Virgo-Pisces Alliance No.228: Why is Trent Dilfer Andrew Luck's biggest fan?

So, unless you have been under a rock for the past two years, you probably know the name of Andrew Luck.  You probably know that he is expected to the be the #1 over-all pick in the up-coming 2012 NFL Draft.  Unless something really unexpected happens, the Colts will take him and begin their rebuilding effort in verity & sooth.

I will blog about Jim Irsay's very interesting dilemma soon, but not this time.

One of the things football fans have noticed over the course of the past several months is that Andrew Luck has many advocates.  In fact, he has almost zero (0) detractors.

So far, only Phil Simms has risen in critique of Andrew Luck.  I have the greatest respect for Phil Simms, and I view him as one of the top-analysts of the game.  However, I think his critique of Andrew is off-base.  I just don't see it his way.  I just can't see on film what he claims to have seen on film.  When Phil says Andrew doesn't make NFL-type throws, I simply can't understand what he's talking about.  I've seen almost nothing but NFL-type throws out of the kid.  The weight of evidence is greatly against Phil.

Among all of the many advocates Andrew has, one stands out above all the rest.  That would be Trent Dilfer.  Trent Dilfer has said extraordinary things about Andrew.  Like what?  How about "Andrew Luck has no flaws".

Wow... that would make Andrew Luck perfect, now wouldn't it?  I rate the kid pretty dang high, but I would stop shy of perfect.  It's pretty clear that Trent doesn't shy away from that statement.  He believes Andrew will have the most glory-ladened career of all the young'ins coming up in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Trent really believes he is the perfect QB candidate.

It's to be expected.  Trent is a March 13, 1972 Pisces dude.  Andrew is a September 12, 1989 Virgo kid.  That's almost a perfect 180, folks.  The circular distance between March 13 and September 12 is almost exactly 180 degrees.  That is the most powerful angle for attraction, balance, and complementary.  Sirius 1.1 doesn't score them that high, but this is one of those false negatives I like to harp upon.  Looking at the two charts in comparison, I can see obvious things the scoring engine missed.  Dilfer likes Luck better than Sirius says.

Incidentally, Trent is birthday-buddies with my brother.  My brother is 3 years younger.  Once upon a time, I was Trent Dilfer's biggest advocate in the NFL Draft.  I was the leader of the Draft-Trent movement among the Ram fans back 1994.  I was so incandescently pissed-off  when my Rams failed to broker a deal in that draft that I literally took a couple of years off from football.  I knew we were going to suck.  1994-1998 were absolutely dreadful years, only exceeded by our recent stretch of time.  I maintain those would have been much better years if we had made a deal and selected Trent.  Our biggest problem in those days was the QB position.

If you have been keeping track of super-recent events, you know that a debate is emerging inside NFL business circles.  The question is simple.  Who is better:  Andrew Luck of Robert Griffin III?  This is natural occurrence.  We always have too much time on our hands this time of year, ergo we chew over questions and non-questions a thousand times.  Just a couple of months ago, this question would have been considered untenable.

I want to make some specific predictions about this coming debate:

1. It will rage on until draft day
2. RGIII's knee injury will not deter this debate.  Andrew had one also.
3. The Fire/Air Alliance will back RGIII
4. The Earth/Water Alliance will back Andrew Luck.
5. Mike Mayock is going to be torn.  He's next door to Andrew and 180 degrees away from RGIII.  He's going to struggle with this one.  I bet he loves both of these kids.
6. The same goes for Mel Kiper.
7. Todd McShay will side with RGIII
8. Trent Dilfer will continue to be Andrew Luck's biggest advocate.
9. Kurt Warner & Rich Eisen will side with Andrew Luck.

Jimmy Clausen, Mike Lombardi and Me

My position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, I was one of Jimmy Clausen’s most outspoken detractors. I went back and read a few of my blog posts in prep for this one, and I cringe at some of the ruthless, crushing, brutal statements I laid down. I was brutally honest. I had reason to be.

Those were desperate times. My Rams had hit the bottom of the barrel. The organization was going to change QBs, and that meant choosing a new QB somewhere in the 2010 draft. We all knew that. There was a loud and vocal Notre Dame contingent in the Midwest who were adamant that the Rams needed to select Jimmy Clausen #1 in the draft. Mel Kiper Jr. was pouring fuel on that fire. I had to stomp out the fire.

It wasn’t personal. I don’t hate the kid. I wish him success now that he is in the league. I just didn’t want my team to take him. Why? Well… I was pretty sure he was going to go bust for all the reasons I spelled out in detail. We were already in the shithouse. We could not afford to lose 5 years and another HQ regime on a busted #1 pick. The catastrophe had to be averted.

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2010

A year ago, Mike Lombardi was pretty damn positive on Jimmy Clausen. Like many, he loved the fact that Clausen played under center for the ‘legendary’ (wft?) Charlie Weis. Like many, Lombardi suspected that Clausen might be the most pro-ready QB. Like so many, Lombardi felt that Clausen had fallen into a nearly ideal situation in Carolina. He was with a good team that had a solid running game, a good offensive line, and a good defense. Clausen was ostensibly the QB best setup for success in 2010. Or so they all said…

Well, here we are…

What a difference a single year makes. My Rams are no longer 1-15 but 7-9. The Panthers are no longer 8-8 but 2-14. We gained 6 wins. They lost 6 more games. We took Sam Bradford (over my objections) and they took Clausen (over my objections). The Panthers are drafting #1. We are drafting #14. What a remarkable flip-flop of positions.

My, my, my how everyone’s positions on Clausen have changed!

Mike Lombardi’s position on Clausen in 2011

Lombardi, like everybody else, seems to have completely written off Clausen after a just few starts in 2010. Yes, it was ugly. It was even more ugly than I suggested. Lombardi and everybody else has some justification for the quick flip-flop of position.

Now you see Lombardi advocating the notion that Carolina must draft Blaine Gabbert with the top pick in this 2011 Draft.

