Game 14 2009

All 32 teams in the NFL played their 14th game this week. It was a hard week for my anointed teams. As you recall I picked the following teams in the preseason:

1. Colts (won--barely)
2. Dolphins (lost to the Titans)
3. Saints (lost to the Cowboys)
4. Packers (lost to the Steelers)

This wasn't the end of the struggles. The Cardinals had to fight to beat the Lions. It looked like they were going to crush them early, but then the Lions came back. The Vikings, a team I have never bandwaggoned with in 2009, dropped an ugly stinker in Carolina. Of the solid playoff teams, only the Eagles made a solid effort and won well.

Worst of all, my Rams got up on their hind legs and fought the good fight against the Texans, but they failed to win. Maybe my Rams were offended by my suggestion that they have packed it in for the year. They decided to fight before finally packing it in. Once again, I am extremely pleased with our outstanding defense. Once again, I am utterly horrified by our pathetic offense, and our inability to score points. We need a serious offensive overhaul, just like the one we did between 1998 and 1999.

You could make an argument that this weekend was only kind to 3 playoff teams:

1. The Chargers (they won, and the Broncos lost)
2. The Cardinals (they won, and the 49ers lost)
3. The Colts (they won again, and they are the only undefeated team in the league)

I would tend to agree with Jamie Dukes, regarding the New Orleans Saints: This loss is a blessing in disguise. The Saints have been winning thrillers lately, instead of delivering all-out beat-downs, the way they once were. Now they took a beating at the hands of Dallas. I do agree with the notion that this will give them a renewed and refreshed focus in practice. They now know that they are not immortals. They know they can be beaten They know they need to improve during these two weeks before entering the playoffs.

A friend of mine, who is a 49er fan expressed a similar thought when he said: "I agree with Bill Walsh's philosophy: Let them loose 1 and only 1." This can have a focal effect on a championship caliber team.

Also, the loss really didn't hurt the Saints at all. The Vikings turned right around and dropped an ugly game to the Panthers. One more victory locks up home-field advantage through the NFC tournament.

The two games you have to watch this weekend

Cincinnati vs Minnesota

I was stunned by what I saw on NFC matchup this morning: Sharp was stunned when Baldinger picked the Bengals. Sharp questioned him very closely on this one. Frankly I am stunned that he is stunned. I question how Sterling can question that pick.

Nobody mentioned the 10 ton elephant in the room: E.J. Henderson, the Vikings All-Pro Middle Linebacker just got killed by friendly fire. He will not be in the lineup this weekend, or for the rest of the year. Given this fact, I don't see how you can favor the Vikings. When I saw Henderson go down against the Cardinals, my first thought was: "They are going to get killed next week against the Bengals."

The Bengals are perhaps the most aggressive running team in the NFL. The stats say it is the New York Jets. I will tell you the Bengals do it better. They have nasty offensive line, and they fire the ball right up the middle with Cedric Benson, Larry Johnson, and former Ram fulback Brian Leonard. If you think they are going to miss an opportunity to run where they like to run, right where E.J Henderson isn't, you are absolutely crazy.

Call me foolish. Call me irresponsible. Call me a dreamer. I just don't like the thought of a mediocre defense, without its all-pro Mike Linebacker, trying to stop the Bengals running game. This is the most dangerous match the Vikings will face before the playoffs. I think it is a game they are unlikely to win. If you think the 49ers gave them some troubles...

There remains an irrational and unjustifiable level of exuberance & optimism around the Vikings and their chances for a Super Bowl birth. We need to remember that the Saints are the only undefeated team in the NFC. The Vikings just had their asses handed to them by those sneaky Cardinals. In the process, the Vikings suffered some major carnage. The sneaky Cardinals are once again poised to upset in the NFC tournament. They are more talented than the Vikings, especially on defense, and especially now. The matchups between the Saints and the Vikings, don't favor the Vikings.

In all seriousness, both of these teams could end up in the Super Bowl, theoretically. However, I would tell you that the Bengals have a much better shot than the Vikings. I say that based on the Colt's lamentable history of early exits in the playoffs. If the Colts get waylaid, the Bengals can go all the way.

San Diego vs Dallas

I don't know what to say about this one. You have two teams with opposite records in December. Dallas just came off a fluky loss (two plays turned that game towards NY) and the Chargers are riding a hot streak. Both teams badly need a victory to stay ahead in their divisions. Both teams are playing extremely well.

These are argubaly your two most tallented teams in the league. A few years ago, during their 14-2 2006 season, the Chargers put 12 men in the Pro Bowl. A few years ago, during their 2007 season, the Cowboys topped that with 13 in the Pro Bowl. This is the biggest contest on the board, and it should be exciting as hell.

I would tell you that this is a pick'em game based on the breaks, ref calls, and the bounces. If I have to pick one, I'll take the Cowboys because I believe the Chargers defense is still suspect.

Who are the NFL's most vulnerable teams?

As I mentioned in my last post, the actuarial statistics teach us that 5 or 6 football teams that were in the playoff tournament last year, will not be in the tournament this year. One of the nice preseason predictions we like to make consists of just who these teams are.

I realize that this is a bit out of order, since I have not done my AFC predictions just yet, but I thought I would list mine now.

1. The New England Patriots: As I mentioned in my last blog, the 3-time undefeated defending NFL Super Bowl champs... errr... sorry... that team that didn't make the playoffs last season won't make the playoffs this year either. The team that has not won a Super Bowl in 5 years lost way too many crucial pieces of the Super Bowl Puzzle this spring in retirements and trades. This is going to be a breakdown year. The Patriots are officially rebuilding now.
   
