The terrible falibility of NFL scouts, Part II

I am on a crusade to impeach the credibility of guys like Mel Kiper Jr. I am on this quest, because this mission is long overdue. Mel Kiper Jr is to the NFL Draft what Benny Hinn is to Christianity: He is the fake healer. If you have a disease, one of the worst things you can do is go to Hinn for a faith healing. If you are rebuilding a football team, one of the worst things you can do is listen to Kiper's advice on the draft.

I don't know how two guys can get it so wrong so many times and still maintain some level of religious faith & street cred among the people. Yet the two of them have made a lot more money than I functioning in a craft they ain't got no gift for. This may be Captain Ahab's quest, but I am going for it any way. I am sick and tired of hearing bullshit from Kiper--especially about QBs--as if it were the authoritative word of God.

I have completed the second phase of my research project into Quarterbacks in the NFL draft. I have studied the drafted and the undrafted. I have compiled a list of all Pro-Bowl elected QBs not drafted in the 1st round. Let me show you this list:

Scoutting Failures
	Name	Year	Round	Pick	Comment
1	Joe Montana	1979	3	82	Bottom of the third
2	Neil Lomax	1981	2	33	Pro Bowl
3	Wade Wilson	1981	8	210	Pro Bowl
4	Boomer Esiason	1984	2	38	MVP Pro Bowl QB
5	Jeff Hostetler	1984	3	59	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
6	Jay Schroeder	1984	3	83	Pro Bowl
7	Randall Cunningham	1985	2	37	Pro Bowl
8	Steve Bono	1985	6	142	Pro Bowl
9	Doug Flutie	1985	11	285	Pro Bowl
10	Mark Rypien	1986	6	146	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
11	Rich Gannon	1987	4	98	MVP Pro Bowl
12	Steve Beuerlein	1987	4	110	Pro Bowl
13	Don Majkowski	1987	10	255	Pro Bowl
14	Chris Chandler	1988	3	76	Pro Bowl
15	Neil O'Donnell	1990	3	71	Pro Bowl
16	Brett Favre	1991	2	33	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
17	Jeff Blake	1992	6	166	Pro Bowl
18	Brad Johnson	1992	9	227	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
19	Mark Brunell	1993	5	118	Pro Bowl
20	Elvis Grbac	1993	8	219	Pro Bowl
21	Trent Green	1993	8	222	Pro Bowl
22	Gus Frerotte	1994	7	197	Pro Bowl
23	Kordell Stewart	1995	2	60	Pro Bowl
24	Jake Plummer	1997	2	42	Pro Bowl
25	Brian Griese	1998	3	91	Pro Bowl
26	Matt Hasselbeck	1998	6	187	Pro Bowl
27	Marc Bulger	2000	6	168	Pro Bowl
28	Tom Brady	2000	6	199	MVP, Pro Bowl, Super Bowl
29	Drew Brees	2001	2	32	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
30	David Garrard	2002	4	108	Pro Bowl
31	Matt Schaub	2004	3	90	Pro Bowl
32	Derek Anderson	2005	6	213	Pro Bowl

The HTML didn't turn out so great, but that doesn't matter. What matters is some of the highly noteworthy names on that list. Each one of those guys was a lot better than several busted 1st round picks taken well ahead of them. I submit to you that each and every time a QB on this list was drafted, we witnessed an instance of scouting failure.

Why?

The answer is simple: Because highly touted 1st round QBs were selected ahead of these men, and many of those guys went bust. When a scout hypes up a 1st rounder who goes bust, and misses completely on high-quality kids later on, a serious evaluation error has taken place. Somebody--a talent scout--made a really bad awful mistake. A turd was considered a gem. A gem was mistaken for a turd, or the gem was missed entirely. A bust QB is never worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him as a bust, you failed. A Pro Bowl QB is worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him, as such, you failed.

Anyone involved in industrial production or software design would understand that this outcome is unacceptable. You can't throw out good widgets and select bad ones as good. Doing so will fuck up the process for sure, and so it is with the NFL Draft.

Now the scouts may be wont to absolve themselves from blame. They may declare that the GMs and HCs are not listening to them. Bullshit! Most GMs and HCs draft according to what the scouts tell them. When they make out their draft boards, they do so almost entirely on the basis of scouting data. Scouting data is the premise for the pick almost every time. There are a few very unusual exceptions, but they are rare.

Answer me these questions:

• How did Jack Thompson and Steve Fuller get drafted ahead of Joe Montana?
• How did Rich Campbell and Dave Wilson get drafted ahead of Neil Lomax & Wade Wilson?
• How did Chuck Long get drafted 134 picks higher than Mark Rypien?
• How did Kelly Stouffer get selected 92 slots higher than Rich Gannon?
• How did Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich get selected ahead of Brett Favre?
• How did David Klingler and Tommy Maddox get select 202+ picks higher than Brad Johnson?
• How did Rick Mirer get selected #2 overall and how did Mark Brunell get selected #118 in the 5th round? How did Mirer go ahead of Trent Green (#222 8th round)?
  
• How did Jim Druckenmiller go ahead of Jake Plummer?
• How did Ryan Leaf get drafted #2 overall and Matt Hasselbeck get drafted #187 in the 6th round?
• How did Tom Brady and Marc Bulger get drafted in the 6th round?
• How did Michael Vick go ahead of Drew Brees in 2001?

The answer is exactly the same in each and everyone of these cases: A monumental case of scouting failure occured. Guys just like Mel Kiper Jr, and Mel himself, fucked up. That's what happened.

Last time out, I established that 66 QBs had been drafted over our 28 year study period. Only 22 of those guys were clear-cut franchise QBs, 38 were clear cut busts, and 6 were indeterminate journeymen. Now we have another figure to identify: 32 missed ProBowl QBs.

Is the picture becoming clear to you? Are you begining to see the big picture? Do you grasp the meaning and implications of these figures. The scouts have a very crappy percentage. They are extremely fallible. They fuck up much more often than they get it right. Their judgment is unreliable.

Next time, we are going to talk about the biggest QB scouting errors of them all: Undrafted ProBowl QBs.