What 5 non-playoff teams from 2010 will make the playoffs in 2011

Presuming we have a season in 2011, we can expect most of our statistical averages play out as per usual.

Usually, we laugh like hell at fans who expect the playoff picture next year to look exactly like it did last year. The reason is pretty straightforward. Each year and every year, about 5 teams who did not make the playoffs the year before make it this year. Since this is a zero sum game, the inverse is also true.

Consider 2010. After two years out of the playoffs, the Seahawks were in. After two years in, the Cardinals were out. After one year out, the Steelers were back in. After one year in the Bengals were out. After a couple of years out, the Packers were in won the whole shebang. After a couple of years in, the Vikings were down and out.

The take home message is pretty simple: The playoff picture changes every single year. There are no instant replays in the playoff picture from year to year.

Rich Eisen, Jamie Dukes and Trent Green kicked this can around on NFL Total Access tonight. Jamie and Trent each produced a list of 5 teams they thought would make the playoffs in 2011. Consult the NFL.com for video. They may yet put that one up on the site.

I thought I would quickly put my list of playoff teams up and explain why some folks still won't win it.

1. Giants
2. Texans
3. Rams
4. Bucs
5. Lions

Why the Giants? Only the Eagles look like a playoff team to me in the East, but they are vulnerable and beatable. I like the Giants to resign Plaxico and find their mojo center again.

Why the Texans? I think their defensive crew is better than advertised, and their LBs are better for the 3-4 than some suppose. They need a secondary, but everything else looks pretty decent. I like Wade Phillips to fix their defense well enough to allow a 6 seed in the AFC tournament.

Why the Rams? I like Sam Bradford's return to the Spread with Josh McDaniels. I think we will find a way to fix our wide receiver problems. We don't have much in the way of opposition in the NFC West. I like my Rams to take the 4 seed, despite a tough schedule.

Why the Bucs? I already spelled this out in an early blog entry. I think they have a fundamentally sound crew on offense. I like their chances of finishing their front four defensively in this year's draft. If they finish their line this year, they will have a good defense this year. I think they will be clutch in key moments, despite a tougher schedule in 2011.

Why the Lions? They Lions have big play makers on offense. They need offensive linemen like a dying man needs water in the desert, but I will trust them to do this in the draft in a few days. Surely they cannot be stupid enough to leave young Matt Stafford unprotected for a 3rd straight season?

Now let me discard some popular picks from Trent and Jamie, and tell you why. Here are the teams picked to make the playoffs this season who will not:

1. The Chargers
2. The 49ers
3. The Cowboys

Why not the Chargers? Stick a fork in, their done. I mean done and done. Forget about it. Done. I've already gone over this ad nauseum. Believe me, I do like the Chargers, but this group has categorically missed its window. They are on the downslope. Smith is on a serious loosing streak in the draft. He is the reverse of the Jets. He moves up at grotesque prices and misses.

Why the 49ers? Folks, with their lousy offensive chemistry, no change at the trigger-man, the loss of their defensive brain Mike Singletary, and a brand new coaching administration you can forget about these guys. The first year in the WCO is a bitch. I have no idea in the world how you can fuckin' pick these guys. These guys are going no where.

I was shocked when I heard a very intelligent dude like Trent Green proposing the notion the 49ers have playmakers. Why in the world would that matter if they have lousy chemistry and unit cohesion? Everyone is in a massive state of denial about the 49ers offensive skill personnel. I am telling you: They need a full skill-position clean and flush. Keep the offensive line, rebuild completely at your skill positions.

Right now, it looks like the 49er plan is to bring in a new coach and keep the same failed crew. It ain't gonna work folks. This is the scheme of a Busch-League organization. They have already brought in a hit parade of good coaches to coach these offensive bums. It ain't working.

Why the Cowboys? Finally! An interesting question! Folks, listen to Michael Irvin. The same fuckers who quit on the Cowboys are still on the roster right now. This is partially a consequence of the lock-out, but I don't think they can completely excise the cancer in a quick-time off-season disrupted by this lockout. The Cowboys' problems are deeper than many think. I am also concerned that Jerry might not do enough to fix their offensive line this season. What if Nick Fairley shows up at 9? What then?

There you have it folks

The Ravens get it done 30-7

A you know, yesterday was a day of upsets, confirming that this is indeed a fluky year where anything can happen, and any goat can climb to the top of the mountain. Given the terrible news coming out of Raven camp, I wondered if Baltimore was next.

