A little draft update, 23 days out

Intro

We are just 23 days away from the NFL Draft. Of course, it is Mock-draft season. We see one mock draft after another, from one expert after another. Presently, a number of new trends are emerging. Just what are they?

Cam Newton goes #1 to Carolina

This notion left me shaking my head. A week after we got a scathing character report on Cam, his stock has never been higher, according to the mocks.

If true--and that's a big IF--this only goes to show that we evaluate quarterbacks on exactly the wrong criteria: Athletic ability and upside potential. Are those bad criteria? You damn betcha! We settled all of this in the debate last year, folks. The most import aspect of the QB is his mind, and particularly the intangibles of leadership, ability to handle big pressure, and desire. After this, we can begin to talk about accuracy and toughness.

There have been a hundred great athlete QBs who went bust. Not the least of these are Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell and now... maybe... Vince Young. Your athletic ability says nothing about your prospects as an NFL QB. Sorry folks that's the truth.

But is Cam likely to be the #1 selection? This is a different question. I still think the answer to that is NO. Granted, the Panthers are acting in a provocative manner right now, but I think they're playing a little game of Snooker. I think they are trying to snooker some team into making a deal for that #1 pick. That might be the Bills. That might be the Bengals. That might be the Cardinals. That might be the 49ers. That might be the Redskins.

When the chips are down on draft day, I think the Panthers won't be able to pull the trigger on a new QB. They will either trade the pick or use it for a defensive player like Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson, or Von Miller. If you take QB #1 in 2011, you are reaching like a moefoe. This class just isn't that good. If they do reach for a QB, it will be Gabbert.

The Bengals go defense?

You should have seen my face last night as Charles Davis and Steve Wyche had the Bengals taking defenders in their mocks. This was all the more puzzling because both Charles Davis & Steve Wyche showed Blaine Gabbert still on the board as they threw defenders at the Bengals. I almost fell out of my zero gravity recliner. That ain't easy to do folks.

Let me just say this... The Bengals want a defender with their #1 pick about as much as you want a peanut butter and motor oil sandwich, seasoned with a little Iodine-131 from Fukushima. Does that sound appetizing to you folks? I didn't think so.

Neither CB nor a DE answer pressing Bengal needs. I do believe that they are taking a QB or WR with that top pick, and then they will go after the complimentary position in the second round. It would be Gabbert in the 1st, and maybe Leonard Hankerson in the 2nd, if the scenario unfolds as Davis & Wyche have it.

Some still say that the Redskins select Julio Jones

Charles Davis is one of many who still think the Redskins will select Julio Jones. I've never bought that theory. I do worry about it sometimes, but it doesn't seem very realistic to me. If anything, this is a pimp-fake. The Skins may be trying to pimp the Rams for some picks.

The learned Redskin insider (featured on Path to the Draft) didn't buy the Jones theory either. I was encouraged by the fact that he sees things as I do. He believes the Redskins are 3-4 defensive team without 3-4 defensive personnel. Incidentally, Mike Lombardi called this one a month ago. Defense is their most devastating problem. It's even worse than their QB need.

WR is a deep, deep 3rd priority for the Redskins. No matter how bad their receiver stock is, a receiver can't help until you settle your QB problems. Furthermore, no matter how bad the QB problem is, Shanahan has a more pressing political problem.

Shanahan began his reign by blowing-up a good and functional 4-3 defense by arbitrary whim. Now the Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league. This terminated Mike's honeymoon in one shot, and created a lot of angry Redskin fans... not to mention one disgruntled Albert Haynesworth. That's $100m worth of disgruntledness there.

The consequences of this bad defensive move cannot be overstated. When Mike Shanahan get's fired in one year's time, people will point to his 3-4 defense verdict as the key mistake that shank his battleship. Notice I say when, not if. That isn't easy for me. I'm a big Shanahan fan and booster.

