The Rams have better than a puncher's chance of drafting #1 in 2012

Ryan Van Bibber over at the Turf Show Times summed things up succinctly:

1. Right now the Rams and Colts are tied for the worst record in professional football at 2-13
2. One game remains.
3. Should both end in a tie, the Colts will draft first based on a weaker schedule.
4. The Colts play the Jags, and they have a reasonable shot at victory in a game that is almost meaningless for both.
5. The Rams play the 49ers.
6. The 49ers need to win in order to secure a bye-week and the #2 seeding.
7. The Rams's chances of victory are slim and none.  We have no reasonable expectations for victory in this game.

It logically follows that, at the moment, the Rams have better than a puncher's chance of drafting #1 overall in the 2012 draft.  Would this be a bonanza or would this be a disaster?  It depends on how you play it.  If you intend to deal that pick, and know how to stoke the fire, it could bring a king's ransom.  Many interested parties around the league will compete for the right to draft Andrew Luck. 

I contend the following: If we do not sack Billy Devaney at the end of this season, more disaster is sure to follow.  This dude has never succeeded in trading down in his career, and there is no reason to expect him to rape and pillage now.  Further, the guy couldn't draft a wide-receiver to save his life, and would probably never do such a thing with the top pick anyhow.  If we are to parlay this consolation prize into a chance to rebuild our team, the pick must be dealt, and dealt well.  This means Devaney has to go on Black Monday.

Off with his head!  To the gallows.  Burry him in an unmarked grave in the Nevada desert.

I want to restate my position that the team has not found its footing in 4 years primarily due to poor and sub-par drafts.  Billy Devaney is the prime suspect with Scout-Boss Lawrence McCutcheon in the #2 spot.  If we are to stop being a Bush-league organization, the first thing we have to do is acquire some men with a real eye for talent.  Getting a real-wheeler dealer would provide a double-bonus.

I, for one, tremble at the thought of Devaney being allowed to handle the 2012 draft.  It is terrifying to think of this guy orchistrating any deals or actions surrounding that #1 overall pick, especially with the stature of Andrew Luck drawing even more attention than ever to this process.  You're putting C4 in the hands of children without any adult supervision.

I sure hope the rumors of Devaney's immanent departure are correct.  Further, I sure hope we will offer the presidency to former HC Dick Vermeil.  Further, I sure hope the rumors of coach Jeff Fisher's arrival in town are totally wrong.  Let's put Dick Vermeil in charge, and let him pick his people.  

We have apparent confirmation that Coach Spags and Devaney are on the Hot Seat

Today, November 28th, 2011 is the day when we got our first apparent confirmation that Coach Spags and GM Devaney are on the Hot Seat.  The word comes from none other than Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network, and it was published in print on the NFL's own website.

You can read it here.  SB Nation has another piece here.

We can now say, with honesty, that a serious source indicates that these two are in trouble.  La Canfora deals in rumor and innuendo, but he is seldom wrong.  I have gone hard against him a couple of times (in the case of the Donovan McNabb trade) and I wound up with egg on my face.  He was right, and I was wrong.  This guy doesn't piss in the wind.  If Jason says it, it has to be taken seriously.

There is just one caveat:  Farmers Field in Los Angeles.  Everybody knows the Rams are the #1 contender to play in Farmers Field.  Everybody knows AEG Productions are looking for two teams and not one.  How else do you get the full 1.2 billion stipulated in the Farmers Insurance contract?  They aren't going to leave that money on the table without a fight and half to get it.

With two teams headed to Los Angeles, it hard to imagine a scenario in which the Rams aren't one of them.  You just haven't heard it from officials sources due to the gag order issued by NFL HQ in New York.  Yep, that's right, the Commish done issued a gag order.  Keyshawn Johnson spilled the beans about that one on ESPN Radio.

I seldom discuss this subject because it upsets my St. Louis brethren so deeply.  Believe me, I know how they feel.  We went through it in 1994 here.

In short, La Canfora eludes to the often whispered conspiracy theory that Stan Kroenke will allow this inept front office to struggle for one more year before executing a 100% rebuild of the organization on the West Coast.  It's not so much that it will drive the box office revenues down, thus permitting a move.  Rather, its a question of how to rebuild the team most effectively in concert with a big move across country.

