2012 Draft: Wacky prediction #1 Jim Irsay selects Robert Griffin III

In the surprise upset of the century thus far, Jim Ersay and the Colts will select Robert Griffin III #1 over-all in the coming NFL Draft.  Robert Griffin, not Andrew Luck, will become Peyton Manning's successor in the Colt's lineup.  This will be the shocker of shockers in 2012.

Why? Let me give you a list of reasons why:

1. Jim Irsay is a Gemini
2. Robert Griffin III is an Aquarius
3. A number of astrological programs I own predict Irsay will like Griffin better than Luck.
4. This is pretty straightforward, if you understand the theory behind it, but there are some interesting wrinkles in this pile of numbers.
5. Jim Irsay has been making some emotional and intuitive decisions lately... like the decision to fire Vice-Chairman Bill Polian.
6. When decisions are made at the gut-level, you chose the kid you like better, rather than the one who comes most-highly recommended.
7. In terms of pure combine numbers, it is likely Griffin will out-perform Luck at the track-meet in Indianapolis.  This will provide a fig-leaf of science to cover pure choice by preference.
8. Robert Griffin III will 'fit' with current Colt personnel such as Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Donald Brown somewhat better than Andrew Luck will.  These are three of the survivors expected to come forward into the new era of Colt football.
9. Many voices are muttering and murmuring about the coming era of the super-mobile athletic quarterback.  Of course, it's guys like Steve Young, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton who created this buzz.  RGIII is expected to raise that buzz.  Many traditionalists reject this argument vehemently.  I suspect that Irsay will be willing to give it a try.  

The interesting wrinkle is that some software programs predict Irsay will like Griffin better on first contact, but get along better with Luck over the long-term.  

Every have one of those relationships?  You like somebody a lot at first, only to discover you don't get along that well in the long-run?  Ever have a luke-warm to cold reaction to someone at first, only to discover you are highly compatible later on?

This is basically what the Astrological software predicts.  Irsay is going to like Robert Griffin a lot when he first meets him, but it may be a difficult marriage in the long run.  Irsay's first meeting with Andrew Luck is going to leave him cold.  He's just not going to have a good or strong feeling about drafting Andrew.  If he does, it should work out fine in the long run.

Beware of those gut-level and intuitive reactions to people.  You can't always trust your feelings.  As the scientists say, try to disprove your theory, don't try to prove your theory.  You're heart can tell lies.

Virgo-Pisces Alliance No.228: Why is Trent Dilfer Andrew Luck's biggest fan?

So, unless you have been under a rock for the past two years, you probably know the name of Andrew Luck.  You probably know that he is expected to the be the #1 over-all pick in the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.  Unless something really unexpected happens, the Colts will take him and begin their rebuilding effort in verity & sooth.

I will blog about Jim Irsay's very interesting dilemma soon, but not this time.

One of the things football fans have noticed over the course of the past several months is that Andrew Luck has many advocates.  In fact, he has almost zero (0) detractors.

So far, only Phil Simms has risen in critique of Andrew Luck.  I have the greatest respect for Phil Simms, and I view him as one of the top-analysts of the game.  However, I think his critique of Andrew is off-base.  I just don't see it his way.  I just can't see on film what he claims to have seen on film.  When Phil says Andrew doesn't make NFL-type throws, I simply can't understand what he's talking about.  I've seen almost nothing but NFL-type throws out of the kid.  The weight of evidence is greatly against Phil.

Among all of the many advocates Andrew has, one stands out above all the rest.  That would be Trent Dilfer.  Trent Dilfer has said extraordinary things about Andrew.  Like what?  How about "Andrew Luck has no flaws".

Wow... that would make Andrew Luck perfect, now wouldn't it?  I rate the kid pretty dang high, but I would stop shy of perfect.  It's pretty clear that Trent doesn't shy away from that statement.  He believes Andrew will have the most glory-ladened career of all the young'ins coming up in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Trent really believes he is the perfect QB candidate.

It's to be expected.  Trent is a March 13, 1972 Pisces dude.  Andrew is a September 12, 1989 Virgo kid.  That's almost a perfect 180, folks.  The circular distance between March 13 and September 12 is almost exactly 180 degrees.  That is the most powerful angle for attraction, balance, and complementary.  Sirius 1.1 doesn't score them that high, but this is one of those false negatives I like to harp upon.  Looking at the two charts in comparison, I can see obvious things the scoring engine missed.  Dilfer likes Luck better than Sirius says.

Incidentally, Trent is birthday-buddies with my brother.  My brother is 3 years younger.  Once upon a time, I was Trent Dilfer's biggest advocate in the NFL Draft.  I was the leader of the Draft-Trent movement among the Ram fans back 1994.  I was so incandescently pissed-off  when my Rams failed to broker a deal in that draft that I literally took a couple of years off from football.  I knew we were going to suck.  1994-1998 were absolutely dreadful years, only exceeded by our recent stretch of time.  I maintain those would have been much better years if we had made a deal and selected Trent.  Our biggest problem in those days was the QB position.

