The Catch III

Well, that was the best damn contest I have seen in a long time.  In case you missed it, the 49ers just defeated the Saints 36-32.  The game winning play was loaded with types and shadows of playoff victories past for the 49ers.

With 9 seconds left on the clock and the 49ers trailing 32-30, Alex Smith took a quick drop and nailed Vernon Davis over the middle, at the goal-line.  Davis was hit immediately, but held onto the football, falling forward into the endzone for the game-winning touchdown.

It looked almost exactly like the play Steve Young & Terrel Owens executed to defeat Brett Favre and the Packers once upon a time in the playoffs.  Vernon Davis came off the field crying, almost exactly as Terrel Owens did.  They called Young & Owns play "The Catch II".  This was named after the famous Joe Montana to Dwight Clark play that won the 1981/82 NFC Championship game for the 49ers.

If that is the case, then this Smith to Davis play should become known as "The Catch III".

By simply taking you through the winning play, I have short-changed the drama of the game.  34 points scored in the 4th quarter.  Four lead changes in the final four minutes.  Multiple 2-minute drives executed well by both QBs.  It was a struggle all the way. This was one hell of a battle.  I am sure we will be seeing it on the NFL Network this Monday night.  It's already a classic; an instant classic.  The fans are currently ranking this game a 96 on scale of 1 to 100.  That score may go up.

So the 49ers go on to the NFC Championship Game, presumably in Green Bay, but we better not count our chickens before they're hatched.  This game, in itself, was a shocking upset.  Most of us did not believe the 49ers could score enough to win.  A very similar doubt hangs over the Giants.  They may prove us wrong also.  If so, these 49ers will host the NFC Championship game at Candlestick next week.

For me the most amazing moment came before the 49ers first 2-minute drive.  My buddy Colin was sweating bullets, saying "I wish we had Tebow."  I told him, "Maybe it's better that you don't.  With four minutes to grind down, you need to run this drive slow."

The 49ers did not run slow.  The 49ers went down the field based on two big plays.  Alex Smith nailed Vernon Davis on the bomb.  Then, showing shades of the Zone-Read Spread-Option he and Tebow both ran in college, Alex Smith ran the QB Sweep to his left out an empty-backfield shotgun formation.  He went 28 yards for the touchdown.

What was that about Tim Tebow?  Let's remember, Alex Smith was doing the ZRSO thing before Tebow was.

What is this world coming too?  QB's running the football out of the spread for playoff winning scores in the NFL.  Dogs and cats living together in sin!  It must be the end of the world.  The Maya were right, weren't they?

2011 NFL Season, Week 10 Predictions

Week 10, the most difficult week of the year thus far, if you ask me.  There are a number of very interesting games on tap for this Sunday.  This schedule should make for some pretty good television drama.  This will truly be a shake-out weekend.

This is not a bye-week.  All 32 teams have been or will be in action.  The first game went down on Thursday night, and I think you all know that Carson Palmer won that game in fairly spectacular fashion for the Oakland Raiders.  Of course, I am too late to the betting window for that game, so here is my slate of picks.