As I have said before, I would prefer that Spags stay, but I am increasingly alone on an island.  Most fans have had it with his offensive & special teams conservatism, as well as his clock management skills.  Perhaps it is because I am an old nose tackle who wished he had played in Spags' 4-3 scheme, but I think well of him.  He will be rehired immediately by the Giants, I can assure you of that.  They just haven't been the same without him.

Still, If Stan Kroenke does what I suspect, he will clean and flush the front office this off-season.  A new management team will be given instructions to do everything necessary to prepare the team for the move to the West Coast.  Stan may even appoint a new Team President, something he has not yet done.  The post has been vacant since former President John Shaw snuck out the back door.  

I, for one, would add my voice to those clamoring for Dick Vermeil's appointment as Team President.  Let's make him the boss, and let him pick his management team.

The Greatest Show on Turf

Many will complain that I should not put the Greatest Show on Turf in my series covering the NFL's greatest all-time teams. They will protest that I am being a homer. Don't do that until I skip the Patriots. Then you can call me a homer.

As we have heard many times, and many more this past weekend, the Greatest Show on Turf was probably the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen. It's the only offense to score more than 500 points in 3 consecutive seasons. Although it only resulted one world championship, we did make it to two Super Bowls. We should have won that second one.

Cheating bastards...

What was the secret behind that amazing and astounding chemistry? How could they be that dynamic? Well, why don't you just have a good look at the general synastry picture here. I know my Pentecostal brethern Kurt Warner and Issac Bruce would not approve of this analysis, but let's set that aside for the moment.

Look at the number of key players who are water signs:

1. Kurt Warner (Cancer)
2. Marshall Faulk (Pisces)
3. Issac Bruce (Scorpio)
4. Ricky Proehl (Pisces)
5. Orlando Pace (Scorpio)

Let's not forget about Dick Vermeil who is also a Scorpio. What about the rest? Well, Roland Williams, our much forgotten Tight End, is a Taurus. He goes great with everybody.

The most interesting fact about this unit is that Az-Zahir Hakim and Torry Holt are both Geminis, and they both had tremendous chemistry with Kurt Warner.

Sirus 1.1 says Kurt and Torry are totally compatible. Consider the following numbers.

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 257

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 103

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 164

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 119

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence: 0

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 172

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 92

The story with Az Hakim is pretty good, too.

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 371

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 31

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 9

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 192

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence: 39

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 122

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 36

What is the key to Kurt's outstanding chemistry with Gemini? First, Water and Air can mix with some difficulty. Second, Kurt is a 1st day Cancer. He was born right on the edge of Gemini. Finally, Kurt has a considerable amount of Air in his chart.

The offensive line is a remarkable mixture when you look at it. Gruttadauria and Nutten are 180 degree opposites, and you know the story about opposites. They attract and complement one another tremendously. Likewise, Fred Miller and Adam Timmerman are 180 degree opposites. Orlando was actually the odd man out on this unit, although he is all the more compatible with everyone else on the team.

Consider Coach Dick Vermeil (Scorpio) and Mike Martz (Taurus). They too are 180 degree opposites, and there was incredible dynamism between them. We were never the same after we lost Coach Vermeil. It was when these two were together that we had the best of the motivational disciplinarian and the mad scientist. Incidentally, both are super-compatible with their skill position players.

One more point: Martz (Taurus) is side-by-side with Hakim (Gemini) and Holt (Gemini) in spring time. This usually leads to good relations.

One of these days I am going to write a piece about what 1999 meant to me. It's crazy. It's so crazy, I still wonder if some of you will believe me. This is why I hesitate to blog about it.

Bouy... starting to doubt these Synastry tea leaves

After having several weeks of fun comparing my chart to those of innumerable famous and not-so-famous women in this world, I decided to train Kepler 7.0 on some of the football personalities I seem to pay so much attention to.

The results seem pretty askew from reality, or at least the way I perceive it. You never know about people until you work and live with them for real, so who can say?