Shanahan's got a Fukushima Daiichi reactor leaking plutonium on his hands. He has to get this under control and clean up the mess quickly. Perforce, the Redskins go defense with this pick.

Tyron Smith is #1

Tyron Smith took a page from Andre Smith's playbook and did the shirtless Olympics at the USC Pro Day. For Tyron, it was a good move. Critics were worried about his sudden move up from 285 to 307. They were concerned that his new weight might all be flab. Nope, not even close. He looked like a clipping from the pages of the Incredible Hulk comic book. He looked every inch the prototype OT. There are questions about whether he is a right OT or left OT, but this hardly matters. He looks like the prototype, and it is a very poor class of tackles in 2011. Tyron will probably be the first offensive lineman off the board.

We'll see Jerry takes Tyron, or selects a flashy playmaker who puts butts in the seats. The Redskins fans seem terrified that the Cowboys will take their chosen 3-4 defender just to kick sand in their collective face. There may be some hair on that dog. The strategy of denial is a key stratagem in warfare.

Most teams are poorly positioned in this 2011 draft

If I've heard it once now, I've heard it a dozen times: Nobody likes their draft position in the 2011 Draft. Carolina fans are pissed that the team might reach for a QB at #1. Bengal experts are pissed that they might not get a QB at #4. Cardinal experts are pissed that they can't get a QB at #5. Dallas experts are pissed that they might not get a CB or the correct DE at #9. Redskin experts are pissed that they can't a QB at #10 and that Dallas may snatch their DE pick ahead of them. Lion experts are pissed that they might not get Tyron Smith at #13. The Rams are pissed that they might not get a crack at a receiver at #14.

Everybody is poorly positioned in this draft... except the Broncos. Many Bronco fans seem quite happy with the prospect of taking Marcell Dareus at the #2 overall slot. Some think Patrick Peterson would be better, but they also seem to like Darius.

For this reason, I suspect we may see more trade action on draft day than most experts expect. There's just too much discontentment with batting order for folks not to try something here. I think teams may find a way to help each other out. I know it seems unlikely due to the inability to bundle players and picks. It seems even more unlikely due to the inability to mortgage future picks. However, I still suspect that they may find a way to get it done this year.

The Ruling of the judge

As you know, the NFL and NFLPA just exited the courthouse in Minnesota a few hours ago. We expect a ruling in a 'a few' weeks. To me, a few weeks means at least two and less than four. Project 14 to 21 days for a ruling.

I find it intriguing that the NFL's counselor was questioned for nearly 5 hours by the judge. Comparatively little time was spent questioning the NFLPA's counselor. If you are questioned for 5 hours by the judge during a hearing, I presume this means you have a questionable position or case. Think about it folks.

Let's suppose for one moment that the judge rules in favor of the NFLPA. Let's suppose that this occurs sometime in the next 14 to 21 days. This would mean that the lockout could lifted, or partially lifted, anywhere between April 20-27. She could issue the verdict quite literally the day before the draft. That would be amazing.

It has been said that the NFL would need 24-48 hours of prep time to comply with the court order. Free agency could commence within 24-48 hours of the ruling. Suppose the verdict comes down on Friday April 22, 2011. What then?

We would have an amazing free-agency blitz in the immediate prelude to the draft. This has the potential to make for a very exciting, but chaotic and disorganized week of major moves.

Think about it folks.

NFL Path to Draft put the Rams on the clock Thursday

Intro

Unless you’re some kind of deranged lunatic or something, I know you DVR every episode of Path to the Draft, and review carefully. To do otherwise would be immoral, unethical, and beyond the pale of any acceptable human conduct. This is just one of those thing you have to do in life, or you really won’t know what’s going on.

Last Thursday

Naturally, our Rams are not getting as much press this year as last. We draft #14, not #1. We aren’t in the leadoff spot, and we aren’t going to set the table for everybody else. Still, we have gotten some attention, and that reached a pre-draft apex on Thursday.

