The Wonderlic test, revisited

As you know, the Wonderlic Cognitive Ability Test is a standardized intelligence test developed by an industrial psychologist named Eldon F. Wonderlic. It has been in use since the 1930s. An assortment of industries have used this test to gauge the potential of employees for positions and advancement. It is most famous today as the sole gauge of intelligence potential for NFL prospects invited to the annual combine.

You get 12 minutes to answer 50 questions. For each question you answer correctly, you score a single point. For each question you miss or fail to answer, you get zero points. The maximum score possible is 50, if you get them all right. The minimum score is zero (0), if you bolo every question. The objective is to place time pressure on a candidate and see how fast the individual in question can process data and a question and arrive at the correct conclusion. The faster you can process the data, understand the question, and arrive at the correct solution, the better your score should be. The higher your score, the more intelligent we presume you are.

Does this test matter to a football player? Many say the answer is yes. Many say that the significance of this test varies by position. Most focus on the quarterback position, declaring that the QB is the nerve center of the offense. This is the man who must process information lightning quick, understand the problem being posed to him by the defense, and make the right decision about where to put the football. Most agree that this is the one position where the Wonderlic score matters most.

A whole bunch of research has been done on the ultimate career outcomes of NFL Quarterbacks, given their Wonderlic scores. A lot of very interesting results have sprung out of that research. Let me give you a few examples:

1. The average score for a starting Quarterback in in the NFL 25.
2. It is difficult to reach the Super Bowl with a QB who scored less than 28.
3. Given two teams in the Super Bowl, the team whose quarterback has the highest Wonderlic almost always wins. This happens even in extremely unlikely circumstances such as Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning scored a 39, and Tom Brady scored a 33, respectively.

All of this brings me to the point I wanted to make in this blog. Aaron Rodgers scored 35 on his Wonderlic test. Ben Roethlisberger scored 25 on his Wonderlic test. Of course, the Packers won and the Steelers lost. It should be noted that Rodgers did outperform his counterpart by a considerable margin. Do you think he's smarter than Ben Roethlisberger? Do you think he outperformed Ben Roethlisberger because he is the smarter guy?

I think the answer is pretty cut and dried, Yes.

Many would also look at the issue of accuracy. As so many have observed, a passer's accuracy is of primary importance. If he can't put the football where he wants it to go, all the size, strength, speed, toughness and smartness in the world won't matter. A quarterback must be accurate.

It should be noted that Aaron Rodgers is a far more accurate passer than Ben Roethlisberger. Rodgers just might be the most accurate passer in the league right now. He can put a bullet through a momentary fracture in space-time before you have noticed it exists.

All of this brings me the second big point I want to make in this in this blog entry. You know, my Rams just happen to have a young quarterback who scored a 36 on his Wonderlic test last year. he also happens to be an extremely accurate passer. Most authorities say Sam is one of the most accurate passer in NCAA history. In a year or so, he just might be challenging Aaron Rodgers for the accuracy crown.

As many have correctly observed, the Packers are loaded. This may only be the first of a series of championships for them. They are set up for 3 or 4 great seasons in a row. They may well become the dynasty of this new decade.

I want to give a word of encouragement to my fellow Ram-fans. If we do what we have to do in this draft, and if we don't fuck it up, we just might be contending with these Packers sooner rather than later. In a few years, the NFC may come down to the Packers vs. Rams, and that could happen several times in a row.

What do we have to do to get there? Well, I'll tell you about that.

• We need an absolutely deadly receiver like A.J. Green
• We need an ultra-behemoth Guard, like Carl Nicks of the Saints
• We need an elephant linebacker of the tweener variety. We need a guy who is too runty to be a defensive end, and too big to be a linebacker. There have been scores of these dudes in NFL history, and they are always the most destructive defenders on the field, despite the fact that you can have them for bargain prices. Our last great elephant linebacker was Kevin Greene, now seen coaching Clay Matthews. Kevin was our 5th round selection in 1985. He was also my favorite player in the world for a long time. We need another guy like him.

I survived

I survived Gastric Bypass surgery. If you saw the massive modifications the doctors made to my system on Friday, I am sure you would be shocked that I am home already, and writing this blog entry. All in all I feel pretty good. Now it is just a matter of learning how to live again, beginning with learning how to drink enough water given a 2 ounce stomach.