Still I find these reports questionable.

For the record here is the key to decoding these scores:

Above 150 is very high. This trait is VERY strong!

125 to 150 is above average. The trait is strong.

115 to 125 is slightly above average. The trait is slightly strong.

85 to 115 is average.

75 to 115 is slightly below average. The trait is slightly weak.

50 to 75 is weak.

50 or lower is VERY weak!

Billy Devaney and David Leon

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 229

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 85

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 117

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 70

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 96

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 142

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 135

Shocking... but then again it is not. Devaney has his sun in Pisces and his Mercury in Aquarius. That is very formative. I know these people well. My brother Ben, my cousin Ana Julia, my former business partner John Z, my favorite evangelical preacher Jimmy Swaggart, and couple other you wouldn't know. All of these people have their Sun in Pisces and Mercury in Aquarius.

Yep that's right, Devaney and Swaggart...

While somewhat low, the mutal kindness is higher than I would have predicted. The aggression score is lower than average, which is remarkable.

For the record, Pisces is in my 7th house. This means my business partners and my future wife are all supposed to come from the Pisces clan. Certainly, several of my realtives do. Virgo/Mercury is one of only two signs that can run with Aquarius/Mecury.

Steve Spagnuolo and David Leon

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 229

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 137

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 118

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 43

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 78

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 80

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 88

Wow... pretty good scores there. No wonder I like the guy. Incidentally, Spags is a major league Sagittarius. It may not be friendly, but it isn't violent either.

David Leon and Dick Vermeil

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 29

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 131

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 3

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 115

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 377

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 176

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 132

Damn... That breaks my heart and wounds my soul to the core. Of all the guys I have held in high esteem over my life as a football fan, Dick Vermeil is pretty damn close to #1 on my list. It kills me to think that we have no mutual understanding and aggression score of 377. The mutual success score is reasonably strong. Understand that this could flip the aggression score and make it a success score. If so, that score is outstanding.

The temperment is totally different though. He is a very emotionally expressive dude. I am not. I have a poker face in pressure situations that just won't quit. Dick is not like that.

I admire the guy so much I doubt we would have that level of violence, but you never know until you work together under pressure.

David Leon and Stan Kroenke

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 0

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 32

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 131

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 67

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 316

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 140

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 157

Wow... well, he is a billionaire. They say these fellows have a totally different mindset all together. Working with them and thinking with them is ostensibly like working hand-in-hand with aliens from another world. The aggression score is once again disturbing.

They say fights happens when strong willed people with strongly held ideas get together...

Dick Vermeil and Stan Kroenke

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 143

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 187

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 100

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 68

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 264

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 146

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 151

Look at 'dem apples. They have pretty damn good scores until you get to kindness and aggression. Whilst not as bad as my scores, those don't look too... pleasant. Nevertheless, you can see why there was ground there for a successful business partnership.

Perhaps it is just the very nature of the beast. Football is so damn aggressive, violent, and competitive that you just can't have an afternoon tea party environment, even in the best situation. The pressure is horrendous.

Dick Vermeil and Sam Bradford

Category Totals

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 171

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 182

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 161

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 44

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 196

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 180

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 50

Interesting... the two Scorpions have very good scores together until we get to kindness and aggression. The mutual success score is so good that it suggests that the aggression score will flip and become success. If I was Kroenke, I would take note. But then Kroenke is not interested in any of these things.

Just for shits and giggles I decided to throw in a few NFL Network personalities to see how this works out.

Rich Eisen and Jamie Dukes

Category Totals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 29

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 167

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 98

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 266

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 96

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 176

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 109

The similarity of interests and temperment score should send up red flags. Perhaps their temperments are different, but I suspect they have many common interests. They do seem successful and pleasant together. There is some adventure and surprises in their business. There may be some aggression and competition, but it is below average. I would agree with that.

Rich Eisen and David Leon

Category Totals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 171

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 12

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 80

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 152

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 0

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 61

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 107

Wow... very similar interests and temperment. No success and no aggression. Interesting...