If you have been keeping track of super-recent events, you know that a debate is emerging inside NFL business circles.  The question is simple.  Who is better:  Andrew Luck of Robert Griffin III?  This is natural occurrence.  We always have too much time on our hands this time of year, ergo we chew over questions and non-questions a thousand times.  Just a couple of months ago, this question would have been considered untenable.

I want to make some specific predictions about this coming debate:

1. It will rage on until draft day
2. RGIII's knee injury will not deter this debate.  Andrew had one also.
3. The Fire/Air Alliance will back RGIII
4. The Earth/Water Alliance will back Andrew Luck.
5. Mike Mayock is going to be torn.  He's next door to Andrew and 180 degrees away from RGIII.  He's going to struggle with this one.  I bet he loves both of these kids.
6. The same goes for Mel Kiper.
7. Todd McShay will side with RGIII
8. Trent Dilfer will continue to be Andrew Luck's biggest advocate.
9. Kurt Warner & Rich Eisen will side with Andrew Luck.

Oklahoma St. defeats Stanford 41-38 in OT

I hope all Ram-fans were watching the Fiesta Bowl this evening. Stanford's kicker missed two critical field goals which basically gave the victory to Oklahoma St.  Still, it was one hell of a battle.  However, the much bigger story is Justin Blackmon.  He scored three touchdowns in this game and announced that he will be entering the 2012 draft.  We knew it.  You can read about it and see it here.

This should settle all questions about who our Rams should select with that #2 pick.  I am hearing all manner of rubbish about the Rams selecting a corner with that pick.  You can shove that bullshit.  That pick is going to be used to weaponize Sam Bradford.  That means Justin Blackmon.  He's our kid.  We're taking him.  He will be catching passes from Sam Bradford.  Nobody needs him more than we do.

Justin Blackmon's current #10 ranking won't have anything to do with the decision making process.  You just take a look at that 67 yard catch and run he made against Stanford and you know that #10 ranking is absolutely wrong.  He's way too low.

I want to go on the record saying that Justin Blackmon is my absolute favorite kid in the 2012 draft.  In recent years, Jake Long, Tim Tebow, and A.J. Green have held that title.  This year it is Justin Blackmon.

In case you were wondering, Blackmon is a Capricorn kid, and Sirius 1.1 does show a very high set of synastry scores between me and Justin.  There is a Capricorn-Virgo thing here, but this doesn't have anything to do with my evaluation.  Even the average talent scout knows this kid is special. 

The Rams have better than a puncher's chance of drafting #1 in 2012

Ryan Van Bibber over at the Turf Show Times summed things up succinctly:

1. Right now the Rams and Colts are tied for the worst record in professional football at 2-13
2. One game remains.
3. Should both end in a tie, the Colts will draft first based on a weaker schedule.
4. The Colts play the Jags, and they have a reasonable shot at victory in a game that is almost meaningless for both.
5. The Rams play the 49ers.
6. The 49ers need to win in order to secure a bye-week and the #2 seeding.
7. The Rams's chances of victory are slim and none.  We have no reasonable expectations for victory in this game.

It logically follows that, at the moment, the Rams have better than a puncher's chance of drafting #1 overall in the 2012 draft.  Would this be a bonanza or would this be a disaster?  It depends on how you play it.  If you intend to deal that pick, and know how to stoke the fire, it could bring a king's ransom.  Many interested parties around the league will compete for the right to draft Andrew Luck. 

I contend the following: If we do not sack Billy Devaney at the end of this season, more disaster is sure to follow.  This dude has never succeeded in trading down in his career, and there is no reason to expect him to rape and pillage now.  Further, the guy couldn't draft a wide-receiver to save his life, and would probably never do such a thing with the top pick anyhow.  If we are to parlay this consolation prize into a chance to rebuild our team, the pick must be dealt, and dealt well.  This means Devaney has to go on Black Monday.

Off with his head!  To the gallows.  Burry him in an unmarked grave in the Nevada desert.

I want to restate my position that the team has not found its footing in 4 years primarily due to poor and sub-par drafts.  Billy Devaney is the prime suspect with Scout-Boss Lawrence McCutcheon in the #2 spot.  If we are to stop being a Bush-league organization, the first thing we have to do is acquire some men with a real eye for talent.  Getting a real-wheeler dealer would provide a double-bonus.

I, for one, tremble at the thought of Devaney being allowed to handle the 2012 draft.  It is terrifying to think of this guy orchistrating any deals or actions surrounding that #1 overall pick, especially with the stature of Andrew Luck drawing even more attention than ever to this process.  You're putting C4 in the hands of children without any adult supervision.

