It's a wretched and disgusting Super Bowl this year

Are you excited about this Super Bowl match-up?  If so, your from Boston or New York.  That's all.  Only this and nothing more.  There is nothing here for a West Coast guy in Los Angeles to be interested in.

Couldn't be worse if you ask me.  This exactly the match up we didn't need to see.  This is the worst of all possible combo scenarios given our four contestants.  Now we have to listen to endless bullshit about Bellichick getting a shot at redeeming his erstwhile undefeated season.  We have to listen to endless bullshit about the Giants proving that SB42 wasn't a fluke event.

In short, it is going to be absolutely horrendous 14 day period until we can get this goddamn fucking sonofabitch bastard whore season over with.  The NFL Network's viewership is going down by one DVR count.  ESPN's viewership is going down by one count.  I won't be tuning in for any of this.

I'm watching the FoodNetwork, BioHD, and ScienceHD.

I don't need to listen to any of this hype.  I am not interested in the narrative you are about to weave.  I do not need to listen Boston yelling at New York and New York yelling back again.  It's an All-East-Coast food-fight just made perfect for goddamn fucking ESPN.

To all of the Sports Writers of America:  The Super Bowl narrative you are about to weave absolutely sucks.  I'm talking about a raw-red stinker of a lousy sports story.  Fuck you in the ass... twice... hard... with no lube!

I just might skip the Super Bowl this year.  The last time I did that, it was Super Bowl XXIV.  That was a good one to skip, by the way.  Horrible game.  Worst ever.

All I can say is this:  The Giants better win this game.  You know you will never hear the end of the fluke talk if you don't.  If you double-down and jam the Patriots a second time, it will be quite glorious.  You will be able to give Boston the finger forever more.

I have to say, it was an utterly disgraceful win the Patriots got away with.  You know the story.  Everybody has reported on it.  If Lee Evans doesn't drop the game winning touchdown pass, the Ravens go to the Super Bowl.  If Billy Cundiff doesn't follow that immediately with a shanked field goal, we go into overtime.  What a disgraceful and ignominious way to back-door your way into the Super Bowl.  This is highly characteristic of Bellichick.

This wasn't Joseph's fault folks.  He played well enough to win.  He didn't lose this battle for you.

You better be ready for the Harbaugh Bowl II

I have been increasingly sickened by the hype leading up to the AFC & NFC Championship games.  The drivel logic, poppycock reasoning, and bullshit theory I am hearing these days is the purest examples of East Coast bias a-la ESPN and Bristol Connecticut that I have encountered in the past 5 or 6 years.  It is ferociously disgusting and a violent abomination to the eye and ear.

I take great solace in the fact that ya'all are about to have 10,000 pounds of egg on your face.  Not a quantum of solace but great solace.  Better hedge your bets, chumps.

The AFC Championship

Let us begin (in alphabetical order) with the AFC Championship game.  All the fools of football are utterly convinced that Baltimore Ravens don't have a chance in this game.  Why?  Because Tom Brady is better than Joe Flacco.  Believe me, your reasoning is just that simple.  It ain't any better than that.  When confronted by your simpleton-logic, you may attempt to improve on it a bit, or simply defend it, but this is your argument.  Only this and nothing more.  

Well what about the rest of the teams in question?  It doesn't matter, you say.  Brady is better than Flacco.  The Patriots will win.  This is essentially the same argument that was made about the Broncos and Steelers.  Roethlisberger is a clutch guy and much better than Tebow.  The Broncos have a 0.00000000000000% chance winning.  You saw where your logic got you, didn't you?  Still you have not take corrective action and mended your ways.  You have not discarded the super-simpleton theory you cleave to, have you?

You are forgetting that this is always a team sport, the ultimate teams sport, and very seldom a quarterback dual.  One QB does not defeat another.  One team defeats another.  If you don't think so, you are absolutely and completely wrong, point-blank period.

