Back to the combine! It's better than Christmas!

Last Thursday night's NFL Total Access was our first broadcast from combine in Indianapolis.  That is a significant significator.  It's the official start of the NFL draft season.  It's the unofficial start of the NFL business season also.

Love it!

I was pretty excited when I saw that the gang had been fully reassembled:  Mike Mayock, Charley Casserly, Charles Davis, Mike Lombardi, et al.  We'll be seeing Bucky Brooks and Corey Chavis soon also, I am sure.  I had heard rumors that Charley Casserly had signed exclusively with CBS Sports, and I was worried we wouldn't be seeing him on the NFL Network this year.  It is a good thing that rumor was false.  It wouldn't be the same without him.

It is so damn good to see you guys again!  You have no idea.  I was going to blog on this subject Thursday night, but I was a little preoccupied with prep for my next surgery on Feb 28, and a number of other mundane household subjects.

Sometimes I get a good feeling.  I get a feeling that I never, never, never had before.  I gotta feeling that this is going to be a really good draft.  The crop looks bountiful.  The crop looks good.  I am confident that we have some franchise changing players scattered across the top of this draft.  I am sure some of these kids will make it to the Hall of Fame.  It won't surprise me when they do.

Last year I complained bitterly about the poor quality of the seniors, the QBs and the offensive linemen.  I didn't like the Linebackers either.  Von Miller was the sole exception, and one of the three most exciting players in the Draft last year.

2011 was a poor draft year.  This is not the case in 2012.  This is a PH PHAT draft class.  The prospects look damn good to me thus far.  I am excited.

Speaking of Charley, he had the first Mock draft of the combine last night, and I think he pretty well nailed it.  Charley's list looked like this

1. Colts:  Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2. Browns (from Rams):  Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
3. Vikings:  Matt Kalil OLT USC 
4. Rams (from Browns): Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
5. Bucs:  Trent Richardson RB Alabama
6. Redskins:  Morris Claiborne CB LSU
7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples DE UNC
8. Dolphins:  Riley Reiff OT Iowa
9. Panthers:  Michael Brockers DT LSU
10. Bills:  Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama

Most of the others felt he nailed it too.  The most critical critique came from Coach Brian Billick, who said "Charley's got 9 out of the top 10 players, and 6 in the right spot, so he's only wrong by 4.  That's pretty good!"

I would say it's probably a little more accurate than that.   What are the points of disputation here?  I think they are as follows:

1. The Redskins won't take Morris Claiborne
2. The Bucs will take Morris Claiborne one spot earlier
3. The Bucs won't take Trent Richardson. They already have a damn good power-back in LeGarrette Blount.
4. The Redskins won't go quietly into the good night without a QB in this draft.  Rumor has it that they are adamant about getting Robert Griffin III.  Charley is presuming the Rams will chose to drop back just a couple of steps to gain some extra picks and still get our man (Justin Blackmon) a little bit cheaper.  I think that's a pretty good guess.  I can't see our team passing on some extra picks, but we won't want to lose Justin Blackmon either.  Most believe we would be reaching for him at the #2 pick, based on our critical need.  This is probably and accurate assessment of the situation.
5. It is questionable whether the Dolphins would take another tackle so high in the draft when they already have the best OLT in all of football.  Riley Reiff would be relegated to right tackle duties, and generally, you don't take a right tackle so high.  Charley has said this himself.  I do understand the logic, though. Riley Reiff would seem to be the perfect bookend companion and counterpart to Jake Long.  If you get Peyton Manning in Miami, you might want to make this pick.  It will be a very tempting choice if Manning comes to town.
6. Some would dispute the Bills taking Courtney Upshaw, but the more I think about it, the more I think it is the perfect fit.  The Bills play a 3-4 defense and they need a pass-rushing elephant linebacker.  There is none better in 2012 draft than Courtney Upshaw.  He is an ideal choice for their needs and scheme.  Call me foolish, call me irresponsible, call me a dreamer, but I think he would go great with Marcell Dareus.  Wait... hasn't that been tried?  Did that workout once before?
7. Many of us are still questioning whether Trent Richardson will wind up going so high in the draft.  It's not that he's unworthy of the pick, he is a very worthy dude, but rather the fact that the RB position is so deeply deprecated in the modern NFL.  Most GMs just don't believe that you take an RB so high in the draft.  As always, it will only take one GM to make it happen, tho.

I look forward to many more of these blog posts as the Draft season continues.

So how did we get the impression that Tebow does everything wrong?

I just finished up an argument online with naybobs on the subject of Tim Tebow. I was amazed at how overstated the critiques of Tim are. Some came out echoing the sentiments of the notorious Jaguar lineman who said "He can't throw." That was reason #1 and #5 on this swarthy moron's list of reasons why Tebow won't make it in the NFL. The folks on my message board went deep into the atrocities and travesties of his throwing motion and footwork. You see, from a Quarterback's point of view, Tim Tebow does everything wrong. This is why he'll never make it in the NFL.

