Monday, January 17, 2011

The correct ending to this fuke year

As you know, predictability in the NFL Playoff system has reached a point fairly close to ZERO. If every game were an upset, we would simply pick the team least likely to win under normal conditions. However, a few teams have won at home. A few higher seeds have taken down lower seeds. This greatly increases the noise in the system. The signal to noise ratio has almost bottomed out.

I am sure Las Vegas is awash in money. 2011 is already one hell of a good year for Vegas. Some poor benighted souls think Vegas only makes money if they pick the winners correctly. Not true. Perish the thought! Vegas makes money when more than 50% of the dollars wagered ride on a loosing proposition. This is a very different formula.

Speaking of putting money on a losing formula... Only a few stupid suckers put money down on the Jets yesterday. All the smart money was on the Patriots. This is why all the bookies in Vegas awoke this morning with happy Christmas smiles on their faces. They feel it is a great day to be alive and be an American. I'll tell you one thing: This is a great day to be alive and be an American if you are a heretic/apostate unbeliever in Jesus Bellichick.

But I digress... We're in trouble folks. Picking favorites in these conference championship games is going be a trecherous affair.

If we say that the best approach is to select by record, seed, and homefield advantage, the Bears play the Steelers in SB45. That is a dangerous pick in this year of the fluke. If we say that the worst possible approach is to chose by record and seed, the Packers play the Jets. Of course, this may yet happen in the year of the fluke. If we crosswire for the most powerful looking teams, we will probably chose the Packers and Steelers, in a battle of used-to-was dynasties in rather small markets.

Now if we chose for the most unlikely combo of teams possible, we will honor the year of the fluke, and pick the Bears vs Jets. Surely, this is a matchup that elitists like Colin Cowherd will utterly detest. These two teams have a total of two Lombardi trophies between them. They have done it, but they are two least storied franchises we have left. What mythological storylines of NFL Royalty and Nobility will the elitist tell in the two weeks leading up to the Bears v Jets?

Maybe they will declare that the meek have inherited the earth? You know the news guys are always praying for the big story. They are cheering for a good hype line.

On the other hand, New York will be battling Chicago, and that should generate plenty of ratings. The big city press machines are going to love that. In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, you should tell the story of the rivalry between New York and Chicago... not just in sports, but all things Americana. You can start with Pizza and work up to Steakhouses.

Of course, Los Angeles cannot participate because we just don't have any football teams here. Tough shit.

Do we dare to pick the Bears v Jets...?