1. Bills @ Cowboys is an interesting match of two fading teams.  Most experts expect the Cowboys to prevail because the Bills are fading-out.  Believe me, they are not the only ones fading-out.  At the moment, the Bills are ahead of the Cowboys on total-defense and total-offense based on points.  I am going to have to roll with that, picking the Bills against the Cowboys' home-field advantage.
2. Titans @ Panthers.  The Titans are fading, and they are struggling to score points now.  The Panthers are getting better, and they have not struggled much offensively, due to the horsepower Cam Newton provides.  I am taking the Panthers based on better scoring offense and home field.
3. Texans @ Bucs is a pretty easy pick if you ask me.  The Bucs are struggling in many ways.  The Texans are beginning to hit on all cylinders.  I am taking the Texans on general superiority.
4. Jaguars @ Colts.  The Colts have transformed from a an aerial circus offense directed by Peyton Manning to an erstwhile power-running team under Curtis Painter.  The problem is that they can't run.  The Colts are 27th in points scored, a place they never dwell.  Now the Jags are dead-last in points scored, but they also feature the #8 defense by points.  Honestly, if the Colts are going to win one this year, this might be the game, but I don't think they can score enough to win against the #8 defense.
5. Cardinals @ Eagles is a big mismatch, and the Eagles have home-field also.  The Eagles are anything but the dream team, but the Cardinals are a whole lot worse, especially on the offensive line.
6. Saints @ Falcons is the first meeting between these NFC South rivals this year.  One team will exit this match-up a contender, the other team will suffer damage to their playoff standing.  If you ask me this is the toughest game to pick on the entire board.  I almost punted by saying "Pick'em".  However, the Falcons are missing their crucial Left-Tackle Sam Baker.  He is out with a back injury.  I think this will be the difference.  I take the Saints.
7. Rams @ Browns is a match-up of small-fries, and it is very difficult to pick because of that.  Most experts believe the Rams have to be favored because the Browns are suffering the #30 ranked defense against the run.  The Rams have a good line (for the run, at least) and Steven Jackson.  The reason for the Browns defensive problems is obvious.  They have not mastered team defense.  Their gap-discipline breaks down quickly.  They over-pursue a lot.  I am leery of this choice because the Brown are ranked higher than the Rams in points scored and points allowed, but I will make the homer-choice and pick my Rams.
8. Redskins @ Dolphins features the DOA Redskin offense against a newly resurgent Dolphin defense.  I just don't believe the Redskins can score enough to win in this game.  I take the Dolphins and their home field advantage.
9. Broncos @ Chiefs features my son, Tim Tebow, against the little girl with the curl. I don't think I have ever seen a Dr. Jeckle and Mr. Hyde team quite like these Kansas City Chiefs.  When they are good, they are very, very good.  When they are bad, they are horrid.  This is the most inconsistent football team in the entire NFL.  They just laid a stinker against the Dolphins last week, and I cannot pick them with any degree of comfort this week.  I think Tebow wins again.
10. Steelers @ Bengals.  Quick reality check for you:  Did you know the Bengals are currently the #1 seed in the AFC tournament at this stage of the season?  They have the #3 ranked defense, and they have a rookie QB/WR tandem that is the best in NFL history.  I think the Bengals are going to step up this week and make a political statement at home.
11. Ravens @ Seahawks seems like a mismatch, but we have seen the Ravens look exhausted after victory over the Steelers before this season.  I worry about this match up because of the tremendous home field advantage the Seahawks enjoy in Qwest Field.  However, the Seahawks are a vastly inferior football team when compared to the Ravens.  I still believe the Ravens are the most powerful football team in the AFC.  I am taking the Ravens.
12. Lions @ Bears is a really pesky match-up.  Those Bears... those fricken' pesky Bears...  They don't seem set to do anything this season, but they hang around and upset people who should beat them.  I believe the Lions are a vastly better team, so I am taking the Lions, but I will be monitoring this one closely.
13. Giants @ 49ers is the game of the week if you ask me.  I doubt the Saints and the Falcons can match up with the Packers.  For some reason, I expect the Packers' chief rival for the NFC crown to emerge from this football game.  It seems like old times.  The Giants and the 49ers were once a premiere match up back in the 1980s and early 1990s.  Now it is again.  This game could go either way, but I expect the 49ers to prevail because of their [H]ardcore defense.  Did you know that the 49er defense is #1 in the league by points allowed.  Furthermore, Matt Millen says they have the best front-seven in the league.  Expect a low-scoring brutal grudge-match reminding us all of the 1990 NFC championship game.
14. Patriots @ Jets is a rematch, and the final meeting between these two in the regular season.  In the first game, the Patriots prevailed 30-21.  I do not believe the Patriots have what it takes to sweep the Jets, and not on their home field.  I am taking the Jets.
15. Vikings @ Packers is another mis-match.  I am taking the Packers in the easiest choice on the board.

2011 NFL Preseason Prediction

So, after seeing most of preseason games on the NFL Network, CBS and Fox, I feel as confident as I ever will about issuing my preseason predictions. I hereby predict that the 2011-2012 NFL Playoff picture will look like this

NFC Tournament

1. Packers 13-3
2. Falcons 12-4
3. Eagles 11-5
4. Rams 8-8
5. Saints 11-5
6. Lions 10-6

AFC Tournament

1. Ravens 13-3
2. Jets 12-4
3. Texans 11-5
4. Chargers 8-8
5. Patriots 11-5
6. Colts 10-6

NFC North

The defending world champion Packers are the prohibitive favorite to repeat as the NFC North champ. They also prohibitive favorites to repeat as world champs. Most of us see the Packers the same way. This team is straight-up loaded to the gills. If they can win the Super Bowl in year as ravaged by injury and adversity as last season, what in the world will stop them this year? This is the best bet to repeat since the 1992-1993 Dallas Cowboys.

