The Pecking Order

A sober analysis of the Rams

The Rams have opened 0-2 for a fourth straight season. Week one featured a loss to the Cardinals. Week 2 featured a loss to the Raiders. Both games were close 17-13 and 16-14 respectively.

Both opponents are now 1-1, with victories at the Rams expense. Both teams were demolished completely by their other opponents. The Raiders were systematically annihilated by the Titans 38-13. The Cards were annihilated 41-7 by the Falcons.

Now for the complex part. The opponents of the opponents are both 1-1. The Falcons destroyed the Cardinals and became a 1-1 football team. The Titans destroyed the Raiders and are now 1-1. Who did the Falcons and Titans lose to? It was the same opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are now 2-0.

Stop me if I am wrong, but the Steelers are supposed to be vulnerable and beatable team right now lacking Ben Roethlisburger, am I right? Maybe not. However, most Las Vegas experts would not put money on the Steelers were they going against top-end competition like the Colts or the Saints. They probably wouldn't bet money on the Steelers were they going against the Texans either.

The way I see it, the Steelers are a second tier team, below the elites, especially in view of the fact that they lack Roethlisburger. They may change my mind very soon. We will see.

This would make the Falcons and Titans 3rd tier, or so it seems in the early going of this 2010 season. Yet the Falcons and Titans systematically annihilated the two opponents who have defeated the Rams.

So here we have our first whiff of an NFL pecking order, or ranking tree. Guess who is at the bottom-bottom? Well... the Vikings are 0-2 also. Yep, but they are not expected to finish with a losing record. Neither are they rebuilding... yet.

Because hope springs eternal, and fans are biased to believe whatever a General Manager tells them, there were some who were all jacked up about the Rams in the 2010 NFL Season. As you well know, I was not one of them. I believe we passed on many opportunities to acquire high-impact players. I'm am talking about all-pro players like Brandon Marshall, Alan Faneca, Thomas Jones, and Albert Haynesworth. In short, we did not do what we needed to do to produce a great-leap ahead.

The forces of truth would dictate that management should be honest about verities of the situation. You should try to bring down expectations, warning people that this going to be a rough year. This is only year 2 (or 3) of a comprehensive a-z rebuilding program. Tempering the enthusiasm with a little reality is the honest thing to do.

Against the forces of truth are the marketing forces. Marketing forces would remind us that the Rams were 29th in stadium attendance last season. They would remind us that the Rams are currently operating in the Red. They would remind us that the Rams just dished out 50/78 (86?) million dollar contract to Sam Bradford. They would remind us that the Rams are about to pitch a new Stadium proposal at the city fathers of St. Louis. If city fathers don't buy into it, it's time to move the franchise.

Who wins in the battle of truth v marketing? Marketing, by a knock-out. Truth goes down in flames.

So, the Rams' draft strategy in 2010 has not produced an instant-turnaround. We have not seen a great leap ahead. It has not produced a substantial change in the NFL pecking order.

We are still seeing a lot of guys rolling around on the ground defensively during enemy running plays. OH! I forgot, they were tackled by the turf monster. However, there are no holding calls when the turf monster tackles our front 7.

This would not have happened if we drafted Ndamukong Suh, kept Adam Carriker and traded for Albert Haynesworth. You know I was pissed about all of these issues. I wrote about these moves and anti-moves copiously in public forums.

Hey, I've got an idea: Let's draft a surgically repaired QB, who missed his senior season, provide spotty protection from an unproven line, poor receivers, run an outdated offense, with a bad coordinator, and let's tell the fans we are going to make a great leap forward. What do you say to that?

Great plan! Some might not buy it, but we are in a business where you just can't please everybody all the time. We have to accept that. This will work! It's sufficient for 2010.

Dump your Titans stock as quick as you can

So I was just watching the NFL network a few moments ago, and here we have Mike Martz and Charles Davis playing Buy, Sell or Hold with François. Both of them were buying Titan stock. I was shocked. Their reasoning? This is a Jeff Fisher team. That is all.

No, no, no, no fuck no. That is totally insufficient and inadequate reasoning. Let me give you some Donald Duck in Mathematicsland courtesy of Matt Millen and Penn State. The Titans are 0-2. The Colts are 2-0. The Titans must travel to Giants Stadium New Jersey to take on Mark (dirty) Sanchise the freakin' franchise of the Jets. This is a loss for the Titans. For sure. No bullshit.

Folks, the Jets punched the Texans in the face. The beat 'em up, took their lunch money and made them cry. The Texans were shutout. The Texans scored 34 against the Titans. This does not bode well. The Titans were eliminated from the playoffs last season by a mean and nasty Baltimore defense they could not figure out. That defense was the product of Rex Ryan. A defense very much like that is headed straight for them. The bottom line is this is loss for the Titans. It may be hard-fought, but it will be a loss. The Titans open 0-3.