Jamie Dukes and David Leon

Category Totals

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Similarity of Interests and Temperament: 0

2. Mutual Success and High Achievement: 117

3. Problem Solving, Communication, and Mutual Understanding: 104

4. Mutual Kindness, Friendliness, Pleasantness, and Peace: 121

5. Aggressiveness, Competition, Power, Success, or Violence 101

6. Adventurousness, Surprises, Disturbances: 126

7. Shared Creativity, Imagination, and Inspiration: 110

Wow... now that aught to throw the whole scheme in doubt. How in the world can I have a shared interest score of 0 with Jamie Dukes? I guarentee you that isn't correct. The rest of the scores are moderate average scores, but the top score must be wrong. I have always felt a great kinship with Jamie Dukes. I think we think similary. Not the same, but similarly. Since we are both interested in football and bariatric surgery, the score must be higher than zero. I guarentee you we have some shared interests. That just has to be wrong.

Now he was a center and I was a nose tackle...

The Bradford era begins now

Another screed about the Rams. I fear this will go down as just another screed about the Rams. It is like being a man standing on top of wooden post in the middle of Indian Ocean, shouting at the top of your lungs, but there is no one around for thousands of miles, and nobody is paying any attention.

I have shocking news for all Rams fans: A.J. Feeley was injured during the 2nd preseason game against Cleveland. He jacked up his thumb and his elbow on his passing arm. A defensive lineman blasted him just as he was throwing. The strange thing is that the O-Line just can't keep those QBs clean in St. Louis.

Gheez... how the hell did that happen? Gheez, I wonder why?

We still await the results of the MRI, but it took only 2 preseason games for the first significant QB injury to manifest itself in 2010. So now the Sam Bradford era begins. How long is he going to last? Not longer than 7 weeks in the initial campaign.

Folks, I am not the crazy one in the room. You are, if you think it will go longer. Have a look at the CBS Sports forums here:

"Sammy is already taking a beating"

"Bump it up for 50 sacks by midseason"

"Not many starting rookies from week 1 make all the way through"

"Starting rookies with a porous offensive line could even spell the doom for the rest of their careers, much like David Carr""

"Watching Bradford trying to survive is scarier than having Freddie Kruger on a rampage."

Folks, the objective world sees things much as I do. I knew this would happen *_before_* the draft. I knew this was the way it would play out. Any rational, honest man watching the Rams play for the past 30 years must, perforce, come to the same conclusion. I vehemently objected to selecting Sam because I knew damn well we were (and remain) utterly unprepared to receive him.

I also knew that throwing him head first into the shark tank (naked as a jay bird) would very probably result in David Carr syndrome. Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I just don't think you take a kid #1 to turn right around and flush his career down the crapper.

Most serious fans of the NFL, who are objectively detached from the Rams, don't think Sam is going to make it through this season. Many don't think he will make it in this league specifically because the Rams drafted him.

The cheerleaders and apologists have just one thing to say: Don't panic. Let me spell this out for you and make it perfectly clear. This is not a question of panic. It is a matter of knowing the unavoidable eventuality here.

Right all the time... Sometimes I hate being right all the time. It's a mostly a matter of hating the state of psychological denial the organization is in.

It's not a matter of being a swammy or a guru or being clairvoyant, or having psychic powers, or an astrology chart. You just have to be brutally honest with yourself. You gotta look yourself in the mirror in the morning and say "You know, Dave, you could stand to be a little more authentic and honest with yourself and other people today."

Most people already regard me as one brutally honest bastard. I still say that to myself each and every mornings.

Self deception is a hell of thing. It is worse than self pity. You are never going to make any progress in this world if you are not absolutely brutally honest with yourself about where you stand. The first step in the 12 step program is come to a full realization that you have a real problem. If you don't do that, no other steps towards recovery are possible.

Right now, I see the Rams locked in death spiral. A few years ago, we had one of the worst management situations the NFL has ever seen with VP Jay Zygmunt and GM Charlie Armey. The forces of Zygmunt, Armey, Linehan utterly destroyed the Greatest Show on Turf. Georgia dies. Now the Rams are between ownership regimes. The Rams now have three minority owners, which is to say that the Rams have no owner. In the interregnum between owners, Billy Devaney has taken command of the ship.

