I published a study of 28 years of NFL Draft history in 4 pieces right here on this website. The subject was the Quarterback position. 66 QBs were drafted in the 1st round over the 28 year period between 1979 and 2007. Only 22 of those men succeeded and became substantial franchise QBs. 6 of those players became middle-of-the-road, partial busts and partial success stories. They were journeymen of a sort. 38 of those players were all-out busts. Only twice did drafting a QB #1 overall workout for the team who took him: Cowboy Troy Aikman, and Colt Peyton Manning. Only once did selecting a QB as the top overall pick result in a dynasty. That was Aikman.
As you can see, the stats are pretty damn terrible. 22-38-6 is the record for taking quarterbacks in the 1st round. This record defines the probability tables. If you take a QB in the first round, you have only a 33% chance of getting a good one. If you take the QB at the top of the heap, it gets worse. If you reach for a QB at the top of the heap, it gets a lot worse. If you select a true junior QB in the first round, you have a 90% chance of losing before any other considerations.
You could stop right there and conclude that selecting a QB in the first round is a dumb idea. Of course, there are unique cases like Aikman and Manning. Everybody wants one of those. You might even be able to deal for a disgruntled Elway or Eli Manning. That is pretty good also. Unfortunately there are guys like Carr, Klingler, Russell, Ware, George, Couch, et al who can seriously trip you up.
The table says that there is a lot of risk. The scouts say that this is a bad QB year. Every QB in the draft has sizable knocks on him:
- Bradford: Gracile and fragile, did not play much a senior. Has a surgically repaired shoulder. Will need a powerful offensive line to protect him. Comes out of a spread offense
- Clausen: A true junior, and has a 90% chance of going bust. Had only 1 really productive year. Erratic footwork. Three-Quarter release of the football. Comes off as abrasive and egotistical.
- McCoy: Too small. Has a modest arm. Injured in his last college game. Comes out of a spread offense.
- Tebow: Comes out of a spread offense. Bad footwork. Long windup in his throwing motion. Does not have a quick release.
So there are your top 4 guys scheduled to be selected in the first 2 rounds. As I have said so many times before, the only one of those 4 guys I really and truly trust is Tim Tebow. I would take him in the 2nd round. After him it is Colt McCoy. I would take him in the 2nd round also. I like Bradford, but only for a team like the Jets with an all-pro offensive line. His draft stock is unfortunately high. His stars are poorly aligned. He will probably go to a team with a lousy line. This spells a lot of trouble for him in his career. I regret that.
When you sum up the lousy odds of getting a good QB in the first round, the poor crop of first round QBs in this years draft, the rich crop of later QBs, I think all NFL GMs are fully justified in rejecting the proposition of selecting a QB in the first round. There are stupid fans who would select any QB in the 1st round just because there is a need. That is an exceedingly stupid policy, and the kind of think that creates JaMarcus Russell stories.