So they said. Of course, these are all NFL QB coaches with Hall of Famer QBs on their resume. err... you mean you haven't done anything but watch football since High School?

Critics, you gotten down right stupid. The balanced people out there know it. Stop and consider the dramatic exaggerations of fact you are spewing. If it were true what you say, if Tebow does do everything wrong from the viewpoint of a real quarterback, how then do you explain any of the young man's many achievements? If his mechanics were utterly and fatally flawed, he never would have started or played in the first place at the 2 time national champion Florida Gator teams. If he did everything wrong, he would have been converted to another position, he would have ridden the bench, or his scholarship would have been revoked. There is simply no other possibility.

"Oh but the pro game is so different from the college game..."

It's not that different. It is categorically impossible for wretchedly flawed quarterback (who does it all wrong) to become one of the greatest college football players in history. It is not possible for him to prove himself in victory after victory in the ultra-hard SEC. He could never have passed with a career efficiency rating of 176. He could not have won the Heisman. He could not be the 4th ranked QB in this 2010 draft. He could not be the subject of 3rd round considerations around the league. {The 3rd round seems to be the new consensus on the NFL Network.} You would not have men like Brian Billick, Michael Lombardi, Charles Davis, and Mike Mayock warning you: Do not bet against Tebow in the NFL.

Rich Eisen has hinted strongly in the direction of my last paragraph several times on the NFL Network. The most clear case occurred when he interviewed Tebow at the NFL Combine. Eisen is careful to remain neutral on most political issues in his capacity as moderator on the NFL Network. Yet he has found a way to ask a few damning questions of the Tebow critics. Jamie Dukes has been peppered once or twice. Clearly, Eisen does not understand how a QB so tragically flawed as Tebow can do what Tebow has done.

The solution to the conundrum is simple: The critics vastly overstate their case to the point of error. Tebow is not nearly as mechanically flawed as they say he is, and he is even more athletic than we suspected. Only in the case of Tebow does a score of 22 on the Wonderlic equate to stupid. For Clausen, 23 is not stupid. Have you forgotten that Tebow averaged a 3.66 GPA at Florida? Do you remember that he was an academic all-american also? He does not come off as stupid to me.

Tebows achievements are a fact, not a theory. The analysis and conjectures of his mechanics involve a lot of opinions, and theory. In a philosophy of science class many years ago, I learned a brutal lesson that has stuck with me ever since: You can't trump a fact with a theory. When the facts collide with the theory, the theory dies, not the facts. Right now, people are twisting the facts to fit their theory that Tebow will fail in the NFL. Scientists don't do that. Good scientists twist the theory until it fits the facts. If your theories & analyses regarding Tebow were accurate, the concrete facts would not be possible. Frankly, your exaggerations are so exaggerated that you sound stupid, not just factually incorrect.

Why does any of this disagreement happen then? Why is it that Tebow has become this polarizing figure in scouting realms?

1. Scout CYA: Tebow has such a big name, that nearly every team in the league began this draft season with an interest in him. More than a few (like the Jags) were prepared to spend a 1st rounder on him. Tony Dungy said he would take Tebow ahead of every QB in this 2010 draft. The scouts know that Tebow has some mechanical problems that need work, and they also knew he would need to learn about Pro style offenses. Ergo, they could not stomach the idea of giving him any sort of grade that would get him near the first round. Early cautious statements were not enough to dampen enthusiasm for the kid, so the scouts increased the intensity of their critiques. It's snowballed from there. Remember: No scout wants to be seen as the guy who gives a development project a first round grade. This is why they do CYA.
2. Jealousy: There are a lot of unhappy and jealous people in this world. Being half Latin, I know something about this. Angry jealousy is something that Latino culture excels at. There are people in this world who get pissed off when they hear that you achieved something, or that something good has happened to you. Their first reaction is not to congratulate, but to get miserable and angry. They wish terrible things would happen to you... like knee injuries or concussions. The sports world, in its zero-sum format, is full of this kind of bitterness. Surely, given the huge record of success Tebow has had, there are many bitter and jealous souls out there who wish it was them. The sports media are full of jealous and bitter jocks who wish it could have been them.
3. Profligacy: Colin Cowherd is one of these guys. There are lounge lizards and playboys all over the sports media, and all over the world. I'm talking about dirty, slimy, scummy bastards who want to get in line for one of Tiger's mistresses and talk about it on the radio. We have debauched drug dealers, street hookers, and gang bangers all inside the NFL family. Many are downright belligerent when it comes to religion. They have much to fear if any of the Abraham religions are correct, but Christianity holds a special place in their ire. A guy like Tebow is not well received by these types. Watching Tebow succeed for the next 10-15 years is more than Colin Cowherd can take. They want the nightmare of a Christian witness to end now. Got bad news for you Colin: You got two others coming up in this draft also; including the #1 ranked prospect.

Consider the biases of the source, the next time you hear outrageously overheated and overstated critiques of Tim Tebow.