2012 Draft: Wacky prediction #1 Jim Irsay selects Robert Griffin III

In the surprise upset of the century thus far, Jim Ersay and the Colts will select Robert Griffin III #1 over-all in the coming NFL Draft.  Robert Griffin, not Andrew Luck, will become Peyton Manning's successor in the Colt's lineup.  This will be the shocker of shockers in 2012.

Why? Let me give you a list of reasons why:

1. Jim Irsay is a Gemini
2. Robert Griffin III is an Aquarius
3. A number of astrological programs I own predict Irsay will like Griffin better than Luck.
4. This is pretty straightforward, if you understand the theory behind it, but there are some interesting wrinkles in this pile of numbers.
5. Jim Irsay has been making some emotional and intuitive decisions lately... like the decision to fire Vice-Chairman Bill Polian.
6. When decisions are made at the gut-level, you chose the kid you like better, rather than the one who comes most-highly recommended.
7. In terms of pure combine numbers, it is likely Griffin will out-perform Luck at the track-meet in Indianapolis.  This will provide a fig-leaf of science to cover pure choice by preference.
8. Robert Griffin III will 'fit' with current Colt personnel such as Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Donald Brown somewhat better than Andrew Luck will.  These are three of the survivors expected to come forward into the new era of Colt football.
9. Many voices are muttering and murmuring about the coming era of the super-mobile athletic quarterback.  Of course, it's guys like Steve Young, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton who created this buzz.  RGIII is expected to raise that buzz.  Many traditionalists reject this argument vehemently.  I suspect that Irsay will be willing to give it a try.  

The interesting wrinkle is that some software programs predict Irsay will like Griffin better on first contact, but get along better with Luck over the long-term.  

Every have one of those relationships?  You like somebody a lot at first, only to discover you don't get along that well in the long-run?  Ever have a luke-warm to cold reaction to someone at first, only to discover you are highly compatible later on?

This is basically what the Astrological software predicts.  Irsay is going to like Robert Griffin a lot when he first meets him, but it may be a difficult marriage in the long run.  Irsay's first meeting with Andrew Luck is going to leave him cold.  He's just not going to have a good or strong feeling about drafting Andrew.  If he does, it should work out fine in the long run.

Beware of those gut-level and intuitive reactions to people.  You can't always trust your feelings.  As the scientists say, try to disprove your theory, don't try to prove your theory.  You're heart can tell lies.

The biggest news of the day: Bill Polian has been fired

Wow... shock of shocks!  The rumors were true.  Jim Ersay, owner of the Colts, has fired Bill Polian.  Rumor had it that Ersay was irate over the position Peyton Manning's contract has placed the organization in.  A tool that was intended to retain Peyton for the remainder of his career has backfired and become the booby-trap that virtually assures Peyton's release this off-season.

You know this is the one and only error that brought down the thunder.

I hope Silent Stan is listening out there somewhere.  Readers of this blog know how I feel about Bill Polian.  I fucking love that guy!  I think he is the best damn executive in the league.  He's been elected the NFL executive of the year 5 times, and that doesn't give him enough credit.  He's better than that.  Several years ago, I wrote a blog entry about how much I would love see Bill Polian take the helm of my Rams.

Now it is possible.

Let's get the Polians to take over command of the organizations.  Let's make it a father and son organization.  Trust me Stan, you're going to love this guy.  You're a Leo.  He's a Sagittarius.  It will work. You'll have a nice accord and it will produce the results you want to see.

An epic tragedy In Indianapolis?

My, my, my... Nobody seems to be commenting on Jason La Canfora's Inside Slant report on the NFL Network's Game Day Morning show. I guess that is because it was just too much to be believed. IF what we are hearing is true, Peyton's story-book career with Colts may end this off-season, and in way so preposterously tragic, the movie would never get made if a Hollywood screenwriter put it down on paper.

According to La Canfora, there is a growing belief among NFL execs that Peyton Manning will not be back with the Colts in 2012. The Colts must pick up a $28 million guaranteed option on Peyton's contract by March 5th, before the league year starts, and before trades are legal. Unless the Colts are certain Peyton can play again, and return to old form, it will be impossible to pick up his contract. It will blow their cap. The size of his contract and his three neck surgeries will make Peyton impossible to trade.

Peyton can renegotiate, and allow more time, but why should he? The Colts are in rebuilding mode. Reggie Wayne is likely to leave in free agency because Peyton's $28m does not leave enough cap room to sign him. Jeff Saturday is likely to retire, and the Colts OL is pretty much dogshit at this point anyhow. Peyton knows his next blow to the neck could be his last. He needs a rock-solid line.

So what option is left? The only logical option left is the following:

1. Release Peyton Manning, obtaining no compensation for him.
2. Draft Andrew Luck and start the rebuild in earnest.

Mind boggling, I know. Completely unbelievable that this is the way it may end...

This suddenly makes sense out of preposterous rumblings I've been hearing in the Colts forums. Essentially, rumors on the street say that owner Robert Ersay is infuriated with president Bill Polian, and considering blowing up his front office.

I scoffed at these rumors when I first heard them. Bill Polian is the 5 time NFL executive of year, and that doesn't give the man enough credit. He's the best exec in the league. Only a fool would blow him out. Don't cut your right arm off because you're pissed that Peyton has a pinched nerve.

Now all of a sudden, the threat seems credible.

Deion Sanders was one of the few voices that criticized Polian for offering such a huge contract to Peyton at a time when he knew Peyton was hurt. Deion also criticized Peyton for taking that contract at a time when he knew he was hurt. When all is said and done, this contract deal may be on the one and only fatal mistake of Bill Polian's career. A contract intended to lock-down Peyton's services until his retirement just may force his premature departure from Indy. What a backfire bomber!

If you are Robert Ersay, and you are forced to release (potentially) the greatest QB of all time, obtaining no compensation, when it was your intention to keep him forever, how would you feel? How do you respond when angry mobs of Colt-fans race to team HQ with firebrands in hand, ready to burn you out? I am sure Ersay is outraged by the position this deal has put him in. I am sure he is mad as hell at Bill Polian right now.

