I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver

This morning the Internet is buzzing like hell with news of the Redskins negotiating with the Broncos for that #2 overall-pick in Thursday's draft. Some are saying the Redskins' move was premature. On the contrary, the timing is perfect. We are presently only about about 30 hours from gavel-time. It's time to go, buddy. You better be negotiating right now.

For the Redskins, the move is perfectly understandable. It's pricey as hell, but it is perfectly understandable. Shanahan's WCO doesn't work without a smart AND mobile quarterback. Say what you will about his very lack-luster college career, but Gabbert is very smart and very mobile. He fits the suit very well. Sometimes you just have to pay what it costs.

If you want that Bob Kramer knife, you're going to have to pay through the nose to get it.

The McNabb story in Washington has ended tragically, and so will the Shanahan story if he doesn't bust a move. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Shanahan needs defense like a dying man in the desert needs water. He may be planing to do what I hope my Rams will do: Fix the defense in free-agency.

I do want to crow for a moment, though. I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver. All the stuff about Julio Jones was horse shit from the beginning. The only thing worse than a QB with no WR is a WR with no QB. Just ask the Cardinals.

As Michael Lombardi has said many times, there is a certain order of operations you go through in building an offensive unit. The order of operations is important. Go out-of-order you will get bad results. Here is that order.

1. Offensive line
2. Quarterback
3. Receivers

You need the line first, or you will have a David Carr situation. You need the Quarterback next. There is no point in tying up picks and money in a receiver until you have a trigger man who can make him work. I have excluded the RB positions because this is increasingly a commodity position handled by a committee.

On the other half of the equation, I don't think I like this deal if I am the Broncos. I know the defense needs a full scale rebuild. I know this is a defense-rich draft. I know you want several of these players, not one. I know you feel you can get several by doing this deal.

Nevertheless, Marcell Darius and Von Miller are two of the crown jewels in this draft. I think I would probably take Von Miller and see if I could arrange Phil Taylor from Baylor later on. I would reckon this as the best way to rebuild my defense. You might also take Darius and Akeem Ayers.

We'll see if the Redskins make it worth John Elway's trouble. Shanahan and Elway certainly have deep-ties. I am sure there is enough personal good-will there to get the deal done, if the figures are right.

Rams and Cowboys talking trade again?

For about 11 days now, rumors of a trade between the Rams and Cowboys have been circulating on various sports sites around the web. According to my best research guess, this rumor was first offered by John Lorge on 4/8/2011 on a BleacherReport.com mock draft. Since then it has been gathering steam in various and sundry quadrants.

Todd McShay, member of the world-wide eatter of shorts, added his voice to these rumors right around April 14/15, saying that his sources reported that discusions were taking place. Since then, many Cowboy sites have eagerly endorsed the deal. Many Ram fans have also embraced the news.

Strangely, famous St. Louis sports writer Howard Balzer doesn't really like the idea. He hasn't really qualified his objections.

Just what is the idea precisely? The Rams eMail the Cowboys the 14th and 78th picks in the draft and get the 9th pick in return. This puts the Rams immediately in front of the Redskins, meaning they can't fuck us out of Julio Jones. The Cowboys get to nail their favorite prospect (possibly Corey Liuget) at a much more reasonable price, and they get a 3rd rounder for their trouble.

On the surface, it is hard to find any fault in this deal. The Rams get what they need, and the Cowboys get what they need. Good deal for both sides.

It wouldn't be the first time Billy Devaney did a deal with Jerry Jones. We traded trash last year in a deal that was not particularly good for either side. We both went into that deal with eyes wide open. Neither side had unreasonable expectations about the quality of that deal. We were both unloading dead-weight.

While I applaud the effort at a deal, and while I would welcome Julio to the Rams roster, I am not sure this is exactly the right deal. The cost is not an issue. The price is reasonable. The issue is draft position. I am not sure this puts us high enough up the board to get what we want.

As I have said several times, I am not concerned about the Redskins selecting Julio Jones. WR is a deep 3rd place need for the Skins. This is Liar's Poker season, as Mike Lombardi calls it. All Redskin signals in Julio's direction are false. Believe me, they need a QB before they need to take a WR. They also need defense like a dying man in the desert needs water.

I am very concerned about teams higher than the Redskins, namely the Bengals and the Browns, selecting both A.J. Green and Julio Jones. We may reach #9 to no avail. This would suck. This would allow us a very nice choice of defensive players, but this is not what we had in mind when we traded up.

Despite the fact that the Cardinals are in our division, I would be talking deal with them. The Cardinals are the team most likely to get fucked out of everything they want in this draft.