Nope, forget about it. The Ravens slapped the chiefs 30-7. It wasn't even that close. Believe me, it could have been a lot worse. KC got a temporary stay of execution on yet another horrendous tuck-rule fumble play. The Ravens could easily have walked away with a 37-7 victory.

Though it started slow, the second half was a complete run-away for the Ravens, literally and figuratively. The Ravens defense rose up and devoured Kansas City's fragile offense, creating 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. It should have been 3 fumbles. The tuck-rule has got to go. Damn is that communist inspired bullshit!

The Ravens didn't just beat them. They beat the hell out of them. It looks like Steelers Ravens next and Jets Patriots. This will be the third time both pairs have met this year.

Another monster upset. The Colts go down in the first round.

Drat! Fucked again! You know that's what Peyton Manning and the Colts are saying right now. The Colts have once again exited the playoffs in the first round.

This has happened before... several times. I suppose we really shouldn't be surprised. It was a nasty rough year for the Colts in 2010. If ever they were going to get out quick, it would be this year. Still, the Jets didn't look like the right candidates for the job. As it turns out, they were.

Let's face the facts folks: This is a fluke year. We've been feeling this vibe all year long. The games were exceptionally hard to pick all the way up until week 12 because their was so much noise in the system. Even after week 12, we still had no clear-cut dominant team. The Swami, Chris Berman said early on that he felt this was the kind of year when anything could happen, and dark horse might win the whole frickin' thing.

As we approached this weekend, I felt I should sit down and make my picks several different times. I did not. As you can see in this blog, no playoff picks ever went up. Why is that? Because I was not confident in making any picks. I had a feeling we were in a fluke year, and that means big playoff upsets, but I wasn't confident enough to sit down and call a slew of them.

Right now, things are looking bad for the favorites in the playoffs. If you are favorite, you better run scared. Who knows, the Ravens may be the next favorite to go down in flames. Certainly, Ed Reed's personal tragedy does not help their focus.

The Patriots? Bah… drivel!

The 7 time defending ESPN champs

So, unless you have buried under a rock, you know that ESPN has crowned the New England Patriots the Super Bowl XV champion… before the season is over… and before the playoffs begin. ESPN has crowned the Patriots champion in each and every one of the past 7 consecutive seasons. This includes 2008 when the Patriots failed to qualify for the playoffs. The Patriots are now the 7 time defending ESPN champs.

OH BUT THEY WERE RIGHT IN 2004, 2005, and 2007, and they were undefeated in 2007! Undefeated in 2007, aye? Tell that to the Giants who have big fat diamond rings on their fingers.

I’ll never forget the time last season (2009) when Chris Berman referred to the Patriots as the de facto champs. Q.E.D. quo est demonstratum. For those who complain that there is no east-coast bias at ESPN, you need some of the reality potion the New York Yankees are brewing a little south of your position. Like the Patriots, the Yankees are very close to Bristol. Grab some potion after work.

ESPN has a real bad tendency to get stuck in a groove. This is because the main man, Chris Berman, is a May 10, 1955 Taurus dude. Though he is my Earth brother, and I love the guy, I have to warn you that a Taurus like Berman is the most suborn and fixated character in the zodiac. The rest of the organization has modeled itself around his example. I’ll never forget the time Chris Berman picked the 49ers and Bills as his preseason favorites for the Super Bowl NINE years in a row! It took him almost a decade to give up on that one. I have heard rumors stating that he picked the Raiders v Cowboys nine time in a row back in 1970s. That didn’t happen either.

They say the only dude a Taurus will listen to is a Virgo. If so, I hope I can get this message across clearly, and I hope it will get some consideration. ESPN has been wrong about the Patriots 5 of the last 5 seasons. They have misidentified Patriot weaknesses as strengths in each of the past 5 consecutive years. This has lead to quite considerable error. Who can evaluate that track record of error and not see some form of bias back behind it all?

I’m not buying the Patriots

By now, you should realize that I’m not buying the Patriot theory. Why not? I’ve got some good reasons. Here they are:

1. This team is not the dynasty Patriot team. The one and only hold-over from the glory days is Tom Brady. That is not enough. This is practically an all-new edition, and quite unproven.

