2011 NFL Season, Week 12 Results

So, I forgot to post my prediction results from last week slate of NFL games.  Here they are.  My record was 13-3, which is pretty good, but not sensational.

I still did very well, especially when compared with the ESPN crew.  However, they are catching up.  Mark Schlereth beat me with a record of 14-2.  Good job, Mark!  Both of us missed on the Rams, incidentally.  Several dudes managed to tie my record of 13-3. This would include Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter as well as the Pick'em gambling service.  You can see all the results here.

Hendry's coin did not fare very well this week.  Th coin was 9-7.  Yes, this is a winning record, but the coin did not beat a single human prognosticator at ESPN.  It got close to Golic, but he was still better by one game.  Here are the results of the coin toss.

Sicilian message to the draft class of 2010

So, rumors from Adam Schefter, Chris Mortensen and Jason La Canfora declare that Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is going to be suspended for 6 games. The sentence can be reduced to 4 games if he cooperates with certain 'voluntary' requirements. Yeah, that's right, the new oxymoron is voluntary requirements.

I knew it was going to happen like this. I thought 4 games would be the real number, and I think that is the way it turn out, as history unfolds. I am not at all surprised by the timing. I absolutely expected it to be done on the eve of the draft. Those who expected the Commish to 'not spoil the celebration of the draft' missed the point completely.

This is a golden opportunity for the Cappo to send a Sicilian message to all the little kiddies who are about to be drafted tomorrow. He wants every NFL hopeful, especially those selected in the 1st and 2nd round, to put their little heads down on their little pillows tonight, and meditate on the fact that one of the super stars of the NFL just got fried (hard) by the Commish. This can happen to you! He wants this to be their final thoughts on the eve before the biggest day of their young lives.

I think it is a great message to send the kids. I am proud of the Commish for handling this thing smartly. I think this will have a disciplining effect. Those who can be saved will hear this message. The hardcore recalcitrants will have to be busted out of the League, as always. This is doubly important as the 2010 draft class continues to draw raves as the most important class since 1983. This could be the draft that sets the league for the next 10 years.

So I heard Colin Cowherd this morning disusing the Roethlisburger situation. His mantra was simple: Take advantage of the Steelers. You can't find anybody in this draft that will do what Roethlisburger will do for you. Make the deal. Give the Steelers 10 picks for Ben, if that is what it takes. My daughter's not involved in the case. If she was it would be different.

This is Cowherd in a nutshell. This is his classic a-moral stance in all its glory. Greazie sleazy! This is Al Davis's bastard child. Well, let's say I totally understand his position, I know it could work out for somebody, and I will not take his advice. I really don't want the serial rapist on my team. I don't want to be know as a fan of the team that cut a deal for the serial rapist. I don't want to be known as the guy who did absolutely anything to win. Let's keep our hands clean and find another way to win. I'll take my risks with clean living Bradford (preferably Tebow) and see what happens. Colt would also be good.

The remarkable foolishness of the Philly fans

Donovan McNabb rumors were all the rage last night on ESPN & the NFL Network. A full consideration of these rumors will lead you to a very humorous new understanding semi-spoiled, semi-desperate, and not too technically astute football fans. Before continuing on with the facts let me qualify my last statement:

• The Eagle fans are semi-spoiled because the Eagles have been consistent winners in one of the toughest divisions in football for the past 9 seasons. During this time, they gone to the NFC title game 5 times, and to the Super Bowl once.
• The Eagle fans are semi-desperate because they do not believe these quality years will continue for much longer before the wheels fall off the bus. They maintain that Donovan McNabb is the absolute limiting factor holding this team back. They are anxious to transition now, and take a shot at the Super Bowl now, before the quality years end.
• The Eagle fans are not particularly astute. They don't seem to realize that Andy Reid managed a pretty remarkable makeover of the Eagle offense during the past two drafts. The defense needs some work in this draft, but the Eagles are well set for some time to come. I do not see their quality years ending soon... unless they do something stupid.
• If the Eagle fans were a bit more astute, they would realize that the Eagles took a step back in 2009 because of the death of Jim Johnson, and the loss of Dawkins. The defense was the problem in 2009.

