The Patriots? Bah… drivel!

The 7 time defending ESPN champs

So, unless you have buried under a rock, you know that ESPN has crowned the New England Patriots the Super Bowl XV champion… before the season is over… and before the playoffs begin. ESPN has crowned the Patriots champion in each and every one of the past 7 consecutive seasons. This includes 2008 when the Patriots failed to qualify for the playoffs. The Patriots are now the 7 time defending ESPN champs.

OH BUT THEY WERE RIGHT IN 2004, 2005, and 2007, and they were undefeated in 2007! Undefeated in 2007, aye? Tell that to the Giants who have big fat diamond rings on their fingers.

I’ll never forget the time last season (2009) when Chris Berman referred to the Patriots as the de facto champs. Q.E.D. quo est demonstratum. For those who complain that there is no east-coast bias at ESPN, you need some of the reality potion the New York Yankees are brewing a little south of your position. Like the Patriots, the Yankees are very close to Bristol. Grab some potion after work.

ESPN has a real bad tendency to get stuck in a groove. This is because the main man, Chris Berman, is a May 10, 1955 Taurus dude. Though he is my Earth brother, and I love the guy, I have to warn you that a Taurus like Berman is the most suborn and fixated character in the zodiac. The rest of the organization has modeled itself around his example. I’ll never forget the time Chris Berman picked the 49ers and Bills as his preseason favorites for the Super Bowl NINE years in a row! It took him almost a decade to give up on that one. I have heard rumors stating that he picked the Raiders v Cowboys nine time in a row back in 1970s. That didn’t happen either.

They say the only dude a Taurus will listen to is a Virgo. If so, I hope I can get this message across clearly, and I hope it will get some consideration. ESPN has been wrong about the Patriots 5 of the last 5 seasons. They have misidentified Patriot weaknesses as strengths in each of the past 5 consecutive years. This has lead to quite considerable error. Who can evaluate that track record of error and not see some form of bias back behind it all?

I’m not buying the Patriots

By now, you should realize that I’m not buying the Patriot theory. Why not? I’ve got some good reasons. Here they are:

1. This team is not the dynasty Patriot team. The one and only hold-over from the glory days is Tom Brady. That is not enough. This is practically an all-new edition, and quite unproven.

2. They just aren’t that talented. You will note that this team doesn’t have many Pro-Bowlers; just three Patriots were elected. Once again, coach Bellichick is doing a lot with a little. This isn’t as good a thing as some would have you believe.

3. Last year, the Ravens not only beat the Patriots in the playoffs, they beat the hell out of them. Until these Patriots prove they can beat these Ravens in a significant game, I favor the Ravens in the AFC.

4. The Patriots are benefiting from unexpectedly weak competition. The Dolphins unexpectedly collapsed in 2010. The Jets have been much weaker than expected in 2010. The Bills… let’s just say those games constitute two free victories for the Patriots. Tough games on the schedule, such as the Packers, turned out to be dramatically easier due to key injuries, such as the Packers’ loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriot win total is a little bloated this year, and deceptive.

5. Andrew Siciliano describes the Patriots as “a 10-6 football team with few playmakers, a suspect defense, who are vulnerable on the road.” I am sure he was referencing the spanking the Patriots took from the Browns. I don’t see much wrong with his statement. Though their record is better than 10-6, it might easily be 10-6 under slightly different circumstances. We all know how they creep down the field. You witnessed the way in which Matt Flynn, the backup QB in Green Bay, put more than 30 points on the board against the Patriot defense. The Patriots won’t have to go on the road in this tournament, but home field advantage didn’t help them much last season.

6. The AFC is the second best conference in the league. The dirty little secret we’re all keeping in the closet is that the NFC is now the better conference. The AFC just ain’t what it’s cracked up to be. The NFC won the lion’s share of key matchups between contending playoff teams in 2010. The NFC also contains two of the past three Super Bowl winners. Note that the AFC Steelers nearly lost to the Cardinals in a dandy sandwiched between two NFC victories; one at the expense of the “undefeated” Patriots. My bet will probably be on the NFC champion when SB45 comes around.

7. Our best reasons for believing in the Patriots are the things we’ve heard in the echo chamber, and the echo chamber is dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN. I wonder what the prevailing national opinion of these Patriots would be if we weren’t living in an echo chamber dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN?

I’m making a non-fashionable choice

I’m taking the Ravens in the AFC. If you want to crown their ass (the Patriots) then crown them, but the Patriots are who I think they are, and this is why their opponents should take the damn field.

The 2011 Draft and the Cam Newton Mess

Prolog about the 2011 draft

Suddenly in the past two weeks, everybody is beginning to talk about the 2011 draft. I guess this correlates with the first series of mathematical eliminations from the playoff picture. Once your 2010 season is (virtually) over, and you’re just playing out the string, there is nothing to look forward to but the draft. In a sense, it is reasonable to start talking about the draft.

Unfortunately, the things being said about the 2011 draft are mostly poppycock. As usual, there is far too much talk about the QB position. I hope to install a circuit breaker on some of this sanguine talk. Much like the New York Yankees, I hope I can get you to sip the reality potion.

And the #1 prospect of 2011 is: a very shitty draft indeed!

That’s right! You heard it from me first. The top prospect in 2011 is a shitty draft. Why? Let me tell you about it.