My position on Clausen in 2011

You have no idea how awkward I feel writing the following paragraph. Were I any other guy, I would probably be crowing about how right I was, and how wrong everybody else was. I would pound my chest about how I took a stand against the draft experts and won. Granted, I sorta did a little bit of that here, but this is not what I have sat down to write.

My position on Clausen in 2011 is… eh… ah… er… give him another chance.

WHAT?

Yep.

NO!

Yep.

NO FUCKING WAY???

Yes way. Let me make the following points and I’ll just leave it at that.

Reasons for not drafting a QB and giving Clausen a chance in 2011

1. You hardly gave Clausen a chance in 2011
2. Having drafted this kid, you are morally obligated to give this kid something vaguely resembling an even break.
3. The whole team clearly suffered a massive breakdown this season.
4. This wasn’t exactly Clausen’s fault.
5. You didn’t get better results with Nat Moore.
6. One of the best reasons why Clausen is going bust now lies in the fact that he came out as a true 21 year old junior. Junior QBs go bust at a 90% rate in the NFL.
7. Lombardi is counseling you to take another 21 year old true junior.
8. Do you want another thin-dime of a chance with your #1 pick in 2011?
9. While I do believe Blaine Gabbert is a heck of a lot better than Clausen, I am still not sold on this guy, especially as the #1 pick overall.
10. I think the odds are perilously high that you will compound the bust of one true junior QB with another true Junior QB. The cost of this bust will be vastly higher.
11. If you are smart, you’ll trade down with the Bengals, get a 2nd round pick. Then you should select Patrick Peterson and Christian Ponder or (maybe) Jake Locker.
12. Even if Ponder is the guy you start by the end of the season, you may develop Clausen into a salable commodity in 2011. Get something back for him.

I must say I am a little annoyed…

I’ve been mentioning Mike Lombardi quite a bit lately. Although I like the guy, he annoys me tremendously with his advocacy of the QB position. Setting aside the concrete fact that the only good QB is a dead QB, it seems that Lombardi’s sole mission on Path to the Draft is to convince as many teams to take QBs as high in the first round as possible.

I am not nearly so sanguine about taking a QB in the draft. Knowing full well that you bare a 70% chance of going bust in a best-case scenario, this is not a gamble you take lightly. You don’t gamble like this every year, unless you are a crazy fool. You should be especially careful of gambling like this when you are stuck in the shithole. If you miss here, you are fucked for 5 years, and it will probably sink the current administration.

Just remember what Billy Devaney said to Marshall Faulk “When I drafted this kid, I had to pack-up my office. If he gets hurt, I’m going to be fired.” Draft one at your mortal risk.

Now… once again, I feel a little funny writing that last paragraph. Why? Well… you see, my Rams seem to be the latest primary beneficiaries of drafting a top-end QB. Yes, I know this is true. It is very good not need a QB, especially this year. The future looks bright for my Rams, and this is because we have a rising franchise QB. Thought I fought the hell out of him, Devaney turned out to be right, and I was wrong.

I want to say it one more time, so I make it perfectly clear: None of the QBs in this draft are strong enough to carry the weight of Sam Bradford’s jockstrap. I don’t feel particularly great about any of the QB prospects in this draft. Last year, I liked three of them, but not necessarily for my Rams.

Don’t let anybody deceive you: 2011 is a much worse year for QBs than 2010. There are a lot of absolutely sensational athletes in this draft; possibly the best we’ve ever seen. I don’t know if there is so much as one franchise QB in this draft. If there is, he probably isn’t one of the guys they are looking at in the 1^st round.

How about that Tebow?

Overdue

I’ve been meaning to write this column for the better part of a week now, but it’s been a very busy time. I spent a good chunk of this holiday at home in Fresno California with the family, and my brother came down to L.A. to visit afterward. I didn’t want to do a half-ass job on this entry.

Tim had his first 300 yard game

For those who don’t know it, Tim Tebow just had his first 300 yard game against the Houston Texans. He shot 16/29 for 308 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This yields him and NFL QB rating of 89.44, and an NCAA rating of 148.869. The formulas are different. He also ran 10 times for 27 yards and a touchdown. His long was 11 yards for the TD, so can see in the statistics that he was mostly running to avoid pressure. Most importantly, his offense put 24 points on the score board and won the game.

So Tim is back up to his old tricks again. For those who don’t know it, Tim had a career NCAA passer rating of 175. That roughly translates to an NFL rating of 122. You should note that no NFL QB has ever had a rating of 122 over 4 or even 3 seasons. Tim did precisely this against the finest SEC, Big East, Big-12 and Big-10 defenses in the country. He threw those passes against defenses loaded with Sunday talent. He did that on route to two NCAA championships and a Heisman trophy. His achievements as an NCAA passer cannot be denied.

Of course, I am biased. I have called Tim Tebow the son I never had. You know I love this kid. I temper those critiques with this point: There is a reason I adopted this kid. Getting your first victory and an 89.44 rating in just your second start is damn good for any QB. It took Sam until his 3^rd start to get his first victory, and 7^th start to get a passer rating over 89. Of course, Tim was going against the Texans’ defense, and he does have the NFL’s leading receiver to throw to.

Perplexed by the critics

I have to say, I continue to be perplexed by Tim Tebow’s doubters. For some utterly bizarre reason, they seem to think he can’t throw the football. I am absolutely sure I have no idea what the hell you guys are talking about. I am fairly sure that you are looking at some other kid named Tim Tebow, not the Tim Tebow. I keep hearing these utterly bizarre conversations about some H-Back or Tightend that came out in last year’s draft. This absolute non-sense is baffling. I have no idea where this talk comes from.

To straighten out the confusion on this subject, you must begin with one iron-clad law: Quarterback evaluators don’t know what the hell they are talking about. They are ignorant as fuck, as a rule. I am not just speaking of Tebow’s case. I am speaking of all cases, period. If they knew what they were talking about 70% of all can’t-miss QBs selected in the first round wouldn’t go bust. As I stated so many times last year, the 70% bust rate among first-round QBs is iron-clad proof that NFL Quarterback evaluators don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

You must admit, you’re 70% rate of failure is an absolutely damning statistic. If a QB missed on 70% of his passes and lost 70% of his starts, he would be a shitty QB indeed. You need to entertain the possibility that you are all quite shitty at evaluating QB prospects.

