Interesting news about our top two receivers in the 2011 draft

So, on today's Path to the Draft, Mike Mayock gave us a very interesting piece about B.J. Green and Julio Jones. You can see it here.

The upshot it this: The stocks are fluctuating, as draft stocks are wont to do. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that Julio Jones may fit the needs of both the Bengals and Browns better than B.J. Green. This according to the theory that you need big, physical receivers if you want to run the West Coast Offensive with authority.

Incidentally, both Ohio teams will be running the WCO this season. As we all know, Mike Holmgren hired Pat Shurmur explicitly for this purpose. Jay Gruden, brother of Jon Gruden, is the new offensive coordinator of the Bengals. Like his brother, he is a major advocate of the WCO.

To paraphrase Mike Mayock: B.J. Green is the more gifted natural receiver and play maker, but if the draft were held today, Julio Jones would go first.

Right now, the Bengals are prominently displaying just two young Wide Receivers on the front page of their website. Those would be Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin; the two biggest and most physical receivers in the 2011 draft.

President Holmgren is being much more careful not to telegraph his punch in any obvious position on the Browns' website. I think he is the smarter guy.

So what does this mean to Ram-fans everywhere? A flip-flop of receiver positions is no tragedy. Rather, it is an opportunity. It will be less expensive to move up and catch our falling star now. As you know, I'm pretty sweet on Green. I think we need to go Green. I believe he will have the much sweeter chemistry with Sam Bradford.

Mind you, I will still be happy if we somehow manage to kidnap Julio Jones, but I still think B.J. is a bigger game-changer, play-maker. I think he can turn the tide of battle when the breaks are beating our boys.

The Sophomore Jinx?

A lot is being written right now about whether or not Sam Bradford will experiance the sophmore jinx in 2011. I'll give you my short answer and I will give you a longer answer. The short answer is: It can't be avoided, but it won't be as bad you think, and it probably won't last long. Now I will give you a longer answer unpacking that conclusion.

There are a number of factors conspiring against Sam's 2nd tour of duty in the league:

1. Pat Shurmur has moved on to Cleveland
2. Josh McDaniels in the new Ram-OC.
3. This means moving from the West Coast Offense to the NFL Spread.
4. There will be new rookie receivers to play with.
5. There will be new offensive guards to play with.
6. We have this little labor strife over the collective bargaining agreement going on right now. As a result of this fact, here may not be any OTAs or Mini-Camp. If so, Josh McDaniels will have precious little time to install his new system.
7. If worse comes to worse, and the lockout wears long, it could delete all of training camp and the first few games.

As far as the Rams' specific problems are concerned, I don't think things are nearly as bad as some portray them. When people say that there is a great deal of difference between the WCO and the NFL Spread, they are quite correct. Still, what is the value and importance of that fact? I think it is fairly low. I don't think this is particularly important point.

Sam was in the WCO for exactly one year. He was in the Spread for most of his high school and college years. The pertinent question is this: How different is Josh McDaniel's Spread from Bob Stoops's Spread? In truth, I do not know the answer to that question. I suppose assesments would vary. I can only tell you that they look somewhat similar to me. I can't tell you how much difference there is in language and terminology under the hood, in the playbook.

Until proven otherwise, I still believe that moving to Josh McDaniels's Spread will be more like a home-comming at Oklahoma than learning an entirely new system. In 2010, Sam was learning an entirely different system. In 2011, I don't think so. I think he'll be learning a slightly different variety of a system he already knows well.

However, all our vets will be learning a new system... That could spell some trouble. The brand new receivers and guards will create some initial problems in timing and cohesian, but if we chose our people well, this should pay big dividends a few games down the road in 2011... assuming there is a 2011.

There are adverse circumstances facing Sam, the whole roster, and everyone else in the league this year. We could throw in the media people also. Everyone is in danger of being compromised by the labor strife and lockout looming on the horizon. That's why both parties involved better compromise soon and sign that new CBA.

Andrew Brandt of the National Football Post seems to believe these problems are not so bad as I think they are. He claims that negotiations always saunter along at a lazy pace until the drop-dead date looms large. When the deal has to get done, it gets done. He says he was a party to a hundred different negotiations and the deal never got done until it had to be finished. That's just how the game is played. He seems to believe that we will have a new CBA in March.

Now on the other hand, you have the absolutely fabulous "in a state of war" rhetoric thrown around by DeMaurice Smith, the boss of the player's union. This sort of rhetoric only seems to strengthen rumors I heard early-on about DeMaurice Smith being a wrecklass adventurer on quest to prove himself stronger than Upshaw in fiery crucible of battle. Right now, DeMaurice Smith does resemble those remarks. He's also making Roger Goodell look pretty damn good. Trust me, you don't want to do that to your opponent.

Let us hope they will resolve all this bullshit so the millionairs can contine being paid by the billionaires.

Anyway... I hope I have made my point. Given the confligration of events coming together in 2011, a sophmore slump of some kind probably cannot be avoid. The worst factors in this function aren't even under Rams' control. These things have to be settled at the league level.

I also don't expect the sophmore slump to be that bad, or last that long. A move to the NFL spread may hurt offensive cohesian in the first couple of weeks, but it will help Sam and the whole offense perform a lot better down the road.

The Rams, The Browns, Pat Shurmur and Josh McDaniels

If you are tracking the comings and goings of coaches in this early off-season {for teams not in the playoffs} you may be aware that Pat Shurmur is looking like the likely HC of the Cleveland Browns. The Dawg Pound doesn't seem to thrilled about it. I wish I could give you guys some cold comfort, but it would sound more like a cold slap.

Sheeesh... It used to be that only a Super Bowl winning OC/DC, or a national championship College Coach would qualify as a new HC in the NFL. That's how Coach Spags got his job. Whatever happened to that high-achievement requirement?

I fully understand why Mike Holmgren would be enamored with Shurmur's offensive game plan. It is the closest thing to Bill Walsh's original system currently flying in the NFL. Holmgren and Shurmur would be of one mind on many subjects. They are clearly from the same school of thought. Still... don't you consider this a reach, Mike?

Readers of this blog will know that I am thrilled to be done with Shurmur. I've been after his scalp for some time. I didn't get it, but this is next best thing to being there. I have never been a fan of the WCO. I like Gillman-Coryell. It's the replacement part of the equation that bothers me.

Unless you track the Rams, you probably won't know that the name Josh McDaniels is being circulated as the front-runner in the Rams' quest for a new OC. These are words that hit like a steel ax handle to the face. Do you want to talk about a massive disturbance in the force as if billions of souls suddenly cried out in terror and were silenced?

Josh McDaniels has been on my shit-list for some two years now. Recently he became a figure of some ambivalence.

How do I hate him? Let me count the ways. I hate the coaching tree he comes from. Bellichick has no coaching tree. He has a twig of failures. McDaniels replaced Shanahan. That in itself is a bad thing. He did an all-out systematic demolition job on the Denver Broncos, leaving the team in ruins. He traded away my favorite passing combo in Cutler-Marshall. He fired a great defensive coordinator in Dick Nolan for no better reason than the fact that he desired a "Patriot way" guy on his staff.

How do I love the guy? Well... love is a very strong word that really shouldn't... I let McDaniels off the hook (slightly) when he drafted Tim Tebow. Any guy who likes Tebow as a QB can't be all bad. Not all bad, but 90% bad. Well... maybe not 90%... 85%. McDaniels also loves the Spread offense, which happens to be a particular passion of mine. This also happens to be Sam Bradford's strong point. Also, when push comes to shove, you must admit that the little bastard calls a mean game. There is a quirky play-calling genius locked in there somewhere.

You are reading the blog of a man who is literally ripped to shreds at the moment. I am eaten up wih internal controversy.

On the one hand, I don't want any infection of the Patriot-way virus near my team. This absolute bullshit hasn't worked for anyone, anywhere other than Bellichick in New England. It has destroyed much more than it has created. I don't want a failed coach off the Bellichick coaching twig to enter our staff. I don't want the little bastard to subvert Coach Spagnuolo's position as HC either.