1. The 2010 draft was an ultra bonsai affair, quite probably the best draft since 1983. 2010 was rich because it looted the 2011 Draft. Loads of quality underclassmen declared themselves eligible for the 2010 draft.

2. The record numbers of underclassmen who declared themselves eligible in 2010 did so explicitly because they feared a rookie salary cap in 2011.

3. Unless the 2011 draft can loot the 2012 draft, it is going to be a very poor crop indeed. Will we see another strong crop of under classmen entering the NFL draft this year? Fuck no.

4. On the first horn of the dilemma is the fact that the NFL moves closer and closer to a lock-out every day. The owners have already spelled out a detailed plan for a partial shut-down of the league. They will go into hibernation mode to conserve money. In response, the players have voted to conditionally decertify the Union if a lockout occurs. This is legal maneuver that permits litigation. In response, the league published a plan to refund season ticket holders if there is a lockout. In response, the Union informed its players that they should save and not spend their last two paychecks of the year to get them through 2011. We are much further down the road to disaster than you think.

5. On the second horn of the dilemma is the fact that the Union is fine with the idea of a rookie salary cap. Vets don’t like it when rookies get $78m contracts, with $50 million guaranteed. Whether you know it or not, the rookie salary cap is not a controversial issue in this negotiation. All inside sources say the players favor a rookie cap. If they can work out the other issues, like an 18 game schedule, the rookie cap will be an automatic part of the agreement.

If I am a junior or a sophomore eligible for this year’s draft, I am officially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If I enter the draft, I may get locked out, or I may get capped. In either case, I am not happy with the situation. I may lose my senior year of football only to be locked out and make no (zip, zero, zilch, nada) money. I may return to work for what my immediate predecessors would consider shitty contract.

Sorry folks, that just isn’t much incentive to leave school. Unless I am a senior, I am staying in school. When you look at it from the micro-economic perspective, I see little reason to believe that the 2011 draft will loot the 2012 draft. The motivation to declare for the draft just isn’t there. This is going to be a senior prom affair, with a few underclassmen guests.

Based on all of these points, I think this will be the worst draft since 1987. It just so happens that 1987 was the last strike-afflicted year. That is not a co-inky-dink. There is a causal link here.

The NFL Never, Never, Never learns

There is a Mosaic law, stenciled by the finger of God on stone which states clearly “Thou shalt not take a quarterback in the 1^st round!” That’s right, it’s mortal sin to take a QB in the 1^st round of the draft. Why do I say this?

According to the actuarial tables, a high 1^st round pick should have a better than 50% chance of making it in the NFL. More than 70% of all Senior QBs drafted in the 1^st round, fail to become franchise QBs in the NFL. Yes, it’s true ladies and germs. Test me and see if I am wrong. That is worse than the average results for non-quarterback 3^rd round picks. About 66% of 3^rd round picks go bust in this league.

When you draft a QB in the 1^st around you automatically down-grade your first round pick to a lower value than a third round pick. That is a statistical fact, not a theory. It is a posteriori conclusion, it is not a priori notion. It is a conclusion from research, not a theoretical explanation of data.

If you know anything at all about probability and outcome in mathematics, or risk assessment in economics, you know that using a 1^st rounder on a quarterback is the same value as trading a 1^st round pick for a 3^rd round pick. That is a very stupid thing to do.

Your Rams just struck gold in the 1^st round, right?

The automatic response is to hit me with the et tu fallacy, and remind me that the Rams just took Sam Bradford and did fine. You might remember that I had plenty of objections to that move. Devaney turned out to be right. I turned out to be wrong. We both got lucky. In any case, I would not recommend this ‘strategy’ to anyone.

The fact remains that a 1^st round QB is a very bad economic and logistical risk in the draft.

At this point it looks like we got away with murder… in broad daylight… captured on video tape. I don’t know how we managed to do that, and my mind still boggles over this clean get-away. It was the triumph of emotion over reason. It was the triumph of a gutsy call over scientific football.

Still, I would never recommend attempting murder to anyone. Hang on a sec there Dave, did you just equivocate drafting a QB in the first round with attempting to get away with murder? Yep, that’s exactly and precisely it. Drafting a QB in the first round is like trying to get away with murder.

And now for the Andrew Luck and Cam Newton bullshit

Let me begin with a recap: If I am an underclassman, I’m staying in school. I am not entering the draft. Understand that 90% of all non-senior QBs go bust in the draft. Understand that there is a lockout on the horizon. Understand that if you take your 90% risk, and stare-down the lockout, you may win a shitty contract as your reward for bravery. Not much incentive there, eh boys? Play the percentages and stay in school.

Looking at it from the perspective of an NFL GM, I think you are absolutely crazy if you take either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. Luck is a redshirt sophomore. He’s too young. Throw that one back. Let him grow some more. Forget about him. I am not taking a 10% chance and a 90% risk on him.

Cam is effectively a redshirt junior, and he’s carrying plenty of baggage. Here we have the kid who’s destined to be the most controversial figure in football during both 2010 and 2011. I’ll give you my two cents about Cam, which ain’t worth a nickel.

Mel Kiper is hyped about Cam Newton. In that one fact alone, you have all the information you will ever need to stay away from the kid. Mel is the practically perfect reverse barometer. Remember, this was the fool who advocated JaMarcus Russell like there was no tomorrow. Mel was the guy who stated that JaMarcus would be a Top 5 NFL Quarterback within 3-5 years. Nope, he’s out of the league. In his wildest statements ever, Mel said JaMarcus had true ”John Elway ability.”