2. The Panthers: In a strange fluke, the Panthers were extremely strong last year. I guess it was because of their fairly overwhelming running attack. I doubt they will be so strong this year. They are also facing much more powerful opposition inside their own division. Look for New Orleans and Atlanta to sink their ship. This is the most obvious call on the board.
3. The Eagles: One theory says the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl and they are going to win. Bullshit. The team that went to the NFC championship last year had the #3 ranked defense in the NFL. If they had not had a single shoot-out game with Dallas on Monday night, they would have been #1. With Jim Johnson dead and Dawkins in Denver, forget about that defense in 2009. They will be ranked no higher than #15 defensively at best. Expect lots and lots of soap opera and melodrama between the Menage a Trios of McNab, Vick, and Reid.
4. The Vikings: The team that won the Central, barely won the central last season. This was due primarily to the tremendous weakness of their division. They got whacked immediately by Philly. No division is more upgraded than the NFC Central. No team has more Melodrama going on that the Viks. Believe me, they are in for an ass whacking and they will be home for the playoffs. I'm not talking about home field advantage either.
5. The Steelers: The Steelers did in fact have the worst offensive line of any team ever to win a Super Bowl. I absolutely concur with Jamie Dukes about that. I got bad news for you about that subject. They lost a couple of those guys in free-agency moves. Marvel Smith in SF, for instance. This is not good for Ben's health. You have my condolences, but I favor the Ravens this season. I think the Steelers can still make the playoffs as a wildcard.
   
6. The Titans: Albert Haynesworth's departure is a terrible thing. I believe Kerry Colins experienced a fluke year of sorts last season. I do expect a reduced level of competitiveness from these guys this season. Worse, I think the Colts got better through the draft. The coaching changes are interesting, but not as much so as we originally thought. I expect the Colts to win the division. I would be surprised if the Titans don't make it in, but they will have to take the Wildcard route.
   

The 2009 Vikings are the 2008 Browns

Last year the big buzz was about the Cleveland Browns. The Browns were the high fashion pick to win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. They did not make it to the playoffs. They did not challenge the Steelers. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. Romeo Crenell got fired.

The Cowboys & Patriots were the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl according to most. Nope, neither one of them made it into the playoffs. Nobody favored the Steelers and Cardinals. If you had picked the Cardinals... I shutter to think of the consiquences of picking the Cardinals in the pre season of 2008. It would have been ugly.

The Colts and the Chargers were all supposed to be favorites as well. The Chargers had the worst record of any team to win its division. They upset the Colts who went 12-4, but were forced to take the wildcard route through the playoffs.

There is a lesson here: All forms of predictability have broken down. You cannot predict next years results based on last year. The continuity and consistency of teams has been irreparably compromised and destroyed by free agency. Whereas you could count on 6 to 10 years from a good unit in the years of indentured servitude. You can't count on anything now.

Now in 2009 everybody is buzzing about the Vikings. Mike Mayock, my most trusted advisor on the subject of talent, and normally the most reliable guy in the world, is also swept up in this mania. To be perfectly frank, he may even be the primary party responsible for it.

Well, I just want to go on the record here and say I don't believe it. Those who say that the team is loaded have a lot of explaining to do. The way I see it, the Vikings are team with only one legit superstar player. We all know that is Adrian Peterson. They have a modestly talented defense that does a hell of a lot with scheme and discipline. This is good, but remember: they are only modestly talented on defense. Jarred Allen may be the most modestly talented guy on this modestly talented defense, but he is no hall of famer. I do not believe they are a quarterback away from the Super Bowl. I do not believe Brett Farve is the last piece in the puzzle. I believe Brett Farve is beat to hell and utterly exhausted. I believe they have a better chance with the two QBs they have. To be frank, I suspect the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC North.

Other teams I don't believe in

Patriots:

You know, once upon a time in the year 1980, I watched the two time defending Super Bowl champs, The Steelers, lose two tough games on Monday Night Football. They lost a big one to the next champs, the Raiders. They lost another big one to the San Diego Super Chargers. They finished 10-6. The Oilers 11-5, and the Browns 12-4 went to the playoffs. The Steelers stayed home for Christmas. I knew that was the end of the line for the Steelers. I was never concerned about them for the rest of 1980s. I just knew that was the end. I was right too. It was all down hill from there. I was very confident that that was the end of the dynasty. Many of the Steeler hall-of-famers continued to play for years after that. Still, they never did well after 1980. Chuck Knoll coached for 10 more years.

When the Pats lost Super Bowl 42, I knew that was the end of the dynasty. People have been talking shit about them going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl since the moment the Commish handed the Lombardi Trophy to the New York Giants. Do you realize how stupid you sound? I want to go on the record and say that I don't believe it. Especially now that Brady has had reconstructive knee surgery. A couple guys named Elway and Marino had this surgery. It took them two seasons to get back to something like their normal form. Neither were quite the same. I know the Patroit Dynasty ended two Super Bowls ago. That was the end of the line. Stop talking empty vanities and bullshit. It's over.

The Eagles

Please, bitch! The strength of that team was the defense; the Johnson & Dawkins defense. Both are now gone. The Eagles have done nothing to repair the breach. I am expecting a pretty sizable defensive breakdown from the Eagles in 2009. This Eagle defense will finish no higher than 15th in the NFL, dropping at least 12 slots from 2008. It could be worse than that.

"Oh, but the offense is greatly upgraded!" Let's wait and see how Michael Westbrook's surgically repaired ankle is. He is the West Coast back in the West Coast offense. He is the balls of the offense. They are not the same without him, and he has often been injured. I heard somewhere that he has never turned in a full 16 game season. If Westbrook is healthy and turns in 16 games the offense will be substantially upgraded. If he is not, forget it. All they did was tread water. Even in the best case scenario, offense wins games and defense wins championships. Forget the Lombardi Trophy. The Giants are way ahead of the Eagles.