Both Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert are trending very high right now. They could easily be gone before #5. I could see Miller going #2 or #3. I can see Gabbert going #1 or #4. If the Cardinals can't get what they want at #5, they might be primed for a deal to move down.

The #5 pick would have a ton of value for the Rams. I would give up the #14 and teh #47 pick to get it. This could potentially yeild either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. This is a very nice position to be in. We just might select the pick of the litter at #5. You know I would love that.

I would say that the number 5 slot is the one we want.

Congratulations to Sam Bradford, Charlie Casserly's top QB of the past four drafts

So if you were watching Path to the Draft this evening, you know the NFL Network asked Charlie Casserly to rank top prospect Blaine Gabbert versus the other successful 1st round QBs who have come out of the past 3 drafts. Charlie combined all the first rounders from 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 and came up with the following rankings.

1. Sam Bradford, Rams 2010
2. Matt Ryan, Falcons 2008
3. Matt Stafford, Lions 2009
4. Blaine Gabbert, ???? 2011
5. Mark Sanchez, Jets 2009
6. Joe Flacco, Ravens 2008
7. Josh Freeman 2009.

There you have it folks, Charlie says Sam is the best pro-prospect QB of the past four seasons. How about 'dem apples? You can watch the video here.

Why Sam? One word: Accuracy. I had a hunch he was going to say that. Casserly makes no bones about it when he says that throwing accuracy is the most important talent/skill a quarterback can possibly have. As Troy Aikman says, all the size, strength, speed, and toughness in the world won't do a QB any good if he can't put the football where it has to go on any given play. Charlie says Sam is way more accurate that any other guy on that list.

The one quibble I had with his ranking system is the position of Josh Freeman at #7. Although I have not said much about it, I am very bullish on the future of the Bucs. I think they are looking like a fundamentally solid team on offense. They need some additional work on defense, but I think they will make the playoffs and give some people fits in 2011... if there is a 2011.

Certainly, Freeman is the key to their success. Tampa won some very close games last season, not the least of which was their battle with my Rams. That had a hell of a lot to do with the clutch drives and clutch plays Josh Freeman made late in the game.

I am extremely partial to clutch players. If you are a QB with fantastic comeback ability, you will score thousands of extra credit points in my book. The Unitases, Staubachs, Elways, and Roethlisbergers of this world rank at or near the top of my all-time great list because of their incredible clutch play.

Josh Freeman has already shown that he can turn the tide of battle in the clutch moments of the game. Personally, I would put him no lower than 3 on the list.

In Charlie's defense, it seemed that he was ranking these young QBs as prospects. That is, based on their pre-draft scouting reports. I wouldn't be surprised to discover that some of their pro play leaked into his report, though. I will grant you that Josh Freeman surprised many of us with his clutch play. I don't know about you, but I didn't see that in the tea leaves.

The run of the mill gang, 2011

So, I was reading the NFL news this morning, and a fundamentally solid dude by the name of Steve Wyche informed us all that many NFL teams think that Blaine Gabbert is nothing special. You can read it for yourself here. Now, while Blaine is a very clean kid, and a very winsome likable guy, I am forced to agree... 100%.

Sorry world. I would much rather like the kid. There is nothing to dislike, on a personal basis. Understand this: If Andrew Luck were in this draft, you know who everybody would be clamoring for. You know Gabbert has risen because there is nobody else to occupy that vacuum at the top QB position. Nature abhors a vacuum.

As Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said last night on NFL Total Access, there are no Sam Bradfords in this year's draft. I was greatly heartened to discover that he sees things much as I do.

This brings us to point two of Wyche piece. He very strongly implies that Cam Newton could easily become the one memorable and hall of fame QB in this draft. I would add just one caveat: provided he doesn't bust outright.

Understand this: I would much rather like Cam Newton. Cam is a Taurus kid. He's an Earth brother. I love mobile, athletic kids, and I like the Spread. I do find him to be a winsome kid. I would greatly prefer to endorse him. Nevertheless, he is a 1 year wonder. As Mike Mayock is fond of saying: NFL Draft history has a landfill worth of 1 year wonder picks who went bust. This is a very risky kid. He is one of the riskiest picks in the entire draft, and that can be demonstrated with stone-cold actuarial statistics.

You pick him at your risk.

I want to state big picture one more time so draft mania doesn't sweep us out to sea its powerful riptide. The 2011 draft cannot hold a candle to the 2010 draft. This is strictly a run-of-the-mill, mediocre, average draft class. That may be giving these kids too much credit. 20 years from now, this may be a very forgettable draft class.

As Charlie Casserly has said, he can hardly remember the last time he has seen such a weak class of seniors. I would remind you that is true because we had such an amazing crop of juniors in last year's draft. I warned you that 2011 was going to be weak.