If a man could be burned at the stake for being wrong about the draft, certainly Mel would be charcoal by now.

Colin Cowherd is also a Cam Newton advocate. Understand that Cowherd offers you nothing on the draft except regurgitated Mel Kiper takes. When you get a draft opinion from Cowherd, you are getting a second hand, predigested Kiper take. As an added bonus, Cowherd freely admits that he liked Ryan Leaf, the guy most frequently cited as the biggest NFL draft bust in history.

Just one more special bonus: Both Kiper and Cowherd were stoked up about Jimmy Clausen last year. Insiders say that the Carolina Panthers are interested in acquiring both John Harbaugh and Andrew Luck in a package deal. If so, what does that tell you about Clausen? What does this tell you about the Panthers’ organization? Nothing good in any case. It’s a train wreck disaster going down in Charlotte. Clausen is a part of that train wreck. So are Kiper and Cowherd.

Why I am not taking Cam Newton

History teaches us that kids with loose morals turn into tragedies once they get a couple of million bucks in their pockets. This has absolutely nothing to do with on-the-field performance. This has everything to do with the police blotter.

If you interviewed all 32 NFL GMs, I guarantee you that their #1 fear of a prospect lies in how he will respond to sudden wealth. They worry about whether their chosen kid has the moral fiber to withstand sudden, massive, unbelievable prosperity. GMs worry about whether sudden wealth will turn the chosen one into a drug-fueled party monster. There are all kinds of things that walk hand-in-hand and side-by-side with being one of those rich NFL Party Monsters. This is the #1 risk for just about any high-round pick in the NFL Draft.

In response to this kind of attack, defenders of Cam Newton frequently cite the fact that Cam had both parents in the home and his daddy (Cecil) is a preacher. Please… it is to laugh.

We all know that there are two types of preachers in this world: sent by God and not of God. You got some who are in it for humanitarian reasons, and you have some who are in it for the money. You have some who are other-worldly, and you have some who are very worldly indeed.

What would you think of a preacher who goes to a college or university and makes a point-blank illegal Payola demand on behalf of his son? By all accounts, Cecil Newton is a Deliverance preacher. Do you know what that means? He rebukes Satan and casts out devils for contributions… errr… the tithe. You do know that this is something Benny Hinn and Ken Copeland specialize in? They cast out Satan in deliverance services all the time. Somehow Satan always gets back inside in time for the next show. These two Deliverance preachers are also big advocates of Payola.

No folks, I am staying away from Cam Newton. I love athletic running QBs, and I am staying away from Cam. Stolen laptops? Cheating on tests? On the verge of getting kicked out of Florida? Bumping down to the CC level? Asking for payola on his return? Just one year of productivity on the major college level? This doesn’t sound like the sort of moral fiber that withstands massive wind-fall profits.

Some have compared Cam Newton to JaMarcus Russell. Dan Fouts did this recently on the Dan Patrick show. Is that supposed to inspire confidence in anyone?

Others have compared Cam to Vince Young. I think that is more apt, but do understand that Vince Young’s career is on the bubble right now. He lacks mental toughness, the ability to deal with adversity, and work through issues with his coach. To be precise, he can’t take it when people boo him. Again, this isn’t good confidence material.

Finally, many have compared Cam to Tim Tebow for a lot of reasons. Understand this: TD Tim had four squeaky clean years of high productivity at Florida before graduating as a senior. He was beloved by all, and criticized by no one. In terms of actual production, Cam is a one-year wonder more comparable to Ryan Leaf than Tim Tebow.

If I am in the market for a quarterback, and boy I’m sure glad we aren’t, I am looking in another direction.

A little retrospective

How good does the Bradford pick look today? Not only are our Rams set with a solid franchise QB, but we are set to enjoy a free pass in 2011. How good is that? I think it is just fucking fantastic that no one expects us to participate in the QB debate this year. We can now enjoy our right to completely ignore the entire Andrew Luck & Cam Newton controversy. Everybody will understand completely.

If we had avoided a QB entirely in 2010, something I knew we would not do, there would be tremendous political pressure on the Rams to select either Andrew Luck or Cam Newton (should they be available). Certainly we would not be 6-6 and in the NFC West hunt this year. We would have another high pick more pressure than ever to select a QB.

Now we don’t have the slightest worry in the world about that. All is well. Devaney’s call is looking better and better every day.

Some Random Thoughts on Sports this Monday Night

Both the Cowboy and Vikings seasons officially ended today

Towards the end of the off-season, most speculators believed that the Cowboys and the Vikings would be the two NFC Championship contestants come January. I gave a light and tentative endorsement to the Cowboy theory. I totally denied the Viking theory. It turns out that both teams are officially dead as of week 7 of the 2010 season.

Today, the MRIs revealed that Brett Favre has 2 fractures in his ankle and a chunk of bone & tendon that has ripped out of position. Get this, they have not officially ruled him out for Sunday’s game! BBAAAAHHHHAAA HHAAAAAAHAAHHAHAHA! That’s a funny joke. I get it.