Booouuuuyyy... if the Colts loose both Manning and Polian, the party is all over in Indy. I can understand why few want to talk about this. This is an un-imaginably horrible ending to the story.

So Peyon Manning may indeed miss the 2011 season

The reports were not quite accurate, but they are almost accurate.

1. Peyton didn't have a 3rd surgery Sunday
2. Peyton didn't have a 3rd surgery Monday
3. Peyton had a 3rd surgery today.
4. Jason La Canfora was far too conservative when he said Manning wouldn't play in the month of September.
5. According to Peter King, highly esteemed NFL expert from Sports Illustrated, Peyton is going to miss a couple of months, and maybe the year.
6. However, President Bill Polian did not place Peyton on Injured Reserve, a move that would officially have ended his 2011 season.
7. This indicates Bill Polian does hope to activate Peyton at some point this season.
8. Peter King says the Colts medical staff will evaluate Peyton's progress for at least one month before any decision about the IR list is made.

I had a sense there was some real fire behind this smoke. Local sport talk guys with a good reps don't trash their careers with bogus reports like this. It means a life of flipping burgers if you do.

This is bad, bad, bad, bad stuff. A third neck surgery is rotten news for anybody, much less a world-class athlete. Ed Reed spoke about his own pinched nerve and how much he feared neck surgery. He said he will not undergo surgery until his playing career comes to an end. His research indicates that it just too iffy a procedure, with too much margin for error.

Let's hope three is a charm, but... Folks, let's put it this way: Third time is seldom a charm when it comes to surgery.

Tony Dungy was putting on a brave front this evening, saying the Colts will play through this and win games. Rodney Harrison stated the facts as I know them:

1. The Colts are team built around their offense, and not their defense
2. The Colt offense is built around Peyton Manning
3. Ergo the Colts are built around Peyton
4. Ergo Sum, without Peyton, the scheme falls apart.

You loose more than your All-Pro Quarterback when you loose Peyton Manning. You loose your offensive coordinator, your on-the-field tactician, and you loose your confidence. I don't care who the official offensive coordinator of the Colts happens to be. You know damn well the OC is Peyton Manning.

What is this crap about Peyton Manning being out for the season?

Rumor has it that Jake Query, a radio show host for 1260 AM Radio (WNDE) in Indianapolis, is spreading the word that Peyton Manning is out for the entire 2011 season.

Query reports that he has two reputable sources [whatever that means] who stated that Manning had third surgery on his neck either on Sunday or Monday. According to these reports, Manning will miss the entire 2011 season.

You can read about it here.

Colts owner Jim Irsay denied this rumor through twitter. He vows to clarify the situation soon. Ad meanwhile Peyton has absolutely confirmed that he is out for the opening game against Houston. Jason La Canfora says it will be more than just the first week. La Canfora is on the record saying Peyton will miss the entire month of September.

Jamie Dukes has routinely criticized the Colts organization for running without a back up QB. He often said they were playing a game of Russian Roulette. The Playmaker Michael Irvin has chastised the Colts for letting the team go this long without a good, strong, young, competent backup. I tend to agree.

Something a little like the worst case scenario seems have befallen the Colts this year. Of course, the worst case scenario is to lose Peyton permanently, and we aren't there yet. Hopefully, we aren't going there, or anywhere near there.

Still, I know the folks in Indiana are panicking big time.

Of course, I feel terrible for Peyton, one of the best men--in addition to the best player--in the league. We hope he gets better post-haste.

Still, I am glad I didn't make the Colts my favorite to win the AFC South. I knew something serious was up last year. Peyton just wasn't himself. Most reports indicated that he was not out on the field drilling during the lockout. That is most un-Peyton like. I knew something was wrong. Those stories were confirmed when we heard all these reports about two different surgical procedures on his neck. I knew this was bad, bad, bad stuff. Any surgery around the spinal column is dreadful stuff.

I am very interested in finding out what's going on here.

The end of the Colts as we know them?

Folks who have read this blog for awhile will know that I am no hater of the Colts. I am a Raider hater and a Patriot hater, but not a Colt hater. You will probably find 30 or more posts on this blog where I say terribly flattering things about Bill Polian, Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clarke, Reggie Wayne, et al.

The Colts have been a model organization for the past 12 years. They have not had a single losing season in that time. They have been a model of consistency, continuity, and sportsmanship during this long run. Like their quarterback and President, they are a class act.

With that said I am wondering if 2011 is the year of the breakdown for the Colts. I've watched the Colts first preason game from stem to stern, versus my Rams, several times now. I can't tell you the sense of shock I experienced watching the footage, over and over.

Essentially, what I saw was this: I saw a big, mean, physical, fast Ram offensive and defensive line beat the shit out of a bunch of smaller and weaker Colt linemen. I saw the Rams line knocking the Colts 4 and 5 yards off the line of scrimmage--and with velocity--on almost every running play. What I saw was the Rams playing big-boy football, a-la the Ravens and Steelers. We stood their punching the Colts in the mouth, with impunity, and it didn't seem like there was anything they could do about it.

I know... I know what you're thinking:

1. The Colts didn't have Manning
2. The Colts didn't have Dwight Freeney
3. You just can't tell much from the first preseason game
4. The Colts are a quality team, and they don't get excited about a preason game with Rams

All that is fine and good and true, but you need to have a look at that film footage. If you look at the way those two lines were utterly dominated, you will have to admit that there are red flag warnings flying during this game. A team that is coming up from the depths should not be able to physically destroy the elite Colts in this fashion.

The defense is particularly an issue, as it often has been for the Colts. During the Colts many quality years, they often suffered defensive breakdowns, and often at the worst possible times. Jim Mora was fired and Tony Dungy hired to fix this problem. Dungy often had to work miracles to resuscitate a dying Colt defense. Sometime he succeeded, sometimes he did not.

This is now the Colt's third year without Tony Dungy. In their first year without him, they fired on every cylinder, never missing a beat. Last year, the Colt defense began to crack and crumble. The Colts stumbled greatly on their way to a one-and-done playoff exit. Now in this first preseason game of 2011, I watched them get punched in the face relentlessly by a Rams team that has not had a winning record in 7 years.