Only four facts need to be evaluated to understand why the Ravens are going to win this game:

1. The Ravens have the most elite defense in the NFL, point-blank period.  It doesn't matter what the bullshit yardage stats say.  Four of the NFL's top 25 players are concentrated on that unit.  They are the best defensive unit in football.
2. The Patriots do not have anything approaching an elite defense, and they don't have anything approaching a top 25 player either.
3. When the Ravens play an elite team, they rise to the occasion and win.  They defeated playoff teams like the 49ers, got two wins over the Texans, two over the Steelers, two over the Bengals.   This includes clutch-QB play from Joe Flacco, who brought them back in the final moments against the Steelers.  When they play an inferior and rebuilding squad, like the Chargers, they have a tendency to look past the opponent and lose.  I don't think they are looking past the Patriots.
4. When the Patriots play a playoff team, they mostly loose.  Consider back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Giants.  They were also had by the Bills.  They nearly lost to both the Cowboys and Redskins.  When it comes to beating playoff teams, they have beaten the Broncos and the Broncos.  That's it.  An 8-8 squad that wasn't even supposed to contend this year.   The Patriots are not a powerful team, no matter what Bristol Connecticut and ESPN would like you to believe. 

Since the Ravens are not talking much trash right now, I will do it for them.  

Tom Brady will be checking his prostate after every play in the early going of this game, just to make sure it still up in there.  That's because the Raven defense is going to be knocking it loose.  This will cease sometime during the second quarter because Brady will have a bird's-eye view of that prostate after T-Sizzle shoves his head up his ass with one violent thrust.

Say what you will about Tom Brady, but I don't think he can throw the football very accurately with his head shoved up his arse.

As far as I am concerned, the Patriots are the longest of the long-shots still left in this tournament.  This is the one team that doesn't have a chance.  This game features one heavy-weight and one rooty-poot.  In case you were wondering, the Patriots are the rooty-poot.

The NFC Championship Game

After witnessing the massacre of the Patriots, we can move on to a truly epic contest:  the Giants vs. the 49ers.  Everybody knows this going to be the game of the day.  This is going to be the nail-bitter and the big drama.   This is the one where both teams can win.  This is the heavy-weight fight.

In terms of record, the 49ers are clearly the better team.  On paper, the Giants are clearly the better team. Eli looks like the better QB.  However, Alex Smith is astonishing everybody.  Both have very violent defenses.  The 49ers are much higher ranked, but the Giants are peaking right now.

I think the 49ers win.  I'll tell you why.

Everyone is talking about how the Giants are peaking right now, but I will tell you the dirty little secret ESPN is keeping in the closet.  The 49ers are peaking right now also.  They have never played better than they did in there last game.  Further, they are the more consistent team.  Finally, they are at home.

I think this is going to be an epic contest.  We have to muddle through a poor AFC Championship game so we can get to a real contest.  I am looking forward to this one.

In conclusion, you better be ready for the Harbaugh Bowl.  It's going to happen.

The Catch III

Well, that was the best damn contest I have seen in a long time.  In case you missed it, the 49ers just defeated the Saints 36-32.  The game winning play was loaded with types and shadows of playoff victories past for the 49ers.

With 9 seconds left on the clock and the 49ers trailing 32-30, Alex Smith took a quick drop and nailed Vernon Davis over the middle, at the goal-line.  Davis was hit immediately, but held onto the football, falling forward into the endzone for the game-winning touchdown.

It looked almost exactly like the play Steve Young & Terrel Owens executed to defeat Brett Favre and the Packers once upon a time in the playoffs.  Vernon Davis came off the field crying, almost exactly as Terrel Owens did.  They called Young & Owns play "The Catch II".  This was named after the famous Joe Montana to Dwight Clark play that won the 1981/82 NFC Championship game for the 49ers.

If that is the case, then this Smith to Davis play should become known as "The Catch III".