Bullshit! Bull-fucking-shit! Brett’s career is now officially over. Call it quits. Just shut it down. Pack it in and call it a career. It is now over. He’s isn’t just officially out for this Sunday. He’s out for the rest of his life. The only thing that prevents us from calling a spade of a spade is pure media politics. In other words, denials and protestations to the contrary are absolute and complete bullshit.

Of course, this means Viks can pack it in and call it quits for the rest of 2010. They are officially no longer contenders, not that they were 27 hours ago either. Sure, they may go on to win 4-6 of their remaining games, but that will mean nothing in the playoff picture.

Then, as if things weren’t going badly enough for the Cowboys, catastrophe struck on ESPN Monday Night Football when Michael Boley sprinted through a gaping hole in the Cowboy offensive line and drove a chicken-winged Tony Romo into the artificial turf… hard. Tony suffered a broken clavicle bone in his left shoulder. He is expected to miss 8-10 games.

I categorically agree with owner Jerry Jones: There is no replacement for Tony Romo. The Cowboys may win 4 or 5 games down the stretch with Jon Kitna, but I seriously doubt it. Even if they do, it will mean poodly-squat in the playoff picture. The Cowboys are now officially done.

Hell widens its mouth for the Chargers

I am about two tens of a nanometer away from declaring the Chargers dead also. The only thing that prevents me from doing so is the presumed weakness of the AFC West. I think this presumption is extremely faulty. I am one tenth of a nanometer away from accepting the proposition that the Chiefs are the class of the West. I seriously doubt that the Chargers are going to have either a winning or a break-even record in 2010.

Early this afternoon, I heard Hacksaw Lee Hamilton raising hell over the Charger situation. He is not alone in raising hell, by any means, and his pain is genuine. He has been a Charger man for decades now. He drew a bulls-eye on the situation precisely and then said something very curious indeed. Hacksaw declared that he was thinking the unthinkable: The Chargers might not be a playoff team in 2010.

I laughed like hell at that line. Everything he had declared prior to that point pretty well proved that the Chargers were nothing resembling a playoff contender. Why soft-pedal the mandatory conclusion? Politics. It would be tough for such a prominent sports reporter in the San Diego area to hammer his favorite franchise so clearly on the air. It could cost him political capital. Better to sacrifice some honesty points, and appear loyal.

At this very moment, I am hearing Moochie spewing some horseshit about how the Chargers are still good enough to win the AFC West. No. You’re all wet there, coach. This has nothing to do with talent or the lack there of.

This has everything to do with labor strife. Hacksaw Lee Hamilton is correct, the Chargers have quit on A.J. Smith. Labor strife has reached a point now where the Charger players are playing selfishly to enlarge their stats and make a run at free agency with some other team. They are not playing to win.

Hell widens its mouth for the 49ers

I haven’t got the slightest idea of what is wrong with 49ers. I am inclined to blame Alex Smith, but that does not explain their inability to terminate last-minute game winning drives. They were supposed to have an elite defense. They have nothing of the kind. We have to look to Singletary for the reason why. Yes, he is one of the most respected dudes around, but something is seriously wrong with that defense.

I think the 49ers are also officially dead. If they make it to 8-8, it will be a miracle.

Giants vs Falcons in the NFC Championship?

I still believe the Saints and the Packers can factor in the NFC. However, it is getting clearer and clearer that the two most powerful football teams in the NFC are the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons. They are really starting to look good. They seem to be improving in every area, particularly in their ability to fight back into contention when they are down in the count.

I am really fucking sick of the East-Coast Bias

There is a clear law in sports: Your ranking is inversely proportional to your proximity to Bristol Connecticut. The closer you are to Bristol, the higher your ranking. The greater your distance, the lower your ranking.

As a UCLA graduate, I am no fan of Oregon, however, I cannot understand how they were cheated of the #1 ranking this week. How the hell did Auburn get it? How did they jump over Boise and Oregon? Ooooops! I forgot! Auburn is closer to Bristol than Eugene Oregon! That’s how they scored it. It is a clear-cut case of 100% pure unadulterated, unalloyed East-Coast Bias!

Let’s be clear: ESPN runs college football, both on their networks and ABC. Their impact on their BCS rankings is quantum. They are responsible for this travesty.

I love the World Series this year

Folks, I am not much of a fan of Baseball. I am no fan of the Rangers. I am no fan of the Giants. I am a life-long Dodger fan. With that said, I am going to watch every game of the series this year, and I am going to enjoy the fucking hell out of it.

Do you want to know why? ESPN has 982,288 tons of egg all over their collective face. I absolutely love the fact that the East Coast is shut-out of the World Series. ESPN analysts were utterly sure the Giants were (are) a team put together out of bubble-gum and duck-tape. They were also sure that the Rangers were no match for the mighty Yankees.

Why were they sure of this? Because Philly and NY are very close to Bristol Connecticut, that’s why. Their East Coast Bias was never stronger than in the run up to the World Series this year. They were so utterly sure that the Yanks would rematch with the Phillies this year it was pathetic. It made you wonder why they were even going to play the games.

I am so damn delighted that the Giants shoved a red-hot poker up ESPN’s arse that I am going to declare a temporary ban on my hatred for them. I am actually going to pull, gently, for the Giants. Again, ESPN’s bias is showing. They believe the Rangers will win the Series because Dallas is closer to Bristol than San Francisco.

Be assured, their logic is no better than that.