D'Marco Farr, Munchkin pass rusher extraordinaire on our 1999 Super Bowl team, was the guest analyst. As we all know, he is the color guy on Ram broadcasts these days. It was interesting to see that, once again, and I are agreeing on most points. You see, all of us runt defensive tackles think alike. We could have been the Mercury twins on the D-Line. He’s a Gemini and I am a Virgo.

What are those points of agreement?

1. 1. If Julio Jones is there at #14, it is the biggest no-brainer of all time. I said just about the same thing a month ago.
2. 2.
We are in danger of not getting a receiver if we stay put. We will be fortune if he falls to us.
3. 3. If we can’t the receiver, Missouri DE/LB tweener Aldon Smith would be a very good choice.
4. 4. Mark Ingram is an option also, because we have no competent back up for Steve Jackson.

There was one point of disagreement though. D'Marco Farr doesn’t think that a move up the board is either likely or reasonable given the number of needs we have on this team. D'Marco may just be echoing information he has been given by insiders, such as Devaney himself. I may not be disagreeing with D'Marco on this point.

Also, there was no mention of Mike Pouncey from D’Marco. This surprised me. Our need(s) at guard are nearly as great as our need at the WR position. Mike Lombardi mentioned this immediately when they went to him.

Aldon Smith?

I have praised tweeners several times in the last few months, and particularly DE/LB tweens, describing them as the most destructive and disruptive players on the defense. I have also praised their bargain basement prices. Because these guys are usually projections, you can get them cheap, in the later rounds. The #14 pick the 1^st round wasn’t exactly what I meant when I said that. With that said…

Aldus Smith is one hell of a pass-rusher who reminds me of two men: Charles Haley and our own Leonard Little. He is one of those super-lean, greyhound defensive ends who just sprint around tackles and make free-runs on their way to sacking the QB. Even if he doesn’t get home, he forces the QB to change his underwear at half-time. All else being equal, I would love to draft this kid. Unfortunately, all else is not equal

It is difficult for me to see Aldus Smith getting a lot of snaps at DE for the Rams, unless it is the result of an injury. Chris Long and James Hall have proven their worth as our starters. We nailed 43 sacks last season as a result of their strong play. Fred Robbins has to be given considerable credit for getting home also. Because Gary Gibson is the other DT, and Fred Robbins has 11 years in the league, I think DT is the much greater priority.

Now on the other hand, if we were going to use Aldus Smith as the Will Linebacker, I would consider him a very exciting pick. As Steve Wyche correctly pointed out, Spags believes our biggest weakness is our outside linebackers. Teams love pitchouts and quick hitting stretch plays that go wide. They think they can hit our OLBs hard and fast, and we haven’t given them a reason to think otherwise. We were hurt much worse by the outside breakaway that the run up the middle last season. We have a great need at OLB.

Now for the rub: Would Spags want to use Aldon Smith in this capacity? If he does, we also need to grapple with the fact that we are drafting a projection player at #14, which is not usually considered a good value or risk. If Spags would use him like this, I would draft him. I think Aldon is a special player, and I would love to have that kind of defensive force at the WLB. In this case, I would gamble.

Mark Ingram

Although I have seldom mentioned this fact, Mark Ingram is one of my favorite guys in this draft. How can you not love this kid? If you loved Emmitt Smith, you have to love this kid. I remember the day, some 3 years ago, when a dude at work first told me Alabama had an Emmitt Smith clone, and he’s the son of Giant receiver Mark Ingram. I scoffed, and declared that this is just because he wore #22. Since that day, Mark Ingram has given me about 1,000 reasons to eat my words. I enjoyed the piece Marshall Faulk did regarding Mark Ingram, as he also prosecuted the case for baby Emmitt.

The case for and against Mark Ingram with the Rams is very, very complicated. There are a pros and cons to it that are tough to sort out. I’ll try to do it quickly in two lists of bullet points.

