveland and bring him to Los Angeles. Put him up in the Hotel Intercontinental, and have the limmo bring him in.

What are his qualifications?

1. He was a USC quarterback and a teammate of O.J. Simpson back in the day
2. He was drafted in the 8th round of the 1970 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals.
3. He coached at BYU where they ran one hell of a passing attack
4. He was the offensive coordinator for the 49ers during their best years.
5. He was once head coach of the Packers, restoring them to them to an elite status with a championship.
6. He was once the head coach of the Seahawks where they should have won the Super Bowl if the refs hadn't raped them.
7. He is a Gemini with a real bad thing for Libra quarterbacks. Steve Young, Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck are all Libras. The top QB in this 2011 draft happens to be a Libra, incidentally.
8. Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker happens to be Geminis. Jake Locker and Mike Holmgren just happen to share the same birthday. What a co-inky-dinky!
9. He happens to be the world's foremost authority on the QB position, having developed dudes like Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, and others. You might want to give him a partial credit for Kurt Warner.
10. He just happens to be the President of the Cleveland Browns.

Obviously this guy has a lot of history. I think it would be most illuminating to have Mike Holmgren on the show, and ask him all kinds of questions about the QBs in this draft. He is the world's foremost authority on the subject, you know. I think it would be very interesting to get his take on this QB class.

Last year, Holmgren was one of the few guys who tweaked on Clausen... and admitted it. I was another. I would like to hear his take on guys like Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, etc.

My predictions? He will say pretty flattering things about Blaine Gabbert. Cam Newton? Not so much. Gabbert is pretty much Holmgren's kind of a guy. If he offers any critique it will be something like "The price is too high. He costs too much."

What about Cam? Well... I'll bet Cam's not exactly Mike's kind of a guy.

You know, we just had this ugly PR flap regarding the character assessment of Cam Newton, and I think it would be a good thing to refocus the debate on mechanics, skills, achievement, and potential. What better guy to help us with this than Mike Holmgren?

Aside from talking quarterbacks, you can do the state of the franchise on the Cleveland Browns with Mike's help. You can put the Browns on the clock with Mike's help. You can also discus the present labor strife with an actual president of an actual franchise. This would be good, because this is a dude who should know something.

Let's make it happen!

NFL Path to Draft put the Rams on the clock Thursday

Intro

Unless you’re some kind of deranged lunatic or something, I know you DVR every episode of Path to the Draft, and review carefully. To do otherwise would be immoral, unethical, and beyond the pale of any acceptable human conduct. This is just one of those thing you have to do in life, or you really won’t know what’s going on.

Last Thursday

Naturally, our Rams are not getting as much press this year as last. We draft #14, not #1. We aren’t in the leadoff spot, and we aren’t going to set the table for everybody else. Still, we have gotten some attention, and that reached a pre-draft apex on Thursday.

D'Marco Farr, Munchkin pass rusher extraordinaire on our 1999 Super Bowl team, was the guest analyst. As we all know, he is the color guy on Ram broadcasts these days. It was interesting to see that, once again, and I are agreeing on most points. You see, all of us runt defensive tackles think alike. We could have been the Mercury twins on the D-Line. He’s a Gemini and I am a Virgo.

What are those points of agreement?

1. 1. If Julio Jones is there at #14, it is the biggest no-brainer of all time. I said just about the same thing a month ago.
2. 2.
We are in danger of not getting a receiver if we stay put. We will be fortune if he falls to us.
3. 3. If we can’t the receiver, Missouri DE/LB tweener Aldon Smith would be a very good choice.
4. 4. Mark Ingram is an option also, because we have no competent back up for Steve Jackson.

There was one point of disagreement though. D'Marco Farr doesn’t think that a move up the board is either likely or reasonable given the number of needs we have on this team. D'Marco may just be echoing information he has been given by insiders, such as Devaney himself. I may not be disagreeing with D'Marco on this point.

