Right now everyone is buzzing about the fact that Broncos, Bengals, Cardinals and 49ers have all made phone calls suggesting their picks are for sale. According to Jason La Canfora these guys want to move down. You can read about it here.
Mine is not to question why, mine is but to profiteer on their dismay.
Folks, it looks like Billy Devaney will have no shortage of trading partners with whom he can work a deal. It looks like our picks may be in demand by teams higher up. We could get a nice reduction if pick-point costs if all these cats get into a reverse bidding war.
This is very, very good news. I am more confident now than ever that we will nail one of the top 2 prospects at the wide receiver position. I am fired up, optimistic, and expecting more good news.
Did you catch No Huddle on the NFL Network last night?
If you did, you saw not one but three former Rams talking about Wide Receivers. This was no co-inky-dink I am sure. The league knows that Ram-fans are more interested in the receiver class this year than any other fan-base in the nation. They knew damn well we would love to hear our guys take on the receiver class.
There was a pretty strong agreement there that A.J. is #1 on the board. Both Kurt and Torry said terribly flattering things about A.J. So did Moochie.
Only super-scout (and former Ram safety) Corey Chavous gave a small caveat in his endorsement. Although he endorsed A.J., he focused on the mental and physical toughness of Julio Jones. A.J. has missed some time with minor injuries (not much) while Julio has played straight through such trifling pain. Of course, this made everyone recall Julio's massive combine performance on a broken foot.
I don't know... maybe I am little too obsessed with A.J. Julio is the very best pieces of Anquan Bolden and Terrell Owens, with none of the negatives. That's one hell of a statement, but I think Julio can back it up. When you think about how physical and tough he is, we just can't go wrong with Julio Jones.
It's like I have said many times: Heads we win, tales we win. Both of these guys are winners. If we get either one of them we are fine.
For about 11 days now, rumors of a trade between the Rams and Cowboys have been circulating on various sports sites around the web. According to my best research guess, this rumor was first offered by John Lorge on 4/8/2011 on a BleacherReport.com mock draft. Since then it has been gathering steam in various and sundry quadrants.
Todd McShay, member of the world-wide eatter of shorts, added his voice to these rumors right around April 14/15, saying that his sources reported that discusions were taking place. Since then, many Cowboy sites have eagerly endorsed the deal. Many Ram fans have also embraced the news.
Strangely, famous St. Louis sports writer Howard Balzer doesn't really like the idea. He hasn't really qualified his objections.
Just what is the idea precisely? The Rams eMail the Cowboys the 14th and 78th picks in the draft and get the 9th pick in return. This puts the Rams immediately in front of the Redskins, meaning they can't fuck us out of Julio Jones. The Cowboys get to nail their favorite prospect (possibly Corey Liuget) at a much more reasonable price, and they get a 3rd rounder for their trouble.
On the surface, it is hard to find any fault in this deal. The Rams get what they need, and the Cowboys get what they need. Good deal for both sides.
It wouldn't be the first time Billy Devaney did a deal with Jerry Jones. We traded trash last year in a deal that was not particularly good for either side. We both went into that deal with eyes wide open. Neither side had unreasonable expectations about the quality of that deal. We were both unloading dead-weight.
While I applaud the effort at a deal, and while I would welcome Julio to the Rams roster, I am not sure this is exactly the right deal. The cost is not an issue. The price is reasonable. The issue is draft position. I am not sure this puts us high enough up the board to get what we want.
As I have said several times, I am not concerned about the Redskins selecting Julio Jones. WR is a deep 3rd place need for the Skins. This is Liar's Poker season, as Mike Lombardi calls it. All Redskin signals in Julio's direction are false. Believe me, they need a QB before they need to take a WR. They also need defense like a dying man in the desert needs water.
I am very concerned about teams higher than the Redskins, namely the Bengals and the Browns, selecting both A.J. Green and Julio Jones. We may reach #9 to no avail. This would suck. This would allow us a very nice choice of defensive players, but this is not what we had in mind when we traded up.
Despite the fact that the Cardinals are in our division, I would be talking deal with them. The Cardinals are the team most likely to get fucked out of everything they want in this draft.