Michael Lombardi quoted Bill Walsh many times during the last draft cycle. His favorite quote was this: Very few men are qualified to evaluate the QB position, and even fewer are qualified to coach the QB. I will translate that for you: “Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN does not know what the hell he is talking about when he evaluates Tim Tebow.”

Lombardi is a very nice and diplomatic guy, and would never run the ragged edge of serrated knife through Kiper’s guts. I would, I have, and I will again. I rather enjoy it. I better cut Mel whilst I still can. He has vowed to retire soon due to the bust of Jimmy Clausen.

When you see Mel Kiper doing a QB evaluation, you must begin with the presupposition that he has a 70% chance of being wrong. You would also do well to presume that 70% of what he says is absolute bullshit. If you do not begin with these presuppositions, you are a fucking fool.

The Chargers are next

The Chargers are next. I live here in SoCal, and I hear quite a bit of Charger chat on the Radio. I can tell you that the Charger fans and the Charger coaching staff are concerned about this game. The fans don’t want to be embarrassed and neither Norv Turner no A.J. Smith want to end with a loss to the rudderless and ruined Broncos. Such a loss could be the last straw.

Most of the talk I hear is worried talk. The Chargers are worried about defending Tim Tebow. He does what Michael Vick does, and what Steve Young did. He takes the snap from shotgun and fades back to throw. You set yourself to defend the pass. He runs. Suddenly your defensive configuration is all wrong. This gives NFL DCs like Ron Rivera fits.

The 2011 Draft and the Cam Newton Mess

Prolog about the 2011 draft

Suddenly in the past two weeks, everybody is beginning to talk about the 2011 draft. I guess this correlates with the first series of mathematical eliminations from the playoff picture. Once your 2010 season is (virtually) over, and you’re just playing out the string, there is nothing to look forward to but the draft. In a sense, it is reasonable to start talking about the draft.

Unfortunately, the things being said about the 2011 draft are mostly poppycock. As usual, there is far too much talk about the QB position. I hope to install a circuit breaker on some of this sanguine talk. Much like the New York Yankees, I hope I can get you to sip the reality potion.

And the #1 prospect of 2011 is: a very shitty draft indeed!

That’s right! You heard it from me first. The top prospect in 2011 is a shitty draft. Why? Let me tell you about it.

1. The 2010 draft was an ultra bonsai affair, quite probably the best draft since 1983. 2010 was rich because it looted the 2011 Draft. Loads of quality underclassmen declared themselves eligible for the 2010 draft.

2. The record numbers of underclassmen who declared themselves eligible in 2010 did so explicitly because they feared a rookie salary cap in 2011.

3. Unless the 2011 draft can loot the 2012 draft, it is going to be a very poor crop indeed. Will we see another strong crop of under classmen entering the NFL draft this year? Fuck no.

4. On the first horn of the dilemma is the fact that the NFL moves closer and closer to a lock-out every day. The owners have already spelled out a detailed plan for a partial shut-down of the league. They will go into hibernation mode to conserve money. In response, the players have voted to conditionally decertify the Union if a lockout occurs. This is legal maneuver that permits litigation. In response, the league published a plan to refund season ticket holders if there is a lockout. In response, the Union informed its players that they should save and not spend their last two paychecks of the year to get them through 2011. We are much further down the road to disaster than you think.

5. On the second horn of the dilemma is the fact that the Union is fine with the idea of a rookie salary cap. Vets don’t like it when rookies get $78m contracts, with $50 million guaranteed. Whether you know it or not, the rookie salary cap is not a controversial issue in this negotiation. All inside sources say the players favor a rookie cap. If they can work out the other issues, like an 18 game schedule, the rookie cap will be an automatic part of the agreement.

If I am a junior or a sophomore eligible for this year’s draft, I am officially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If I enter the draft, I may get locked out, or I may get capped. In either case, I am not happy with the situation. I may lose my senior year of football only to be locked out and make no (zip, zero, zilch, nada) money. I may return to work for what my immediate predecessors would consider shitty contract.

Sorry folks, that just isn’t much incentive to leave school. Unless I am a senior, I am staying in school. When you look at it from the micro-economic perspective, I see little reason to believe that the 2011 draft will loot the 2012 draft. The motivation to declare for the draft just isn’t there. This is going to be a senior prom affair, with a few underclassmen guests.

Based on all of these points, I think this will be the worst draft since 1987. It just so happens that 1987 was the last strike-afflicted year. That is not a co-inky-dink. There is a causal link here.

The NFL Never, Never, Never learns

There is a Mosaic law, stenciled by the finger of God on stone which states clearly “Thou shalt not take a quarterback in the 1^st round!” That’s right, it’s mortal sin to take a QB in the 1^st round of the draft. Why do I say this?

According to the actuarial tables, a high 1^st round pick should have a better than 50% chance of making it in the NFL. More than 70% of all Senior QBs drafted in the 1^st round, fail to become franchise QBs in the NFL. Yes, it’s true ladies and germs. Test me and see if I am wrong. That is worse than the average results for non-quarterback 3^rd round picks. About 66% of 3^rd round picks go bust in this league.

When you draft a QB in the 1^st around you automatically down-grade your first round pick to a lower value than a third round pick. That is a statistical fact, not a theory. It is a posteriori conclusion, it is not a priori notion. It is a conclusion from research, not a theoretical explanation of data.

If you know anything at all about probability and outcome in mathematics, or risk assessment in economics, you know that using a 1^st rounder on a quarterback is the same value as trading a 1^st round pick for a 3^rd round pick. That is a very stupid thing to do.

Your Rams just struck gold in the 1^st round, right?

