Game 14 2009

All 32 teams in the NFL played their 14th game this week. It was a hard week for my anointed teams. As you recall I picked the following teams in the preseason:

1. Colts (won--barely)
2. Dolphins (lost to the Titans)
3. Saints (lost to the Cowboys)
4. Packers (lost to the Steelers)

This wasn't the end of the struggles. The Cardinals had to fight to beat the Lions. It looked like they were going to crush them early, but then the Lions came back. The Vikings, a team I have never bandwaggoned with in 2009, dropped an ugly stinker in Carolina. Of the solid playoff teams, only the Eagles made a solid effort and won well.

Worst of all, my Rams got up on their hind legs and fought the good fight against the Texans, but they failed to win. Maybe my Rams were offended by my suggestion that they have packed it in for the year. They decided to fight before finally packing it in. Once again, I am extremely pleased with our outstanding defense. Once again, I am utterly horrified by our pathetic offense, and our inability to score points. We need a serious offensive overhaul, just like the one we did between 1998 and 1999.

You could make an argument that this weekend was only kind to 3 playoff teams:

1. The Chargers (they won, and the Broncos lost)
2. The Cardinals (they won, and the 49ers lost)
3. The Colts (they won again, and they are the only undefeated team in the league)

I would tend to agree with Jamie Dukes, regarding the New Orleans Saints: This loss is a blessing in disguise. The Saints have been winning thrillers lately, instead of delivering all-out beat-downs, the way they once were. Now they took a beating at the hands of Dallas. I do agree with the notion that this will give them a renewed and refreshed focus in practice. They now know that they are not immortals. They know they can be beaten They know they need to improve during these two weeks before entering the playoffs.

A friend of mine, who is a 49er fan expressed a similar thought when he said: "I agree with Bill Walsh's philosophy: Let them loose 1 and only 1." This can have a focal effect on a championship caliber team.

Also, the loss really didn't hurt the Saints at all. The Vikings turned right around and dropped an ugly game to the Panthers. One more victory locks up home-field advantage through the NFC tournament.

Hollywood's top 25 sexiest women of all time

Recently, I was channel surfing and came across an absolutely preposterous & absurd program called "Hollywood's Top 25 Sexist Women of All-Time". Why was it absurd? The following grand dames of Hollywood were all listed outside the Top 12:

1. Lauren Bacall
2. Eva Gardner
3. Katherine Hepburn
4. Ingrid Bergman
5. Grace Kelly
   

At the same time, the following contemporary dames were ranked inside the top 10:

1. Angelina Jollie #2
2. Halley Berry #3
3. Julia Roberts #5
4. Jessica Alba #8
5. Michelle Pfifer
   

If you have seen a dozen photos of these women, let alone film, you have to laugh out loud. I want to go on the record and tell you that Angelina Jollie can't carry the jockstrap on any of the old dames on the upper list. There is no woman in Hollywood today who can compare to any of the classic stars I listed above. If there was even one Lauren Bacall--let alone an Eva Gardner--in Hollywood today, L.A. County would be crushed by a billion stalkers.

It is a total wipe-out in favor of the classics. Everybody knows that one of the most lamentable aspects of Hollywood in the past 20 or 30 years is that it has not produced the kind of absolute bombshells we saw in the 30s-50s. They haven't even gotten close.

Before you call me curmudgeon, understand I that I was born in 1966. All of these classic dames of Hollywood were already in their 50s and 60s by the time I was 10 years old. Most were dead of old age by the time I turned 30. These were not the contemporary stars I grew up with. No, Pfifer, Bullock, and Roberts were. I always knew they couldn't hang with the classics.

So why did TV Guide produce such a preposterous list? How could these gurus think or utter such nonsense, much less broadcast it on their own network? TV Guide is part of the Hollywood marketing force. They make money by marketing for Hollywood. As Hollywood makes money, they make money. They have a vested interest in telling you that the stars today are greater than the stars of yesteryear. Right now is the moment. Hollywood has never been better than it is today. The women today are much hotter than the women of the past. Why? Because we need to recoup our investment dollars on recent production right now, that's why!

That's like arguing that Michael Jackson was innocent of child molestation because you would like to make money selling his next album. There are about 10,000 logical fallacies in there.

When you think about it, tho, how much different is the policy of the NFL Marketing department on Park Avenue? I personally thought it was absurd when marketing forces inside the NFL began to propound that Joe Montana was better than Johnny U. So did Dan Fouts. Now that Joe is fading into the distant fog of the past, there is now a new drum-beat coming out of Park Avenue. Peyton Manning is the greatest QB of all time. This will accelerate dramatically if the Colts win SB44, and if Manning has a big day.