Also, there was no mention of Mike Pouncey from D’Marco. This surprised me. Our need(s) at guard are nearly as great as our need at the WR position. Mike Lombardi mentioned this immediately when they went to him.

Aldon Smith?

I have praised tweeners several times in the last few months, and particularly DE/LB tweens, describing them as the most destructive and disruptive players on the defense. I have also praised their bargain basement prices. Because these guys are usually projections, you can get them cheap, in the later rounds. The #14 pick the 1^st round wasn’t exactly what I meant when I said that. With that said…

Aldus Smith is one hell of a pass-rusher who reminds me of two men: Charles Haley and our own Leonard Little. He is one of those super-lean, greyhound defensive ends who just sprint around tackles and make free-runs on their way to sacking the QB. Even if he doesn’t get home, he forces the QB to change his underwear at half-time. All else being equal, I would love to draft this kid. Unfortunately, all else is not equal

It is difficult for me to see Aldus Smith getting a lot of snaps at DE for the Rams, unless it is the result of an injury. Chris Long and James Hall have proven their worth as our starters. We nailed 43 sacks last season as a result of their strong play. Fred Robbins has to be given considerable credit for getting home also. Because Gary Gibson is the other DT, and Fred Robbins has 11 years in the league, I think DT is the much greater priority.

Now on the other hand, if we were going to use Aldus Smith as the Will Linebacker, I would consider him a very exciting pick. As Steve Wyche correctly pointed out, Spags believes our biggest weakness is our outside linebackers. Teams love pitchouts and quick hitting stretch plays that go wide. They think they can hit our OLBs hard and fast, and we haven’t given them a reason to think otherwise. We were hurt much worse by the outside breakaway that the run up the middle last season. We have a great need at OLB.

Now for the rub: Would Spags want to use Aldon Smith in this capacity? If he does, we also need to grapple with the fact that we are drafting a projection player at #14, which is not usually considered a good value or risk. If Spags would use him like this, I would draft him. I think Aldon is a special player, and I would love to have that kind of defensive force at the WLB. In this case, I would gamble.

Mark Ingram

Although I have seldom mentioned this fact, Mark Ingram is one of my favorite guys in this draft. How can you not love this kid? If you loved Emmitt Smith, you have to love this kid. I remember the day, some 3 years ago, when a dude at work first told me Alabama had an Emmitt Smith clone, and he’s the son of Giant receiver Mark Ingram. I scoffed, and declared that this is just because he wore #22. Since that day, Mark Ingram has given me about 1,000 reasons to eat my words. I enjoyed the piece Marshall Faulk did regarding Mark Ingram, as he also prosecuted the case for baby Emmitt.

The case for and against Mark Ingram with the Rams is very, very complicated. There are a pros and cons to it that are tough to sort out. I’ll try to do it quickly in two lists of bullet points.

Pros

• Steven Jackson has had a preposterous workload over the past three years. None of us like to think of the day when Steve Jackson wears down or retires, but that day is coming.
• The Rams have no competent back up for Steve. When he gets hurt, the running game dies, and we become mono-dimensional.
• All recent Super Bowl champions have had running back committees. No recent champion has had a single sledgehammer back.
• Mark is one hell of a good kid. You gotta love this kid.
• Others (not me) have frequently compared Sam Bradford to Troy Aikman. Everybody (and I mean everybody) compares Mark Ingram to Emmit Smith. You draft Ingram and we are 66.66667% of the way to putting the triplets back in business again.

Cons

• There is a theory that Jerry Jones never drafts offensive linemen in the first round. Rather, he always takes a flashy and exciting play-maker.
• You know Jerry loves Emmitt to death, and misses him terribly. There is a theory that Jerry is laying out there in the weeds, getting ready to pounce on Mark Ingram at #9. You know this would be a very popular pick in Dallas. The fans will forgive him immediately.
• Believe it or not, we might not get a shot at him.
• Josh McDaniels is now our OC. We are going to the Spread.
• In the Spread, balance means throwing 2 or 3 times for every run.
• In the Spread, balance is more about ensuring that everyone touches the ball than a 50/50 run pass ratio.
• In the Spread, the most lethal sort of back is a Marshall Faulk, Therman Thomas, C.J. Spiller, Jhavid Best type of guy. The Spread requires a back who is a deadly and elusive receiver circling out of the backfield.
• You can make a very good case that acquiring Reggie Bush on the cheap would do more to enhance Josh McDaniels’ offensive agenda than anything else.
• How will Josh McDaniels make use of two sledgehammer backs in his Spread offense?