I felt like reality was melting down and disintegrating. Folks, the Colts are now officially on my suspect list. I don't know if I can pick them to win the South. I am wondering if this is the year the tires fall off the waggon.

Rams over Colts 33-10

So, my Rams looked pretty decent defeating the Colts [who were without Peyton Manning last night] by a score of 33-10. It's hard to quibble with statistical and scoreboard domination.

Just between you, me and the lamp-post: We know thing would have been different if the Colts had had a fresh and healthy Peyton Manning playing throughout the entire 1st quarter. They might well have had 14 more points by the final gun.

We need an honest assessment, folks.

I took just three things away from this game:

1. Ray Lewis is quite correct when he says that the Colts would be a below average football team without Peyton Manning. Just a few days ago, NFL Network analysts Jamie Dukes and Warren Sapp were speculating about whether Peyton's consecutive game iron-man streak would continue in game 1 of this 2011 season. Charles Davis asked them how the Colts would fare without Manning at the helm. Both agreed that the Colts would not make the playoffs without Manning, and they might not have a winning record. I concur.
2. Sam Bradford seems to be absorbing the Josh McDaniels version of the Spread pretty well. Earlier in the year, I reckoned that this was more of a home-coming than a brand-new system for Sam. My instincts may be right. The good news is that we looked pretty sharp, despite the lack of off-season training.
3. The defense continues to look sharper and sharper under Steve Spagnuolo. I would expect that given a defensive master as the head coach. These guys have bought into Steve Spagnuolo's system, and they are investing themselves deeply in it. Even though they are not the most talented crew around, they are playing very solid team defense. You can do a hell of a lot of damage with team defense. Just ask the No-Name Defense of 1972 Dolphins.

As I have said before, we may well win the NFC West this season, and obtain the 4th seed in the NFC side of the tournament. This has everything to do with the West being a mess this year. I think we're going to slug it out with the Cardinals for the title. The 49ers and the Seahawks should bring up the rear, with the Seahawks looking like front-runners in the Andrew Luck bowl.

Just understand one thing: we entered this off-season with just one super-agenda item. The one and the only thing we absolutely, categorically had to do was obtain a big-playmaker for Sam Bradford to work with. This might have been A.J. Green, this might have been Julio Jones, this might have been Reggie Bush. It might even have been Mark Ingram.

We just didn't get it done.

The lack of a big-time and unstoppable playmaker will place a hard-cap on what we are able to achieve this season.

The four teams in the AFC that won’t play in Super Bowl XLVI

Introduction

So, rather than focusing on the lockout, which began last night, I thought I would have a little fun this morning by sticking my thumb in the eye of the analysts at ESPN and the NFL Network. Why do a thing like that? Because they are a bunch of lazy bastards who always do the easy and non-controversial thing when making predictions about the up-coming season.

This leads to all kinds of error, and a complete lack of awareness of the tremendous changes underway in every off season. Without further Ado, here are the four teams that will not contend for the title in 2011… presuming we have a season in 2011.

The San Diego Chargers

I once again heard voices on the radio and the HDTV flogging the notion that Chargers are an Uber-tallented team that is long over-due for a Super Bowl victory. Don’t make me laugh. That ship sailed years ago. Forget about it.

What are you saying, Dave? Are you saying the Chargers are not an uber-tallented team, and they aren’t over due? Yep, you’re fuckin’a right that’s what I am saying. Why? How can you say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? You gotta be fucking kidding me? How can I say that?

· Because it isn’t fucking 2006 anymore, bitch. Get over it. Get some news updates about the roster and the coaching staff, will you please?

· Marty Schottenheimer is not the head coach of the Chargers. Norv Turner is the head coach.

· The Chargers don’t have L.T. anymore

· The Chargers don’t have Lights-Out Merriman anymore

· Soon, they won’t have Vincent Jackson

· GM A.J. Smith is the epicenter of some very ugly labor strife

Furthermore, I still have two words that categorically prove the Chargers cannot win the Super Bowl in this epoch: Norv Turner. Just in case you haven’t noticed yet, Norv sucks as a head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, and a terrible head coach.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

You know the statistical law: The looser of the Super Bowl doesn’t even make the playoffs the year after. This is one of the greatest, tried and true trends in professional football. Even the 16-0 pseudo-undefeated Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2008.

Of course, this did not prevent ESPN from crowing those Patriots the Super Bowl champions in 2008 and 2009. Likewise, I am sure the Steelers will be a big favorite of the pundits in 2011. Nope, you’re all wet. The Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011… provided there is a 2011.

The New England Patriots

I am sure the crew in Bristol is going into mega-conniption fits, pealing backflips and having babies as they read this line. Tough shit. Read it and weep, bitches.

How can you say that, Dave? Because it isn’t the first half of the 2000s anymore, that’s how I can say it. If you actually watched pro-football games instead of just looking at box-scores, standings and crunching a few numbers, you might actually notice that this Patriot team is nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near the quality of the championship teams that once dwelt there. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball.

But you don’t actually watch the games and/or notice how the teams play, do you? You just crunch numbers right? I watch the games, I crunch numbers, and I filter out bullshit hype. I am far better than you are.

Once upon a time, a long time ago, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. The last of those came some 6 years ago. This is an eternity in Pro-Football time. The team that plays in New England is no longer that team which won those Super Bowls. They may have the same coach. They may have the same QB. They are not the same team, period point-blank, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Do not call them a dynasty. Do not tell me this is a franchise with Super Bowl experience. Do not tell me that the coach and the QB are enough. Do not tell me Bellichick is going to reload in this year’s draft. The dynasty officially ended when the Commish handed the precious to the New York Giants.

It is now absolutely and completely over. The end was signed and sealed with the last three playoff tournament results. They failed to qualify in 2008. They made instant and embarrassing playoff exits in the first round in both 2009 an 2010.

The end. Turn the page. Close the book.

The Indianapolis Colts

Of all my predictions, this is the most dangerous one. Of all the teams picked to be a non-factor, this is the team most likely to be a factor. However, with that said, I think we have pretty good reason to believe that the party is in decline in Indi.