Now I happen to think Manning is a lot better than Montana, and I have seen both of their careers in their entirety. I am not sure Manning is better than Unitas. I think Manning would go easy on that as well. In fact he did precisely that recently when he busted up a bunch of Unitas's records.

Just like Hollywood, the NFL has a vested interest in telling you that the greats today are the greatest greats that ever played. The stars of today would crush the stars of yesteryear. This is the magical moment when things have never been better. Ergo, you should pay diligent attention to the present moment, and appreciate this greatness.

While I am all in favor of living in the present moment, but be careful of the marketing crap. There is a great deal of bullshit in the marketing. Buyer beware!

The Upset Special of the Week: Panthers over Patriots

The Carolina Panthers will defeat the Patriots for the following reasons:

1. The one-man turnover machine Del Homme has been benched with injuries
2. There are divisions inside the Patriots locker room
3. Tom Brady is not playing well.
4. Tom Brady just got a new baby at home, ergo, he has not been sleeping well at all.

I am sure everybody in Bristol is calling me a heretic, an apostate and an antichrist. You wait and see, bitches.

Why the Saints won't be stopped shy

In the 2008 NFL season, the top three defenses were, in order:

1. Steelers
2. Ravens
3. Eagles

None of those were legendary defenses. All three of those defenses have fallen down the board in 2009. In week 12 of 2009, the top 5 defenses are:

1. Packers 281
2. Jets 283.9
3. Steelers 288.4
4. Giants 290.5
5. Broncos 295.0

Shocking isn't it? I would never have guessed that the NFL.com would tell me that the Packers are #1 in total defense. Although the Jets have been good defensively... well... you know the rest of the story. I thought the Steelers would be a lot lower than #3. It should be noted that this is the yardage list. That is not very significant. As Dick Vermeil used to say: This game is about scoring points. Points are how you win and loose the game. If we look at the points allowed list, what does that look like?

1. Bengals 174 (15.8)
2. Cowboys 182 (16.5)
3. Colts 184 (16.7)
4. Ravens 188 (17.1)
5. Broncos 189 (17.2)

On a quick side track: Did you notice that the Patriots are not found in either of these groups? Neither is Minnesota.

A close look at this figures shows nothing all that impressive. We do not have any legendary defenses in the NFL this 2009 season. Truth be told, these figures are considerably worse than they where they were last season. The top yardage figures are all much higher than normal (lower is better). The top defenses by points are considerably higher than single figures (lower is better). All of the teams with top statistical defenses have proven beatable, except for the Colts. Several will not make the playoffs (pick 2 from the Giants, Packers, Jets, Broncos). The Eagles, Jets, and Giants have already been smashed by the Saints.

To stop the Saints you must stop an offense that is on pace to beat the Patriots' scoring record of 2007. That isn't going to be easy. The Patriots themselves gave it a try and, well... you know... Who you gonna call? The Ghost Busters? If you pay attention to the plain figures, it would appear that the Dallas Cowboys would be the best candidate to upset the Saints, but Dallas gives up a lot of yards, especially through the air. They are number 21 again the pass by yardage. They are #14 in total yardage. That is a mismatch.

How about the most likely candidate? The Minnesota Vikings? The Vikings are #8 in total yardage, allowing 303 per game. They are #8 in total points allowed with 18.5. They are #1 in sacks, but they are #19 against the pass. #19 against the pass? That constitutes a mismatch. Riddle me this Batman: How do you rank #1 in sacks and #19 against the pass? The answer is easy: Your line is great and your secondary sucks. This is the truth about about the Vikings defense. If my secondary sucks, I really wouldn't look forward to a match with the Saints. If the DL weren't playing as well as they are, the Vikings would be #30 against the pass.

It should be noted that the Vikings played the Rams in the 1999 tournament. They were #30 against the pass. We were #1 in all passing categories. We smashed them. The 3rd quarter was a massacre. Something similar might happen in the Super Dome in 2009.

This is all a very long winded, reasoned out way of saying that there is nobody out there in the NFC who is going to stop the Saints from making it to the Super Bowl, presuming nothing drastic happens. Drastic is defined as the loss of Drew Brees or Darren Sharper. It will take a legendary defense to stop these guys. That defense does not exist in the year 2009.

In the year 2010, watch out for the Rams. We will have the next legendary defense. Coach Spags has already done magical things with our very slim crew. Just give him this off-season to recruit a few free agents from the Giants.

I got a feeling New Orleans is going to the Super Bowl

What is so messy about the NFC playoff picture?