My two cents

The notion of assembling a new set of Triplets on our roster is a very, very exciting idea. You have to be galvanized by the notion of putting Sam Bradford together with Mark Ingram.

However, let’s remember that Michael Irvin was the first of the three Triplets in Dallas. Right now, we have nothing like him. A.J. Smith and Julio Jones look a hell of a lot like him, if you ask me. I still believe the Receiver is our first and greatest need.

Wouldn’t be just fucking incredible if we could get both Ingram and Green somehow? Oh well, we can always dream.

So why do you think Carson Palmer isn't retired?

Memo to the skeptical: I want you to spell out a rational and factual argument that might somehow suggest that Carson Palmer isn't absolutely and completely done in the NFL. I bet you can't do it.

I will go on the record and tell you flat-out-cold: Carson Palmer is done-and-done as a player in the NFL. I mean absolutely and completely done. You will not see him throw the football again in the NFL. Palmer's statistical body of work is now complete. You won't ever seen the numbers budge by so much as a single digit.

I am really, really, really annoyed by speculations regarding where Carson Palmer is going to play football in 2011. What manner of horse-shit is this? You might as well speculate about how many Angels can dance on the head of pin, or how long Santa Clause will sit on top of the Sun before his ass will burn.

FYI: It's either going to be in his big SoCal back yard or on the local playgrounds at the park. It won't be on an NFL Football field.

Frankly, you guys are just being rock-heads who refuse to accept the situation in it's full truth. You chose to confuse a completely clear-cut picture with your own doubts that are unfounded.

Let me explain something to you and try to make it completely clear for you: Carson Palmer has been in sharp decline over the past several seasons. He has been showing diminishing returns ever since he had the so-called "Tommy John" surgery. He has a hardcore medical reason for his decline. This is definitely not the young Carson. There isn't much reason to believe he's going to get better. At this stage, you don't get a year better. You get a year older.

Those who believe the media hype have simply blinded themselves to this fact, choosing to blame the receiver corp or the coaching staff or the ownership... It just ain't so. It is Carson.

Carson's motivation is plain and clear: He doesn't want to continue playing in decline. It is embarrassing, and it is ruining his once sterling reputation. If he plays again, he will want to attempt a full comeback. This comeback is in great doubt and very sketchy.

One thing is for certain: It cannot happen in Sin-si-Nasty. That franchise is a perpetual basket case, and a bush-league organization. Forget about them. They are only motivated by the balance sheet. The comeback can only happen if Carson gets into the right situation. This would probably mean the Vikings.

Even if Mike Brown were to have a major born-again turn-around (bloody unlikely), and actually agree to trade Carson, Carson might not be willing to play for the Cardinals or the Redskins. He may not believe these are good situations where he can make a comeback, and have a good 2nd act in his career.

I want to leave you with the immortal words of Ocho Cinco on the ESPN Weekend special. Carson not only put his house in Cincinnati up for sale, it has already sold. The house not only sold, but he moved out a month ago. Where did he go? To some unspecified neighborhood in SoCal. Esteban believes Carson is absolutely and completely done in a Bengal uniform.

So should you.

In accordance with these facts, you need to make some adjustments to you television programming:

1. No more speculation on where Carson Palmer will play in 2011. The answer is already known. The answer is nowhere.
2. No more Mock drafts showing the Bengals selecting B.J. Green. It ain't going to happen folks. They are going to go QB.
3. No more speculative on how Mike Brown might smooth things out with Carson Palmer. The answer is already known. It ain't going to happen.