On the other hand, this is an opportunity for my Rams to move to the Spread offense. That's something I've been advocating for more than a year now. This is a way to make Sam more productive. This is a way to introduce aggressive play-calling back into our team's repertoire. I have some confidence that McDaniels would not call stupid plays in key situations, or put our offense to sleep with a conservative running game when we need to score and put it away.

They often say that you *_DO_* want to be the man who first a guy immediately after he gets fired. Usually, once a coach's Man-Card has been revoked, he gets up off the carpet fighting twice as hard as he did before. This means you get his very best shot. Witness the job Linehan has done in Detroit for good evidence. A wiser, double-motivated McDaniels could be good for us.

It may be GM Billy Devaney is considering a move to the spread, but he is unwilling to trust a disgraced college coach like Mike Leach with the job. I think this unfortunate, because Leach is a legit offensive genius. At the same time, I can understand why Devaney would gravitate to a version of the Spread that has been proven effective inside the NFL. This case does have some real merit.

Ultimately, I am very ambivalent about all of this.

Some quick thoughts about Ram-fan anger at Pat Shurmur

I've been doing some much focused reading on-line during the past 48 hours. The focus has been this: Just what precisely are Ram-fans saying about Pat Shurmur? I would generalize our conversations by saying the following:

• Pat Shurmur doesn't know how to call a game
• He's way to conservative.
• We ran too much
• We didn't run enough
• Way too much dink-n-dunk passing
• He has a tendency to call bad plays in key situations
• We could have scored more points.
• We need to unleash Sam and throw it deep.

9 out of 10 blogs and posts say these things over and over:

Before I analyze this, I want you to know my organizational politics. I hated Pat Shurmur last year. I was the leader of the Comanche scalping party during the off-season of 2010. I was going to personally scalp Shurmur and hang his hair on wigwam post. Needless to say, we did not get it done. I would still like to see a change here, and I am still calling for his scalp.

With that said, there seems to be a misplaced focus of anger among most Ram-fans. Specifically, they seem to think the problem is that Shurmur is not running the West Coast Offense (WCO) properly. In the year 2009, that was absolutely true. In the year 2010... well... let's just say that Shurmur is running a version of the WCO that is reasonably close to the one Walsh himself ran in SF back in 1981. Walsh ran slightly deeper routes than Shurmur did in 2010, but not that much deeper. Add 3 to 6 yards of depth to each pattern and there you have it: Walsh's offense in 1981.

For the record, we should do a quick review of 2009. In 2009 the Rams were a run-first and run-second team. We threw only as a matter of last resort. If you compare Marc Bulger's numbers last season with Sam Bradford's numbers this season, the difference is like night and day. For instance, Marc Bulger threw for a total 1469 yards and 5 touchdowns, finishing 29^th in the league. Sam threw for 3,512 and 18 touchdowns, finishing 12^th in the league. That isn't entire Marc's fault, as I have said many times.

In 2010, the Rams' ran a pass-first offense. Just about all the patterns were horizontal. Very few were vertical. The throws were short, not long. We played a dink-n-dunk, nickel & dime, ball-control short passing game. Small-ball was the name of the game in 2010. By the end of the season, Ram fans were fed up with it.

You and I may well be fed up with it, but one thing we can't say (with truth) is that Shurmur is running the WCO incorrectly. No, he is indeed running the scheme. The WCO is a horizontal, ball-control passing offense. The name of the game is dink-n-dunk, nickle & dime, small-ball. It can be run better, but he is certainly running a version of the system. This is what you get when you run the WCO. When you order a taco, you get a taco. You shouldn't expect a T-Bone.

Young folks today are under the misapprehension that the big-play circus Andy Reid is running with the Eagles is the ultimate example of the West Coast Offense. Perish the thought! Reid may be using WCO terminology in his playbook, but the big-play circus he is running has little or nothing to do with the offense Bill Walsh invented for the Bengals and perfected with the 49ers. The Eagles do not run the WCO. The Rams do.

As you well know, our results in 2010 were far better than in 2009. We scored 289 points vis-a-vis 175 points. We won 7 games, not 1. This is why I shut up for most of the season and stopped swinging on Shurmur's nuts like Tarzan. I started again when Shurmur made key strategic blunders in crucial moments down the stretch. I am not talking about Bradford errors. I'm speaking of putting the offense to sleep with a conservative running game in key moments when we could have slain our enemy by putting points on the board. This happened several times down the stretch.

Two points have to be made clearly:

1. We can fire Shurmur, or let him move to Cleveland (whichever comes first), but unless we take advantage of this critical moment to dump the WCO, we are going to continue to dink-n-dunk. This is what you get with the WCO. When you order a taco, you get a taco. Don't expect a Porterhouse T-Bone.

2. Sam was clearly more effective in the shotgun with receivers spread wide. He was even more effective in a quick-time offense with 3 receivers, a tight end, and a running back next to him. This is what we call the NFL-Spread. It is a version of the College Spread, modified for better protection and support of a better running game in the NFL environment. Most of us were calling for this scheme by the end of the season. I want to remind you that before the 2010 season began, I was advocating a move to this system. Anyone who has watched Oklahoma football over the past 5 or 6 years knows why Sam is more effective in this scheme. Its home for him.

This is why I continue to say that we need to reach out to Mike Leach, one of the few legit Spread-Geniuses currently unemployed on the open market. He's ready to interview tomorrow. Let's get him in and hire him.

Just to give Shurmur and even break, I should say the following things:

• It’s tough to call for vertical shots down field when you have two poor guards and no vertical-threat receivers. You have neither the pass protection nor the hands down field necessary to make the play work.
• If Shurmur had called for more vertical shots, our sack & hit totals would have been higher. Sam might not have finished the season healthy, and we are all very happy that Sam finished the season healthy. Keeping Sam healthy through all 16 games this season was substantial achievement.
• Shurmur called two key vertical shots downfield during the game in Seattle, and Denario Alexander dropped both passes. This happened many other times during 2010 with many other receivers. Basically, none of our guys proved they could go downfield and catch the deep ball in 2010. Alexander is actually the best of our deep receivers right now.
• There are allegations that our offensive conservatism comes from the top. Some think HC Steve Spagnuolo set a “go slow, go safe” policy at the start of the season. Ostensibly, his policy never changed. While this is plausible, I do not know if it is true or not. I never heard any official source proclaim that Spagnuolo wanted a 'go safe go slow' policy at any point during the 2010 season. If you know of such a report, drop me a line with a URL.
• The ball-control nature of the WCO did help our defense quite substantially. The WCO usually produces good time of possession numbers. 12 play drives give your own defense time to reorganize and adjust as well as rest. WCO offenses usually help out their defenses. If we had taken hard vertical shots all the time, we might have scored a bit more, but we would have put our defense on the field quite a bit faster.

Ultimately, I am really pulling for the hiring of Mike Leach in 2011. Those who fear that it will set Sam Back should remember that the Leach’s spread isn’t all that different from the Bob Stoops spread Sam ran in Oklahoma. It will be more like a return home than a new scheme.

Take my Offensive Coordinator… Please!!!!

Mike Sando

Mike Sando, ESPN Blogger for the NFC West, claims that President Mike Holmgren of the Cleveland Browns is very interested in acquiring Pat Shurmur, offensive coordinator of the Rams. Jim Thomas says the same thing. It is unclear whether this would be for the head coaching vacancy or for the offensive coordinator post in Cleveland. Ultimately, I just don’t care.

I have only one response to that story: OH THANK YOU LORD JESUS CHRIST!!! Take him Mike! Take him! We’ll release Pat from his contract effectively immediately. Oh happy day!!! We’ll owe you a big one if you do us the favor. I can’t tell you how happy I am to hear it.

Congratulations to Pat Shurmur on his new post!

No need for a fight now

Just as I was sitting down to hash out my attack strategy, just as I was working on my apologetics for firing Pat Shurmur, this joyous news came down from the heavens. Let us hope is true. This will prevent many a fight online. Now I don’t have to swing on Pat Shurmur’s nuts like Tarzan. This is a great relief.

Many of us are still not happy with Shurmur’s play-calling ability, or lack thereof. He got better this year, and he might be better still next season with a good receiver like A.J. Green to work with, but I don’t want to take that risk. I honestly don’t think we can make it to a Super Bowl with play calling like this. You just don’t go from where Shurmur is now to a chess grandmaster is a couple of seasons. He is pretty far off the mark right now.

