I demand a recount! Quarterbacks in the 1st round over the past 30 years.

I made the following statement many times on my blog: Quarterbacks selected in the 1st round have only a 33% chance of success in the NFL. This is based on the assessment that 33% of the QBs selected in the 1st round over the past 30 years were ultimately successful in the NFL.

Well, I am afraid I must print a retraction. I was wrong. It's worse than I originally thought. I collected the data afresh, and reconsidered the information I found there. After serious consideration, and a fresh recount, the score is as follows. Quarterbacks were selected between 1979 and 2007. Of those 67, 20 were ultimately successful, 39 were busts, 8 were fair-to-middlin' journeymen in the league. This means the following:

• 29.85% of the quarterbacks selected in the 1st round were successful
• 58.21% were all-out busts
• 11.94% were middle-of-the-road journeymen

This is bad, very bad. I don't wish to labor the point anymore. Instead, I want to publish the raw table of information, so you yourself can consider the merits of my assessment.

#	Name	School	Year	Team	Overall	Rating
1	Jack Thompason	Washington State	1979	Bengals	3	Bust
2	Phil Simms	Morehead State	1979	Giants	7	Success
3	Steve Fuller	Clemson	1979	Chiefs	23	Bust
4	Marc Wilson	BYU	1980	Raiders	15	Bust
5	Mark Malone	Arizona State	1980	Steelers	28	Bust
6	Rich Campbell	California	1981	Packers	6	Bust
7	Dave Wilson	Illinois	1981	Saints	Supplemental	Bust
8	Art Schlichter	Ohio State	1982	Colts	4	Bust
9	Jim McMahon	BYU	1982	Bears	5	Success
10	John Elway	Stanford	1983	Colts	1	Success
11	Todd Blackledge	Penn State	1983	Chiefs	7	Bust
12	Jim Kelly	Miami	1983	Bills	14	Success
13	Tony Eason	Illinois	1983	Patriots	15	Bust
14	Ken O'Brien	UC Davis	1983	Jets	24	Success
15	Dan Marino	Pittsburg	1983	Dolphins	27	Success
16	Bernie Kosar	Miami	1985	Browns	Supplemental	Success
17	Jim Everett	Purdue	1986	Oilers	3	Success
18	Chuck Long	Iowa	1986	Lions	12	Bust
19	Vinny Testaverde	Miami	1987	Buccaneers	1	Middle
20	Kelly Stouffer	Colorado State	1987	Cardinals	6	Bust
21	Chris Miller	Oregon	1987	Falcons	13	Success
22	Jim Harbaugh	Michigan	1987	Bears	26	Middle
23	Troy Aikman	UCLA	1989	Cowboys	1	Success
24	Steve Walsh	Miami	1989	Cowboys	Supplemental	Bust
25	Timm Rosenbach	Washington State	1989	Cardinals	Supplemental	Bust
26	Jeff George	Illinois	1990	Colts	1	Bust
27	Andre Ware	Houston	1990	Lions	7	Bust
28	Dan McGwire	San Diego State	1991	Seahawks	16	Bust
29	Todd Marinovich	USC	1991	Raiders	24	Bust
30	David Klingler	Houston	1992	Bengals	6	Bust
31	Tommy Maddox	UCLA	1992	Broncos	25	Bust
32	Dave Brown	Duke	1992	Giants	Supplemental	Bust
33	Drew Bledsoe	Washington State	1993	Patriots	1	Success
34	Rick Mirer	Notre Dame	1993	Seahawks	2	Bust
35	Heath Shuler	Tennessee	1994	Redskins	3	Bust
36	Trent Dilfer	Fresno State	1994	Buccaneers	6	Middle
37	Steve McNair	Alcorn State	1995	Oilers	3	Success
38	Kerry Colins	Penn State	1995	Panthers	5	Middle
39	Jim Druckenmiller	Virgina Tech	1997	49ers	26	Bust
40	Peyton Manning	Tennessee	1998	Colts	1	Success
41	Ryan Leaf	Washington State	1998	Chargers	2	Bust
42	Tim Couch	Kentucky	1999	Browns	1	Bust
43	Donovan McNabb	Syracuse	1999	Eagles	2	Success
44	Akili Smith	Oregon	1999	Bengals	3	Bust
45	Daunte Culpepper	Central Florida	1999	Vikings	11	Bust
46	Cade McNown	UCLA	1999	Bears	12	Bust
47	Chad Pennington	Marshall	2000	Jets	18	Middle
48	Michael Vick	Virgina Tech	2001	Falcons	1	Middle
49	David Carr	Fresno State	2002	Texans	1	Bust
50	Joey Harrington	Oregon	2002	Lions	3	Bust
51	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	2002	Redskins	32	Bust
52	Carson Palmer	USC	2003	Bengals	1	Middle
53	Byron Leftwich	Marshall	2003	Jaguars	7	Bust
54	Kyle Boller	California	2003	Ravens	19	Bust
55	Rex Grossman	Florida	2003	Bears	22	Bust
56	Eli Manning	Ole Miss	2004	Chargers	1	Success
57	Philip Rivers	North Carolina State	2004	Giants	4	Success
58	Ben Roethlisberger	Miami of Ohio	2004	Steelers	11	Success
59	J.P. Losman	Tulane	2004	Bills	22	Bust
60	Alex Smith	Utah	2005	49ers	1	Bust
61	Aaron Rodgers	California	2005	Packers	24	Success
62	Jason Campbell	Alburn	2005	Redskins	25	Bust
63	Vince Young	Texas	2006	Titans	3	Success
64	Matt Leinart	USC	2006	Cardinals	10	Middle
65	Jay Cutler	Vanderbilt	2006	Broncos	11	Success
66	JaMarcus Russell	LSU	2007	Raiders	1	Bust
67	Brady Quinn	Notre Dame	2007	Browns	22	Bust
						39	20	8
						58.21%	29.85%	11.94%