Some say the transitive law of equality does not function in NFL football games. I would agree, but I expect it to work well in this case.

The Colts are headed for a shoot-out with the Cardinals in the Desert. This game is going to be amazing. The Colts may or may not be favored to win against the Cardinals. I personally would favor the Cardinals by the slimmest of margins. I may be allowing my biases to show there. Pick'em. This may be the most entertaining game of the year. The Colts are going to have luxury of dropping this one and maintaining a 2 game lead on the Titans. Should they prevail, they will have a 3 game lead on the Titans.

They will have two matches against the Titans. The first is in Week 5 where they will journey to Nashville. Expect the Colts to split the series at the least. This will maintain a 2 to 3 game lead through 5 weeks of play. Nasty math for the Titans. They are digging themselves a mighty hole which is probably going to be too deep to dig out of. Don't expect the Colts to tank the way the Broncos did last year. There will be no meltdown in Indianapolis.

Who are the NFL's most vulnerable teams?

As I mentioned in my last post, the actuarial statistics teach us that 5 or 6 football teams that were in the playoff tournament last year, will not be in the tournament this year. One of the nice preseason predictions we like to make consists of just who these teams are.

I realize that this is a bit out of order, since I have not done my AFC predictions just yet, but I thought I would list mine now.

1. The New England Patriots: As I mentioned in my last blog, the 3-time undefeated defending NFL Super Bowl champs... errr... sorry... that team that didn't make the playoffs last season won't make the playoffs this year either. The team that has not won a Super Bowl in 5 years lost way too many crucial pieces of the Super Bowl Puzzle this spring in retirements and trades. This is going to be a breakdown year. The Patriots are officially rebuilding now.
   
2. The Panthers: In a strange fluke, the Panthers were extremely strong last year. I guess it was because of their fairly overwhelming running attack. I doubt they will be so strong this year. They are also facing much more powerful opposition inside their own division. Look for New Orleans and Atlanta to sink their ship. This is the most obvious call on the board.
3. The Eagles: One theory says the Eagles are going to the Super Bowl and they are going to win. Bullshit. The team that went to the NFC championship last year had the #3 ranked defense in the NFL. If they had not had a single shoot-out game with Dallas on Monday night, they would have been #1. With Jim Johnson dead and Dawkins in Denver, forget about that defense in 2009. They will be ranked no higher than #15 defensively at best. Expect lots and lots of soap opera and melodrama between the Menage a Trios of McNab, Vick, and Reid.
4. The Vikings: The team that won the Central, barely won the central last season. This was due primarily to the tremendous weakness of their division. They got whacked immediately by Philly. No division is more upgraded than the NFC Central. No team has more Melodrama going on that the Viks. Believe me, they are in for an ass whacking and they will be home for the playoffs. I'm not talking about home field advantage either.
5. The Steelers: The Steelers did in fact have the worst offensive line of any team ever to win a Super Bowl. I absolutely concur with Jamie Dukes about that. I got bad news for you about that subject. They lost a couple of those guys in free-agency moves. Marvel Smith in SF, for instance. This is not good for Ben's health. You have my condolences, but I favor the Ravens this season. I think the Steelers can still make the playoffs as a wildcard.
   
6. The Titans: Albert Haynesworth's departure is a terrible thing. I believe Kerry Colins experienced a fluke year of sorts last season. I do expect a reduced level of competitiveness from these guys this season. Worse, I think the Colts got better through the draft. The coaching changes are interesting, but not as much so as we originally thought. I expect the Colts to win the division. I would be surprised if the Titans don't make it in, but they will have to take the Wildcard route.
   

The shocking death of Steve McNair at age 36

Well, I could hardly believe the news yesterday. It reached my ear via the NFL network sometime around 4:00pm. I am not certain of the time. I do know that the NFL network preempted the America's Game documentary about the 1979 Steelers to cover this story.