Both Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert are trending very high right now. They could easily be gone before #5. I could see Miller going #2 or #3. I can see Gabbert going #1 or #4. If the Cardinals can't get what they want at #5, they might be primed for a deal to move down.
The #5 pick would have a ton of value for the Rams. I would give up the #14 and teh #47 pick to get it. This could potentially yeild either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. This is a very nice position to be in. We just might select the pick of the litter at #5. You know I would love that.
I would say that the number 5 slot is the one we want.
So, I was reading the NFL news this morning, and a fundamentally solid dude by the name of Steve Wyche informed us all that many NFL teams think that Blaine Gabbert is nothing special. You can read it for yourself here. Now, while Blaine is a very clean kid, and a very winsome likable guy, I am forced to agree... 100%.
Sorry world. I would much rather like the kid. There is nothing to dislike, on a personal basis. Understand this: If Andrew Luck were in this draft, you know who everybody would be clamoring for. You know Gabbert has risen because there is nobody else to occupy that vacuum at the top QB position. Nature abhors a vacuum.
As Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said last night on NFL Total Access, there are no Sam Bradfords in this year's draft. I was greatly heartened to discover that he sees things much as I do.
This brings us to point two of Wyche piece. He very strongly implies that Cam Newton could easily become the one memorable and hall of fame QB in this draft. I would add just one caveat: provided he doesn't bust outright.
Understand this: I would much rather like Cam Newton. Cam is a Taurus kid. He's an Earth brother. I love mobile, athletic kids, and I like the Spread. I do find him to be a winsome kid. I would greatly prefer to endorse him. Nevertheless, he is a 1 year wonder. As Mike Mayock is fond of saying: NFL Draft history has a landfill worth of 1 year wonder picks who went bust. This is a very risky kid. He is one of the riskiest picks in the entire draft, and that can be demonstrated with stone-cold actuarial statistics.
You pick him at your risk.
I want to state big picture one more time so draft mania doesn't sweep us out to sea its powerful riptide. The 2011 draft cannot hold a candle to the 2010 draft. This is strictly a run-of-the-mill, mediocre, average draft class. That may be giving these kids too much credit. 20 years from now, this may be a very forgettable draft class.
As Charlie Casserly has said, he can hardly remember the last time he has seen such a weak class of seniors. I would remind you that is true because we had such an amazing crop of juniors in last year's draft. I warned you that 2011 was going to be weak.
This is why I have a had a very difficult time getting motivated to write about this crop, especially for wider-public arenas such as BleacherReport.com. This just isn't an exciting class. It is difficult to get excited about the 2011 draft crop. It's like looking at bad porn. It just isn't exciting, although you think it should be.
This is why I continue to tell my fellow Ram-fans that the greatest good that could ever come out of this draft is a top-flight wide receiver. Even if we give up a sizable chunk of our draft to get A.J. Green or Julio Jones, it will be well worth the cost, and the best use of our ammo.
The only three guys who excite me are Von Miller, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green. All three of these guys are top-prospects, no matter what the year. They would have been high picks last year. They will be this year.
The rest of these first round guys are over-bought, over-priced, high risk, potential busts.
So, on today's Path to the Draft, Mike Mayock gave us a very interesting piece about B.J. Green and Julio Jones. You can see it here.
The upshot it this: The stocks are fluctuating, as draft stocks are wont to do. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that Julio Jones may fit the needs of both the Bengals and Browns better than B.J. Green. This according to the theory that you need big, physical receivers if you want to run the West Coast Offensive with authority.
Incidentally, both Ohio teams will be running the WCO this season. As we all know, Mike Holmgren hired Pat Shurmur explicitly for this purpose. Jay Gruden, brother of Jon Gruden, is the new offensive coordinator of the Bengals. Like his brother, he is a major advocate of the WCO.
To paraphrase Mike Mayock: B.J. Green is the more gifted natural receiver and play maker, but if the draft were held today, Julio Jones would go first.
Right now, the Bengals are prominently displaying just two young Wide Receivers on the front page of their website. Those would be Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin; the two biggest and most physical receivers in the 2011 draft.
President Holmgren is being much more careful not to telegraph his punch in any obvious position on the Browns' website. I think he is the smarter guy.