Oh Christ... not another Favre feeding frenzy

Oh Christ... not another Favre feeding frenzy

This time folks, the joke is on you. You're making fools out of yourselves, and don't blame it on us. I'm speaking of ESPN and the NFL Network. Right now a maximum intensity feeding frenzy is in progress because... [drum roll] Brett Favre borded a plane headed for Minnesota. No shit, eh? Did you expect him to drive? Why is that news?

The obvious certainty that he would take a plane rather that drive was completely lost in the hystrical panic the news caused. Special agents are covering the scene of the depature and the scene of the arrival 24/7. I'm talking about wall-to-wall coverage. This is right up there with Elvis has left the building. It's almost as big a Buckwheat getting shot.

This frenzy resembles both the Huricain Katrina and the death of Pope John Paul Frenzies. It is not quite as big as the death of Michael Jackson, but it is close. If this story were a favor of ice cream, it would be named Banna Christ Ape Shit. Let's face the facts folks. It is the 2nd comming of Jesus Favre, or Brett Christ.

CBS News posted a mock story that Brett Favre's plane crashed and their were no survivors. The other forum members posted their appaulse [CLAP! CLAP! CLAP!]

In all seriousness folks, is he the greatest QB in history? Nope. Is he the greatest QB in the league? Nope. Is he the #1 guy in the Fantasy pool? Nope. Is he the #1 QB in the NFC? Nope. Is he over 40 and surgically repaired? Yep! Did he throw the INT that terminated the Vikings in the NFC Championship game? Yep. Is Minnesota the most populace state in the nation? Are the Vikings the defending world champs? Nope! Are the Vikings the best team in football? Nope! Is this the richest state in the union? Nope. Is the state of Minnesota deeply steeped in footbal tradition? Nope.

Why then are are going absolutely frickin' bonko?

Let's face the facts folks, the big media covers the stories they want to cover, just the same way I do on my little blog. For some obtuse and eskew reason, this story interests them more than others do. I don't understand why. However, the coverage of this story is massively disproportional to the significance of this story.

OH! So now McNabb is going Cleveland, aye!

There are three great lies in American life:

1. The check is in the mail
2. Donovan McNabb is about to be traded
3. I promise not to cum in your mouth

You guys are so full of shit your eyes are brown. You guys have absolutely no street cred left. I am talking about 0.0000 street cred. You have cried wolf too many times, and now nobody believes you. [A few hundred too many if you ask me.] You have proven that there are lies, damn lies, and then there are McNabb rumors.

You are just jerking the chains of Philly fans with fabricated lies. When McNabb starts game 1, week 1, 2010 FOR THE EAGLES I vow to give you so much hell you will wish you had never invented any of these false reports. I am not going to let you live this down. I am going to drop it on your heads like a trip hammer every time you turn around.

Remember: I am a Ram fan. I really don't give a damn about Philly or McNabb. The problem is that I smell a rat. You guys are just manipulating and lying to get Philly fans to tune in. I think that is a total violation of journalistic ethics... if you have any.

The 5 and 7 step drop back are so over-rated

Egads, I never thought I would live to see the day. What dark days these are. There is a crisis in NFL Scoutting. It has has ever been poor, but never so poor as this.

A draft year is upon us where the NFL is prepared to draft a pure milk dud--high in the first--just because he does the 5 and 7 step drop back. "Yes, but nobody else does!" (?) Let's put the emphasis on the wrong factoid, shall we? Yes, lets!

Dread has come upon us all. The scouts--who are enormously fallible when evaluating QB talent--are downgrading a 100% pure stud QB because he has a long delivery. Let's put the emphasis on the wrong factoid, shall we? Yes, lets!

I've got some fucking news for you scouts, and I am going to make it short and sweet: Every last QB in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton Ohio had bad habits and mechanical flaws in his game plan. Not a single one of them was mechanically perfect. Every last one of them (still living) would confess that in a heart beat.

Mel Kiper Jr. would shit all over the incredible Slingin' Sammy Baugh if Baugh if he were a kid coming out this year. He had one of the funkyist throwing motions I've ever seen. Baugh is arguably the greatest football player ever to take the field. Unitas had a very high arch throw, and he dropped his arm down low also. He is father of the QB position. Brett Favre has all kinds of bad habits, and he may well be the most celebrated QB in the game right now. [With all due respect to Peyton Manning.] Favre has played for 19 years with bad habits and mechanical flaws, and he is going to the Hall of Fame.

Do you know what you can do with all of the mechanical flaw talk? Do you know where you can put it? Do you realize how little weight and merit your jargon about mechanical flaws really carries in true game of NFL Football?

I have some other news for you: The ability to lead men in battle, the drive to compete and win, that is 90% of greatness. The other 10% is pure athleticism. Tim Tebow has it in spades. If Bill Devaney and Steve Spagnuolo are serious about there verbal positions on character issues, Tebow has to be the automatic choice at #33, top of the 2nd round. Do not pass go. Do not entertain trade offers. Do not take the fully allotted time. Just send the card up to the commish.

