PredictionMachine.com

As I was headed home from work today, I heard the manager/creator of PredictionMachine.com giving the results of his computer simulation of SB44 to the general populace of Southern California. What were they?

Predictalator ran the Super Bowl 50,000 times. Based on this simulation the following probabilities emerged:

1. The Colts won 51.4% of the matches
2. The Saints won 48.6% of those matches
3. The average score was 28-27 Colts
4. The Colts averaged 398 yards of offense
5. The Saints averaged 376 yards of offense
6. Manning threw for 306 yards
7. Brees threw for 258 yards.
8. Manning finishes with QB rating of 92.2
9. Brees finishes with a QB rating of 96.1
   
10. 5 Colts have more than 2 catches
11. 7 Saints have more than 2 catches
    
12. The Saints average 13 more yards in penalties.
13. The Colts fail to cover the point spread (4.5 points) in more than 60% of their victories.
    

Once again, if I were giving you some friendly betting advice, I would tell you to take the Saints and the points. The Saints won 48.6% of the simulations. The Colts failed to cover in 60% of their victories in this simulation. You gotta like them odds. You have a better than 75% chance of making money if you do as I tell you.

So what do I think of all this? It is plausible, but not as authoritative as the Madden Simulator. PredictionMachine.com gives us a lot of basic data that seems to make sense. The absolute final point of all this simulation is that this is an unbelievably tight matchup that can go either way.

Those who believe the Colts are a big-time favorite are suffering a world class case of human bias. They are being overawed by the ledgend of Manning at the moment when he is becoming recognized as the greatest of all-time. The first rule of accurate prediction is getting human bias, including hero worship, out of the picture. The nice thing about all computer software packages that they are not vulnerable to hero worship.

The numbers and the simulations speak loudly: This is an incredibly close match. It should be a heart-attack thriller.