Forget about it.
History teaches us that selecting a QB in the 1st round is 50/50 proposition at best... if he is a senior. If you select an underclassman, the bust percentage increases to 90%. This is for a simple reason: You need more education, development, and maturity at the QB position than any other. Immaturity kills at this position, especially with the ultra-pressure that accompanies being a high-draft QB in the NFL.
Jimmy Clausen is a true Junior. That means he has a 90% chance of going bust, this according to the actuarial tables. This is the first fact to consider before any other considerations. Now just chew on that percentage for awhile and tell me that you want to use the #1 pick in the draft the select Jimmy Clausen.
Many have challenged me when I have declared that Clausen has the highest bust potential of any kid in the Draft. The Irish Alumni, in particular, have come after me with venom. They are doing a nice job of trying to back their candidate. I don't give a fuck what you say. His odds of making it in the NFL suck, period.
Weren't Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford juniors last season? Yep, they were, but Sanchez was not a true Junior. He was already senior in age, and he had already graduated. Stafford was a true Junior.
Didn't they both make it? Don't jump to conclusions. We don't know that. The truth about these young men will not be known for several years. However, suppose that both of them have "made it": are you now prepared to temp the statistical tables with a third gamble on a true junior with only a 10% chance of victory?
There is another factor to consider. When you compare Clausen to Sanchez or Stafford, it is clear that he ain't no Stafford or Sanchez. Both of those guys are a lot more athletic and mobile, they have greater arm strength, and greater intangibles. If these two guys had come out this year, Clausen would be in a distant 4th place in QB rankings, and headed for definite 2nd or 3rd round status. You just don't select a player like that #1 overall. If you do, you are a stupid fool.
There are a number of yellow flags which even Clausen's advocates have raised regarding him. A very favorable critic can be read here raising these yellow flags.
- Throws longer than 40 tend to be late and fluttery
- Doesn't have the best footwork
- Executes a three quarter release that can cause problems
- Not very athletic, does not have the ability to run with the football
- Does not follow through on the little things, play action, fake rollouts, etc.
- Questionable personality: comes off as abrasive
I can honestly tell you that I saw plenty of Notre Dame games over the last three years. Never once did I consider Clausen to be a significant prospect for Sundays in the NFL. He just didn't impress me. As a freshmen, he looked like a kid in deep shit, way over his head. As a sophomore, I don't think he started to "get it" until later in the season. As a junior he put together a few significant games: Like the one they lost to 6-5 USC where Notre Dame scored about 30 points. It should be noted that USC was rebuilding their defense like a moefoe this season.
Then Clausen's coach is fired for running a very tepid program.
Perhaps that resume looks good to you. It does not look good to me. It does not convince me that Clausen will beat-out an actuarial table that gives him only a 10% chance to succeed.
