I demand a recount! Quarterbacks in the 1st round over the past 30 years.

I made the following statement many times on my blog: Quarterbacks selected in the 1st round have only a 33% chance of success in the NFL. This is based on the assessment that 33% of the QBs selected in the 1st round over the past 30 years were ultimately successful in the NFL.

Well, I am afraid I must print a retraction. I was wrong. It's worse than I originally thought. I collected the data afresh, and reconsidered the information I found there. After serious consideration, and a fresh recount, the score is as follows. Quarterbacks were selected between 1979 and 2007. Of those 67, 20 were ultimately successful, 39 were busts, 8 were fair-to-middlin' journeymen in the league. This means the following:

• 29.85% of the quarterbacks selected in the 1st round were successful
• 58.21% were all-out busts
• 11.94% were middle-of-the-road journeymen

This is bad, very bad. I don't wish to labor the point anymore. Instead, I want to publish the raw table of information, so you yourself can consider the merits of my assessment.

#	Name	School	Year	Team	Overall	Rating
1	Jack Thompason	Washington State	1979	Bengals	3	Bust
2	Phil Simms	Morehead State	1979	Giants	7	Success
3	Steve Fuller	Clemson	1979	Chiefs	23	Bust
4	Marc Wilson	BYU	1980	Raiders	15	Bust
5	Mark Malone	Arizona State	1980	Steelers	28	Bust
6	Rich Campbell	California	1981	Packers	6	Bust
7	Dave Wilson	Illinois	1981	Saints	Supplemental	Bust
8	Art Schlichter	Ohio State	1982	Colts	4	Bust
9	Jim McMahon	BYU	1982	Bears	5	Success
10	John Elway	Stanford	1983	Colts	1	Success
11	Todd Blackledge	Penn State	1983	Chiefs	7	Bust
12	Jim Kelly	Miami	1983	Bills	14	Success
13	Tony Eason	Illinois	1983	Patriots	15	Bust
14	Ken O'Brien	UC Davis	1983	Jets	24	Success
15	Dan Marino	Pittsburg	1983	Dolphins	27	Success
16	Bernie Kosar	Miami	1985	Browns	Supplemental	Success
17	Jim Everett	Purdue	1986	Oilers	3	Success
18	Chuck Long	Iowa	1986	Lions	12	Bust
19	Vinny Testaverde	Miami	1987	Buccaneers	1	Middle
20	Kelly Stouffer	Colorado State	1987	Cardinals	6	Bust
21	Chris Miller	Oregon	1987	Falcons	13	Success
22	Jim Harbaugh	Michigan	1987	Bears	26	Middle
23	Troy Aikman	UCLA	1989	Cowboys	1	Success
24	Steve Walsh	Miami	1989	Cowboys	Supplemental	Bust
25	Timm Rosenbach	Washington State	1989	Cardinals	Supplemental	Bust
26	Jeff George	Illinois	1990	Colts	1	Bust
27	Andre Ware	Houston	1990	Lions	7	Bust
28	Dan McGwire	San Diego State	1991	Seahawks	16	Bust
29	Todd Marinovich	USC	1991	Raiders	24	Bust
30	David Klingler	Houston	1992	Bengals	6	Bust
31	Tommy Maddox	UCLA	1992	Broncos	25	Bust
32	Dave Brown	Duke	1992	Giants	Supplemental	Bust
33	Drew Bledsoe	Washington State	1993	Patriots	1	Success
34	Rick Mirer	Notre Dame	1993	Seahawks	2	Bust
35	Heath Shuler	Tennessee	1994	Redskins	3	Bust
36	Trent Dilfer	Fresno State	1994	Buccaneers	6	Middle
37	Steve McNair	Alcorn State	1995	Oilers	3	Success
38	Kerry Colins	Penn State	1995	Panthers	5	Middle
39	Jim Druckenmiller	Virgina Tech	1997	49ers	26	Bust
40	Peyton Manning	Tennessee	1998	Colts	1	Success
41	Ryan Leaf	Washington State	1998	Chargers	2	Bust
42	Tim Couch	Kentucky	1999	Browns	1	Bust
43	Donovan McNabb	Syracuse	1999	Eagles	2	Success
44	Akili Smith	Oregon	1999	Bengals	3	Bust
45	Daunte Culpepper	Central Florida	1999	Vikings	11	Bust
46	Cade McNown	UCLA	1999	Bears	12	Bust
47	Chad Pennington	Marshall	2000	Jets	18	Middle
48	Michael Vick	Virgina Tech	2001	Falcons	1	Middle
49	David Carr	Fresno State	2002	Texans	1	Bust
50	Joey Harrington	Oregon	2002	Lions	3	Bust
51	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	2002	Redskins	32	Bust
52	Carson Palmer	USC	2003	Bengals	1	Middle
53	Byron Leftwich	Marshall	2003	Jaguars	7	Bust
54	Kyle Boller	California	2003	Ravens	19	Bust
55	Rex Grossman	Florida	2003	Bears	22	Bust
56	Eli Manning	Ole Miss	2004	Chargers	1	Success
57	Philip Rivers	North Carolina State	2004	Giants	4	Success
58	Ben Roethlisberger	Miami of Ohio	2004	Steelers	11	Success
59	J.P. Losman	Tulane	2004	Bills	22	Bust
60	Alex Smith	Utah	2005	49ers	1	Bust
61	Aaron Rodgers	California	2005	Packers	24	Success
62	Jason Campbell	Alburn	2005	Redskins	25	Bust
63	Vince Young	Texas	2006	Titans	3	Success
64	Matt Leinart	USC	2006	Cardinals	10	Middle
65	Jay Cutler	Vanderbilt	2006	Broncos	11	Success
66	JaMarcus Russell	LSU	2007	Raiders	1	Bust
67	Brady Quinn	Notre Dame	2007	Browns	22	Bust
						39	20	8
						58.21%	29.85%	11.94%