Why do I say that? As we all saw, the Colts suffered two major cracks in their juggernaut last season. Payton Manning was definitely not himself during major portions of the season. We saw a lot of interceptions and miscues that we have not seen from him since his rookie campaign. Furthermore, we saw quite substantial cracks in their defense.

Much blame was laid on injuries. Most voices chanted that pious cant. There was a small, but vocal minority that said it wasn’t so. Peyton had his chief receiver, Reggie Wayne, through the entire year. President Bill Polian laid the blame squarely on the offensive line, declaring that they just weren’t protecting Peyton. Although the line could use some upgrades, I did not notice an incredible number of sacks or pressures in the games I watched, or the compiled statistics.

We need to call a spade a spade: Manning had a bad year. We hope he doesn’t have two. We don’t know whether he will or not. He seems to be fairly deeply involved in the current labor unrest, and he refused to sign his tender. We don’t really know what he is up to in all this, but one thing is for sure: he can’t be allocating as much time as he usually does to off-season preparation.

But on to the defense… As Ray Lewis has correctly said, if you took Peyton away from the Colts, they would be a sub-average football team. I happen to believe Ray was speaking of the Colts defense. It seems that this unit has been perpetually suspect for 6 or 7 years now. Tony Dungy did everything he could to hold that unit together, but it was a high maintenance machine: It kept breaking down, especially in key moments.

I personally doubt that Jim Caldwell has what it takes to prop up the sagging Colt defense. I think this is the most important reason to expect a drop-off in the Colts’ regular season performance this year.

Another monster upset. The Colts go down in the first round.

Drat! Fucked again! You know that's what Peyton Manning and the Colts are saying right now. The Colts have once again exited the playoffs in the first round.

This has happened before... several times. I suppose we really shouldn't be surprised. It was a nasty rough year for the Colts in 2010. If ever they were going to get out quick, it would be this year. Still, the Jets didn't look like the right candidates for the job. As it turns out, they were.

Let's face the facts folks: This is a fluke year. We've been feeling this vibe all year long. The games were exceptionally hard to pick all the way up until week 12 because their was so much noise in the system. Even after week 12, we still had no clear-cut dominant team. The Swami, Chris Berman said early on that he felt this was the kind of year when anything could happen, and dark horse might win the whole frickin' thing.

As we approached this weekend, I felt I should sit down and make my picks several different times. I did not. As you can see in this blog, no playoff picks ever went up. Why is that? Because I was not confident in making any picks. I had a feeling we were in a fluke year, and that means big playoff upsets, but I wasn't confident enough to sit down and call a slew of them.

Right now, things are looking bad for the favorites in the playoffs. If you are favorite, you better run scared. Who knows, the Ravens may be the next favorite to go down in flames. Certainly, Ed Reed's personal tragedy does not help their focus.

I sure hope the NFL doesn't fine Peyton Manning

Manning Bowl II was a bust. The Colts destroyed the Giants 38-7. It was a pretty horrible game from the viewpoint of a casual observer. Worse for guys who chose the Giants, like me.

The most interesting thing about the game was the disturbed, worried look of concern on father Archie Manning's face as the game wound down. Eli did not have a good game. None of the Giants did. Archie's younger son took one hell of beat-down on the scoreboard and on the field. Archie was not happy, and you can understand why. He wasn't precisely mad at Peyton, but he was concerned about Eli.

It turns out Peyton was also concerned. Peyton politely declined to do interviews after the game. That is a first. The reason was obvious. For a guy who just had a great night, he had a terrible night. He might have had the worst great night a great QB ever had.

The body English was pretty clear. He looked a little sick to his stomach. I am sure he didn't enjoy inflicting a major league humiliation on his little bro in front of a national audience. He had to have mixed emotions about the whole affair. I am sure he declined all interviews because he didn't want to wax poetic about his team just axe-handled his little brother's team. Tony Dungy confirmed all this after the game.

Oh well, Peyton, it was a dirty job, but you had to do it.

Now the only drama is whether the League Office is going to do something really, really stupid like send a FedEx envelope to Peyton's locker with one of those nice fine letters. Technically, all the star athletes are supposed to make themselves available to national media after nationally televised games. Technically speaking, Peyton didn't do that.

The NFL front office would do well to leave this one alone.

What I have seen this preason...

The first two weeks of this pre-season pretty well blew past me without much of a notable result. Everything went exactly as I expected. In particular, Tebow flashed strong immediately, and the Rams offensive line flashed weak immediately. Other than that, nothing impressed me much in week 1 or 2 of the preseason.

That changed this week, and it is well it should. The third preseason game is the so-called "dressed rehearsal" for the regular season. I saw a number of things that impressed me a great deal. Let me count them down for you.

Javid Best is going to be the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011

The kid is looking flat-out dynamic so far. I am seeing flashes of Marshall Faulk all over the place. The sky is the limit for this kid, and Matt Stafford can't be more overjoyed about it. Now with Calvin Johnson, Javid Best and Matt Stafford, I am wondering whether Detroit is going to get up off the carpet and make one hell of a surprise run.

I have been soooo impressed by this kid, that I have already purchased his #44 jersey in white. I intend to wear that Jersey for the very first time on September 2, 2010, to celebrate my 44th birthday. Congrats kid! You impressed me so much that you convinced me not to wear the Dallas Clark jersey, and I think the world of Dallas Clark.

The Ravens look like the Super Bowl 45 champions

You better watch out for these guys. They are looking scary. This could be the most impressive end-to-end team I have seen this preseason. The super-duper off-season the Ravens had impressed me a great deal. I made them the tentative-prohibitive favorite [if that makes any sense] in the AFC based on their fantastic off-season.

That high-quality off-season is generating tangible yields, right now, in the 2010 preseason. The Ravens look very strong to me.

The main problem with the Ravens these past two years has been their own internal distrust of their passing game. They have wanted to bring Flacco along slowly, not putting too much on his plate. Now they seem to trust Flacco and are willing to put the team in his hands. Now they are showing flashes of a dynamic offense that can throw well and run like hell.

They will also beat the shit out of you defensively.

