The four teams in the AFC that won’t play in Super Bowl XLVI

Introduction

So, rather than focusing on the lockout, which began last night, I thought I would have a little fun this morning by sticking my thumb in the eye of the analysts at ESPN and the NFL Network. Why do a thing like that? Because they are a bunch of lazy bastards who always do the easy and non-controversial thing when making predictions about the up-coming season.

This leads to all kinds of error, and a complete lack of awareness of the tremendous changes underway in every off season. Without further Ado, here are the four teams that will not contend for the title in 2011… presuming we have a season in 2011.

The San Diego Chargers

I once again heard voices on the radio and the HDTV flogging the notion that Chargers are an Uber-tallented team that is long over-due for a Super Bowl victory. Don’t make me laugh. That ship sailed years ago. Forget about it.

What are you saying, Dave? Are you saying the Chargers are not an uber-tallented team, and they aren’t over due? Yep, you’re fuckin’a right that’s what I am saying. Why? How can you say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? How can I say that? You gotta be fucking kidding me? How can I say that?

· Because it isn’t fucking 2006 anymore, bitch. Get over it. Get some news updates about the roster and the coaching staff, will you please?

· Marty Schottenheimer is not the head coach of the Chargers. Norv Turner is the head coach.

· The Chargers don’t have L.T. anymore

· The Chargers don’t have Lights-Out Merriman anymore

· Soon, they won’t have Vincent Jackson

· GM A.J. Smith is the epicenter of some very ugly labor strife

Furthermore, I still have two words that categorically prove the Chargers cannot win the Super Bowl in this epoch: Norv Turner. Just in case you haven’t noticed yet, Norv sucks as a head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, and a terrible head coach.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

You know the statistical law: The looser of the Super Bowl doesn’t even make the playoffs the year after. This is one of the greatest, tried and true trends in professional football. Even the 16-0 pseudo-undefeated Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2008.

Of course, this did not prevent ESPN from crowing those Patriots the Super Bowl champions in 2008 and 2009. Likewise, I am sure the Steelers will be a big favorite of the pundits in 2011. Nope, you’re all wet. The Steelers will not make the playoffs in 2011… provided there is a 2011.

The New England Patriots

I am sure the crew in Bristol is going into mega-conniption fits, pealing backflips and having babies as they read this line. Tough shit. Read it and weep, bitches.

How can you say that, Dave? Because it isn’t the first half of the 2000s anymore, that’s how I can say it. If you actually watched pro-football games instead of just looking at box-scores, standings and crunching a few numbers, you might actually notice that this Patriot team is nowhere (and I mean nowhere) near the quality of the championship teams that once dwelt there. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball.

But you don’t actually watch the games and/or notice how the teams play, do you? You just crunch numbers right? I watch the games, I crunch numbers, and I filter out bullshit hype. I am far better than you are.

Once upon a time, a long time ago, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. The last of those came some 6 years ago. This is an eternity in Pro-Football time. The team that plays in New England is no longer that team which won those Super Bowls. They may have the same coach. They may have the same QB. They are not the same team, period point-blank, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Do not call them a dynasty. Do not tell me this is a franchise with Super Bowl experience. Do not tell me that the coach and the QB are enough. Do not tell me Bellichick is going to reload in this year’s draft. The dynasty officially ended when the Commish handed the precious to the New York Giants.

It is now absolutely and completely over. The end was signed and sealed with the last three playoff tournament results. They failed to qualify in 2008. They made instant and embarrassing playoff exits in the first round in both 2009 an 2010.

The end. Turn the page. Close the book.

The Indianapolis Colts

Of all my predictions, this is the most dangerous one. Of all the teams picked to be a non-factor, this is the team most likely to be a factor. However, with that said, I think we have pretty good reason to believe that the party is in decline in Indi.

Why do I say that? As we all saw, the Colts suffered two major cracks in their juggernaut last season. Payton Manning was definitely not himself during major portions of the season. We saw a lot of interceptions and miscues that we have not seen from him since his rookie campaign. Furthermore, we saw quite substantial cracks in their defense.

Much blame was laid on injuries. Most voices chanted that pious cant. There was a small, but vocal minority that said it wasn’t so. Peyton had his chief receiver, Reggie Wayne, through the entire year. President Bill Polian laid the blame squarely on the offensive line, declaring that they just weren’t protecting Peyton. Although the line could use some upgrades, I did not notice an incredible number of sacks or pressures in the games I watched, or the compiled statistics.

We need to call a spade a spade: Manning had a bad year. We hope he doesn’t have two. We don’t know whether he will or not. He seems to be fairly deeply involved in the current labor unrest, and he refused to sign his tender. We don’t really know what he is up to in all this, but one thing is for sure: he can’t be allocating as much time as he usually does to off-season preparation.