So what does this mean to Ram-fans everywhere? A flip-flop of receiver positions is no tragedy. Rather, it is an opportunity. It will be less expensive to move up and catch our falling star now. As you know, I'm pretty sweet on Green. I think we need to go Green. I believe he will have the much sweeter chemistry with Sam Bradford.
Mind you, I will still be happy if we somehow manage to kidnap Julio Jones, but I still think B.J. is a bigger game-changer, play-maker. I think he can turn the tide of battle when the breaks are beating our boys.
So, my friends at the Bleacher Report sent me a morning NFL update, as they always do, and this one contained about 50th Mock Draft I've seen this season. What did it indicate?
Well, there were two points of interest for me in this and numerous other mocks:
The 49ers select Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
The Rams select Julio Jones, WR Alabama
That has been one of the premier street-fights in NCAA football over the past three seasons. If the Mocks are correct. It will continue and intensify in the Pro ranks. We'll see these two beat on each other twice per year for God knows how long.
The reasoning is pretty simple in both cases. In Peterson's case, the reasoning goes like this:
Patrick Peterson is possibly the best athlete in the draft
Corners are undervalued, and never go that high.
He made a 9 on his Wonderlic, sliding him down a bit
The NFL is about to tamper with his value as a returner
Ergo Patrick Peterson slides to 7 where the 49ers cannot pass
In the case of Julio Jones, the reasoning goes like this:
Julio blew up the combine
Julio either broke his foot at the combine, or before the combine (accounts vary). While this makes his performance all the more amazing, he now has a medical red-flag. Minor though it may be, it will not be ignored.
Julio is the clear #2 WR behind B.J. Green
Julio dropped some passes in college. Shame, shame.
The top 10 is jammed with teams that need QBs and defense.
There is only one very likely spot in the top 10 where a WR will go (Cleveland)
Julio is likely to slide to 14 where the Rams have a desperate need.
Of course, there are exceptions to this pattern. Some think Peterson will go as high as #1. I think that is bloody unlikely; wishful thinking really. It's either QB or DT for the Panthers. Forget everything else. Nobody else is truly in the running.
Some think the Washington Redskins will select Julio Jones at the #10 spot. I think that is bloody unlikely; trade stimulus talk to be frank with you. I think some Redskin fans are signalling this to see if they can pimp the Rams for some picks.
Why do I say that about the Skins? I'll give you two reasons. Few, if any NFL insiders think the Skins will select an offensive player in this years draft. Shanahan has a serious political problem and liability on his hands. He inherited a good 4-3 defense. He arbitrarily blew up the ship and went 3-4 when he did not need too. His defense is now at the bottom of the barrel. This literally spoiled the honey moon. Shanahan created some very, very, very angry Redskin fans with this one move. If that defense doesn't get up off the carpet and show some life in 2011, Shanahan could be in some danger.
I will bet you dollars to donuts that the Redskins go defense in 2011. I'll bet they do it in a big way. As Mike Lombardi says, they have a 3-4 defense, and they do not have 3-4 personnel. This is the Redskins' most serious problem. It's even worse than their QB situation, which is now sitting at #2 slot. Only after this can we begin to discus the subject of a WR. Julio Jones at #10? Nope.
Can you imagine Patrick Peterson and Julio Jones in the NFC West, playing for bitter rivals? One thing is for sure: This would be good for business.
So I am wearing my Carson Palmer #9 Bengals Jersey today in honor of Carson Palmer's official retirement. If he hasn't already filed retirement papers with NFL HQ, it's coming soon, despite the looming lockout.
All sources on the NFL Network indicate that Carson is not bluffing. He has between $75-80 million in the bank, he does not have to pay any of those dollars back if he retires, and they are pretty sure he will never play in a Bengals uniform again. Those same sources indicate that the owner/president Mike Brown is not bluffing either. He will not deal Carson because it would set a bad precedent for the future. Brown says he wishes Carson well in his retirement, and plans to move on.
Just how far along does Mike Brown plan to move? The NFL Network reports that the Bengals are making plans to draft a QB in the 2011 draft. This doesn't necessarily mean they will use the #4 pick on QB, but I would bet you money they will in the end. Scratch Cincinnati off your list of landing spots for A.J. Green and Julio Jones. I doubt they are taking a WR with the #4 overall pick. They're going to take a QB; Blaine Gabbert I reckon.