If there was anything messy about the NFC playoff picture it less so today. Let's check on the standings:

In the South, New Orleans now holds a 5 game lead over their next closest competitor. The Saints get week 12 off. They will have 2 weeks to prep for the New England Patriots, who have to come down to the Super Dome. Boy is that Dome going to be rockin'! The Saints could mathematically clinch their division with a huge victory over the Patriots. This game would show they are more than worthy to take on the Colts in the Super Bowl.

In the North, the #2 seed Vikings continue to hold a 3 game lead with just 6 games remaining. It will take them longer than the Saints to clinch, but not much longer.

In the West, the Cardinals just improved their lead to 3 games over the 4-6 49ers. Don't sweat the injury to Kurt Warner. He looked fine. They just didn't want to risk him. The Cards could be clinching the West pretty soon. Maybe as soon as 3 weeks.

This leaves us with the Cowboys, who maintain the shortest lead in the bunch: Just 1 game. They also have the Giants and the Eagles to contend with. Expect both the G-Men and Eagles to win those wildcard births. Green Bay continues to sputter.

There's nothing messy about the NFC Playoff picture

So I just heard a report on the NFL network that my caused my skin to crawl. Tom Waddle said that the NFC playoff picture is extremely messy. Come again? Repeat that please?

Let's see, Arizona holds a 2 game lead on the 49ers in the West and they are about to play my Rams. Nothing messy their. Cardinals are in control in the West.

New Orleans has a 4 game lead in the South. There is nothing messy about that. The question is how soon will they clinch.

Minnesota holds a 3 game lead in the North. Can anybody tell me why that is messy?

Dallas holds a 1 game lead in the East. Now, the East is somewhat questionable because of the extreme inconsistency of the citizens who dwell their. I figure somebody has to win this division. I still reckon Dallas is the best of the breed, and they also happen to hold a 1 game lead. Not too terribly messy.

Now the two wildcard slots... heheheh... well that is totally unclear. However, let me pose this question to you: When was the last time you saw Wildcards decided by midseason? Maybe 1986 when the Giants finished 14-2 and the Redskins were 13-3. Even then, the 2nd Wildcard was not decided until my Rams took it.

There is no reason to complain about the NFC playoff picture. It is a hell of a lot more clear cut now than it was last season.

A few last thoughts about week 10 of the NFL season

Steven Young made a great point about week 10 of the 2009 NFL season right after Monday Night Football. "Thank God for the Colts and Patriots, otherwise this would have been an absolutely terrible weekend of football."

No shit! As Young stated, the weekend got underway with a pretty dreadful game between two incompetent teams in the 49ers and Bears. It ended with a dreadful mismatch between the Ravens and Browns. The Ravens should have buried the Browns deep and quick. It did not happen. The Ravens played pretty poor football. They did just enough to win. No mas. All night long there were only a few topics of discussion:

1. How deep is a disaster in progress in Cleveland?
2. Why are the Ravens, a supposedly good team, under performing so badly?
3. Man this game is terrible!!!!
4. Man wasn't that Patriots @ Colts game incredible last night?!?!?

After MNF, they took five minutes to revile the disaster in Cleveland, then it was off to Indianapolis for more passionate discourse about that instant classic.

I wonder how Steve Young views the Saints @ Rams? In all seriousness, I am just curious to know. Was that disastrously poor football, typical of the entire weekend? Was that just a great team in funk because they looked past an 'easy' opponent? Was that a game where the Rams got up on their hind legs and demonstrated that we are actually better than the Browns of this world? Was it some of all of the above? What happened in St. Louis?

If you compare and constrast the performance of the Ravens and the Saints, then compare and contrast the performance of the Rams & the Browns, I think you will have your answer. The Saints were vastly superior to the Ravens this weekend. The Rams were vastly superior to the Browns this weekend. That may not be saying a tremendous amount in either case, but the Saints @ Rams was a hell of a lot better football game then what we saw on MFN.

I myself am wondering if the Rams did enough in this game against--arguably--the best team in pro football to gain the confidence necessary to go on winning streak against some of the weaker opponents we have left on our schedule.

We have Arizona next. That will be a tough game. Then we have Seattle. We need to beat them. Then we have Chicago. That is a winable game. Then we have the Titans. That will be tough. A few weeks ago, that looked pretty good. Not now. Also, the Titans hate us for beating them in the Super Bowl. They always get up their dander for the Rams. Next Texas, and then the Cardinals again. Then we close with San Francisco.

I think we should close the season with at least 4 victories. That should put us out of the top 5 in the draft. Perhaps that is a good thing. I don't like the top ranked QBs in this draft. Let them go high.