The facts of the case are these:

1. McNair was 36 years old, and had only been retired from pro football for 1 year.
2. McNair and his family had decided to live in the Nashville area after his retirement.
3. McNair was married with 4 children. All four of them are sons: Tyler, Trenton, Steven, and Junior.
4. McNair got involved in an extra-marital affair with a 20 year old Persian-Iranian woman named Sahel Kazemi.
5. He evidently met Sahel when she was a food server at a sports grill named "Dave & Buster's" some five months ago.
6. She May have broken off a four-year relationship with a fellow named Keith Norfleet in order to begin a relationship with McNair some 5 months ago. According to other accounts, her relationship with Norfleet may have ended a month before she took up with McNair.
7. Evidently McNair set her up with a modest home at located in the downtown area of Memphis. The exact location is the Rutledge House Apartments, 600 2nd Avenue South, Nashville, TN 37210-2063. Manager Number: 615-255-8155. This is at the corner of 2nd Avenue and Lea.
8. The apartment has been described as Spartan, lacking any homey touches. Piles of mens sneakers in the kitchen. A dozen of bottles of booze on the kitchen counter. Reviews of the apartment complex on the web are unflattering at best. This place was no 5th Avenue townhouse.
9. This Apartment is within sight of LP Field, or the Coliseum, where the Titans play on Sunday. This is situated just across the Cumberland River. The Rutlege House apartments are also easy walking distance from a local sports-talk radio station. It is just 6 miles away from McNair's 14.000 sq ft mansion where he and his family lived.
10. Although reports describe the home as a condo, McNair clearly had a rental agreement, and the Rutledge House is listed as an apartment complex.
11. McNair also recently bought Sahel a 2007 Cadillac Escalade for her 20th birthday. The vehicle was registered to both Steve and Sahel.
12. Neighbors believed McNair had moved in with her based on the amount of time he spent there with her.
13. The two were photographed Parasailing together. Evidently, he took her on trips to Las Vegas and Key West.
14. McNair had been drinking with friends on the evening of Friday July 3rd 2009. He had visited two bars: The Bluemoon Lagoon, and the Looser's Bar. No bad jokes, please.
15. McNair apparently arrived at Sahel's condo sometime around 1:30-2:00am on the 4th of July. He never left alive.
16. Police could find no sign of forcible entry to the home.
17. The bodies were discovered by McNair's friend Wayne Neely. Neely is described as a Sporting Goods vendor and co-renter of the Condo. As the co-renter of the condo, he had a set of keys to the home. He had to use these to enter home.
18. Neely then called mutual friend Robert Gaddy. Gaddy had played football with McNair at Alcorn State. Gaddy subsequently made the phone call to 911 at 1:35 pm.
19. A time of death has not been established. Autopsy evidence indicates they both died in the early morning hours Saturday July 4th 2009; perhaps 9-11 hours before they were discovered dead.
20. McNair was found seated on the couch in the main living room of the condo. He had been shot four times, including two fatal shots to the head, and two in his chest. He had been shot once in each temple. One of those head shots was at close range.
21. Sahel was found dead, on the floor near McNair, shot once. She had a single gun shot wound on the side of her head (the temple). Her head wound manifested a contact burn, meaning the barrel was in contact with her head, and the flash of the muzzle burned her flesh. This is typical of suicide gunshot wound to the head. The murder weapon--a semi-automatic pistol--was found under her dead body.
22. The pistol was not discovered until deep into the investigation of the crime scene. It was only discovered when it was time to remove the bodies from the crime scene.
23. The Metro Police have ruled McNair's death a homicide. He was murdered. It is incredibly unlikely that he shot himself 4 times, including twice in the head, and then placed the murder weapon under Sahel's body.
24. The police have not yet ruled on Sahel's death.
25. The police are not looking for suspects.
26. The police are expected to rule Sahel's death a suicide
27. It is likely that this will case will end up a murder-suicide on the county record books.
28. Sahel Kazemi's family is adamant that she did not commit murder or suicide. They are insisting that a third party was involved in the crime.
29. Kazemi's family members state that McNair was in the process of divorcing his wife, and was going to marry Sahel. Reportedly, they say she was only willing to begin the relationship because she thought he was already in legal proceedings for divorce. We should not be too quick to believe that. A girl beginning an illicit affair with a married man would be inclined to tell her family this sort of thing, whether it is true or not.
30. No one in McNair's inner circle has confirmed any hint of a divorce. The county court house has no record of divorce filings or legal separation in Steve & Mechelle McNair's name.
31. Another Kazemi family member now says she fears that McNair was just using her relative. There is some acknowledgement that the reports of divorce may have been false or premature.
32. Steve & Mechelle's 14,000 sq ft mansion had recently been put up for sale for an asking price of $2.9 to $3 million USD. This is a fact of uncertain meaning. We shouldn't be too quick to draw a conclusion from this fact. It could mean anything. The family real estate agent claimed they were selling this mansion to buy another close to the lake.
33. Mechelle is denying that she knew anything of Steve's affair. She has stated that she was completely blindsided by this news. We shouldn't be too quick to believe that. Women can live in great denial of their husband's affairs... even when they know everything.
34. At least one source has described Sahel as mentally disturbed. We may have plenary evidence of this fact by now.
35. The police have determined that Sahel recently purchased a gun. The Federal ATF traced the weapon and determined that the murder weapon was the semi-automatic pistol purchased by Sahel Kazimi. It had been purchased Thursday evening, the 2nd of July. This is perhaps 32 hours before the murder-suicide.
36. The fact that Sahel could successfully purchase a semi automatic pistol is provocative. By Federal law, it is illegal for any individual under the age of 21 to buy or own a hand gun. A resident of Tennessee cannot apply for a weapons permit until 21. This must be an illegally obtained and unlicensed weapon.
37. The Police have now told Sahel's family that they are almost certain she is the shooter, but they have not locked-down a clear motive.