But on to the defense… As Ray Lewis has correctly said, if you took Peyton away from the Colts, they would be a sub-average football team. I happen to believe Ray was speaking of the Colts defense. It seems that this unit has been perpetually suspect for 6 or 7 years now. Tony Dungy did everything he could to hold that unit together, but it was a high maintenance machine: It kept breaking down, especially in key moments.

I personally doubt that Jim Caldwell has what it takes to prop up the sagging Colt defense. I think this is the most important reason to expect a drop-off in the Colts’ regular season performance this year.

Farmer's Field, Downtown Los Angeles

We're less than 48 hours away from my surgery, so I don't have much time to pen a lengthy analysis of what just happened today. However, I did want to acknowledge what took place.

An assortment of dignitaries were on hand today in Downtown Los Angeles for a formal announcement that Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG) was officially planning a billion dollar facility to be located adjacent to the Staples Center and L.A. Live! The explicit objective is to acquire one or two NFL franchises. The stadium will be titled Farmers' Field. Farmers insurance will pay $700 million plus for the naming rights if there is one NFL team in residence. They will pay close to $950 million if there are two NFL teams in residence.

Two teams are considered a serious possibility at this point, and there is a consensus that neither will be the Vikings or the Jaguars. The odds-on money favorites are the Chargers and the Rams.

Both Tim Leiweke and Casey Wasserman were available for extensive radio interviews after the fact. Both claim that the NFL is completely in favor of putting one or two teams in the city of Los Angeles, and would like to do so before Super Bowl 50 so that 50th anniversary Super Bowl can be played where it all got started.

The most important thing was the galvanic reaction that happened on 570 AM 710 AM and 1090 AM. The first two stations the Fox Sports and ESPN affiliates here in Los Angeles. 1090 is an independent sports station, and the voice of San Diego.

As you know, I have been bullish on the return of the Rams ever since Georgia died. I have smelt a return for multiple reasons, the most important reason being Stan Kroenke's eternal participation in the L.A. stadium committee and the rapid response by local entrepreneurs to Georgia's death.

However, I was just about the only one back in 2008-2009. At that time, no serious sports caster on TV or Radio in our local market believed that the NFL was returning to the Southland in the foreseeable future. This attitude began to change gradually as evidence accumulated. Still, I would say the official position of the Los Angeles jock-o-ratti was one of skepticism.

Now the situation has officially changed. The sports casters in this region are now officially fired up, and they are rallying the people. I think there is now a great sense of expectancy and excitement about what is happening.

On the other hand, the attitude of the San Diego media is grim, serious, and sober. They are now officially worried that the Chargers will split town unless something is done very, very, very soon to break ground on a new state-of-the-art facility.

Probably the most amazing thing I heard said during the entire day was this: Super Bowl XXXII was played in Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego on January 25, 1998. Since then, there has not been a Super Bowl in California. There won't be either.

All of the facilities in California are now officially 3rd rate out-dated and out-moded scrap heaps. Candlestick has long been considered the worst facility in the league. Right behind it is the decrepit Oakland County Coliseum. Both the Rose Bowl and the Coliseum in Los Angeles are great historical landmarks, but they are far from the first rate facilities in this era of Cowboy Stadium.

If AEG goes through with this construction project, Los Angeles will have the greatest sports facility west of Dallas. That is exciting as all get out.

There's nothing wrong with the Chargers

"There's nothing wrong with the Chargers", said Jamie Dukes recently. "They lost that playoff game because Nate Kaeding missed a bunch of field goals."

"And Nate Kaeding is an All-Pro kicker, so he's not going to do that again", added Tom Waddle.

Oh Bouy... I don't like slagging Jamie Dukes. He's one of my favorite guys, but when he is off-course, he's really way off.

There are a couple of legendary literary figures that came to mind when I heard these two guys discuss the Chargers.

One is Pollyanna, who likes to play "The Glad Game", a cheery and optimistic game orphans play. It consists of finding something to be happy and grateful for in every situation no matter how bleak.

The other is the great Dr. Pangloss found Voltaire's Candide. Pangloss likes to quote Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz "all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds." Leibniz said that when he wasn't busy inventing infinitesimal Calculus and binary mathematics (the basis of all computers today). Dr.Pangloss has some rose colored glasses, which means everything's coming up roses. I can hear Ethel Merman belting it out now.

So here is Dr. Pangloss (Jamie Dukes) and Pollyanna (Waddle) tell us that there is nothing wrong with the Chargers.

Now hear this: Fuck that shit! There is plenty wrong. Let us count the ways.

1. Shawne Merriman never really recovered from his knee surgery, and the lack of steroids in his game is really showing. When it comes to steroids you either have it, or you've had it.
2. You have 6 soon-to-be haircut restricted free agents who are going to pissed off and disgruntled with the unhappy contracts they've been forced into.
3. L.T. just got released.
4. Even with Ryan Matthews, a very good prospect, I am not sure that Chargers will have a running game.
5. I am fairly certain that Charger O-Line is not what it used to be. I don't know that they can run-block the way they used to, even if Norv will commit to the running game, which I doubt he will
6. The Chargers just cut their starting Nose Tackle Jaamal Williams. I once believed that they had a replacement. Now I strongly doubt that.
7. They just threw Antonio Cromartie out the door for siring 7 bastard children and other disasters. That would be wonderful, except for the fact that I don't think they have a replacement on hand. No, Nathan Vasher doesn't get it done.
8. And then we still have Norv... Jamie may say that Norv is a great coach, but it is only true at the OC level. This guy has never been a solid head coach.