Consider the Bengals draft in 2011. Prior to the crystallization of Carson Palmer's position, experts believed that the Bengals were the first team on the big-board extremely likely to (a) stand pat, and (b) select an offensive player, (c) select A.J. Green. This was the spot where A.J. Green was projected to go. Not now, baby.
You could argue that it was never the case in the first place. Why?
The Bengals have a poor passing game. Of this there can be no doubt. This has been the case for several years now. However, the Bengals have had a pretty good receiver corp, plus or minus 2009. They have a pretty good receiver corp as they enter the 2011 season. They have some Divas, but these are Divas with hands. If this be the case, why then do they have a poor passing game?
Most of us who watch football understand that Carson Palmer has been way off-target and in decline over these past several years. Palmer's accuracy, velocity, reads, and decision making have been questionable. The onus is on Carson Palmer, not the receivers. This makes Palmer's current off-season trade demand even more bizarre. Who wants him? I don't. I'm not trading for him.
Even in a magic world where there is no labor-strife with Carson Palmer, selecting A.J. Green rather than Blaine Gabbert would be a serious strategic blunder for the Bengals. Mike Brown needs to be thinking about his next-gen QB, not another receiver.
Over and against my QB theory is the question of whether Bengals can be expected to make a rational choice in the draft? Can they? I don't know. Sometimes Mike Brown makes very shrewd moves. Sometimes he doesn't. All signs do indicate that Mike Brown is preparing to select a QB in this draft.
The Bengals could select B.J. Green, or they might select Julio Jones. Both receivers are likely to be on the board when their number comes up. Neither pick is advisable. They should select Blaine Gabbert. Logically, this is the spot where Gabbert should go.
The NFL Network's very own Charlie Casserly broke news yesterday of vital interest to Ram-fans every where. He informed us that Julio Jones executed his amazing combine workout on a broken foot. The break is now the worse for wear.
Mark J. Miller of Yahoo Sports, confirmed that Julio needs surgery, and will have a screw inserted in his foot. This procedure carries an 8-week rehab time. The operation will pretty well nix any potential pro-day or private workouts for any team in the run up to the draft.
Remember, it's already March 1, and the NFL Draft is April 28. That's just about 8 weeks give or take a couple of days.
It will also place the medical flag on his file.
Personally, I don't give a damn about the medical flag. I am all the more impressed that Julio ran 4.39 and jumped 11'3". My jaw dropped to the floor when I heard and read these reports. I am pretty well settled that this is our guy. I still have some lingering questions about chemistry, though.
I know this is going to sound kinda funny, and I regret saying this, but this is great news for Ram fans. Julio can take solace in the probability that this may be the best thing that ever happened to him. If things work out as we suspect, he gets to go to a team with a hot young quarterback that's desperate for a #1 receiver. We also happen to have an OC who is regarded as hot property. The conditions are set for his success.
How does 100 receptions and 18 touchdowns in your rookie year sound to you, Julio?
Most sources say the Rams will select a wide receiver in the 2011 Draft.Most say that receiver will be Julio Jones, junior from Alabama.
Devaney willing, this shall be the case.Quite frankly, I consider the case for a WR a no-brainer.Devaney just invested the whole franchise in his golden child, Sam Bradford.So far Bradford has validated this decision.Devaney must now make decisions that support and validate that critical choice.He’s locked in.
Furthermore, you have the fact that Sam is currently operating with (what most experts rate as) the worst receiver corp in the entire league.Some qualify that statement with the tag “due to injuries in 2010”.There is no need for that qualification.It is misleading.Sam has the worst receiver corp in the entire league, put a period on it.It isn’t just due to injury.Only Danny Amendola has proven himself a true asset.We’ve seen enough of Denario Alexander to be interested in bringing him back.
Every other WR on the roster better row for his life.Your professional careers are on the line.