Weakness and Power rankings

So I have noted that everybody finally agrees with me that the Saints are #1 and the Colts are #2. I've been saying this for a while now. Without further ado, here is my list of worst and the best teams in the league.

The Bottom Quarter

1. Tampa Bay

2. Cleveland

3. Detroit

4. St. Louis

5. Tenessee

6. Kansas City

7. Oakland Raiders

8. Washington Redskins

The Top Quarter

1. Saints

2. Colts

3. Minnesosta

4. Cincinnati

5. Denver

6. Pittsburgh

7. New England

8. Dallas

A few thoughts on the eve of the apocalyse

The Rams are going to play the Colts on Sunday. Full stop. Most Ram fans stopped reading right there. We just want to forget that this weekend is about to happen. It hasn't happened yet, but we want to forget about it already.

In all seriousness folks, I would love to give some sort of Knute Rockne speech, fire up the boys, and watch them win, but you know and I know that this is a dreadful mismatch. We know that the transitive property of equality does not apply to football teams, but follow this reasoning:

1. The Seahawks shutdown and embarressed us 28-0
2. The Seahawks shutout and embarressed the Jags 41-0
3. The Colts blasted the Seahawks 34-17 in a score that did not reflect how badly the Colts trashed them. The Colts were playing Checkers by themselves. They made any move they wanted when they wanted.
4. The Colts beat the Jags 14-12 in a strange one I can't explain.
5. The Colts made the Cardinals--who are the class of our division--look pretty bad.
6. The Cardinals also made the Seahawks look pretty bad
7. We have not played the Cardinals, but they have made us look pretty bad the last several times we've played them

I have enough points of common data to know that the Colts are schmearing teams we loose to. Everybody knows that Colts are the class of the AFC, and one of the two leading contenders for the Super Bowl. We are not contenders for the crown. We are contenders for the #1 pick again.

It doesn't take a Las Vegas handicapper to figure out that this one is going to get real ugly real quick.

Now flukes do happen. Teams do accidentally take the weekend off when they are supposed to play. Great teams sometimes overlook weak competition. You see sleepwalkers on occasions. I doubt that this is going to happen, but it is the only hope that the Rams have. Otherwise, the Colts are going to Schmear us.

Even if this were our only victory of the year, wouldn't it be grand if we beat the Colts. All the Colts fans just said "FUCK NO!"

Thoughts before a few great NFL matchups this weekend

If you have done any prep for week 4 of the NFL season, you must have noticed two things:

1. Most of the matchups are poor this week.
2. A few of the matchups are pretty spectacular

This weekend will signify the 25% competition mark in the 2009 NFL season. We have already had plenty of surprises. We have already had plenty of disappointments. They are already playing "Contender or Pretender" on the NFL Network. No doubt we will see this on the Fox and CBS pre-game shows also.

So which games are poor and which games are good? First the bad matchups:

1. Detroit at Chicago
2. Cincinnati at Cleveland
3. Oakland at Houston
4. Seattle at Indianapolis
5. Tennessee at Jacksonville
6. NY Giants at Kansas City
7. Tampa Bay at Washington
8. St. Louis at San Francisco

This means that fully 50% of the games on the board are not good games. Pitifully, most of those games are stacked up in the morning hours on the West Coast. That means last night was the night to go out and party. So which games are good?

1. Baltimore at New England
2. Buffalo at Miami (Questionable Call)
3. NY Jets at New Orleans
4. Dallas at Denver
5. San Diego at Pittsburgh
6. Green Bay at Minnesota

Regrettably, Baltimore vs New England is the only watchable game in the AM hours today. The NFL Network knows it. The spent much of this week hyping that matchup. Oddly, they continued to hype the Patriots as the dynasty of this moment, a move which is sure to loose them credibility in the eyes of football scholars around the country. They also documented the strange decline in the Ravens' defense and the massive rise of their offense.

To promote this one-and-only matchup in the AM hour, the NFL Network replayed the 2007 game between the Patriots and the Ravens... The one where the Ravens got robbed and the Patriots almost blew it. I saw a couple of Rams named Kyle Boller and Jason Brown balling their asses off against that 'undefeated'** Patriot team. Jason will be snapping to Kyle today against the 49ers. Don Shula strongly praised Boller's performance in that game. We're going to need one just like that if we are to have any chance today against the 49ers.

As I have noted, many will question whether Buffalo and Miami is a good match up. I say yes because Buffalo is much better than I expected them to be, and I don't think Miami is anywhere near as bad as their 0-3 mark indicates. I am wonder if this is the moment when one of these two teams will start a ferocious rally, or whether this is the moment when either or both teams break and fold.