Why not let him go?

Those who object to ditching Shurmur do so for two reasons: (1) It will adversely affect Sam Bradford’s development, (2) Some suspect that Steve Spagnuolo is the culprit behind our extremely conservative offensive play calling. I take both of those objections seriously, but I don’t ultimately find cause for keeping him in these arguments.

First, none of us want to do to Sam Bradford what the 49ers did to Alex Smith. Certainly, the 49ers massive inconsistency at OC has something to do with the failure of Alex Smith. However, if we are going to make a long-term commitment to an OC and an offensive philosophy, I would rather make that commitment to Mike Leach, former coach of Texas Tech.

Second, I too harbor fears that Steve Spagnuolo just might have a bit of the old Marty Schottenheimer inside his skull. Let’s hope not. For those who don’t remember. Marty was a very detail-oriented Virgo HC, with a tremendous defensive resume, who always shut down his offense after scoring 10-17 points. Marty ball is synonymous with shutting down your offense once you have a 4 point or greater lead. This was a dude notorious for trying to ride a 4 point lead to victory in playoff games. The results were terrible. He always made the playoffs, and he always lost. Virgos hate gambling and taking risks, and this was the most risk-averse Virgo I ever saw.

Of course, we all hope that head coach Steve Spagnuolo is no such figure. I would like to exonerate him on this charge, just because he is doing such a fantastic job with the defense, and motivating the troops, but I know my logic is fallacious. Let’s just say I am keeping an eye on Steve, watching for signs. Sagittarians are not supposed to be risk-averse folks. Rather, they have a strong tendency to get a wild-hair up and take massive unwarranted risks. Right now, I am blaming Shurmur’s lack of talent for our lack of good offensive strategy.

Quick-time spread baby!

Many a Ram observer commented during this season about how slow we were to adopt spread formations and move to a hurry-up offense. It became clear early on that Sam could not only run a quick-time spread in the NFL, but that he looked more comfortable doing it. We got great results when we ran the quick-time spread. We should have used it early, middle and late. It should have been a frequently seen component of our offense, not a once-in-a-while thing.

Anyone who watched Oklahoma football in the past three seasons knows perfectly well why Sam is comfortable and productive in the quick-time spread. Anybody who has watched the New England Patriots play this season knows that this system works well in the NFL… if you have a good QB. We do. Let’s move on with the program.

Mike Leach is the one and only clear-cut Spread-Genius, currently unemployed, and ready to walk in the door for an interview. Let’s get him. Incidentally, he is a Pisces just like GM Billy Devaney. Pisces goes pretty well with Scorpio. He should work well with Sam Bradford.

Shurmur needs a dose of Jacob's Ladder

Intro

Well, my Rams got their 7^th win of the 2010 season against San Francisco 49ers this past weekend. As a special added bonus, we knocked the 49ers out of the playoff picture (if you can believe that). As double bonus, we sunk their battleship. The 49ers responded by firing Coach Mike Singletary, a questionable move that does not strike at the heart of their problems.

Let’s not be too full of malicious glee, because we still have a lot of work to do.

Great improvements but…

During the draft, I completely scoffed at all notions of the Rams pulling turn a turn-around and making the playoffs. Many sanguine Ram fans declared that a Miami/Atlanta type turn-around was possible. I scoffed at that, declaring that we were a lot further away from victory than Miami in 2008 or Atlanta in 2007. I was just hoping we could win a game. Forget about the playoffs.

At the beginning of this season, I scoffed at the notion that we were “poised for a great leap forward.” I felt we had made nowhere near the amount of progress we needed to see a “great leap forward.” We had a highly suspect and unproven offensive line, a surgically repaired rookie quarterback, no receivers and a few upgrades to our decent defense. That’s not enough, or so I thought.

Well we have made a hell of a lot of progress; surprising and unexpected progress. Most experts are calling the Rams the greatest surprise story of the year. We have a 6 game turn around in hand, with the possibility of a 7^th and a playoff spot. Winning the NFC West means going from worst to first inside our division. In a certain sort of way, this can be considered a great leap forward.

Let’s not be too full of ourselves. There is still a hell of a lot of home improvement we need to make before we can start talking about a Super Bowl run.

We’re still not playing good football

The Rams of 2010 are drastically better than the Rams of 2009. As I have observed many times, the Rams offense of 2009 looked like keystone cops at a Chinese fire drill. The defense was a work in progress that didn’t start to look sharp until the end of the season. Improvement was evident through the season defensively, but we still only fielded half a football team. The Rams of 2010 look more like a complete team, with both offense and defensive sides contributing to victory. This is the reason for the six additional victories we have had so far, and the highly competitive games we have lost.

With that said, we still aren’t playing good football. At the moment, we cannot compete with the likes of the Eagles, Falcons and Saints for supremacy in the NFC. We don’t have much chance of beating the Saints when and if they come to visit us in the playoff tournament. Granted, we never expected to be in the tournament in the first place, so we have a moral victory in hand. I am sure you and I will want and expect a lot more next season.

What do we have to do to get there?

In a nut shell, these are the things that must happen in order for the Rams to improve:

1. We need a deadly receiver. As I mentioned in a past blog, I am not speaking of a Pro-Bowl, or even All-Pro receiver. I am speaking of a historical figure who will blaze a path to the Hall of Fame and the Top 100 in NFL history. I am talking about a deadly threat that will give all the other 31 defensive coordinators in the NFL maddening nightmares before the game. I am talking about a game-changing playmaker who turns the tide of battle when everything is going against us.

2. We need a pair of behemoth offensive guards. Two copies of Carl Nicks (#77 for the Saints) will do very nicely. If I can get one Larry Allen and one John Hannah, I will be happy to take that as well.

3. We need a franchise defensive tackle. Although the selection of Sam Bradford has turned out to be the correct one, it breaks my heart that we just passed on the best defensive lineman since Mean Joe Greene. Ndamukong Suh would have fit the need perfectly.

4. We need to get Pat Shurmur some aggression training courses. Perhaps a trip through Marine Corp boot camp and Infantry school will do it for him. He must hone his killer instinct, or he will become a dead Marine.

Why do I say this?

First, the need for receivers is pretty obvious. I don’t think any Ram fan will contest this point. We all know we are going to pretty well flush and clean our receiver corp next season. If I were running the show, the only two guys I would bring back for sure would be Danny Amendola and Danario Alexander. Every other man better row for his life or lose it.

Second, although we now have a great center and two rapidly improving young tackles, our guards are pretty terrible. Anyone who has watched the past three games knows that the offensive line has allowed pressure from the middle, and failed to open any sort of running holes in between the tackles. When Steven Jackson has gained yardage, it has been off-tackle. I have been one of the foremost detractors of our offensive line. They have turned out to be quite a bit better than I thought, but this is damning with faint praise. If we want to take steps in the playoffs, we need to make sure we have devastating offensive guards who drive-block and slide-block. How the 49ers’ three man defensive line managed to dominate our offensive line is utterly beyond me. What a disgrace! If you observe what they did, they constantly pinched in, going after the guard gap.

Third, anyone who watched the game against the 49ers saw the 49er offensive line gashing holes in the middle of our defensive line. This wasn’t the first time either. Teams such as Cardinals have been able to run between our tackles with shocking efficiency. All of this points the finger at our suspect defensive tackles. Fred Robbins is a very nice pass rusher, but he is not the equal of Williams brothers in Minnesota. Of course, we know Ndamukong Suh would have been the perfect candidate… Perhaps we can acquire Albert Haynesworth cheap next season.

Shurmur needs Jacob’s Ladder

Some have accused the Rams of calling a very conservative offensive game. I deny that. Rather, Shurmur is simply calling a stupid offensive game. We are passing more than we did last season, and we are looking more like a West Coast Offense, but Shurmur is not off the hook just yet.

Going to sleep offensively when you have a 9 point lead and chance to go up by 16 is stupid football. It’s not conservative, it’s stupid. It’s reminiscent of the worst aspects of Marty-ball. Some call this “playing it safe” and “playing conservative”. No, it’s being stupid. Call a spade a spade. This is stupid football. Shurmur is still calling a stupid football game offensively.