The automatic response is to hit me with the et tu fallacy, and remind me that the Rams just took Sam Bradford and did fine. You might remember that I had plenty of objections to that move. Devaney turned out to be right. I turned out to be wrong. We both got lucky. In any case, I would not recommend this ‘strategy’ to anyone.

The fact remains that a 1^st round QB is a very bad economic and logistical risk in the draft.

At this point it looks like we got away with murder… in broad daylight… captured on video tape. I don’t know how we managed to do that, and my mind still boggles over this clean get-away. It was the triumph of emotion over reason. It was the triumph of a gutsy call over scientific football.

Still, I would never recommend attempting murder to anyone. Hang on a sec there Dave, did you just equivocate drafting a QB in the first round with attempting to get away with murder? Yep, that’s exactly and precisely it. Drafting a QB in the first round is like trying to get away with murder.

And now for the Andrew Luck and Cam Newton bullshit

Let me begin with a recap: If I am an underclassman, I’m staying in school. I am not entering the draft. Understand that 90% of all non-senior QBs go bust in the draft. Understand that there is a lockout on the horizon. Understand that if you take your 90% risk, and stare-down the lockout, you may win a shitty contract as your reward for bravery. Not much incentive there, eh boys? Play the percentages and stay in school.

Looking at it from the perspective of an NFL GM, I think you are absolutely crazy if you take either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. Luck is a redshirt sophomore. He’s too young. Throw that one back. Let him grow some more. Forget about him. I am not taking a 10% chance and a 90% risk on him.

Cam is effectively a redshirt junior, and he’s carrying plenty of baggage. Here we have the kid who’s destined to be the most controversial figure in football during both 2010 and 2011. I’ll give you my two cents about Cam, which ain’t worth a nickel.

Mel Kiper is hyped about Cam Newton. In that one fact alone, you have all the information you will ever need to stay away from the kid. Mel is the practically perfect reverse barometer. Remember, this was the fool who advocated JaMarcus Russell like there was no tomorrow. Mel was the guy who stated that JaMarcus would be a Top 5 NFL Quarterback within 3-5 years. Nope, he’s out of the league. In his wildest statements ever, Mel said JaMarcus had true ”John Elway ability.”

If a man could be burned at the stake for being wrong about the draft, certainly Mel would be charcoal by now.

Colin Cowherd is also a Cam Newton advocate. Understand that Cowherd offers you nothing on the draft except regurgitated Mel Kiper takes. When you get a draft opinion from Cowherd, you are getting a second hand, predigested Kiper take. As an added bonus, Cowherd freely admits that he liked Ryan Leaf, the guy most frequently cited as the biggest NFL draft bust in history.

Just one more special bonus: Both Kiper and Cowherd were stoked up about Jimmy Clausen last year. Insiders say that the Carolina Panthers are interested in acquiring both John Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in a package deal. If so, what does that tell you about Clausen? What does this tell you about the Panthers’ organization? Nothing good in any case. It’s a train wreck disaster going down in Charlotte. Clausen is a part of that train wreck. So are Kiper and Cowherd.

Why I am not taking Cam Newton

History teaches us that kids with loose morals turn into tragedies once they get a couple of million bucks in their pockets. This has absolutely nothing to do with on-the-field performance. This has everything to do with the police blotter.

If you interviewed all 32 NFL GMs, I guarantee you that their #1 fear of a prospect lies in how he will respond to sudden wealth. They worry about whether their chosen kid has the moral fiber to withstand sudden, massive, unbelievable prosperity. GMs worry about whether sudden wealth will turn the chosen one into a drug-fueled party monster. There are all kinds of things that walk hand-in-hand and side-by-side with being one of those rich NFL Party Monsters. This is the #1 risk for just about any high-round pick in the NFL Draft.

In response to this kind of attack, defenders of Cam Newton frequently cite the fact that Cam had both parents in the home and his daddy (Cecil) is a preacher. Please… it is to laugh.

We all know that there are two types of preachers in this world: sent by God and not of God. You got some who are in it for humanitarian reasons, and you have some who are in it for the money. You have some who are other-worldly, and you have some who are very worldly indeed.

What would you think of a preacher who goes to a college or university and makes a point-blank illegal Payola demand on behalf of his son? By all accounts, Cecil Newton is a Deliverance preacher. Do you know what that means? He rebukes Satan and casts out devils for contributions… errr… the tithe. You do know that this is something Benny Hinn and Ken Copeland specialize in? They cast out Satan in deliverance services all the time. Somehow Satan always gets back inside in time for the next show. These two Deliverance preachers are also big advocates of Payola.

No folks, I am staying away from Cam Newton. I love athletic running QBs, and I am staying away from Cam. Stolen laptops? Cheating on tests? On the verge of getting kicked out of Florida? Bumping down to the CC level? Asking for payola on his return? Just one year of productivity on the major college level? This doesn’t sound like the sort of moral fiber that withstands massive wind-fall profits.

Some have compared Cam Newton to JaMarcus Russell. Dan Fouts did this recently on the Dan Patrick show. Is that supposed to inspire confidence in anyone?

Others have compared Cam to Vince Young. I think that is more apt, but do understand that Vince Young’s career is on the bubble right now. He lacks mental toughness, the ability to deal with adversity, and work through issues with his coach. To be precise, he can’t take it when people boo him. Again, this isn’t good confidence material.

Finally, many have compared Cam to Tim Tebow for a lot of reasons. Understand this: TD Tim had four squeaky clean years of high productivity at Florida before graduating as a senior. He was beloved by all, and criticized by no one. In terms of actual production, Cam is a one-year wonder more comparable to Ryan Leaf than Tim Tebow.

If I am in the market for a quarterback, and boy I’m sure glad we aren’t, I am looking in another direction.

A little retrospective

How good does the Bradford pick look today? Not only are our Rams set with a solid franchise QB, but we are set to enjoy a free pass in 2011. How good is that? I think it is just fucking fantastic that no one expects us to participate in the QB debate this year. We can now enjoy our right to completely ignore the entire Andrew Luck & Cam Newton controversy. Everybody will understand completely.

