The Late 1990's Denver Broncos: The Water Boy Redux

It is now time to continue my synastry analysis of the greatest teams in NFL History. Let's continue with the Denver Broncos of 1997-1998.

But first, a quick review of general synastry principles.

1. There are 12 signs in the Zodiac: Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces.
2. It all starts with Aries at the Spring Equinox. It all ends with Pisces at the Spring Equinox.
3. There are four elements in the Zodiac: Fire, Earth, Air, and Water.
4. They follow precisely that sequence around the circular orbit: Fire, Earth, Air, and Water.
5. The sequence of elements repeat themselves three times through the 12 signs.
6. There are, therefore, three signs of each element.
7. There are three Fire Signs: Aries, Leo and Sagittarius.
8. There are three Earth Signs: Taurus, Virgo and Capricorn.
9. There are three Air Signs: Gemini, Libra, and Aquarius.
10. There are three Water signs: Cancer, Scorpio and Pisces.
11. You are most compatible with members of your element. Fire is most compatible with Fire, Earth with Earth, etc.
12. Your are highly compatible with members of your companion element. Earth and Water are companion elements. Fire and Air are companion elements.
13. Some elements mix with difficulty. Fire and Earth can blend with some difficulty, making a hard ceramic. Air and Water can blend with difficulty, forming a bubbly foam.
14. Allegedly, Earth is totally incompatible with Air, although you can't prove it using me as an example. Allegedly, Fire is totally incompatible with Water. I buy this doctrine.

The notion under-girding this series is that great teams are all about chemistry, comradeship, and brotherhood. In the final analysis, the players win the game for each other. The reason why an injured man rises to fight again when his body says "no" is because he can bear to let his brothers down. If you got a bunch of guys who are as tight as brothers, they will sacrifice for each other, and all things are possible. If teammates don't like each other and don't get along, you don't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning the Super Bowl.

Does anyone remember the Bickering Bills?

With that said, let's consider the back-to-back champion Denver Broncos. The 1997-1998 Broncos were fundamentally a Water team at the skill positions. John Elway, and Shannon Sharpe are both Cancers. Terrell Davis and Howard Griffith are both Scorpios. Rod Smith is a Taurus, just like Shannon's brother Sterling. Incidentally, Taurus is an Earth sign, and goes great with both Cancer and Scorpio.

Then we have our one typical exception and statistical outlier: Ed McCaffrey, who is a Leo. This is not as bad as it may seem. The only guy Ed had to be compatible with is John Elway. It just so happens that Cancer and Leo are side-by-side in the Zodiac; a pair of summer-time signs that treat each other cordially in the neighborhood. Cancers frequently have a little Leo in them. Leos frequently have a little Cancer in them.

John has some Leo in him, and Ed has a bunch of Virgo in his chart. They are more compatible than you might think. In fact they just happen to have a problem-solving & communication score of 174 together. Anything over 150 is considered extremely strong.

The Bronco line was mostly Air and Fire, noted for being compatible, with one outier: Tom Nalen, who is a Taurus. Of course, this only made Nalen more compatible with John Elway. Once again, this suggests the line is a discrete unit, somewhat separate from the skill positions.

Of course, Mike Shanahan is a Virgo, well noted for being compatible with a bunch of Water guys, a couple of Tauri, and Leo. He went on to have some success with a Taurus QB named Jay Cutler. Shanahan had no success with Sagittarius Donovan McNab last year. That was a bad train-wreck. Believe me when I tell you I know how tenuous Virgo-Sagittarius relations can be. Coach Shanahan had a small bit of success last season with with a Taurus kid named Rex Grossman. Rumor has it he might roll with John Beck this season. He is a Leo cusping on Virgo. What a co-inky-dinky...

Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak, interestingly enough, is a Leo. He got along great with John Elway and Shannon Sharpe. These days, he gets along great with a pair of Cancers named Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. We summer-time boys seem to get along pretty well together.