No lead is safe in this league, especially if you are playing a team like the Eagles in the Playoffs. When you have the lead, you attack to destroy and demolish. Fuck all that stupid shit about running up the score. You kill the enemy. When you have your opponent down on the carpet, you do not allow him to get up off the carpet. You put your pistol to his forehead and you pull the trigger. You blow his brains out. You burry your opponent. You finish your opponent.

Shurmur needs aggression training courses. He must hone his killer instinct. He has passed on several moments of truth when we could have killed our enemies and finished them good. How I wish I could give Shurmur a dose of Jacob’s Ladder before the game. For those of you who don’t remember the movie, Jacob’s Ladder was the code name for a hyper-aggression drug developed by the U.S. Military to motivate soldiers to extreme carnage in combat. A single dose would turn an ordinary home-town boy into an enraged psychopath, frothing at the mouth and ready to kill everything.

How I wish I could give Shurmur a dose of Jacob’s Ladder before the game against the Seahawks.

Rams v Cardinals post-mortem

Sam Bradford completed 32 of 55 passes for 253 yards with 1 TD and 3 Ints. This gives him an NFL passer rating of 53.068. His NCAA rating would be 91.912.

33 QBs in the NFL threw enough to qualify for a passer rating on week one of the 2010 season. Sam is currently the 30th ranked QB in the league. Alex Smith (49ers), Shaun Hill (Lions) and Matt Moore (Panthers) are below him.

Sam can take some comfort that Mark Sanchez is only about 3 points higher than he is, and Joe Flacco is less than 10 points ahead of him. Brett Favre is less than 20 points ahead of Sam. As you can surmise, this was a tough weekend for QBs.

It should be noted that Vince Young is crushing everyone with a QB rating of 142.8. I knew he was good. That's why I own a copy of his jersey. Still, it's not all that impressive when you consider that he only shot 13/17 for 153 yards.

There are 5 variables required to compute an NFL or NCAA passer rating. Those five variables are:

1. Attempts

2. Completions

3. Yards

4. Touchdowns

5. Interceptions

Having written a simple little WPF Passer-rating calculator in C#, I think I understand this formula fairly well. I sat around fiddle-faddling with Sam's numbers trying to understand where things went wrong.

So the interceptions killed Sam, right? Not exactly. Subtract all three interceptions, and his rating only rises 75.795 (NCAA=102.821). Those are not particularly high ratings.

So he didn't throw enough touchdowns? Not exactly. Tossing another touchdown only tacks on 6 or so points, in the best case scenario. Tossing two more touchdowns only adds about 12 points.

The fundamental issue is Sam's yardage per attempt and yardage per completion. Sam only had 4.6 yards per attempt (253/55 = 4.6). Sam only got 7.9 yards per completion (253/32 = 7.9). His passer rating is only going to rise if these two figures heads north in a hurry.

Strictly speaking, Sam' stats on Sunday indicates that the Rams will come up short attempting to convert a simple 3rd and 8 situation, even the pass is complete. That completion will only happens 58% of the time. Those kinds of probabilities don't deliver a good passer rating.

What is missing? I'll tell you what is missing: the vertical offense. The Rams ran precious few vertical routes on Sunday. I saw lots of horizontal crossing shit; very few 999 all-goes. I would settle for a few 69 Razors. Even if you check down to Steven Jackson from 69 Razor, Jackson will have room to rumble because you stretched the field.

So what went wrong?

1. The WCO

2. Too many short routes (WCO).

3. No vertical 8 and 9 routes (WCO)

4. Too many horizontal crossing patterns inside 15 yards (WCO)

5. Pathologically conservative pass routes (WCO and Shurmur)

6. No vertical stretch (WCO).

7. Too many throws to Mark Clayton.

8. Mardy Gilyard was not in the lineup enough

9. Not enough throws to Mardy Gilyard

10. Poor pass protection

Notice that I list poor pass protection last? That's a new world order for me. I normally put that first on my lists.

As you can see, I am laying the corpse at the WCO's doorstep. Most of what went wrong with the Rams offense on Sunday has everything to do with the design and implementation details of the West Coast Offense, one of my least favorite offensive schemes in football.

Folks, this is what you get with the West Coast Offense. That dog had its day, and that day is now over. If you run the WCO, properly, this is the outcome you should expect. You get what you pay for. Once in a while, the WCO has a good Sunday, but that isn't most Sundays. As the famous New Orleans Bluesman once sang: Even the sun shines on a dog's ass some days.

In case you didn't get the take home message from the former paragraphs: I really, really, really, really, really don't like the WCO. If you do, show proof that it still works in its kosher form. I'll bet you real money you can't do that.

For further evidence of this fact, have a good look at what Kevin Kobb did in Philly before getting knocked out. Andy Reid truly experienced a retro moment there. He was trying to run a fully Kosher WCO for the first time in a long time. The battle did not go well, until Kobb was knocked out of the game, and Vick shreaded the WCO playbook.

Vick always plays sandlot ball. It is always a night at the improv with Michael Vick. Better a night at the improv-sandlot than a night with the WCO, I always say.

For some benighted people, the WCO means a highly sophisticated, organized, systematic, high-percentage, scientific approach to football. That perception is almost entirely faulty and off-point. What it is a stodgy, predictable, inflexible, easily countered offense. A well organized defense need not fear the WCO.

So what would be the correct solution for the Rams at this stage of the Season? Well it's simple really. You have to stretch the defense both horizontally and vertically. "Stretching" a defense horizontally alone doesn't stretch them at all these days.

A combined vertical and horizontal stretch is the signature and Hallmark of the Spread offense. The Spread is an offense Bradford knows well, and an offense which is mathematically sound. Mike Leach, the world's foremost authority on the Spread, is available on the market now. Ergo sum, you fire Shurmur, you hire Mike Leach. You run the vertical and horizontal stretch plays from the Spread, and you rip teams up.

Bottom line folks: I feel profoundly disconnected from the Rams.

The Rams executed a draft strategy this year I would never have pursued. None of the guys on my hit list were drafted by the Rams. All of the guys drafted by the Rams were either in my no-fly zone, or were complete unknowns. I would have changed offensive coordinators, Devaney did not. The lesson is plain: Devaney has a plan, and it doesn't look anything like my plan.

That would be fine if he also had a good plan. The problem is I don't like his plan. It involves ultra-high risk strategies such as (a) drafting wounded passers, (b) providing inadequate protection schemes, and (c) using an outdated, outmoded, systematically defeated offense (the WCO) that is certain to produce poor results.

Did I mention Pat Shurmur? I'd cut his head off. Get out the guillotine. Awe forget it...

Let me ask you straight-up: Do you think Devaney's plan is a good plan?

The whole team is headed in a direction I don't like, as I knew it would.

What are you kidding me? We beat the Ravens?

No! Your joking! Our guys popped 14 on the score board in the first two drives? No, your joking!

Both Scorpio and Smoker shredded the Ravens defense on back-to-back possessions? The Rams completed 11 consecutive passes to open the game? NAW! Quit pulling my leg. The Ravens have only given up one touchdown in the first 3 preseason games. They've smacked up a few people along the way.

So it is true. The Rams led all the way. The Ravens broadcast team didn't like it one little bit. They found it quite disconcerting that Ram QBs carved up the object of their pride.

As they correctly pointed out, the Rams were not facing the Ravens' first string defense. The Ravens were not playing their famous chaos front. They gave us a pretty 'vanilla' 4-3 look. Still they found the Rams success quite disconcerting and I found it fascinating.

More interesting than this is the fact that the Ravens only touchdown in the first half came on an interception return off the arm of Smoker. The Rams starting D did not give up a point to Ravens' offense. Granted, Flacco, Bolden and Rice did not play. Still, the backup offense look confounded.

There are reasons to be excited and concerned. Consider the first drive, Sam Bradford's only drive of the evening. Sam was perfect, 6/6 for 68 yards and 1 touchdown. He did not get hit, and he made a terrific throw deep in the redzone to Bajema. That was a tough throw. Sam was throwing against the zone in a compressed box. There were three defenders and two Rams in the crowded right corner of the endzone. Sam threw a high velocity dart to the perfect spot and made it look easy.

