Back to the combine! It's better than Christmas!

Last Thursday night's NFL Total Access was our first broadcast from combine in Indianapolis.  That is a significant significator.  It's the official start of the NFL draft season.  It's the unofficial start of the NFL business season also.

Love it!

I was pretty excited when I saw that the gang had been fully reassembled:  Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly, Charles Davis, Mike Lombardi, et al.  We'll be seeing Bucky Brooks and Corey Chavis soon also, I am sure.  I had heard rumors that Charley Casserly had signed exclusively with CBS Sports, and I was worried we wouldn't be seeing him on the NFL Network this year.  It is a good thing that rumor was false.  It wouldn't be the same without him.

It is so damn good to see you guys again!  You have no idea.  I was going to blog on this subject Thursday night, but I was a little preoccupied with prep for my next surgery on Feb 28, and a number of other mundane household subjects.

Sometimes I get a good feeling.  I get a feeling that I never, never, never had before.  I gotta feeling that this is going to be a really good draft.  The crop looks bountiful.  The crop looks good.  I am confident that we have some franchise changing players scattered across the top of this draft.  I am sure some of these kids will make it to the Hall of Fame.  It won't surprise me when they do.

Last year I complained bitterly about the poor quality of the seniors, the QBs and the offensive linemen.  I didn't like the Linebackers either.  Von Miller was the sole exception, and one of the three most exciting players in the Draft last year.

2011 was a poor draft year.  This is not the case in 2012.  This is a PH PHAT draft class.  The prospects look damn good to me thus far.  I am excited.

Speaking of Charley, he had the first Mock draft of the combine last night, and I think he pretty well nailed it.  Charley's list looked like this

1. Colts:  Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2. Browns (from Rams):  Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
3. Vikings:  Matt Kalil OLT USC 
4. Rams (from Browns): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
5. Bucs:  Trent Richardson RB Alabama
6. Redskins:  Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples DE UNC
8. Dolphins:  Riley Reiff OT Iowa
9. Panthers:  Michael Brockers DT LSU
10. Bills:  Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama

Most of the others felt he nailed it too.  The most critical critique came from Coach Brian Billick, who said "Charley's got 9 out of the top 10 players, and 6 in the right spot, so he's only wrong by 4.  That's pretty good!"

I would say it's probably a little more accurate than that.   What are the points of disputation here?  I think they are as follows:

1. The Redskins won't take Morris Claiborne
2. The Bucs will take Morris Claiborne one spot earlier
3. The Bucs won't take Trent Richardson. They already have a damn good power-back in LeGarrette Blount.
4. The Redskins won't go quietly into the good night without a QB in this draft.  Rumor has it that they are adamant about getting Robert Griffin III.  Charley is presuming the Rams will chose to drop back just a couple of steps to gain some extra picks and still get our man (Justin Blackmon) a little bit cheaper.  I think that's a pretty good guess.  I can't see our team passing on some extra picks, but we won't want to lose Justin Blackmon either.  Most believe we would be reaching for him at the #2 pick, based on our critical need.  This is probably and accurate assessment of the situation.
5. It is questionable whether the Dolphins would take another tackle so high in the draft when they already have the best OLT in all of football.  Riley Reiff would be relegated to right tackle duties, and generally, you don't take a right tackle so high.  Charley has said this himself.  I do understand the logic, though. Riley Reiff would seem to be the perfect bookend companion and counterpart to Jake Long.  If you get Peyton Manning in Miami, you might want to make this pick.  It will be a very tempting choice if Manning comes to town.
6. Some would dispute the Bills taking Courtney Upshaw, but the more I think about it, the more I think it is the perfect fit.  The Bills play a 3-4 defense and they need a pass-rushing elephant linebacker.  There is none better in 2012 draft than Courtney Upshaw.  He is an ideal choice for their needs and scheme.  Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I think he would go great with Marcell Dareus.  Wait... hasn't that been tried?  Did that workout once before?
7. Many of us are still questioning whether Trent Richardson will wind up going so high in the draft.  It's not that he's unworthy of the pick, he is a very worthy dude, but rather the fact that the RB position is so deeply deprecated in the modern NFL.  Most GMs just don't believe that you take an RB so high in the draft.  As always, it will only take one GM to make it happen, tho.

I look forward to many more of these blog posts as the Draft season continues.