The Mocks of 2011 suggest a great rivalry

So, my friends at the Bleacher Report sent me a morning NFL update, as they always do, and this one contained about 50th Mock Draft I've seen this season. What did it indicate?

Well, there were two points of interest for me in this and numerous other mocks:

1. The 49ers select Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
2. The Rams select Julio Jones, WR Alabama

That has been one of the premier street-fights in NCAA football over the past three seasons. If the Mocks are correct. It will continue and intensify in the Pro ranks. We'll see these two beat on each other twice per year for God knows how long.

The reasoning is pretty simple in both cases. In Peterson's case, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Patrick Peterson is possibly the best athlete in the draft
2. Corners are undervalued, and never go that high.
3. He made a 9 on his Wonderlic, sliding him down a bit
4. The NFL is about to tamper with his value as a returner
5. Ergo Patrick Peterson slides to 7 where the 49ers cannot pass

In the case of Julio Jones, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Julio blew up the combine
2. Julio either broke his foot at the combine, or before the combine (accounts vary). While this makes his performance all the more amazing, he now has a medical red-flag. Minor though it may be, it will not be ignored.
3. Julio is the clear #2 WR behind B.J. Green
4. Julio dropped some passes in college. Shame, shame.
5. The top 10 is jammed with teams that need QBs and defense.
6. There is only one very likely spot in the top 10 where a WR will go (Cleveland)
7. Julio is likely to slide to 14 where the Rams have a desperate need.

Of course, there are exceptions to this pattern. Some think Peterson will go as high as #1. I think that is bloody unlikely; wishful thinking really. It's either QB or DT for the Panthers. Forget everything else. Nobody else is truly in the running.

Some think the Washington Redskins will select Julio Jones at the #10 spot. I think that is bloody unlikely; trade stimulus talk to be frank with you. I think some Redskin fans are signalling this to see if they can pimp the Rams for some picks.

Why do I say that about the Skins? I'll give you two reasons. Few, if any NFL insiders think the Skins will select an offensive player in this years draft. Shanahan has a serious political problem and liability on his hands. He inherited a good 4-3 defense. He arbitrarily blew up the ship and went 3-4 when he did not need too. His defense is now at the bottom of the barrel. This literally spoiled the honey moon. Shanahan created some very, very, very angry Redskin fans with this one move. If that defense doesn't get up off the carpet and show some life in 2011, Shanahan could be in some danger.

I will bet you dollars to donuts that the Redskins go defense in 2011. I'll bet they do it in a big way. As Mike Lombardi says, they have a 3-4 defense, and they do not have 3-4 personnel. This is the Redskins' most serious problem. It's even worse than their QB situation, which is now sitting at #2 slot. Only after this can we begin to discus the subject of a WR. Julio Jones at #10? Nope.

Can you imagine Patrick Peterson and Julio Jones in the NFC West, playing for bitter rivals? One thing is for sure: This would be good for business.

The 2011 Wonderlics

Intro

As you well know, I have written about the Wonderlic Cognitive Inventory several times. For the benefit of those who do not know, this is a standardized intelligence test that has been around since the 1930s. It is the only IQ test the NFL relies upon for evaluating its prospects. This test is considered most important vis-à-vis quarterbacks.

Some four days ago, leaks began to surface about who scored what in the most recent round of NFL Combine Wonderlics. Let’s just say that there were some big surprises.

The Most Notable Scores

1. Greg McElroy, QB Alabama 43

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri 42

3. Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College 41

4. Danny Watkins, OT/OG Baylor (via Canada) 40

5. Scott Tolzien, QB Wisconsin 38

6. Steve Schilling, OG Michigan 35

7. Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska 35

8. Julius Thomas, TE Portland State 35

9. Christian Ponder, QB Florida State 35

10. Ricky Stanzi, QB Iowa 30

11. Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas 26

12. Cam Newton, QB Auburn 21

13. Jake Locker, QB Washington 20

14. Julio Jones, WR Alabama 15

15. B.J. Green, WR Georgia 9 or 10 {disputed}

16. Patrick Peterson 9

The Cossacks are Chuckling

Boy, this is some interesting material! If you have been following path to the draft, let’s just call this disruptive and disturbing. How so? Let me count the ways…

Greg McElroy is not really on anybody’s prospect list but he just busted the high score on the Wonderlic. This puts him in squarely in the Ryan Fitzpatrick zone. He might make it, despite being a low draft pick or a non-pick.