This is a goooooooood looking football team. I am mighty damn impressed by these guys.

The Saints look more than prepared to defend their crown

There ain't no sign of a let-down in New Orleans. I must say, it does might heart good to think they might defend their title. If so, they will be the first NFC team to win back-to-back titles since the Cowboys did it in 1995. I have to say: It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fellas and better city.

I am hoping you will pull it off, New Orleans.

The Packers look like they have a Hurricane offense, but a somewhat suspect defense.

The Packers offense look like the 1st Air-Cav division: death from above. Aaron Rodgers is shooting the lights out with a 141 passer efficiency rating. If you watch the film, he looks better than the rating sounds. I saw him make effortless tight-window throws against the Colts' [pretty elite] defense. He made it look easy, and those were not easy throws. 9 out of 10 quarterbacks in this league would have had trouble making all of those throws.

Aaron Rodgers will replace Payton Manning as the NFL's All-Pro QB and MVP in 2010 if this continues. There ain't no doubt about it. He is that good. There is a reason why he is the #1 guy in everybody's fantasy pool right now.

The one problem is a suspect running defense which has given up a number of big runs this preseason. I see some deficiencies in the fundamentals of tackling here. I saw visions of Vince Lombardi screaming "GRAB! GRAB! GRAB! NOBODY'S TACKLING!" You also need to be concerned about the fact that a less-than-physical Colts O-Line shredded your front-7.

I see flashes of the Super Bowl looser's jinx on the Colts

Folks, it ain't just one thing either. First, 49ers tie one on them. Now we see that the NFL has messed up the Colts' much feared no-huddle offense. Just as their running game begins to impress us all, Joseph Addai goes down with a concussion.

Understand that the Super Bowl loser's jinx began in the year 1970 with a Don Shula,/Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts team. That Colt team was at least as good, and probably better, than this Colt team. You can argue they were better coached by Shula. Just immediately after going 13-1, that Colt team finished 7-7, and struggled all the way. The next year (1971) those Colts would return to the Super Bowl, and win it all against the Cowboys.

That was an historically great team that struggled psychologically after loosing the big one. The Super Bowl loser's jinx is real and powerful and effective. The Colts know all about it. You know more about it than I do.

The Cowboy offense looks like shit

During the deep-off season, I joined many in thinking that the Cowboys had to be a mild-favorite to win the NFC. With a sharply weakened NFC-East, and an improved passing attack, I thought the Cowboys might enjoy a cake-walk to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, including the Super Bowl.

Right now I am officially off the Cowboys' bandwagon. What I have seen is an ugly-struggling offense that has not pierced the end-zone this preseason... at least the 1st stringers haven't. Most problematic is the offensive line. It looks like you guys inherited the curse of Alex Barron. Now your offensive line looks like keystone cops at a Chinese fire-drill.

I am being a little facetious here. Alex has actually looked pretty good for Cowboys so far, but the rest of the line, particularly the interior looks like abject and absolutely reprehensible shit. There is no way you guys are going to go to the Super Bowl with a line that looks like that. You got some work to do, and it might be as difficult as the work the Rams have to do.

The Patriot defense looks like shit

And I mean wet, running, stinky, nasty, stenching cat shit too! If you think otherwise, you have a lot of explaining to do. Some say that the Patriots never show you anything but a 'vanilla look' during the preseason. Folks, that is not sufficient to explain what I saw against the Rams.

Understand that the NFL's 32nd ranked offense, an offense that averaged only 10.9 points per game last season, an offense that was shutout by the Redskins and the Seahawks (bottom 10 teams) just went up to New England and popped 17 points on the board before you got up to take a piss.

The Rams went on to score 36. The Patriots kept Tom Brady in the game until the 4th quarter, trying to make it look closer than it actually was. The Patriot broadcast team heaped praise on Bradford to avoid heaping condemnation on Bellichick's defense.

The praise for Bradford was mostly ledgit, but you dropped the ball by failing to condemn the Patriots defense. They looks pretty damn slow and unathletic to me. That defense just doesn't look competitive. They are more than suspect at this point.

Right now, I think 2010 is the year the wheels fall off of that Patriot defense. It would make sense. The hoodie has been keeping it going with smoke and mirrors for the past year.

Jesus looks like shit

So, I trust we are all familiar with the pecular story of Charlie Whitehurst, correct? My favorite piece on BleacherReport.com was titled "Jesus Christ to start at Quarterback in Seattle". I wrote that piece, by the way. The Seahawk fans dug it. I got a lot of nice praise for that humorous piece.

I wanted to make the point that there ain't no way in hell Charlie Whitehurst is the future of the Seahawk organization. I knew that when the trade went down. Whitehurst is a short-term stop-gap solution for the Seahawks for those occasions in 2010 when Matt is injured. Matt is often injured, by the way.

I fully expect the Seahawks to go after a certain fellow by the name of Jake Locker in this upcoming 2011 draft. He is the hometown hero, and he is being developed by Pete's buddy and former offensive coordinator Steve.

Incidentally, more than 60% of the Seahawk fans agreed with me. The polls indicates that they believe Jesus... errr... Charlie is a stop-gap, and Jake Locker is the man of the future in Seattle. Many of them are begging for this outcome. The only doubt comes from those who just don't think the Seahawks will be in a position to take Locker. They all want him.

Charlie is not giving them a reason to stop begging. He's got a QB passer rating of 61. I know he has thrown for a lot of yards, but he has not looked good doing so. Right now, he does not resemble a starting QB in the National Football League.

The Cardinal look poised for a fall, regrettably.

What I say now, I say with a heavy heart: The Cardinals look like they are going down. Not only did they deal Anquan, not only did Kurt Warner retire, not only did Larry Fitzgerald get hurt, but now Derek Anderson is looking like their top QB with an efficiency rating of 70.2. In the immortal words of Herm Edwards, "I'm calling Kurt Warner".

This is not good. I enjoyed watching the Cardinals compete over the past two seasons. I do not like seeing teams occupy the post of "perennial doormats". I enjoyed seeing the Cards get up and make a Super Bowl run.