I want Mel Kiper Jr.'s video track record on YouTube.com

Memo to ESPN:

In the spirit of full disclosure, transparency and accountability, I would like you to dig up the video tapes of Mel Kiper Jr.'s reviews and ratings on the following Quarterback candidates for the NFL draft:

1. David Kilingler Bengals 1992
2. Tommy Maddox Broncos 1992
3. Dave Brown Giants 1992
4. Rick Mirer Seahawks 1993
5. Heath Shuler Redskins 1994
6. Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1997
7. Ryan Leaf Chargers 1998
8. Tim Couch Browns 1999
9. Akili Smith Bengals 1999
10. Cade McNown Bears 1999
11. David Carr Texans 2002
12. Joey Harrington Lions 2002
13. Patrick Ramsey Redskins 2002
14. Byron Leftwich Jaguars 2003
15. Kyle Boller Ravens 2003
16. Rex Grossman Bears 2003
17. J.P. Losman Bills 2004
18. Alex Smith 49ers 2005
19. Jason Campbell Redskins 2005
20. JaMarcus Russell Raiders 2007
21. Brady Quinn Browns 2007

I would have expected someone to have posted these videos on the YouTube.com already, but such is not the case. I looked hard, but could find no trace of these videos. Has the record been expunged? Did someone post a few of these embaressing videos? Did you order YouTube.com to remove these videos for copyright violations?

If Mel Kiper Jr. is as good as you pretend he is, then you have nothing to hide. You can post these historical videos proudly as a sign of confidence in Kiper's ability to detect and warn the NFL of dud quarterbacks. He will provide us with the correct diagnostic. On the other hand, if Mel Kiper Jr. is what I say he is--the Pastor Benny Hinn of the NFL Draft--he will probably say some things in those videos that would cause NFL fans to howl with laughter in retrospect.

I seem to recall glowing praise for some QBs like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch and David Carr. Hearing the words of Kiper once again on names such as those listed above might prove extremely damaging to Mel Kiper Jr.'s status as the doyen of draft gurus.

Reliving the words of Kiper Jr. will be highly instructional in this fine year of 2010 when your cohort are driving the stock of a fellow like Jimmy Clausen way up the board. Reliving the words of Kiper regarding these legendary busts in NFL Draft history would provide us with a grain of salt to temper current words of praise for future busts.

Alex Marvez said what about our offensive line...?

So I was just listening to Myers and Hartman on the Launching Pad, and they had (as per usual) a very special guest with them. This time it was Alex Marvez. Marvez was there to discuss the combine. He is in Indianapolis right now.

Hartman made the great point that Sam Bradford is damaged goods. Surely, the Rams could never pass on Ndamukong Suh to selected a damaged QB like Bradford? Marvez is obviously backing Schefter and Clayton, as he called out the Rams administrators for passing on QBs two years in a row when Bulger is clearly not the solution. Hartman replied (correctly) that the Rams could never protect a rookie QB with the rubbish offensive line they (we) have.

This is where it got stunning: Marvez declared that he totally disagreed with that statement about the Rams' offensive line. He felt that was a greatly improved group last year, and they would be further improved this season with 1 more year of experience for Jason Smith. He declared with vehemence that the Rams could not continue to pass on young quarterbacks.

Oh... Jesus... where do I begin to deconstruct the lies!

I don't blame Marvez for following the Rams lightly, and not keeping track of current events. Many do not. They do not consider us relevant in the NFL anymore. They have not for several years now.

There was a point last season where what Marvez said seemed to be true. It was fugacious, to borrow a word from that sesquipedalian Steve Young. In the five offensive line positions, the Rams had 5 primary starters last season:

• Left Tackle Alex Barrow -- A very serious fuck up. One of the most penalized OL men in the league over the past 5 years. Personally responsible for about 30-40% of Marc Bulger's injuries over the past several years. Crap-ass pass protector.
• Left Guard Jacob Bell -- an itty bitty teeny weenie guard with a serious tear in his hamstring now. Lost for the season. Never had much drive in his legs. He will have less after the hamstring tear. He's not a bad guy, but he isn't a great guard.
• Center Jason Brown -- now this is a badass. If we had more like him we'd be just fine.
• Right Guard Ritchie Icognito -- Worst case of 'Roid rage in NFL history. Cut by the team for conduct detrimental after massive numbers of unsportsman like conduct calls. He had one hell of a straight right punch, and he knew how to taunt the officials before game winning field goals.
• Right Tackle Jason Smith -- Made a few rookie mistakes but looks fundamentally solid. This is another badass in progress. If we had more like him we'd be just fine.

So where do we stand going into 2010?

• Incognito is gone.
• I believe Barrow will not be back. If we bring back we will regret it. He sucks. I would trade him for a postage stamp if anybody in league would give me one.
• Jacob Bell may be back, but he is not a solid solution at Left Guard.
• Jason Brown is a badass
• Jason Smith is a badass

Ergo we have 2 out 5 positions solidly filled. Ghee... let me think... Can we protect a rookie QB like Sam Bradford with just 40% of an offensive line? No, fuck no.

Marvez! Pull your head out of your ass! Check on current events before making stupid declarations! You fucked up.

If we draft Sam Bradford, it will end in tears

Broken dreams and flying machines laying in pieces on the ground.

Adam Schefter has guaranteed that the Rams will select Sam Bradford #1 overall in the NFL draft in April. I guess he wants to burn his street cred, which is pretty good. Unless we all forget about this false prophecy he is likely to wind up with a great deal of egg on his face. Devaney politely bitch slapped Schefter for cause.

