Marcellus Wiley and Mark Sclereth didn't think so at all. Wiley said that pre-draft official visits should be given less zero credence when it comes to assessing a teams interest. He sited his own story as a perfect example. The Bills drafted him site-unseen in the 2nd round. They never spoke with him prior to the draft. They didn't come to his ProDay. They never called his agent. They never invited him to Bills' HQ. They never even had the team doctor look at him. They just drafted him. This is the clandestine nature of the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
The received wisdom is that the 30 official visits are mostly burned on subterfuge & decoys. Teams are playing the cards close to the vest, not showing their hands. A nice pro-point can be found in last year's draft. The Rams burned one of their official 30 team visits on Mark Sanchez. We signaled that we were interested. We passed him by. Everybody knew we were just manipulating the Jets.
I would add a couple of modifiers on this. Teams do scout their first rounders with these offiicial team visits, especially when they are destined to become super-high first rounders. If you look at every #1 overall pick for the past 30 seasons, he visited the team that drafted him. He might not have played for that team, but he visited with the team that drafted him.
The second modifier I would tag on is that teams are quite deceptive about their 2nd and 3rd round preferences. Almost every team will get a crack at your 2nd and 3rd round selections once or twice. All of your divisional opponents will have an opportunity to practice the strategy of denial. The Patriots have many enemies in the AFC. There is no profit in tipping your hand to the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Chargers. Some of these teams would be inclined to take a prospect off the board if they knew the Patriots were interested.
Consider this example. Suppose the Patriots are seriously considering making a small move up to acquire Earl Thomas or Eric Berry on draft day. It could happen. The Patriots need a lot of defensive help. They have not replaced Rodney Harrison. Suppose Berry goes quickly as expected. Strange picks happen. The Raiders do something stupid. Earl Thomas begins to slide. The Steelers are on the clock with #17. They hear the Patriots are negotiating with the Falcons, and they have heard the name Earl Thomas in the mix. The Steelers have a strong need for a corner, and somebody who can sub for Troy Palamalu. They are also sweet on Maurkice Pouncey. Knowing the Patriots are making a move to acquire Thomas, would the Steelers fill their need in the Secondary first? I suspect they would. You screw the Patriots and fill your need at the same time. This is a double bonus.
This is why there is so much stealth and deception surrounding later picks. This is why you guard those 2nd rounders particularly close to the vest.
So what does this principle indicate for a Ram fan? Don't place too much credence in Colt McCoy's visit. Also, don't place much credence in the Rams' apparent total lack of interest in Tim Tebow. I know for a fact we are seriously considering Sam Bradford, and at the same time I know for a fact that we would deal that pick in a split-instant if a good trade is offered. It could go either way on draft day. If we deal that pick, we are looking for a QB in the 2nd round or later; most probably the 2nd round. Suppose this is a Marcellus Wiley situation? Who do we take at #33 or #37 or #38?
If you doubt this scenario, consider this video, just posted today where Sam Bradford indicates that the Rams have not tipped their hand to him, and he is still in the dark about where he is going to go come draft day.
On the one hand, I am disappointed that we are deceptively signalling Colt McCoy. The Rams did not attend the UT ProDay yesterday, which I consider a mistake. There were a lot of prospects there to see. Now we are using one of our 30 visits on a presumptive 2nd round pick? Under the Schlereth-Willey law, what does this tell you? We're wasting Colt's time. We're just playing the game. This is unfortunate. Colt McCoy is a serious prospect, and deserves some respect as such. I do like the kid a hell of a lot.
However, you know I like Tebow just a little bit better. Since Tebow is a presumptive 2nd rounder, I am glad we are signalling no interest at this moment. Things still might go well for us.
