Tuesday, February 2, 2010

LeFevour or Tebow?

Some esteemed colleagues of mine, who dearly desire the best possible things for the Rams, have strongly urged that Bill Devaney take a hard look at Central Michigan University's Dan LeFevour. Many of these brethern believe that LeFevour is a much better prospect than Tim Tebow, and that he is vastly more NFL ready.

Not wanting to miss out on a diamond in the rough, I have investigated Dan LeFevour at some length. I also saw him play at the Senior Bowl. What have I found out? First the basics

Dan LeFevour
6'3" 230 Right Hander
March 19th, 1987 Pisces
Central Michigan University, MAC
4 year starter
4.72 40 time
Speed runner
Career QB Efficiency = 143.7

LeFevour played in a wide-open spread offense much like the one Tebow played in at Florida. The one significant difference is that CMU liked to go deep and get the big play a bit more frequently than Florida. Like Tebow, LeFevour was a 4 year starter. Like Tebow he is considered a dual-threat quarterback, both running and passing effectively. He played in the little Mid-America Conference, the same group that spawned Ben Rothelisburger.

LeFevour became just the second player in NCAA history (after Vince Young, Texas) to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. LeFevour joined Florida’s Tim Tebow as the only players in NCAA history to pass for 20 touchdowns (27) and score 20 touchdowns (19 rushing, 1 receiving) in the same season.

How does this compare with Tim Tebow?

Tim Tebow
6'3 236 Left Hander
August 14, 1987 Leo
University of Floria, SEC
4 year starter
4.82 40 time
Runner with great power
Career QB Efficiency = 176

Tebow played in the big and bad SEC, the Division of Champions. As we know, Florida won two national championships under his administration, and did so competing against a plethora of Sunday talent. He is also one of the most decorated players in college football history, winning most awards a QB can acquire.

After careful consideration, I am impressed by the similarities between these two young men. They seem almost like right handed and left handed mirror opposite images of each other. There are a few key differences. LeFevour is a tad faster. Tebow is the more powerful runner. LeFevour is rated as having decent throwing mechanics. Tebow has a long windup which many have complained about. LeFevour has sporadic accuracy issues. He tends to go hot and cold in terms of accuracy. Although Tebow has mechanical problems, this according to the critics, he has never had problems with accuracy.

Both of these gents have long highlight reels. Both of them have a plethora of spectacular plays on film. If you go to the YouTube.com and type in each of these two names, you will see plenty of highlight material. Just be careful not exaggerate LeFevour's speed. The clock says he isn't much faster than Tebow. He just looks faster because he is going against slower MAC defenses.

Claims that LeFevour is more NFL ready are totally unfounded. Like Tebow, LeFevour comes from a spread offense. Like Tebow, he seldom or never lined up under center. Like Tebow, LeFevour was in the Shotgun and Pistol nearly 100% of the time. Like Tebow, he ran with the football quite a bit. They both come out of extremely similar offensive schemes. Other than slightly better mechanics, there is no reason to assert that LeFevour is more NFL ready.

In my research, one fact leapt off the HTML at me and bit me right on the nose. Folks, I am going to give you the golden nugget straight up: Against NFL calibur talent in the SEC, Tim Tebow's career pass efficiency rating was no less than 176. Against much weaker talent in the MAC, LeFevour pitched 143.7.

When you add Tebow's awesome intangibles, I think the picture becomes extremely clear: Tebow remains the better candidate.

I want the critics to stand up and explain to me how a kid with lousy mechanics managed to tally a QB efficiency rating of 176 against a bunch of Sunday talent in the SEC? If his mechanics haven't killed him yet, you need to explain to me why they will now.

One other factor for your consideration: Like many others, I believe Southpaws enjoy an advantage in the NFL. Because the overwhelming majority of QBs at every level are right handers, defenders grow accustomed to playing against righties. I am talking about deeply ingrained habitual tendencies that we defenders aren't even aware of. Because southpaws do everything in a mirror flip way, defenders always seem to experience a little lag in dealing with these QBs. This is why even modestly tallented Southpaws like Ken Stabler and Boomer Esiason enjoyed great success. This is why an extremely talented southpaw like Steve Young ranks near the very tip top of the heap.

Dave's Law says that a Southpaw QB causes 12 miliseconds of lag or delay in a defense's reaction time due to backward-read problems. That 12 miliseconds can be absolutely decisive in key situations. It can make the difference between 18 inches of daylight and 4 feet of daylight.

If LeFevour is selected by the Rams, I will be able to accept that. He looks better to me than Clausen. However, I remain on the Tim Tebow bandwaggon.