Best of all, Sam did not get hit during that drive. The line kept his jersey clean. That is a good sign.

On the flip side of the first drive, the Ram O-Line did not open a single running hole on several attempts. Ram running backs got stuffed on just about every attempt. Carney made a first down a second effort after getting jacked up at the line of scrimmage, but that was the only positive yardage for our running game via the 1st string line.

Now on the second drive... Well... that was a different matter. The 2nd string line seems to be able to block for the run. We got some very nice seals and ran the football in the alley.

I kinda get the feeling that Pat Shurmur is trying to make me like him. He actually called a decent aggressive game this time. The Rams took some bold shots. We called smart plays like the naked bootleg in the Redzone. I have said many times that this is the highest percentage play I have ever seen at the goal line. I don't want to count the number of times I saw the 49ers score on that play with Joe Montana and Steve Young. I am glad to see we can run it now.

Further, the Raven D had difficulty reading the differences between run and pass plays. This was mostly due to broken keys on offense. We lined up in a power-I and threw the football. We lined up in a weak I and threw the football. This surprised them. Let's keep it up.

So the Rams finish the preseason 3-1, and look improved, but don't get too jacked up. We finished 3-1 in preseason last year also. You know the rest of the story. I don't need to go over that again. We'll see how things go, but the Rams do look better. Remember, in a regular season match up, we'd go against Flacco and company, and the Raven defensive starters would be playing their chaos front. It would have been a different ball of wax in the real show.

Still, it was a nice birthday present.

5 Wins for the Rams in 2010...?

On last Friday's edition of ESPN Live!, former Corner and Head Coach Herman Edwards made a bold statement: A franchise quarterback means 4 more wins for your football team. He didn't give us examples, or statistics, he just left that apple tart for us on the table.

From now on I am going to call this Herm Edwards' law: A franchise QB means 4 more victories.

This created some echos and reverberations around the NFC West, a division thought to have no franchise quarterbacks... but a division which is hopeful. Now that they are running a considerable number of spread-like plays and formations, the 49ers have seen Alex Smith begin to blossom. The Seahawks just made a very strange trade, and they are hopeful. The Cardinals have been developing Matt Leinhart for some time now. The Rams just invested the absolute #1 pick in the 2010 draft in Sam Bradford. You know what they are thinking.

ESPN has a good blogger named Mike Sando who is extremely performance-simulation oriented. I like reading his stuff. He always points at some pretty interesting quantitative analysis or simulations. A while ago, Sando blogged that 10,000 reps of the NFC West schedule for 2010 produced some 7,300+ division titles for the 49ers. As many of us suspect, the 49ers have to be favored to win the division this year. The same simulations showed 4 victories for the Rams in 2010. This was the most common outcome. The Rams rarely won less than 3 games, and very rarely managed 6 wins.

Let's put it all together an extrapolate:

• The Rams had no franchise QB in 2010
• We want to believe we have one now.
• We won just a single game last season (1-15)
• Herm Edwards says a franchise QB adds 4 wins to your record
• Sando's favorite simulations say that the Rams are likely to win 4 games

So, if Devaney is right, and Sam Bradford is a franchise-making QB, we should win 5 games in the 2010 season. 1 + 4 = 5. For some this will seem plausible. For others it will not.

I am skeptical. I am usually skeptical. It is in my scientific and philosophical training. Leave no postulate unexamined. Don't presume math is reason. Never assume the model takes everything into consideration.

Here is some food for thought with this theory in mind:

• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games, and we accrue 5 wins, I will be willing to say Devaney's big-time gamble appears to be paying off.
• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games, and we accrue 5 wins, it would appear Herm Edwards' Law looks reasonable.
• If Sam Bradford should play in 16 games and we accrue 5 wins, we will have exceeded the computer projections by 1 game. We'll give that one to Sam. He will get credit for beating the spread.
• If Sam plays 16 and we get 6 or 7 wins, I think everybody will know what that means. He will have busted the ceiling in this case. Just remember, we're going to have to score more than 300 points to get to the 6 or 7 mark.
• What will it mean if Sam plays 16 and we win 1 or 2?
• What if Sam doesn't start until week 8 and we are 0-7 at that point? What if he managed 3 wins in the last 9? What will we make of this outcome?
• What if Sam doesn't start until week 8 and we are 0-7 at that point? What if he wins 5 of the last 9? I think we will know what to make of that outcome. There will be some celebration.
• So here is the goat-screw scenario: Suppose we start A.J. Feeley and we open up 4-0? What do we do then? That would not be such a good thing, eh?

Let me give you my personal thoughts about all this.

Troy Aikman is a name that seems to keep coming up in connection with Sam Bradford. That's not just because they are both from Oklahoma. It's not just because they are both accurate. It's because Aikman is the only absolute #1 QB pick to trigger a turn-around from kaput-worst to dynasty. Devaney knows that. I reminded him of that. He's using this imagery as propaganda to inspire us.

With that in mind, let's remember that Aikman was 0-15 during his first season as a starter. The 1 victory the Cowboys got during 1989 occurred with Steve Walsh at the helm. The Cowboys did not panic. Neither should we.

Pat Shurmur is going to be the limiting factor that busts the deal in 2010. I have not complained at all about Spagnuolo because I see him doing a tremendous job with very limited talent on the defense. Our defense rarely or never looked stupid last season. They were overwhelmed several times. Our D was betrayed many times by a pathetic offense that turned it over deep.

The offense was the problem in 2009. I can say, with great confidence, that I know our defense will be better in 2010. They are getting it. They have bought into Spagnuolo's system. They are playing like they have great confidence in their coach and his scheme. They may not be that talented a unit, bu they are trusting each other and handling their responsibilities.

I can't say any of these things about the offense. Shurmur did not manage a weak offensive unit nearly as well as Spagnuolo managed our weak defensive unit. Our offense looked downright stupid many, many times last season. This had much to do with Shurmur's lack of game management, and lack of skill in play-calling.

The offense played with enough confidence to leave a Dristan capsule half-empty. They didn't look like they understood what was expected of them. They looked like Keystone Cops in October against the 49ers. They didn't look to me like they had any confidence at all that the scheme would work. It looked to me like they were going through the motions, just trying to get the season over-with.

All of these things are a dreadful reflection on the OC.

Do we believe Shurmur is suddenly going to find his sea-legs in 2010? Do we think he is going to command the respect of the troops, and inspire them to greatness?

Do we think Shurmur will call a mean-game, like Mike Martz would? Is he suddenly going to diagnose precise weaknesses in the enemy D and viciously exploit them through well-constructed mis-matches, as Martz would?

Shurmur gave me many indications last season that he is a ridged and inflexible system guy. He is probably going to rely on the adaptation built into the WCO passing scheme to do his work for him... When he is not running the football.

Unfortunately, this is an out-moded and out-dated offense which has been systematically rendered infective by the Belichick Box. If Shurmur doesn't step outside his comfort-zone and bring some opponent-specific strategies to the table in 2010, we're not going anywhere.

This is why I want Shurmur fired. I have no confidence in this guy's ability to construct an adaptive game strategy for specific opponents.

Until we unload Pat Shurmur we need to be very cautious about calling 4 or 5 wins for the Rams in 2010.

About Sam Bradford, the young man, not the draft decision

So they had just a bit of footage from the Rams' OTAs last night on NFL Total Access. The focus was on the question "Why is Sam working out with the 2nd string right now?"

It was false drama by the media. All of us know why. The team is trying to pretend they aren't going to throw him head first into the shark tank immediately... sink or swim. We all know the truth is a little bit different. Jason La Canfora said as much, but he put a tad bit of spin on it, saying something along the lines of:

"They're taking it one step at a time. They want him to feel that he's earning it. Everyone expects him to be the starter by the time the games start counting. They describe his workouts as 'awesome.'"

Setting aside all my disputes with Devaney's judgement and draft strategy, which are numerous, what do I think of Sam Bradford, the player, the guy in a Ram helmet, right now?