Honestly, I see only one disputable case on this list. I rank Carson Palmer as a middle guy. Bengals fans would complain. The fact is that he sat for year to start his career. Things looked good for a short time. Then the knee injury struck. Things have not been the same since. The Bengals' passing attack fell precipitously last year. Many are asking questions.

Less than zero credence?

Last night on ESPN's NFL Live, the guys discussed Coach Bill Bellichick's dinner with Tim Tebow. Bellichick heaped praise on Tebow afterward. Just what does this mean? Does this mean the Patriots will be drafting Tebow and grooming him as Brady's eventual replacement in their Spread-like offense?

Marcellus Wiley and Mark Sclereth didn't think so at all. Wiley said that pre-draft official visits should be given less zero credence when it comes to assessing a teams interest. He sited his own story as a perfect example. The Bills drafted him site-unseen in the 2nd round. They never spoke with him prior to the draft. They didn't come to his ProDay. They never called his agent. They never invited him to Bills' HQ. They never even had the team doctor look at him. They just drafted him. This is the clandestine nature of the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

The received wisdom is that the 30 official visits are mostly burned on subterfuge & decoys. Teams are playing the cards close to the vest, not showing their hands. A nice pro-point can be found in last year's draft. The Rams burned one of their official 30 team visits on Mark Sanchez. We signaled that we were interested. We passed him by. Everybody knew we were just manipulating the Jets.

I would add a couple of modifiers on this. Teams do scout their first rounders with these offiicial team visits, especially when they are destined to become super-high first rounders. If you look at every #1 overall pick for the past 30 seasons, he visited the team that drafted him. He might not have played for that team, but he visited with the team that drafted him.

The second modifier I would tag on is that teams are quite deceptive about their 2nd and 3rd round preferences. Almost every team will get a crack at your 2nd and 3rd round selections once or twice. All of your divisional opponents will have an opportunity to practice the strategy of denial. The Patriots have many enemies in the AFC. There is no profit in tipping your hand to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Chargers. Some of these teams would be inclined to take a prospect off the board if they knew the Patriots were interested.

Consider this example. Suppose the Patriots are seriously considering making a small move up to acquire Earl Thomas or Eric Berry on draft day. It could happen. The Patriots need a lot of defensive help. They have not replaced Rodney Harrison. Suppose Berry goes quickly as expected. Strange picks happen. The Raiders do something stupid. Earl Thomas begins to slide. The Steelers are on the clock with #17. They hear the Patriots are negotiating with the Falcons, and they have heard the name Earl Thomas in the mix. The Steelers have a strong need for a corner, and somebody who can sub for Troy Palamalu. They are also sweet on Maurkice Pouncey. Knowing the Patriots are making a move to acquire Thomas, would the Steelers fill their need in the Secondary first? I suspect they would. You screw the Patriots and fill your need at the same time. This is a double bonus.