If we had avoided a QB entirely in 2010, something I knew we would not do, there would be tremendous political pressure on the Rams to select either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton (should they be available). Certainly we would not be 6-6 and in the NFC West hunt this year. We would have another high pick more pressure than ever to select a QB.

Now we don’t have the slightest worry in the world about that. All is well. Devaney’s call is looking better and better every day.

Oh, so now Florio is taking a stab at McShay?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/31/todd-mcshay-backlash-builds/

In one of the most bluntly crafted hit-pieces written since I myself last took up the keyboard, Mike Florio just took a wild stab at Todd McShay. His points are as follows:

1. McShay mislead Jevan Snead into entering the draft
2. McShay is bad, Kiper is good.
3. McShay is bad because he has no connections, and he doesn't like Clausen
4. Kiper is good because he works hard, and does like Clausen
5. The best amateur draftnik is Mike Mayock

HAHAHAHhaahahahaha! Oh bouy! Where or where do I begin deconstructing this pile of shit??? So many choices, so little time. This has to be one of the most topsy-turvy, upside down, ass-backwards, perversions I've read in years! Almost every aspect of this hit piece is entirely wrong, but then again, so too are the McNabb rumors and the Tebow rumors. Fabrications, one and all.

For the record, allow me to state the following:

1. Since the day Jevan Snead entered the draft, persistent reports have held that Snead had trouble with his grades. College was not his strong suit. Some reports stated Snead was close to loosing his athletic eligibility due to academic probation. I seem to recall reading this on Mel Kiper's ESPN blog, as well as other places.
2. Although I am not hyper about either of these two 'scouts', McShay is much better and Kiper Jr is a lot worse. All you have to do to prove this case is go through Kiper Jr.'s words on the numerous (39) all-out-bust QBs in the 1st around of the draft over the past 30 years. There's your proof. McShay doesn't have a deep track record, but he is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
3. The greatest single feather in McShay's cap is that he is not going along with the Jimmy Clausen rubbish. If I object to his ratings of Clausen, I object to the fact that he has not gone far enough in critiquing this kid. Everyone stops with the intangibles. You should go further than that. I don't believe the kid has the level of talent everyone says he does. The Pro-System he comes from did little to help Brady Quinn, a more athletic QB candidate, to succeed in this league. Clausen is an obvious bust risk, but no one speaks openly about his risk factors. Clausen is vastly more risky than McShay leads one to believe.
4. Kiper is good because he works hard and likes Clausen??? NO, NO,NO, NO! Well, I respect the work, but he is absolutely and completely wrong about Clausen. Clausen is a true junior from an mediocre program. If he is drafted in the 1st round, the actuarial tables predict he has a 90% chance of going bust. That is way to high a risk for me. Florio could not be more wrong. He is just as wrong and wrong can be here. Florio must have come from Notre Dame or something. I understand he is an Italian Lawyer from West Virginia and life long fan of the Vikings. They don't say where he got his degree, though.
5. Mike Mayock is no amateur. Mike Mayock is the draft scout for NFL Films. He is the guy who does most of the scouting for the NFL Network. Calling Mike Mayock an amateur draftnik is like calling Chief Justice John Roberts an amateur lawnik. Jesus is that bogus! Furthermore, if Florio ever watched the NFL Network, he would know that Mayock says many of the same things McShay says about Clausen. He's a little less blunt about it, but he raises very similar concerns. Like McShay, Mayock doesn't go far enough in stating the risks associated with Clausen's profile.

We should note in passing that an unnamed source is attributed with all of these comments, but I don't believe that for a moment. Florio crafted this piece ex-nillo, as has done in so many other cases.

One final point, I want it to be known that I am a fan of Jevan Snead. I think he has a lot more athletic ability than Clausen does. Somebody is going to get a real steal in this kid. I saw a couple of his better games against Tennessee and LSU, and I was impressed. That blood-bath in the Cotton Bowl aught to be called The Body Bag Game II. I don't hold that one against him, sometimes all you can do is win, and he did.

It should be noted that Snead took one of the most vicious hits in College Football history in that Cotton Bowl game. Not only did he come back in a few minutes and play again, he actually played better after the hit! He'll never have to prove his manhood in any other way.

The one question about Jevan, and its a big one, is his intellect. Does he have the brain of an NFL QB? Given the complexity and deception of NFL defensive schemes these day, every NFL Quarterback has to be pretty damn smart. You also have to be studious, disciplined and diligent in your mental preparation. This preparation does resemble academic work, but the subject is a lot more fun. I hold out the possibility that Snead's mental effort will rise the moment he is able to work exclusively with the subject he loves: Football.

Kiper vs. McShay on Clausen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2I24RxRl1g

I just viewed a lovely video on the YouTube. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay compared their latest mock drafts. A major disagreement ensued over Jimmy Clausen. Todd is really coming up in my estimation. Although the situation was quite uncomfortable for both of them, they were willing to disagree sharply on the air.

Like me, McShay seems to believe that Clausen has the highest bust potential in the draft. He focuses on maturity, which is another way of saying he is a true junior, and too young to be in this situation. He also focuses on the fact that Notre Dame has not produced a QB in a very long time. We just had that very same discussion in 2007 over Brady Quinn. The Quinn story just reached a major negative milestone. Teams would be crazy to ignore this outcome.

As always, Kiper continues to propound the notion that Clausen is the most NFL ready QB in the past 5 years. Why? Quinn was drafted 3 years ago with the exact same specifications. Weren't they equally ready? We know how that story turned out.

McShay and Kiper agree that Clausen will probably go in the top 10. What they don't agree on is whether that is justified. Kiper says he should go in the top 10. McShay says he will in the top 10, but he should not. Kiper is an advocate. McShay is not.