By simply taking you through the winning play, I have short-changed the drama of the game.  34 points scored in the 4th quarter.  Four lead changes in the final four minutes.  Multiple 2-minute drives executed well by both QBs.  It was a struggle all the way. This was one hell of a battle.  I am sure we will be seeing it on the NFL Network this Monday night.  It's already a classic; an instant classic.  The fans are currently ranking this game a 96 on scale of 1 to 100.  That score may go up.

So the 49ers go on to the NFC Championship Game, presumably in Green Bay, but we better not count our chickens before they're hatched.  This game, in itself, was a shocking upset.  Most of us did not believe the 49ers could score enough to win.  A very similar doubt hangs over the Giants.  They may prove us wrong also.  If so, these 49ers will host the NFC Championship game at Candlestick next week.

For me the most amazing moment came before the 49ers first 2-minute drive.  My buddy Colin was sweating bullets, saying "I wish we had Tebow."  I told him, "Maybe it's better that you don't.  With four minutes to grind down, you need to run this drive slow."

The 49ers did not run slow.  The 49ers went down the field based on two big plays.  Alex Smith nailed Vernon Davis on the bomb.  Then, showing shades of the Zone-Read Spread-Option he and Tebow both ran in college, Alex Smith ran the QB Sweep to his left out an empty-backfield shotgun formation.  He went 28 yards for the touchdown.

What was that about Tim Tebow?  Let's remember, Alex Smith was doing the ZRSO thing before Tebow was.

What is this world coming too?  QB's running the football out of the spread for playoff winning scores in the NFL.  Dogs and cats living together in sin!  It must be the end of the world.  The Maya were right, weren't they?

Speaking of Calib Hanie...

How about that Virgo kid? A star was almost born, but not quite. Before B.J. Raji's interception return for a touchdown, I had visions of NFL GMs contacting the Bears inquiring about Caleb's availability. There may still be some of that waiting in the wings. The Seahawks have done stranger things.

He gave them quite a spark, and it was damn unlikely too. Of course, the Packer defense gave him short-shrift, but he made them pay for it. As it happens, Hanie finished 2-2: 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Still, he was far more effective than Cutler in this Championship game. He stepped up and answered the bell on a big stage. He wasn't overwhelmed and he didn't fold. That means something.

Would you deal Hanie if a fellow GM comes calling for him? My answer would be "hell no!" Knowing that Todd Collins could not get it done, I would release him immediately, and I would declare Hanie the 2nd stringer in the same breath. Knowing that Cutler is going in for... perhaps... a difficult surgery and intense rehab, I would give Hanie all the snaps in OTAs and mini-camp... presuming there is any such thing in 2011. Until Cutler returns, Hanie is the presumptive #1. Keep him around. Give him a promotion. Let him know he played his way to a reward.

Of course, if Dr. Andrews says no, and if this only a 4 week injury...

The Packers make good on the preseason predictions

A guy who makes pre-season predictions about the Super Bowl is on a fools errand. It is a rare thing indeed when we get these predictions right... or even half-right. Whenever it happens, it's amazing thing. The Packers were preseason darlings, and rightfully so, as it happens. We thought they were loaded. We had no idea just how loaded. They were loaded and some.

Do you know that there are 15 Packers on injured reserve? Some of these men are starters and some are backups. Some of the most notable include starting RB Ryan Grant and starting TE JerMichael Finley How this team made it to the Super Bowl with 15 men on injured reserve... Let's just say it beats the hell out of me. McCarthy has to be on the short-short list for NFL Coach of the year.

Many will spin this as the power of the franchise QB, and Rodgers does deserve some credit, but I say this is the power of team work. As coach George Allen said, 40 men together can't loose. You lose 15 to injured reserve and the other 25 must step up. They did. Look where it got them.

So I am actually going to make a Super Bowl XLV Prediction

As you know, I have had little or no confidence in predictions since the start of this tournament. This is a fluke year. It may even be the ultimate fluke year. Initially, I was not going to attempt a prediction in this season where predictability in the system has fallen to ZERO.