So where is the humor in this story? There isn't much if you are Donovan McNabb, however, if you are a marginally disinterested party, this story is a funny tale of irrationality and incoherence mixed with sports passion. Consider the logic of the following set of propositions:

1. The Eagle fans are desperate to unload McNabb
2. Yet they are desperate to get something for him before they 'waste' another year
3. They also do not want to allow him to walk away without any compensation for the team
4. They have embraced the fabricated rumor that the Rams will deal them the #33 pick and O.J. Otogwe for McNabb.
5. Yet Otogwe is not currently under contract by the Rams and cannot be traded.
6. Since Otogwe is not under contract by the Rams, the Eagles could simply sign him (at a price the Rams won't match) and Otogwe would be an Eagle

Implicit within statements #1 and #2 is the theory that McNabb is an impediment, and he must be disposed of. This would suggest that McNabb is a negative, and yet the Eagles want considerable compensation for him. This is declared in point #3. I find these three propositions contradictory, taken together.

Point #4 is confounded by the actual facts of life. The Rams are not negotiating for McNabb's services, period. This has been confirmed by NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora; not to mention Steve Spagnuolo & Billy Devaney. League sources declare that only the Eagles and Bills have made some overtures the Eagles, and shown some interest. Yet Eagle fans don't seem to care about the ESPN & NFL Network reports exploding their current pet theory. They seem to be enjoying the story they are telling each other so much, that prefer to ignore the factual reports.

Point #5 and #6 add the cherry on top of the whipped cream. Otogwe could be signed by the Eagles for the price of simple contract, so his addition brings no value at all to any trade package. This is assuming that he could be traded at the moment, which he cannot. This major error uncovers the hand of a poor liar, not well versed in NFL subterfuge. In short, this is the work of Mike Florio.

I have to say that I am enjoying the fireworks. I got big belly laughs out of recordings of Eagle fans on Philly's 97.5 FM. Mike Missanelli reminded me of Buddy Hackett in some of his funnier roles. Consider the following video footage of this joker:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d817269e1/Moving-McNabb

What did he say?

1. He thought the trade with the Rams had already been consummated; this according to some of the fans he talked to on the radio. {Joke}
2. Sentiment in Philly is running 75-25 against McNabb; possibly 80-20. Eagle fans are ready to turn the page.
3. When confronted with reports discrediting the Ram trade rumors Missanelli simply says "General Managers have been known to tell some fibs this time of year." He quickly turned his attention to his interpretation of Andy Reid's behavior.
4. When confronted with the extension-veto that McNabb holds, Missanelli quickly denied the existence of the extension-veto, effectively saying "McNabb doesn't have much choice in the situation. I think we can get somebody to take the deal."
5. When asked why a team would even give the Eagles compensation for a player with just one year on his contract, Missanelli first evaded the question and then finally said "Signing McNabb is the other teams problem. You gotta do what you gotta do. We need to move on with Kevin Kobb" He also tried to assert that McNabb would accept an extension in St. Louis because "he has people there", specifically Shurmer and Spagnuolo.

Oh Bouy... Where do you start deconstructing this mess?

You could start with the fact that McNabb can't accept a contract extension with the Rams because they aren't bidding or negotiating... but I won't go there.

First of all, you can immediately understand why Mike Missanelli is not a General Manager in the NFL. He would have no talent for making the deal. What is the art of the deal? Adam Smith summarized it best when he said

"It is not to the charity of the butcher or the baker that we owe our meat and bread, but rather to his regard to his own self interests."

Adam Smith taught us that you interest somebody in an economic transaction by appealing to his/her most base economic interests. You have to find truly interested parties in the market. You have to point out why your item for sale will delight the customer. You have to explain why this transaction would be absolutely fantastic for the buyer. You have to take on all obvious objections and show why there is no negative downside to the transaction, for the buyer, not for you. Did Missanelli do that? Nah, hell nah.

• The whole sales pitch rings of me, me, me. The Eagle fans want what's best for them, and screw the other side of the transaction.
• In working the Ram rumors, the Eagle fans fail to identify a truly interested party.
• By saying "we want to unload him, you take him" you are asking for a favor, you're not interesting a customer in doing a deal.
• All of the Philly fans, including Mike Missanelli, have deprecated this trade deal by deprecating McNabb.
• You will hardly overcome objections, and void negatives by saying something like "signing him is your problem. You gotta do what you've gotta do."

During the whole conversation, Missanelli never once grasped the point that Fran Charles was making: Your deal is next to impossible because McNabb holds defacto veto power. It was zeal for the deal that did it. He's so anxious to move on, he doesn't want to hear any spoilers. To be a GM in the league, not a fan, you need to be an ultra-realist. You need to grapple hard with all possible spoilers and come up with a sound solution.