I am fairly certain that Schefter and ESPN are just talking to brew talk. It is the off season. We still have almost two months to go before the draft. Schefter and his ilk are expected to be active this week because of the combine, but strict combine reports don't market well. Spectacular rumors about the first pick do sell well, even in the off season. This means that it is the best week of the year for absolute bullshit rumors.

Just on the off chance that Devaney and Spagnuolo are thinking about doing something stupid, I want to lay a heavy prophecy of doom on all you. *_IF_* we the Rams select Sam Bradford with the #1 pick (or any pick) in the 2010 NFL Draft:

1. Bradford will become the next Jim Plunket; a Heisman trophy QB full of promise, destroyed by physical injury. .
2. Sam will not play long behind our craphouse offensive line.
3. You will see the Marc Bulger pattern re-emerge.
4. It will all end in tears
5. Shahid Khan, or Kroenke, or both will fire Devaney and Spagnuolo in just 2 years time when it becomes clear we went bust on the #1 pick, selecting an injury plagued quarterback.
6. No progress will be made at all.
7. We will ruin the young man's otherwise promising career.
8. At best he will fame-on with some other team after years of disappointment, and be voted the comeback player of the year after he leads somebody else to the Super Bowl.

No, ESPN. Drafting Sam Bradford is the absolute wrong thing to do with the #1 pick. In fact, it is a straight up stupid argument. Every argument ESPN has made in this case is confounded, fallacious, anti-factual, and fabricated out of nothing.

Or let us hope so...

So John Clayton says we're taking Sam Bradford based on financial considerations, aye?

John Clayton just pissed me off a few moments ago. I usually don't blog this early in the morning, but I am going to have to get this load off my chest quickly this morning.

Clayton says financial considerations will supersede tallent evaluations in this 2010 NFL Draft. His argument goes like the following:

1. The top pick in the 2010 draft will likely haul down a contract worth $12 million per year
2. Defensive linemen in the NFL don't make $12 million per year.
3. Applying the franchise tag to a defensive lineman usually costs $7 million
4. Ergo the Rams will have to overspend on Ndamukong Suh by some $5 million
5. Defensive linemen don't make that large of an impact on your winning percentage
6. The Rams can draft Suh and finish with 3 victories next season.
7. Ergo there is not much impact on wins and losses from overspending by $5 million to get Ndamukong Suh.
8. The correct idea is draft Bradford.
9. $12 million can be justified for a QB.
10. A QB will impact the Rams' wins and losses more than a DT.

Ah bouy... so many logical fallacies... so little time... where do I begin? John Clayton's argument is predicated on a very large number of logical fallacies. These will be his undoing. Let us take this bastard's argument one step at a time.

1. We have established that selecting a QB in the first round is a very high risk proposition
2. You have a 66% chance of going bust when you select a QB in the first round
3. Selecting a QB at the top of round 1 is an even lower percentage situation.
4. The only time it ever really worked out was Troy Aikman; with respect also given to Peyton Manning.
5. We have established that this is a poor quarterback year.
6. We have established that the Rams have a dogshit offensive line. The Rams cannot protect him, period.
7. We have established that the Rams have a poor crop of Wide Receivers. Bradford will have no one to throw too.
8. We have established that Sam Bradford is a gracile and fragile QB. He is coming off of shoulder surgery on his passing arm. He does not take a hit well

Ergo sum, John Clayton's argument is absolute bullshit.

1. The Rams cannot play Sam Bradford 2010
2. If they do, the Rams' OL will get him killed
3. Bradford will become a legendary bust in NFL history, rather than what he should become: A franchise QB.
4. We will not get $12 million worth of impact out of drafting Sam Bradford
5. He will not have that big of an impact on our winning percentage.
6. We should not intentionally ruin Sam Bradford's career with malice of forethought.
7. We should not intentionally waste our absolute #1 pick, foreseeing that it cannot workout.
8. Suh is the correct pick
9. Negotiate a cheaper deal with Suh.

It is absolutely shocking to me that John Clayton is so foolish to presume that you simply take a QB and it works out. We all know that this is a very high risk proposition. Is $12 m for a higher risk a better proposition that $12 m for a much lower risk?

Frankly, I am really getting sick and tired and pissed off because all of these so-called experts continue to try to misdirect my Rams towards a high-draft QB in a bad QB year. This is absolute stupidity of the highest order. I understand that the IQ of a lot of these experts is around 70-80 and they scored 6-9 points on their Wonderlic tests. Still, you aught to know better. Shame on you you fucktards.

Incidentally, you can read his bullshit here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=4946251

The terrible falibility of NFL scouts, Part II

I am on a crusade to impeach the credibility of guys like Mel Kiper Jr. I am on this quest, because this mission is long overdue. Mel Kiper Jr is to the NFL Draft what Benny Hinn is to Christianity: He is the fake healer. If you have a disease, one of the worst things you can do is go to Hinn for a faith healing. If you are rebuilding a football team, one of the worst things you can do is listen to Kiper's advice on the draft.

I don't know how two guys can get it so wrong so many times and still maintain some level of religious faith & street cred among the people. Yet the two of them have made a lot more money than I functioning in a craft they ain't got no gift for. This may be Captain Ahab's quest, but I am going for it any way. I am sick and tired of hearing bullshit from Kiper--especially about QBs--as if it were the authoritative word of God.