I thought better of it on Friday at work. I drew an NFC/AFC championship bracket on the big white board in our programmer's section of the office. I made my predictions. I was going to chose the Bears and the Jets, both underdogs on Las Vegas betting lines. I felt this was the righteous conclusion to the ultimate fluke year.

The Jets went on the board with ease, despite the fact that I was wearing a Kevin Greene Steeler jersey. [Kevin was initially my favorite player on the Rams, and he is now coaching the Blood Line for the Packers. He should be in the hall of fame.]

As I went to the board to write the Bears into the NFC bracket for Super Bowl XLV, a still small voice warned me not to do it. An invisible hand seemed to hold me back. I tried to write the Bears in again. Once again, my hand was stayed. I decided it was foolish to mess with the feelings of trepidation I had about picking the Bears. I figured I had been warned. I wrote in the Packers.

So there you have folks, my prediction: Packers vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLV. Is this a fitting end to the ultimate fluke year? I think so. You will have a pair of #6 seeds climbing to the summit, winning all their games on the road. The odds against that are pretty astronomical. This is a pretty damn good fluke, even though one of the two favorites will win (if this prediction is correct).

I would really rather chose the Bears. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz are are old Ram coaches. I would very much like to see them win the Super Bowl. It will make up for the horror of Super Bowl XXXVI... in some small measure. I will rejoice if you guys win it. Still, I just can't seem to make that pick.

Let's hope for some great games.

The correct ending to this fuke year

As you know, predictability in the NFL Playoff system has reached a point fairly close to ZERO. If every game were an upset, we would simply pick the team least likely to win under normal conditions. However, a few teams have won at home. A few higher seeds have taken down lower seeds. This greatly increases the noise in the system. The signal to noise ratio has almost bottomed out.

I am sure Las Vegas is awash in money. 2011 is already one hell of a good year for Vegas. Some poor benighted souls think Vegas only makes money if they pick the winners correctly. Not true. Perish the thought! Vegas makes money when more than 50% of the dollars wagered ride on a loosing proposition. This is a very different formula.

Speaking of putting money on a losing formula... Only a few stupid suckers put money down on the Jets yesterday. All the smart money was on the Patriots. This is why all the bookies in Vegas awoke this morning with happy Christmas smiles on their faces. They feel it is a great day to be alive and be an American. I'll tell you one thing: This is a great day to be alive and be an American if you are a heretic/apostate unbeliever in Jesus Bellichick.

But I digress... We're in trouble folks. Picking favorites in these conference championship games is going be a trecherous affair.

If we say that the best approach is to select by record, seed, and homefield advantage, the Bears play the Steelers in SB45. That is a dangerous pick in this year of the fluke. If we say that the worst possible approach is to chose by record and seed, the Packers play the Jets. Of course, this may yet happen in the year of the fluke. If we crosswire for the most powerful looking teams, we will probably chose the Packers and Steelers, in a battle of used-to-was dynasties in rather small markets.

Now if we chose for the most unlikely combo of teams possible, we will honor the year of the fluke, and pick the Bears vs Jets. Surely, this is a matchup that elitists like Colin Cowherd will utterly detest. These two teams have a total of two Lombardi trophies between them. They have done it, but they are two least storied franchises we have left. What mythological storylines of NFL Royalty and Nobility will the elitist tell in the two weeks leading up to the Bears v Jets?

Maybe they will declare that the meek have inherited the earth? You know the news guys are always praying for the big story. They are cheering for a good hype line.

On the other hand, New York will be battling Chicago, and that should generate plenty of ratings. The big city press machines are going to love that. In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you should tell the story of the rivalry between New York and Chicago... not just in sports, but all things Americana. You can start with Pizza and work up to Steakhouses.

Of course, Los Angeles cannot participate because we just don't have any football teams here. Tough shit.

Do we dare to pick the Bears v Jets...?