The Rams flush everybody in 2008-2009. We make a bunch of additional bad draft decisions. Then the Rams make a really bad decision in hiring Pat Shurmur, possibly the worst offensive coordinator currently employed in the league. In 2009 the Rams field an offense more reminiscent of the 1976-1977 Bucs than anything else. They look like keystone cops at a Chinese fire drill as they score a total of 175 points in 16 contests. That's a mere 10.9 points per game folks.

Why did that happen? You can start with the fact that the Rams has a quarterback rotation by medical triage. The least wounded guy started. All Ram quarterbacks got injured. All Ram quarterbacks missed time. By the end of the 2010 season we had a banged-up 7th rounder starting at QB. Buldger finished with a broken leg.

Given so many QB injuries over the past several years, and so many offensive line injuries, you might think that some brilliant fellow, paid millions of dollars a year to get the facts straight, might tweak on the logical inference: The offensive line requires a full-scale Marshall-Plan. When I say Marshall-Plan, I'm not talking about drafting a guy in the second round and grabbing a former undrafted free agent who has been cut by his last two teams. I'm talking about a full-scale Marshall program to rebuild the line with All-Pro and Pro Bowl talent. By that I mean guys like Alan Faneca.

Did Devaney get that right? NOPE! Devaney does the cheap and easy thing: He blames the quarterback for our offensive woes. Buldger is responsible for the Rams offensive problems. The Rams cut Bulger and draft Sam Bradford. This works well with ignorant fans. The quarterback always gets too much credit: Too much blame for a loss, and too much glory for victory. Smart fans know better than to believe this pile of crap.

Let me think... You go through one era of absolutely terrible offensive production due to (A) injured/fragile QBs and (B) a very poor offensive line. You don't fix the O-Line. You flush the toilet on one fragile QB and select a new fragile QB (who is surgically repaired already) and you expect everything to change and get better.

SMART! DAMN SMART!

Buldger failed because the Rams allowed his receiver corp to dwindle down to shit, and his line to dwindle down to shit. Now you stick Sam Bradford in nearly the same pile of shit and you expect him to succeed where Buldger failed?

STUPID! ABSOLUTELY STUPID!

You cannot convince me that there is any rhyme or reason to that rebuilding program. There is not the slightest trace quantity of logic in this program. Ergo, I have no confidence in the current rebuilding program. I lost confidence in Devaney shortly after the 2010 draft finished on that Sunday evening.

Some have suggested that there is perfect rhyme and reason to this program. You just have to switch Paradigm. There is an NFL Draft philosophy known alternately as Assism or Buttism that states "A college players value in the draft is exactly equal to the number of asses he will put in the seats." There are a number of corollaries to this philosophy. Big, ugly, sweaty, dirty, smelly offensive linemen don't put any butts in the seats. The Rams found that out last year when they finished 29th in attendance.

Now drafting a QB is an entirely different proposition all-together. That will put some asses in the seats. This is a very splashy, A-List, box office, public relations move. It's something a casual (read ignorant) fan can get into and get behind. It will bring people into the stadium. It just might help with the attendance figures.

But what if this isn't a sound strategy for building a future winner? Many denounce Assism as lousy blueprint for building a quality winning program. I certainly do. What if you need big, ugly, smelly, dirty, filthy, foul, nasty offensive linemen who won't put any butts in the seats? What if that is what you really need? You better sack up your nuts, and a find enough nad to go to New York and select some offensive linemen.

There are rumors in the wind that Dick Vermeil will return as President and possibly GM of the Rams, if Mr. Kroenke should complete his acquisition of the Rams. If that happens I will fall on my face and weep tears of joy. You have no idea how much I want to see Dick Vermeil return. You have no idea how bitter I was after he left, or was pushed out, or retired, or whatever.

Until then, it is the interregnum of our discontent.

Sam, if they make me the boss, I promise you a full-scale Marshall Plan for the offensive line. I doubt that you and Steve will object to that notion.