Pros

• Steven Jackson has had a preposterous workload over the past three years. None of us like to think of the day when Steve Jackson wears down or retires, but that day is coming.
• The Rams have no competent back up for Steve. When he gets hurt, the running game dies, and we become mono-dimensional.
• All recent Super Bowl champions have had running back committees. No recent champion has had a single sledgehammer back.
• Mark is one hell of a good kid. You gotta love this kid.
• Others (not me) have frequently compared Sam Bradford to Troy Aikman. Everybody (and I mean everybody) compares Mark Ingram to Emmit Smith. You draft Ingram and we are 66.66667% of the way to putting the triplets back in business again.

Cons

• There is a theory that Jerry Jones never drafts offensive linemen in the first round. Rather, he always takes a flashy and exciting play-maker.
• You know Jerry loves Emmitt to death, and misses him terribly. There is a theory that Jerry is laying out there in the weeds, getting ready to pounce on Mark Ingram at #9. You know this would be a very popular pick in Dallas. The fans will forgive him immediately.
• Believe it or not, we might not get a shot at him.
• Josh McDaniels is now our OC. We are going to the Spread.
• In the Spread, balance means throwing 2 or 3 times for every run.
• In the Spread, balance is more about ensuring that everyone touches the ball than a 50/50 run pass ratio.
• In the Spread, the most lethal sort of back is a Marshall Faulk, Therman Thomas, C.J. Spiller, Jhavid Best type of guy. The Spread requires a back who is a deadly and elusive receiver circling out of the backfield.
• You can make a very good case that acquiring Reggie Bush on the cheap would do more to enhance Josh McDaniels’ offensive agenda than anything else.
• How will Josh McDaniels make use of two sledgehammer backs in his Spread offense?

My two cents

The notion of assembling a new set of Triplets on our roster is a very, very exciting idea. You have to be galvanized by the notion of putting Sam Bradford together with Mark Ingram.

However, let’s remember that Michael Irvin was the first of the three Triplets in Dallas. Right now, we have nothing like him. A.J. Smith and Julio Jones look a hell of a lot like him, if you ask me. I still believe the Receiver is our first and greatest need.

Wouldn’t be just fucking incredible if we could get both Ingram and Green somehow? Oh well, we can always dream.

The run of the mill gang, 2011

So, I was reading the NFL news this morning, and a fundamentally solid dude by the name of Steve Wyche informed us all that many NFL teams think that Blaine Gabbert is nothing special. You can read it for yourself here. Now, while Blaine is a very clean kid, and a very winsome likable guy, I am forced to agree... 100%.

Sorry world. I would much rather like the kid. There is nothing to dislike, on a personal basis. Understand this: If Andrew Luck were in this draft, you know who everybody would be clamoring for. You know Gabbert has risen because there is nobody else to occupy that vacuum at the top QB position. Nature abhors a vacuum.

As Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said last night on NFL Total Access, there are no Sam Bradfords in this year's draft. I was greatly heartened to discover that he sees things much as I do.

This brings us to point two of Wyche piece. He very strongly implies that Cam Newton could easily become the one memorable and hall of fame QB in this draft. I would add just one caveat: provided he doesn't bust outright.

Understand this: I would much rather like Cam Newton. Cam is a Taurus kid. He's an Earth brother. I love mobile, athletic kids, and I like the Spread. I do find him to be a winsome kid. I would greatly prefer to endorse him. Nevertheless, he is a 1 year wonder. As Mike Mayock is fond of saying: NFL Draft history has a landfill worth of 1 year wonder picks who went bust. This is a very risky kid. He is one of the riskiest picks in the entire draft, and that can be demonstrated with stone-cold actuarial statistics.

You pick him at your risk.

I want to state big picture one more time so draft mania doesn't sweep us out to sea its powerful riptide. The 2011 draft cannot hold a candle to the 2010 draft. This is strictly a run-of-the-mill, mediocre, average draft class. That may be giving these kids too much credit. 20 years from now, this may be a very forgettable draft class.