This is why there is so much stealth and deception surrounding later picks. This is why you guard those 2nd rounders particularly close to the vest.

So what does this principle indicate for a Ram fan? Don't place too much credence in Colt McCoy's visit. Also, don't place much credence in the Rams' apparent total lack of interest in Tim Tebow. I know for a fact we are seriously considering Sam Bradford, and at the same time I know for a fact that we would deal that pick in a split-instant if a good trade is offered. It could go either way on draft day. If we deal that pick, we are looking for a QB in the 2nd round or later; most probably the 2nd round. Suppose this is a Marcellus Wiley situation? Who do we take at #33 or #37 or #38?

If you doubt this scenario, consider this video, just posted today where Sam Bradford indicates that the Rams have not tipped their hand to him, and he is still in the dark about where he is going to go come draft day.

On the one hand, I am disappointed that we are deceptively signalling Colt McCoy. The Rams did not attend the UT ProDay yesterday, which I consider a mistake. There were a lot of prospects there to see. Now we are using one of our 30 visits on a presumptive 2nd round pick? Under the Schlereth-Willey law, what does this tell you? We're wasting Colt's time. We're just playing the game. This is unfortunate. Colt McCoy is a serious prospect, and deserves some respect as such. I do like the kid a hell of a lot.

However, you know I like Tebow just a little bit better. Since Tebow is a presumptive 2nd rounder, I am glad we are signalling no interest at this moment. Things still might go well for us.

Oh, so now Florio is taking a stab at McShay?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/31/todd-mcshay-backlash-builds/

In one of the most bluntly crafted hit-pieces written since I myself last took up the keyboard, Mike Florio just took a wild stab at Todd McShay. His points are as follows:

1. McShay mislead Jevan Snead into entering the draft
2. McShay is bad, Kiper is good.
3. McShay is bad because he has no connections, and he doesn't like Clausen
4. Kiper is good because he works hard, and does like Clausen
5. The best amateur draftnik is Mike Mayock

HAHAHAHhaahahahaha! Oh bouy! Where or where do I begin deconstructing this pile of shit??? So many choices, so little time. This has to be one of the most topsy-turvy, upside down, ass-backwards, perversions I've read in years! Almost every aspect of this hit piece is entirely wrong, but then again, so too are the McNabb rumors and the Tebow rumors. Fabrications, one and all.

For the record, allow me to state the following:

1. Since the day Jevan Snead entered the draft, persistent reports have held that Snead had trouble with his grades. College was not his strong suit. Some reports stated Snead was close to loosing his athletic eligibility due to academic probation. I seem to recall reading this on Mel Kiper's ESPN blog, as well as other places.
2. Although I am not hyper about either of these two 'scouts', McShay is much better and Kiper Jr is a lot worse. All you have to do to prove this case is go through Kiper Jr.'s words on the numerous (39) all-out-bust QBs in the 1st around of the draft over the past 30 years. There's your proof. McShay doesn't have a deep track record, but he is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
3. The greatest single feather in McShay's cap is that he is not going along with the Jimmy Clausen rubbish. If I object to his ratings of Clausen, I object to the fact that he has not gone far enough in critiquing this kid. Everyone stops with the intangibles. You should go further than that. I don't believe the kid has the level of talent everyone says he does. The Pro-System he comes from did little to help Brady Quinn, a more athletic QB candidate, to succeed in this league. Clausen is an obvious bust risk, but no one speaks openly about his risk factors. Clausen is vastly more risky than McShay leads one to believe.
4. Kiper is good because he works hard and likes Clausen??? NO, NO,NO, NO! Well, I respect the work, but he is absolutely and completely wrong about Clausen. Clausen is a true junior from an mediocre program. If he is drafted in the 1st round, the actuarial tables predict he has a 90% chance of going bust. That is way to high a risk for me. Florio could not be more wrong. He is just as wrong and wrong can be here. Florio must have come from Notre Dame or something. I understand he is an Italian Lawyer from West Virginia and life long fan of the Vikings. They don't say where he got his degree, though.
5. Mike Mayock is no amateur. Mike Mayock is the draft scout for NFL Films. He is the guy who does most of the scouting for the NFL Network. Calling Mike Mayock an amateur draftnik is like calling Chief Justice John Roberts an amateur lawnik. Jesus is that bogus! Furthermore, if Florio ever watched the NFL Network, he would know that Mayock says many of the same things McShay says about Clausen. He's a little less blunt about it, but he raises very similar concerns. Like McShay, Mayock doesn't go far enough in stating the risks associated with Clausen's profile.