I actually returned to my apartment home in time for the 1st quarter of the Super Bowl. Congratulations to the Packers. I am very happy that you won. I got my preference.

It should be noted that the NFC has now defeated the AFC in three of the past four Super Bowls. The NFC also destroyed AFC in the Pro Bowl this year. I think this should cinch the my case that the NFC must now be acknowledged as superior to the AFC.

I will not miss the "Never miss a Super Bowl Club"

I can't wait for the season to end this year. Let's finish this fucking 2 week stretch and get it over with. I never want to see the "Never Miss a Super Bowl Club" again.

I've commented on NFL sponsors many times before. My last adventure in this land of opportunity involved Pomplamoose, whom I grew fond of. Of course, I'm not fond this time. It would seem that Visa is intent upon driving us mad with a new form of Chinese water torture: They are going to keep hitting us with one goddamn commercial after another about four old geezers who have never missed a Super Bowl. The geezers have seen them all... from the stadium seats.

Don't get me wrong: This would have made a splendid 15 minutes piece on 60 minutes. Their story is quirky and interesting. Unfortunately, 60 Minutes declined to do a story on them. Instead, Visa decided to saturate our football time with commercial after commercial about them.

Of course, the objective is to convince you that you should go to the Super Bowl and finance it on Visa cards. Do you know how much a trip to the Super Bowl will tack on your Visa card? Don't be surprised if it ends up being $10,000, even if you are trying to be conservative. Ordinary working people don't go to the Super Bowl... ever... under any circumstances.

Many of the things they say about the event seem downright ludicrous to me. I think it is time to set aside mass-debt consumption and drink a little of the New York Yankee's famous reality potion again.

Do you know the origin and genesis point of the current labor strife between the NFL and the NFLPA? Neither do I, but there are many who claim they do. Rumor has it that the NFL commisioned a very expensive survey of 15,000 self-described rabid NFL fans. The study was economically stratified, racially representative, geographically dispersed, age-spaced, etc. Much to their shock and horror, the front office discovered that only approximately 2% of all NFL fans have ever seen an NFL football game live, in person, at the stadium. 98% of all NFL fans have never sat in the bleachers for an NFL game.

The top reason was total cost of the outing, and especially the cost of a ticket. Ordinary people cannot afford to see a game, period. Naturally, this does not seem like a healthy thing. The NFL bosses are said to be wonder how the overwhelming interest in the NFL can be maintained without fans experiencing that communion of the saints that takes place in the stands. Hence the fight over cost-capping and cost-controls.

I myself have seen one game. I watched my Rams play the Redskins in RFK stadium for the 1986/87 NFC Wildcard round. Sam Bradford had not been born yet. We lost that one. I only managed to see the game because someone had greased my dad with tickets. At the time he was working in diplomacy in Washington D.C. I have never seen a game--from the stands--since early 1987. Maybe he was crawling by then. One of the key reasons is total cost. Another is the fact that we just don't have any teams here in L.A.

Human jealousy being what it is, you can imagine that the "Never Miss a Super Bowl Club" is generally rubbing people the wrong way. Of course, Mr. Excitement is a perfect dick. He's missed babies being born, but he has no intention of ever missing a Super Bowl... ever... for any reason. He says this with a great degree of self-righteous indignation. Well, we can certainly see you have your priorities right Mr. Horses-ass. Congratulations on achieving the status of enlightened-being in this lifetime.

Does everyone want to go to the Super Bowl and be there? I think the answer is clear: Only if your team is playing and with a high degree of probability that they will win. I don't want to be there unless the Rams are playing. I wouldn't want to be there if the Rams were blown by 20 in the game. I am sure glad I wasn't there for SB36. I don't blame Adam Carrola for walking out of the Stadium and watching the game at the Hotel. I probably would have done the same thing. That was a devastating, spirit crushing loss that derailed us. Of course, one of the assholes in the "Never Miss a Super Bowl Club" claims that as one of his favorites. He's obviously from Boston.

My two cents about going to the games? I, personally, would rather see it at home. Traffic is a bitch. Parking is a bitch, and costs $35... or $990! Marching 2 miles from parking to the stadium is a bitch. Paying $250 per ticket is a bitch. Sitting in a stadium where everyone is smoking is a bitch. Paying $10-12 for a beer is a bitch. Not being able to see the replay is a bitch. Bitch, bitch, bitch. I think the experience is just better at home. I feel I would be missing on the premier analytical experience if I go to the stadium to see the game.