As Charlie Casserly has said, he can hardly remember the last time he has seen such a weak class of seniors. I would remind you that is true because we had such an amazing crop of juniors in last year's draft. I warned you that 2011 was going to be weak.

This is why I have a had a very difficult time getting motivated to write about this crop, especially for wider-public arenas such as BleacherReport.com. This just isn't an exciting class. It is difficult to get excited about the 2011 draft crop. It's like looking at bad porn. It just isn't exciting, although you think it should be.

This is why I continue to tell my fellow Ram-fans that the greatest good that could ever come out of this draft is a top-flight wide receiver. Even if we give up a sizable chunk of our draft to get A.J. Green or Julio Jones, it will be well worth the cost, and the best use of our ammo.

The only three guys who excite me are Von Miller, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green. All three of these guys are top-prospects, no matter what the year. They would have been high picks last year. They will be this year.

The rest of these first round guys are over-bought, over-priced, high risk, potential busts.

The about face is radical...?

According to Steve Wyche of the NFL Network, there has been a radical about-face among Ram-fans. He says that prior to the draft the mere mention Sam Bradford drew ire and scorn from Ram-fans. Suh was the desired candidate. As we know, Devaney ignored these folks (like me) and went right ahead with his selection of Sam Bradford. Now, according to Wyche, Bradford is approaching folk-hero status before he has ever played a game.

Fuck... that sure is news to me... and I though I was a connected guy. The mood on Bleecher Report is still guarded and somber. VanRam soft-pedals deeply disturbing news regarding Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith, and Greg Bell. Even our backups like Setterstrom are out for the season right now. My apartment manager, who is a 40 year Ram-fan, looked me dead in the eye and asked "what the fuck are we going to do with a quarterback this year?"

He said that laughing, in a grim, gallows-humor sort of way. That sounds like a bizarre statement to most football fans, unless you understand what's happening with the Rams. If you know what's up, this is actually a funny inside-joke.

He knew that I knew. I knew that he knew. He knew that I knew that he knew. I knew that he knew that I knew. We know each other. We know we know.

I will tell the rest of you non Ram-fans the ancient Chinese secret, which is no secret. I will give you the sacred piece of divine wisdom we are missing. There is an ancient piece of Chinese wisdom which Devaney and the Rams are sorely lacking. It the key to our failure. This bit of wisdom was written down by the ancient philosopher Confucius sometime around 490 BC.

Are you ready for this? A rough translation into English goes like this: You need to put some concrete and steel in your basement before you attempt to build your 2nd floor firmly in mid-air.

The Rams were poorly setup to receive a highly accurate passer like Sam Bradford before the injury bug began to strike down our offensive line (yet again). Only stupid fuck-heads ignore Confucius. You would do well not to, Devaney. Yep, I'm talking to you.

Drafting a QB with basically no line in front of him, a surgically repaired running back, and receivers that can't scare very small baby hamsters is exactly like attempting to build the 2nd floor with no foundation or ground level. Sorry bitches, that's just the way it is.

The last time we won the Super Bowl, which was the first time we won the Super Bowl, the entire teams was ready before we discovered we had a QB. It's funny how we got lucky just when everything else was prepared perfectly for a stroke of luck. Kinda reminds me of the old saying, "the harder I work the luckier I get." Kurt Warner was setup for success. Given those dazzling weapons and a superb OC, it would have been difficult for Kurt not to fall into the pit of success.

I am very sorry to say this, but 10 years later the story is entirely different. We are trying to go in absolute reverse. We are starting with a premium grade QB and we have nothing else. We have a shitty line, shitty receivers, an absolute turd of an offensive coordinator, and a surgically repaired RB. Believe me, my blood runs cold as I say this, but poor Sam is not setup for success as Kurt Warner was. That is an obvious and self-evident statement. No contest must be the plead.