Now it looks to me as if they are going to rejoin the cellar dwellers at the bottom of the heap. They may want to compete with the Seahawks for Jake Locker. In the meantime, you need to get Sage Rosenfels from the Vikings.

The Rams do look better, but the Jim Plunkett 2.0 remake is still on schedule

The Rams flashed a strong offense against the Patriots, but don't get too hyped about that just yet. All along, I have been warning of a Hollywood remake of the Jim Plunket story.

Do you remember that story? A brilliant Heisman trophy winning passer gets selected #1 by a football team with a shit-ass offensive line. He flashes strong, winning rookie of the year, and even defeating the mighty Raiders. All the way along the line, he takes hit after hit. Eventually the hits take their toll and he starts getting injured.

Fortunately, Jim's career had a happy ending. Mr. Al Davis put him behind one of the finest offensive lines in league history, and he detonated.

Ram fans need to be keenly aware of this historical example as we watch the Sam Bradford story unfold. Already Donnie Avery has been lost for the season on a fluke ACL tear. Lost in the turmoil of the injury was the fact that Sam Bradford got ax-handled on the very same play. I am talking about a high-velocity hit that launched Sam off his feet and pancaked him. He shook it off, just as Jim Plunkett did after so many hits. That fact is cold comfort for Ram fans.

Former 49er Randy Cross praise Bradford's poise, and warned that the Patriot defense was "massaging his chops" after every throw. Things are out-of-order on the Rams offensive line. This needs to be fixed, real soon.

The Rams also need to trade for a certain receiver in San Diego, but you didn't hear this suggestion from me. If I suggest it, Devaney will never make the deal.

What went wrong...?

This morning, one of my coworkers approached me with a distressed look on his face. He said it was a shitty game yesterday, and he anxiously wanted to know what went wrong?

I quickly realized that I was speaking to a guy who didn't listen to anything I said last week. He lost some money to Vegas. Of this much I have no doubt.

"Nothing went wrong, the best team won. This was as the Madden 2010 simulator predicted; plus a little added margin for the pick-6."

"But all the Las Vegas lines favored the Colts", he said.

"Oh you mean they lied to you?" I asked, "You know they collect money when you lose, right?"

"But how could Peyton Manning play like shit on Super Sunday? How could this happen?", he rhetorically asked in distress.

"Did you know Manning's QB efficiency rating was 115.3% before he threw the pick-6? He played amazing football with the exception of that 1 pass."

"Yeah, but that pass killed the Colts!" He said in distress.

"Remember, a touchdown there only ties the game. The Saints would still have two options for victory; one in regulation; one in overtime." I reminded him.

"Yeah, but that put the Saints up by 14!" He said in distress.

"You lost money didn't you?" I asked.

He did not reply. The looser gamblers are in a recriminating, back-biting state of denial this lovely morning. This is because the gambling bill is going to come due soon. 68.5% of all the dollars bet on the Super Bowl were won by the sports books in Vegas. Did you ever have any doubt that Vegas would make money on this deal?

The best team won folks, and Vegas knows that. They played you for a fool. Nothing went wrong. The best team in the NFL won the game. It basically went as expected. Everybody on the NFL Network (except Moochie) picked the Saints to win it yesterday. They knew the Saints were the better football team. The stats will tell you that, if you know how to read stats.

Never bet money as Vegas wants you too. If you bet the Vegas line straight up and down each week during the regular season, you will lose money on most weeks.

I told you... damn it!

Right now I am pretty euphoric. I am overjoyed that the Saints have won it. I am NFC guy. The Saints used to be in West with the Rams. I alway felt bad for them back in the days when they were the Aints. I like the underdog. I also like Dome teams that play aggressive and spectacular offense. This precept qualified both competitors in this Super Bowl, in my book, but the Saints had an advantage.

Just to be clear: I was never against the Colts. I have a ton of respect for them, and greatly admire their great style of play. I would have been okay with it if the Colts had won. I just really wanted New Orleans to win. I would have felt terrible for them if they had lost. I feel bad for the Colts, but they very well could come back and win it next season. Just remember: They get Anthony Gonzalez back next season. Do you want to talk about having way too many weapons on the field? Jesus!

Congrats to the Saints. I am savoring it. I wish I had some vacation time and some money. I would love to travel down there for the party and enjoy it with you.

So the PredictionMachine.com 10% scenario came to pass. The Saints won it by 14 points. A little known corner intercepted Manning and returned it for the TD on what should have been the game tying score. I think I mentioned that as a possible Squirek Factor. Coach Dungy hyper-extended one point of data and broke his neck. Las Vegas will now collect 68.5% of all the money bet on the Super Bowl. They only need to pay out 31.5% of the shares. I told you the Vegas lines were fucking lying to you, you dumb bastards!

I did pretty well, personally. Although I did not bet on the game, I called this matchup in preseason and I've been declaring a Super Bowl victory for the Saints for the past 9 weeks. This should have been obvious to anybody who evaluates teams, and isn't overly awed by mystique. It was obvious to me that the Saints were a beautiful and very well put together football team. They played great team ball all season long. If you dynastanalingus commentators weren't so obsessed with the Saints' history of futility, you would have recognized that 2009 was their year also.

One thing I want to cuss the media out for: This game did not change my opinion of Peyton Manning at all. He is still the same great Peyton Manning he was before the game, and he may well go down in history as the greatest QB of all time, regardless of this game. This loss does not change his status in my estimation. Far too much weight is laid on these Super Bowl victories. Don't hyper-extend one point of data and break your neck.

In the meanwhile, I am very very happy that the Saints won. In my mind, I am partying with you guys in New Orleans. Wish I could be there with yah!

Time to dump the West Coast Offense in St. Louis

It is time for the Rams to dump the West Coast Offense and adopt a more spread-like offense. Our experiment with the West Coast Offense has been a complete and unmitigated catastrophe. I don't mean maybe either.