The Bears made some major mistakes in the draft and in free agency. They did nothing much to repair their dreadful offensive line. They did nothing to equip their QB with weapons. The Bears have a nasty historical tendency to be good one year and down the next. All of this adds up to the conclusion that the Bears will barely factor in the NFC North.

The Vikings may be a bit better with Donovan McNab at the helm, but I don't expect a full return to respectability. I expect them to be competitive, not dreadful, and finish 9-7.

This brings us to the Lions. Rich Eisen says the Fire Marshall has ordered people off the bandwagon due to overcrowding and safety issues. The Lions are everybody's preseason darlings. It's about time. This is a long-suffering fan base who have waited, and waited... This team is loaded everywhere except the Secondary and the OL positions. Those are both critical weaknesses. Nevertheless, I expect the Lions to do very well. I predict a 10-6 record a #6 seed in the NFC tournament.

NFC East

We've heard a lot about the Eagles being the NFL's equivalent of the Miami Heat Dream-Team, and there is some merit in these comments. I think Eagles have to be favored to win the division at this point. This does not mean they will ultimately win the division, but I do believe you have to make them the preseason favorites.

I am not particularly strong on the Eagles. I do not believe they are a legit Super Bowl contender. I do not believe they match up well with the Packers, Falcons, or Saints. I think any of those three teams can knock them out of the NFC bracket in the tournament. If Eagles get there, they going to have to run one hell of a gauntlet to get there. I don't think they can do it. They just aren't that physical a football team.

This brings us to the New York Giants. The Giants are the leading candidates to upset the Eagle tea-party. However, they suffered several major set-backs in preseason: 3 major injuries including both their #1 and #2 picks. It sucks to be a Giant fan right now. A team that was certainly competitive now has some doubts. The Giants also have some issues surrounding changes on their OL, but so far that unit is looking pretty good. I predict the Giants will be 10-6 but lose the 6th seed to the Lions based on tie-breakers.

I believe that the Cowboys are rebuilding and not redecorating by moving the furniture around. Their changes on the offensive line have been profound, with 80% of their starters changing. Ultimately, the Cowboys won't be a highly competitive team this year.

This brings us to the subject of the Redskins. Before preseason began, I believed the Redskins were the most talent-less and dysfunctional organization in football. I made them my prohibitive favorites to win the Andrew Luck Bowl. I remember scoffing when I heard Joe Theisman denying this assertion on NFL Total Access. "He's a loyal hommer. Can't blame him for being blind to the facts", I though.

Well shut my mouth and call me a fool. The Redskins have been shockingly competitive in preseason, whupping the Steelers and coming within a hair's breath of beating the Ravens. That Raven game was the most entertaining dandy of the 2011 preseason. The Skins may lack a mountain of talent, but Mike Shanahan has gotten these dogs to get up on their hind legs and fight like pitbulls. That is some serious coaching! If he can get this motley crew to go 7-9 or 8-8, his genius as a coach will be re-confirmed and he will get my vote as NFL coach of the year.

NFC South

Welcome to the toughest and nastiest division in professional football. This is the division where 3 of the 4 residents are all talented contenders. Two of your top 3 prospects for the Super Bowl dwell here.

Last year the Falcons earned the #1 seed in the NFC, and they have gotten better. The big problem is that they have gotten better on offense and not defense. Many consider the Falcon defense a bit suspect and the Achilles heal of the football team. The Falcons obviously disagreed. They traded their entire draft for Julio Jones so they could assemble a trifecta of brilliant pass-catchers for QB Matt Ryan: Tony Gonzales, Roddy White and Julio Jones. Obviously, the Falcons believed they need more explosive offense, not more dominant defense.

We shall see if their hypothesis was correct. It shall be put to the test. Right now, I consider them a good bet to repeat as NFC South camp.

The Saints are a particular favorite of mine. I like these guys quite a bit, but I don't like the loss of Reggie Bush. Reggie was the Swiss Army knife that allowed this offense to be explosive. He also delivered on the special teams. I think this loss is going to hurt more than they think.

I love the acquisition of Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. He was one of my favorite kids in the the 2011 draft. I wanted the Rams to take him, and I drafted him for my fantasy team. I would not have done that if I wasn't expecting good things from him. However, he is not a one-for-one drop-in replacement part for Reggie Bush. These are two different guys who do two different things. They are as different as Marshall Faulk was from Emitt Smith.