Honestly, I see only one disputable case on this list. I rank Carson Palmer as a middle guy. Bengals fans would complain. The fact is that he sat for year to start his career. Things looked good for a short time. Then the knee injury struck. Things have not been the same since. The Bengals' passing attack fell precipitously last year. Many are asking questions.

I want Mel Kiper Jr.'s video track record on YouTube.com

Memo to ESPN:

In the spirit of full disclosure, transparency and accountability, I would like you to dig up the video tapes of Mel Kiper Jr.'s reviews and ratings on the following Quarterback candidates for the NFL draft:

1. David Kilingler Bengals 1992
2. Tommy Maddox Broncos 1992
3. Dave Brown Giants 1992
4. Rick Mirer Seahawks 1993
5. Heath Shuler Redskins 1994
6. Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1997
7. Ryan Leaf Chargers 1998
8. Tim Couch Browns 1999
9. Akili Smith Bengals 1999
10. Cade McNown Bears 1999
11. David Carr Texans 2002
12. Joey Harrington Lions 2002
13. Patrick Ramsey Redskins 2002
14. Byron Leftwich Jaguars 2003
15. Kyle Boller Ravens 2003
16. Rex Grossman Bears 2003
17. J.P. Losman Bills 2004
18. Alex Smith 49ers 2005
19. Jason Campbell Redskins 2005
20. JaMarcus Russell Raiders 2007
21. Brady Quinn Browns 2007

I would have expected someone to have posted these videos on the YouTube.com already, but such is not the case. I looked hard, but could find no trace of these videos. Has the record been expunged? Did someone post a few of these embaressing videos? Did you order YouTube.com to remove these videos for copyright violations?

If Mel Kiper Jr. is as good as you pretend he is, then you have nothing to hide. You can post these historical videos proudly as a sign of confidence in Kiper's ability to detect and warn the NFL of dud quarterbacks. He will provide us with the correct diagnostic. On the other hand, if Mel Kiper Jr. is what I say he is--the Pastor Benny Hinn of the NFL Draft--he will probably say some things in those videos that would cause NFL fans to howl with laughter in retrospect.

I seem to recall glowing praise for some QBs like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch and David Carr. Hearing the words of Kiper once again on names such as those listed above might prove extremely damaging to Mel Kiper Jr.'s status as the doyen of draft gurus.

Reliving the words of Kiper Jr. will be highly instructional in this fine year of 2010 when your cohort are driving the stock of a fellow like Jimmy Clausen way up the board. Reliving the words of Kiper regarding these legendary busts in NFL Draft history would provide us with a grain of salt to temper current words of praise for future busts.

The only time it ever worked out, Dallas and Troy Aikman

Each and every year, a team fresh off a disastrous season selects #1 overall in the NFL Draft. This fine year of 2010, that team is is my Rams. Many times, this team fresh off of disaster elects a quarterback with that first overall pick in the draft. When they do so, they are full of hopes and dreams that this guy will turn the ship around, raise the fortunes of the team, lead them to many Super Bowl victories, and make a dynasty out of a poor team. The young man is anointed as the savior of the franchise.

How often does it work out? I can find only one clear-cut case in NFL history where it did work out. That fellow was Troy Aikman of UCLA, selected #1 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the 1989 NFL Draft.

It wasn't Terry Bradshaw. He was considered a bust for a bunch of seasons before the 1978 rules changes, changed his fortunes as a passer. He still threw about 27 TDs and 24 Ints per season after that.

We also have problems with Peyton Manning here, but the Colts cannot truly be considered a dynasty at this point. They have a bunch of good seasons, but only 1 Super Bowl victory. Peyton could still lock down a couple more rings before he is done. If so, we will be able to say that there were two clear cut cases, but at this moment there is only one.

What about John Elway? Did that really work out for the Colts who drafted him? No.

What about Jim Plunkett? Did that really work out for the Patriots who drafted him? Hummmm... Nah, not really. It worked okay for the Raiders... eventually.

What about Eli Manning? Did that work out for the Chargers who took him? No.

What about Michael Vick? Aaaahhhh... How do you think the Falcons view that pick now?

How about JaMarcus Russell?

No folks, there is only one clear cut case where drafting a QB at the top of the first round ever produced a savior, a Hall Of Famer, multi-championship dynasty, and everything the organization ever wanted when they took the guy. That was Troy Aikman.