We should note in passing that an unnamed source is attributed with all of these comments, but I don't believe that for a moment. Florio crafted this piece ex-nillo, as has done in so many other cases.

One final point, I want it to be known that I am a fan of Jevan Snead. I think he has a lot more athletic ability than Clausen does. Somebody is going to get a real steal in this kid. I saw a couple of his better games against Tennessee and LSU, and I was impressed. That blood-bath in the Cotton Bowl aught to be called The Body Bag Game II. I don't hold that one against him, sometimes all you can do is win, and he did.

It should be noted that Snead took one of the most vicious hits in College Football history in that Cotton Bowl game. Not only did he come back in a few minutes and play again, he actually played better after the hit! He'll never have to prove his manhood in any other way.

The one question about Jevan, and its a big one, is his intellect. Does he have the brain of an NFL QB? Given the complexity and deception of NFL defensive schemes these day, every NFL Quarterback has to be pretty damn smart. You also have to be studious, disciplined and diligent in your mental preparation. This preparation does resemble academic work, but the subject is a lot more fun. I hold out the possibility that Snead's mental effort will rise the moment he is able to work exclusively with the subject he loves: Football.

Oh so there is no front runner in the 'race' for McNabb?

I knew it all along. You wanna know how I knew? It's really quite simple. You can't have a front runner if there is no race in the first place. Since there is no race for McNabb, there can be no front runner. It's like asking about the current king of France, stupid!

I've been on the record since the beginning of this McNabb season, telling you all of these reports are absolute bullshit. People are just trying to invent soap opera drama to keep themselves employed during this off season. All of these reports are free-form creative nonsense flowing from the imaginations of sports writers around the country. There is not one shred of evidence or proof for any of these rumors. These are invented fabrications that defy all common football sense.

The second the Eagles lose McNabb, by whatever means, they will instantly be in rebuilding or transition mode. Take if from me, when the Rams lost Jim Everett (another disappointing guy with a ton of talent) we were in an ugly rebuilding mode for some 5 years. This is why you will not see a McNabb deal in 2010. At the end of the 2010 season, the Eagles will be negotiating with their free-agent QB (McNabb) to see if they can retain his services. The Vikings will win that bought.

Oakland was the latest candidate for McNabb, a rumor I found incredibly dubious from the beginning, given Al Davis's position on JaMarcus Russell. There is only one reason I paused for a split second upon hearing this rumor: The senility of Al Davis.

I rarely comment on the Raiders in this blog, a team I find greatly annoying. I will do so now. Al is one of the grant old men of football, but he is making decisions with his last 5 active brain cells. He hovers between 5th and 6th stage dementia all day long as a consequence of advancing Alzheimer's disease. He's in bad shape. He cannot walk without help now. We see him in a motor scooter most of the time. He has made a few absolutely crazy moves in recent seasons; things that just cannot be explained without recourse to Alzheimer's disease.

It was for this reason that paused... but only for one split second. Now that rumor is falling apart. It's all a bunch of damn lies.

I wish the Raiders well. We need the bad guys back. However, they will not get better until Al either dies, or until he hands the reins over to young, talented, smart, ambitious empire builder.

Sam Bradford's Pro-Day. See you in St. Louis?

So by now we have all heard that Sam Bradford lit everyone's fire at his ProDay in Norman Oklahoma. He shot 62 for 63, and a good pass was dropped. He executed 50 scripted plays and threw 13 passes from a fixed stance. Gil Brandt commented that it was the best performance by a QB candidate since Troy Aikman. That is powerful praise.

Congratulations are in order, and I still think it is a bad fit. You can't throw this kid in the shark tank behind our offensive line and expect good things. The order of operations we must go through is critical, just as in calculus. We need to build our offensive line first, and then draft a QB. The Jets were successful last season with Mark Sanchez because they went through precisely this order of operations. They built the best line in football, and then they drafted their rookie. Guess what? He did okay, even prospering a bit towards the end.

If we are haunted by the spectre of QBs we passed up, we need not be. Neither Matt Ryan nor Mark Sanchez would been successful behind our offensive line. Arguing that we should not have passed on them is rank foolishness.