There is another factor to consider. When the Saints won the Super Bowl they featured a 3-4 defense with Darrin Sharper ball-hawking in the defensive backfield. Now they have a 4-3 defense without Sharper. Right now the defense is looking bigger, meaner, more physical and dominant than ever. We shall see if this holds true in the regular season. However, this is a big, big change. Don't over look the magnitude of this change.

I am very bullish on the Buc. I think they are loaded on offense. I think they have a clutch QB and three good receivers, a power runner, and a bunch of big offensive linemen. I believe they successfully completed a dominant defensive line in the 2011 draft.

If the Bucs were in the AFC or NFC West, they would have to be the favorites to win those divisions. Unfortunately, they are in the biggest, baddest, toughest division in the NFL. The Bucs biggest problem is the twin 800 pound gorillas sitting on top of them. This going to be a serious issue for them.

Given the power of the Lions and the Giants, I find it very difficult to pick the Bucs as the 6th seed in the tournament. It could happen, but both the Lions and the Giants would have to stumble. I don't see that happening. One might, but the other won't.

This brings up Carolina. Forget about it! You fucked up big-time in the draft. You just might win the Andrew Luck Bowl. You got three Godzillas in your division just waiting drop down on your head and go caca-doodle-do.

NFC West

As I have said before, I see the NFC West as a two-horse race between the Rams and the Cardinals.

Many experts have anointed my Rams as the class of the NFC West. We appreciate this, but it is not a done-deal just yet. My 2011 Rams feature a greatly-improved offensive line that was manhandling and abusing enemy defensive lines this preseason. Who knew Harvey Dahl could make such a big difference? We also have a greatly improved defensive line that features our #1 pick Robert Hall, and free-agent acquisition Justin Bannan. This is reason to celebrate. The game is won and lost in the trenches.

Over on the negative side of the fence, our receiver corp is no longer the worst in football... hopefully... but it still far from the best. We still lack big-time play makers and game changers. This will place a hard-cap on what we can do this season. We will find it difficult to upset superior opponents without game-breakers on offense.

We also have a vastly more difficult schedule than last year, but not as difficult as some presume. The NFC South was no cake-walk last season. Neither was the NFC North. Overall, if we can improve our record by 1 game, it will be a pretty good year.

I expect the Cardinals to be resurgent in 2011. Their first unit looked like dynamite against the Chargers in preseason. It looks to me like they are getting what they wanted out of the Kevin Kobb trade. He is hitting Larry Fitzgerald in the great-wide-open with intermediate and long passes. That is what they need offensively. Further, Beanie Wells is starting to show up strong on the radar. It's about time. I once picked him as my rookie of the year. Finally, Patrick Peterson is looking like an impact rookie. Did you see him jump that route and intercept Philip Rivers for a Pick-6? Rivers was pissed. Peterson is an exciting, exciting rookie.

It is going to be a very interesting and asymmetrical battle between the Rams and the Cardinals for the title.

What about the Seahawks? Forget about it! Stick a fork in it, their done. They let their franchise QB go, and they have nothing in hand to replace him. Do you remember Herm Edwards' Law? I am subtracting 4 victories from their 2010 record for the lack of a franchise QB. This puts the Seahawks at 3-13, and near the top of the draft. They may be intentionally tanking this season so they can win the Andrew Luck Bowl.

What about the 49ers? If you want to know who is at or near the top of my hot list for who was the most screwed by the lockout, the 49ers would probably be #2. The 49ers did play a bit better than I expected during this preseason, but this is a hard-pressed franchise right now. They are in the midst of a full-flush and clean of the coaching staff, a conversion to the West Coast Offense, Quarterback transition, and a deeply worn-out franchise running back. The defense lost it's heart and soul when Mike Singletary was fired. Call it 3-13 folks.

AFC North

The Ravens are my prohibitive favorite to win the AFC, not just the AFC North. I think it is Packers v Ravens in Super Bowl 46. I love the architecture of this team. I love their offense. I love their defense. I love their special teams. I love their head coach. They got one of the greatest GMs in the league, and he is a home-grown guy, raised inside the organization.

Throughout much of last year, the Ravens looked like the most powerful team in the NFL. They sputtered a bit down the stretch, ending with another disappointing loss to the Steelers. I don't think this will happen again this year.