In my mind, the Jets vs Saints is the biggest match up of the weekend. These are the two hottest teams on the board. Both have shocked the football world several times in the first three weeks. This game should be a mighty adventure with two new young & rising football teams. Also, this a very rare match up. These two teams don't know each other at all, and they play vastly disparate styles of football. It reminds me of the regular season match up between the 1999 Rams & Titans. Neither of those teams were expected to make it to the big dance that year. Both did. I am wondering if maybe... just maybe... this could be a Super Bowl preview.

I am going to be perfectly honest with you and tell you that I am praying for a massacre in Denver. Nothing would make me happier today that a 43-3 victory for the Cowboys over the Broncos... except maybe a Ram victory over the 49ers. I believe Denver is the biggest pretender on the board. I have no clue how these spotty wee little fuckers have gotten out of the blocks with a 3-0 start. They are the most fortunate cheeky buggers I have ever seen. I am looking for big strong Dallas to score a bloody knockout today and crush the weasel. I think Dallas can improve their standing and expose these fools as the pretenders that they are.

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh is a remarkable match up, but I doubt it will be a good game. Frankly, Pittsburgh is a team which is struggling with a one-dimensional offense that can't run. They are going to play against the strength of the Chargers defense, which is the pass. This is a game that the Steelers must win if they are to remain competitive. We'll see, but the tables favor the Chargers rather heavily.

Green Bay and Minnesota is a soap opera drama that might actually provide us with a good game also. The faggott analysts on the networks love the telenovella dramas. I like soap opera as much as I like balls across my nose or a pooh-poo snake in my mud-whistle. This match up is interesting because these are the two teams socking it out for the NFC North, and Green Bay cannot afford to go two down this early in the race.

One more point: I would be remiss if I didn't mention a few more things about the Rams vs. 49ers game. For those of you on in Connecticut who know nothing about the West Coast, this is one of the four days each year which hyper-galvanize a lot of us in PAC-10 country. The Raiders vs. Chargers is another match up which drives a lot of regional interest.

The 49ers are our hated enemies. This is one of the reasons Eddie DeBartolo sited as a pretense for a supposed lack of interest in buying the Rams. We are brutal rivals. Whether both teams are bad, good, good or bad, we still hate the hell out of each other. Marshall Faulk officially picked the 49ers during the handicapping session on the NFL Network's pregame. By the end of the show, he let loose with a burst of optimism that we might surprise some people today.

Watching Kyle Boller play against the 'undefeated' Patriots in 2007 spun my head around a bit. A saw a terribly good looking young quarterback playing one hell of a competent effort. Shula's comments only proved that this was not my personal bias in effect. Boller was a key reason why the Ravens gave the Patriots a horrendous scare on that evening in 2007. Certainly, Kyle has a moment today when he can become the full-time regular quarterback of an NFL franchise. You can loose your starting position as a result of an injury. You can loose your starting position as a result of chronic perpetual injury. Nobody would be more pleased than I would be if Kyle Boller took full advantage of this opportunity, and settled our problems at Quarterback.

After 3 years, it is pretty clear that Bulger does not get the West Coast offense. Looking at the tape from 2007, Boller looked pretty damn comfortable running Brian Billick's implementation of the West Coast.

Thoughts about the early games on week two

Three "Shocking" upsets

No doubt the writers will be focusing on three 'upset' victories we see on the early slate.

• Jets 16 Patriots 9
• Bengals 31 Packers 24
• Texans 34 Titans 31

For my money, this first game is no upset. I expected the Jets to take down the rebuilding Patriots. I have been the sole truth teller regarded the rebuilding status of the Patriots. I am surprised the Patriots kept the game this close. If the Jet offense had just played with a bit more confidence, they could have blown this game wide open.

On the other hand, the Bengals perpetrated a hellacious upset. The Pack got caught with their pants down. The Bengals balled their asses off. The Bengals just took down a team that could make it to the Super Bowl. While my heart hurts for the Pack, I am excited to see the long-suffering Bengals show some signs of life. The green shoots are up! The green shoots are up!

The Texans might be the owners of an even more shocking upset. They played with tremendous effort and courage as they came back from 21-7 deficit to win this game. Andre Johnson french fried the Titans secondary. The just couldn't stop him at all. The Titans have to deal with the fact that they had the game well in hand twice and blew it twice. The Titans now go to 0-2, and they are looking every inch the part of last year's fluke team. Depending on what the Colts do tomorrow, they could be in some early trouble here.

Three Games that went as expected, or better

From my perspective three games went extremely well. As expected or better.