When we acquired Jim Everett we had the best offensive line in professional football. We three guys who routinely started in the Pro-Bowl. I'm speaking of Jackie Slater, Dennis Harrah, and Dough Smith. We lost Kent Hill in the deal we made with the Oilers. Irv Panky wasn't bad either. We had a line that drove Eric Dickerson to 2,105 yards. When Kurt Warner blew up in 1999, we had a very good offensive line. Good enough to win the Super Bowl.

The only reason Steven Jackson hasn't rushed for 2153 yards is that he doesn't have a line.

Drafting Bradford is just not the right move right now. This is no reflection of Sam. Sam is worth the pick. If we had a quality line, I would draft Sam immediately. We do not have a quality line. A young QB needs an OL like a fish needs water. A rookie QB and our offensive line will go together like Basketball and a Vasectomy.

From my perspective, the real value of what happened yesterday is this: We now have three interested parties buzzing about doing a deal to acquire Bradford. Those parties are the Washington Redskins, the Cleveland Browns, and now the Seattle Seahawks. I hope Devaney is a man of his word, and hope he is in contact with these parties,

Our best deal is probably with Cleveland, if we can swing it. We can probably swap 1sts, get a 2nd and a 3rd. We probably would probably swap 1sts and acquire a 2nd from Washington. Whilst I am not delighted by the prospect of dealing Bradford to the Seahawks, I do covet Coach Carroll's two 1st rounders. He better know it is going to cost him if he wants do do business within the NFC West.

In any of these cases, we can put together the picks to fix our terrible offensive line, and we can add 'skilled players' as well. I still think this is the way we should go.

Sam Bradford & Todd McShay
Sam Bradford & Mike Mayock

NFL Total Access Debate
Sam Bradford on Path to the Draft
Pete Carroll on Sam Bradford
Mike Holmgren on Sam Bradford
D'Marco Farr predicts Sam Bradford

Let's hope it's all combat deception

'Tis the season for lies, damn lies, innuendo, carefully nuanced leading statements, subterfuge, and outright deception. We're just over three weeks away from the 2010 NFL draft.

Most authorities believe that my Rams are going to take Sam Bradford. It's not without cause. Devaney seems to be giving them significant reasons to think so. Let's hope it's all combat deception.

Do you remember last year's draft? The Rams were doing everything possible to trade out of the #2 spot. We needed more help than that. As history now proves, the Jets were angling to move up in the draft and select a QB; Mark Sanchez to be more precise. He is now in a Jets uniform, so there is your proof. We were talking deal with the Jets from early on. As the march to the draft wore on, the Jets became increasingly confident that Sanchez would not be selected between #2 and #5. Ergo, there was no need to pay through the nose for the #2 pick.

The Jets began talking deal with the Browns. The Rams signaled that they would not be undersold. The Jets still lacked interest. The #2 pick gets a lot more cash than the #5 pick, especially if he just happens to be a QB.

In a last gasp move to salvage the deal, the Rams brought Mark Sanchez to St. Louis, burning one of our 30 official visits, and giving him a royal welcome. We began signalling that we would take Sanchez. The Jets smelled bullshit. They just didn't believe it. We had insisted that Bulger would be our starter in 2010, even to the point where Coach Spagnuolo met with Marc and gave him a personal guarantee of his status. Frankly, it was too late in the process to begin running the deception play. If we had wanted to do that successfully, we should have begun early, and signaled often that we were in the mood for a QB.

Guess what? This just might be what we are doing in 2010. Consider the following:

• Marc Bulger cleaned out his locker almost 2 months ago.
• We have not resigned Kyle Boller
• We signed A.J. Feely, and he is no starter.
• We still have Keith Null, but few NFL insiders yet view him as anything significant. They could be wrong, but has no standing at the moment.
• We have met extensively with Sam Bradford
• We interviewed his Doctor
• We have opened negotiations with his agent
• We will be at Bradford's ProDay today
• We will host him in St. Louis soon
• All of the NFL Insiders such as Schefter, La Canfora, Chris Mortensen, Alex Marvez and John Clayton seem certain we are taking Bradford
• All of draftnics like Mike Mayock, Mike Lombardi, Charles Davis, Bucky Brooks, Corey Chavous, Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr think we are taking Bradford
• Cleveland is rumored to be interested in Bradford. In fact this is more than a rumor, we have heard it right from Mike Holmgren's mouth. He has also stated he is willing to work a draft deal to move up and take Bradford.
• Washington is rumored to be interested in Bradford, although they are playing their cards close to their chest.
• Billy Devaney has been video taped on the NFL Network stating that he would love to deal the #1 pick and restock the team quicker.