Joe Flacco is seen as the key man by nearly everyone. This team will go as far as their QB's performance will allow them to go. Many site a lack of success in the final 2 minutes of clutch games as being Joe Flacco' s key weakness. They compare that to Ben Roethlisberger's tremendous success in the final 2 minutes of clutch games, and they bet against the Ravens.

Give Flacco a little chance here. He's one of the most over-criticized men in the league. I think he's going to do it. Some call him a front-runner, but I think he can front-run through the entire AFC this year.

Regarding the Steelers, I am going to stick with the statistical and historical tables that firmly teach us that the team that loses the Super Bowl does not make the playoffs the next year. Accordingly, the Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011.

Steeler nation will complain bitterly that the Steelers are better organization than that, and they are showing new signs of explosive offense. I don't care. I am sticking with the probability tables, no matter what. I would remind you that the last time you won the Super Bowl, you did not make the playoffs the next year. Now you have to face the post-loss depression.

The Browns are rising football team, and the most likely to upset my playoff picture. I would make them my #7 seed and the first team to play their way in if somebody else should stumble. Mike Holmgren is turning that franchise around, but it might take one more year to reach the playoffs. They are looking dramatically better, though.

What about the Bengals? Forget about! This is a heavy rebuilding year. Stick a fork in, their done. Call it 3-13.

AFC East

I know you... I know what you are thinking! You are think the Patriots, the 8 time defending ESPN champions, will win the Super Bowl for a 9th straight season. Aren't you thinking that? I know you are.

Get off drugs! The Assemblies of God run a good detox program called Teen Challenge. It will help you to sober up.

In case you were wondering I am not a believer in the Patriot theory. The Patriots got to 14-2 last season through scheme, smoke and mirrors, and plain-old luck. How lucky they were to face the Packers without Aaron Rodgers? They almost lost that game anyhow. I was one of the few guys not surprised by their quick exit from the playoffs. One and done, bitch.

The fact of the matter was that the Patriots were a 10-6 class football team that somehow made it to 14-2 by a fluke. That was the flukiest outcome since the Rams went 13-3 in 2003. In case you didn't get the memo, the Patriot dynasty officially ended in 2007. That was it. That was all she wrote. Over and done with. No more Patriot dynasty, Buber.

They are a little bit better this year, but their arch-nemesis is also better this year... I think. The Patriots are still nothing to write home about in 2011. They will not be a major factor in the Super Bowl 46 picture. I think they get the 5th seed and lose in the first round to the #2 seed... which would be the Jets again.

This brings us to those frickin' Jets. I did not like some of their moves in this off-season, but the overall picture is improved. I didn't think Plaxico would do well in this environment, but so far so good. I think all systems are go for them to win their first Easter Division Title in quite some time.

What about the Dolphins and Bills? What about them? They are cannon fodder. Stick a fork in 'em, they are done.

AFC South

The AFC South is the most difficult call on the entire scoreboard. The Colts are great organization, but I see them on the cusp of a down-turn. Manning is recovering from neck surgery, and may miss the beginning of the season. If he does, they will lose every game they play without him, I assure you of that.

Furthermore, I don't like the Colts offensive and defensive lines this year. I done saw them get blowed out too many times in preseason to believe this group is ready for trench-warfare in 2011. I think both line units are suspect. That is a very untoward and foreboding sign of problems in the near future. I don't expect great things from the Colts in 2011.

Furthermore, I suspect Jim Tressell has been brought in as an heir-apparent waiting in the wings should Jim Caldwell lose favor due to adversity. I think Bill Polian has his backup plan in his hip pocket right now.

This brings us to the Texans, the heir apparent waiting in the wings. Folks, I love what I saw from their defense in this preseason. Wade Phillips is working some major-league magic in reviving this unit. He's doing it again, I am convinced of it.

Just sit back and imagine what this high-powered Texan offense will do if they have a #12 ranked defensive unit to make their scores stand up? Dude! They could do so much more! If the defense can terminate just 7 possessions a game without a score, the Texans should win a lot of games. Right now, I think they can go 11-5, and I think that might be enough to defeat a diminished Colt team.

What about the Jags and the Titans? I don't have much confidence in either. Both are going to be breaking in rookie QBs. The Titans are going through a full-scale rebuild right now. I expect both to finish low.

AFC West

Regrettably, we must now discuss the worst division in professional football, the AFC West. Regrettably, I must select the Chargers.