I sure hope the rumors of Devaney's immanent departure are correct.  Further, I sure hope we will offer the presidency to former HC Dick Vermeil.  Further, I sure hope the rumors of coach Jeff Fisher's arrival in town are totally wrong.  Let's put Dick Vermeil in charge, and let him pick his people.  

Two terrible suggestions for the Rams

Lately, two terrible suggestions for future moves have being sloshed about loosely in public.

Some have suggested that the Rams should select Andrew Luck if we should be so fortunate as to win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. The second terrible suggestion is that we can or will use EVP Kevin Demoff's family connections to get former Titans coach Jeff Fisher in the building.

I shit upon both suggestions, straight-up and no chaser. Shakes, nates, bollocks, nay, no, never, forget about it!

Fortunately, I think both propositions are completely irrelevant to the true situation. We have two victories, the Colts have none. I think the Colts will cruise to the #1 slot. We may well win the #2 slot. This is more than fine with me. It spares us from the morons who would give up on Sam Bradford already. Further, it gives us plenty of picking power to grab Justin Blackmon, the proper target of our draft.

I think Kevin Demoff is on his way out, ergo there is little chance his family connections will be involved in the new coaching search. Rule out Jeff Fisher. He's going to San Diego where he will enjoy a perfect Gemini/Sagittarius alliance with Philip Rivers.

If we are going after one of the so-called 'top coaching candidates', I would like that to be John Gruden. This would entail a reversion to the WCO, but worse things have happened. Gruden is the only so-called A-Lister that I would endorse.

Whatcha gonna do when Luckamania runs wild on you?

With his helmet off, he looks like the werewolf of London in full beast-mode.  I think it is pretty safe to say that he is the most hyped candidate in entire history of the NFL Draft.  He also happens to be a September 12th 1989 Virgo.  Whatcha gonna do when Luckamania runs wild on you?

In all seriousness folks, I do not recall a single draft prospect who got this kind of universal acclaim more than a year in advance of his hypothetical draft date.  The closest thing to it was probably the Hershel Walker case, but even the hype surrounding Walker wasn't this great.

I say hypothetical draft date because we should remember that Luck is not yet out of eligibility.  We are presuming he will enter the 2012 draft.  He could remain at Stanford for the 2012 college season.  Everyone in the world of sports will decry that last statement as absolutely crazy, but it is factually true.

As sure as we are all sitting here, we know Andrew Luck will be the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Who gets him is one of the most hotly debated subjects on Sports Talk Radio.  It is a popular subject.  Callers love to discuss this topic.  Not a single day goes by without 20 radio jocks discussing who will win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Through the first 8 weeks on the 2011 NFL season, there was plenty of discussion surrounding the Suck for Luck conspiracies that might be lurking and unfolding out there in the NFL.  Just how many teams were willing to pack-it-in and throw the entire 2011 season so they can secure their franchise's future by selecting Andrew Luck?  Incidentally, the big supposition there is that you can secure your franchise's entire future by selecting Andrew Luck.

Not a single bad word is spoken about Andrew Luck.  Nobody has anything critical to say about Luck.  All the QB alums from the NFL love this kid to death.  Steve Young, Trent Dilfer, John Elway, Joe Theisman, you name it:  They all say absolutely fabulous things about this kid.  They all seem to believe he is the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning or John Elway.

The one guy I haven't heard comment on Luck (yet) is Kurt Warner.  I look forward to his opinion with great interest.

What do I think about Andrew Luck?  Well... before saying it let me throw down a few provisos.

• You know how much I hate the entire concept of drafting a QB in the first round.
• You know how much I detest the notion drafting a QB at the very top of the first round.
• You know I rail against these ideas.
• You know I would rather take an offensive or defensive tackle with the top pick.
• You know how often these QBs go bust.
• As Jesus said, beware when all men speak well of you.
• Luck is a bit overrated, but it is hard not to be overrated when you are the most hyped candidate in the entire history of the NFL draft.

With all those cautions stated, I have to say, the hype is mostly legit.  The kid does look like the legitimate, genuine article.  I have not seen a flaw in his game.  I would have to take him at the top of the 2012 NFL draft, if I was the GM with that pick.  I would sweat the risk plenty, but I would have to take him.  

That's saying an awful lot about the kid when you consider how much I hate taking QBs in the first round. 

The kid finally made me comfortable with the hype during the very recent USC vs Stanford game.  USC fielded a very game and very talented team that was all-in.  They were absolutely determined to beat Stanford.

They jammed up Stanford's power running attack in the early going and broke out to 20-10 lead.  At that point all the news on the football wire stated that Stanford was in trouble.  The longest winning streak in the country was in jeopardy. USC was beating them down.