• Cardinals 31 Jaguars 17
• Saints 48 Eagles 22
• Vikings 27 Lions 13

I do not believe the Jags are bad team. I think they are a very good team. I think they took a couple of Philadelphia Left-Hooks from an angry-as-hell Super Bowl contender that got ambushed last week. They took a pretty good sized ass-whipping from the Cardinals who controlled the game from start to finish. The Jags never got a whiff of this football game.

A number of wags were picking the Eagles last night on the NFL Network. I don't know what you were thinking. This one went as expected. You could see this a mile away. With no McNabb and no Vick, there was no way in fucking hell the Eagle offense could keep up with the greatest offense in the NFL. It is time for us to recognize that the Spirit of the Greatest Show on Turf and Air Coryell now resides in New Orleans. The Saints are playing downright beautiful offense. It is a joy to watch those guys do their thing. They hung 48 on a collapsing Eagle defense. It was humiliation for the Eagles. These Saints are a special football team. If they keep doing this, they are going to the Super Bowl. Only the Cards can score with them.

While I can enjoy Peter King's prediction that that the Lions would break the loosing streak this week, I suspected this was pretty far-fetched. The Viking fans must have been dropping bricks in their shorts when the Lions scampered out to a 10-0 lead. They are getting better. Unfortunately, the Vikings rallied to score 27. Still, the Lions are improving. They are going to be ready to win a few soon.

Three Games the Surprised me

• Raiders 13 Chiefs 10
• Falcons 28 Panthers 20
• Redskins 9 Rams 7

How about them Raiders? The autumn wind is a pirate... The Chiefs are a rapidly improving football team and the Raiders had to come back to win, but this is the second consecutive week where the Raiders played tough football and were more than good enough to win. Maybe they are going to win this year?

I did not expect the Panthers to factor in the game. I expected the Falcons to dominate the hell out of this football game. I thought it would be very ugly and one-sided. This game was far more competitive and tighter than I ever would have expected. It had the second highest fan rating of any game on the board, meaning that we will see it on Replay this week. Still, the Falcons did what they were expected to do and they prevailed.

Now for my Rams. I have good news and I have bad news. The bad news is that we lost 9-7. Our offense continues to suck. We have scored a total of 7 points this season. However, our offensive line is improving. The good news is that Bulger did not die. He got hit a lot and savagely pressured at times. He was only sacked once, but this fact does not tell it like it was. Still, our line is improving. Although the Redskins brought the heat, our guys did more to hold them off than I expected. The announcers complained that the Redskins had some serious offensive issues. I think my Rams defense had something to do with that. Our special teams continue to be good.

The ultimate upshot is that we took on a Redskin team that is better and more talented than the Seahawks who blew us 28-0 last week, and we made it a lot closer this time up. We are improving. The Redskin faithful were booing during the last 1:30 of regulation as the skins took the victory formation. That fact is interesting... If we only had some offense...

Chris 'Beanie' Wells will be the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year 2009

Baring injury or legal entanglement, Beanie Wells will be the NFL's Rookie of the Year 2009. I just want to go on the record and say that so that nobody calls me a band waggoner, claim jumper, Johnny Come Lately when it happens. I suspect he will run for at least 1300 yards. He only needs 81.25 yards per game to achieve this goal. He'll get it.

So why would I say this? This is why:

1. He was the best back in the draft. Screw the position where he was drafted.
2. He is large, powerful and fast. He reminds everybody of Eddie George.
3. He goes to a Super Bowl team
4. He goes to an offense which has been an aerial circus, and spectacular at times.
5. He goes to a team with a good offensive line
6. He goes to a team which needs a running back, and a running game.
7. He goes to a team that is planning to use him immediately. They cut Edgerrin James the second they drafted Wells. You know what this means.
8. He will be the 6th or 7th rated threat on the Cardinal offense at the start of the season.
9. He will rise to become the 3rd rated threat on the Cardinal offense, but I doubt he will rise higher than that.
10. Statistically speaking, the winner of the AP offensive rookie of the year award is almost always a running back.
11. No running back drafted this year is better set up for success than Beanie Wells.

The AP offensive Rookie of the year award began in the year 1967. One of my UCLA brothers, Mel Farr, was the first man to win it. He was a running back for the Detroit Lions. The prize has been awarded a total 43 times. Only 3 positions have ever been awarded the trophy: Running back, Quarterback and Wide Receiver. A running back has won the award 31 times. A Quarterback has won it 4 times. A wide receiver has won it 7 times.

We can say now that there is a 72% chance of a running back winning the award in 2009. We can say that thee is a 9% chance that a QB will win it. We can say that there is about a 16% chance that WR will win it.