I want it to be understood that I have absolutely no faith or confidence in the Chargers. I mean zip, zero, ziltch, nil, nada, nothing in the way of confidence in the Chargers. I think they are dead meat in the playoffs. They will exit quietly with their tails between their legs, one and done.

Still, I have to pick them because there is nobody else to pick in the AFC West. I have looked at the other three teams and I see absolute dog shit piled on top of dog shit. I see a Chief team that looked plain terrible in preseason. They have regressed mightily. I see a Denver team that is still in the Titanic mess that Josh McDaniels put them in. It will take them a couple of years to dig out of this mess.

And then we have the Raiders. This is truly the most dysfunctional organization in professional football. I thought that might be the Redskins, but they are proving me wrong. Al Davis is in the 7th stage of dementia due to advancing Alzheimer's disease, and he won't take his hands of the wheel of the ship.

I am convinced that this team will continue to founder and crash on the rocks until the day Al gives up the ghost.

In the preseason, the Raiders looked absolutely terrible. They were worse than even the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders are the prohibitive favorite to win the Andrew Luck Bowl. This is probably the worst team in professional football. I think the Raiders finish 1-15 or 2-12.

Poor Andrew! I'm hurting for you kid, but take hope: Knowing, Al, he just might trade your pick to get a couple of unknown track stars.

The end of the Colts as we know them?

Folks who have read this blog for awhile will know that I am no hater of the Colts. I am a Raider hater and a Patriot hater, but not a Colt hater. You will probably find 30 or more posts on this blog where I say terribly flattering things about Bill Polian, Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clarke, Reggie Wayne, et al.

The Colts have been a model organization for the past 12 years. They have not had a single losing season in that time. They have been a model of consistency, continuity, and sportsmanship during this long run. Like their quarterback and President, they are a class act.

With that said I am wondering if 2011 is the year of the breakdown for the Colts. I've watched the Colts first preason game from stem to stern, versus my Rams, several times now. I can't tell you the sense of shock I experienced watching the footage, over and over.

Essentially, what I saw was this: I saw a big, mean, physical, fast Ram offensive and defensive line beat the shit out of a bunch of smaller and weaker Colt linemen. I saw the Rams line knocking the Colts 4 and 5 yards off the line of scrimmage--and with velocity--on almost every running play. What I saw was the Rams playing big-boy football, a-la the Ravens and Steelers. We stood their punching the Colts in the mouth, with impunity, and it didn't seem like there was anything they could do about it.

I know... I know what you're thinking:

1. The Colts didn't have Manning
2. The Colts didn't have Dwight Freeney
3. You just can't tell much from the first preseason game
4. The Colts are a quality team, and they don't get excited about a preason game with Rams

All that is fine and good and true, but you need to have a look at that film footage. If you look at the way those two lines were utterly dominated, you will have to admit that there are red flag warnings flying during this game. A team that is coming up from the depths should not be able to physically destroy the elite Colts in this fashion.

The defense is particularly an issue, as it often has been for the Colts. During the Colts many quality years, they often suffered defensive breakdowns, and often at the worst possible times. Jim Mora was fired and Tony Dungy hired to fix this problem. Dungy often had to work miracles to resuscitate a dying Colt defense. Sometime he succeeded, sometimes he did not.

This is now the Colt's third year without Tony Dungy. In their first year without him, they fired on every cylinder, never missing a beat. Last year, the Colt defense began to crack and crumble. The Colts stumbled greatly on their way to a one-and-done playoff exit. Now in this first preseason game of 2011, I watched them get punched in the face relentlessly by a Rams team that has not had a winning record in 7 years.

I felt like reality was melting down and disintegrating. Folks, the Colts are now officially on my suspect list. I don't know if I can pick them to win the South. I am wondering if this is the year the tires fall off the waggon.

Rams over Colts 33-10

So, my Rams looked pretty decent defeating the Colts [who were without Peyton Manning last night] by a score of 33-10. It's hard to quibble with statistical and scoreboard domination.

Just between you, me and the lamp-post: We know thing would have been different if the Colts had had a fresh and healthy Peyton Manning playing throughout the entire 1st quarter. They might well have had 14 more points by the final gun.

We need an honest assessment, folks.