Although not the best elementally aligned football team, you can see that the Broncos were very well aligned with one another. It's pretty clear from the America's Game documentary series that these guys fought like hell for each other. This team liked each other, they respected their leaders, and they had great chemistry.

I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver

This morning the Internet is buzzing like hell with news of the Redskins negotiating with the Broncos for that #2 overall-pick in Thursday's draft. Some are saying the Redskins' move was premature. On the contrary, the timing is perfect. We are presently only about about 30 hours from gavel-time. It's time to go, buddy. You better be negotiating right now.

For the Redskins, the move is perfectly understandable. It's pricey as hell, but it is perfectly understandable. Shanahan's WCO doesn't work without a smart AND mobile quarterback. Say what you will about his very lack-luster college career, but Gabbert is very smart and very mobile. He fits the suit very well. Sometimes you just have to pay what it costs.

If you want that Bob Kramer knife, you're going to have to pay through the nose to get it.

The McNabb story in Washington has ended tragically, and so will the Shanahan story if he doesn't bust a move. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Shanahan needs defense like a dying man in the desert needs water. He may be planing to do what I hope my Rams will do: Fix the defense in free-agency.

I do want to crow for a moment, though. I told you the Redskins weren't taking a receiver. All the stuff about Julio Jones was horse shit from the beginning. The only thing worse than a QB with no WR is a WR with no QB. Just ask the Cardinals.

As Michael Lombardi has said many times, there is a certain order of operations you go through in building an offensive unit. The order of operations is important. Go out-of-order you will get bad results. Here is that order.

1. Offensive line
2. Quarterback
3. Receivers

You need the line first, or you will have a David Carr situation. You need the Quarterback next. There is no point in tying up picks and money in a receiver until you have a trigger man who can make him work. I have excluded the RB positions because this is increasingly a commodity position handled by a committee.

On the other half of the equation, I don't think I like this deal if I am the Broncos. I know the defense needs a full scale rebuild. I know this is a defense-rich draft. I know you want several of these players, not one. I know you feel you can get several by doing this deal.

Nevertheless, Marcell Darius and Von Miller are two of the crown jewels in this draft. I think I would probably take Von Miller and see if I could arrange Phil Taylor from Baylor later on. I would reckon this as the best way to rebuild my defense. You might also take Darius and Akeem Ayers.

We'll see if the Redskins make it worth John Elway's trouble. Shanahan and Elway certainly have deep-ties. I am sure there is enough personal good-will there to get the deal done, if the figures are right.

The Mocks of 2011 suggest a great rivalry

So, my friends at the Bleacher Report sent me a morning NFL update, as they always do, and this one contained about 50th Mock Draft I've seen this season. What did it indicate?

Well, there were two points of interest for me in this and numerous other mocks:

1. The 49ers select Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
2. The Rams select Julio Jones, WR Alabama

That has been one of the premier street-fights in NCAA football over the past three seasons. If the Mocks are correct. It will continue and intensify in the Pro ranks. We'll see these two beat on each other twice per year for God knows how long.

The reasoning is pretty simple in both cases. In Peterson's case, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Patrick Peterson is possibly the best athlete in the draft
2. Corners are undervalued, and never go that high.
3. He made a 9 on his Wonderlic, sliding him down a bit
4. The NFL is about to tamper with his value as a returner
5. Ergo Patrick Peterson slides to 7 where the 49ers cannot pass

In the case of Julio Jones, the reasoning goes like this:

1. Julio blew up the combine
2. Julio either broke his foot at the combine, or before the combine (accounts vary). While this makes his performance all the more amazing, he now has a medical red-flag. Minor though it may be, it will not be ignored.
3. Julio is the clear #2 WR behind B.J. Green
4. Julio dropped some passes in college. Shame, shame.
5. The top 10 is jammed with teams that need QBs and defense.
6. There is only one very likely spot in the top 10 where a WR will go (Cleveland)
7. Julio is likely to slide to 14 where the Rams have a desperate need.

