2012 Draft: Wacky prediction #1 Jim Irsay selects Robert Griffin III

In the surprise upset of the century thus far, Jim Ersay and the Colts will select Robert Griffin III #1 over-all in the coming NFL Draft.  Robert Griffin, not Andrew Luck, will become Peyton Manning's successor in the Colt's lineup.  This will be the shocker of shockers in 2012.

Why? Let me give you a list of reasons why:

1. Jim Irsay is a Gemini
2. Robert Griffin III is an Aquarius
3. A number of astrological programs I own predict Irsay will like Griffin better than Luck.
4. This is pretty straightforward, if you understand the theory behind it, but there are some interesting wrinkles in this pile of numbers.
5. Jim Irsay has been making some emotional and intuitive decisions lately... like the decision to fire Vice-Chairman Bill Polian.
6. When decisions are made at the gut-level, you chose the kid you like better, rather than the one who comes most-highly recommended.
7. In terms of pure combine numbers, it is likely Griffin will out-perform Luck at the track-meet in Indianapolis.  This will provide a fig-leaf of science to cover pure choice by preference.
8. Robert Griffin III will 'fit' with current Colt personnel such as Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Donald Brown somewhat better than Andrew Luck will.  These are three of the survivors expected to come forward into the new era of Colt football.
9. Many voices are muttering and murmuring about the coming era of the super-mobile athletic quarterback.  Of course, it's guys like Steve Young, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton who created this buzz.  RGIII is expected to raise that buzz.  Many traditionalists reject this argument vehemently.  I suspect that Irsay will be willing to give it a try.  

The interesting wrinkle is that some software programs predict Irsay will like Griffin better on first contact, but get along better with Luck over the long-term.  

Every have one of those relationships?  You like somebody a lot at first, only to discover you don't get along that well in the long-run?  Ever have a luke-warm to cold reaction to someone at first, only to discover you are highly compatible later on?

This is basically what the Astrological software predicts.  Irsay is going to like Robert Griffin a lot when he first meets him, but it may be a difficult marriage in the long run.  Irsay's first meeting with Andrew Luck is going to leave him cold.  He's just not going to have a good or strong feeling about drafting Andrew.  If he does, it should work out fine in the long run.

Beware of those gut-level and intuitive reactions to people.  You can't always trust your feelings.  As the scientists say, try to disprove your theory, don't try to prove your theory.  You're heart can tell lies.

Virgo-Pisces Alliance No.228: Why is Trent Dilfer Andrew Luck's biggest fan?

So, unless you have been under a rock for the past two years, you probably know the name of Andrew Luck.  You probably know that he is expected to the be the #1 over-all pick in the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.  Unless something really unexpected happens, the Colts will take him and begin their rebuilding effort in verity & sooth.

I will blog about Jim Irsay's very interesting dilemma soon, but not this time.

One of the things football fans have noticed over the course of the past several months is that Andrew Luck has many advocates.  In fact, he has almost zero (0) detractors.

So far, only Phil Simms has risen in critique of Andrew Luck.  I have the greatest respect for Phil Simms, and I view him as one of the top-analysts of the game.  However, I think his critique of Andrew is off-base.  I just don't see it his way.  I just can't see on film what he claims to have seen on film.  When Phil says Andrew doesn't make NFL-type throws, I simply can't understand what he's talking about.  I've seen almost nothing but NFL-type throws out of the kid.  The weight of evidence is greatly against Phil.

Among all of the many advocates Andrew has, one stands out above all the rest.  That would be Trent Dilfer.  Trent Dilfer has said extraordinary things about Andrew.  Like what?  How about "Andrew Luck has no flaws".

Wow... that would make Andrew Luck perfect, now wouldn't it?  I rate the kid pretty dang high, but I would stop shy of perfect.  It's pretty clear that Trent doesn't shy away from that statement.  He believes Andrew will have the most glory-ladened career of all the young'ins coming up in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Trent really believes he is the perfect QB candidate.

It's to be expected.  Trent is a March 13, 1972 Pisces dude.  Andrew is a September 12, 1989 Virgo kid.  That's almost a perfect 180, folks.  The circular distance between March 13 and September 12 is almost exactly 180 degrees.  That is the most powerful angle for attraction, balance, and complementary.  Sirius 1.1 doesn't score them that high, but this is one of those false negatives I like to harp upon.  Looking at the two charts in comparison, I can see obvious things the scoring engine missed.  Dilfer likes Luck better than Sirius says.

