When future history is written, the BEST QBs from the 2010 class will have been drafted in the 2nd round

In the year 1923, the oregano crop failed in the southern United States. This was due to a mold blight that killed young herbs that season. This created quite a commotion in the Italian sections of New York City. Oregano is one of the most import herbs in Italian cooking. It is said that the price of Oregano first tripped and the quadrupled. Even inferior quality stuff was selling for outrageous prices. This price condition only improved when better, but not fresher, supplies were acquired from Mexico and Europe.

The story I just told you is 100% pure myth. It might have happened. It probably didn't. I decided to invent a story to illustrate the importance of the concept of scarcity in affecting the price of anything. This story does illustrate the power of scarcity to make even the price of poor products rise dramatically.

This happened a couple of years ago in the NFL when two kids name JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were drafted in the first round. Russell was drafted at the head of the class. Now his name is a byword for bust. Both the Browns and the Raiders finished even lower than the Rams in passing yardage. The Rams are worst team in football, and the team that scored the least amount of points in the league. The Rams couldn't pass a lick last season. It is hard to go lower than we did. Yet both JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were worse than any of our Quarterbacks. That looks pretty damn bad on the spot sheet. That fact jumps out of the HTML and bites you on the nose... painfully.

This year, we have a similar situation in play. I believe Sam Bradford, the kid at the head of the class, is vastly better than Russell. He should be successful, but he should not be the high pick that he will be. He will need a very good to AllPro line to stay healthy. Clausen, on the other hand... his fortunes might be worse than Quinn's are. That is what I think. Sorry Notre Dame fans. I think Quinn was and is a better QB prospect than Clausen.

Would it were that Sanchez and Stafford had come out on schedule, in 2010, both Bradford and Clausen would be pushed back considerably in this years draft. Bradford will be a lower first rounder. Clausen would be pushed back deep in the 2nd.

This is similar to what many said when Quinn and Russell were drafted. If those two had been a part of the previous (2006) draft class, they would have been 2nd or 3rd round selections. Scarcity forced the price of these poor kids up. The results were bad. They wound up with poor teams that they were expected to rescue. They were in deep shit, and they drowned.

I firmly believe that when history is written, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds of 2010 will produce the top pros. There are a number of good kids who are misunderstood, miscast and misrepresented who will pan out like gold. Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, LeFevour and Snead could all be in the winner's circle. I am pretty certain that Tebow and McCoy will be there.

The rule is simple: Don't take a QB in the first round this year. Get one at the top of the 2nd. Get Tim Tebow.