How about if we reach for a tie-breaker? Mike Mayock says Clausen is the #2 quarterback prospect, but he doesn't really like the kid. He rates Clausen outside his top 20 prospects for this draft. He too believes that Clausen will probably go high, but he should not. He has not used the dreaded bust word, but he raises many of the same issues that McShay does. So far, Mayock does not seem to think that Clausen will go in the top 10. Neither does Charlie Casserly. You can see his Mock Draft here:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-hq-videos/09000d5d81702380/Casserly-s-mock-draft

I get the impression that Clausen's stock is sagging. Kiper is doing what he can to keep it afloat, but he is ice skating uphill. The tide is going the other way. It is my impression that Mike Holmgren's all-out purgative dump of Brady Quinn has rattled the league. Jamie Dukes (one of my favorite guys) was an exponent of Clausen during the combine. Now he has gone silent. In Jamie's case, I know it was the Quinn-dump that stopped the train. Jamie was astounded that Holmgren saw no value in Brady at all.

Ad meanwhile, both Bradford and Tebow seem to be rising. Bradford doesn't have much headroom to rise before he reaches the top. It looks like he is going to get there. It looks like Tebow has silences the 5th & 6th round talk. It looks like he is going no later than the 3rd, and probably in the second. Colt McCoy keeps trucking along as a steady 2nd round pick.

It will be interesting to see who goes first: Tebow or McCoy. I would suggest Tebow, but you never know.

The Rams will be hosting Colt McCoy soon. If we should deal the #1 and go for a QB in the 2nd, it will likely be Colt McCoy. So far we have showed no interest in Tebow, save for a few web pages.

The grand sports media conspiracy and ESPN

Well, well, well... how the tide has turned for Tim Tebow this morning. Todd McShay appeared on NFL Live last night and said very flattering things about Tebow's progress. Colin Cowherd, a famed Tebow detractor, hosted Herman Edwards this morning and had a discussion about Tebow. Cowherd moderated his position extensively... With Herm Edward's help. Everyone on ESPN seems to be warming to Tebow. Mel Kiper Jr has not been heard on this subject.

All of this reminds me of grand media conspiracy I have heard about many times over the past 20 or so years. You see, the sports media needs consumer/customers. Media outlets need you every day. Big dips in interest are really bad business. It's hard to make up for the big dippers during the big spikes. If there were any strategies one might employ to even out interest to some degree, it would make a big difference to the bottom line.

Are there any such strategies? Sure. How about if we build up a super hero, and then we tear him down, and then build him up again. A larger than life figure in trouble is a compelling news story indeed. We see it all over the place. Especially if and when the kid is tremendously popular, sticking him in a rough patch will make for a compelling drama. You can produce an award winning soap opera as the kid tries to dig himself out of a hole.

So you build 'em up to tear 'em down, and tear 'em down to build 'em up.

Tebow's draft journey sure looks like it matches this profile. It looks like ESPN may well have applied one of their cookie-cutter templates for drama to Tim Tebow. Tebow was the perfect dupe for this as well. A tremendously popular kid, perceived as being too perfect, loaded with athletic ability and achievements. Fans in every one of the 32 NFL markets are campaigning for their teams to take Tebow.

Guess what folks at home? Tebow has no future. He just isn't an NFL Quarterback. Bad mechanics, comes out of the spread, he can't read a defense, and he's stupid. He's a good guy and all, but he just can't play NFL football. It's tragic really.

There is a traumatized reaction in the nation. People all over the country gasp. Fans in all 32 NFL cities look at each other in astonishment, and demand clarifications of this verdict. ESPN is happy to oblige. Just tune in. Kiper will give you the word.

Disappointed fans ask themselves if it is really true. Some lemmings go along with it. Those with age, experience, and confidence in their eyes reject Kiper's conclusions. An Internet battle of the blogs ensues. As the war heats up, ESPN's NFL team and the NFL Network do much better business than expected during this off season.

Then Tebow stumbles at the Senior Bowl. The critics become ferocious. The defense bears down. Tebow does well at the combine. Bullets are exchanged. Tebow does very well at his ProDay. NFL HQ invites Tim Tebow to come to Radio City Music Hall on draft day.

Suddenly ESPN turns around. Tebow is really an okay guy. With a year or two of development, he will find his way in the NFL. He's a developmental project, but he will be fine. Tebow got some pretty fine endorsements last night on NFL Live. Troy Aikman, Archie Manning, Bob Greise, and John Gruden all gave him ringing endorsements. It's looking good for Tebow again.

The people are relieved. We would hate to see such a great kid disappointed in life. Rejoicing begins in the nation. The 32 campaigns to draft Tebow go back to regular business.

Some very bitter college football fans who lost to Florida are extremely pissed, and write some fantastically overwrought rants. Check this one out. That one is so overheated, so over the top, it must have been designed over the course of several days or several minutes.

Anyhow... I am pretty irritated with myself. How the hell did I fall prey to such a simple diversionary ploy? At ripe old age of 43, after 30 years of observing the sports media, how did I buy into this stunt?

Because I am one those guys campaigning for my team to take Tebow, that's why. Still I should have been smarter about this.

I want Mel Kiper Jr.'s video track record on YouTube.com

Memo to ESPN:

In the spirit of full disclosure, transparency and accountability, I would like you to dig up the video tapes of Mel Kiper Jr.'s reviews and ratings on the following Quarterback candidates for the NFL draft:

1. David Kilingler Bengals 1992
2. Tommy Maddox Broncos 1992
3. Dave Brown Giants 1992
4. Rick Mirer Seahawks 1993
5. Heath Shuler Redskins 1994
6. Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1997
7. Ryan Leaf Chargers 1998
8. Tim Couch Browns 1999
9. Akili Smith Bengals 1999
10. Cade McNown Bears 1999
11. David Carr Texans 2002
12. Joey Harrington Lions 2002
13. Patrick Ramsey Redskins 2002
14. Byron Leftwich Jaguars 2003
15. Kyle Boller Ravens 2003
16. Rex Grossman Bears 2003
17. J.P. Losman Bills 2004
18. Alex Smith 49ers 2005
19. Jason Campbell Redskins 2005
20. JaMarcus Russell Raiders 2007
21. Brady Quinn Browns 2007

I would have expected someone to have posted these videos on the YouTube.com already, but such is not the case. I looked hard, but could find no trace of these videos. Has the record been expunged? Did someone post a few of these embaressing videos? Did you order YouTube.com to remove these videos for copyright violations?