I took just three things away from this game:

1. Ray Lewis is quite correct when he says that the Colts would be a below average football team without Peyton Manning. Just a few days ago, NFL Network analysts Jamie Dukes and Warren Sapp were speculating about whether Peyton's consecutive game iron-man streak would continue in game 1 of this 2011 season. Charles Davis asked them how the Colts would fare without Manning at the helm. Both agreed that the Colts would not make the playoffs without Manning, and they might not have a winning record. I concur.
2. Sam Bradford seems to be absorbing the Josh McDaniels version of the Spread pretty well. Earlier in the year, I reckoned that this was more of a home-coming than a brand-new system for Sam. My instincts may be right. The good news is that we looked pretty sharp, despite the lack of off-season training.
3. The defense continues to look sharper and sharper under Steve Spagnuolo. I would expect that given a defensive master as the head coach. These guys have bought into Steve Spagnuolo's system, and they are investing themselves deeply in it. Even though they are not the most talented crew around, they are playing very solid team defense. You can do a hell of a lot of damage with team defense. Just ask the No-Name Defense of 1972 Dolphins.

As I have said before, we may well win the NFC West this season, and obtain the 4th seed in the NFC side of the tournament. This has everything to do with the West being a mess this year. I think we're going to slug it out with the Cardinals for the title. The 49ers and the Seahawks should bring up the rear, with the Seahawks looking like front-runners in the Andrew Luck bowl.

Just understand one thing: we entered this off-season with just one super-agenda item. The one and the only thing we absolutely, categorically had to do was obtain a big-playmaker for Sam Bradford to work with. This might have been A.J. Green, this might have been Julio Jones, this might have been Reggie Bush. It might even have been Mark Ingram.

We just didn't get it done.

The lack of a big-time and unstoppable playmaker will place a hard-cap on what we are able to achieve this season.

The correct ending to this fuke year

As you know, predictability in the NFL Playoff system has reached a point fairly close to ZERO. If every game were an upset, we would simply pick the team least likely to win under normal conditions. However, a few teams have won at home. A few higher seeds have taken down lower seeds. This greatly increases the noise in the system. The signal to noise ratio has almost bottomed out.

I am sure Las Vegas is awash in money. 2011 is already one hell of a good year for Vegas. Some poor benighted souls think Vegas only makes money if they pick the winners correctly. Not true. Perish the thought! Vegas makes money when more than 50% of the dollars wagered ride on a loosing proposition. This is a very different formula.

Speaking of putting money on a losing formula... Only a few stupid suckers put money down on the Jets yesterday. All the smart money was on the Patriots. This is why all the bookies in Vegas awoke this morning with happy Christmas smiles on their faces. They feel it is a great day to be alive and be an American. I'll tell you one thing: This is a great day to be alive and be an American if you are a heretic/apostate unbeliever in Jesus Bellichick.

But I digress... We're in trouble folks. Picking favorites in these conference championship games is going be a trecherous affair.

If we say that the best approach is to select by record, seed, and homefield advantage, the Bears play the Steelers in SB45. That is a dangerous pick in this year of the fluke. If we say that the worst possible approach is to chose by record and seed, the Packers play the Jets. Of course, this may yet happen in the year of the fluke. If we crosswire for the most powerful looking teams, we will probably chose the Packers and Steelers, in a battle of used-to-was dynasties in rather small markets.

Now if we chose for the most unlikely combo of teams possible, we will honor the year of the fluke, and pick the Bears vs Jets. Surely, this is a matchup that elitists like Colin Cowherd will utterly detest. These two teams have a total of two Lombardi trophies between them. They have done it, but they are two least storied franchises we have left. What mythological storylines of NFL Royalty and Nobility will the elitist tell in the two weeks leading up to the Bears v Jets?

Maybe they will declare that the meek have inherited the earth? You know the news guys are always praying for the big story. They are cheering for a good hype line.

On the other hand, New York will be battling Chicago, and that should generate plenty of ratings. The big city press machines are going to love that. In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you should tell the story of the rivalry between New York and Chicago... not just in sports, but all things Americana. You can start with Pizza and work up to Steakhouses.

Of course, Los Angeles cannot participate because we just don't have any football teams here. Tough shit.

Do we dare to pick the Bears v Jets...?

My Super Bowl Predictions... Shot to hell in one day

Day of upsets

As far as I am concerned, this Saturday was just like last Saturday: Another day of upsets. Some will complain that it just ain't so, but this is the way I am taking it.