I understand the entire impetus towards luxury stadiums is to overcome some of these difficulties, but not others. Ticket prices and beer prices will go up as a result of all the stadium construction costs.

I will soon have much to say about the construction of a luxury stadium here in Los Angeles County. That subject has been heating up lately as if it were inside an industrial strength salamander grill.

In any event, I will be overjoyed when we no longer see the Visa commercials for the "Never Miss a Super Bowl" club.

I'm getting a bad feeling about Super Bowl XLV

I'm getting a bad feeling about this Super Bowl. I have the feeling the Steelers are going to do it for the 7th time. Why? Two words: Ben Roethlisberger. The guy is a past-master of stealing games in the final two minutes of play. I have said this over and over again on this blog and in other venues.

Big Ben hasn't done this once, twice or three times. He does this relentlessly, game in and game out, for several years now. Elway's astounding record for two-minute victory drives is going to be in considerable jeopardy if Roethlisberger stays in the league for another 6-8 years.

He is a clutch guy. Roethlisburger is certainly more of killer-clutch guy than Peyton Manning. I believe he is more clutch than Tom Brady. Michigan men may want to dispute that, but I think it is true. I also believe he is more clutch than Joe Montana. The only guy I rank ahead of Roethlisburger is John Elway. I put Roethlisburger in a tie with Roger Staubach. Only Elway is more clutch than Roethlisberger. Incidentally, Montana was not more clutch than Elway. He wasn't more clutch that Staubach either. Allegations to the contrary are pure mythological bullshit. I saw the totality of both their careers. I know.

Roethlisberger is just too damn clutch. I was reminded of this fact (once again) when I got home last night. The NFL Network was showing a replay of the 2009 meeting between the Packers and Steelers in Pittsburgh. How did it end? With a last-second touchdown pass from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace in the end zone. The Steelers stole that one.

Do I need to remind anybody of what Roethlisberger did to the Ravens in this playoff tournament?

The moral of this story is clear: If the game is close in the final moments, Roethlisberger will win the game for the Steelers. We don't expect most QBs in the league to complete the two-minute drive at the end of the game. Most can't. In Ben's case, we do expect him to complete the drive. At this point in NFL history, there is no worse feeling than having a 4 point lead on the Steelers with 1:34 left go, and Steelers in possession of the ball on their own 30. You are sitting on sharp nails if that is your present situation.

I was actually shocked in 2010 when the Jets prevented Roethlisberger from completing a two-minute comeback drive at the end of their regular season game. I thought Ben was going to do it. My instant reaction was "Damn! Rex is an amazing defensive mind! How did he pull that off?" In most cases, I would be shocked if the QB did pull it off. I would be pissed at the DC if his unit gave up the game-winning drive.

I would much rather see the Packers win the game. If the Steelers win their 7th, it would add greatly to my dismay in life. Still, if you let these guys hang around, they will beat you.

How can the Packers win? I'll tell you how. You must deal with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in precisely the way teams dealt with the young John Elway and the Broncos in the Super Bowl. You have to put them down hard and fast. You slam them right down on the turf and blow their brains out by three scores. You need to blow them out. You can't just beat them. You cannot allow the game to be close. You have to turn on the afterburner full-blast and never shut it down. You must maintain a 3 score lead at all times in the second half. In this situation, the two-minute drill only shortens the margin of victory.

The Patriots certainly blew out the Steelers in precisely this fashion. This is the blue-print for a Packer victory. You can't expect to beat them by four. You have to beat them by 17 or more.

Can this happen in SB XLV? I doubt it. If anyone has the firepower to blow the Steelers it is the Packers, but let's remember, that stellar Packer offense will be facing the #1 ranked scoring defense in the league. I doubt the Steelers will yield that many points. This one is for all the marbles. I doubt the Steelers will lay an egg as they did against the Patriots.

Memo to McCarthy: Open up the playbook. Hit them with the kitchen sink. Make every drive furious. Be aggressive as hell in your play-calling. Score throughout the entire game. Turn on the afterburners full-blast, and keep them on all-game long. Don't shut down the offense. No goose-egg quarters. Try to score on every drive and every play. Don't ever shut it down. You're guys need to chop wood all game long.