Blaine Gabbert may have just solidified his claim on the #1 pick in the draft. Prior to the leak of the test scores, many important voices (Mike Mayock) were already touting Gabbert as the #1 QB and possibly the #1 pick. That big score is usually interpreted by GMs as meaning “Super Bowl Material”. If the Panthers pass, the Bengals won’t. Gabbert goes no lower than #4 unless he gets into a car accident (God forbid). I want to warn you that Alex Smith once had a giant Wonderlic score like this. It didn’t stop him from going bust. I think Gabbert is considerably better than Smith, but I am still skeptical.

Despite being a heavy legged waist bender, Castonzo is ranked by many as the top lineman in the draft. Not by me. I say Pouncey is #1. Still, Castonzo has impressed everybody with his character and intelligence. His Wonderlic ain’t going to hurt him any. Herm Edwards says that offensive linemen are usually the smartest guys on the team. I am sure there are teams that aim for this goal, and plan to keep it that way. Castonzo is going to continue to be a factor.

Danny Watkins is an interesting case. He is a 27 year old Canadian kid who stands 6-4 and weighs in at 310. He is an intriguing candidate, but there are disputes about him. Most believe he is well past his growing spurt, so he is as big and strong as he is going to get. If you like him as-is, take him. If you want him to get stronger… well… maybe not. His IQ is going to help him out.

Scott Tolzien is in a similar boat as McElroy. Many do not regard him as a prospect, but he just helped himself.

Steve Schilling has been flying under the radar. I have not yet heard his name mentioned on ESPN or the NFL Network. He just got noticed.

Now we come to one of the great disruptions of the test: Prince Amukamara 35, Patrick Peterson 9. That’s a blowout victory. It resembles the score of Super Bowl 18. For those who don’t know Patrick Peterson is ranked by some as the top prospect in the draft, and certainly the top CB. Amukamara is the runner-up in the #2 corner, and a top 20 pick. The disparity in scores here is bound to faction the league. Defensive coaches who believe in instinct will certainly continue to extol Peterson. They will blow off the Wonderlic scores. DCs who love smart players are going to move Amukamara way up their boards. There are sizable factions on both sides of the instinct/intelligence question in the NFL.

Julius Thomas is a very small college tight end who was on nobody’s radar screen. He just got noticed. I would bet that somebody wants to interview him now. If the Big Tuna were still in the league, he would be interviewing this kid.

Christian Ponder has been slowly but surely creeping up everybody’s draft board. With a score 1 point lower than Sam Bradford’s last year, he just helped himself tremendously. He’s got one of those Super Bowl capable scores, and I guarantee that several important people now view him as a franchise QB. Although it looks doubtful, he may yet go in the 1^st round, and ahead of Ryan Mallet. The kid has no significant negatives on his record.

Ricky Stanzi is another guy who just got noticed.

Now we come to another one of those interesting score in the test! Ryan Mallet is one of the hottest buzz guys in the 2011 draft… for good reasons and for bad. A famous St. Louis sports writer declared Ryan Mallet left Michigan because he was seriously addicted to several illegal substances at the time. Reportedly, he still has a drug habit, although it might just be marijuana. At the moment these claims have not been substantiated. Mallet has not tested positive to anything yet. He claims he is drug free. There are many who are in love with his arm, his accuracy, and the fact that he played under center. He reminds me of something between Drew Bledsoe and Jim Everett, but with sketchy aspects to him. 25 is the average score of an NFL QB. Mallet is 1 point higher than that, but his score is considerably lower than his competitors. 28 is considered the minimum score for a Super Bowl capable QB. Mallet is 2 points shy of this mark. Ryan’s score of 26 is going to microwave this debate.