This is why I have a had a very difficult time getting motivated to write about this crop, especially for wider-public arenas such as BleacherReport.com. This just isn't an exciting class. It is difficult to get excited about the 2011 draft crop. It's like looking at bad porn. It just isn't exciting, although you think it should be.

This is why I continue to tell my fellow Ram-fans that the greatest good that could ever come out of this draft is a top-flight wide receiver. Even if we give up a sizable chunk of our draft to get A.J. Green or Julio Jones, it will be well worth the cost, and the best use of our ammo.

The only three guys who excite me are Von Miller, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green. All three of these guys are top-prospects, no matter what the year. They would have been high picks last year. They will be this year.

The rest of these first round guys are over-bought, over-priced, high risk, potential busts.

Jimmy Clausen, Mike Lombardi and Me

My position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, I was one of Jimmy Clausen’s most outspoken detractors. I went back and read a few of my blog posts in prep for this one, and I cringe at some of the ruthless, crushing, brutal statements I laid down. I was brutally honest. I had reason to be.

Those were desperate times. My Rams had hit the bottom of the barrel. The organization was going to change QBs, and that meant choosing a new QB somewhere in the 2010 draft. We all knew that. There was a loud and vocal Notre Dame contingent in the Midwest who were adamant that the Rams needed to select Jimmy Clausen #1 in the draft. Mel Kiper Jr. was pouring fuel on that fire. I had to stomp out the fire.

It wasn’t personal. I don’t hate the kid. I wish him success now that he is in the league. I just didn’t want my team to take him. Why? Well… I was pretty sure he was going to go bust for all the reasons I spelled out in detail. We were already in the shithouse. We could not afford to lose 5 years and another HQ regime on a busted #1 pick. The catastrophe had to be averted.

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, Mike Lombardi was pretty damn positive on Jimmy Clausen. Like many, he loved the fact that Clausen played under center for the ‘legendary’ (wft?) Charlie Weis. Like many, Lombardi suspected that Clausen might be the most pro-ready QB. Like so many, Lombardi felt that Clausen had fallen into a nearly ideal situation in Carolina. He was with a good team that had a solid running game, a good offensive line, and a good defense. Clausen was ostensibly the QB best setup for success in 2010. Or so they all said…

Well, here we are…

What a difference a single year makes. My Rams are no longer 1-15 but 7-9. The Panthers are no longer 8-8 but 2-14. We gained 6 wins. They lost 6 more games. We took Sam Bradford (over my objections) and they took Clausen (over my objections). The Panthers are drafting #1. We are drafting #14. What a remarkable flip-flop of positions.

My, my, my how everyone’s positions on Clausen have changed!

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2011

Lombardi, like everybody else, seems to have completely written off Clausen after a just few starts in 2010. Yes, it was ugly. It was even more ugly than I suggested. Lombardi and everybody else has some justification for the quick flip-flop of position.

Now you see Lombardi advocating the notion that Carolina must draft Blaine Gabbert with the top pick in this 2011 Draft.

My position on Clausen in 2011

You have no idea how awkward I feel writing the following paragraph. Were I any other guy, I would probably be crowing about how right I was, and how wrong everybody else was. I would pound my chest about how I took a stand against the draft experts and won. Granted, I sorta did a little bit of that here, but this is not what I have sat down to write.

My position on Clausen in 2011 is… eh… ah… er… give him another chance.

WHAT?

Yep.

NO!

Yep.

NO FUCKING WAY???

Yes way. Let me make the following points and I’ll just leave it at that.

Reasons for not drafting a QB and giving Clausen a chance in 2011

1. You hardly gave Clausen a chance in 2011
2. Having drafted this kid, you are morally obligated to give this kid something vaguely resembling an even break.
3. The whole team clearly suffered a massive breakdown this season.
4. This wasn’t exactly Clausen’s fault.
5. You didn’t get better results with Nat Moore.
6. One of the best reasons why Clausen is going bust now lies in the fact that he came out as a true 21 year old junior. Junior QBs go bust at a 90% rate in the NFL.
7. Lombardi is counseling you to take another 21 year old true junior.
8. Do you want another thin-dime of a chance with your #1 pick in 2011?
9. While I do believe Blaine Gabbert is a heck of a lot better than Clausen, I am still not sold on this guy, especially as the #1 pick overall.
10. I think the odds are perilously high that you will compound the bust of one true junior QB with another true Junior QB. The cost of this bust will be vastly higher.
11. If you are smart, you’ll trade down with the Bengals, get a 2nd round pick. Then you should select Patrick Peterson and Christian Ponder or (maybe) Jake Locker.
12. Even if Ponder is the guy you start by the end of the season, you may develop Clausen into a salable commodity in 2011. Get something back for him.