So what does a man say to an event and a case like this? Looking at the facts, a clear-cut pattern emerges.

A great quarterback retires from the NFL. As always he feels his life and career have blown past him far too quickly and ended too soon. He is confronted with thoughts of his own mortality. He believes he is on the count down to death, rather than the count up to his greatest achievements. This triggers his mid-life crisis, something all men go through. He stews at a low boil for some 7 months, probably in a state of depression.

McNair solves the mid-life crisis the way all men do: He gets his groove back by getting sexually involved with a young and gorgeous exotic woman. He becomes her sugar daddy, setting her up with everything she wants and needs. He buys their 'love nest' in the shadow of Titan stadium, so he can be reminded of the glory years as he is reinvigorated for his 2nd act in life. They go through a torrid sexual affair which lasts some 5 months, in which McNair is re-invigorated.

The fact that he could maintain her on the cheap, with a sub-part apartment condo, sparsely decorated & furnished, not to mention a used 2007 Escalade, may have been a plus in his mind. But she had much bigger ambitions for this relationship. She wanted to graduate from this temporary (good enough for now) status and become the queen of the 14,000 sq ft castle. Incidentally, the quality of Sahel's abode does not speak well of Steve's generosity toward his concubine.

Many men divorce their long-time wives and break up their first families in order to marry their mid-life crisis girlfriends. Regrettably, John Elway--a long time hero of mine--completed this pattern recently. Based on what happened, this was probably not the case with Steve McNair.

No one has confirmed that McNair was divorcing his wife Mechelle. It is more likely that McNair had come to his senses, was going to put an end to this relationship, and return to his wife. The breakup discourse may well have begun sometime around 1:30am Nashville time on the 4th of July 2009.

Another plausible theory is that McNair told Sahel that he would not divorce his wife, and he would never marry her sometime on or around July 2nd. He may have told her he would be happy to continue the affair (which is why he partied with her the next night) if she was willing to continue as his concubine, but their would be no marriage with her. Shortly after that discourse, Sahel purchased the gun.

She probably freaked out, knowing that Steve intended to keep her in this bare-knuckle arrangement, as a side-bitch, with few rights and little status. This was probably totally unacceptable to her. Given her possible record of insanity, she probably gave up on the notion that her life could work out well. This is when she decided on the course of murder-suicide.

In either case, Sahel snapped and drilled McNair four times with a semi-automatic 9mm pistol, including the two fatal shots to the head. She then put the gun to her temple and pulled the trigger, blowing her own brains out.

At least this is my theory. It would make all the facts fit together in a dreadfully tight package. We'll see. Sahel's ex-boyfriend might have killer them both. We can rule out the notion that Shi'ite Fundamentalist might have killed them both for consorting defilement with Infidels. Sahel was a member of the Baha’i faith sect, a non-Islamic group. Right now the cops are not looking for anybody. This would make the 3rd party murderer unlikely. Of course, the cops could start up a new investigation at any moment; the second the autopsy is finished.

The Police finished their interview of Sahel's former boyfriend, Keither Norfleet. They say he was fully cooperative, and he is not under suspicion. No suspects are being sought. I would say they are pretty close to closing this case.

Behavioral scientists would be shocked by this. As a rule, men do all the killing. When women murder and suicide, it is not usually with a gun. As a rule, it involves poison. Women are great poisoners. However, mentally disturbed woman have used guns to commit multiple murders. Since this was almost certainly a crime of extreme passion, I suspect that she did this abruptly in a massively emotional state.

There is a terrible tragedy here. Shakespeare said that Hell hath no furry like a woman scorn. This would appear to be another Fatal Attraction situation, much like the one Michael Douglas produced back in 1987. This one had a far worse outcome.

For all of us men out there: This is one of the best reasons why you should keep your snake in your pants... zipped up. Women go crazy in these situations. You could wind up dead.

I am very sorry to hear that this is how Steve McNair's life ended. It seems like a dreadfully wrong ending to his life. He didn't seem like a guy who would either encounter or be worthy of this sort of death. Nevertheless, this is how it has apparently ended for him.