Ravens blow it in a choaker

As you know, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Baltimore Ravens 31-24 yesterday in a pretty massive come-from-behind victory. When the Ravens took a 21-7 lead, I knew it was over. This was going to be a laugher, and I was astonished by how easy the Ravens were making it look.

Not so fast. The Ravens would blow it. You can't tell me this one doesn't smart like hell in the Baltimore locker room. The Ravens had the victory in the bag. They fucked it up. You let them off the hook.

Why is this an upset? Because the Ravens were looking like the most powerful team in the AFC throughout much of the 2010 season, that's why. Many of us considered the Steelers absurdly lucky to escape with the division title this year. This is the reason why Ben Roethlisberger gave us that post-game speech about how proud he was that the Steelers proved themselves to be the true AFC North champions yesterday.

Packers pack fudge

As you also know, the #6 seed in the NFC took down the #1 seed in the NFC last night. Why is that an upset? Whenever the 6 seed takes out the 1 seed, we usually consider that an upset.

Some would protest that designation, as the Packers are considered--by many--to be the most dangerous team in the playoffs. This is the team you don't want to play. They looked every inch of that designation and some last night.

The Green Bay Packers didn't just beat the Falcons. They took the little shavers down to the woodshed and sharpened them up with a leather strop. That was a damn ugly ass-whipping to take in front of your home crowd.

What has happened to my Super Bowl?

For those who don't remember, I was (more or less) expecting the Ravens to meet the Falcons in the Super Bowl. I didn't make playoff predictions before this tournament began because I had a heavy feeling that this is a fluke year.

This isn't entirely a disaster for me, as I had the Packers in Pre-Season. I lost confidence in them as their casualty list waxed long.

Still, I'm warning you... Any goat can climb to the top of the mount this season. Don't be too confident in any of your predictions right now. This is a fluke year.

All I can say is this: You Packers better win the whole fucking enchilada, or I am going to be pissed as hell at you. It's fine if you guys win it, but if... per chance... you or the consequence of your actions allow the Steelers to win their 7th championship, I'm going to be really fucking pissed at you.

The nightmare after the upsets

So I go to bed last night around 2:00am, well after the upsets are over, and I have an unbelievably vivid dream. It wasn't a Vivid dream. It was a vivid dream.

I dreamt I was watching the Vikings play the 49ers in Candlestick in a divisional playoff round. The 49ers were the heavy favorite. The Vikings were the 4th seed North champs. Somehow, the Vikings pulled off a major upset in a heart-attack thriller. The Vikings were dancing off the field when the clock hit zero. It was bedlam for the Vikings.

I would have thought this was a rewind to the 1980s, except for the fact that it was Jared Allen doing all the celebrating and the post-game interviews. This victory meant that the Vikings would return home to host the NFC Championship game, in a Cardinal-type scenario.

This dream makes no sense. Neither the 49ers nor the Vikings made the tournament this year. Neither looks likely next season. Nevertheless, this dream scares me. I'm going to have to watch these two teams closely in the off season. This omen does not bode well for my Rams. If the 49ers were to be the #2 seed in the 2011 tournament, this would necessarily indicate that (1) my Rams didn't win the division, and (2) Jim Harbaugh will do a tremendous job pulling them up off the carpet.

The Seahawks terminate the reign of the champion Saints

It is the best times. It is the worst of times. The Saints have lost their title defense, and in a most ignominious way. The Seahawks of the lowly NFC West, surely the worst team ever to make it into the playoffs, did the blade-job on them. They are calling it the biggest upset since the Patriots beat my Rams all those years ago.

It would appear that Virgo Pete Carroll out-coached Capricorn Sean Payton. Yeah, well let's just see him win the Super Bowl this year...

I can't tell you I'm not disappointed. I hoped that the Saints would repeat this year. Forget about it. There will be a new champion in 2011.

On the other hand, I am laughing at the experts. I heard a heck of a lot about how the NFC West was the worst division in any sport. I heard a heck of a lot of slams on my Rams, asking how we lost to a paltry pussy football team like the Seahawks. Each time they declared the Seahawks to be the worst team ever in the history of the playoffs, how do you think that made Ram-fans feel? In a certain perverse way, it is funny to watch the Seahawks suck it up and stick one right back in their faces. I do enjoy a certain degree of malicious glee over this victory.

However, I am mostly disappointed for the city of New Orleans and the Saints fan. The Falcons better be ready. They are getting closer and closer to being the flag-bearer for the NFC. We'll see if the Pack can stop them.