So you put Devaney and Holmgren on the phone together and watch them make sweet music together. But all of this predicated on the strong strategic probability that the Rams will be selecting Bradford. If there is no credible threat that we will select Bradford, there is no need to negotiate with the Rams for Bradford. Allow the Rams to take Gerald McCoy, and consider making a deal with Tampa. It would be cheaper to go that route. If neither the Redskins nor the Browns believe the Rams are selecting Bradford, the deal falls apart.

I hope and I pray that this is just a case where Devaney began his deception ploy early enough for it work. I hope and I pray he is sending one false signal after another to prod Holmgren into make a deal. We don't have to make it that expensive for Holmgren either. Of course, it would be lovely if Shanahan shows some interest as well. This would heat the market, increasing the chance of a sale.

So what if the Rams make a deal with the Browns and get a 1-2, or even a 1-2-3. Well, I'll restate the program again. If we get a 1-2 from the Browns we will hold the #7, #33, #38 picks. If it were my call, I would do the following:

• #7 Trent Williams OT Oklahoma
• #33 Maurkice Pouncey C/G Florida
• #38 Tim Tebow QB Florida

That would be my call. If you take Williams, and if Pouncey falls to us in the 2nd, I think we just got the two best offensive linemen in this entire draft. When history is written, I think these two guys will become the two most decorated offensive linemen from this draft. You add those two solid rookies to our existing two solid linement (Jason Brown and Jason Smith) and then our offensive line problems suddenly evaporate. Now we have a solid line for both Steve Jackson and a rookie QB.

You know what I think about Tebow.

So why Tebow and not Bradford? Toughness. Recently, I heard Charley Casserly declare that the most under-rated attribute of a championship QB is physical and mental toughness. The quarterback gets hit on every play. He has to be able to take that beating without sustaining massive injuries, or loosing his confidence.

For any fan of the Rams, the significance and power of that point cannot be overstated. You know why this is important.

So let's hope this is all combat deception, or we are in for a lot of trouble. In my minds eye, I can clearly see Bradford behind Jason Brown against the 49ers. Mike Singletary loads the cannons and sends a maximum blitz over our left side. Alex Barron misses his block completely, as he so often does. Bradford is crushed from the blindside, and driven down on his surgically repaired shoulder. He has another 3rd degree sprain of the Acromo-Clavicular join with 3 torn ligaments. That's all she wrote: That is the end of the 2010 campaign. See you next year folks.

However, we should be prepared for Devaney to carry out the fake to the ultimate limit, perhaps even selecting Bradford on Thursday evening, just to turn around and pull an Eli Manning job. That's what it just might take to flush Cleveland and Washington out of the woods and make one make a deal.

It was good to see Torry Holt on NFL Total Access last night

Torry Holt made a guest appearance on NFL Total Access over the course of the past two days, perhaps trying out for a new position he may eventually take. I sure hope we resign him in St. Louis. We need him. I don't understand why we released him in the first place, and it is not as if we have an abundance of weapons to work with offensively. Politics will probably keep him from rejoining the team, but I would take him back in a heart beat if I was the GM.

The most interesting feature of Torry's appearance was his Mock Draft. I had no idea that Torry was a draftnick to any degree whatsoever. It turns out that the two of us saw eye-to-eye on all points except one or two. What were these points:

1. The Rams should not and will not select a QB with the #1 pick.
2. Holt says we will select Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma, not Sam Bradford of Oklahoma.
3. McCoy will be the selection because coach Spagnuolo is a defensive coordinator at heart, and wants to improve the speed of the DL.
4. Holt is concerned about the double injury and surgical repair of Bradford's throwing shoulder
5. Holt clearly stated that the Rams offensive line does not do a good job of protecting the QB, and putting and injury prone rookie behind that line is very bad idea.
6. Holt did not have any Quarterback going in the top 10 picks in this year's draft.
7. When called on this point, Holt answered that he did not believe either of the two candidates were worthy of being drafted in the top 10.
8. When Fran Charles pressed him on the question of the Rams selecting a QB, Torry said "Not this year."
9. When asked who would be the quarterback in St. Louis, Holt insisted that Bulger is a fully qualified franchise quarterback. The Rams' focus should be on getting Marc his confidence back.
10. And now for the bad one... Torry said that if he were going to draft a QB #1 overall, it would not be Bradford, but Clausen.