2. They just aren’t that talented. You will note that this team doesn’t have many Pro-Bowlers; just three Patriots were elected. Once again, coach Bellichick is doing a lot with a little. This isn’t as good a thing as some would have you believe.

3. Last year, the Ravens not only beat the Patriots in the playoffs, they beat the hell out of them. Until these Patriots prove they can beat these Ravens in a significant game, I favor the Ravens in the AFC.

4. The Patriots are benefiting from unexpectedly weak competition. The Dolphins unexpectedly collapsed in 2010. The Jets have been much weaker than expected in 2010. The Bills… let’s just say those games constitute two free victories for the Patriots. Tough games on the schedule, such as the Packers, turned out to be dramatically easier due to key injuries, such as the Packers’ loss of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriot win total is a little bloated this year, and deceptive.

5. Andrew Siciliano describes the Patriots as “a 10-6 football team with few playmakers, a suspect defense, who are vulnerable on the road.” I am sure he was referencing the spanking the Patriots took from the Browns. I don’t see much wrong with his statement. Though their record is better than 10-6, it might easily be 10-6 under slightly different circumstances. We all know how they creep down the field. You witnessed the way in which Matt Flynn, the backup QB in Green Bay, put more than 30 points on the board against the Patriot defense. The Patriots won’t have to go on the road in this tournament, but home field advantage didn’t help them much last season.

6. The AFC is the second best conference in the league. The dirty little secret we’re all keeping in the closet is that the NFC is now the better conference. The AFC just ain’t what it’s cracked up to be. The NFC won the lion’s share of key matchups between contending playoff teams in 2010. The NFC also contains two of the past three Super Bowl winners. Note that the AFC Steelers nearly lost to the Cardinals in a dandy sandwiched between two NFC victories; one at the expense of the “undefeated” Patriots. My bet will probably be on the NFC champion when SB45 comes around.

7. Our best reasons for believing in the Patriots are the things we’ve heard in the echo chamber, and the echo chamber is dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN. I wonder what the prevailing national opinion of these Patriots would be if we weren’t living in an echo chamber dominated by the North Easterners at ESPN?

I’m making a non-fashionable choice

I’m taking the Ravens in the AFC. If you want to crown their ass (the Patriots) then crown them, but the Patriots are who I think they are, and this is why their opponents should take the damn field.

My final pre-season predictions, one week late

Alright, so I finally got around to finishing my pre-season predictions, less than 45 minutes before the kick off of week two. I know this is technically cheating. I don't give a fuck. If you are honest, neither do you.

Pre-season did not give me much certainty about things in the year to come. It was a very average, run-of-the-mill business year. I needed week one to give me some clarity about what I thought I saw during the pre-season. I think it did, with one noteworthy exception.

As a result of week one, I have made three changes to my chart. I have dropped the Falcons from the playoff picture, and I now expect the Saints to repeat, and not just as NFC South champs. I have also inserted the Giants as one of the two NFC Wildcard teams. I have also dropped the Jets from the playoff picture, inserting the Patriots as the AFC Wildcard.

Justifications

It would appear that the Saints have escaped the Vicodin scandal with ease. Presently, there is no word about the Federal DEA investigation. It also looks like they are rolling. Further, the South looks worse than I expected. The Saints show no signs of weakness in this new season. I think they are going to make one hell of a run.

The Falcons are off and stumbling, losing to an exposed and vulnerable Steeler team that was ripe for plucking. They did not look particularly good in Pre-Season. I think this is going to be another very disappointing season for those of us who believed that the Falcons had assembled the nucleus of a Super Bowl champ.

Much as I suspected, the Jets cut their own balls off when they released Alan Faneca and Thomas Jones. Their offense looks just plain terrible. They looked terrible throughout the pre-season, and they struggled something ugly against the Ravens. Even with Faneca and Thomas Jones, their two offensive MVPs of 2009, the Jets were only 9-7 by a gift from the Colts, and they backed into the playoffs. Only those smoking copious quantities of crack think the Jets are going to Super Bowl 45.

You know that I am not strong on the Patriots, but when I look around the AFC trying to find a second wildcard team, I only see two other possibilities: The Titans, and the Bengals. The Patriots already own a 1-game head to head tie breaker with the Bengals. I am not entirely sold on the Titan defense, despite a tremendous performance against the Raiders. Neither am I sold on the Patriot defense, but they have an easier division to play in.

There you have it ladies and germs: My pre-season predictions, one week late.