He looks pretty good in a Ram uniform. He's not the skinny as a rail kid he was a few years ago during the BCS championship game. His throwing motion looks a lot faster as well. He always had a nice fluid throwing motion, reminiscent of Jim Plunkett at his best, but I don't recall his motion being quite this snappy before. Maybe he's self consciously trying to decrease his release time. Maybe his release has gotten faster as a result of the muscle weight and strength increase. I don't know.

We all know a quick release is good. Dan Marino, John Elway and Brett Favre had the three fastest releases I've ever seen in my life. Some say Elway was the fastest. Some say Marino was the fastest. It doesn't really matter now. They are both in the Hall of Fame, and they are both legendary figures of football folklore.

I would really appreciate it if our friends at the NFL Network or ESPN would put the super-high-speed cameras on his motion, and get out the laser speedometers, and clock Sam's throwing motion. Somebody probably already did that during the draft, but I did not see any results published. Also, I would like to see how Sam's new and faster release compares to Elway, Favre and Marino's.

Maybe I am a stupid homer, but it looks to me like his release time just might be down there in the lower milisecond regions, where the aforementioned great-ones dwell.

If so, this bodes extremely well for my Rams. I know for a fact that a slow-release doesn't kill you in the NFL. Many HOF QBs had slower releases. However, I know for a fact that a quick release does help. It's a positive. It's just like having quick feet. It's a good talent to have, if you've got it. Not absolutely mandatory, but it is to your advantage.

I think it has more to do with a QB's instant reaction to a situation than surprising defensive backs. I still don't believe NFL Corners can read the QB's throwing motion and react as quickly as they say they can. One thing we have to remember: defenders are always full of bravado and bullshit. This is true of Nose Tackles also. Defenders claim they can do all sorts of things they cannot do. You might call it "talking shit" but it's more like "believing shit."

Each time I see the kid on film, and I've only seen about 5 minutes of practice film, he looks very good. He looks better than most QBs I've seen practicing in these OTAs. Maybe it's just because he's deadly serious, and others are taking it easy. If so, there's nothing wrong with that picture. Can't complain about that.

Honestly, we can't tell until the regular season strikes, but so far he looks good. You know I am hoping and praying I am wrong about his career. Nobody will be happier than I will be if I turn out to be wrong here. The problem is the percentages are not good.

Everybody else seems extremely bullish about Sam Bradford. Just two days ago, I watched a couple of old episodes of Path to the Draft and Draft Recap. They said some terribly flattering things about Sam. Our two GMs, Michael Lombardy and Charlie Casserly, were very high on Bradford.

Casserly, in particular, said remarkable things. Just what did he say?

• "Bradford is one of the best QB prospects I have scouted in the past 10 years"
• "If I was a Ram fan I wouldn't question this selection. I would take heart and be excited about this choice. You're getting a great quarterback."
• "Bradford is the best player in this draft. He is the number one athlete, and he is going to be the #1 pick by the Rams."

When scientifically comparing the QB prospects from 2009, 2010, and 2011, several of the commentators on draft-recap believed Bradford is the best of the breed. This was particularly clear in Casserly's case. He favored Bradford's accuracy over Stafford's raw arm strength. He favored both over Jake Locker, who he seems to view as non-No.1 absolute. Mike Mayock seems to favor Stafford based on his 'generational arm', or arm strength alone.

[The logic of Mike Mayock's argument is not particularly sound. You never favor a dude on arm strength alone. If so, JaMarcus Russell would actually be a quarterback, and not an unemployed civilian. I should also caution you with the fact that Cassely doesn't think Tebow is a natural passer who can read coverage. That is bizarre notion, as Tebow is the NCAA's most efficient passer ever, even over our own Sam Bradford.]

All of these glorious statements can be challenged by a skeptic. Follow some of these statements to their logical implications. If any of this is true, do you know what it means? It means that Bradford ranks along side of guys like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, etc." Do you think that's right? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet.

We should caution with the following fact: Casserly also said Ben Roethlisberger had to be preferred over Sam Bradford. This was based on concrete achievement. Don't forget the Steelers were prepared to trade Roethlisberger and sweeteners for our Bradford. That's based on disgrace.

If these statements are true, Bradford is a better athlete than Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Do you believe that is true? I'm just asking. I don't know the answer yet. I find that difficult to believe. Let's remember, Mike Mayock kicked off the draft season by saying that this was a bad QB year, and two men stood head and shoulders above the field: Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. Somehow he changed his tune with the "Franchise Quarterback trumps alls" motif.

If just some of these statements are mostly true, this would strongly imply that my Rams just got away with the best QB prospect in the past 3 years. We'll also have a better one than will be available next season. He'll also be 1 year ahead of Jake Locker in experience during 2011.

One fact cannot be disputed: We are not well setup to receive a young man who has had injury problems at the quarterback position.

1. We had a bad line that gave up 44 sacks last season
2. We jettisoned two bad starters in Icognito and Barron. This is good, but...
3. We are rejiggering the line, switching a Right Tackle Sophomore to left, and a freshman Left Tackle to Right.
4. We're plugin in our reserve tackle Adam Goldberg at right guard.
5. We don't have terrific receiver threats. They are better than some think, but worse than the homers would have you believe.
6. Steven Jackson is coming off back surgery. The presumed security blanket may not be there.
7. Steven Jackson has no competent backup.
8. We do not have a running back committee, as we should have.
9. This cannot be remedied by signing Michael Westbrook, presuming he will sign with us, which is a big "IF".
10. We're running the WCO, which is an outdated and outmoded offense; a scheme that has been systematically defeated by the Belichick Box.
11. We've got Pat Shurmer as our OC... Nuff'said.
12. Whatever else you want to say about it, durability is the paramount issue. You can have fantastic size, strength, speed, lightning fast release, laser-guided accuracy, a brilliant mind, etc. If your body breaks down, your career goes up in smoke. My worst fear is that Sam lacks the physical durability necessary to make all of his other gifts work for him in the NFL.

All of these are great obstacles Sam is going to have to overcome. I hope he does so, for all our sakes.

I hope this is the turn of the tide. I hope we have a deadly franchise QB. I hope we have the next QB everybody will be raving about. I hope he triggers the establishment of a new dynasty and 10 years of glorious winning. I hope he's the QB every wide receiver wants to play for, just as Kurt Warner was in the early stages of this decade.

There is a lot to love about this kid. I just hope we are not responsible for destroying this young man with bad draft decisions, bad coaching, and bad personnel misses. One of the things that pisses me off is that Devaney took this kid, and then passed on coaches and tools that would make him successful. That has to change really damn quick.

So Tebow's biggest problem is that he is left handed, eh?

BleacherReport.com sent a newsletter to me this morning on the Denver Broncos, now officially my second favorite team. One headline boldly declared: "Tim Tebow's Biggest Problem: He's Left Handed."

The URL pointed towards a blog by Bill Williamson on the ESPN website. He would appear to be an official blogger on the subject of the Broncos for ESPN. He gave us a number of factoids to start off:

• Only 12 Southpaws have started 50 or more games in league history. This includes such illustrious names as Chris Simms, Michael Vick, Frankie Albert & Bobby Douglass.
• Only one Southpaw is scheduled to start in 2010: Matt Leinart.
• Only two Southpaws have won a Super Bowl: Stabler and Young.

Then we get some very bizzare information here which points at everything that is wrong about coaching in the NFL. Do you want to hear this?

• There are coaches and teams that aren't open to the prospect of going with a Southpaw. I'll bet that's my Rams.
• Many coaches don't think they can coach a lefty. There are certain challenges that coaches don't want to deal with. I'll bet that is Dick Curl.
• There are scouts who won't touch a lefty because OCs feel that a Southpaw could mess up their offense. I'll bet you anything that OC is Pat Shurmur.
• Then there is the flip-flop of blindside protectors. The ROT is the blindside protector if your QB is a Southpaw, not the LOT. Many OCs don't like that flip-flop at all.

I don't doubt there are such OCs in the league. I am sure there are. I merely want to go on the record and say that these are the types of coaches should be fired if you have one. They really should not be hired in the first place.