Cam Newton scored 21 on his Wonderlic. While this is not a terrible score (like Vince Young’s 9) it is 3 points lower than Tim Tebow, and 2 points lower than Jimmy Clausen last year. When Tebow and Clausen scored their 24 and 23 point last year, howls went up from many league sources. It was not well received. This is because 25 is average, and 28 is the start of the sweetness zone. Those who love Cam are going to label the Wonderlic culturally biased, and they will take heart in the fact that his score is 233% of Vince Young’s. I will bet you dollars to donuts that there are experts in the league who now rate Christian Ponder higher than Cam Newton.

And now we come to a tragic case. It would seem my favorite QB prospect, Jake Locker, scored a 20 on this test. This just might be the death of his 1^st round hopes. If you are one of the many out there wondering how Jake just fell out of the 1^st round last week, look no further than this score. It’s 5 points below average, 4 points below Tebow, 3 below Clausen, and 1 behind Newton. It looks like a bottom of the barrel score. I don’t understand this. He does not strike me as a 20 guy. He must have had a bad day, or got off to a poor start. This kid is a Gemini, and he should be a smart guy. I continue to believe he will be a hell of a QB for the Seattle Seahawks. The hometown folks love him and believe in him, and sometimes that’s all it takes.

And now we come to the other big disruption brought to you by Mr. Wonderlic. B.J. Green capped his bad combine by making a 9 on his Wonderlic test. I still remember the NFL SoundFX clip where Warren Sapp was poking fun at Akili Smith for scoring a 9 on his Wonderlic. The QB killer regards this as a bad score. Mr. Green's response to this charge was that he actually scored a 10. Okay… Ad meanwhile, his SEC rival Julio Jones tacked down a 15. This is not a terrific score either, but it underscores the fact that Julio mastered B.J.’s ass at the 2011 NFL Combine.

It should be understood that the Wonderlic is not so heavily emphasized in the case of Wide Receivers. This is strange, because the WR is the other half of the passing combo, and it is considered the second most difficult NFL position to master for kids coming out of college. It stands to reason that good intelligence can help shorten that learning curve. I, myself, keep wondering how many signs NFL GMs and draft experts will ignore before the move Julio ahead of B.J. on the draft charts. Several may have already quietly done so, and not told.

I eagerly look forward to seeing which one of these of these two young men goes first in the draft. I continue to believe B.J. would have the better chemistry with Sam Bradford, but you have to love everything we are seeing these days about Julio Jones. Heads we win, tails we win.

Time to get serious about the draft

Intro

I’ve had a lot of things on plate lately, metaphorically, but not literally. This busy-state has kept me from writing about the NFL Draft as much as I would normally. The inspiration to write hasn’t been stimulated much by the talent-level in this draft.

Let me level with you folks out there: 2011 cannot compare to 2010. This draft class is way below the draft class of 2010. 2010 was one of those rare moments when a full crop of great players arrived. Many experts described 2010 as the best draft year since the legendary class of 1983. 2011 is nothing special. The crop of 2011 is basically a run-of-the-mill bunch. Even that statement might give these guys too much credit.

Still, good-crop, bad-crop, or mediocre crop, it’s time to get serious about this draft. Let me begin my series with a quick summary of my thoughts about

My General Conclusions about the 2011 Draft

1. The class of 2011 is nowhere near as good as the crop of 2010.

2. This is particularly bad Quarterback class. None of these guys are strong enough to carry the weight of Sam Bradford’s jockstrap. I think the top two ranked QB in 2011 would have been a 2^nd rounders in 2010. These guys are destined to become over-bought, over-priced disappointments. That’s the best-case scenario. Of all these guys, the only kid I really like is Jake Locker. I especially like the fact that I can have him in the 2^nd round. He’s a good bargain at that price.