We all knew what was going to happen.  Stanford would have to abandon the run (for a time) and throw the football to catch up.  At that moment the thought on my mind was this:  "Okay kid, here we are.  This is the biggest moment of your life so far.  If you make it happen here, there will be no limit to the praise you'll garner.  If you fail here, critics will surface."

Luck started throwing the football all over the field.  Before you had time to get up and take a piss, Stanford scored a pair of touchdowns and the score was 24-20 Cardinal.  Luck disintegrated a 10 point Trojan lead with little or no difficulty.

Boy was I impressed.  He answered the clarion call like a champ.

The game wasn't over.  It turned into one hell of a shootout.  You know what happened.  Stanford won 56-48 in triple-overtime.  Every time Stanford needed Luck to show up, he did.  He had one interception late in the game, but he came right back from that to lead the Cardinal on a game tying drive.  Strangely, it made him look even better.  The kid leads a charmed life.

He impressed the hell out of me in that game, as did his counterpart Matt Barkley.  Incidentally, Matt Barkley just happens to be a September 8th, 1990 Virgo kid.

As we hear endless talk about the Second Coming of Jesus Christ... err... the 2012 drafting of Andrew Luck, just remember, there is risk in every prospect.  Nobody is a can't-miss kid.  This kid is just a very good risk.

The run of the mill gang, 2011

So, I was reading the NFL news this morning, and a fundamentally solid dude by the name of Steve Wyche informed us all that many NFL teams think that Blaine Gabbert is nothing special. You can read it for yourself here. Now, while Blaine is a very clean kid, and a very winsome likable guy, I am forced to agree... 100%.

Sorry world. I would much rather like the kid. There is nothing to dislike, on a personal basis. Understand this: If Andrew Luck were in this draft, you know who everybody would be clamoring for. You know Gabbert has risen because there is nobody else to occupy that vacuum at the top QB position. Nature abhors a vacuum.

As Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said last night on NFL Total Access, there are no Sam Bradfords in this year's draft. I was greatly heartened to discover that he sees things much as I do.

This brings us to point two of Wyche piece. He very strongly implies that Cam Newton could easily become the one memorable and hall of fame QB in this draft. I would add just one caveat: provided he doesn't bust outright.

Understand this: I would much rather like Cam Newton. Cam is a Taurus kid. He's an Earth brother. I love mobile, athletic kids, and I like the Spread. I do find him to be a winsome kid. I would greatly prefer to endorse him. Nevertheless, he is a 1 year wonder. As Mike Mayock is fond of saying: NFL Draft history has a landfill worth of 1 year wonder picks who went bust. This is a very risky kid. He is one of the riskiest picks in the entire draft, and that can be demonstrated with stone-cold actuarial statistics.

You pick him at your risk.

I want to state big picture one more time so draft mania doesn't sweep us out to sea its powerful riptide. The 2011 draft cannot hold a candle to the 2010 draft. This is strictly a run-of-the-mill, mediocre, average draft class. That may be giving these kids too much credit. 20 years from now, this may be a very forgettable draft class.

As Charlie Casserly has said, he can hardly remember the last time he has seen such a weak class of seniors. I would remind you that is true because we had such an amazing crop of juniors in last year's draft. I warned you that 2011 was going to be weak.

This is why I have a had a very difficult time getting motivated to write about this crop, especially for wider-public arenas such as BleacherReport.com. This just isn't an exciting class. It is difficult to get excited about the 2011 draft crop. It's like looking at bad porn. It just isn't exciting, although you think it should be.

This is why I continue to tell my fellow Ram-fans that the greatest good that could ever come out of this draft is a top-flight wide receiver. Even if we give up a sizable chunk of our draft to get A.J. Green or Julio Jones, it will be well worth the cost, and the best use of our ammo.

The only three guys who excite me are Von Miller, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green. All three of these guys are top-prospects, no matter what the year. They would have been high picks last year. They will be this year.

The rest of these first round guys are over-bought, over-priced, high risk, potential busts.

So Jim Harbaugh is now the head coach of the 49ers

Not a good move

As you know, Jim Harbaugh signed with the 49ers today. I am not particularly thrilled with this, although I am sure he is. Is this just a Ram fan disliking the arrival of a legit coach inside the division?

Nope, I don't think so. This ain't you papa's 49er organization. As you know, Eddie DeBartolo is long gone. His sister, Denise, is the real owner. She keeps pushing Josh out front of her to hide the fact that she is the true owner of the franchise, but she is--in point of fact--the owner. Believe you me, Denise is no Eddie.