Everything about that sort of thinking is utterly wrong from the inception point:

1. Southpaws have a huge advantage. They flip the entire defensive pressure scheme upside down. Most defenses have big trouble with this.
2. Doing everything in reverse, and putting a reverse spin rotation on the ball does funny things to the minds of defensive backs. They read Southpaws more slowly. I believe there is a 12ms delay in the defense when they are forced to read a southpaw. This can make the difference between 18 inches of daylight, and a 1.5 yards of daylight.
3. This Southpaw advantage has made modestly talented QBs such as Ken Stabler and Boomer Esiason very successful in the NFL.
4. You never adapt a player to your offense.
5. You always adapt your offense to your players.
6. If you are a ridged system guy, you are no damn good to God or this country. We need to round you up, and shoot you down like a dog.
7. If you are a coach who is unwilling to stretch a little to gain the Southpaw advantage for the team, you're a faggot, and we don't need you.

I am almost certain I am speaking of Guys like Dick Curl and Pat Shurmur there. God damn them both to Hell. May they burn forever.

Yes, I am still smoldering over our draft decisions in 2010. I don't like 'em. I don't like those decisions at all.

I'll tell you what I really don't like about these choices. The hired guns like the GM and the OC will get fired, their affiliation with the Rams will end. They will probably be glad they have been relieved of the rebuilding duties. They will go on with their lives. We the permanent Ram-fans will be left with the wreckage and consequences left behind.

Just remember: There is no team loyalty at the management level. That concept does not exist.

Anyhow, I am still stunned that Mr. McDaniels stood up and grabbed Tebow. I hated this guy with a passion for breaking up a promising Bronco team. I still think he is making some wacky moves. The firing of Dick Nolan is truly inexplicable. Nevertheless, any guy who knows Gold when he sees it in Tim Tebow can't be all bad.

I would rather have Josh McDaniels as my OC than Pat Shurmur, that much is for certain. How about head coach? Well... I don't know about that. I like Spagnuolo just fine, and I fear what this McDaniels kid does when he is unleashed. Now, if we could get McDaniels to work under Spagnuolo, that would be a good tandem. It would be fitting too, as Spagnuolo's defense thumped McDaniels' offense in Super Bowl 42.

Learning to live with risk

Those reading this blog know I was never on board with the selection of Sam Bradford. I was against it all the way. To the very last instant, I was hoping for a trade announcement. Why so negative?

I felt drafting any QB #1 overall is an outrageous risk. Moreover, the natural risk is exacerbated by how poorly setup the Rams are to receive a fragile rookie QB. Our risk factors are higher than average, and average is pretty damn high already.

More specifically, I believed Sam would face the same fate as Marc did before him. Marc wasn't a bad guy. As I have said many times, we killed Marc Bulger. We let his OL dwindle to shit. We let his receiver corp dwindle to shit. Last year, we put Marc together with the worst offensive coordinator I have ever seen: Pat Shurmer. Now we are going to stick Sam Bradford in almost exactly that same shit.

Now does that sound like a good idea...?

And we are going to do so at the cost of $80 million. This is half an offshore oil drilling rig. This is the price of a modest Hollywood blockbuster. This will officially make Sam Bradford the highest paid Ram in history.

I used to laugh at teams who selected QBs #1 overall. A team fresh off of disaster elects a QB as their savior. A downtrodden fan base anoints this kid as the savior. Everyone hopes this will be the key player who is the linchpin of the next dynasty. They never seem to realize how seldom this works out in the end. The probability table is downright ugly.

If the kid will sign and play for you--which isn't always--he often gets hurt, or isn't good enough, or looses his confidence, or isn't serious enough to succeed. It will be the medical in Sam's case, if he doesn't pan out. When they don't go bust, the often turn into serviceable QBs who don't do much of anything spectacular. Look at Carson Palmer. Although he was selected #2 overall, look at Donovan McNabb. I always thought these poorboy franchises were foolish for going this route.

And now we have done it.

I spelled out the real risks in crass anatomical detail. I published them in high-traffic websites. I did everything possible to make this pick as uncomfortable as possible for Devaney. I was stone-cold ignored. He went and did anyway. When the pick came, it was like a wedding day celebration on national TV. It was clearly a joyous occasion for this administration. My heart was strangely warmed by this celebration. I was glad to see them make this pick with solid confidence. It gave me a very small modicum of confidence. 7 micrograms worth to be specific. Now what if they are fools?

Well, we did get one lineman and one receiver for him. I guess that's cold comfort.

The organization has taken a risk I have never witnessed in my lifetime. In 30 years of being a Ram fan, I have never seen the Rams do this. The last time we took a QB in the 1st round the year was 1964. This was something like 9 months before I would be conceived. We drafted Bill Munson from Utah State. He was not the absolute #1 either. That bust-o-matic bustola cured us. We would not take such a risk again for 46 years.

They stone-cold ignored me in several years when I wanted to take a Quarterback. I launched the "Draft Trent Dilfer" campaign at UCLA in 1994. The Rams gave me the middle finger. We fucked up. We stayed down low and selected Wayne Gandy from Alburn. He was a bust for us and the Steelers. Trent was a bust for the Bucs. He had to go elsewhere to succeed. I still contend that both Trent and the Rams would have had a much better time together than apart. We suffered without a QB for 5 years.

I was totally against Tony Banks and we saw what a tremendous bust he turned out to be. The only reason we don't mention him in the top 10 is because he was a 2nd round draft pick. This guy broke all records for fumbles and interceptions. He made Jake Del Homme look like a careful guy. The second we fired him, we won the Super Bowl. The second the Ravens fired Tony Banks (the very next year) they succeed us as World Champions.

Now when two teams that were struggling with you fire you and then immediately win the Super Bowl... in back-to-back years... Trent Dilfer succeed Banks in Baltimore. Don't you think we should have taken Dilfer instead of Banks in the 1990's?

FUCK!!!!

I hardly raised an eyebrow over the Trent Green acquisition. You never take a flier on somebody else's backup QB. Kansas City refuses to learn their lesson. Montana, Bono, Grbac, Green, Castle... they just keep doing it over and over again. Seattle will fair no better this season. Mark my words: Whitehurst is a stop gap insurance policy. Next year they are going to make a big move on Jake Locker. You never take a flier on somebody else's backup QB. This is why I was not big on the Trent Green trade.

In all fairness, Trent Green did show up big time for us in 2000. He was the NFL's highest rated passer that year. We immediately traded him. That was a mistake. I would still like to hire him as our offensive coordinator--if they won't hire Mike Leach--and sack Pat Shurmer.

I am usually not wrong about these Quarterback things. I have an instinct for it. I hate being right all the time. I am very hopeful that I am wrong about Sam and our organization... this time. However, I doubt it.

Devaney aught to know his ass is on the line. Spagnuolo is also on the line. If this doesn't work out, they are both dead meat. If it works, they are both geniuses, and everybody knew it all along.

I remember the scene when Governor Tarkin turns to Darth Vadar and says "This is an awful risk you're taking, Vadar." Vadar allowed the Millennium Falcon to escape with plans of the Death Star, knowing the the Rebs would take it to their main rebel base immediately. He planed to track them and destroy that rebel base-planet with the Death Star.

Let's just say it didn't work out. They blew the Death Star with a real bad call on that one.

Just picture me turning to Billy Devaney as Tarkin turned to Vadar and saying "This is an awful risk you're taking, Devaney."

Jim Plunkett 2.0 edition. It's now a lost cause...

So, I read a blurb indicating that something on the order of 99% of the 140 published Mock drafts have Sam Bradford going #1 overall to the Rams. Whilst the draft is not a democracy, many of these mocks are written by reliable snoops who are acquiring insider words and leaks. They accord with what the "prescriptive experts" believe the Rams should do.

The only real chance for the Rams avoiding--what I consider to be--a mistake is for Tom Condon to bust the deal. If he demands a 20% premium over Matt Stafford's contract, and some say he will do precisely this, the Rams may pass. We need to remember the Rams are a football team with cash-flow problems in the middle of a franchise sale. It may be very difficult for the Rams to pony-up that grip full of scratch.