On the death of Coach John Wooden

At the moment every UCLA Bruin is a bit shaken up. Coach John Wooden, the emblem and identity of our Alma Mater has died at the age of 99. This is not news. ESPN has been going wall-to-wall with this for some 18 hours now. It is well, they should. Even with the NBA finals in progress, there is no bigger story than this at the moment.

Not since Bear Bryant died has a university lost an icon like this... but even the great Bear was not like this. I say that with all due respect to a coaching legend in my favorite sport.

If you listen to some of the praise they are heaping on Coach Wooden, it would seem impossible to believe, if you didn't know or understand what he accomplished. They call him the George Washington and Abraham Lincoln of NCAA Basketball. They call him the greatest coach ever, regardless of sport. They call him the figure that towers above all other coaches in basketball history. They are unwilling to place Red Auerbach and/or Phil Jackson in John Wooden's class.

One coach referred to him as the Rain God, sitting on a cloud above the rest of the coaches in Basketball sprinkling little bits of wisdom over them all. No?!?! Yes, I heard the man speaking on ESPN. Seems outrageous? Maybe... Maybe not.

I know Coach Wooden as the man who built UCLA... quite literally. If you look at landscape photos of UCLA in the year 1960 and then look at very similar photos from similar angles in year 1980 you will see an astounding difference. UCLA went from an interesting collection of buildings on 411 acres of dirt to a metropolis/metroplex.

The level of construction that occurred during those 20 years was amazing. Believe me, that burst of construction was not financed by the State of California or the City of Los Angeles. Maybe they contributed a bit to the pot, but that money came from Coach John Wooden's basketball program. The TV revenues and the product licenses brought tens of millions of dollars into our university, and that money built the UCLA we know today.

The 13 libraries we have, the medical school which is renown throughout the world, the gymnasium which bear Coach Wooden's name, the giant student union we enjoyed... All of that came from Coach Wooden's basketball program.

The thing we love about Wooden is that he did it the right way. He was a Gentleman's Gentleman. He was of the highest moral fiber. He embodied the best of old-fashioned saintly values. He did that in a city we frequently call Sin City. He always won the right way. He never won the dirty way. He was an astounding guy.

One of the things I loved about Dick Vermeil is that he seemed to be a little chip off the old block. He seemed more than a little bit like football John Wooden. This was probably due to the fact that Coach Vermeil was a UCLA coach and during the peak of Coach Wooden's run. I am willing to bet that some of Coach Wooden rubbed off on Coach Vermeil during that time. When he (we) won the Super Bowl in 1999, we did it the right way, with a band of excellent men. I like to believe our 1999 team was a little twig off the Wooden tree.

Los Angeles has lost of two of its greatest sports figures this year. Ram defensive tackle Merin Olsen was the first. Now Coach Wooden. These guys were two of our greatest; arguably the greatest. We still have some great ones. Kareem, Magic and Worthy still live. David Deacon Jones and Jack Youngblood still live. We still have Steve Garvey and Mike Socia. Of course, Kobe has many decades ahead, we all hope.

Still... this has been a rough year.

The NFL's Top 10 myths

As I said before I love the Top 10 series.  I usually agree with most of the list.  I may feel this guy or that thing is a bit over or under-rated, but I agree with the list as a whole.  The experts interviewed are usually frank about the controveries, so disagreements & arguments are covered well.

Never, never, never in my life have a I so vehemently diagreed with a program as I did with the Top 10 Myths.  That list was mostly bullshit.  The top two (2) so-called myths were absolute and complete bullshit.  They were controversial points on film.  The experts interviewed for the program vehemently disputed these points.  Some were for it.  Some were against it.

For the purpose of this Blog entry, I want to focus on the #1 so-called myth:  The Prevent Defense prevents you from winning.  This saying has been an axiom for years now.  Just about all NFL fans feel this way.  Most veteran defenders feel this way also.  How in fucking hell did Sabol and company managed to identify this great hueristic truth as a myth?

I want to clarify exactly why this is not a myth.  I also want to explore why this may have been a case of unqualified confusion.

What is the Prevent Defense?

The PD is a special defensive package and strategy that some head coaches and defensive coordinaters have favored through time.  When you get a big lead, say 14 to 17 points, you change your defensive formation and objectives.  