This is the reason why Aikman is still the Golden Boy of the NFL. This is why he is revered as a god-like QB by all those who watched his career. This is why people keep wondering if he is going to run for president someday. They expect him to win, too.

Aikman shouldered the pressure of being the Dallas Cowboy QB and savior with little signs of stress. He took one hell of beating in his first year as a pro with few signs of injury. He survived with his confidence and his health intact. He was accepted by Cowboy greats like Roger Staubach immediately as another Cowboy great. He was at his best in the NFC Championship games and Super Bowls. He led the Cowboys on a tear through the 1990s. They won 3 Super Bowls in just 4 years. They would have had more, but the salary cap and poor head coaches killed them. Aikman was not the limiting factor in the equation at any time. He survived a nasty concussion administered by Dennis Brown. He never had a personal scandal during his entire life. He went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He was one hell of player, and a better man.

As my Rams get ready to draft in this fine year of 2010, we need to ask ourselves a couple of very important questions:

1. Is Sam Bradford Troy Aikman?
2. Is Jimmy Clausen Troy Aikman?
3. Is Sam Bradford Peyton Manning?
4. Is Jimmy Clausen Peyton Manning?

I think the answers to 1 & 3 are clear and decisive "NO!" I rolled around on the floor laughing my ass off a few seconds ago when I wrote questions #2 and #4. Clausen is in no danger of being mistaken for Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning. Why don't you stand Clausen next to Aikman right now and see whether you notice some difference between these two men?

Some extremely foolish Ram fans may protest that I cannot downgrade these two candidates by comparing them to the most extreme cases of QB success in NFL history. Oh yeah? Why the hell not? You are talking about spending the #1 pick overall in the entire draft. We have only 1 and maybe 2 models of success for that pick. We need to use those two guys as the benchmark comparison for our candidates. If we don't have candidates that look like Aikman and Manning, we need to pass on them with that #1 pick.

One final thing. If you ask me which quarterback in this draft most resembles Aikman in terms of tangibles and intangibles, only one name comes to mind: Tim Tebow.

Is Bill Devaney right to disdain drafting a QB in the first round?

I'll give you a short answer and a long answer. The short answer is: Fuck yes!

I published a study of 28 years of NFL Draft history in 4 pieces right here on this website. The subject was the Quarterback position. 66 QBs were drafted in the 1st round over the 28 year period between 1979 and 2007. Only 22 of those men succeeded and became substantial franchise QBs. 6 of those players became middle-of-the-road, partial busts and partial success stories. They were journeymen of a sort. 38 of those players were all-out busts. Only twice did drafting a QB #1 overall workout for the team who took him: Cowboy Troy Aikman, and Colt Peyton Manning. Only once did selecting a QB as the top overall pick result in a dynasty. That was Aikman.

As you can see, the stats are pretty damn terrible. 22-38-6 is the record for taking quarterbacks in the 1st round. This record defines the probability tables. If you take a QB in the first round, you have only a 33% chance of getting a good one. If you take the QB at the top of the heap, it gets worse. If you reach for a QB at the top of the heap, it gets a lot worse. If you select a true junior QB in the first round, you have a 90% chance of losing before any other considerations.

You could stop right there and conclude that selecting a QB in the first round is a dumb idea. Of course, there are unique cases like Aikman and Manning. Everybody wants one of those. You might even be able to deal for a disgruntled Elway or Eli Manning. That is pretty good also. Unfortunately there are guys like Carr, Klingler, Russell, Ware, George, Couch, et al who can seriously trip you up.

The table says that there is a lot of risk. The scouts say that this is a bad QB year. Every QB in the draft has sizable knocks on him:

• Bradford: Gracile and fragile, did not play much a senior. Has a surgically repaired shoulder. Will need a powerful offensive line to protect him. Comes out of a spread offense
• Clausen: A true junior, and has a 90% chance of going bust. Had only 1 really productive year. Erratic footwork. Three-Quarter release of the football. Comes off as abrasive and egotistical.
• McCoy: Too small. Has a modest arm. Injured in his last college game. Comes out of a spread offense.
• Tebow: Comes out of a spread offense. Bad footwork. Long windup in his throwing motion. Does not have a quick release.

So there are your top 4 guys scheduled to be selected in the first 2 rounds. As I have said so many times before, the only one of those 4 guys I really and truly trust is Tim Tebow. I would take him in the 2nd round. After him it is Colt McCoy. I would take him in the 2nd round also. I like Bradford, but only for a team like the Jets with an all-pro offensive line. His draft stock is unfortunately high. His stars are poorly aligned. He will probably go to a team with a lousy line. This spells a lot of trouble for him in his career. I regret that.

When you sum up the lousy odds of getting a good QB in the first round, the poor crop of first round QBs in this years draft, the rich crop of later QBs, I think all NFL GMs are fully justified in rejecting the proposition of selecting a QB in the first round. There are stupid fans who would select any QB in the 1st round just because there is a need. That is an exceedingly stupid policy, and the kind of think that creates JaMarcus Russell stories.