VanRam wrote a nice little blog about relocation and the Rams, and I thought I would comment at some length. At least, in a longer form than permitted by blog replies.
At the moment, St. Louis based fans and naive types are certain that the Rams are staying in St. Louis for the foreseeable future. Who knows what our grandchildren will see, but for our lifetimes, the Rams will be in St. Louis.
Really?
I like the fact that VanRam is aware of the complexity and duplicity of reality. He is aware of the fact that Shahid Khan is not yet the owner of the Rams. He is also aware of the fact that no man in his right mind would ever tell you he was moving a football team when he has 2 years (minimum) left to play in a location. Being a relatively brilliant self-made billionaire, Shahid Khan would not scupper the market for the next two years for the sake of something so stupid as public honesty if he did have plans to move. Billionaires have been known to lie with a straight face whenever it is in their best financial interests to do so.
VanRam is aware of the fact that there is a very tense labor situation developing right now. The cost of running an NFL team may well go up. There is such a thing as the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario looks like this:
- The Players do not agree to any salary cap
- There is no salary floor
- There is no franchise or transitional tag
- We have baseball style free agency
- The owners do not renew and/or sharply reduce revenue sharing among teams
- We have NBA-style contract-dollar trades as a matter of regular business in the NFL
Such an outcome would be terrible for the 53-54th largest market in the United States... especially when the 2nd largest market is calling... and somebody just laid down $750 million to buy the team. This doesn't bode well for any of the smaller market teams. Teams in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Tampa would automatically become non-competitive.
The football world hinges on the negotiations currently taking place between NFL labor and NFL management. If the worst case scenario comes to pass, or even two or three elements of the worst case scenario become reality, we will see a period of franchise movement the likes of which you have never seen. Los Angeles won't have one team but two. If San Diego looses the Chargers they can replace them in less than 3 weeks. Chicago will have two teams. Houston might even get a second. Las Vegas will get a team. The foundations will quiver and quake as the mayflower trucks roll out of the small markets.
I don't like firing up my brothers in St. Louis with anxiety and anger. I am just making you aware of the realities of business in this world. The Rams have to stay put, probably for the next 2-3 seasons. That being the case, ownership can and will say nothing to scupper the market, regardless of the real plan.
There is another reality that you must consider. 24 of 32 votes must approve Khan's bid. Each of those men have an agenda. The NFL has stated for 16 years that it is a top priority to get back into the Los Angeles market. The 49ers might like their southern rivals back again. The Cards, Seahawks, and 49ers might like shorter travel times, less time zone hopping, and natural grass. The NFL might want to play Super Bowl 50 in Los Angeles in 2016.
Don't take solace in Ed Roski's desire to have a team in Los Angeles by 2011. I have heard many a report which says that time table is way too aggressive to work out. Few believe the stadium can be finished, and made game-ready, in less than 2 years even under ideal circumstances. Things have a tendency to get delayed here in laid-back Los Angeles. Expect 2012.
Another point that a few of my Lawyer friends have pointed out: The Rams can get up and walk out of the Edward Jones Dome any time they want. They just have to be ready to pay contractual penalties; that's all. There is nothing that magical about the year 2012, 2014 or 2016. It's just a technical question of price. The price is not really that big of a deal if you stand to make a lot more money on the other side. We don't care how much it costs, we just care how much it makes.
