Steven Jackson had very minor back surgery...?

Just finished watching NFL Live! on ESPN.  They more or less confirmed my worst suspicions.  Neither Marcelus Wiley nor Mark Schlereth believe there is any such thing as minor back surgery.  Schlereth said he had 20 knee surgeries (!) but he would have taken 20 more rather than the single back surgery he had.  He says his back hurts him every single day.  It has ever since the surgery.  Evidently, it is not quite so with the knees.

They were particularly concerned about the effects of a herniated disk on a bull-rushing power back whose game is predicated on thumping defenders and making them pay for trying to make the tackle.  Now, ESPN has a vested interest in sensationalizing this stuff.  Worries about Steven Jackson will galvanize Ram fans.  Should I discount their statements for this reason?

Nope.  I know a little something something about these surgery things.  The doctors do everything possible to avoid surgery.  Surgery is the option of last resort for most of these guys.  Back surgery is particularly thorny business.  Doctors don't take that liability lightly or flippantly, especially with million dollar athletes.

There is another factor.  You are reading the writing of a guy who hero worshiped Earl Campbell.  Campbell is so badly damaged and worn down now that he is said to need a walker to make it any significant distance in public.  He uses his hands constantly to take weight off his legs when not using the walker.  They say the same about George Rodgers.  This is rumored to be happening to Jerome Bettis now.

In many ways, Steven Jackson's career has defied logic.  He continues to excel on a crappy team.  Nobody has to motivate him.  He is driven by the furnace inside.  He doesn't want to leave.  He hasn't been disgruntled.  He hasn't had scandals {recent false accusations set aside}.  He hasn't asked to be traded.  He has made it 6 full years as the single back in a pathetic offense, and he has been a thumper all the way.  He accounts for 40% of our offense.  He was both our leading rusher and our leading receiver last season.

Most running backs have a very difficult time getting that second contract.  The life expectancy of a running back in the NFL is just 4 seasons.  When the fall off into injury happens, it is usually sudden and swift.  Just look at Shawn Alexander.  Jackson is exceptional... but you have to worry... has his career begun that sudden and swift decline?  Very scary.

It is hard to for me to talk about Steven.  Why?  Because his career seems so damn tragic to me.  I can't imagine what it would be like to be the only great player on a team, to sacrifice your body and your career hammering away on a project that will never bear fruit in your professional lifetime.  I haven't seen a case this tragic since Walter Peyton.  Peyton did make it to a massive Super Bowl victory eventually.

What are the odds Steven's career does the same?

This is why I say Steven's career seems like such a tragedy to me.  It's hard for me to talk about this.  Anyway... I'll drop it.

I was the only dude in the Ram forums declaring that we should be looking at Toby Gerhart before the Draft.  They wanted to stone me... and that was just for starters.  I warned them that Steven's age and the beating he has taken should not be discounted lightly.  Let's just say my testicles were almost crushed in the uproar.  I even had the audacity to publish that statement at BleacherReport.com between day 1 and day 2 of the draft.  I got the cold shoulder.

Now it looks like the dick is up the other ass.  All those guys who thought I was a mad man sure wish Gerhart was on our football team now, don't they?

They are going to do the same fucking thing 3-5 years when Tim Tebow explodes.

What is worse, we have no real solid or sound backup for Steven.  Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket and jogging to market...

It is more than likely that Jackson will miss something like 3-5 games this season.  What do we plan to do during those 3-5 games?  Where is Sam Bradford's security blanket going to come from during those games?

You see... the official game plan for 2010 is already breaking down.

Less than zero credence?

Last night on ESPN's NFL Live, the guys discussed Coach Bill Bellichick's dinner with Tim Tebow. Bellichick heaped praise on Tebow afterward. Just what does this mean? Does this mean the Patriots will be drafting Tebow and grooming him as Brady's eventual replacement in their Spread-like offense?

Marcellus Wiley and Mark Sclereth didn't think so at all. Wiley said that pre-draft official visits should be given less zero credence when it comes to assessing a teams interest. He sited his own story as a perfect example. The Bills drafted him site-unseen in the 2nd round. They never spoke with him prior to the draft. They didn't come to his ProDay. They never called his agent. They never invited him to Bills' HQ. They never even had the team doctor look at him. They just drafted him. This is the clandestine nature of the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The received wisdom is that the 30 official visits are mostly burned on subterfuge & decoys. Teams are playing the cards close to the vest, not showing their hands. A nice pro-point can be found in last year's draft. The Rams burned one of their official 30 team visits on Mark Sanchez. We signaled that we were interested. We passed him by. Everybody knew we were just manipulating the Jets.

I would add a couple of modifiers on this. Teams do scout their first rounders with these offiicial team visits, especially when they are destined to become super-high first rounders. If you look at every #1 overall pick for the past 30 seasons, he visited the team that drafted him. He might not have played for that team, but he visited with the team that drafted him.

The second modifier I would tag on is that teams are quite deceptive about their 2nd and 3rd round preferences. Almost every team will get a crack at your 2nd and 3rd round selections once or twice. All of your divisional opponents will have an opportunity to practice the strategy of denial. The Patriots have many enemies in the AFC. There is no profit in tipping your hand to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Chargers. Some of these teams would be inclined to take a prospect off the board if they knew the Patriots were interested.