1. You rush 3 men.  

2. You drop 8 men into pass coverage

3. The 8 men in coverage play a soft-zone.

4. You make sure two of those 8 men and super-deep.  All the way back in the end-zone, perhaps.

5. You try to guard the sidelines and prevent ball carriers from getting out of bounds.

6. You never allow a deep pass.

7. You concede 6, 7 or 8 yard gains in the middle of the field.

8. You hit hard and tackle immediately.

9. You force the enemy to creep down field with the clock running

10. You inflict punishment, and try to create a turn-over.

This is the strategy of the Prevent Defense.  Conceptually, it all seems very sound.  Although it had been seen before, it was deployed massively in the aftermath of the 1978 rules changes.  Those rule changes created an offensive explosion, especially in Pittsburg, Dallas, and San Diego.  Even the Rams began to throw the ball deep in 1980 with Vince Ferragamo.  Before this we were a ground chuck offense.

In those days, teams were deathly afraid of the bomb, especially at the end of the game.  The bomb in the 4th quarter was feared because it could quickly bring you back from a sizable deficit.  Let's not forget how the Rams were defeated by the Steelers in 4th quarter of Super Bowl XIV.  Two big 60-prevent-slot-hook-and-goes to John Stallworth won the game for the Steelers.  Stallworth should have been the MVP.

Ergo, the prevent defense was praised in the late 1970s and early 1980s as a very wise, sound and conservative defensive package for the deep 4th quarter.  Typically, teams with a lead would play this package in the last 5 to 7 minutes of the game... if they had a good lead.

But history takes its turns.  A funny little thing happened in 1981 which shot the prevent defense to fucking hell, and some rationalist/anti-empircal fans and coaches still haven't noticed it to this day.  That funny little thing was called the 49er West Coast Offense.

I have found that most people don't understand the West Coast Offense at all.  It is completely misunderstood and mischaracterized by almost everyone as a high-flying and high-scoring offense.  Well... it may be efficient and high scoring (sometimes) but high-flying it ain't.  Especially not in the begining of time when Bill Walsh invented it and Joe Montana was running it.

The West Coast Offense is a piece of pure trickeration.  The objective is to fake the pass on almost every play.  Most of the time, you send two recievers deep to the endzone.  The QB looks deep.  The defense reads the QB and reacts.  The QB checks down to a running back (like Roger Craig, Tom Rathman, Edger Bennett, Dorsey Levens or Michael Westbrook).  The pass covers 4 to 8 total yards in the air.  The running back makes the catch at the line of scrimmage near the sideline.  It looks more like a latteral than a pass, even though it is a forward pass.  The running back runs through a stretched defensive field.  The back can almost always get 4 to 8 yards on such a play.  You use the short pass just like a long hand-off.  You use the short passing game just like the run.  Every play is a delayed hand off.  Every play is a draw.  Every play is a screen pass.  There were three questions to be answered by Walsh in this experiment.  Can the short pass completely replace the running attack?  Can we control the ball and march to a score consistently this way?  Can the short pass setup the long pass?

Basically, Walsh and Montana were able to answer Yes, Yes, and Maybe to those three questions.  It was a revolutionary offense for the mad-bomber era.  The 49ers controlled the ball by passing.  You couldn't sack Joe because he didn't hold the ball long.  He wanted to go short anyhow.  You didn't bother to stop the sort pass, because you wanted to prevent the bomb.  Nobody seemed to notice that Joe had no notion at all of going deep. The deep pattern was just there for deception.  25 yards was a deep pass for Joe Montana.  The 49ers beat up a defense making them run back in coverage and run forward to tackle the running back.  They kept their defense off the field too.  Everything worked.

There was another thing that nobody noticed:  The West Coast Offense utterly destroys the Prevent Defense.  The West Coast Offense is absolutely designed to take that which the Prevent Defense was absolutely designed to concede.  Therefore you put fullness against emptiness.  You telligraph a fastball to a fastball hitter.  It is like a penis penetrating a vagina.  The two were made for each other.  The Prevent Defense is pure pussy for the West Coast Offense.  The stupiest fucking thing any coach could ever attempt to do is run a Prevent Defense against the West Coast Offense for the last 7 minutes of the game.  That is enough time for 2 touchdowns.