So why am I against this selection. I have stated why I am against this selection many times. I will do so again:

1. Our offensive line is worth shit. We gave up 44 sacks last season and we were one of the most run dominated teams in the league. We threw for only about 175 yards per game. The best pass-protecting team in the league is the Colts. They surrendered only 13 sacks and they are one of the most pass dominated teams in the league. The worst pass protecting team in the league is the Packers. They surrendered 51 sacks--just 4 more than we did. They are a pass-dominated offense. Arguably, we have the worst pass protecting offensive line in the league.
2. Sam Bradford is a QB with a track record of injuries. Look at the Heisman photos which show him hoisting his prize with a cast on his left hand. Witness the photos of the giant ice pack on his shoulder. Witness the many interviews and and inquiries done with his doctor: James R. Andrews.
3. You put them both together and you have bad karma. This is the making of the Jim Plunkett 2.0 story.

Why the comparison with Plunkett? There are many.

1. When Plunkett was drafted in 1971, he was acclaimed as one of the best and most accurate passers in NCAA history. So too is it with Sam Bradford.
2. Everyone marveled at Plunkett's beautiful throwing mechanics, and his pretty spirals. So too is it with Sam Bradford.
3. Plunkett was a Heisman trophy winner. So too is it with Sam Bradford.
4. Plunkett came from a program not renown for producing NFL quarterbacks. So too is it with Sam Bradford.
5. Plunkett was selected #1 over-all in the NFL Draft by a team with a horrid offensive line. We won't know until April 22, 2010, but it sure looks like it is going to turn out that way for Bradford.
6. To the best of my knowledge, Sam Bradford will be just the second major name NFL QB of Native American stock. Guess who the first was? Jim Plunkett.
7. Plunkett started out extremely well with the Patriots, even winning the rookie of the year. He was soon cut down by one terrible injury after another. He was traded to the destitute 49ers, where things got worse. He was claimed off waivers by the Raiders. After two years rest, he took his position behind one of the greatest offensive lines in NFL history. He detonated, and the Raiders won the Super Bowl.

We won't know for some time, but I have a sinking feeling that this is the way the Sam Bradford story may yet turn out. As the man said in Aliens, "I have a bad feeling about this drop."

If our GM Billy Devaney were anything shy of delusional about the current status of our offensive line, I might have a bit more hope. If we had more than a single #2 receiver, I might have a bit more hope. If we had a good Spread-oriented offensive coordinator, not Shurmer, I might have more hope. If we would fire Shurmer and hire Mike Leach, I might have more hope.

None of this appears to be the case. As far as I can tell, we are going to march into 2010 in the following manner:

1. Draft Bradford #1 overall
2. Give him a $60 million over 4 year black-hole contract.
3. Continue with Pat Shurmer, and stick with the West Coast Offense.
4. Not sign Bobby Williams or Flozell Adams.
5. Leave the O-line upgrade up to Hank Fraley... oh bouy...
6. Maybe draft a receiver or two. Probably nobody you've heard of.
7. Not make the deal for Brandon Marshall

I have a bad feeling about this drop.

Is Pat Shurmer the root of all evil?

Prolog

• We have established that only 33% of all QBs drafted in the 1st round succeed in the NFL.
• We have established that selecting a rookie QB #1 overall, and subsequently going bust, will cost you 5 lost years of franchise history. It usually results in the firing of a head coach and a GM as well.
• We have established that the Rams line, as currently constituted, has only 2 of 5 slots well filled. Therefore we are 40% functional at best.
• We have established that the Rams have only a single NFL capable receiver in Donnie Avery. We believe it is his destiny to become a #2 receiver behind some player to identified later.
• We have established that Marc Bulger failed due to his fragile body, and poor protection behind a bad offensive line.
• We have established that Sam Bradford has his history of injury, including a broken left hand {view his Heisman photos} and a surgically repaired right shoulder.
• The facts speak plainly that the West Coast Offense has been an abject travesty in St. Louis. In 2010, the Rams were the worst offensive football team in the NFL, scoring only 10.9 points per game. That is 32 out of 32.
• We have established that the West Coast Offense is an outdated and outmoded scheme, easily countered by the deployment of the Bellichick Box.

It seems manifestly obvious to me that the Rams are preparing to move forward in the following direction.

1. Select Sam Bradford #1
2. Continue with Pat Shurmer in the Offensive Coordinator slot
3. Continue to work with the Faux West Coast offense.
4. Do little or nothing about our offensive line woes, pretending that the line--as constituted now--will be solid. Oh, ghee! I forgot about Fralley!

Folks, I am going to be brutally honest with you: This plan is absolute rubbish. To borrow a phrase from my English buddies: This is fucking bollocks mate! Our line, as constituted now is rubbish. If we put Sam Bradford behind this rubbish line, in the shark tank, with just one #2 receiver to throw too, he is extremely likely to become a medical bust. At best, he will become another Jim Plunkett story, going somewhere else to win, after the Rams give up on him.

So why the hell are we going to follow this plan of action? Why have we not abandoned the preposterous plan to implement the West Coast, which has been a persistent failure for some 4 years now? Why have we not fired Pat Shurmer? Why have we not headed in a more modern and aggressive passing direction?

1. Bill Devaney spoke several times on the NFL Network before and after the draft last year. He basically telegraphed the plan for 2009, saying it was no secret that Steven Jackson is our best player. The objective is to build around him.
2. Perhaps Devaney ordered Pat Shurmer to call runs on 1st, run on 2nd down, and pass only on 3rd down {when necessary}. What ever the case was, the result was the most predictable, boring, lifeless, lowest-scoring, least effective offenses the NFL has ever seen.
3. All defensive coordinators who played against us diagnosed our simplest of all pattern inside of 4 minutes of game film. I had a hunch they were laughing like hell at us during the games.
4. Perhaps Shurmer survived because he did as he was ordered to do, and because he could always complain that he had no viable QB on the Roster.
5. So now Shurmer is going to be given his reward for being patient, and doing as he was told. The Rams are going to select the top passer in the draft, and give Pat the kid he wants to construct our West Coast passing attack around.

But what about the fact that this plan is flawed from its inception point? What about the fact that the West Coast is outdated? What about the fact that we don't have an offensive line? What about the fact that we are replacing one fragile passer with another fragile passer? What about the fact that we have only one WR?

When I hear a guy like Rod Woodson tell the world that we have most of the other pieces in place, we just need a QB to build around, I know for a fact he has not been watching Ram games. I don't blame him. Why should he? Clearly he is wrong. We are poorly prepared to draft a QB such as Sam Bradford.

They say insanity is continuing to do the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is precisely what the Rams are doing. If this all ends in tears, as I suspect it will, I think the new owner of the Rams is going turn over the entire cadre and start over again. We will have 5 lost years, and our next launch window will occur in 2015.

So now for the title...

Is Pat Shurmer the root of all evil? Probably not, but he is the Queen on the Chess board. Taking him off the board will break the current gambit and send the game in another direction. This is as it should be. Replacing Shurmer with Mike Leach, trading for Vick, and drafting Tebow would be the first, best and most modern gambit, sending us in a direction sure to give NFL Defensive Coordinators fits.

In the final analysis, I think the Rams are about to make a set of very dumb moves, with the appause of ESPN ringing in their ears. It will all end in tears, and all the so-called experts will act surprised, saying things like "who thought that plan would go wrong?" That same crew will act shocked when Tebow succeeds big time with the Steelers.

Why? Why? Why? Why can't they see this is the wrong direction? Ultimately it is because there are a collection of stupid biases in the NFL regarding what systems and approaches work, and what doesn't work. There are a number of stupid biases about what kind of college player makes it at the QB position and what kind of player does not. Regrettably, NFL teams are run by a collection of older men who are set in their biases and their ways. They are not open to the proposition that they can be wrong. They don't believe the dogma can be wrong.

Ultimately, this stupid and biased stodginess causes a 33% rate of success among 1st round quarterbacks. We mis-evaluate a lot of prospects on the basis of these biases. It also causes gems to be completely overlooked. I am coming to the conclusion that my team is going to be the stodgy & stupid bias team in this year's NFL Draft.

I'm warning you: the current plan is going to end in tears. There are too many predictable points of failure in this strategy for it to work out well. The new owner is going to flush the toilet.

Ultimately, nobody will be happier than me if I am wrong. If Sam turns out to be the new Dan Fouts and 1 better than Warner, I will gladly confess I was wrong. I just don't think that will happen.