3. This is an atrocious year for offensive linemen. Only Mike Pouncey is worthy of being selected in the first round. Several more will probably be taken in the 1^st round due scarcity-inflation, but this is not a good thing. Many of these guys will become over-bought, over-priced disappointments. Just remember Mike Mayock’s key term: heavy-legged waist-benders with little upper-body strength. They’re generally on the skinny side also. If you want a good offensive lineman, you better get Mike Pouncey in the 1^st round. Mike could be an alternative for the Rams at the #14 slot.

4. This is a very bad year for tight ends. Not a single one is expected to go in the 1^st round. We’ll see if any happen to go in the 2^nd round. If I was going to take one, it might be Jordan Cameron (not to be confused with Cameron Jordan of Cal Berkeley) of the USC Trojans later on in the 4^th or 5^th round.

5. This is a bad year for running backs. I see only one young man in this draft (Mark Ingram) who should have a career of significance in the NFL. I don’t see many others who will become factors in the NFL. None of these guys are home-run hitters or game changers like C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, or even (my favorite) Dexter McCluster. A little schmoe named Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State) is the most elusive guy in this class, but I see him as a situational specialist. Kendall might be a 3^rd rounder.

6. This is a pretty good year for Wide Receivers, and better than 2010. This is one of the few bright spots in the class of 2011. There could be two or three deadly receivers: B.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Leonard Hankerson. Both B.J. Green and Julio Jones compare well with Dez Bryant of the 2010 draft. They are better than Demaryius Thomas. This is a very good year to be in need of a Receiver.

7. This is a good year for defensive linemen. It’s a better year for defensive ends than defensive tackles. By no means is this class as good as last year’s crop. None of these guys are as good as Gerald McCoy. None of them are strong enough to carry the weight of Ndamukong Suh’s jockstrap. Still, if you need some defensive line help, you should be able to find some this year.

8. The Linebackers in this crop are pretty good. Last year, Rolando McClain (Raiders) was the first LB off the board followed by Sean Weatherspoon (Falcons). I think it is safe to say both of those guys were disappointing. I think Von Miller is far better than either of these two. I would be willing to argue that my fellow Bruin Akeem Ayers is better also. Akeem Ayers just might be an alternative for the Rams at #14.

9. The corners in this year’s crop are better than last year’s, but this is mostly because of Patrick Peterson, and the weakness of last year’s crop. I’m not too sweet on this crop. If you need one, you better go up top and get the big-dog.

10. The safeties in this year’s crop are not very close to those of 2010. Eric Berry and Earl Thomas were both vastly superior to this year’s crop. Still, I like Rahim Moore of UCLA and DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson in 2^nd round of this draft. In the 2^nd round, I think they can both deliver good value.

11. Marcell Dareus is probably the best over-all athlete in this draft. After him, the prospects at DT fall-off rapidly. Nick Fairley is the second coming of Ohio State’s Dan “Big Daddy” Wilkinson. Big Daddy was a Bengal bust back in 1994.

12. Von Miller & Patrick Peterson are in a dead-heat for the 2^nd overall athlete sweepstakes. I am going to lean towards Von Miller because my Rams are need of a Linebacker, and I like what I see. Still, there is very little chance my team might get a crack at Von Miller, even if they trade up.

13. B.J. Green is the #4 guy on my board. It gets very messy after that.

Summary for Ram fans

I see three potential players the Rams might look at for the #14 pick:

1. Julio Jones, WR Alabama Crimson Tide
2. Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida Gators
3. Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA Bruins

In the second round, I think we are looking for Leonard Hankerson (WR Miami Hurricanes) or Rahim Moore (FS UCLA Bruins)

It's time for your Cam Newton update!

Psyche! No way!

We're not going to play that game here. Just not interested in this topic. Who is anyway? Only Rich Eisen of the NFL Network, that's who.

Rich, this ain't Tim Tebow. Get off this topic. This is not the most transcendent athlete of this draft.