I must say I am a little annoyed…

I’ve been mentioning Mike Lombardi quite a bit lately. Although I like the guy, he annoys me tremendously with his advocacy of the QB position. Setting aside the concrete fact that the only good QB is a dead QB, it seems that Lombardi’s sole mission on Path to the Draft is to convince as many teams to take QBs as high in the first round as possible.

I am not nearly so sanguine about taking a QB in the draft. Knowing full well that you bare a 70% chance of going bust in a best-case scenario, this is not a gamble you take lightly. You don’t gamble like this every year, unless you are a crazy fool. You should be especially careful of gambling like this when you are stuck in the shithole. If you miss here, you are fucked for 5 years, and it will probably sink the current administration.

Just remember what Billy Devaney said to Marshall Faulk “When I drafted this kid, I had to pack-up my office. If he gets hurt, I’m going to be fired.” Draft one at your mortal risk.

Now… once again, I feel a little funny writing that last paragraph. Why? Well… you see, my Rams seem to be the latest primary beneficiaries of drafting a top-end QB. Yes, I know this is true. It is very good not need a QB, especially this year. The future looks bright for my Rams, and this is because we have a rising franchise QB. Thought I fought the hell out of him, Devaney turned out to be right, and I was wrong.

I want to say it one more time, so I make it perfectly clear: None of the QBs in this draft are strong enough to carry the weight of Sam Bradford’s jockstrap. I don’t feel particularly great about any of the QB prospects in this draft. Last year, I liked three of them, but not necessarily for my Rams.

Don’t let anybody deceive you: 2011 is a much worse year for QBs than 2010. There are a lot of absolutely sensational athletes in this draft; possibly the best we’ve ever seen. I don’t know if there is so much as one franchise QB in this draft. If there is, he probably isn’t one of the guys they are looking at in the 1^st round.

Farewell, Carson Palmer

So I am wearing my Carson Palmer #9 Bengals Jersey today in honor of Carson Palmer's official retirement. If he hasn't already filed retirement papers with NFL HQ, it's coming soon, despite the looming lockout.

All sources on the NFL Network indicate that Carson is not bluffing. He has between $75-80 million in the bank, he does not have to pay any of those dollars back if he retires, and they are pretty sure he will never play in a Bengals uniform again. Those same sources indicate that the owner/president Mike Brown is not bluffing either. He will not deal Carson because it would set a bad precedent for the future. Brown says he wishes Carson well in his retirement, and plans to move on.

Just how far along does Mike Brown plan to move? The NFL Network reports that the Bengals are making plans to draft a QB in the 2011 draft. This doesn't necessarily mean they will use the #4 pick on QB, but I would bet you money they will in the end. Scratch Cincinnati off your list of landing spots for A.J. Green and Julio Jones. I doubt they are taking a WR with the #4 overall pick. They're going to take a QB; Blaine Gabbert I reckon.

Consider the Bengals draft in 2011. Prior to the crystallization of Carson Palmer's position, experts believed that the Bengals were the first team on the big-board extremely likely to (a) stand pat, and (b) select an offensive player, (c) select A.J. Green. This was the spot where A.J. Green was projected to go. Not now, baby.

You could argue that it was never the case in the first place. Why?

The Bengals have a poor passing game. Of this there can be no doubt. This has been the case for several years now. However, the Bengals have had a pretty good receiver corp, plus or minus 2009. They have a pretty good receiver corp as they enter the 2011 season. They have some Divas, but these are Divas with hands. If this be the case, why then do they have a poor passing game?

Most of us who watch football understand that Carson Palmer has been way off-target and in decline over these past several years. Palmer's accuracy, velocity, reads, and decision making have been questionable. The onus is on Carson Palmer, not the receivers. This makes Palmer's current off-season trade demand even more bizarre. Who wants him? I don't. I'm not trading for him.

Even in a magic world where there is no labor-strife with Carson Palmer, selecting A.J. Green rather than Blaine Gabbert would be a serious strategic blunder for the Bengals. Mike Brown needs to be thinking about his next-gen QB, not another receiver.

Over and against my QB theory is the question of whether Bengals can be expected to make a rational choice in the draft? Can they? I don't know. Sometimes Mike Brown makes very shrewd moves. Sometimes he doesn't. All signs do indicate that Mike Brown is preparing to select a QB in this draft.

The Bengals could select B.J. Green, or they might select Julio Jones. Both receivers are likely to be on the board when their number comes up. Neither pick is advisable. They should select Blaine Gabbert. Logically, this is the spot where Gabbert should go.