This is my mood. This is the mood of the Ram-fans I know. I know of a few cheerleaders on the Bleecher Report who believe firmly in Devaney's actions and Sam's potential. Even these kiddies don't think Sam is a folk hero yet. They won't predict so much as a break-even record for the Rams in the 2010 season

Once again: This is not Sam's fault. I am not saying that he is to blame for any of this. I am not saying he is a failure already. I am telling you Devaney's rebuilding program is cracked. I am telling you that none of us expect a winning record or anything close to it in 2010. We are expecting hard times ahead. We hope Sam will survive this season uninjured. That is our first and best hope.

Where is the folk hero in that story? Where is the hero worship? Where is the adulation? Where is the adoration? I am sure he is getting some attention, but I think these statements are dramatically overblown. I haven't got the foggiest notion of what Sam Wyche is talking about. He is speaking of some other situation, certainly not the Rams.

Oh, so now McNabb is headed to St. Louis again?

After being headed to Cleveland, Oakland, Buffalo, Minnesota, and parts unknown, it appears that Donovan McNabb is headed back to St. Louis.

I've said it before and I will say it again: Mike Florio's street-cred is 0.0000. He is on the floor. We now believe that anything he says regarding this matter is far more likely to be invented bullshit than substantive rumor. Same thing for the rest of the media. Mike, you need to quit. Just pack up and leave your job. Take up Amish Farming. Your invention and manufacture of McNabb trade-rumors has utterly destroyed your credibility as a journalist. Your situation is beyond repair. Just pack it in and call it quits before they toss you out.

This should serve as a warning to Steve Wyche and Jason La Canfora who like to dabble in these inventions and fabrications as well.

I will say this again also; The three biggest lies in the world are:

• The check is in the mail
• Donovan McNabb is about to be traded
• I promise not to cum in your mouth

I can't wait for opening day 2010. When Donovan McNabb takes his position under the Eagles' center, I am going to unload on all you faggots. You are going to take the biggest ass-whipping of your entire lives. You can take it anyway you want to take. You can kick and scream. You can take it with dignity, but come hell or high water you are going to take it.

If he was, they would

I think Marc Bulger is finished as the Rams QB. I do not say that with any pleasure or anger. Regret over what might have been is the primary feeling. My statement is just a recognition of the unfortunate fact. But Coach Spagnuolo just said he is still on the roster and it is premature to make any moves at the QB position? I agree that it is premature to release Bulger. There is no reason to rush and do this unfortunate thing immediately. However, the lack of speed in releasing Bulger doesn't tell you anything about the Rams' 2010 roster.

Steve Wyche wrote a nice piece for the NFL's main website following up on a video report that he did for the NFL Network. The key quote is simple: "...coach Steve Spagnuolo or general manager Billy Devaney haven't said Bulger is their guy. If he was, they would."

Like Wyche, I doubt Bulger will line up at QB for the Rams in 2010. There are some scenarios where it could happen:

1. Philly won't trade Vick
2. Philly asks for a King's random
3. We don't have a rookie we can play

Scenario 3 is the most unlikely scenario of them all, so scratch that off the list now. With a dogshit offensive line and a thin receiver corp, playing any rookie would border on suicidal insanity. I don't care if we select Bradford, Tebow or McCoy. No rookie can play behind our line. We can't protect him, period. It would be damn stupid to try that... but then again, it is stupid to try Bulger again in this role after he just suffered a broken leg last year.

Pondering all these chess pieces on the board, I grow more and more convinced that Rams will try to work a deal for Vick. He is the best looking solution for 2010, and he helps us to engineer our future in the several ways I spelled out yesterday.

The only real alternative is to try to make due with Keith Null. I wouldn't mind giving the kid a chance... but it sure ain't much of chance. It's a lousy chance if you ask me. It seems to me it would be more like feeding the young man to the lions, tigers and bears. It would also result in another loss-heavy season where we are no where close to the break-even point.