Incidentally, Trent is birthday-buddies with my brother.  My brother is 3 years younger.  Once upon a time, I was Trent Dilfer's biggest advocate in the NFL Draft.  I was the leader of the Draft-Trent movement among the Ram fans back 1994.  I was so incandescently pissed-off  when my Rams failed to broker a deal in that draft that I literally took a couple of years off from football.  I knew we were going to suck.  1994-1998 were absolutely dreadful years, only exceeded by our recent stretch of time.  I maintain those would have been much better years if we had made a deal and selected Trent.  Our biggest problem in those days was the QB position.

If you have been keeping track of super-recent events, you know that a debate is emerging inside NFL business circles.  The question is simple.  Who is better:  Andrew Luck of Robert Griffin III?  This is natural occurrence.  We always have too much time on our hands this time of year, ergo we chew over questions and non-questions a thousand times.  Just a couple of months ago, this question would have been considered untenable.

I want to make some specific predictions about this coming debate:

1. It will rage on until draft day
2. RGIII's knee injury will not deter this debate.  Andrew had one also.
3. The Fire/Air Alliance will back RGIII
4. The Earth/Water Alliance will back Andrew Luck.
5. Mike Mayock is going to be torn.  He's next door to Andrew and 180 degrees away from RGIII.  He's going to struggle with this one.  I bet he loves both of these kids.
6. The same goes for Mel Kiper.
7. Todd McShay will side with RGIII
8. Trent Dilfer will continue to be Andrew Luck's biggest advocate.
9. Kurt Warner & Rich Eisen will side with Andrew Luck.

About that #2 pick in the 2012 Draft

Given my dearth of commentary on the Rams lately, you might conclude that I am not too particularly crazy about the coaching moves we've been making.  You would be right about that.

I got a text message from my apartment manager (who happens to be a 40 year Ram-fan) the other day.  It read: "Your silence speaks volumes."

Yep.

I like Gregg Williams.  That's the only positive thing I can say right now.  I think things would have been a lot better with Hugh Jackson at the helm offensively.

But this is not what I sat down to blog about today.  What I wanted to comment about is the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.

If I understand things correctly, I take it that there will be three football teams engaged in a bidding war to acquire our #2 pick over-all in the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.  Those three teams are the Redskins, the Dolphins and the Browns.  XM Radio combined with the Internet is pretty amazing stuff when it comes to intelligence collection.

The most fascinating rumblings of them all are radiating out of the Dolphins camp.  It would appear that Dolphin owner Stephen Ross has a massive man-crush on Baylor QB RGIII.  Scuttlebutt says that Ross believes Robert Griffin brings the talent and the star power necessary to make the Dolphins the talk of Miami again.  Rumor has it Ross is willing to give up a Roman Emperor's ransom to get him.  We're not talking about a King's ransom.  We're talking about a sum well north of that figure.

Many Dolphin fans seem to agree.  I am hearing outlandish talk about the potential offers.  I'm talking about the kind of offers that makes a season skeptic like your author salivate grotesquely...  all over the nice leather seats in my Hyundai Genesis.

Although I grimace as I write this...  We have to entertain those offers.  We have to be prepared to move down in the draft, even if it means losing Justin Blackmon.  You know I don't say that easily, or with a devil-may-care attitude.  I've wanted to draft this kid for a couple of years now.  It would hurt like hell to lose him now.

Nevertheless, the kind of loot they are talking about tossing in our direction is just too rich to pass up.  We have to be open to serious negotiations.

Why Trent Richardson will win the Heisman tonight

A quick look at the last 15 Heisman trophy winners reveals a bunch of clear-cut patterns. Before generalizing, let's look at the empirical data:

Num	Year	Name	School	Position	Class	Points
1	1996	Danny Wuerffel	Florida	QB	Sr	1,363
2	1997	Charles Woodson	Michigan	CB	Jr	1,815
3	1998	Ricky Williams	Texas	RB	Sr	2,355
4	1999	Ron Dayne	Wisconsin	RB	Sr	2,042
5	2000	Chris Weinke	Florida State	QB	Sr	1,628
6	2001	Eric Crouch	Nebrska	QB	Sr	770
7	2002	Carson Palmer	USC	QB	Sr	1,328
8	2003	Jason White	Oklahoma	QB	Jr	1,481
9	2004	Matt Leinart	USC	QB	jr	1,325
10	2005	Reggie Bush	USC	RB	Jr	2,541
11	2006	Troy Smith	Ohio State	QB	Sr	2,540
12	2007	Tim Tebow	Florida	QB	Soph	1,957
13	2008	Sam Bradford	Oklahoma	QB	Soph	1,726
14	2009	Mark Ingram	Alabama	RB	Soph	1,304
15	2010	Cam Newton	Auburn	QB	Jr	2,263