Of course, there are exceptions to this pattern. Some think Peterson will go as high as #1. I think that is bloody unlikely; wishful thinking really. It's either QB or DT for the Panthers. Forget everything else. Nobody else is truly in the running.

Some think the Washington Redskins will select Julio Jones at the #10 spot. I think that is bloody unlikely; trade stimulus talk to be frank with you. I think some Redskin fans are signalling this to see if they can pimp the Rams for some picks.

Why do I say that about the Skins? I'll give you two reasons. Few, if any NFL insiders think the Skins will select an offensive player in this years draft. Shanahan has a serious political problem and liability on his hands. He inherited a good 4-3 defense. He arbitrarily blew up the ship and went 3-4 when he did not need too. His defense is now at the bottom of the barrel. This literally spoiled the honey moon. Shanahan created some very, very, very angry Redskin fans with this one move. If that defense doesn't get up off the carpet and show some life in 2011, Shanahan could be in some danger.

I will bet you dollars to donuts that the Redskins go defense in 2011. I'll bet they do it in a big way. As Mike Lombardi says, they have a 3-4 defense, and they do not have 3-4 personnel. This is the Redskins' most serious problem. It's even worse than their QB situation, which is now sitting at #2 slot. Only after this can we begin to discus the subject of a WR. Julio Jones at #10? Nope.

Can you imagine Patrick Peterson and Julio Jones in the NFC West, playing for bitter rivals? One thing is for sure: This would be good for business.

I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb

The shocker has happened. Philly traded McNabb to the Redskins on Easter Sunday 2010 for the #37 pick in the 2010 draft, a #3 in the 2011, and a conditional #4 in 2011. The conditional pick can rise if the Redskins win more games, posting a better record. Most Philly fans seem glad that the McNabb era is over. They are also shocked that the trade happened inside the division. They seem to be happy that the Kolb era will commence now. They are unhappy that they will face McNabb in a Redskin uniform twice per year for the indefinite future.

CBS Draft Central was the first to publish the opinion that the real looser in this trade is Jimmy Clausen, not Jason Campbell. Campbell was expected to go elsewhere this season. This is only a confirmation of that notion. Clausen was thought, by some, to be the guy Shanahan would develop for the Redskin's future. It is pretty damn clear that Clausen slides past #4 in this season's draft. I believe it is extremely unlikely that Holmgren will select him. Ergo his very first possible landing point is at #9 with the Buffalo Bills.

Pray for the Bills' sake that the GM does not try to take the cheese out of the mouse trap.

This brings us to the Redskins feelings about this. Many D.C. fans are expressing subdued jubilation. They believe the Eagles, an arch nemesis and tormentor, will now spiral downward. A city which is 90% Black is happy to receive (arguably) the greatest Black QB ever. We should leave some room here for Hall of Famer Warren Moon.

On the other hand, Redskin fans are all-to-familiar with the pattern of grabbing over-priced washed-up veterans who under-perform when Dan Snyder gives them fat contracts. This is not just an artifact/relic of George Allen and the 1970s skins. It is a persistent pattern that continues to this day. Many of these fans had already pinned their hopes on Jimmy Clausen as their QB of the future. Shanahan is known as one of those few men in league qualified to evaluate and coach the QB. They hopped he would use his powers to groom Clausen into the Redskins' franchise QB for the next 10+ seasons.

This brings us to Shanahan. Nobody believes the Skins are taking a QB with that massive #4 pick in the 2010 Draft. Nobody believes the Skins are going to do a deal with the Rams for the #1 pick. That ship has sailed out of the harbor. Can anyone explain to me why Shanahan would want to pass on a QB in this year's draft?

• It is possible that he was out-voted. Bruce Allen and Synder could have pushed this deal through.
• It is possible that he felt Bradford was unobtainable. The Rams will take him or demand too much for him.
• It is possible he was concerned about Bradford's durability. The Redskins allowed more sacks (46) than the Ram (44) in 2009. That is a sad, sad commentary. It should be noted that Green Bay allowed the greatest number of sacks (51) in 2009.
• It is possible that Shanahan just didn't see what he wanted in Clausen.

