Saturday, January 1, 2011

How about that Tebow?


I’ve been meaning to write this column for the better part of a week now, but it’s been a very busy time. I spent a good chunk of this holiday at home in Fresno California with the family, and my brother came down to L.A. to visit afterward. I didn’t want to do a half-ass job on this entry.

Tim had his first 300 yard game

For those who don’t know it, Tim Tebow just had his first 300 yard game against the Houston Texans. He shot 16/29 for 308 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This yields him and NFL QB rating of 89.44, and an NCAA rating of 148.869. The formulas are different. He also ran 10 times for 27 yards and a touchdown. His long was 11 yards for the TD, so can see in the statistics that he was mostly running to avoid pressure. Most importantly, his offense put 24 points on the score board and won the game.

So Tim is back up to his old tricks again. For those who don’t know it, Tim had a career NCAA passer rating of 175. That roughly translates to an NFL rating of 122. You should note that no NFL QB has ever had a rating of 122 over 4 or even 3 seasons. Tim did precisely this against the finest SEC, Big East, Big-12 and Big-10 defenses in the country. He threw those passes against defenses loaded with Sunday talent. He did that on route to two NCAA championships and a Heisman trophy. His achievements as an NCAA passer cannot be denied.

Of course, I am biased. I have called Tim Tebow the son I never had. You know I love this kid. I temper those critiques with this point: There is a reason I adopted this kid. Getting your first victory and an 89.44 rating in just your second start is damn good for any QB. It took Sam until his 3rd start to get his first victory, and 7th start to get a passer rating over 89. Of course, Tim was going against the Texans’ defense, and he does have the NFL’s leading receiver to throw to.

Perplexed by the critics

I have to say, I continue to be perplexed by Tim Tebow’s doubters. For some utterly bizarre reason, they seem to think he can’t throw the football. I am absolutely sure I have no idea what the hell you guys are talking about. I am fairly sure that you are looking at some other kid named Tim Tebow, not the Tim Tebow. I keep hearing these utterly bizarre conversations about some H-Back or Tightend that came out in last year’s draft. This absolute non-sense is baffling. I have no idea where this talk comes from.

To straighten out the confusion on this subject, you must begin with one iron-clad law: Quarterback evaluators don’t know what the hell they are talking about. They are ignorant as fuck, as a rule. I am not just speaking of Tebow’s case. I am speaking of all cases, period. If they knew what they were talking about 70% of all can’t-miss QBs selected in the first round wouldn’t go bust. As I stated so many times last year, the 70% bust rate among first-round QBs is iron-clad proof that NFL Quarterback evaluators don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

You must admit, you’re 70% rate of failure is an absolutely damning statistic. If a QB missed on 70% of his passes and lost 70% of his starts, he would be a shitty QB indeed. You need to entertain the possibility that you are all quite shitty at evaluating QB prospects.

Michael Lombardi quoted Bill Walsh many times during the last draft cycle. His favorite quote was this: Very few men are qualified to evaluate the QB position, and even fewer are qualified to coach the QB. I will translate that for you: “Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN does not know what the hell he is talking about when he evaluates Tim Tebow.”

Lombardi is a very nice and diplomatic guy, and would never run the ragged edge of serrated knife through Kiper’s guts. I would, I have, and I will again. I rather enjoy it. I better cut Mel whilst I still can. He has vowed to retire soon due to the bust of Jimmy Clausen.

When you see Mel Kiper doing a QB evaluation, you must begin with the presupposition that he has a 70% chance of being wrong. You would also do well to presume that 70% of what he says is absolute bullshit. If you do not begin with these presuppositions, you are a fucking fool.

The Chargers are next

The Chargers are next. I live here in SoCal, and I hear quite a bit of Charger chat on the Radio. I can tell you that the Charger fans and the Charger coaching staff are concerned about this game. The fans don’t want to be embarrassed and neither Norv Turner no A.J. Smith want to end with a loss to the rudderless and ruined Broncos. Such a loss could be the last straw.

Most of the talk I hear is worried talk. The Chargers are worried about defending Tim Tebow. He does what Michael Vick does, and what Steve Young did. He takes the snap from shotgun and fades back to throw. You set yourself to defend the pass. He runs. Suddenly your defensive configuration is all wrong. This gives NFL DCs like Ron Rivera fits.