The West Coast allegedly came to St. Louis in the form of Scott Linehan on January 19th of 2006. He was fired after game 4 of the 2008 regular season. Linehan will be forever known as the man who destroyed the Greatest Show on Turf. He destroyed it by getting rid of the Martz offense, which was little more a collection of plays custom tailored to the exact strengths of our offensive players. Linehan jammed our players into his edition of the West Coast system, a complex ball-control passing system based on flexible and adaptive routes. The players, particularly Torry Holt, Issac Bruce and Marc Bulger absolutely hated the system. They made a lot of mistakes. They were used to running exact routes, tailored to their strengths, and they loved it.

Linehan's solution was to get rid of Issac Bruce, try to unload Torry Holt, and stick with Bulger because of his cap number. That failed miserably.

Two years ago, the Rams drafted #2 overall, signifying that we were the 2nd worst team in football. Two years ago we did the same thing. This year are drafting number 1, signifying that we are the worst team in professional football. As I have stated many times on this blog, we are the worst team in professional football for 1 reason: We finished dead last in scoring. This indicates we have the worst offense in the league. So much for the West Coast in St. Louis.

Make no mistake, a large reason for our lack of point production is the West Coast Offensive system. The West Coast is outdated, outmoded and obsolete. It does not work well anymore. As coach Brian Billick says, nobody plays the West Coast offense as Walsh once did. Everybody has absorbed some components of the system, but nobody plays it as the 49ers did. This is because your can't play it as the 49ers did and enjoy success.

The 49er offense worked for a brief period of time and for just two historical reasons. In 1981 we were only 3 years removed from the 1978 rules changes which opened up the passing game. Teams were absolutely bomb-happy. Defenses were deathly afraid of the bomb. Second, we were only really 1 year removed from the epoch of the Steel Curtain defense. Everybody was still emulating the Steeler model of defense. This system was very much like the Tampa-2, dropping safeties back deep to stop big plays. They used their big and bad 4 down linemen to attack the quarterback, without much recourse to the blitz.

The epoch of 1981 to 1990 was just about perfect for dink-n-dunk scheme that Mr. Walsh invented. Most defenses would surrender the short pass to you, not believing that you could march down the field on a collection of mistake-free short passes. To his credit, Bill Belichick was
one of the first guys to realize that this program was lethal if left unchecked.

Belichick's response to the West Coast was simple and beautiful. He decided he would only defend 40 yards of ground from the line of scrimmage. He knew most of the action would occur in the first 15-20 yards from scrimmage. He called this first 20 yards the redzone. This turf would be defended with a hard man-on press coverage. The next 20 yards was called the yellow zone, and it was defended with a soft-zone coverage; a scheme notorious for generating vicious hits. His linebackers were instructed to smother running backs (like Roger Craig) circling out of the backfield. He knew full well that the 49ers had no thought of going deep down the field on a typical play. He understood Joe Montana did not have the arm to throw the football 50 yards down field with accuracy.

When confronted with the Belichick-Box, the only solution is for the Quarterback to (A) Run with the football (B) wait for the deep pass to open up. For a receiver to clear coverage more than 40 yards down field in full pads, more than 5 seconds of good pass-protection is needed. This was tough to come by as Lawrence Taylor and Leonard Marshall were rushing from the same or different sides of the line. Montana tried to hold the ball for more than 5 seconds in the NFC championship game of 1990/1991. Leonard Marshall effectively terminated his career with the 49ers on that day.

The Belichick Box defeats the West Coast offense. It is now the default defensive position for all teams about to play West Coast opponent. If you don't have an All-Pro offensive line, you won't break the box. If you don't have a super-mobile QB, you won't break the box. If you don't have world-class sprinters at the WR position, you won't break the box. This is why the West Coast Offense doesn't work anymore. Too much talent is required to defeat a relatively simple defensive scheme.

Guess what? The dirty little secret the NFL keeps in the closet is that a modified version of the Spread Offense is now the king of all passing attacks in Pro Football. This is the system the New England Patriots have been running since 2007. This is the system that allowed Tom Brady to break the touchdown record with 51. This is the system Ben Rothlisberger has been working in for the past two years. Both participants in this year's Super Bowl also use plenty of spread in their weekly play list.

The Spread Offense has aspects of the West Coast and aspects of the Air Coryell offense embedded with in it. This is a pass-first offense, where you establish the passing game, and then run later. You control the football and gain the lead by passing. Unlike these schemes, it is run out of the Shotgun. You line up with 3, 4 and even 5 wide receivers. Unlike these schemes, it almost always employs the quick-time, or no-huddle offense. Many plays are called at the line of scrimmage. The Spread most resembles what used to be called the Run-N-Shoot offense.

Interestingly enough, the Spread is considered a very QB and Wide Receiver friendly offense. It is flexible and adaptable to the strengths of your players. It is considered simple enough to implement in the short college season with relatively young and inexperienced players.

If this is a Copycat League, teams should emulate success, and anti-imitate failure. One of the most stubbornly run biased teams in the league has been my Rams, and we are officially the worst team in football. The most run biased team in Football is the Jets. They barely made the playoffs at 9-7. The Colts are dead last in rushing (#32) and yet they are the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl.

What does all this tell you?

1. 1-15 up to 9-7 is the victory range for run biased teams.
2. 9-7 up to 16-0 is the victory range for Spread teams.
   
3. Dump the Run First approach.
4. Adopt the Pass First approach.
5. Do not force players into a ridged and complex system like the West Coast.
6. Adopt a simple and flexible passing scheme like the Spread.
7. Tailor the system to fit the strengths of the players, as Mike Martz did.
   

The Madden 2010 Similator predicts a 35-31 victory for the Saints in SB44

Each year since 2004, EA sports has simulated the results of the Super Bowl using their marvelous John Madden Football software. The set the system in CPU vs CPU combat mode, and they give the system a fresh load of the very latest statistical facts about team and player performance.

How good is the result? The Madden simulator has accurately predicted the outcome each and every year since 2004 with the sole exception of 2007. This was the year that the Giants upset the Patriots. Nobody called that one, and that's why we still play the games.