As I mentioned in title line: I can't get Bradford, and I don't want Clausen. I'll take McNabb. Maybe this is Shanahan's decision tree? Maybe this was the read progression?

There we have it again folks. Shanahan and Holmgren are arguably the best QB developers in the league right now. There are a few others. Andy Reid and Mike Martz are two more. I seriously doubt Charley Weis is one of them. What do we say about Clausen now that Shanahan and Holmgren have apparently voted no-confidence in the kid?

Maybe I am right and maybe Kiper Jr. is wrong? Maybe? Maybe McShay is right and Kiper is wrong? Maybe?

Watch for Shanahan and Holmgren to go after Jevan Snead. The kid is going to be cheap, and he has real potential.

Denver is the new Wallstreet. The Broncos the new AIG.

The Denver Broncos are experiencing a meltdown of epic proportions. If there were any chance of them being sold in pieces to the rest of league, I would say that the Denver Broncos rivals AIG as the most dysfunctional corporation in the nation. Since there is no chance of the Broncos folding or being dismembered, I just can't make the AIG comparison... as much as I would like too.

Jaygate: just what the fuck happened?

A few weeks ago, FAF (Free Agency Friday) hit, and the New England Patriots traded Matt Castle to the Kansas City Chiefs. Looked fine on paper. Then all of sudden there is all this gossip circulating around the league from sources inside the Vikings', Chiefs', and Lions' headquarters that the Broncos were shopping Jay Cutler around, trying to trade him out of the Conference and Division. Why? To acquire draft picks. Why? Some of these picks were to be used to acquire Matt Castle, formerly of New England. Some were to be used to rebuilt Denver's sagging defense.

The deal never happened. Why?

Rumor has it that the Broncos were demanding too much of the Lions, who would have loved to build around Culter. Both parties would have liked to do the trade. They just couldn't agree to terms. More specifically, the Broncos wanted both of the Lions' 1st round picks, but eventually fell back to the #1 pick overall, and the 2nd round pick. Neither package was acceptible to the Lions. They felt the first overall pick was more than sufficient gold to seal the deal. Denver did not feel the #1 pick in the draft was good enough for Cutler. Then the Patriots completed their trade with the Chiefs, terminating the affair.

When this deal fell through, the Broncos became increasingly desperate, contacting the Vikings first, and then the Chiefs. This is the first clear-cut sign that the organization knew it had fucked up, and the relationship with Cutler was compromised.

Then the leaks started to flow. Sources inside the Broncos organization--loyal to Cutler--told Jay that the organization had been shopping him around, and trying to acquire Matt Castle. Jay Cutler, known for his passionate temper, hit the fucking roof. Rumor has it that he and his agent had a number of red-hot phone conversations with Pat Bowlen & McDaniels.

This is where the fun begins. Bowlen & McDaniels denied everything. They claimed the Chiefs & Lions contacted them with offers, inquiring if Cutler would be available if the price is right. Bowlen & McDaniels insisted that they told all would-be-bidders to fuck off. Cutler was never on the market, period.

That would have been fine except for the fact that Vikings, Lions, Patriots and Chiefs all broke THE MAN CODE. They confirmed Denver's infidelity to Cutler. They each confirmed that they had been contacted by the Broncos FIRST. None of them ever expected Cutler to be on the block. The whole affair might have died with a well-placed lie. Alas, such was not to be. That was when Cutler really got pissed. First, Bowlen fires his coach and mentor Mike Shanahan, then McDaniels give him a vote of no-confidence by trying to deal him, then they both lie to his face and try to cover it up.

Jay is now declaring that his days in Denver are over. His relationship with the Broncos is irrepairably busted, and he wants to be traded.

So who is right in all this?

I think I speak for the majority of NFL fans--not Bronco fans--when I say that I am absolutely flabbergasted by what has happened in Denver lately. This is almost inconceivable. If a gypsy woman had stared into a Crystal Ball and prophesied this, I would have laughed like hell at her and declared her a fraud.