Too much Cam... Too much attention to the quarterback

Memorandum to the NFL Network: You guys are spending way too much time talking about Cam Newton, and far too much time focusing on the QB. Fix this. Reallocate your time to talk about some of the hidden positions like the offensive guards and the linebackers. We could use more focus on the running back class also.

Last year, you guys got me to play along with this game plan, because my Rams were in the rarest of all moods: they were set to take a QB in the first round. I was also in a rare mood, because my favorite kid in 2010 just happened to be Tim Tebow.

Not this year.

I know what you are going to say:

1. It's a quarterback driven league
2. Most of the teams at the bottom of the heap lack a franchise QB
3. The fans whose teams are drafting highest are watching the most

Ergo sum, we should focus on the QB.

Oh yeah? Well over and against that I would tell the following:

1. Carolina just took a QB in the 2nd round
2. Denver just took a QB in the 1st round
3. Buffalo claims that they are happy with Fitzgerald
4. The Bengals are probably going to take a QB
5. The Cards better take a QB, but they are signaling for a veteran free agent
6. The Browns have Colt McCoy, and are happy
7. The 49ers better take a QB, but I think they won't
8. The Titans better take a QB, but I bet they won't
9. The Cowboys are not taking a QB, period. Forget about it.
10. The Redskins should take a QB, but I think they won't

So when we break down the top 10 drafting teams, I think there are only 4 or 5 that are likely to take a QB at some point in this 2011 draft. Over and against this probability is the fact that there are only 3 QBs worth taking in the first round... and that is being generous.

First, allow me to make a declaration: This is a bad QB year, and far worse than last year. I see a ton of great athletes, but I don't see many or any sure-fire franchise QBs in 2011. If you doubt this statement, why do you think so many were so desperate to see Andrew Luck (a red-shirt sophomore) declare for the draft? Why do you think so many who were so crushed when he refused to enter the draft? I'll tell you why: This is a piece of shit draft class when it comes to QBs.

The only two QBs I like in this draft are Jack Locker (U.Dub) and Andy Dalton (TCU). I also like Christian Ponder... up to a point. I would take these three guys. I would construct my offense around the first two. I would expect it to be a high efficiency offense also.

For some reason, I can't get comfortable with Blaine Gabbert. I should be comfortable with him. He looks pretty good in general. For some reason I can't shake, I just don't think so. I would not be comfortable selecting him. It could have a lot to do with the fact that he is a true 21 year old Junior, and 90% of these QBs go bust. It could be the fact that he is a true Spread guy, and he's going to need a good comfortable fit. There aren't too many of those in the NFL.

For reasons I have already stated, I'm not taking Cam Newton. He's a one season wonder, he's got red flags, and he struggled a bit at the combine. He's also a true junior... if that. You got a 10% chance if you take this kid. Cam just isn't on my draft board. He's not what I'm looking for. If you want to take him with the #3 pick in draft, you just go right ahead and be fucking stupid. God bless you, man.

Ryan Mallet looks great, but you know the drug allegations. He also bounced around from Michigan to Arkansas. If you want him, you take him. He's not on my draft board. I wish you good luck with your selection, especially since our business interests do not conflict.

This leaves one intriguing candidate on the board: Colin Kaepernick (Nevada). He's a 23 year old senior, he has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, he has a good rep, more experience, and he seems smarter. He's going to be a development project, but I like him in general. I would consider Colin Kaepernick. He may yet turn out to be the steal of the 2011 draft. He may just be the secrete franchise-maker.

How unfortunate...

I sat down to demand more talk about offensive guards and linebackers, and I wound up writing about the goddamn quarterbacks. I want it to be know that Deacon Jones was right. Quarterbacks ain't no damn good to God or this country. If we are ever to have law and order in the West, the first thing we gotta do is round up all the Quarterbacks and shoot'em down like dogs. The world would be a better place if there were no Quarterbacks in it.

You know I played Nose Tackle, don't you?

We need to stuff all the quarterbacks in the world into a burlap sack and beat on the sack with a baseball bat.