Jason La Canfora explicitly said the some of Harbaugh's closest advisors warned him that the 49er front office is not configured for long-term coaching success. The 49ers have had a bunch of HCs since Denise took over. None of them has lasted long. She finished moochie pretty quickly. Several other high quality guys have come and gone. They have not had success. The reason is that the 49ers are now a Busch-league organization.

Sorry bitches, I just had to be honest about that fact.

I felt Harbaugh should stay at Stanford, but if he had to come out, he should have closed the deal with John Elway. I know that wouldn't suit Jim Harbaugh's location requirements very well, but it would have provided the best opportunities for success. The Broncos have had a bad moment over these past two seasons, but they are not a Busch league outfit. I still believe Pat Bowlen is one of the better owners in this league, and drastically better than Denise.

What are the prospects?

At the moment, the 49ers are still pretty deep in a state of denial about their present offensive unit. The truth is that they have three cornerstones of this offensive unit, none of whom get along well with each other. Vernon Davis, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree are know for their bickering and conflicts. They show lousy offensive chemistry.

Somehow, probably because the 49er organization wants this point de-emphasized in the media, all of these conflict incidents have been down-played. They wish to say that all their problems are simply the result of poor quarterbacking. Certainly, your quarterback problems are terrible, but tossing all the blame for your offensive problems on the QB is absolute bullshit. Even the best QB prospect is going to have problems playing with this back-biting rabble.

If you press the 49ers, they will admit that not all of their problems will be solved by acquiring a franchise QB. They admit that they also need a good offensive coordinator. Respectfully, I say that is bullshit as well. You had something like 7 offensive coordinators during the 6 year history Alex Smith, and none of them worked out. Oh, but that was Alex Smith's fault. Really? The way I recall it, Alex Smith wasn't even the starter during 3 of those 6 seasons. He could not have been the entire problem.

You need to come to grips with the fact that the 49ers offensive problems are deep and chemical. You are not going to fix it by simply getting Jim Harbaugh and some quarterback. No matter how sexy Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree look together, they are a lousy couple. They don't work together well. Now Frank Gore has two surgically reconstructed knees and a broken hip. How much longer do you think he has?

Frankly, I don't like Jim Harbaugh's prospects at all unless he rebuilds that offense. A full skill-position rebuild is necessary.

Harbaugh needs a QB like a man in the desert needs water

Whilst getting a franchise QB is not a panacea for the 49ers' offensive woes, it is absolutely essential that they get one. Who is that going to be? There aren't any on the market, unless perhaps you want Donovan McNabb. Now that Luck is out of the draft, I don't see any sure-fire options in this draft. Would they take a risk on Vince Young or Cam Newton? Somehow I doubt it. The QB prospects in the draft don't look that good this time around.

Do you think he might want to acquire Jimmy Clauson cheap? This is another young Virgo QB, but not nearly as athletic or smart as Andrew Luck. Yes, it is true, Clausen is a Virgo, and I am not into him. You might be better off with a baby-Taurus like Cam Newton, but I am not crazy about that choice either.

Are you thinking what I am thinking?

Now that Jim Harbaugh has taken the 49er job, I wonder if he is going make some phone calls and try to convince Andrew Luck to change his mind. The 49ers need a quarterback, and they need one badly. Harbaugh needs a QB and he needs one badly.

How would that do him any good? The 49ers don't have the top pick. Surely you are right about this, but as usual, the team at the top of the list and the bottom of the heap is ready to deal if you will enrich them. I bet a deal including Crabtree and Davis would bring that pick to the 49ers.

Right now, I don't like what I see in the tea leaves. This whole thing was a year premature. I think Harbaugh forced a situation that just ain't right.

So Andrew Luck is returning to Stanford

The entire NFL establishment is reacting with dismay to Andrew Luck's announcement that he is returning to Stanford for the 2011 season. He says he wants to finish his degree. Insiders say that there are still elements of his skill set that he wants to polish before entering the NFL.

I'm proud of you kid! You made the right call. Stay in school! I knew you were a smart guy when I saw your chart. It's the Virgo thing you and I share. You just proved yourself wiser than your years. You just earned my respect. Now don't waiver. Lock out these guys who are yammering at you.

The NFL establishment continues to coax Andrew, describing this as a high-risk financial decision. I don't think so. I bet he doesn't either. Even in the worst possible case scenario, Sam Bradford still wound up being the #1 pick in 2010. I doubt such a situation will develop in Andrew Luck's case. His offensive line is far better than Sam's was in 2009.

Why was Andrew right in making this decision? Only one of two scenarios are going to play out in the upcoming 2011 season. Either we are going to have a lock-out that screws everything, or we are going to have a rookie Salary cap. In either scenario, Luck stands to make far less money that the pundits would have you believe. It's more than he will make in college next season, but in the long run, that doesn't matter.