Consider this example. Suppose the Patriots are seriously considering making a small move up to acquire Earl Thomas or Eric Berry on draft day. It could happen. The Patriots need a lot of defensive help. They have not replaced Rodney Harrison. Suppose Berry goes quickly as expected. Strange picks happen. The Raiders do something stupid. Earl Thomas begins to slide. The Steelers are on the clock with #17. They hear the Patriots are negotiating with the Falcons, and they have heard the name Earl Thomas in the mix. The Steelers have a strong need for a corner, and somebody who can sub for Troy Palamalu. They are also sweet on Maurkice Pouncey. Knowing the Patriots are making a move to acquire Thomas, would the Steelers fill their need in the Secondary first? I suspect they would. You screw the Patriots and fill your need at the same time. This is a double bonus.

This is why there is so much stealth and deception surrounding later picks. This is why you guard those 2nd rounders particularly close to the vest.

So what does this principle indicate for a Ram fan? Don't place too much credence in Colt McCoy's visit. Also, don't place much credence in the Rams' apparent total lack of interest in Tim Tebow. I know for a fact we are seriously considering Sam Bradford, and at the same time I know for a fact that we would deal that pick in a split-instant if a good trade is offered. It could go either way on draft day. If we deal that pick, we are looking for a QB in the 2nd round or later; most probably the 2nd round. Suppose this is a Marcellus Wiley situation? Who do we take at #33 or #37 or #38?

If you doubt this scenario, consider this video, just posted today where Sam Bradford indicates that the Rams have not tipped their hand to him, and he is still in the dark about where he is going to go come draft day.

On the one hand, I am disappointed that we are deceptively signalling Colt McCoy. The Rams did not attend the UT ProDay yesterday, which I consider a mistake. There were a lot of prospects there to see. Now we are using one of our 30 visits on a presumptive 2nd round pick? Under the Schlereth-Willey law, what does this tell you? We're wasting Colt's time. We're just playing the game. This is unfortunate. Colt McCoy is a serious prospect, and deserves some respect as such. I do like the kid a hell of a lot.

However, you know I like Tebow just a little bit better. Since Tebow is a presumptive 2nd rounder, I am glad we are signalling no interest at this moment. Things still might go well for us.

The remarkable foolishness of the Philly fans

Donovan McNabb rumors were all the rage last night on ESPN & the NFL Network. A full consideration of these rumors will lead you to a very humorous new understanding semi-spoiled, semi-desperate, and not too technically astute football fans. Before continuing on with the facts let me qualify my last statement:

• The Eagle fans are semi-spoiled because the Eagles have been consistent winners in one of the toughest divisions in football for the past 9 seasons. During this time, they gone to the NFC title game 5 times, and to the Super Bowl once.
• The Eagle fans are semi-desperate because they do not believe these quality years will continue for much longer before the wheels fall off the bus. They maintain that Donovan McNabb is the absolute limiting factor holding this team back. They are anxious to transition now, and take a shot at the Super Bowl now, before the quality years end.
• The Eagle fans are not particularly astute. They don't seem to realize that Andy Reid managed a pretty remarkable makeover of the Eagle offense during the past two drafts. The defense needs some work in this draft, but the Eagles are well set for some time to come. I do not see their quality years ending soon... unless they do something stupid.
• If the Eagle fans were a bit more astute, they would realize that the Eagles took a step back in 2009 because of the death of Jim Johnson, and the loss of Dawkins. The defense was the problem in 2009.

So where is the humor in this story? There isn't much if you are Donovan McNabb, however, if you are a marginally disinterested party, this story is a funny tale of irrationality and incoherence mixed with sports passion. Consider the logic of the following set of propositions:

1. The Eagle fans are desperate to unload McNabb
2. Yet they are desperate to get something for him before they 'waste' another year
3. They also do not want to allow him to walk away without any compensation for the team
4. They have embraced the fabricated rumor that the Rams will deal them the #33 pick and O.J. Otogwe for McNabb.
5. Yet Otogwe is not currently under contract by the Rams and cannot be traded.
6. Since Otogwe is not under contract by the Rams, the Eagles could simply sign him (at a price the Rams won't match) and Otogwe would be an Eagle

Implicit within statements #1 and #2 is the theory that McNabb is an impediment, and he must be disposed of. This would suggest that McNabb is a negative, and yet the Eagles want considerable compensation for him. This is declared in point #3. I find these three propositions contradictory, taken together.

Point #4 is confounded by the actual facts of life. The Rams are not negotiating for McNabb's services, period. This has been confirmed by NFL insiders such as Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora; not to mention Steve Spagnuolo & Billy Devaney. League sources declare that only the Eagles and Bills have made some overtures the Eagles, and shown some interest. Yet Eagle fans don't seem to care about the ESPN & NFL Network reports exploding their current pet theory. They seem to be enjoying the story they are telling each other so much, that prefer to ignore the factual reports.