Tragedy in Carolina

Folks, it looks like the Panthers are going to be next team to step up to the plate and make a tragic mistake. They're going to gamble on a quarterback, and the one they are focused on is not a good gamble. I feel bad for my buddy Eric. We've been talking football for four years now, and he is a big Panther fan. Last year, I went through this hell, but it was nothing compared to what he's going through now.

So why am I down on Newton? Setting aside the fact that his daddy is a deliverance pastor who asks for college bribe money, setting aside the cheating on tests at Florida, setting aside the stolen laptop, setting aside the bailout from Florida just ahead of the posse, setting aside the one-year wonder thing at Auburn, setting aside the bailout from Auburn just ahead of the posse, forgetting about both entertainers and icons, dismissing the 21 on the Wonderlic, we still have to deal with the Gruden thing.

Jon Gruden has reprised his lovely role in ESPN's quarterback-shakedown series this year, and Newton was the most recent kid to show up on the show. It did not look good to me folks. Boggies were showing up on my radar. Mike Florio put it succinctly when he said "Newton comes to the NFL with zero knowledge or experience regarding the way that offensive plays are constructed and called"

Folks, it ain't often that Mike Florio and I see eye-to-eye. We do this time. His conclusion is the logical one based on the evidence we saw. I saw a guy who was painfully uncomfortable with the entire situation, and painfully trying to smile his way past the agony of it. That's not good. My hair was on fire during that segment. If you compare and contrast that to the cool/easy competence that Blaine Gabbert showed in Moochie's "Game Changers" chalk-talk, we're talking about a led vs. gold comparison here.

Mel Kiper Jr. recently said that Clausen's appearance on Gruden's show last year damaged his stock, and promoted his slide. Folks, Clausen did a much better job in his Gruden interview than Newton did. My hair wasn't on fire during the Clausen segment. It was during the Newton interview. I think this one ranks at the tops of my "Politically Damaging" pre-draft events.

I'm not saying I'm sold on Gabbert as the top pick in the draft, but if you have determined that QB is your greatest need, you would be suicidal to select Newton ahead of Gabbert. You are certifiable if you make that choice.

This is reflected the most recent series of Scouts Inc Top 32 rankings. Gabbert is headed north. Newton is headed south. Gabbert was ranked at #8, he is now at #5, although his score of 96 has not changed. Newton's score has dropped by single point (from 94 to 93), and he has now slid from #12 to #16. This is Gruden's work for sure. Gabbert is probably rising because he acquitted himself very well on "Game Changers" and Gruden's show.

Nevertheless, the Panthers are signalling that they are preparing to make a tragic mistake. Just about all Mock drafts published recently reflect their signals, showing Newton as the #1 pick. Against all reason, they are preparing to fuck themselves in the ass. It's going to cost them 5 lost years folks.

Highly respected voices on NFL Path to the draft support this move. Guys like Charles Davis and Bucky Brooks defend this move, offering feeble justifications for it. "You have to take a chance on Greatness." "Playing it safe with this pick will just land them right back in this same spot next year."

I know why.

In boxing, it used to be common to use a term called "The Great White Hope". The term reflected White America's desperate craving to see a white guy reclaim the heavy weight championship of Boxing. Each time an untalented white dude would emerge in the heavy weight ranks, he would become the focus of tremendous marketing hype. A guy who was not really a contender became a contender. We knew he didn't have the stuff to defeat Muhammad Ali, Larry Holmes, Mike Tyson or Evander Holyfield, but he got the hype anyway.

The same phenomenon exists in Black America vis-a-vis NFL Quarterbacks. Black America desperately craves a great NFL Quarterback. What do we mean by great? A multi-time Super Bowl champion powering a dynasty, and a QB ranked at the top of the efficiency charts. The last great Black hope was Donovan McNabb, but with Donovan's career in limbo, someone else must fill the void. Newton is the 'born at the right time' guy who seems to have captured Black America's imagination, despite the fact that Michael Vick is much closer to the goal. Guys like Davis and Brooks seem so infatuated with Newton's physical prowess, that they are overlooking clear yellow & red flags. Davis and Brooks never do that under ordinary circumstances. They aren't doing that with Ryan Mallet who also has red-flags.

An unbiased observer can tell that this guy doesn't have what it takes to handle Ali, Holmes, Tyson or Holyfield (read: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even Vick) but he is getting the hype anyway.

I am sure you can capitalize on this hype in the short run. This hype can and will sell a lot of tickets at the box office. If this is the only goal the Panthers have in hand at the moment, they can succeed. For those who want to win? Well... uhhhhmmm... Maybe, maybe not.