There is another far more profound reason why Andrew made the right choice. Andrew needs to think about his long-term future, not short-term gain. If he wants to make a run at the Hall of Fame, he needs set himself a strong foundation. Just about 90% of all underclass quarterbacks go bust in the NFL. There is some statistical noise in that figure, but it essentially holds true.

We all know why. The quarterback post requires uncommon maturity, intelectual development and skill development. In this process, age is a good thing. Like fine wine, you would be surprised what a year or two of additional aging will do for the quality of a college QB.

Andrew has had two fine seasons. One more should clench it for him. Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford have proven a Red-Shirt junior is just about as good as a senior. Next year will be better for him.

Now everything hindges on what Jim Harbaugh does. Sources say he is close to signing with the Miami Dolphins. I sure hope not. I love the Dolphins, and I like Jim Harbaugh. Still, I consider this a bad move. It just doesn't feel right. I don't think it is good for either party.

I hope Harbaugh will return to the Stanford Cardinal also. Those two should finish together, and enter the NFL together. There is a great deal of dynamism in their relationship. Together they form a pretty devestating combo. It would be good to keep them together.

The most popular NFL rebuilding strategy in 2011 is...

I have heard it said that several NFL teams, most specifically the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco 49ers are going to attempt to acquire Stanford's Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck as a package deal. This seems to be the most popular theory today vis-a-vis producing a quick turn around in your team's fortunes.

It seems like the entire NFL establishment is enthralled and mesmerized by the tremendous offensive chemistry of Harbaugh and Luck. They speak of these two as a dynamic duo like Batman and Robin. They all seem to think there is enough horse power in this duo to right just about any founding ship in the league.

If true, this is another feather in the cap of the Capricorn-Virgo synastry camp. Jim Harbaugh is a 12/23/1963 Capricorn. Capricorn is the cardinal leadership sign of the Earth clan. Andrew Luck is a 9/12/1989 Virgo. Virgo is Braniac sign of the Earth clan. Christ I feel old! I am less than 3 years younger than Harbaugh and I was already 23 and stationed in Germany in the U.S. Army on the day Andrew Luck was born!

Readers of my blog will know that Capricorn and Virgo go together like corn flakes and milk, like bread and butter, like peanut butter and jelly, like cream and coffee, like pork and beans, like the Internet and porn. We just can't help it. We were specifically engineered to work together. It just works. Even when the relationship is less than perfect, it still pays big dividends. This is one of the top match-ups on the Synastry board.

There have been other dynamic Capricorn and Virgo Coach-QB combos in NFL history. Chuck Noll is a Capricorn and Terry Bradshaw is a Virgo. Don Shula is a Capricorn and Dan Marino is a Virgo. Marty Schottenheimer and Drew Brees reversed the relationship a bit, as Marty is a Virgo and Drew is a Capricorn.

Once upon a time, I was teamed with a certain Argentinian Capricorn female at work. She was the project manager and I was the software developer. Dems was the best days that ever was... Of course, I could refuse her nothing, and she appreciated that greatly. I thought she was the greatest. She thought I was the greatest. I was inspired every day to go above and beyond, and not because she nagged me. There was a great dynamism there, and everybody noticed. Certain political enemies came to fear that dynamism, and they split us up. Break up the Yankees!

Years later, I'm still pissed off about this. If you want to know what really gets my blood boiling...

My take on Harbaugh-Luck is pretty simple. Interested parties inside the league are pretty well on track. Your hunch looks like it's on the money. Whenever Capricorn and Virgo get together, good things are sure to follow. If a dynamic Virgo Capricorn pair form a partnership, that's best partnership your going to find. You should keep them together. You will be ill-advised to split them up. Splitting them up could mess up both parties.

The 2011 Draft and the Cam Newton Mess

Prolog about the 2011 draft

Suddenly in the past two weeks, everybody is beginning to talk about the 2011 draft. I guess this correlates with the first series of mathematical eliminations from the playoff picture. Once your 2010 season is (virtually) over, and you’re just playing out the string, there is nothing to look forward to but the draft. In a sense, it is reasonable to start talking about the draft.

Unfortunately, the things being said about the 2011 draft are mostly poppycock. As usual, there is far too much talk about the QB position. I hope to install a circuit breaker on some of this sanguine talk. Much like the New York Yankees, I hope I can get you to sip the reality potion.

And the #1 prospect of 2011 is: a very shitty draft indeed!

That’s right! You heard it from me first. The top prospect in 2011 is a shitty draft. Why? Let me tell you about it.

1. The 2010 draft was an ultra bonsai affair, quite probably the best draft since 1983. 2010 was rich because it looted the 2011 Draft. Loads of quality underclassmen declared themselves eligible for the 2010 draft.

2. The record numbers of underclassmen who declared themselves eligible in 2010 did so explicitly because they feared a rookie salary cap in 2011.