As you know, I’ve been bitching about our receiver corp since before the 2010 draft.The top two reasons I believed we could not draft a QB in 2010 were:
1.Our offensive line
2.Our receiver corp
As it happened, our line was far better than I thought they would be.Not quite as good as I hoped, but far better than expected.If that sounds like a contradiction, just understand there is a wide gap between the best case and the worst case scenarios.The Ram OL was somewhere in-between, but leaning towards the happy side of the spectrum.
Unfortunately, our receivers were even worse than expected.It is astounding that Sam finished well as he did throwing to this crew.His good performance, in spite of the receiver corp, is probably the biggest single reason we all have confidence in him now.Just imagine what this kid will be like if we get him a deadly receiver.We all know and understand that our receiver corp is currently placing confining limits on Sam’s growth.This bottle-neck has to be broken if our team is to improve.
As I said, it’s a no-brainer.
Right now, we’re all on the same sheet of music, and feels pretty good.Last year, there was absolutely no consensus about what we aught to do with the top pick.There was a hell of a lot of bickering in that setting.I am glad we’re all together on this one.
The Situation
As you know, the Rams will be selecting #14 overall in the 2011 draft.This is not a bad position to begin our quest for a deadly receiver.Indeed, most sources say that Julio Jones will be there for us.Only one man is rated higher than Julio Jones, and that fellow is A.J. Green, one of the super-luminaries of this draft.Based on what we saw at the combine, the rankings may change.
If we get Julio Jones, we aught to be plenty happy.To some extend I am.However, it’s tough to get excited when you are drafting #14.A lot of things can happen in those first 13 picks.It is very difficult to guess what might be on the board when our actual number comes up.Nevertheless, we are all going to play the guessing game for the next 60 days, trying to get ready.
Thinking about the two candidates
I have had my eyes on Julio for some three years now.Understand that when I watch college football, I am doing so as a scout.I try to figure out who the prospects are, and who might make my team better.I have been wondering whether Julio might become a Ram, and possibly even the next great Ram receiver.Frankly, throughout his entire college career at Alabama, I was hopeful that we would draft Julio.
It’s a very funny thing…even as the fantasy seems set to become a reality, I am having some second thoughts.A.J. has definitely caught my eye.I am also concerned about who might have the best teamwork and chemistry with Sam.For some reason I can’t shake, I seem to think that fellow is A.J.
Perhaps we should begin with a serious comparison of these two young men.
Julio Jones
Let’s go in reverse order, and start with Julio Jones, the candidate most likely to be our pick in 2011.According to his Wikipedia page, Julio is a 2/3/1989 Aquarius, who just turned 22 years of age. He stands 6-4 and weighs in at 220 pounds.More accurate numbers may be released from the NFL combine soon.
He was an immediate and three-year starter and standout at Alabama.The Tide won a national championship during his watch.He decided to leave school a year early to enter this 2011 draft. Julio was one of the top performers at the combine, out-performing his draft-rival from Georgia, A.J. Green. Julio ran the 40 in 4.43 and 4.39 seconds.He nailed a 11'03" broad jump, and also posted a 38.5 inch vertical leap. In short, you see all the size, speed and vertical leaping ability you want in a receiver.
Alabama was a running team during Julio’s time in college.He did not see the football nearly as much as he would have at a place like Oklahoma or Florida.In my mind, he made the most out of his limited number of touches by physically dominating the corner opposite him.He is an extremely physical receiver who blasts through press coverage, shakes off and runs over defenders.
Physically he reminds me of two NFL receivers.His body type is very much like that of Terrell Owens.The way he runs after the catch is very much like Anquan Bolden.If you can imagine Terrell Owens running after the catch with an attitude like Anquan Bolden, you can visualize what Julio Jones looks like in action.Incidentally, Julio has not had any ‘personality’ incidents during this time at Alabama.He has shown no signs of being a WR-Diva.
The big knock on Julio is that he doesn’t use his hands to catch the ball as consistently as he should.They call him a body-catcher, and they blame this ‘bad-technique’ for a series of key drops he made as a junior.I have to say that I did not see those drops.I would like to have a look at that game film.Personally, I have always felt that the knock on body-catchers is over-rated.Lynn Swann never caught a pass with his hands in his entire life.Swann is an HOF guy.Issac Bruce, our all-time leading receiver, caught alternately with his hands or body, which ever seemed favorable in the situation.