Point #5 and #6 add the cherry on top of the whipped cream. Otogwe could be signed by the Eagles for the price of simple contract, so his addition brings no value at all to any trade package. This is assuming that he could be traded at the moment, which he cannot. This major error uncovers the hand of a poor liar, not well versed in NFL subterfuge. In short, this is the work of Mike Florio.

I have to say that I am enjoying the fireworks. I got big belly laughs out of recordings of Eagle fans on Philly's 97.5 FM. Mike Missanelli reminded me of Buddy Hackett in some of his funnier roles. Consider the following video footage of this joker:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d817269e1/Moving-McNabb

What did he say?

1. He thought the trade with the Rams had already been consummated; this according to some of the fans he talked to on the radio. {Joke}
2. Sentiment in Philly is running 75-25 against McNabb; possibly 80-20. Eagle fans are ready to turn the page.
3. When confronted with reports discrediting the Ram trade rumors Missanelli simply says "General Managers have been known to tell some fibs this time of year." He quickly turned his attention to his interpretation of Andy Reid's behavior.
4. When confronted with the extension-veto that McNabb holds, Missanelli quickly denied the existence of the extension-veto, effectively saying "McNabb doesn't have much choice in the situation. I think we can get somebody to take the deal."
5. When asked why a team would even give the Eagles compensation for a player with just one year on his contract, Missanelli first evaded the question and then finally said "Signing McNabb is the other teams problem. You gotta do what you gotta do. We need to move on with Kevin Kobb" He also tried to assert that McNabb would accept an extension in St. Louis because "he has people there", specifically Shurmer and Spagnuolo.

Oh Bouy... Where do you start deconstructing this mess?

You could start with the fact that McNabb can't accept a contract extension with the Rams because they aren't bidding or negotiating... but I won't go there.

First of all, you can immediately understand why Mike Missanelli is not a General Manager in the NFL. He would have no talent for making the deal. What is the art of the deal? Adam Smith summarized it best when he said

"It is not to the charity of the butcher or the baker that we owe our meat and bread, but rather to his regard to his own self interests."

Adam Smith taught us that you interest somebody in an economic transaction by appealing to his/her most base economic interests. You have to find truly interested parties in the market. You have to point out why your item for sale will delight the customer. You have to explain why this transaction would be absolutely fantastic for the buyer. You have to take on all obvious objections and show why there is no negative downside to the transaction, for the buyer, not for you. Did Missanelli do that? Nah, hell nah.

• The whole sales pitch rings of me, me, me. The Eagle fans want what's best for them, and screw the other side of the transaction.
• In working the Ram rumors, the Eagle fans fail to identify a truly interested party.
• By saying "we want to unload him, you take him" you are asking for a favor, you're not interesting a customer in doing a deal.
• All of the Philly fans, including Mike Missanelli, have deprecated this trade deal by deprecating McNabb.
• You will hardly overcome objections, and void negatives by saying something like "signing him is your problem. You gotta do what you've gotta do."

During the whole conversation, Missanelli never once grasped the point that Fran Charles was making: Your deal is next to impossible because McNabb holds defacto veto power. It was zeal for the deal that did it. He's so anxious to move on, he doesn't want to hear any spoilers. To be a GM in the league, not a fan, you need to be an ultra-realist. You need to grapple hard with all possible spoilers and come up with a sound solution.

Mike Missanelli is basically saying "Here is a choke-artist QB with 11 years in the league. You pay him the last year on his current contract, and give us a pick between #20 and #33 for it. If it is #33, we want a sweetener." That's one hell of a lousy sales pitch if you ask me. You can't even sell a Sham Wow or Slap Chop in that style.

It is human to be extremely myopic and selfish. This is one of the humorous moments in this story.

If I step back and look at this scene from 20,000 feet, what do I think?

1. There is some merit in the Eagles fans claims. McNabb has come up small in some big places. His performance against top-end competition in the biggest venues has not been a model of excellence.
2. On the other hand, McNabb hasn't always had play makers around him, and it hasn't always been his fault. The Eagles lost the NFC Championship last time because the Eagle defense could not stop the Cardinals on their clock-killing and game winning drive. There was also a questionable non-call on a pass interference play.
3. McNabb does hold a pocket-veto power in this case. It may not look like it at first glance, but his refusal to sign an extension can spoil and beak any deal.
4. It sucks to be Donovan McNabb. Can you imagine toiling for 12 years (and it will be 12 years before he walks as a free agent), walking out the door unceremoniously as a free agent, holding all the Eagle records, having had a hell of winning record in Philly, and being this poorly regarded for your efforts? Can you imagine retiring after having your body broken in Philly, and being this unappreciated for it. It sucks to be McNabb.

One more point: Just as I was about to hit the Publish Post button, I discovered this little gem.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/26/1391985/mcnabb-trade-eagles-raiders

It would appear that McNabb's agent Fletcher Smith has been given no reason to believe that a trade is immanent. Since any trade would likely require a contract extension, you can bet Fletcher Smith will be on board from the ground floor. I would say that this information should just about finish this inane conversation, but of course you know it will not.

This has more to do with the desire of frustrated Eagles fans than football facts and reality.