I have completed the second phase of my research project into Quarterbacks in the NFL draft. I have studied the drafted and the undrafted. I have compiled a list of all Pro-Bowl elected QBs not drafted in the 1st round. Let me show you this list:

Scoutting Failures
	Name	Year	Round	Pick	Comment
1	Joe Montana	1979	3	82	Bottom of the third
2	Neil Lomax	1981	2	33	Pro Bowl
3	Wade Wilson	1981	8	210	Pro Bowl
4	Boomer Esiason	1984	2	38	MVP Pro Bowl QB
5	Jeff Hostetler	1984	3	59	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
6	Jay Schroeder	1984	3	83	Pro Bowl
7	Randall Cunningham	1985	2	37	Pro Bowl
8	Steve Bono	1985	6	142	Pro Bowl
9	Doug Flutie	1985	11	285	Pro Bowl
10	Mark Rypien	1986	6	146	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
11	Rich Gannon	1987	4	98	MVP Pro Bowl
12	Steve Beuerlein	1987	4	110	Pro Bowl
13	Don Majkowski	1987	10	255	Pro Bowl
14	Chris Chandler	1988	3	76	Pro Bowl
15	Neil O'Donnell	1990	3	71	Pro Bowl
16	Brett Favre	1991	2	33	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
17	Jeff Blake	1992	6	166	Pro Bowl
18	Brad Johnson	1992	9	227	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
19	Mark Brunell	1993	5	118	Pro Bowl
20	Elvis Grbac	1993	8	219	Pro Bowl
21	Trent Green	1993	8	222	Pro Bowl
22	Gus Frerotte	1994	7	197	Pro Bowl
23	Kordell Stewart	1995	2	60	Pro Bowl
24	Jake Plummer	1997	2	42	Pro Bowl
25	Brian Griese	1998	3	91	Pro Bowl
26	Matt Hasselbeck	1998	6	187	Pro Bowl
27	Marc Bulger	2000	6	168	Pro Bowl
28	Tom Brady	2000	6	199	MVP, Pro Bowl, Super Bowl
29	Drew Brees	2001	2	32	Pro Bowl + Super Bowl
30	David Garrard	2002	4	108	Pro Bowl
31	Matt Schaub	2004	3	90	Pro Bowl
32	Derek Anderson	2005	6	213	Pro Bowl

The HTML didn't turn out so great, but that doesn't matter. What matters is some of the highly noteworthy names on that list. Each one of those guys was a lot better than several busted 1st round picks taken well ahead of them. I submit to you that each and every time a QB on this list was drafted, we witnessed an instance of scouting failure.

Why?

The answer is simple: Because highly touted 1st round QBs were selected ahead of these men, and many of those guys went bust. When a scout hypes up a 1st rounder who goes bust, and misses completely on high-quality kids later on, a serious evaluation error has taken place. Somebody--a talent scout--made a really bad awful mistake. A turd was considered a gem. A gem was mistaken for a turd, or the gem was missed entirely. A bust QB is never worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him as a bust, you failed. A Pro Bowl QB is worth taking in the 1st round. If you couldn't identify him, as such, you failed.

Anyone involved in industrial production or software design would understand that this outcome is unacceptable. You can't throw out good widgets and select bad ones as good. Doing so will fuck up the process for sure, and so it is with the NFL Draft.

Now the scouts may be wont to absolve themselves from blame. They may declare that the GMs and HCs are not listening to them. Bullshit! Most GMs and HCs draft according to what the scouts tell them. When they make out their draft boards, they do so almost entirely on the basis of scouting data. Scouting data is the premise for the pick almost every time. There are a few very unusual exceptions, but they are rare.

Answer me these questions:

• How did Jack Thompson and Steve Fuller get drafted ahead of Joe Montana?
• How did Rich Campbell and Dave Wilson get drafted ahead of Neil Lomax & Wade Wilson?
• How did Chuck Long get drafted 134 picks higher than Mark Rypien?
• How did Kelly Stouffer get selected 92 slots higher than Rich Gannon?
• How did Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich get selected ahead of Brett Favre?
• How did David Klingler and Tommy Maddox get select 202+ picks higher than Brad Johnson?
• How did Rick Mirer get selected #2 overall and how did Mark Brunell get selected #118 in the 5th round? How did Mirer go ahead of Trent Green (#222 8th round)?
  
• How did Jim Druckenmiller go ahead of Jake Plummer?
• How did Ryan Leaf get drafted #2 overall and Matt Hasselbeck get drafted #187 in the 6th round?
• How did Tom Brady and Marc Bulger get drafted in the 6th round?
• How did Michael Vick go ahead of Drew Brees in 2001?

The answer is exactly the same in each and everyone of these cases: A monumental case of scouting failure occured. Guys just like Mel Kiper Jr, and Mel himself, fucked up. That's what happened.

Last time out, I established that 66 QBs had been drafted over our 28 year study period. Only 22 of those guys were clear-cut franchise QBs, 38 were clear cut busts, and 6 were indeterminate journeymen. Now we have another figure to identify: 32 missed ProBowl QBs.

Is the picture becoming clear to you? Are you begining to see the big picture? Do you grasp the meaning and implications of these figures. The scouts have a very crappy percentage. They are extremely fallible. They fuck up much more often than they get it right. Their judgment is unreliable.

Next time, we are going to talk about the biggest QB scouting errors of them all: Undrafted ProBowl QBs.