3. Unless the 2011 draft can loot the 2012 draft, it is going to be a very poor crop indeed. Will we see another strong crop of under classmen entering the NFL draft this year? Fuck no.

4. On the first horn of the dilemma is the fact that the NFL moves closer and closer to a lock-out every day. The owners have already spelled out a detailed plan for a partial shut-down of the league. They will go into hibernation mode to conserve money. In response, the players have voted to conditionally decertify the Union if a lockout occurs. This is legal maneuver that permits litigation. In response, the league published a plan to refund season ticket holders if there is a lockout. In response, the Union informed its players that they should save and not spend their last two paychecks of the year to get them through 2011. We are much further down the road to disaster than you think.

5. On the second horn of the dilemma is the fact that the Union is fine with the idea of a rookie salary cap. Vets don’t like it when rookies get $78m contracts, with $50 million guaranteed. Whether you know it or not, the rookie salary cap is not a controversial issue in this negotiation. All inside sources say the players favor a rookie cap. If they can work out the other issues, like an 18 game schedule, the rookie cap will be an automatic part of the agreement.

If I am a junior or a sophomore eligible for this year’s draft, I am officially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If I enter the draft, I may get locked out, or I may get capped. In either case, I am not happy with the situation. I may lose my senior year of football only to be locked out and make no (zip, zero, zilch, nada) money. I may return to work for what my immediate predecessors would consider shitty contract.

Sorry folks, that just isn’t much incentive to leave school. Unless I am a senior, I am staying in school. When you look at it from the micro-economic perspective, I see little reason to believe that the 2011 draft will loot the 2012 draft. The motivation to declare for the draft just isn’t there. This is going to be a senior prom affair, with a few underclassmen guests.

Based on all of these points, I think this will be the worst draft since 1987. It just so happens that 1987 was the last strike-afflicted year. That is not a co-inky-dink. There is a causal link here.

The NFL Never, Never, Never learns

There is a Mosaic law, stenciled by the finger of God on stone which states clearly “Thou shalt not take a quarterback in the 1^st round!” That’s right, it’s mortal sin to take a QB in the 1^st round of the draft. Why do I say this?

According to the actuarial tables, a high 1^st round pick should have a better than 50% chance of making it in the NFL. More than 70% of all Senior QBs drafted in the 1^st round, fail to become franchise QBs in the NFL. Yes, it’s true ladies and germs. Test me and see if I am wrong. That is worse than the average results for non-quarterback 3^rd round picks. About 66% of 3^rd round picks go bust in this league.

When you draft a QB in the 1^st around you automatically down-grade your first round pick to a lower value than a third round pick. That is a statistical fact, not a theory. It is a posteriori conclusion, it is not a priori notion. It is a conclusion from research, not a theoretical explanation of data.

If you know anything at all about probability and outcome in mathematics, or risk assessment in economics, you know that using a 1^st rounder on a quarterback is the same value as trading a 1^st round pick for a 3^rd round pick. That is a very stupid thing to do.

Your Rams just struck gold in the 1^st round, right?

The automatic response is to hit me with the et tu fallacy, and remind me that the Rams just took Sam Bradford and did fine. You might remember that I had plenty of objections to that move. Devaney turned out to be right. I turned out to be wrong. We both got lucky. In any case, I would not recommend this ‘strategy’ to anyone.

The fact remains that a 1^st round QB is a very bad economic and logistical risk in the draft.

At this point it looks like we got away with murder… in broad daylight… captured on video tape. I don’t know how we managed to do that, and my mind still boggles over this clean get-away. It was the triumph of emotion over reason. It was the triumph of a gutsy call over scientific football.

Still, I would never recommend attempting murder to anyone. Hang on a sec there Dave, did you just equivocate drafting a QB in the first round with attempting to get away with murder? Yep, that’s exactly and precisely it. Drafting a QB in the first round is like trying to get away with murder.

And now for the Andrew Luck and Cam Newton bullshit

Let me begin with a recap: If I am an underclassman, I’m staying in school. I am not entering the draft. Understand that 90% of all non-senior QBs go bust in the draft. Understand that there is a lockout on the horizon. Understand that if you take your 90% risk, and stare-down the lockout, you may win a shitty contract as your reward for bravery. Not much incentive there, eh boys? Play the percentages and stay in school.

Looking at it from the perspective of an NFL GM, I think you are absolutely crazy if you take either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. Luck is a redshirt sophomore. He’s too young. Throw that one back. Let him grow some more. Forget about him. I am not taking a 10% chance and a 90% risk on him.

Cam is effectively a redshirt junior, and he’s carrying plenty of baggage. Here we have the kid who’s destined to be the most controversial figure in football during both 2010 and 2011. I’ll give you my two cents about Cam, which ain’t worth a nickel.