Let's start with the facts: The Broncos had Mike Shanahan a proven offensive genius who had led them to back-to-back Super Bowl victories. They had Jay Cutler, the man touted as the most promising young Quarterback in the league. He is already a Pro-Bowl QB. Just a little more proof, and everybody was prepared to accept Cutler as an elite NFL QB. The Broncos had the #2 ranked offense in the league by points. I can tell you that they had a smooth rhythm moving down the field which was a true pleasure to behold. They looked like an offensive Juggernaut coming to life last year. Cutler looked totally confident and in control almost all the time. Yes, he had a few bone headed plays, but didn't Bart Starr, Bradshaw and Montana have some stupid plays early in their careers also? Hell yes they did!

Then it kinda collapses. The Broncos don't make the playoffs. The next thing we know, Mike Shanahan has been fired. He has a teary news conference where he declares that Pat Bowlen is still his best friend. Jesus... Speaking as a Ram fan, I was utterly shocked. I wanted to sign Mike Shanahan immediately.

Then Bowlen announces that he has hired Josh McDaniels, OC of the Patriots. Jesus... You fired Mike Shanahan to sign this esquinkly little 32 year old shit with absolutely no credentials to his name? You want Josh McDaniels, not Mike Shanahan? SHIT! Speaking as a Ram fan, I was pretty fucking surprised. I was wondering what the hell was going on in Denver. I thought for sure Bowlen would select a defensive coordinator like Steve Spagnolo, now the chief of my team, to be their head coach. Maybe we screwed them. Maybe they screwed themselves. What ever the case, I was sure that the new administration would leave the offense alone and work exclusively on fixing the defense.

Now Pat Bowlen, one of the most respected owners in the league, nay one of the pillars of the league, allowed this no-name dude McDaniels to break the one working part of his football team? OMG WTF? Unbelievable...

The majority of Hall of Famers on the NFL Network are pretty horrified by these events. They can't believe Denver would give up on Cutler. They have no idea what the hell Bowlen & McDaniels were thinking. Everybody is scandalized.

What every happened to if ain't broke don't fix it?

I really feel bad for the people of Denver. The Broncos were on the rise. I was certain they would win the division and be a contender in 2009. I believe the Chargers are vulnerable, and there is nobody else in the West. Oh yeah... I forgot that the Raiders and Chiefs are there... but that is still nobody. Now McDaniels has done it. He has effectively wrecked the team. He has set them back 5 or 6 years. I think they are toast in 2009.

So how would I fix it?

There are only two courses of action if you are Bowlen:

1. Complete a trade with Detroit for the #1 pick.
2. Rollback all the changes made since the season ended.

If you take option #1, expect the Lions to hold you over a barrel. They know you are despirate now. By taking this option, you announce your only real hope is to acquire Matthew Stafford... and pray he is as good as Cutler... eventually. Detroit can stick a gun in your ribs and demand that you give them a sweetener. Maybe one of your two WR. That would hurt like hell.

How the hell can Bowlen execute option #2? It is very simple:

1. Fire McDaniels
2. Go on bended knee to Shanahan (who claims you and he are BFFLs) and ask him to return.
3. Make him responsible for smoothing things over with Cutler
4. Publicly announce that you fucked up, and are rolling back changes.

Speaking as a computer programmer, I can tell you that we do option #2. When we accidentally write bad stored procedure which garbles data and messes up the DB, we rollback. We put the old data back in place. We put the old code back in place. We clean up the mess. We have to publicly announce that we fucked up. We restore the system. It hurts. Nobody likes to fuck up. Nobody likes to eat crow. Nobody likes to clean up the mess. Yet this is the only way to keep the organization healthy and on track. We gotta fix it.

Both are very difficult paths to trek. I really pity Bowlen. Never give a young fucktard this much control again. That was a serious error. I think the people of Denver will cheer option #2. If you are headed in the wrong direction, turn around