This tells you a couple of things:

• The world does not value offensive linemen, and that sucks.
• The world does not value tight ends, and that sucks.
• It is very hard to come in and make an impact as a rookie QB.
• Receivers have an easier time that QBs making the transition, but the pro passing game is different from the college game. They need time to make the transition.
• Running backs have the most difficult job in terms of punishment, but an easy job in terms of transitional difficulties. The position is the same in college and in the pros.

Believe it or not, Ben Rothelisberger was only the 2nd quarterback ever to win Rookie of the Year. Do you know that Dan Marino, the greatest rookie of all time in my estimation, did not win Rookie of the year award? He was beaten by a running back name Eric Dickerson. Yep, my brother Ram Eric Dickerson defeated Dan Marino for the rookie of the year award in 1983! This tells you how slanted the field is in favor of running backs. It is not just a matter of how difficult the QB position is to play. The electors favors running backs. Even when a sensational rookie QB emerges, he can and will loose to a sensational running back.

So this is how the story of 2009 goes, IMHO. Most defensive coordinators are worried about the Cardinal passing attack. They pretty much open with a nickle defense. They play pass first. To beat the Cardinals, you must stop the passing game, not the running game. Wells is not a serious threat in their books... at first. Wells gets the ball on draws, delay hand-offs, shotgun draws, shovel passes, quick outlets. He beats people up. By the 4th quarter of the season (game 13), Wells rises to the 3rd ranked threat on the Cardinal team, according to NFL D.C.s, but he rises no higher than 3rd. Most defensive coordinators don't believe Wells is a bigger threat than Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden. They can't justify allocating primary resources to stop Wells first. Rated no higher than the 3rd priority in defensive meetings, Chris Beanie Wells prospers throughout the entire 2009 season.

The next thing you know, Wells has 1300+ yards, and he is the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Which teams are most likely to turn it all around in 2009?

As we all know, Miami, Atlanta and Baltimore all experienced miracle filled revivals in 2008. All three of those teams went from worst to first... or second. The Ravens finished second in their division but finished higher than either Miami (whom they stomped) and Atlanta (who got jacked by the Cardinals).

These are all truly amazing stories. It used to be rare when a team like the 49ers in 1981 and the Rams in 1999 turn it all around in just 1 season and win the Super Bowl. Well... it still is rare as hell. In fact, these are the only two teams ever to do it.

Just yesterday, I intercepted a few interesting communications between some big shots. These are fellows who write for Yahoo! and ESPN.com. They have their little secluded and confidential meeting places on the web where they can speak to each other as fellow experts without noise from partisan idiots. They were working through some serious research problems. Which teams have a serious chance to turn it all around in 2009 in the same manner as Baltimore, Atlanta, and Miami?

They quickly eliminated certain contenders such as Cleavland, New Orleans, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Washington. These are all easy picks. None of those teams should have finished at the bottoms of their respective divisions in 2008. They are all much better than that. Granted, it will be a shock if Cleveland takes the central away from Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but it is not that big of a stretch. It is not unthinkable. The same goes for Buffalo and Jacksonville. New Orleans & Jacksonville are both long overdue for great things.

I was quite shocked by what I read on the posts. When asked to pick a far-stretch guess who they picked?

1. Houston
2. Kansas City
3. St. Louis

This will bring great cheer to the hearts of those who live in Missouri for sure.

I considered Houston a cheaters pick because they were 8-8 last year and finished #3 in the AFC south. They were not at the bottom. The argument went like this:

1. Houston is still a new franchise.
2. They have no winning tradition yet
3. They are expected to finish dead last in what should be the toughest division in football in 2009. Nope it ain't going to be the NFC East in 2009.
4. With all due respect to Larry Fitzgerald, the Titans have the finest receiver in the league in Andre Johnson.
5. They have a lethal defensive end in Mario Williams.
6. They have a rookie of the year candidate in Brian Cushing
7. If Houston defeats Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee for the South Crown, it will be a monumental achievement nobody expected.

It is an interesting case. Certainly, the Texans were no pushovers in 2008. They ripped up some unexpected victims for sure *Denver*. They have been getting better and better every year. They were executing like a machine last year. If Indianapolis falls down in their coaching transition (as expected) and if Tennessee's defense comes unglued without Albert Haynesworth (as expected) then it is a shootout between Jacksonville and Houston.

Of course, most people don't see it that way. This is why it would be so shocking if it does go down like this.

So why Kansas City?