Critics also say Julio is a build-up speed guy.What does that mean?Translation: he doesn’t have fantastic acceleration off the line.This critique may be debunked and inoperative after these combine results.
What do I think?I never saw a single down in Julio’s career where the corners didn’t try to jam the hell out of him on the line of scrimmage.They rode him like a bronco every step of the way through that initial 5 yards.Given this sort of relentless press coverage, I am not sure how you can judge a man’s snap acceleration correctly.
A.J. Green
According to his Wikipedia page, A.J. Green is a 7/31/1988 Leo who is also 22 years old, albeit 5 months older than Julio Jones.He stand 6-3 5/8th, just a hair shorter than Julio Jones.He weighs in at 211 pounds, 9 pounds lighter than Julio Jones.Once again, more accurate numbers may be released from the combine.
Like Julio, A.J. was an immediate and three year starter for the Georgia Bulldogs.He has a few less games under his belt due to a 4 game NCAA suspension in 2010.Why he suspended?He sold his 2009 Independence Bowl jersey to former UNC defensive back Chris Hawkins.The NCAA designated Hawkins as an agent, or someone who markets amateur athletes.Despite playing in fewer games, Green has much larger game numbers than Jones.This is primarily a function of the offense Georgia runs.
A.J. Green did not have a fantastic day at the combine.I am not sure you can describe it as ‘poor’ the way some sources have, but it was not what he wanted.Green ran the 40 in 4.48 and 4.51, considerably slower than Julio Jones.He posted a vertical leap of 34.5 inches, four inches less than Julio.Most surprisingly, Green posted a broad jump of 10 feet and 2 inches.This is 13 inches less than Julio Jones.According to the rumor, did out-bench Julio 18-17.
The speed result was particularly disappointing for A.J. Green.Prior to the combine, it was widely thought that Green had a sizable speed advantage over Julio Jones.Green’s 40 time just erased that advantage.The measurables say Jones is faster.
So riddle me this Batman:If A.J. is a little shorter, slower, lighter, less springy than Julio, why is he ranked higher?Because he can bench one more rep?
Nope, that’s not it at all.A.J.’s game film is what’s done it for him.The kid has a preposterous highlight reel.He’s made some insane catches.I’ve seen him make one-handers in the end-zone that dropped my jaw to the floor.He also uses his hands just about perfectly, which is something that the critics look for.He may be a tad smaller, less fast, and less springy, but he can flat-out play, and that’s enough.
My thoughts
If you wonder why I would have any second thoughts about Julio after seeing the combine results, I can summarize it all in just one word:Chemistry.I have very little doubt that Julio will be great receiver in the NFL.I just wonder what kind of chemistry he would have with Sam Bradford.
Sam is our guy.He’s been wearing the Ram uniform for a year now.We need to get the receiver who compliments him best.If we are going to spend a resource as precious as that 1st round choice, we better get the guy who compliments Sam best.
For some reason, I have a difficult time shaking the notion Sam might have better chemistry with A.J. than Julio.If this weren’t a fucking lock-out year, Devaney could arrange interviews with Julio and A.J. where Sam would throw to them.We could study how they perform together, and how they communicate.Regrettably, this is a fucking lock-out year, and Devaney can’t have any contact with Bradford once it’s on.
That officially sucks.Believe me, I’m pissed.The league is fucking around with one of the most important decisions the Rams will make in the next several years.We need to get this shit ironed-out fast so the draft can proceed naturally.
Conclusions
Many are saying the A.J. Green vs. Julio Jones just might be the most fascinating position battle in the 2011 draft.Before the combine, it seemed that Green had it salted away.After the combine, it’s game-on baby.These two are going to be jockeying for position all the way to the finish line.I am sure there will be plenty of controversy and debate over which of these two fine players is better.
With the 14th pick, we cannot dictate who we get.Indeed, if Julio rises on the board, and A.J. doesn’t drop much, we might not get either of them.This once again, this suggests to me that we need to be thinking about moving up the board in 2011, not moving down the board.We need to secure one of these two guys.
At this point in the game, I just trying to relax about the question.If we can get one of these two guys, that should be good enough for us.For the moment, let’s say heads we win, tails we win.