Charley Casserly recently said "I could have 25 shots at drafting Cam Newton and I would pass on him 25 times."

Consider this well before you make a mistake.

Hallelujah! I am sure glad my Rams don't need a QB this year. It is just so damn good not to need a QB in the 2011 NFL Draft! I can hardly describe to you how good it is not to need a QB this time around. I tell you, Billy Devaney's 2010 call is looking better and better all the time.

Am I downing Jimmy Clausen's draft stock by design?

Had an interesting conversation with a buddy on mine named Colin yesterday. I have mentioned him a few times. He runs most of the Mann Theatres North of the 10 freeway in Los Angeles County. He is a 49er fan, from my old neighborhood in my home town of Fresno. It should also be noted that he wants the 49ers to take Tim Tebow. We are at loggerheads over this.

Colin accused me of intentionally downing Clausen's stock, by design, with the purpose of selecting the kid in the 2nd round. I was flabbergasted. On the face of it, the argument is silly for a lot of reasons.

1. I am not Billy Devaney. I don't get to pull the trigger on draft day.
2. Who the hell listens to me? Can I actually down someone's draft stock with my meager presence online?
3. Nothing horrifies me more than the notion of the Rams selecting Clausen. In fairness, Clausen probably does not like the idea of playing behind the Rams half-squat line either.
4. I sincerely hope that either the Seahawks or the 49ers will select Clausen at #14 or #16, thus squandering one of those surplus picks, and preventing our rivals from getting that much better.

At the moment, the scenario which plagues my worried mind the most is the following: What happens if Clausen falls out of the first round and is sitting on the board at #33 where the Rams select for the second time? My blood runs cold. Beads of sweat form on my brow. My blood pressure rises. My heart palpitates. I am in a state of terror at that point, if such a thing comes to pass. Pray the Seahawks or the 49ers will spare us from this horror.

Surely, a 2nd round pick spent on Clausen is a wasted pick. You may think I am wrong, but you are wrong. I have said many times that this kid is never going to make it in the NFL. He is not a Sunday quarterback. I have no idea in the world why you believe his skills will translate well into the NFL. I see no such prospect for the kid. Watching him for 3 years, I never even suspected that people like Mike Mayock, Bucky Brooks, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Todd McShay, or even Mel Kiper Jr. would give this kid a first round grade. He is a second (or third) day draft pick at the very best. I guess I should have known that Kiper would fuck up.

So why are the scouts fucking up? Let me tell you why:

1. Older scouts still consider Notre Dame to be a football factory. Far from suffering negative prejudice, as some foolishly suppose, Notre Dame kids enjoy a certain degree of unmerited favor.
2. Dynastanalingus: The Patriots were the last reigning dynasty in the NFL. That dynasty ended several years ago. Charlie Weis was a fairly undistinguished but noteworthy member of that dynasty... Before he went on to become a failed head coach at Notre Dame. He has a lot of unmerited favor because of this fact. Weis has campaigned for Clausen in a way he never did for Brady Quinn. Scouts have taken this seriously.
3. The Pro System Bias: Many scouts do not keep track of current events in the NFL. If they did, they would know the Spread (or at least a form of it) is now the most successful passing attack in the NFL. I guess nobody noticed that the Patriots have been using the Spread since 2007, and it spread around from there, if you will pardon the pun. I guess nobody noticed that both the Colts and Saints used a lot of it this year. The Spread has its origins in the NFL. The Bengals basically invented the thing in 1988 where Boomer Eisason ran out of Zebra Shotgun (and without a huddle) most of the game. It moved from there to Buffalo where they called it the K-Gun. In short, the advantage Clausen enjoys is really not much advantage at all. The disadvantage Spread kids suffer is not really that significant. The Spread is a conventional Pro System now.
4. Clausen has great statistics: In his junior year, maybe. So what? Tebow has awesome statistics through his entire career. According to the critics this does not make him Sunday material. The same has been said of Colt McCoy. If stats don't count for Tebow or McCoy, they don't count for Clausen either. Discard this point.

You need to ask yourself the following serious true/false question: Notre Dame + Dynastanalingus + Pro System Bias = NFL Franchise Quarterback? The answer is false. If this is your reasoning, you reason fallaciously. There are plenty of logical fallacies and factual errors in the case for Clausen.

Let us pray that Devaney is not snookered by the fallacious reasoning of the scouts. Let us pray that the Seahawks or the 49ers will ensure that the Rams do not select Clausen. We'll all be much happier that way.