1. Because they have been drafting extremely well now for 3 years.
2. They have a fantastic offensive mind in Todd Haley, and he is a he is tremendous disciplinarian also.
3. With a good, young, mature quarterback in hand, they should be a hell of a lot better in 2009.
4. Denver has collapsed.
5. The Raiders ain't going to be much better.
6. San Diego is long overdue and should be a hell of a lot better. Unfortunately, they have been going backwards not forwards.
7. Nobody has confidence in Norv Turner. Great coordinator. Terrible head coach.
8. They have a relatively open road to recovery.

This is an interesting argument. There has been little or no joy in Missouri for two years now. Maybe there is reason to crack a slight smile.

The last one really caught my eye. Of course, you know I am a 29-30 year fan of the Rams. Ever since SB XIV against the Steelers. So why are you picking my team guys?

1. The Seahawks are not going to be much better this year. They entered a rebuilding phase last year. It was not a simple injury situation as people thought. Nobody believes it, but is true. Expect things to be as bad or worse in 2009.
2. The Cardinals are going to be cut low by the Super Bowl jinx. If Warner gets hurt, it is quarterback transition time, which is seldom smooth. Just look at Green Bay last season.
3. The 49ers do not have a quarterback. Despite the tremendous force of their great coach, they are still among the worst run organizations in the league.
4. The Rams offensive line is not as bad as people claim it is (HA! I dispute that!). The off season upgrade to the Center and Left Tackle will be sufficient.
5. They've got the second best running back in the league in Steven Jackson.
6. They still have a former pro bowl QB in Bulger.
7. The Wide Receivers are the key weakness.
8. The defensive talent is good.
9. Spagnuolo will fix the defense with scheme alone.
10. Spagnuolo was the pick of the litter in terms of Head Coach material... until Shanahan got fired.

The last five points I can agree with. Those are basically objective fact. Everybody knows Steven Jackson has been amazing running behind piss-poor blocking. Bulger has been to the Pro Bowl twice. The defensive talent is far better than anybody knows. Spagnuolo can fix the defense with scheme alone. Spagnuolo was indeed the pick of the litter

I have to dispute some of these points. I don't know that the Seahawks are rebuilding just yet. It might be. However, I could just as easily see them getting up off the carpet and giving the Cardinals hell for the division. Much depends on Jim Mora Jr. We'll see how he does in his second go round as a head coach with a much better organization behind him.

The Super Bowl losers jinx is real and powerful and effective. No team has lost the Super Bowl and then immediately won the Super Bowl the next year except the Miami Dolphins of 1972. They were also the only undefeated team in the history of the game. That includes you New England. Statistically speaking, the team that looses the Super Bowl doesn't even make it into the playoffs the next year. That includes you New England. This is a ghastly thing to face down if you are the Cardinals.

However, objectively speaking, if there were any team likely to bust that jinx I think it is the Cardinals. I do not believe they were a fluke. I believe they are loaded with talent. I think they may have quietly had the best draft in the NFL. People are going to be eating shit when Chris Wells wins Rookie of the Year in 2009. I believe that team flamed-on last year. I think they are truly committed to going back and winning this year. They may not do it, but they have to be the prohibitive favorite to win the West.

An injury to Warner would be a setback, but I for one, do not believe that Leinart is a busted pick just yet. This is one of the most infuriating subjects for me. I am infuriated for both QBs in this dilemma. Everybody keeps asking why Matt hasn't moved out that old man Kurt. Do you realize that is a two time league MVP (and Super Bowl MVP) you are talking about? This is the man who just led them to within 3 minutes of the world championship. This is the QB with the second highest all-time efficiency rating in history behind Steve Young. Yep, the stats say he is better than Joe Montana.

When Leinart has been allowed to play, he has shown flashes of brilliance. The problem is he can't yet inspire enough confidence in his head coach to sit-down a future hall of famer. That is tough to do.

I'm a little worried about the 49ers, but maybe that is just a legacy thing. Singletary is perhaps the most respected dude in the league right now. That is true for good reason. I am concerned that he is rapidly whipping the bums into shape and making them a military force. Still, it is an objective fact that they do not have a QB. That will place serious limitations on their prospects.

Finally, there is the issue of the Ram offensive line... What have I been saying all along here? What have I been harping on? The Rams have had the worst OL in professional football two years running. Yes, we did upgrade the Center and the Left Tackle positions, and these are the two most important positions on the line. Yes we should be better. But who is going to play guard?

They say bums off the highway can play guard. I don't believe it. You need men like John Hannah, Gene Upshaw, Russ Grim, Dennis Harrah, Larry Little, Mike Munchak, and Tom Mack to get the job done right.

Anyway I am glad to see my Rams got mentioned =))