But wait, isn't the goal to make the offense complete passes in the center of the field?  Don't we guard the sidelines?  You just fucking try it against these guys!  You just try to keep Craig and Rathman in-bounds when they catch the ball near the sidelines and know they have to get out of bounds to stop the clock.  For the Prevent theorists, life a beautiful theory, ruined by an ugly fact.  The fact of the matter is that very few teams had the sort of linebackers and corners you need to power-slam these kinds of athletes immediately in this situation (remember we're in the prevent).  The Giants and the Bears were two such teams in the 1980s.  The Cowboys were such a team in 1990s.

I don't know how many times my Rams lost to the 49ers in the 1980s when we had a lead on them with 4 or 5 minutes to go.  It happened at least 6 or 7 times.  It happened specifically because Coach John Robinson was a major advocate of the Prevent Defense (it worked at USC, didn't it?) and he loved to run it in the last 5 to 7 minutes of the game.  The Rams might be leading 19-13 with 4 minutes left.  We were willing to concede a field goal, but we didn't want to give up the 7. The 49ers were frustrated.  We bottled Joe all game long.  Then suddenly, after 56 minutes of frustration, Joe gets hot.  He completes everything he throws to Craig, Francis, Franks, Jones, and Rice.  The prevent defense concedes 4 to 8 yards every play.  With horses like Roger Craig, Tom Rathman, and Jerry Rice, they stretch that figure to 12 or 13 yards per play.  They score with 21 seconds left.  We can't comeback running the football with Eric Dickerson.  The situation was too pressure-packed for Jim Everett.  It goes down in the record books as another 2 minute drive for Joe Cool.  

Nope!  Not true!  John Robinson just served up some pure pussy to Bill Walsh.  Bill enjoyed it well.  The West Coast Offense utterly destroys the Prevent Defense.

We Ram-fans weren't the only ones victemized by this stupidity.  The 1983 Redskins almost lost the NFC championship to the 49ers in a very similar fashion.  After inflicting a defensive thumping on Montana through 3 quarters, they thought he was dead.  They went to the Prevent, and Joe got really hot.  They were lucky they profitted from some dastardly-bad calls against the 49ers.  They were lucky Rigg-o could run out the clock for them.  The Diesel won that game.  There were many, many other cases like this.

This is when the chorus began to rise from fans and coaches alike.  This is when we began to chant "The Prevent Defense only prevents you from winning." This only got louder as guys like Wyche, Holmgren, Shanahan, Green, and Gruden started coaching.  I'll tell you now:  All these guys loved it when Marty Schottenheimer ran the Prevent.  This why Marty Schottenheimer never won a single playoff game... except for the two Joe Montana QB'd for him in Kansas City.

Let's face the facts folks:  Nobody plays the West Coast as Walsh once did.  That scheme has evolved out of necessity.  The old methodology doesn't work now.  Defensive Coordinators now know they have to stop the creeping death.  They know they have to challange the short passing game.  They are certain it is leathal if left untreated.  Still, the West Coast is a part of every single one of the 32 offensive playbooks in the NFL now.  Every team has adopted the most successful aspects of this gameplan.  Almost every team uses it (at least a little) each and every Sunday.

If the DC goes to a Prevent, the enemy OC is happy to reply with the West Coast.  The West Coast dominates the Prevent.  Every single year we see several games where some stupid DC tried to go to the Prevent way to early.  In reply, the enemy OC quickly deploys the West Coast.  The result is a come-from-behind victory for the team that profitted from the stupidity of the Prevent. 

This is why we still say the Prevent Defense only prevents you from winning.  The so-called myth is not a myth, and I don't give a fuck if my favorite coach Dick Vermeil takes the other side.  I will remind you that Super Bowl XXXIV was closer than it had to be, and we weren't exactly playing a pure prevent.

There is only one situation where you should ever play the Prevent.  This is in the final 15 seconds of the game when you have a lead greater than 3 points.  Never, never, never use it any sooner than this.