So I am actually going to make a Super Bowl XLV Prediction

As you know, I have had little or no confidence in predictions since the start of this tournament. This is a fluke year. It may even be the ultimate fluke year. Initially, I was not going to attempt a prediction in this season where predictability in the system has fallen to ZERO.

I thought better of it on Friday at work. I drew an NFC/AFC championship bracket on the big white board in our programmer's section of the office. I made my predictions. I was going to chose the Bears and the Jets, both underdogs on Las Vegas betting lines. I felt this was the righteous conclusion to the ultimate fluke year.

The Jets went on the board with ease, despite the fact that I was wearing a Kevin Greene Steeler jersey. [Kevin was initially my favorite player on the Rams, and he is now coaching the Blood Line for the Packers. He should be in the hall of fame.]

As I went to the board to write the Bears into the NFC bracket for Super Bowl XLV, a still small voice warned me not to do it. An invisible hand seemed to hold me back. I tried to write the Bears in again. Once again, my hand was stayed. I decided it was foolish to mess with the feelings of trepidation I had about picking the Bears. I figured I had been warned. I wrote in the Packers.

So there you have folks, my prediction: Packers vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLV. Is this a fitting end to the ultimate fluke year? I think so. You will have a pair of #6 seeds climbing to the summit, winning all their games on the road. The odds against that are pretty astronomical. This is a pretty damn good fluke, even though one of the two favorites will win (if this prediction is correct).

I would really rather chose the Bears. Lovie Smith and Mike Martz are are old Ram coaches. I would very much like to see them win the Super Bowl. It will make up for the horror of Super Bowl XXXVI... in some small measure. I will rejoice if you guys win it. Still, I just can't seem to make that pick.

Let's hope for some great games.

The correct ending to this fuke year

As you know, predictability in the NFL Playoff system has reached a point fairly close to ZERO. If every game were an upset, we would simply pick the team least likely to win under normal conditions. However, a few teams have won at home. A few higher seeds have taken down lower seeds. This greatly increases the noise in the system. The signal to noise ratio has almost bottomed out.

I am sure Las Vegas is awash in money. 2011 is already one hell of a good year for Vegas. Some poor benighted souls think Vegas only makes money if they pick the winners correctly. Not true. Perish the thought! Vegas makes money when more than 50% of the dollars wagered ride on a loosing proposition. This is a very different formula.

Speaking of putting money on a losing formula... Only a few stupid suckers put money down on the Jets yesterday. All the smart money was on the Patriots. This is why all the bookies in Vegas awoke this morning with happy Christmas smiles on their faces. They feel it is a great day to be alive and be an American. I'll tell you one thing: This is a great day to be alive and be an American if you are a heretic/apostate unbeliever in Jesus Bellichick.

But I digress... We're in trouble folks. Picking favorites in these conference championship games is going be a trecherous affair.

If we say that the best approach is to select by record, seed, and homefield advantage, the Bears play the Steelers in SB45. That is a dangerous pick in this year of the fluke. If we say that the worst possible approach is to chose by record and seed, the Packers play the Jets. Of course, this may yet happen in the year of the fluke. If we crosswire for the most powerful looking teams, we will probably chose the Packers and Steelers, in a battle of used-to-was dynasties in rather small markets.

Now if we chose for the most unlikely combo of teams possible, we will honor the year of the fluke, and pick the Bears vs Jets. Surely, this is a matchup that elitists like Colin Cowherd will utterly detest. These two teams have a total of two Lombardi trophies between them. They have done it, but they are two least storied franchises we have left. What mythological storylines of NFL Royalty and Nobility will the elitist tell in the two weeks leading up to the Bears v Jets?

Maybe they will declare that the meek have inherited the earth? You know the news guys are always praying for the big story. They are cheering for a good hype line.

On the other hand, New York will be battling Chicago, and that should generate plenty of ratings. The big city press machines are going to love that. In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you should tell the story of the rivalry between New York and Chicago... not just in sports, but all things Americana. You can start with Pizza and work up to Steakhouses.

Of course, Los Angeles cannot participate because we just don't have any football teams here. Tough shit.

Do we dare to pick the Bears v Jets...?