If Mel Kiper Jr. is as good as you pretend he is, then you have nothing to hide. You can post these historical videos proudly as a sign of confidence in Kiper's ability to detect and warn the NFL of dud quarterbacks. He will provide us with the correct diagnostic. On the other hand, if Mel Kiper Jr. is what I say he is--the Pastor Benny Hinn of the NFL Draft--he will probably say some things in those videos that would cause NFL fans to howl with laughter in retrospect.

I seem to recall glowing praise for some QBs like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch and David Carr. Hearing the words of Kiper once again on names such as those listed above might prove extremely damaging to Mel Kiper Jr.'s status as the doyen of draft gurus.

Reliving the words of Kiper Jr. will be highly instructional in this fine year of 2010 when your cohort are driving the stock of a fellow like Jimmy Clausen way up the board. Reliving the words of Kiper regarding these legendary busts in NFL Draft history would provide us with a grain of salt to temper current words of praise for future busts.

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.

Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback

Michael Lombardi has quoted Bill Walsh many times saying "Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Even fewer are qualified to coach the position." We have established that Walsh was explicitly crapping on NFL talent scouts like Mel Kiper Jr when he said this.

Jeeeze! Why do you think a nice guy like Bill Walsh would say such a nasty thing like that about a guy like Mel Kiper Jr?

You know hind sight is 20/20. I think Bill was absolutely justified in saying this because over the 28 years of my study period we had:

• 38 first round QBs that absolutely went bust
• 22 first round QBs that made it
• 6 first round QBs that are middle-of-the-road cases, partial busts, partial success stories.
• 10 drafts in which no 1st round QBs were successful
• 32 ProBowl (or better) QBs selected outside the first round
• 4 undrafted QBs who turned into All-Pro guys

When you consider this stunning pile of facts, you have to wonder if somebody blind folded these scouts, spun them round-n-round, and put darts in their hands. The darts went all over the place. Dave's Law says that NFL QB success is randomly distributed with respect to talent scout grades.

This is not to mention the 9 QBs enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who were not first rounders.

The history of successful quarterbacks in the NFL is a true bugbear for the NFL Talent Scout. Nothing proves the tremendous fallibility of Mel Kiper Jr. better than the success rate of QBs in the first round over the course of the past 30 or so seasons.

Now that we have categorically proven that these fine chaps (like Mel Kiper Jr.) do not know what the fuck they are talking about, let us now consider the 2010 NFL Draft.

Kiper tells us that Tim Tebow is not NFL Quarterback material. Kiper tells us that Jimmy Clausen is a pro-system kid who is (perhaps) the most NFL ready QB in the draft. In view of all the facts that I have sited above, are you inclined to believe him?

I for one, do not believe him. I believe he is absolutely and completely wrong about this. I believe he is 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong about this. I mean to tell you he has a 0.00% chance of being even 0.001% right about this juxtaposition. I mean dead wrong and not even remotely close to being right.

I can site a stunning record of error which impeaches Mel Kiper Jr.'s credibility completely.

The terrible falibility of NFL scouts, Part IV

Well, friend, we have reached the final chapter in the scouting saga. We're going to talk about recent undrafted QBs who have turned out pretty well. Consider the following names:

1. Kurt Warner undrafted 1994
2. Jeff Garcia undrafted 1994
3. Jake Delhomme undrafted 1997
4. Tony Romo undrafted 2003

There are a bunch of Pro Bowl elections shared by the four men on that list. In particular, Warner is a two time league MVP, Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowler, and considered a future Hall of Famer. Jake Delhomme also piloted his Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance... and a near victory. Unfortunately, a need for Tommy John surgery destroyed his career.

When you stop to think that both Heath Shueler and Trent Dilfer were drafted high in the 1st round while both Warner and Garcia were undrafted in 1994, you recognize that another massive scouting failure took place. Mel Kiper jr... What can I say about that guy. He was clearly on duty in 1994. You can go back to the ESPN vaults and see him licking Shueler's balls. You won't find him talking about Warner or Garcia in 1994.

Why is that? His methodology is bad, that's why! If he had a valid approach to doing business, he wouldn't miss quarterbacks like this. Let's just admit it. Regarding quarterbacks, Kiper jr gets it wrong much more than he gets it right. You should not pay any attention to what this dude says. He is a false prophet.

The terrible falibility of NFL scouts, Part III

There are 23 quarterbacks enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton Ohio. True believers might think they were all #1 draft picks. Perish the thought! The Canton Roster is one of the greatest points proving the terrible fallibility of men like Mel Kiper Jr. Consider the following names:

1. Fran Tarkenton 3rd round pick
2. Dan Fouts 3rd round pick
   
3. Norm Van Brocklin 4th round pick
4. Sonny Jurgensen 4th round pick
5. Bob Waterfield 5th round pick
   
6. John Unitas 9th round pick
   
7. Roger Staubach 10th round pick
8. Bart Starr 17th round pick
9. Warren Moon Undrafted

That is a pretty nasty list, if you are a talent scout. Every one of these men constitutes a clear-cut case of NFL scouting failure. A future Hall of Famer was not identified as such. A gem was missed.

I can just hear guys like Kiper screaming "That's not fair! Nobody could have known that a short scrambler like Tarkenton would do what he did!" That is only because you have settled upon the wrong criteria. The doctrines you subscribe to (measurable & tangibles) are false idols. Your ideology is wrong. Your organizational paradigm is poor.

NFL talent scouts are horrendously fallible & notoriously unreliable because they believe in false doctrines, use bad criteria, and subscribe to the wrong paradigm. That's why we can't trust your judgment.