Egads no! I would let Torry draft if he were planning to take Gerald McCoy but I would jerk the rains in if he were going to reach for Clausen. No, no, no, no to Clausen. This is the one point where Torry and I really part company.

I considered Torry's words carefully, because it accords with some of my ruminations. I know for a fact that Coach Spags was most impressed with McCoy. He made no secret of this fact, saying so to the St. Louis press. Since this time, Ndomukong Suh has been mildly annoyed whenever the name Steve Spagnuolo comes up. I get the impression, Ndamukong Suh believes he will be passed over because Steve likes McCoy better. Torry's prediction of McCoy is in-line with Spagnuolo's thinking. If there is a risk here, it lies only in the bet that Spagnuolo will have his way. Certainly, both Mike Mayock and Charlie Casserly believe McCoy is better that Suh. I am in the uncomfortable position of concurring with Mel Kiper Jr's take. I like Suh.

Certainly, I will not be pissed off if we take McCoy. Rather, I will be entirely relieved. I believe Chris Long & Adam Carriker will prosper next to McCoy. That is important to me. I haven't said much about Gerald McCoy, but I do believe he is totally worthy candidate. McCoy has no real history of injuries, as do Suh and Bradford, and he is a performer.

If I am skeptical of McCoy, it's only because he has been in an attack scheme at Oklahoma. He has been told to shoot the gaps on every play. They ordered him to penetrate the backfield with abandon. Ergo McCoy looks like the more disruptive force. Put McCoy in a conservative scheme like Nebraska, and he won't look like that massively disruptive force. Remember, I know little something about this. I am a nose tackle. I believe Suh can shoot the gaps and be a disruptive force just like McCoy. Suh has had the disadvantage of coming from a sit-and-read scheme at Nebraska. Suh has not been allowed to penetrate and disrupt on every play. However, this is no big deal. All you have to do is tell Suh to attack and he will do what McCoy does. Maybe even a little bit more.

What are the odds that all teams in the top 10 pass on a QB? I would say slim and none. If Bradford falls to the Redskins, I find it difficult to believe they will pass. If Bradford falls to the Browns, I find it almost impossible to believe they will pass. If Bradford falls to the Bills, I think there is no doubt they will take him. It is possible that the Rams and Skins will pass, but after that, I think Bradford goes off the board to Cleveland.

I do think Clausen will fall out of the top 10... if any of these teams know what's good for them... which is unlikely. Regrettably, I could see the Bills wasting more years on Clausen. That would be unfortunate. I don't like that idea at all.

But I have evaded the key question: Will the Rams pass on Sam Bradford. I really hope so. This is nothing against Sam Bradford. As I have said many times, I think he is a terrific kid with a bright future ahead of him... as long as he has a steel reinforced concrete offensive line. This line does not exist in St. Louis. We are not ready to select a starting rookie QB. We need to go for a QB in a lower round, and develop him for year or two, until the line is read. You know who I am talking about.

What then are the Rams doing interviewing Bradford, Clausen, McCoy and Suh? Why does the entire organization signal Bradford? I have ruminated on this many, many hours. I think think the answer is three fold.

1. Has the organization signaled Bradford? Not precisely. They are seriously evaluating him, but there has been no super-provocative move, other than skipping Florida's ProDay. That was provocative, but not super-provocative. What you have is a case where a lot of media experts are signalling Bradford.
2. By interviewing all four, and opening preliminary negotiations with all four, the Rams may be attempting to drive a certain kind of a bidding war. They may be trying to find out which player will sign the cheapest. Good luck with this. You may save a milion, or two. You may also still windup spending $60m.
3. By allowing the speculation on Bradford, and by hearting it up a bid, the Rams may be igniting a match under Holmgren & Shanahan's asses. They may yet smoke out an interest in Sam Bradford and force a trade. Holmgren has already told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he is inclined to make a trade to obtain Sam Bradford.

Anyhow, that is my two cents. Torry Holt's prediction that the Rams will select McCoy is solid. It could happen. We might even select McCoy and McCoy, going for two real McCoys in two rounds. It could happen.