Mike Missanelli is basically saying "Here is a choke-artist QB with 11 years in the league. You pay him the last year on his current contract, and give us a pick between #20 and #33 for it. If it is #33, we want a sweetener." That's one hell of a lousy sales pitch if you ask me. You can't even sell a Sham Wow or Slap Chop in that style.

It is human to be extremely myopic and selfish. This is one of the humorous moments in this story.

If I step back and look at this scene from 20,000 feet, what do I think?

1. There is some merit in the Eagles fans claims. McNabb has come up small in some big places. His performance against top-end competition in the biggest venues has not been a model of excellence.
2. On the other hand, McNabb hasn't always had play makers around him, and it hasn't always been his fault. The Eagles lost the NFC Championship last time because the Eagle defense could not stop the Cardinals on their clock-killing and game winning drive. There was also a questionable non-call on a pass interference play.
3. McNabb does hold a pocket-veto power in this case. It may not look like it at first glance, but his refusal to sign an extension can spoil and beak any deal.
4. It sucks to be Donovan McNabb. Can you imagine toiling for 12 years (and it will be 12 years before he walks as a free agent), walking out the door unceremoniously as a free agent, holding all the Eagle records, having had a hell of winning record in Philly, and being this poorly regarded for your efforts? Can you imagine retiring after having your body broken in Philly, and being this unappreciated for it. It sucks to be McNabb.

One more point: Just as I was about to hit the Publish Post button, I discovered this little gem.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/26/1391985/mcnabb-trade-eagles-raiders

It would appear that McNabb's agent Fletcher Smith has been given no reason to believe that a trade is immanent. Since any trade would likely require a contract extension, you can bet Fletcher Smith will be on board from the ground floor. I would say that this information should just about finish this inane conversation, but of course you know it will not.

This has more to do with the desire of frustrated Eagles fans than football facts and reality.

If we draft Sam Bradford, it will end in tears

Broken dreams and flying machines laying in pieces on the ground.

Adam Schefter has guaranteed that the Rams will select Sam Bradford #1 overall in the NFL draft in April. I guess he wants to burn his street cred, which is pretty good. Unless we all forget about this false prophecy he is likely to wind up with a great deal of egg on his face. Devaney politely bitch slapped Schefter for cause.

I am fairly certain that Schefter and ESPN are just talking to brew talk. It is the off season. We still have almost two months to go before the draft. Schefter and his ilk are expected to be active this week because of the combine, but strict combine reports don't market well. Spectacular rumors about the first pick do sell well, even in the off season. This means that it is the best week of the year for absolute bullshit rumors.

Just on the off chance that Devaney and Spagnuolo are thinking about doing something stupid, I want to lay a heavy prophecy of doom on all you. *_IF_* we the Rams select Sam Bradford with the #1 pick (or any pick) in the 2010 NFL Draft:

1. Bradford will become the next Jim Plunket; a Heisman trophy QB full of promise, destroyed by physical injury. .
2. Sam will not play long behind our craphouse offensive line.
3. You will see the Marc Bulger pattern re-emerge.
4. It will all end in tears
5. Shahid Khan, or Kroenke, or both will fire Devaney and Spagnuolo in just 2 years time when it becomes clear we went bust on the #1 pick, selecting an injury plagued quarterback.
6. No progress will be made at all.
7. We will ruin the young man's otherwise promising career.
8. At best he will fame-on with some other team after years of disappointment, and be voted the comeback player of the year after he leads somebody else to the Super Bowl.

No, ESPN. Drafting Sam Bradford is the absolute wrong thing to do with the #1 pick. In fact, it is a straight up stupid argument. Every argument ESPN has made in this case is confounded, fallacious, anti-factual, and fabricated out of nothing.

Or let us hope so...

So Vick is coming to the Rams...?

Bouy... the once proud Yahoo! Sports section is really circling the drain now. According to unnamed and sundry sources inside some Fantasy Football league, the Eagles are planning to deal Vick to the Rams.

According to these 'sources', Jason La Canfora is biting on a piece of trickeration. The Eagles will deal Vick, and the Rams are the leading contenders to acquire Vick's services via trade. This is because Billy Devaney was in Atlanta during the time Vick was QB there, and Spagnuolo was a defensive assistant to Jimmy Johnson for years. Allegedly, this means he can mine Andy Reid's mind for useful nuggets about Vick.

All this proves that a deal is going down. Yep...

When Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora report the deal is in the works, I will believe it. When Yahoo! sites fanboys who have yet to move out of their mother's basement, I just can't believe the reports. Further, I am astounded that Yahoo! sports would report a story with this kind of credibility gap in the sources.