After carefully reviewing this data, let's generalize:

1. You have to play offense. Even Charles Woodson played WR and caught passes from Tom Brady at Michigan. He would openly tell you that he never would have won the award if didn't play offense.
2. You must come from a major, major brand-name college to win the award. Guys from Fresno State and Alcorn State don't win the Heisman. It doesn't matter if they go on to become #1 and #3 overall picks in the NFL Draft. You don't win the Heisman if you are from a non-Fortune 25 program.
3. Your perennial top 25 program better be playing for the national championship, or you are not going to win the Heisman. There are a few exceptions on this list, but very few. Charles Woodson, in particular, won the award because he was Michigan's clear-cut MVP in the year they won the Championship. Tim Tebow is a major exception, but he was in-between two national championships at the time. He was also the clear-cut MVP of that program.
4. You better be the MVP of that #1 or #2 ranked team, or you are not going to win the Heisman. Just about every name on that list is the clear-cut MVP of his program.
5. You had better be a QB or an RB, or you are not going to win the award. Charles Woodson is the only exception to this rule, but he is the most exceptional winner of all-time, and everybody knows it.

As I stated in my last blog entry, Trent Richardson is the only guy who fits the suit. Nobody else on the list of contenders fits the suit. Ergo Richardson must be the projected winner of the award.

I have no idea why odds-makers have made Robert Griffin III the favorite to win the award. I guess this is because Las Vegas was built on losers, not on winners. The objective of the handicapper is not to pick the winner, but to trick you into betting on the loser. As far as I am concerned, Robert Griffin is an instant replay of the Steve McNair story. Nobody put up more impressive numbers than McNair. McNair went on to become the #3 pick in the draft. He did not win the Heisman.

Is Baylor really that kind of a small-time program? Compared to Alabama? Absolutely! No doubt about it. Baylor is not a perennial top 25 program. Quite frankly, they aren't even close. Baylor is not playing for the national title this year. Quite frankly, they aren't even close. Robert Griffin has two major strikes against him. Trent Richardson does not.

My buddy Rico, who happens to be a Libra, objected to this line of reasoning. He declared that this just wasn't fair. Such a statement would indicate that

1. Defensive players & lineman can't win the award
2. Kids from small schools can't win the award
3. Great performers who aren't the MVP of their squad can't win.
4. You win because of your program, not your own merits.

Yes, that is absolutely correct. That is what it is. These facts are clearly evident in the data. This is the empirical fact.

"That just isn't fair!" I ain't saying it's fair. I'm saying this is the fact of the matter.

My friends, this is a moment for an object lesson in Astrology. Rico is a Libra. Contrary to popular notions, Virgo is not the great perfectionist of the Zodiac. Libra is. Like all earth signs, we Virgos are concrete, pragmatic, factual, logical, evidence-based critters. We reason from the material facts to the conclusion, not from an abstract notion of what is fair or lovely or beautiful or nice to an idealized notion of perfect reality.

The air-critters go from the abstract vision of what is fair, lovely, beautiful, nice, and well-balanced to an idealized notion of what should be. They do this like crazy. Gemini, Libra, and Aquarius all do this on a routine basis. None more than Libra. This is one of the reasons why earth and air people don't communicate well. Their reasoning methodologies are just too different.

Colin Cowherd is famous for saying "Fair doesn't exist. It's not a part of real life. Get over it." You can hear the screams of air people as he says that. You can hear a Virgo like me chuckling, because I know the air people are screaming. It should be noted that Cowherd is a major college football fan, and also a Capricorn brother. That means he's an earth boy, like me. Capricorns are concrete, pragmatic, factual, evidence-based critters also.

The truth is where the evidence leads us, not where we would like it to be. Too bad, really. Life sucks in the real world, then you die.

One interesting fact: Charles Woodson happens to be a Libra, and he broke a couple of the empirical patterns. Not bad... Interesting.