There's nothing wrong with the Chargers...? There's nothing wrong with the Chargers?!?!? What the fuck do you mean that there is nothing with the Chargers?!?!?!?

Folks, I still have every reason to bet the Chargers will win the AFC West in 2010. The division is otherwise vacant. They will win by default. They will probably scratch together a 10-6 record. They will also be one-and-done, a quick-out, in the playoffs.

Last year, a better Charger team could not overcome an inferior Raven team, and they barely beat the Bengals 27-24. This year an inferior Charger team may be up against a superior Bengal team in the first round. I don't like 'dem odds. If by some miracle they win that game, they should get smacked up like little bitches by the Ravens.

The Chargers will not sniff the Super Bowl in Dallas. They were overdue two years ago. They are not overdue now. The window has now closed.

Football in Los Angeles 2011...?

I'll give you a short answer and I'll give you a long answer. Short: I seriously doubt it. Long: Here we go.

Has anyone actually done a Google search for the following key words vis-a-vis the Roski Stadium project in the City of Industry?

• Ground breaking
• Ground breaking cerimony
• Construction starts
• Completion date
• Progress report
• Start Date
• Finish Date

I can tell you that I have. What did I find? Diddily squat. That's what I found. Do you want to know why? Because Ed Roski has not broken ground on the new Stadium yet. He has stated quitely, but in news print, that he will not begin construction until he has 1 NFL team inked to come play. Read about it here, my friends. This is a smart financial move, but this makes for hell in politics.

Consider the following key points:

• Roski would like a team to commit to come play football in a stadium not yet in construction 2011.
• He won't break ground until you sign.
• If he breaks ground in March or April of 2010, will the stadium be finished by August of 2011?
• If you commit now under the cover of a non-disclosure agreement, and Roski breaks ground, everybody knows that one of the 32 NFL teams committed to play in Los Angeles.
• Every investigative reporter in the Nation is going to beg, borrow, steal, bribe, and kill to find out just which team that was.
• If the NDA is broken before the 2010 season starts, or ends, your ticket sales in your present home go to shit.

This is a recipie for a late launch of the project. Key men are going to waiver because this is a monumentally huge decision. If the team is the Rams, you need to wait until their ownership situation is resolved. If the team is the Chargers, expect perturbations.

In either case, I do not believe that ground will be broken and the project finished in time for 2011. Don't expect football back in Los Angeles until 2012. So say I.

I want you to know, I say all this as a citizen of Los Angeles, and a staunch supporter of Ed Roski Jr. I just want you to know that I think his time-table is far to aggressive and unrealistic. I would love it if he were right, but I do not think he is. I think we need a little touch of realism mixed with excitement.

The Charger fans are choking and puking on Brees's Super Bowl ring

So, I just got back from lunch a few moments ago. Of course, I tuned into sports talk radio as I drove, I was interested in seeing what was up on this fine day. 570 AM was doing a review of the Super Bowl commercials. No need to listen to that. 710 AM had an NBA interview scheduled for this moment. No need to listen to that. I dialed in the Chargers' flagship station at 1090 AM, and I found the radio host in full-siege mode.

The host was under attack, and the stress level in his voice was palpable. Fans in San Diego are vomiting and retching and cursing the football gods with venom this morning. You see, they never should have let Drew Brees go. This was hilarious for me. In all my razor sharp focus on SB44 itself, I had never stopped to consider just what it might mean to San Diego if the Brees-lead Saints won the Lombardi. Life gives you these little surprises sometimes.

I would have thought the Charger fans might be satisfied with Philip Rivers. He is one of the top-ranked passers, and one of the most intellectual QBs in the game today. Without directly attacking Rivers, the fans insisted that they would have won the Super Bowl in 2006 if they had just kept Brees. They insisted that this proven winner would have gotten them a couple by now.

It is an interesting theory. Bress is a proven winner who resurrected both teams he has played for. But now the Charger fans are insisting that they are fans of a cursed franchise. They cannot win the Super Bowl so long as Norv Turner and A.J. Smith remain in command of this franchise. Kill them both! Kill them all! Off with their heads! So say the Charger fans. They seem convinced now that they let go of the key piece of their Super Bowl puzzle 4 years ago, and this is why they have choked ever since.

Nah, I just think they have had two choker coaches; that's all. Marty Schottenheimer is well know for his advanced expertise & doctrine of choking. Norv is getting to that level also; he will be there soon.

Maybe you should look for a better coach.