With the ever increasing sophistication of the software, the growing power of the CPUs, and every improving statistics, the simulator has been getting more and more accurate each year. In the past two seasons the accuracy of results of the simulator have been astounding

1. The simulator accurately predicted a 4 point victory for the Steelers over the Cardinals last year, missing the final score by only 1 point for each team.
2. The simulator predicted a 31-17 victory for the Colts over the Jets in the AFC Championship. It missed by just 1 point. The final was 30-17.
3. The simulator predicted a 34-31 victory for the Saints over the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Further, the simulator called for a last second field goal by the Saints. It turns out the Saints won 31-28 by a field goal in sudden death overtime.

Now Madden says the Saints prevail 35-31. Tomorrow, I intend to show you a simple spreadsheet of team statistics which demonstrates why that prediction is:

1. Totally reasonable and plausible
2. Exactly what we should expect from an unbiased simulation based on stats.

As I said to you once before: If you would like a friendly piece of betting advice, you should take the Saints and the points. Either the Saints will win it straight-up, or the Colts won't cover the 4.5 point spread. Either way, you will win money.

Justice has been served

The match-up for Super Bowl 44 has been set. As expected the Colts will play the Saints in a true #1 vs #2 match up. It's justice. As John Madden used to say, you could see this match up coming all year long. These were the two best teams all season long. They both walked in and out of week 13 undefeated. Now we have it: The dream match up of 2009. Frankly I would have been tremendously disappointed with anything else.

Long suffering Jet fans will be upset with me for saying this, but this just wasn't there time. They just weren't good enough this year to get there. Congrats on making epic improvements. You do have a bright future.

Brett Favre fans, whoever they are, will also be mad at me for saying this, but the Viks were always ice-skating up hill in 2009. Congratulations on defying gravity and time so well, but I doubted you the entire way. Congrats on smashing and unexpected playoff victory over the Cowboys.

I just need to file one complaint with the NFL. The Commish needs to investigate whether the Refs were oiling down the footballs for the NFC Championship game with WD40. I have never seen so many slipups, juggles, fumbles, muffs, jars, botched snaps, and double clutches. I think WD40 is about the only logical explanation for it.

I hate to boast, but if you look way back at my August 2009 blog, you're going to see that I called Saint vs. Colts all the way back there. Not bad for an ordinary guy, eh?

A few last thoughts about week 10 of the NFL season

Steven Young made a great point about week 10 of the 2009 NFL season right after Monday Night Football. "Thank God for the Colts and Patriots, otherwise this would have been an absolutely terrible weekend of football."

No shit! As Young stated, the weekend got underway with a pretty dreadful game between two incompetent teams in the 49ers and Bears. It ended with a dreadful mismatch between the Ravens and Browns. The Ravens should have buried the Browns deep and quick. It did not happen. The Ravens played pretty poor football. They did just enough to win. No mas. All night long there were only a few topics of discussion:

1. How deep is a disaster in progress in Cleveland?
2. Why are the Ravens, a supposedly good team, under performing so badly?
3. Man this game is terrible!!!!
4. Man wasn't that Patriots @ Colts game incredible last night?!?!?

After MNF, they took five minutes to revile the disaster in Cleveland, then it was off to Indianapolis for more passionate discourse about that instant classic.

I wonder how Steve Young views the Saints @ Rams? In all seriousness, I am just curious to know. Was that disastrously poor football, typical of the entire weekend? Was that just a great team in funk because they looked past an 'easy' opponent? Was that a game where the Rams got up on their hind legs and demonstrated that we are actually better than the Browns of this world? Was it some of all of the above? What happened in St. Louis?

If you compare and constrast the performance of the Ravens and the Saints, then compare and contrast the performance of the Rams & the Browns, I think you will have your answer. The Saints were vastly superior to the Ravens this weekend. The Rams were vastly superior to the Browns this weekend. That may not be saying a tremendous amount in either case, but the Saints @ Rams was a hell of a lot better football game then what we saw on MFN.

I myself am wondering if the Rams did enough in this game against--arguably--the best team in pro football to gain the confidence necessary to go on winning streak against some of the weaker opponents we have left on our schedule.

We have Arizona next. That will be a tough game. Then we have Seattle. We need to beat them. Then we have Chicago. That is a winable game. Then we have the Titans. That will be tough. A few weeks ago, that looked pretty good. Not now. Also, the Titans hate us for beating them in the Super Bowl. They always get up their dander for the Rams. Next Texas, and then the Cardinals again. Then we close with San Francisco.

I think we should close the season with at least 4 victories. That should put us out of the top 5 in the draft. Perhaps that is a good thing. I don't like the top ranked QBs in this draft. Let them go high.

A few thoughts on the eve of the apocalyse

The Rams are going to play the Colts on Sunday. Full stop. Most Ram fans stopped reading right there. We just want to forget that this weekend is about to happen. It hasn't happened yet, but we want to forget about it already.

In all seriousness folks, I would love to give some sort of Knute Rockne speech, fire up the boys, and watch them win, but you know and I know that this is a dreadful mismatch. We know that the transitive property of equality does not apply to football teams, but follow this reasoning:

1. The Seahawks shutdown and embarressed us 28-0
2. The Seahawks shutout and embarressed the Jags 41-0
3. The Colts blasted the Seahawks 34-17 in a score that did not reflect how badly the Colts trashed them. The Colts were playing Checkers by themselves. They made any move they wanted when they wanted.
4. The Colts beat the Jags 14-12 in a strange one I can't explain.
5. The Colts made the Cardinals--who are the class of our division--look pretty bad.
6. The Cardinals also made the Seahawks look pretty bad
7. We have not played the Cardinals, but they have made us look pretty bad the last several times we've played them

I have enough points of common data to know that the Colts are schmearing teams we loose to. Everybody knows that Colts are the class of the AFC, and one of the two leading contenders for the Super Bowl. We are not contenders for the crown. We are contenders for the #1 pick again.

It doesn't take a Las Vegas handicapper to figure out that this one is going to get real ugly real quick.

Now flukes do happen. Teams do accidentally take the weekend off when they are supposed to play. Great teams sometimes overlook weak competition. You see sleepwalkers on occasions. I doubt that this is going to happen, but it is the only hope that the Rams have. Otherwise, the Colts are going to Schmear us.

Even if this were our only victory of the year, wouldn't it be grand if we beat the Colts. All the Colts fans just said "FUCK NO!"