Mel Kiper is hyped about Cam Newton. In that one fact alone, you have all the information you will ever need to stay away from the kid. Mel is the practically perfect reverse barometer. Remember, this was the fool who advocated JaMarcus Russell like there was no tomorrow. Mel was the guy who stated that JaMarcus would be a Top 5 NFL Quarterback within 3-5 years. Nope, he’s out of the league. In his wildest statements ever, Mel said JaMarcus had true ”John Elway ability.”

If a man could be burned at the stake for being wrong about the draft, certainly Mel would be charcoal by now.

Colin Cowherd is also a Cam Newton advocate. Understand that Cowherd offers you nothing on the draft except regurgitated Mel Kiper takes. When you get a draft opinion from Cowherd, you are getting a second hand, predigested Kiper take. As an added bonus, Cowherd freely admits that he liked Ryan Leaf, the guy most frequently cited as the biggest NFL draft bust in history.

Just one more special bonus: Both Kiper and Cowherd were stoked up about Jimmy Clausen last year. Insiders say that the Carolina Panthers are interested in acquiring both John Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in a package deal. If so, what does that tell you about Clausen? What does this tell you about the Panthers’ organization? Nothing good in any case. It’s a train wreck disaster going down in Charlotte. Clausen is a part of that train wreck. So are Kiper and Cowherd.

Why I am not taking Cam Newton

History teaches us that kids with loose morals turn into tragedies once they get a couple of million bucks in their pockets. This has absolutely nothing to do with on-the-field performance. This has everything to do with the police blotter.

If you interviewed all 32 NFL GMs, I guarantee you that their #1 fear of a prospect lies in how he will respond to sudden wealth. They worry about whether their chosen kid has the moral fiber to withstand sudden, massive, unbelievable prosperity. GMs worry about whether sudden wealth will turn the chosen one into a drug-fueled party monster. There are all kinds of things that walk hand-in-hand and side-by-side with being one of those rich NFL Party Monsters. This is the #1 risk for just about any high-round pick in the NFL Draft.

In response to this kind of attack, defenders of Cam Newton frequently cite the fact that Cam had both parents in the home and his daddy (Cecil) is a preacher. Please… it is to laugh.

We all know that there are two types of preachers in this world: sent by God and not of God. You got some who are in it for humanitarian reasons, and you have some who are in it for the money. You have some who are other-worldly, and you have some who are very worldly indeed.

What would you think of a preacher who goes to a college or university and makes a point-blank illegal Payola demand on behalf of his son? By all accounts, Cecil Newton is a Deliverance preacher. Do you know what that means? He rebukes Satan and casts out devils for contributions… errr… the tithe. You do know that this is something Benny Hinn and Ken Copeland specialize in? They cast out Satan in deliverance services all the time. Somehow Satan always gets back inside in time for the next show. These two Deliverance preachers are also big advocates of Payola.

No folks, I am staying away from Cam Newton. I love athletic running QBs, and I am staying away from Cam. Stolen laptops? Cheating on tests? On the verge of getting kicked out of Florida? Bumping down to the CC level? Asking for payola on his return? Just one year of productivity on the major college level? This doesn’t sound like the sort of moral fiber that withstands massive wind-fall profits.

Some have compared Cam Newton to JaMarcus Russell. Dan Fouts did this recently on the Dan Patrick show. Is that supposed to inspire confidence in anyone?

Others have compared Cam to Vince Young. I think that is more apt, but do understand that Vince Young’s career is on the bubble right now. He lacks mental toughness, the ability to deal with adversity, and work through issues with his coach. To be precise, he can’t take it when people boo him. Again, this isn’t good confidence material.

Finally, many have compared Cam to Tim Tebow for a lot of reasons. Understand this: TD Tim had four squeaky clean years of high productivity at Florida before graduating as a senior. He was beloved by all, and criticized by no one. In terms of actual production, Cam is a one-year wonder more comparable to Ryan Leaf than Tim Tebow.

If I am in the market for a quarterback, and boy I’m sure glad we aren’t, I am looking in another direction.

A little retrospective

How good does the Bradford pick look today? Not only are our Rams set with a solid franchise QB, but we are set to enjoy a free pass in 2011. How good is that? I think it is just fucking fantastic that no one expects us to participate in the QB debate this year. We can now enjoy our right to completely ignore the entire Andrew Luck & Cam Newton controversy. Everybody will understand completely.

If we had avoided a QB entirely in 2010, something I knew we would not do, there would be tremendous political pressure on the Rams to select either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton (should they be available). Certainly we would not be 6-6 and in the NFC West hunt this year. We would have another high pick more pressure than ever to select a QB.

Now we don’t have the slightest worry in the world about that. All is well. Devaney’s call is looking better and better every day.