The terrible falibility of NFL scouts, Part II

I am on a crusade to impeach the credibility of guys like Mel Kiper Jr. I am on this quest, because this mission is long overdue. Mel Kiper Jr is to the NFL Draft what Benny Hinn is to Christianity: He is the fake healer. If you have a disease, one of the worst things you can do is go to Hinn for a faith healing. If you are rebuilding a football team, one of the worst things you can do is listen to Kiper's advice on the draft.

I don't know how two guys can get it so wrong so many times and still maintain some level of religious faith & street cred among the people. Yet the two of them have made a lot more money than I functioning in a craft they ain't got no gift for. This may be Captain Ahab's quest, but I am going for it any way. I am sick and tired of hearing bullshit from Kiper--especially about QBs--as if it were the authoritative word of God.

I have completed the second phase of my research project into Quarterbacks in the NFL draft. I have studied the drafted and the undrafted. I have compiled a list of all Pro-Bowl elected QBs not drafted in the 1st round. Let me show you this list:

Scoutting Failures
	Name	Year	Round	Pick	Comment
1	Joe Montana	1979	3	82	Bottom of the third
2	Neil Lomax	1981	2	33	Pro Bowl
3	Wade Wilson	1981	8	210	Pro Bowl
4	Boomer Esiason	1984	2	38	MVP Pro Bowl QB
5	Jeff Hostetler	1984	3	59	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
6	Jay Schroeder	1984	3	83	Pro Bowl
7	Randall Cunningham	1985	2	37	Pro Bowl
8	Steve Bono	1985	6	142	Pro Bowl
9	Doug Flutie	1985	11	285	Pro Bowl
10	Mark Rypien	1986	6	146	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
11	Rich Gannon	1987	4	98	MVP Pro Bowl
12	Steve Beuerlein	1987	4	110	Pro Bowl
13	Don Majkowski	1987	10	255	Pro Bowl
14	Chris Chandler	1988	3	76	Pro Bowl
15	Neil O'Donnell	1990	3	71	Pro Bowl
16	Brett Favre	1991	2	33	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
17	Jeff Blake	1992	6	166	Pro Bowl
18	Brad Johnson	1992	9	227	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
19	Mark Brunell	1993	5	118	Pro Bowl
20	Elvis Grbac	1993	8	219	Pro Bowl
21	Trent Green	1993	8	222	Pro Bowl
22	Gus Frerotte	1994	7	197	Pro Bowl
23	Kordell Stewart	1995	2	60	Pro Bowl
24	Jake Plummer	1997	2	42	Pro Bowl
25	Brian Griese	1998	3	91	Pro Bowl
26	Matt Hasselbeck	1998	6	187	Pro Bowl
27	Marc Bulger	2000	6	168	Pro Bowl
28	Tom Brady	2000	6	199	MVP, Pro Bowl, Super Bowl
29	Drew Brees	2001	2	32	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
30	David Garrard	2002	4	108	Pro Bowl
31	Matt Schaub	2004	3	90	Pro Bowl
32	Derek Anderson	2005	6	213	Pro Bowl

The HTML didn't turn out so great, but that doesn't matter. What matters is some of the highly noteworthy names on that list. Each one of those guys was a lot better than several busted 1st round picks taken well ahead of them. I submit to you that each and every time a QB on this list was drafted, we witnessed an instance of scouting failure.

Why?

The answer is simple: Because highly touted 1st round QBs were selected ahead of these men, and many of those guys went bust. When a scout hypes up a 1st rounder who goes bust, and misses completely on high-quality kids later on, a serious evaluation error has taken place. Somebody--a talent scout--made a really bad awful mistake. A turd was considered a gem. A gem was mistaken for a turd, or the gem was missed entirely. A bust QB is never worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him as a bust, you failed. A Pro Bowl QB is worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him, as such, you failed.

Anyone involved in industrial production or software design would understand that this outcome is unacceptable. You can't throw out good widgets and select bad ones as good. Doing so will fuck up the process for sure, and so it is with the NFL Draft.

Now the scouts may be wont to absolve themselves from blame. They may declare that the GMs and HCs are not listening to them. Bullshit! Most GMs and HCs draft according to what the scouts tell them. When they make out their draft boards, they do so almost entirely on the basis of scouting data. Scouting data is the premise for the pick almost every time. There are a few very unusual exceptions, but they are rare.

Answer me these questions:

• How did Jack Thompson and Steve Fuller get drafted ahead of Joe Montana?
• How did Rich Campbell and Dave Wilson get drafted ahead of Neil Lomax & Wade Wilson?
• How did Chuck Long get drafted 134 picks higher than Mark Rypien?
• How did Kelly Stouffer get selected 92 slots higher than Rich Gannon?
• How did Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich get selected ahead of Brett Favre?
• How did David Klingler and Tommy Maddox get select 202+ picks higher than Brad Johnson?
• How did Rick Mirer get selected #2 overall and how did Mark Brunell get selected #118 in the 5th round? How did Mirer go ahead of Trent Green (#222 8th round)?
  
• How did Jim Druckenmiller go ahead of Jake Plummer?
• How did Ryan Leaf get drafted #2 overall and Matt Hasselbeck get drafted #187 in the 6th round?
• How did Tom Brady and Marc Bulger get drafted in the 6th round?
• How did Michael Vick go ahead of Drew Brees in 2001?

The answer is exactly the same in each and everyone of these cases: A monumental case of scouting failure occured. Guys just like Mel Kiper Jr, and Mel himself, fucked up. That's what happened.

Last time out, I established that 66 QBs had been drafted over our 28 year study period. Only 22 of those guys were clear-cut franchise QBs, 38 were clear cut busts, and 6 were indeterminate journeymen. Now we have another figure to identify: 32 missed ProBowl QBs.

Is the picture becoming clear to you? Are you begining to see the big picture? Do you grasp the meaning and implications of these figures. The scouts have a very crappy percentage. They are extremely fallible. They fuck up much more often than they get it right. Their judgment is unreliable.

Next time, we are going to talk about the biggest QB scouting errors of them all: Undrafted ProBowl QBs.